Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (12 Viewers)

[rockaction]

So I'm really high on Pollard. He reminds me of a young Clinton Portis in Denver. Clearly he's a better RB than Zeke at this point in Zeke's career, far more explosive, and much better YPC now. But what is Pollard's path to full time stud RB for FF purposes? Isn't Zeke's contract through 2026? Do Pollard owners just get out their voodoo dolls and go to town on Zeke's knees? Can Dallas move on from Zeke without a massive hit? Anyone have thoughts of what happens here or are we looking at a Denver like split for the foreseeable future? 

I roster Zeke in one dynasty league sans Pollard, so I've watched them. Pollard looks like the better back right now. The eyes say it, advanced metrics say it, everything screams it. I see Pollard getting more touches next year than he did this one.

That said, big time FF scorers usually have a BMI between 29-31. Pollard doesn't have that weight. He's sort of skinny, actually. I do not think he's a between-the-tackles kind of guy. You see it in the plays they call for Pollard, the way they use him. He's not a banger. 

Elliott has an out in his contract next year. That's when people assume either a massive restructuring or a cut might happen. My guess is that next year he will probably split time with Pollard again unless Zeke falls further off than he did this year. Then Dallas might be forced to go with Pollard. But Pollard is not going to see 22-26 touches per game, I don't think, even if that happens. It's not in his build. He's going to get 14-18 if he's the starter. And that's not guaranteed in the least. So I'd cool my heels on Pollard, who I roster in a different dynasty league sans Zeke. 

That's how I read the tea leaves. 

 

[Boston]

So I'm really high on Pollard. He reminds me of a young Clinton Portis in Denver. Clearly he's a better RB than Zeke at this point in Zeke's career, far more explosive, and much better YPC now. But what is Pollard's path to full time stud RB for FF purposes? Isn't Zeke's contract through 2026? Do Pollard owners just get out their voodoo dolls and go to town on Zeke's knees? Can Dallas move on from Zeke without a massive hit? Anyone have thoughts of what happens here or are we looking at a Denver like split for the foreseeable future? 

A far as next year goes Zeke is not going anywhere...here is his contract:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/ezekiel-elliott-18952/

Pollard has one more year left on his deal:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/ezekiel-elliott-18952/

For 2022 I expect Pollard to get more of a share and becomes more fantasy predictable/steady...my guess is he becomes a top 20 fantasy RB who obviously has top 10 upside if Zeke gets hurt (used kind of like a Kamara)...the x-factor is what happens in 2023...my guess is Dallas will love to get out of Zeke's contract but they also have to figure out what to do with Pollard who will have his only opportunity to get a big contract at the same time...the issue there is he will be 26 so how much money will Dallas want to invest in him at that age, especially if they have close to 12 mil in dead cap $ from Zeke's deal...maybe a franchise tag makes sense...one thing to watch will be if Dallas uses a decent pick on a RB this year with next offseason looming...I too really like Pollard but there are a lot of moving parts as far as his future is concerned.

 

[ffmail4me]

That said, big time FF scorers usually have a BMI between 29-31. Pollard doesn't have that weight. He's sort of skinny, actually. I do not think he's a between-the-tackles kind of guy. You see it in the plays they call for Pollard, the way they use him. He's not a banger. 

I agree he is used more in between the tackles, but Portis was 5-11, 204 at the combine coming into the NFL, before he bulked up for Gibbs. I think Pollard can absolutely be an every down back, but just no reason for him to in Dallas with Zeke there (and obviously being the much bigger back for between the tackle and goal line attempts) 

 

[ghostguy123]

It will be interesting to see some dynasty rankings this offseason.  I have no idea how I would rank stuff right now. 

 

[Lehigh98]

I started to look around to do some research for rookies and devy guys for the 2022 rookie draft but hitting a bunch of paywalls.  Which sites / sources do you rely on and are they worth the money?  DLF for example.

 

[robb]

I started to look around to do some research for rookies and devy guys for the 2022 rookie draft but hitting a bunch of paywalls.  Which sites / sources do you rely on and are they worth the money?  DLF for example.

Great ask! I will follow this thread for suggestions also. In this day and age, I don’t use pay sites anymore.

