Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (19 Viewers)

[Buckna]

DLF has Elijah Moore equal to the 1.6 based on ADP data in startups. Startup data at the moment is not the most reliable but that feels a little light to me based on Moore showing he can play at this level (even if he is a Jet.)

Unfortunately for his trade value, there are a ton of young WR's in the league that have shown flashes and likely 4 or 5 more 1st round WR's coming in this year again. A lot of supply lowers all their relative values IMO. If Moore's owner is too high on him and really wants the 1.01, just move on and a target a different WR to trade for. There are lots of other good targets.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Unfortunately for his trade value, there are a ton of young WR's in the league that have shown flashes and likely 4 or 5 more 1st round WR's coming in this year again. A lot of supply lowers all their relative values IMO. If Moore's owner is too high on him and really wants the 1.01, just move on and a target a different WR to trade for. There are lots of other good targets.

This is true - and also there’s the question of what the seller’s going to get out of it. For that context is likely key. If deep at WR & hoping to land a top 2022 pick to nab a QB in SF, for example, I could see doing it.

Otherwise I’d probably hold.

If I could deal Moore for a top 3 pick in 2023, and I was deep at WR, I’d be selling, if I had Moore. 

 

[zaner75]

Where we putting Elijah Moore in relation to rookie picks either this year or next....................

He was traded in one of my 14 team SF leagues for 1.12. Seems about right. Maybe a bit on the light side. All depends on what people's expectations are for him. Personally, I see a ceiling of mid WR2 and there are a lot of options in that range and always more supply coming.

 

[Boston]

He was traded in one of my 14 team SF leagues for 1.12. Seems about right. Maybe a bit on the light side. All depends on what people's expectations are for him. Personally, I see a ceiling of mid WR2 and there are a lot of options in that range and always more supply coming.

That is a great deal to get Moore at that price...if you can get Moore's rookie season/potential upside out of 1.12 you would be thrilled...so why do that deal, way too much downside IMO.

 

[Gally]

This is true - and also there’s the question of what the seller’s going to get out of it. For that context is likely key. If deep at WR & hoping to land a top 2022 pick to nab a QB in SF, for example, I could see doing it.

Otherwise I’d probably hold.

If I could deal Moore for a top 3 pick in 2023, and I was deep at WR, I’d be selling, if I had Moore. 

Where do you have Moore compared to Gabe Davis?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Where do you have Moore compared to Gabe Davis?

Oof. That’s trickier than it should be. 

Real life football I have Moore rated higher. He’s a better WR. Better draft stock, higher rated prospect, etc. it’s a clean sweep on paper.

But Moore’s fate is tied to Zach Wilson, while Gabe Davis is tied to Josh Allen.

So short term for FF, I might prefer to have the WR2 in BUF than the WR1 on the Jets.

And if Wilson fails to develop into a respectable passer, Davis may end up being more valuable for FF. Especially if he is locked in as the WR2 & continues to grow in that role.

 

[Gally]

Oof. That’s trickier than it should be. 

Real life football I have Moore rated higher. He’s a better WR. Better draft stock, higher rated prospect, etc. it’s a clean sweep on paper.

But Moore’s fate is tied to Zach Wilson, while Gabe Davis is tied to Josh Allen.

So short term for FF, I might prefer to have the WR2 in BUF than the WR1 on the Jets.

And if Wilson fails to develop into a respectable passer, Davis may end up being more valuable for FF. Especially if he is locked in as the WR2 & continues to grow in that role.

I mentioned that because I would say Moore is ascending in value.  He outperformed his expectations with terrible QB play which shows ascension to me.  Davis had slightly worse stats in yr 2 so I have him as neither ascending or descending.  I thought this would be a good test for you

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I mentioned that because I would say Moore is ascending in value.  He outperformed his expectations with terrible QB play which shows ascension to me.  Davis had slightly worse stats in yr 2 so I have him as neither ascending or descending.  I thought this would be a good test for you

It felt like a test. did I pass?

 

[Gally]

It felt like a test. did I pass?

