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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (16 Viewers)
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Smokin Okie
Footballguy
How are we viewing Mike Williams in dynasty? Is he a guy we should be looking to sell high on? And if so what value should we get in return?
I had a guy offer me RB Javonte Williams in my dynasty league but I declined the offer.
I had a guy offer me RB Javonte Williams in my dynasty league but I declined the offer.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
If that was Javonte Williams for Mike Williams straight up, it would be a smash accept for me. I do view Mike Williams as a sell high. Contract year with a lot of injuries and past disappointment. If I found someone willing to meet me halfway between what he has done prior to this season and what he's doing this year, I would probably pull the trigger if I like what's coming back. Otherwise, if the offers aren't there, just hold and hope that the points keep rolling in. Eventually, someone will become convinced that it's permanent and value him as such. Chargers might do the same.
Smokin Okie
Footballguy
Well this makes me regret my decision of declining that offer.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
Who knows, maybe Mike Williams keeps it up and you will be glad that you did. Fantasypros expert consensus rankings aren't the final word, also there are a limited number of experts when it comes to in-season adjustments and there can be some significant lag, but they currently have Javonte at 31st overall and Mike Williams at 50th. That seems pretty reasonable to me, and I actually might be a little higher on Javonte considering Melvin Gordon should be out the door in 2022.
If you're genuinely second-guessing it and merely clicked the reject button without a written response, maybe send back an offer where you throw in a 4th rounder and and ask a 3rd rounder from him. They will probably just think you're negotiating and will probably jump at the counter-offer if Williams for Williams was their initial offer.
Also, this goes without saying, but trading Mike for Javonte assumes you have other decent options at WR for this season and aren't ravaging a team set to win a championship. It also assumes there's nothing radical like a start 1 RB, start 4 WR setup.
IMO, Mike > Javonte for 2021 since Gordon likely isn't going anywhere this year. However, I think you will be pretty happy with yourself in 2022 going forward with Javonte.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Atomic Punk
Footballguy
I’m taking a run at a championship and wanted Williams. I offered Aiyuk, JuJu and an early 2nd to a team that is in full rebuild. I thought I was over-paying but it was declined without a counter. Hard to tell what people are thinking about his value right now.
dipandglide
Footballguy
That’s wild. MW value is tough to gauge. I’d feel more comfortable holding if he broke out earlier and was a couple years younger.
I like MWill more than others. I would take JaVonte for him for sure if I were rebuilding. If I’m trying to win now, it depends on the rest of my roster.
I don’t have any concern about him now breaking out earlier. And I’m not any more concerned for injuries on him than I am any other player. He showed his skills from the beginning. He was the No. 7 overall pick. He’s had 10 TDs in a season and 1k yards in a season. To me, the only reason he didn’t break out before was injuries and the way he was being used. Now he’s being used right, and I expect that to continue. The elite talent has always been there.
JaVonte has got the goods. You can see that in his limited carries. But I don’t know that he’ll be the bellcow next year just because Gordon is gone. That doesn’t seem to be the Denver way.
I don’t have any concern about him now breaking out earlier. And I’m not any more concerned for injuries on him than I am any other player. He showed his skills from the beginning. He was the No. 7 overall pick. He’s had 10 TDs in a season and 1k yards in a season. To me, the only reason he didn’t break out before was injuries and the way he was being used. Now he’s being used right, and I expect that to continue. The elite talent has always been there.
JaVonte has got the goods. You can see that in his limited carries. But I don’t know that he’ll be the bellcow next year just because Gordon is gone. That doesn’t seem to be the Denver way.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I just saw him dealt for what will be a mid to late first. I suppose that was fair although I wouldn’t move Williams for it.Smokin Okie said:
BespokeJort
Footballguy
I’ve seen people insist I should be able to get Wilson for a 2nd for years but never seen it happen.
The Carr’s of the world are def cheap tho
Smokin Okie
Footballguy
My other WRs are Ridley, Lamb, Jefferson, and Toney and we have to start 3 WRs. I don't have great options at RB outside of Cook and Fournette. Mattison, Stevenson, and Penny are my backups.sushinsky4tsar said:
Mike Williams is just tough to gauge for me. Love the talent but afraid of the injury history but IF he returns to LAC how can you not love the upside of him playing with Herbert.
Smokin Okie
Footballguy
Another guy who is tough to gauge for me. All he does is produce but the future is cloudy in JAX. Will they have a new staff next year? Will Jrob be traded? You already mentioned the presence of ETN so can they coexist? I offered a early 1st round 2022 pick for him and was declined.