 

[Lehigh98]

Value check on Burrow and Chase in a superflex, PPR, best ball league?

Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE (with 2pt/rec TEP), 5 Flex, 1 SF (devalues RBs)

Where do you guys fall on the buy low - sell high / pivot approach to dynasty value?  The angel on my shoulder is patting me on the back for a good startup draft and having this stack for years to come.  The devil on my shoulder is telling me that the hype and value will never be higher and I should shop these guys to see what I could get back.  Obviously in best ball its better to have multiple stars that can score / produce for you but I'm not sure if I'm already too attached to these guys.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Value check on Burrow and Chase in a superflex, PPR, best ball league?

Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE (with 2pt/rec TEP), 5 Flex, 1 SF (devalues RBs)

Where do you guys fall on the buy low - sell high / pivot approach to dynasty value?  The angel on my shoulder is patting me on the back for a good startup draft and having this stack for years to come.  The devil on my shoulder is telling me that the hype and value will never be higher and I should shop these guys to see what I could get back.  Obviously in best ball its better to have multiple stars that can score / produce for you but I'm not sure if I'm already too attached to these guys.

Not sure I can think of another QB/WR combo I would rather have right now. Tough to sell those guys unless you are getting a large overpay in return. Would need studs in return, not just a boatload of picks.

 

[zaner75]

Chase could be a sell if you wanted to tier down and pick up an extra high-end piece or two. He's widely considered WR 1 or 2 so his value has nowhere to go even if it is insulated. If you find someone willing to pay the king's ransom, I think that's a prudent move.

Burrow is a generally considered one of the top 8 QBs. Given the state behind that 8 (age, job security), it's hard for me to see the benefit of tiering down.

 

[RC94]

I started to look around to do some research for rookies and devy guys for the 2022 rookie draft but hitting a bunch of paywalls.  Which sites / sources do you rely on and are they worth the money?  DLF for example.

DLF is my favorite for that info.  I've been using them for years now, especially for my devy league.

 

[zaner75]

I started to look around to do some research for rookies and devy guys for the 2022 rookie draft but hitting a bunch of paywalls.  Which sites / sources do you rely on and are they worth the money?  DLF for example.

I generally avoid paysites as well. I have used promotions that some sites offer for a year membership by signing up on a partner platform, usually a gambling site, for a lot less than the usual subscription cost. A few years ago, I did this for Fantasypros (waste of money) and this past year with DLF. I think I paid $10 to the partner site, got a deposit match and the year subscription.

I use some of the pay features but can live without them. DLF is offering the same $10 subscription offer again now.

Another avenue you may considered exploring, if you don't already do so, is youtube channels/podcasts where many of these paysites have their content for free.

 

[rockaction]

I'd like to start out by asserting that keeptradecut.com is a pretty good gauge of dynasty valuation among slightly serious dynasty players. It's a good place to get an idea of dynasty players' own valuations of certain guys and draft picks. In the beginning screen, before you're allowed to use the site, it takes three guys, and you rate them in rank order. Keep. Trade. Cut. People who visit the site do this, and the aggregation of ranked data leads to quantified valuations. So I was struck by something looking at their site. We know that the 2023 class is ballyhooed. But there's something weird about keeptradecut's valuation. Normally, or old school, you'd value a mid 2nd this year as a late first or a little better than that for the next year. If you were to swap picks, you'd get the extra value next year because you deferred taking a player and let a competitor who desired a player select him instead of that player being selected before his next turn. The person who deferred would get the draft spoils in the next year. But the class and the devy noise is turning everything on its head. 

Right now, a 2022 1.10 is going for a value of 4800 value points or so. The value of a 2023 Late First is about 5200 value points. I'm aware of the difference in the classes, but is it really that great as to turn the value on its head? I'm not really seeing the logic behind this. You have to wait a year to get how much of a better player? Something about the uncertainty of when that pick is would give me pause. Do you really know you're getting a good draft position for next year? Are certain drafts really as deep as we think? Is consensus about players and their talents correct enough to allow us to defer for a year to acquire a different entering class? 

I look at the the past few drafts and see a bunch of busts in the first round, and that uncertainty gives me pause that the evaluators are necessarily correct about the classes given their imperfect information and imperfect assessments. I mean, I don't begrudge them any expertise, and we're all human, but is the year deferral really worth it for 2023 as opposed to 2022? Should the 2023 picks be valued much more than the 2022 ones, especially in the later first round? 