I will tell you after next year....hahhaha

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I will tell you after next year....hahhaha

 

 

[Birdie048]

There have been some good discussions on young WR here lately- NYJ Elijah Moore, BUF Gabriel David&  PHI Devonta Smith but not so much DET Amon-Ra besides the concern over DET drafting/signing FA WR1 to displace him.  
What am I missing in that in my league nobody wants him?  I offered Sun God & Wentz for Lawrence in 1QB league and he countered to add Sutton.  
Is Amon-Ra not getting any trade love (aside from @Hotsauceguy who acquired him)?  Yeah, Swift was hurt late, TJ Hoch was also hurt late. DET was out of the chase. But Amon-Ra was Top 5 WR last few regular season games!  
So, is it a lack of reproducibility that is cause his low value?  The man can play!  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

There have been some good discussions on young WR here lately- NYJ Elijah Moore, BUF Gabriel David&  PHI Devonta Smith but not so much DET Amon-Ra besides the concern over DET drafting/signing FA WR1 to displace him.  
What am I missing in that in my league nobody wants him?  I offered Sun God & Wentz for Lawrence in 1QB league and he countered to add Sutton.  
Is Amon-Ra not getting any trade love (aside from @Hotsauceguy who acquired him)?  Yeah, Swift was hurt late, TJ Hoch was also hurt late. DET was out of the chase. But Amon-Ra was Top 5 WR last few regular season games!  
So, is it a lack of reproducibility that is cause his low value?  The man can play!  

Yep! I acquired him today.  

He was great for me in redraft, and that stretch run was incredible.

I don’t care who they draft. He going to see targets. And now the TE coach is the OC. Reportedly he was heavily involved with calling the offense during that stretch run.

I watched several of those games. He looked like the real deal out there. I see a lot of reason for optimism. 

 

[Birdie048]

Yep! I acquired him today.  

He was great for me in redraft, and that stretch run was incredible.

I don’t care who they draft. He going to see targets. And now the TE coach is the OC. Reportedly he was heavily involved with calling the offense during that stretch run.

I watched several of those games. He looked like the real deal out there. I see a lot of reason for optimism. 

Good insight & info!  TY

With Det having a high pick, most say they need QB, WR & good Edge Rusher

Det ranked #31 in sacks in last 3 years is a good indicator DE is higher.  

 

[Gally]

There have been some good discussions on young WR here lately- NYJ Elijah Moore, BUF Gabriel David&  PHI Devonta Smith but not so much DET Amon-Ra besides the concern over DET drafting/signing FA WR1 to displace him.  
What am I missing in that in my league nobody wants him?  I offered Sun God & Wentz for Lawrence in 1QB league and he countered to add Sutton.  
Is Amon-Ra not getting any trade love (aside from @Hotsauceguy who acquired him)?  Yeah, Swift was hurt late, TJ Hoch was also hurt late. DET was out of the chase. But Amon-Ra was Top 5 WR last few regular season games!  
So, is it a lack of reproducibility that is cause his low value?  The man can play!  

I think he had the perfect storm for targets down the stretch and he capitalized.  I don't think he is a WR1 and that he will come back down to earth with Swift, Hock, and WR's in the fold.  

I think he is a better NFL player than FF player and that he is overvalued by many and will be overdrafted next year in redraft (he won't return performance based on where he will be drafted).  I think he settles in as a WR2/3 for FF and there are a ton of those guys out there.  They are easily found.  It sounds like the other people in your league have the same evaluation as I do and therefore aren't willing to give up a lot for him.  

I think he could prove me wrong but I definitely am not going to pay "full" price for him because I don't think the risk is worth it.  If I could get him for the price of a WR2/3 type player I would take the chance.  

 

[Birdie048]

I think he had the perfect storm for targets down the stretch and he capitalized.  I don't think he is a WR1 and that he will come back down to earth with Swift, Hock, and WR's in the fold.  

I think he is a better NFL player than FF player and that he is overvalued by many and will be overdrafted next year in redraft (he won't return performance based on where he will be drafted).  I think he settles in as a WR2/3 for FF and there are a ton of those guys out there.  They are easily found.  It sounds like the other people in your league have the same evaluation as I do and therefore aren't willing to give up a lot for him.  