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sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
That's a really nice 1-3 WR core with an intriguing #4, and that's leaving Mike Williams out of the equation. However, if you're required to start 3 WR, 2RB, and then another 1-2 FLEX spots on top of that, it does change the equation a little bit towards the WR. To put it another away, I'm a smash accept Javonte in a start 2 RB-2WR-1FLEX. I still side with Javonte on start 2RB-3WR, since you might have something going with Toney in the FLEX, but I get the hesitation. Your 1-3 WRs have all completed their bye weeks, but assuming full health for the rest of the season on all three guys is a big ask. While Toney has a very intriguing skillset, it's probably too early to know that you can pencil him in as a weekly starter. So it sounds like it basically amounts to swapping Mike for Javonte in a flex starting position. That appears to be a downgrade for the remainder of 2021. On the flipside, your starting RB2 options aren't going to be great if Fournette goes down. Stevenson is intriguing long-term, but doesn't look like anything that can be trusted to even be active in 2021. Won't even comment on Penny.
I still prefer Javonte in this situation, but I get the hesitation. At least make sure that you've seen his 40-yard run against the Ravens before saying no. Also, I think the 2022 mid/late 1st & 2nd round will present better value for building depth at WR than at RB.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
Shrugs said:
This is fair, but the bellcow question really applies to most promising young RBs at this point in time. To your point, I do like Najee's chances of continuing to be a true bell cow in 2022 over Javonte.
I think the absolute worst case for Javonte is that you see something like a Jamaal Williams signing. Of the scheduled UFAs that Denver might plausibly sign, I'm not sure that anyone really shapes up to be more than a poor man's version of that. If anything, Melvin Gordon returning on a smaller contract where it's clear that Javonte is 1A and Melvin 1B is probably the worst case. I don't see Denver drafting one of the top RBs. So, I think Javonte as the lead back in a 60-40 split is your worst case next season. However, I think something in the neighborhood of a 65-35 to 75-25 feature back is more likely based on the early returns. What he does with the rest of 2021 will probably say a lot for what Denver invests in their RB#2 this offseason.
dipandglide
Footballguy
The value of each heavily depends on your 2021 outlook. Dobbins is the superior player, has draft capital, and is in a better offense. I prefer him either way vs JR. but I see the appeal of wanting to win-now. By all means get JR if you feel he makes you a contender.
TartanLion
Footballguy
How are people valuing Deshaun Watson ? I have a chance to get him in a superFlex where I have nothing at qb but trying to work out his value is very frustrating. The guy has no RBs and I have Kamara/Chubb/Akers/Dobbins/Etienne
Thinking of offering one of the young guys
Thinking of offering one of the young guys
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Too soon to broach the subject of value on Calvin Ridley? Does he take the rest of the season off and come back as a monster again in 2022 or does he ride off into the sunset?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I wouldn’t, unless you’re certain it’s very late. He’s a veteran flyer for a team pushing to win this year and has little future value, IMO. He’s reached Larry Fitz status for me.
titusbramble
Footballguy
Anyone seen any Denzel Mims trades recently? Fancy taking a flier in that White improves value and he then gets traded, approached owner last month (dead this year, building for future) and he's after picks, he has Lamb/DSmith/Mooney/EMoore/Viska/Gallup so may well give him up. SF league. Was thinking of offering a 4th but thinking that's way too much
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
The Gator
Footballguy
I would too, but I think the foot is also correct in that you should be a legit title contender. A first for Hop is worth it to win now, but that value isn’t going up and he’s likely on your team until the end.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
More of a guy you get on a throw-in than target on his own. Hard to place a value on him as he is not worth much, only in his second year, stuck behind numerous other targets, and on a team that refuses to trade him.titusbramble said:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Value check: Hurts owner in my SF dynasty league is throwing In the towel after a bad loss. Most of the dudes he’s put on the block are old (Waller, Elliott, Beasley, etc)
But he also listed Hurts. I have a *ton* of draft picks. Only 1x 2022 1st, but 5 2023 1sts.
I’m rebuilding for 2023. My trade calc says a 2022 & 2023 1st = fair value for Hurts, and this owner goes by this trade calc pretty religiously.
I’m on the fence about making the offer. I’ve see rumors he might be a Steeler next year. I’ve seen rumors that the Eagles might keep him, but are Leary since he hasn’t developed as a passer. I’m just not sure what to make of Hurts as a future asset. I could really use a QB, with Carr, D.Jones & Z.Wilson as my 3 starters. If I offered this, I’d have no 1st round pick in 2022, but I’d still have 4x 1sts in ‘23 (including a top 3), 2x 2nds (including a top 3), 3x 3rds, 2x 4ths & 5x 5ths.
Q: Would you pay 2x firsts for Hurts on the chance he’s starting for the next X# of years, or should I try my luck at building through the draft(s)?
But he also listed Hurts. I have a *ton* of draft picks. Only 1x 2022 1st, but 5 2023 1sts.
I’m rebuilding for 2023. My trade calc says a 2022 & 2023 1st = fair value for Hurts, and this owner goes by this trade calc pretty religiously.