I'm wondering. Devy guys, I'm looking at you. 

 

[ghostguy123]

I'd like to start out by asserting that keeptradecut.com is a pretty good gauge of dynasty valuation among slightly serious dynasty players. It's a good place to get an idea of dynasty players' own valuations of certain guys and draft picks. In the beginning screen, before you're allowed to use the site, it takes three guys, and you rate them in rank order. Keep. Trade. Cut. People who visit the site do this, and you get the drill. Aggregation of ranked data leads to quantified valuations. So I was struck by something looking at their site. We know that the 2023 class is ballyhooed. But there's something weird about keeptradecut's valuation. Normally, or old school, you'd value a mid 2nd this year as a late first or a little better than that for the next year. If you were to swap picks, you'd get the extra value next year because you deferred taking a player and let a competitor who desired a player select him instead of that player being selected before his next turn. The person who deferred would get the draft spoils in the next year. But the class and the devy noise is turning everything on its head. 

Right now, a 2022 1.10 is going for a value of 4800 value points or so. The value of a 2023 Late First is about 5200 value points. I'm aware of the difference in the classes, but is it really that great as to turn the value on its head? I'm not really seeing the logic behind this. You have to wait a year to get how much of a better player? Something about the uncertainty of when that pick is would give me pause. Do you really know you're getting a good draft position for next year? Are certain drafts really as deep as we think? Is consensus about players and their talents correct enough to allow us to defer for a year to acquire a different entering class? 

I look at the the past few drafts and see a bunch of busts in the first round, and that uncertainty gives me pause that the evaluators are necessarily correct about the classes given their imperfect information and imperfect assessments. I mean, I don't begrudge them any expertise, and we're all human, but is the year deferral really worth it for 2023 as opposed to 2022? Should the 2023 picks be valued much more than the 2022 ones, especially in the later first round? 

I'm wondering. Devy guys, I'm looking at you. 

Does it factor in that a projected late future 1st might actually end up being a HIGH future 1st?

 

[rockaction]

Does it factor in that a projected late future 1st might actually end up being a HIGH future 1st?

Ah, good point. I don't think so, but that's because I hadn't really thought of that. I think it's trying to put a value on the actual stated listing, though what you say makes a lot of sense. I wonder. Perhaps I can ask them. 

 

[ghostguy123]

Devonta Smith or pick 1.02 this year (non SF).

Go

 

[rockaction]

Devonta Smith or pick 1.02 this year (non SF).

Go

Wow. He had a good year. Are they getting him a QB? 

Treylon Burks, Breece Hall, Isaiah Spiller, Garrett Wilson. Combine testing and draft position plays a role. 

Toss-up? 

 

[Blick]

Wow. He had a good year. Are they getting him a QB? 

Treylon Burks, Breece Hall, Isaiah Spiller, Garrett Wilson. Combine testing and draft position plays a role. 

Toss-up? 

I agree.  I'd probably lean Smith but where these guys end up could change things.

 

[SayWhat?]

Curious why one would want Smith over your choice of the 2nd rookie, one that’ll have equivalent draft capital to Smith, in a likely much better landing spot?  1.02 by a pretty solid margin over Smith for me.  Smith didn’t show enough this year to make him more than just another viable option on a long list of viable options at WR.  Give me the stab at a different RB or WR landing in a premium destination.  

 

[menobrown]

Devonta Smith or pick 1.02 this year (non SF).

Go

I really like Devonta, have him on 1/3rd of my teams,  I would for sure prefer the 1.2 until a QB upgrade moves from something I think they'd like to do if the opportunity is right to actually doing.

 

[Buckna]

Curious why one would want Smith over your choice of the 2nd rookie, one that’ll have equivalent draft capital to Smith, in a likely much better landing spot?  1.02 by a pretty solid margin over Smith for me.  Smith didn’t show enough this year to make him more than just another viable option on a long list of viable options at WR.  Give me the stab at a different RB or WR landing in a premium destination.  