I think he could prove me wrong but I definitely am not going to pay "full" price for him because I don't think the risk is worth it.  If I could get him for the price of a WR2/3 type player I would take the chance.  

As I am at the end of year 1 of Rebuild, I was hoping to "Sell High" and capitalize when I saw Amon-Ra going for Late 1st value.  Sure, I agree with the "perfect storm" description, but I think he will still carry good PPR value as a possession WR.  

Much appreciated response.   I mean I made 1 bad deal (acquired CMC / paid too much IMO) last year and I think some see that as a benchmark for me in trade deals.  I guess I have more work to do! 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think he had the perfect storm for targets down the stretch and he capitalized.  I don't think he is a WR1 and that he will come back down to earth with Swift, Hock, and WR's in the fold.  

While I agree with you that Hock & Swift’s respective returns will impact ARSB’s targets, I don’t think it spells quite as much doom for the Sun God’s FF value. He should remain a PPR asset, even with Hock & Swift back. The Lions clearly like using him both in passing & rushing, and he rewarded them for their trust with some absolutely monster games. And now the alleged architect of those games is the new OC. I very much doubt he forgets how good ARSB was & stops using him. 

I don’t think he’ll deliver 30 point weekly performances, but I do see a weekly WR2-3 FF floor, with some occasional performances bordering on WR1. Kind of a perfect PPR flex play & BYE week fill-in for FF. 

Also worth mentioning - the suggestion that Swift will come back and kill ARSB’s value is interesting, because one of those two players was able to stay on the field last year, and it wasn’t Swift. I’m just sayin - ARSB might could again have a similar opportunity next year if the last couple seasons are an indicator of Swift’s health. I’m not saying I can predict injury, I’m just saying it’s at least fair to suggest based on our body of evidence to date.  

Also, I’m not sure who the other WRs in the fold are who will overtake ARSB for targets. Quinten Cephus? Josh Reynolds? Hodge? McKinney? I see a whole bunch of meh. Reynolds isn’t terrible, but from what I’ve seen, he wasn’t close to ARSB.  Maybe they draft someone or make a FA splash at WR. That’s possible. 

I think he is a better NFL player than FF player and that he is overvalued by many and will be overdrafted next year in redraft (he won't return performance based on where he will be drafted).  I think he settles in as a WR2/3 for FF and there are a ton of those guys out there.  They are easily found.  It sounds like the other people in your league have the same evaluation as I do and therefore aren't willing to give up a lot for him.  

It’s funny - I also see him as a FF WR 2-3 type, but I see it as a positive while you see it as a negative.  I also believe players can get better and take leaps from year 1 to year 2, and year 3.  ARSB took a huge leap from the 1st half of 2021 to the 2nd half, so I’m not discounting the possibility of improvement both for RL football & FF. He could become a reliable WR2 for FF purposes. 

I think he could prove me wrong but I definitely am not going to pay "full" price for him because I don't think the risk is worth it.  If I could get him for the price of a WR2/3 type player I would take the chance.  

I agree with this part. The time to get him was before last season when he was taken in the 3rd round of most rookie drafts.  I was able to acquire him as a peripheral piece to moving up in the 1st round. I’m psyched to have him, but it was basically at the cost of Bourne & Ced Wilson. I would not pay a 1st for him. 

 

[Gally]

It’s funny - I also see him as a FF WR 2-3 type, but I see it as a positive while you see it as a negative.  I also believe players can get better and take leaps from year 1 to year 2, and year 3.  ARSB took a huge leap from the 1st half of 2021 to the 2nd half, so I’m not discounting the possibility of improvement both for RL football & FF. He could become a reliable WR2 for FF purposes. 

I don't see it as a positive or a negative.  I am just stating where I see him in terms of performance.  Basically it is what it is.

The negative associated with it is that because he finished so strong (with nobody else to take targets away) his price tag has increased to where he is overvalued (IMO).  I see him being overdrafted next year based on those last few games and then he falls to where he should be (WR2/3) and doesn't return that value.  I know you are a big value draft guy.  I just don't see me or you getting him anywhere if we both see his value as a WR2/3 type player because I think he will be drafted more in the WR1/2 realm.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't see it as a positive or a negative.  I am just stating where I see him in terms of performance.  Basically it is what it is.