I’m on the fence about making the offer. I’ve see rumors he might be a Steeler next year. I’ve seen rumors that the Eagles might keep him, but are Leary since he hasn’t developed as a passer. I’m just not sure what to make of Hurts as a future asset. I could really use a QB, with Carr, D.Jones & Z.Wilson as my 3 starters. If I offered this, I’d have no 1st round pick in 2022, but I’d still have 4x 1sts in ‘23 (including a top 3), 2x 2nds (including a top 3), 3x 3rds, 2x 4ths & 5x 5ths.
Q: Would you pay 2x firsts for Hurts on the chance he’s starting for the next X# of years, or should I try my luck at building through the draft(s)?
Agreed. You have no idea where or if Hurts is even playing next year and to give up two firsts for a potential 6 week player isn't worth it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Doubtful. It occurred to me, but Wilson’s been up & down and it feels like a sell-low. Plus I kinda feel like I’d rather have 4 QB than 3 in SF so if I can get it done with a late 1st that would be preferred. Interesting idea though.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, I’m in complete rebuild mode so I wouldn’t even benefit from those 6 weeks. It would be purely dependent on his future value.
I own Zack in a SF league but he is future and no way I give him up straight up for Hurts. Owners bail too quickly. But I also dont need Hurts and feel, he is not a long term solution in the NFL.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
This is where I’m at. It’s why I asked - just wanted to make sure I wasn’t off in my eval of Hurts.
I think he’s too much of a gamble to deal away 2x 1sts for.
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
Price check on David Montgomery:
Owner wants one of these 3 packages from me. Thought they were all steep, but am I missing something
Hurts and 2 1st Round Rookie Picks (both 1.08 to 1.14)
Hollywood Brown and 2 1st Round Rookie Picks (both 1.08 to 1.14)
Hurts, Brown and 1 1st Round Rookie Pick
Owner wants one of these 3 packages from me. Thought they were all steep, but am I missing something
Hurts and 2 1st Round Rookie Picks (both 1.08 to 1.14)
Hollywood Brown and 2 1st Round Rookie Picks (both 1.08 to 1.14)
Hurts, Brown and 1 1st Round Rookie Pick
robb
Footballguy
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Trades end at kickoff tonight so -
His Matt Ryan, Ekeler (2 yr) , C Patterson (1yr), useless de My CEH (3yr), dobbins (3yr), cam Newton, Shenault (2-4yrs), late 2nd
I'm m in a 3 way tie for first in my division and have Brady, CEH, Hunt, Deebo, Godwin, Thielen, and Jakobi Meyers as my starters when they're all healthy. No first pick.
His Matt Ryan, Ekeler (2 yr) , C Patterson (1yr), useless de My CEH (3yr), dobbins (3yr), cam Newton, Shenault (2-4yrs), late 2nd
I'm m in a 3 way tie for first in my division and have Brady, CEH, Hunt, Deebo, Godwin, Thielen, and Jakobi Meyers as my starters when they're all healthy. No first pick.
The Tahitian Facemask
Footballguy
Price check on Mike Evans. Last year of contract. Trade charts/calcs indicate he’s worth a first. If you’re contending, would you give that up for him?
1QB PPR
1QB PPR
TampaMike19
Footballguy
northern exposure
Footballguy
What value do you have for Mecole Hardman? 12 tm ppr Zealots league.
Other owner offered 2022 4th (probably mid round).My WRs are the weakest part of my roster and this seems low to me.
Other owner offered 2022 4th (probably mid round).My WRs are the weakest part of my roster and this seems low to me.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I’d easily give a mid to late first in my leagues. Crazy to me to think others wouldn’t. Dude is still top 10 on the year and not all that old.
joey
Footballguy
This x10000. If I’m truly Win Now, next year's 1st will likely be late, so getting a guy like Evans is a move I'd make in a second. Especially hearing grumbling from people-smarter-than-me who say next year's draft isn’t very strong.
I traded away my 1st next year plus Trevor Lawrence for Josh Allen, and I’d do similar for Evans. But I’m Full On WIN NOW in that league.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Definitely true. Unfortunately in all my leagues the teams with players like Evans are in the playoff hunts. Crap teams don't have anything of value to go after.
how are people treating Calvin Ridley? Leagues I own I am holding but one league where I don't own him and am a strong contender I was offer his Ridley for my Fournette and Sutton. I would like this deal in a vacuum but being that I'm in first and can use Fournette I am hesitant. Thoughts Ridley's value and possible outcomes?
kutta
Footballguy
This year aside, I think I’d take that deal. Ridley has shown that he truly is a stud, and his potential value is much more than Sutton and Fournette, IMO.
Now, his potential floor is pretty bad too, but I can’t help think that he’s going to come back pretty strong when he does.