I would imagine most will want to bet on the #2 and possibly more than one RB landing in a good spot and I wouldn’t fault them that (I agree actually.) However, both of the highlighted are pretty big IF’s and not at all guaranteed. Smith is extremely talented (although on the small side) and showed flashes this year (2 100 yard receiving games in the first half of the season before Philly went hard on the running game). he’s more talented than most of the WRs that will be drafted in the 1st round this year IMO. Quite a few guys are projected for the 1st round but are any of these WR’s likely to go in the top 10? Detroit will likely go defense, so who else is a better destination than Philly? Atlanta maybe if they trade Ridley? The Raiders maybe after that? I wouldn’t be more excited about Houston, Cleveland, the Giants, GB without Rodgers, etc. for example as destinations as compared to Philly. If the Chargers take a WR that guy could definitely rocket up to the top of the rookie rankings.

I do agree that there is a logjam of potentially stud young WR’s right now which decreases each one’s individual value relative to the #2. Where do we draw the line though? I know I wouldn’t trade Smith for the #4 pick for example.

 

[Birdie048]

Devonta Smith or pick 1.02 this year (non SF).

Go

Tough choice ... and @rockaction hit it right ... QB is a big concern.  And if they invest into more of a Run 1st Offense, it will make him less fantasy relevant.  But 1.02 has risk.  I can see the landing spots of the Top 3 WR as critical in this valuation.  Today, I would take the gamble and go 1.02 pick > D Smith.  

 

[Gally]

Devonta Smith or pick 1.02 this year (non SF).

Go

Smith has talent but it didn't really translate to FF goodness (at least for this year).  He is one of many WR2/3 type guys at this point.  Could he jump up, possibly, but at this point I would rather have the pick (and I don't value picks nearly as much as most dynasty guys).   I just don't see the Eagles going away from run heavy which puts Smith in that neverland of a ton of other better NFL than FF guys.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Wow. He had a good year. Are they getting him a QB? 

Treylon Burks, Breece Hall, Isaiah Spiller, Garrett Wilson. Combine testing and draft position plays a role. 

Toss-up? 

All of this + what team drafts those assets & potential paths to PT.

it’s probably a coin flip, and depends on team needs. If your team needs a RB, do the deal - it’s fair. GL picking the right one, as they all have warts & destination / opportunity will be the biggest factor, which might not align correctly with the right RB.

If ya need a WR, I guess it’s about preference. I am not a big fan of PHI WRs with their current QB situation. He kneecaps production. At least for now. So I could see doing the deal for that as well. And again, picking the correct rookie WR will have a lot to do with landing spot. But this draft has some very good ones. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I just don't see the Eagles going away from run heavy which puts Smith in that neverland of a ton of other better NFL than FF guys.  

Agree with this. Could change in a hurry with a change at QB, but that might not be for a while. 

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

I'd take the 1.02.

Burks or Hall guaranteed, works for me.

Eagles could easily be drafting another first round WR this year as well, to potentially dilute Smith from an already lower volume position.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Thoughts on trading Tyreek for Herbert straight up in a 1QB league?

 

[menobrown]

Thoughts on trading Tyreek for Herbert straight up in a 1QB league?

I think it's a terrible idea.

 

[Birdie048]

Thoughts on trading Tyreek for Herbert straight up in a 1QB league?

WAY OVER PAY for Herbert in 1QB league.  

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

WAY OVER PAY for Herbert in 1QB league.  

That's my thought as well, but the owner (who also has Mahomes) is sticking to his guns.  Guess it's a hard pass.

 

[Gally]

That's my thought as well, but the owner (who also has Mahomes) is sticking to his guns.  Guess it's a hard pass.

So he has Mahomes and Herbert?  He is trying to reap the benefit from drafting Herbert when he didn't need him.  I have never seen that work out well.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Thoughts on trading Tyreek for Herbert straight up in a 1QB league?

Depends who your other QB is. 

If you have another potential top 5 QB, I absolutely deal Herbert for Hill. if not, notsomuch. 

ETA: Wait - you're giving Tyreek? Hard pass. My bad, thought you were getting him. 

 

[ghostguy123]

Tyreek is worth quite a bit more than any fantasy QB in start 1 QB leagues.  If that owner was smart he would offer you Herbert and something like a mid 1st or future 1st for Tyreek.