The negative associated with it is that because he finished so strong (with nobody else to take targets away) his price tag has increased to where he is overvalued (IMO).  I see him being overdrafted next year based on those last few games and then he falls to where he should be (WR2/3) and doesn't return that value.  I know you are a big value draft guy.  I just don't see me or you getting him anywhere if we both see his value as a WR2/3 type player because I think he will be drafted more in the WR1/2 realm.  

I don’t disagree with this part at all. I meant to include that in my last post.

If you can get him at a reasonable price in dynasty, go for it. A high 2022 2nd seems about right. My draft calc has him as almost exactly a 1.12 value, which still might be fair considering the somewhat weak 2022 draft. For me it’s all about gambling that he’ll improve over the next couple of seasons rather than banking on a WR2 floor for 2022. 

But yeah,  I am also likely to avoid in redraft. He will probably be over-drafted & disappoint. No argument there. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Basically it is what it is.

Yeah, it's difficult to get excited about WR2/3 types because there's just so many of them out there right now. Why overpay for one especially for one that saw what is likely unsustainable volume?

With no Hockenson or Swift in the lineup,  naturally the slot guy was going to see increased volume. Those guys are coming back. On top of that, I don't think anyone is going to be shocked when Detroit drafts a few more WRs (they basically HAVE to).

Brown is a solid possession type WR in the NFL - but any dip in targets is going to affect a guy like him more than a deep threat big play guy. Next year it's much more likely he's a bye week filler than an every week starter. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Yeah, it's difficult to get excited about WR2/3 types because there's just so many of them out there right now. Why overpay for one especially for one that saw what is likely unsustainable volume?

With no Hockenson or Swift in the lineup,  naturally the slot guy was going to see increased volume. Those guys are coming back. On top of that, I don't think anyone is going to be shocked when Detroit drafts a few more WRs (they basically HAVE to).

Brown is a solid possession type WR in the NFL - but any dip in targets is going to affect a guy like him more than a deep threat big play guy. Next year it's much more likely he's a bye week filler than an every week starter. 

I agree in premise, but I do think there is something to be said for targeting a guy that has higher upside than you anticipate him eventually settling into. 

10-86-1
8-73-0
8-90-1
9-91-1
8-111-1
8-109-1

That's a pretty insane stretch.  And yes there were circumstances involved and yes there have been a plethora of other guys that went on great runs for a short stretch and never amounted to much.  But I do think there is some value in the unknown possibility of him actually being an elite WR and more than just a WR2, even if its not the anticipated outcome, compared to buying someone like Tyler Lockett or Brandin Cooks where you pretty much know what you have.

There was a time when people thought guys like Tyreek Hill, Greg Jennings, TY Hilton were just regular old inconsistent WR2's like so many others.

 

[Blick]

10-86-1
8-73-0
8-90-1
9-91-1
8-111-1
8-109-1

When a rookie can’t be stopped from putting up these numbers when the whole world knows he’s the only option, I’m buying. 

 

[tangfoot]

I mentioned that because I would say Moore is ascending in value. He outperformed his expectations with terrible QB play which shows ascension to me.  Davis had slightly worse stats in yr 2 so I have him as neither ascending or descending.

It's an extremely slow ascent over the three most recent months of data, and I think he'll get passed by Etienne during this offseason. I see little to no chance that ARSB or Bateman overtake him over the same period, so pretty solidly 1.09 among the 2021 rookie class.

His ADP among rookies in Mizelle/DLF:

July - 1.12
August - 1.09
September - 1.09
October - 1.12
November - 1.11
December - 1.10
January - 1.08

No matter how great Gabe Davis played in a couple weeks of the playoffs, he's not going to vault into that territory.  People are fickle and have massive recency bias, those blow up games will fade from memory by summer.

If you're someone who believes in Davis, you should be able to acquire him for far cheaper than Elijah Moore.

 

[tangfoot]

When a rookie can’t be stopped from putting up these numbers when the whole world knows he’s the only option, I’m buying. 

His January ADP falls in this range:

WR20 Calvin Ridley
WR21 Michael Pittman
WR22 Jerry Jeudy
WR23 Mike Evans
WR24 Chase Claypool

WR25 ARSB

WR26 Brandon Aiyuk
WR27 Marquise Brown
WR28 Amari Cooper
WR29 Deandre Hopkins
WR30 Rashod Bateman

I think I prefer everyone in this field over ARSB for now, except for Coop and Ridley (who I don't believe will ever take the field again in an NFL uniform).

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If you're someone who believes in Davis, you should be able to acquire him for far cheaper than Elijah Moore.

You’re likely correct. The challenge is finding a Davis owner is willing to sell low.

Not one Davis owner will forget that playoff game in any amount of time. 

So it’s a Gabe Davis paradox. Buyers want that game to not matter, sellers are pumped to have him rostered.

Agree with others that it would be easier to deal a player for him than a pick. 

 

[tangfoot]

So it’s a Gabe Davis paradox. Buyers want that game to not matter, sellers are pumped to have him rostered.

Yeah, that's the real issue here.  I sold my copies after he played fantastic in the 2020 playoffs and never regretted it during the 2021 fantasy season.  I may regret it going forward, though.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I agree in premise, but I do think there is something to be said for targeting a guy that has higher upside than you anticipate him eventually settling into. 

10-86-1
8-73-0
8-90-1
9-91-1
8-111-1
8-109-1

That's a pretty insane stretch.  And yes there were circumstances involved and yes there have been a plethora of other guys that went on great runs for a short stretch and never amounted to much.  But I do think there is some value in the unknown possibility of him actually being an elite WR and more than just a WR2, even if its not the anticipated outcome, compared to buying someone like Tyler Lockett or Brandin Cooks where you pretty much know what you have.

There was a time when people thought guys like Tyreek Hill, Greg Jennings, TY Hilton were just regular old inconsistent WR2's like so many others.

The difference is those (bolded) guys were explosive players - I don't see that in Brown. Even during his "insane stretch" he was basically averaging 10 yards per catch. We know that TDs can be volitile, and those high TD numbers don't seem sustainable given his low tpc and the fact that while he was doing that there was no else to catch the ball.

I'm not saying he's worthless - I just think anyone buying based on those end of year numbers will end up disappointed - of course he could be the next Wes Welker or Jarvis Landry as well.

 

[tangfoot]

I'm not saying he's worthless - I just think anyone buying based on those end of year numbers will end up disappointed - of course he could be the next Wes Welker or Jarvis Landry as well.

The truth likely lies in the middle, rather than at one of the two low probability ends of the bell curve.

 

[menobrown]

Jarvis Landry

For better or worse my closest comp for him is Landry, a faster version.

Obviously you got to differentiate between coach/player speak but I'd really encourage people to pay attention to how his coaches and QB talk about him.  I really don't think he's a flash in the pan but a building block whose head coach loves him and is going to be make him a central part of the rebuild. With that head coach secure on a contract with 5 years remaining and calling plays I think he's going to be a consistent heavily involved player. Not a league winner, but a consistent rock solid young middling  to low end WR2.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Not a league winner, but a consistent rock solid young middling  to low end WR2.

I keep seeing people talking about reliable & consistent WR2s like they grow on trees, and I just don’t think that’s accurate.

In my experience most WR2s are boom / bust types.

If you can get a WR with a consistent floor, who’s also capable of the occasional boom game, that’s a bit more rare.

Don't know if that will be ARSB, but I’m optimistic. He’s a chain-mover on a team in desperate need of chain-movers. His coach & OC love him, and it’s hard to ignore that 6-game stretch, regardless of whether Hock & Swift weren’t playing. By the 2nd or 3rd game, defenses knew he was the only weapon DET had & they still couldn’t stop him. 

I can’t imagine any scenario where they stop throwing him the ball, barring injury. 

 

[menobrown]

.

In my experience most WR2s are boom / bust types.

Depends on the type. As you indicated he's a chain mover, high target, not a big play guy. Those types are usually consistent and that's what I think he will be-at worst.