 

[ghostguy123]

Where's Cam Akers dynasty value right now?  

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Tyreek is worth quite a bit more than any fantasy QB in start 1 QB leagues.  If that owner was smart he would offer you Herbert and something like a mid 1st or future 1st for Tyreek.

My counter was Herbert and a pick (it's a keep up to 8 league, so the pick value is a bit more convoluted), which was flat out denied citing the point differential between Herbert and Tyreek.  We are both contenders, so it's probably works out well that we don't make each other better.  That could be the downfall of me!

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Where's Cam Akers dynasty value right now?  

His value, while speculative given the injury, is still pretty sky high.  I'd consider  a mid to high 2022 first.  Even with a completely healthy Akers, that backfield stays a RBBC.  IMO, great sell high candidate. 

 

[ghostguy123]

My counter was Herbert and a pick (it's a keep up to 8 league, so the pick value is a bit more convoluted), which was flat out denied citing the point differential between Herbert and Tyreek.  We are both contenders, so it's probably works out well that we don't make each other better.  That could be the downfall of me!

Offer him whaterver QB you have for his best RB/WR and cite the point differential.  I dont have the numbers in front of me but Matt Ryan probably outscored DK MEtcalf.

What a silly argument on his part.

 

[ghostguy123]

His value, while speculative given the injury, is still pretty sky high.  I'd consider  a mid to high 2022 first.  Even with a completely healthy Akers, that backfield stays a RBBC.  IMO, great sell high candidate. 

Mid 1st??  Wow cant imagine anyone selling him for a mid 1st.  Top 2-3 MAYBE

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Offer him whaterver QB you have for his best RB/WR and cite the point differential.  I dont have the numbers in front of me but Matt Ryan probably outscored DK MEtcalf.

What a silly argument on his part.

Yeah, just looking at Tyreek vs his best WR, he's still coming out overall in better shape.  My QB stable, while not great, is still pretty serviceable (Tannahill, Carr, Jones).

 

[ghostguy123]

Yeah, just looking at Tyreek vs his best WR, he's still coming out overall in better shape.  My QB stable, while not great, is still pretty serviceable (Tannahill, Carr, Jones).

Eh give it time.  If you truly want a high end QB and are willing to use Tyreek to do it, you will have no shortage of suitors

 

[rockaction]

Yeah, just looking at Tyreek vs his best WR, he's still coming out overall in better shape.  My QB stable, while not great, is still pretty serviceable (Tannahill, Carr, Jones).

It's just a bad deal, frankly. The starting point is so wonky, I'm not sure you can negotiate it to something reasonable. 

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Mid 1st??  Wow cant imagine anyone selling him for a mid 1st.  Top 2-3 MAYBE

Achilles tendon injuries worry me.  Check out this (albeit very small sample) study on them:

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2473011417S000314#:~:text=Results%3A 78 Achilles tendon ruptures,to play in the NFL.

I'm not saying that he's toast, but the likelyhood of full return from an Achilles tear for a long, dynamic career isn't great.

 

[ghostguy123]

Achilles tendon injuries worry me.  Check out this (albeit very small sample) study on them:

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2473011417S000314#:~:text=Results%3A 78 Achilles tendon ruptures,to play in the NFL.

I'm not saying that he's toast, but the likelyhood of full return from an Achilles tear for a long, dynamic career isn't great.

He, well, he looks quick and fast right NOW

 

[joey]

Mid 1st??  Wow cant imagine anyone selling him for a mid 1st.  Top 2-3 MAYBE

I think mid-1st is the best you’d get with the question marks around Akers still (admitting he seemed to have the spark back in the playoff games I’ve seen). If it were a better draft class, I might sell for a mid-1st, or more likely a high-end WR2 if I can get one, since (on the team where I own Akers) I have depth at RB (Taylor, Dobbins, JWiliiams DEN, Akers) but just CeeDee, Aiyuk, Woods, Kirk and Claypool at WR. Perhaps I will try to package on of the last 2 WRs I list plus Akers to get a low-end WR1, or at least a rock freakin solid WR2. We can start 2 RBs at most. 
anyway, so league and roster specific imo. 

 

[cowboys85]

I'd take the 1.02.