In terms of high upside he does not seem like that type but let's all be honest on the fact we've all mis-evaluated several WR's whose physical traits did not seem to indicate high upside.  I used to use Antonio Brown and Welker/Edelman as poster children for this but now throw in Kupp, whose rookie season was very similar to ASB's. 

Really when a guy spends his last 6 weeks of his rookie season averaging over 25 fantasy points a game it really should not need to be said that he might have a lot more upside then we all seem to be giving him.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Really when a guy spends his last 6 weeks of his rookie season averaging over 25 fantasy points a game it really should not need to be said that he might have a lot more upside then we all seem to be giving him.

isn’t it weird when a guy like ARSB (or Gabe Davis) makes a huge splash & it’s almost used as a negative against them? “Yeah, sure but sample size! Past profile! Circumstance!”

Happens a lot in dynasty valuation.

In this case we’re looking at a 6-week stretch. I have a very hard time dismissing a month & a half of sustained excellence as a fluke or outlier, player profile be damned.

And hey, if all ARSB becomes is a possession receiver, ok, cool - there have been some absolutely terrific possession receivers for FF purposes. Maybe he’s the next Tim Brown (both 6’ 195-ish). I don’t think any shareholder would mind having that for the next decade. 

Not saying it’s going to happen, but it’s in the range of potential outcomes. 

 

[Gally]

In terms of high upside he does not seem like that type but let's all be honest on the fact we've all mis-evaluated several WR's whose physical traits did not seem to indicate high upside.  I used to use Antonio Brown and Welker/Edelman as poster children for this but now throw in Kupp, whose rookie season was very similar to ASB's. 

Kupp and Top Ramen St Ramen had very different rookie seasons.  Kupp put those numbers up with Watkins, Woods, Higbee, Everett, and Gurley all putting up decent seasons.  Kupp was not the only option for 4 or 5 games and he played very well the entire season as a red zone threat.  I am not getting the comparison.  

 

[menobrown]

Kupp and Top Ramen St Ramen had very different rookie seasons.  Kupp put those numbers up with Watkins, Woods, Higbee, Everett, and Gurley all putting up decent seasons.  Kupp was not the only option for 4 or 5 games and he played very well the entire season as a red zone threat.  I am not getting the comparison.  

You listed a lot of players but we have different criteria for decent seasons that's for certain.

 

[Gally]

You listed a lot of players but we have different criteria for decent seasons that's for certain.

My point was that there offensive options so Kupp wasn't being force fed for a short period of time.  Gurley put up 19 TD's and Goff had 28TD's.   It was a solid offensive team unlike Detroit this year.  

 

[menobrown]

My point was that there offensive options so Kupp wasn't being force fed for a short period of time.  Gurley put up 19 TD's and Goff had 28TD's.   It was a solid offensive team unlike Detroit this year.  

I get your point just don't agree with how you presented it or your findings and from football I"ve been watching all my life a strong running game is a huge asset to passing game.

Where you see ASB as a byproduct of force feeding see a player who was crazy off the charts efficient even when he was the clear cut #1 option. A lot of targets does not always equal force feeding, sometimes you just earn it. At end of the day whether you want to include his hot streak at the end or what he was doing earlier he was every bit as efficient as Kupp and on total raw numbers similar on per target basis despite being what you are trying to tell me while functioning as more of a primary option then Kupp. In other words his production and efficiency to me was more difficult to obtain, not less so.

 

[Gally]

I get your point just don't agree with how you presented it or your findings and from football I"ve been watching all my life a strong running game is a huge asset to passing game.

Where you see ASB as a byproduct of force feeding see a player who was crazy off the charts efficient even when he was the clear cut #1 option. A lot of targets does not always equal force feeding, sometimes you just earn it. At end of the day whether you want to include his hot streak at the end or what he was doing earlier he was every bit as efficient as Kupp and on total raw numbers similar on per target basis despite being what you are trying to tell me while functioning as more of a primary option then Kupp. In other words his production and efficiency to me was more difficult to obtain, not less so.

I think some of that was also that Detroit was down (sometimes big) so defenses didn't really care about short possession type plays and just tackle in bounds to keep the clock going.   I think that also added to his stats nicely.

I do think St Brown is a good football player.  I do think he gets open and will be a solid player moving forward.  I just don't think he is a WR1.  

 

[barackdhouse]

I keep seeing people talking about reliable & consistent WR2s like they grow on trees, and I just don’t think that’s accurate.

Until this last season I would have said they grew on trees. Ok actually I think my exact words, and I used them a lot, were "I can't cross the street in FF land without tripping over another WR worth starting."

####.

2021 really kicked my ### as it relates to WRs. RB was absurd this year but I balled out and was able to be ahead of the curve there. Waller and Hockenson going down at basically the same time kind of hurt me and I've never had a rougher time at QB than I had in 2021 (for largely bad luck reasons IMO). 

But WRs dang. 

 

[menobrown]

.  I just don't think he is a WR1.  

Let's get back on tract. I predict him as more of a middling WR2. I brought up Kupp in part because they were similar production(and QB) rookie seasons but I brought up Kupp to illustrate that I don't think anyone viewed him as a WR1 at that time. In other words unless you are telling me that's how you viewed Kupp someone most people thought of as a WR2 type ended up being so much more. That was my point on ASB. I don't think he's a WR1, won't be first time I was wrong and doing what he did on a fairly healthy and consistent 6 game stretch does give me more consideration then normal that we may not be giving him his proper due.

 

[menobrown]

Until this last season I would have said they grew on trees. Ok actually I think my exact words, and I used them a lot, were "I can't cross the street in FF land without tripping over another WR worth starting."

####.

2021 really kicked my ### as it relates to WRs. RB was absurd this year but I balled out and was able to be ahead of the curve there. Waller and Hockenson going down at basically the same time kind of hurt me and I've never had a rougher time at QB than I had in 2021 (for largely bad luck reasons IMO). 

But WRs dang. 

Not to sidetrack things but you bring up a great point because I'm a bit notorious for blowing off heavy WR investing early in drafts and thinking I can find guys all over the place. Last year was not the case and I felt the same way as you are indicating here. My question is why now? After years and years of talent rich WR draft did it seem more barren then normal?  I think this will change the way I draft in 2022.

 

[barackdhouse]

 My question is why now? 

It could be a one-off. As far as I know passing stats are still on the upward trajectory. I think 2021 gets an asterisk for covid and injuries across the board. I have the same question though and *right now* my gut instinct towards 2022 that formed at the end of the season is that I am basically always drafting zero RB from now on. Lol. Or my version of it as you and I have discussed. It doesn't have to be an according to Hoyle zero RB but just taking elite WR/TE early is the idea. Depends on slot and the board and all that. Neither of us like to be pigeonholed into a locked in strategy but largely speaking I want the top WR(s) if I can help it.

So Kupp in the 4th and Deebo in the 6th last year. Ok so wait that doesn't add up. Ridley and Diggs the year before. I missed on all those guys in the mid rounds these last two years and am not stoked about missing again. I'm not afraid to draft so called dead-zone RBs though and have had high success with the ones I do grab. 

Clear as mud, right? I mean I am not even close to even a preliminary draft board for 2022 so IDK what I'm talking about here. My simplest response is that I don't think I am changing much at this point. I usually let the draft tiers (once I build them) dictate where I think there are values. And it could be at any position, not just WR. The truth is my draft strategies weren't bad last year and I had a lot of great teams. It was an extraordinarily crazy season though.

 

[barackdhouse]

Anyway put me in the camp that Amon-Ra is a good WR2/3 type worth holding. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Anyway put me in the camp that Amon-Ra is a good WR2/3 type worth holding. 

what’s the most you would be willing to pay for him?

 

[IHEARTFF]

Not to sidetrack things but you bring up a great point because I'm a bit notorious for blowing off heavy WR investing early in drafts and thinking I can find guys all over the place. Last year was not the case and I felt the same way as you are indicating here. My question is why now? After years and years of talent rich WR draft did it seem more barren then normal?  I think this will change the way I draft in 2022.