Burks or Hall guaranteed, works for me.

Eagles could easily be drafting another first round WR this year as well, to potentially dilute Smith from an already lower volume position.

A lot of the early mocks have CLE and NYJ taking a WR in Round 1 and HOU and MIA taking an RB in Round 2. 

Burks catching passes from Baker? Or Spiller/Hall behind a crappy o-line? Right now, I think I’d take Smith with draft slot/team being unknown. 

 

[cowboys85]

Mid 1st??  Wow cant imagine anyone selling him for a mid 1st.  Top 2-3 MAYBE

I agree, I wouldn't trade him for less than 1.01 in this draft class. 

 

[menobrown]

Mid 1st??  Wow cant imagine anyone selling him for a mid 1st.  Top 2-3 MAYBE

I have picks 3-4 in a few leagues and if I was offered Akers for any of those picks I would accept it.

I don't own a pick 2 but for me that's right about were I'd start to consider it versus just hitting the accept button.

 

[menobrown]

That's my thought as well, but the owner (who also has Mahomes) is sticking to his guns.  Guess it's a hard pass.

So the guy is trying to make you help him get the awesome Mahomes/Tyreek hookup and is holding firm that he'll only do it if he pays with his backup QB???  That's bold. I got a Mahomes/Herbert one start QB team that is sitting on pick 9 right now and I'd give up 1.9/Herbert for Hill in a second.  I also have a Herbert/Hill team and would to me I don't put their values as remotely close, which is why I replied earlier I thought it was a horrible idea.

 

[Lehigh98]

I have more of a general pick value question for you guys specific to my league.  I just started a new (superflex, TE premium, best ball) league and we had our startup draft last summer.  Almost all of the guys are new to dynasty.

We have a 3 round rookie draft coming up after the NFL draft.  There was only one pick trade made during the entire year when I got someone to give me a late 3rd for a player they wanted for the playoffs.  So you could say just about everyone is holding onto their picks because they're uncertain how the rookie draft will play out and how much they are worth.

I went productive struggle and am picking 3rd in the draft.  On the one hand I know that picks are generally more valuable the closer we get to the draft.  On the other hand, I'm wondering if teams are overvaluing the picks and I can trade mine for value now. 

What have your experiences been after the first year of a dynasty league in regards to the first rookie draft and pick value?

 

[ghostguy123]

I have more of a general pick value question for you guys specific to my league.  I just started a new (superflex, TE premium, best ball) league and we had our startup draft last summer.  Almost all of the guys are new to dynasty.

We have a 3 round rookie draft coming up after the NFL draft.  There was only one pick trade made during the entire year when I got someone to give me a late 3rd for a player they wanted for the playoffs.  So you could say just about everyone is holding onto their picks because they're uncertain how the rookie draft will play out and how much they are worth.

I went productive struggle and am picking 3rd in the draft.  On the one hand I know that picks are generally more valuable the closer we get to the draft.  On the other hand, I'm wondering if teams are overvaluing the picks and I can trade mine for value now. 

What have your experiences been after the first year of a dynasty league in regards to the first rookie draft and pick value?

The picks are more valuable after the NFL draft and even more valuable during your draft

 

[Gally]

I have more of a general pick value question for you guys specific to my league.  I just started a new (superflex, TE premium, best ball) league and we had our startup draft last summer.  Almost all of the guys are new to dynasty.

We have a 3 round rookie draft coming up after the NFL draft.  There was only one pick trade made during the entire year when I got someone to give me a late 3rd for a player they wanted for the playoffs.  So you could say just about everyone is holding onto their picks because they're uncertain how the rookie draft will play out and how much they are worth.

I went productive struggle and am picking 3rd in the draft.  On the one hand I know that picks are generally more valuable the closer we get to the draft.  On the other hand, I'm wondering if teams are overvaluing the picks and I can trade mine for value now. 

What have your experiences been after the first year of a dynasty league in regards to the first rookie draft and pick value?

I think the majority of dynasty players overvalue picks way too much.  I would much rather trade picks of unknown players for players I believe in and have seen what they can do in the NFL already.  

That is not to say that I give away picks because I understand that other's value them.  I am saying I have no problem moving picks for players that I believe in.