Are you guys talking WR in general in 21 or rookies? Because to me the rookie WR class did well. The top 5 were Chase/Waddle/Smith/Bateman/E Moore and all are probably more valuable than they were last summer. St Brown gained value too. There's still potential for other 2nd round rookies like Toney and R Moore and N Collins. Class seemed fine to me. No major deep sleepers I guess.

 

[menobrown]

Are you guys talking WR in general in 21 or rookies?

I was for sure talking about WR's in general, NOT the rookie class.

Had wondered if it was more of a "me" issue last year on WR's. My top drafted player was by far Michael Thomas, followed by Antonio Brown. I believe Ridley was my third most drafted WR and for sure player I took in second round the most. These are more higher end WR's but obviously forced most of my WR4/5's into trying to be WR2/3 types and I found it more challenging then most years.

This got me to take a look at last year's WR2-4 type production and it does seems to be down a little so turned out to me a little more then a "me" issue. It does not seem like a big deal but WR24 on points was fairly close to WR24 in 2020 , scored 11 more points in 2020,.  WR24 on average per game was similar both years. As you dropped down into the WR3-4 area you started to see a drop from 2020. WR36 on points scored put up 25 less points and almost one full point per game less on average. Similar with WR48, 16 less points but 1.3 points per game on average.

It's just a point or so a game so seems small, but just seemed more difficult this year finding solid WR3 types.

 

[foxco]

I like him, looks like a good player. Hope he doesn't get Tyler Boyded or Michael Galluped though. 

 

[IHEARTFF]

I was for sure talking about WR's in general, NOT the rookie class.

Had wondered if it was more of a "me" issue last year on WR's. My top drafted player was by far Michael Thomas, followed by Antonio Brown. I believe Ridley was my third most drafted WR and for sure player I took in second round the most. These are more higher end WR's but obviously forced most of my WR4/5's into trying to be WR2/3 types and I found it more challenging then most years.

This got me to take a look at last year's WR2-4 type production and it does seems to be down a little so turned out to me a little more then a "me" issue. It does not seem like a big deal but WR24 on points was fairly close to WR24 in 2020 , scored 11 more points in 2020,.  WR24 on average per game was similar both years. As you dropped down into the WR3-4 area you started to see a drop from 2020. WR36 on points scored put up 25 less points and almost one full point per game less on average. Similar with WR48, 16 less points but 1.3 points per game on average.

It's just a point or so a game so seems small, but just seemed more difficult this year finding solid WR3 types.

That makes more sense for sure and there was a decent amount of misses across the WR platform and not too many deep hits. And part of it might be there seemingly was less consistency week to week among WR depth, making it really difficult when to know who is startable at flex, etc.

 

[barackdhouse]

what’s the most you would be willing to pay for him?

2nd. Preferably late. IDK. 

Are you guys talking WR in general in 21 or rookies?

In general like Meno said. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Anyway put me in the camp that Amon-Ra is a good WR2/3 type worth holding. 

I don't think anyone would argue otherwise on that. The discussion centers more on how much you value those 6 games to end the season (some see that as the norm going forward, some mostly certainly do not).

 

[Chapelboy]

Did I just overpay for Devin Singletary?  A '23 1st?  I like the kid, he finished the year strong, one more 'prove it year' on his contract..Bills seemed committed to him when they did run the ball and Allen wasn't option 1....I expect the pick to be a late first (somewhere between 1.9-1.12)  FBG has his value at 14 which is a mid-first...thoughts?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Did I just overpay for Devin Singletary?  A '23 1st?  I like the kid, he finished the year strong, one more 'prove it year' on his contract..Bills seemed committed to him when they did run the ball and Allen wasn't option 1....I expect the pick to be a late first (somewhere between 1.9-1.12)  FBG has his value at 14 which is a mid-first...thoughts?

Trade calc has it close (favoring singletary side a little) 

personally I may not have done it. I sold on Singletary 2 years ago, and it took until the end of this season for it to pay off. 

It seems like the Bills want a short yardage back who can bang it between the tackles.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them being in such a player (or give Moss his 27th chance) 

So the jury’s kind of out until FA & the draft. And maybe even until next year. 

On paper it’s a fair trade. Whether Singletary is the dude we saw down the stretch is a question mark.