Chapelboy
Footballguy
Good points all around, thanks. If I'm reading his analytics correctly on his FBG page, he scored in the 90th percentile on fantasy points from goal line and from red zone.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
yes - he's been really good. So what you have to hope for is that he continues to get those opportunities. And even late this season when he did he'd often run a stretch play or toss sweep. IIRC he's not a player the Bills want to bang up the middle.
Also depends on your league. Thee 2023 class is expected to be loaded with good RBs. How many of those slide to 9 is a question mark.
In my superflex league, more than 1 likely will, because there are expected to be a couple elite QBs + 1-2 elite WR as well (Boutte at least), but I could see Tucker or maybe Bigsby make it to 8-9 in SF.
In 1 QB leagues, I'm guessing several RB will go in the top 5. It's a really good RB class on paper. A lot can change in a season, and there will be risers & fallers. Bijan is probably a lock for 1.01 in 1 QB, and no later than 1.03-4 in SF leagues if he stays healthy and lands in a good RL situation.
Which leads to the final mystery of which player lands with which team.
Right now Singletary has something none of the 2023 RBs have, which is opportunity. I just don't know if he's the dude we saw down the stretch in 2021 where he scored 8 RuTD & 1 ReTD, or if he's closer to the dude who scored 4 Ru & 2 ReTD over a 24 game span his first 2 seasons. Maybe somewhere in the middle? Not that I doubt his talent, but the Bills like to mix it up.
When Moss went down (er, demoted? Healthy scratch?) they gave carries to Brieda (9 in one of the games). Bills homers can chime in, as they likely know their team better than I do, but my impression has been the Bills like to limit Singletary's workload.
Regardless of any of that stuff I just wrote, I think it's a fair deal. You didn't get taken, and some might say you profited. Time will tell if he's going to score that prolifically ever again. If your league is PPR even better. I like his age, too. Low mileage. And in a great offense.
I waffle on Singletary - now that I worked through it, I'm thinking I should try to get him back.
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I just think there’s still a chance the Bills grab a RB in the middle of the draft or a FA who significantly lowers Singletary’s value. That’s why I wouldn’t have done the trade. But it could end up worth it. And I hope it will, as Singletary is currently my RB1 in a dynasty.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That's the only real red flag. Either that or bring in a between the tackles banger via FA, or try to again make Moss a thing.
But I'll differ to Bills fans to get the best insight there.
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Chapelboy
Footballguy
it's an FFPC league. Yeah I thought about it considering the class coming out, but I am a huge fan of opportunity and with a good year maybe if the Bills don't give him the second contract he goes somewhere else...all speculation but I do think he's got the tools to succeed and be consistent. I already have Mixon and Conner but really wanted a stronger younger RB2 to hedge on Conner.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I would not pay that for Singletary but in a general sense anytime you have a RB whose value can be heavily tilted negatively by a FA or draft addition unless you think the deal won't be around I'd just advise holding off until at least bare minimum you get past that point.
I'd generally take it another step further and add unless again you think it's such a great deal I don't like doing any "win now" type trades until more like closer to kickoff or after season.
Singletary is not exactly an old guy but his talent level and one year remaining on his contract makes me question if he's more of an assist to 2022 then someone relied on as a foundation piece. That's why I put the win now label on him, perhaps he's more then that.
Chapelboy
Footballguy
Good points, thank you. I do generally hold off until FA or the draft to see what shakes out, but I admit with the history of this league I did feel some urgency to the deal. At 24, with what he's shown thus far, I feel his best years are ahead of him whether that be with BUF or not.menobrown said:
Couple of price checks.
1. Josh Jacobs - either in terms of a 2022 draft pick alone or as an upgrade from someone like Miles Sanders, Singletary or Damien Harris combined with a 2022 draft pick.
2. Stefon Diggs - what would it cost to get Diggs as an upgrade from McLaurin, Pittman, or Mooney?
1. Josh Jacobs - either in terms of a 2022 draft pick alone or as an upgrade from someone like Miles Sanders, Singletary or Damien Harris combined with a 2022 draft pick.
2. Stefon Diggs - what would it cost to get Diggs as an upgrade from McLaurin, Pittman, or Mooney?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
my trade calc has him worth almost exactly 1.05 (start 1 QB setting)
if I had Jacobs I’d hold.
Same calc has Diffs worth almost exactly 1.03
And if I had Diggs I’d hold at that price.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
So you are holding Diggs over pick 3 plus one of those guys? Or you mean Diggs for just pick 3.
I'm assuming that's for the pick by itself. Can't imagine that it would take pick 1.03 plus McLaurin to get Diggs.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I would hold Diggs and not accept a 1.03 in trade.
And FWIW I would also probably hold Diggs and not accept Scary Terry + 1.03 for him, though that’s a fair offer.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Wow.
I would hold diggs over 1.03 THIS year, but Mcclaurin and 3 is an instant accept
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
If i had Diggs, I’d still hold. A trade being fair doesn’t always mean it helps my team.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
We all have our preferences. I see Diggs as a weekly potential league winner.
Scary Terry has shown flashes, but the Commanders (
) still don’t have a great QB & that 1.03 doesn’t really help me win unless I hit on the pick. And 2022 is a pretty weak RB class. If that were a 2023 pick I’d smash accept.My logic also factors in that if I have Diggs I’m in “win now” mode so I’m not really factoring in his age.
anyway, just a knee-jerk call. I don’t have Diggs, so this is just mental gymnastics.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I mean, he might? We don’t really know that yet, do we? What if the QB they get is worse?
Is that a reaction to his “down” year (still a fine year, but ~25 fewer receptions & ~300 fewer yards) or just a general sentiment?
I dunno. I feel like Diggs is a lot more predictable than McClaurin right now.
DropKick
Footballguy
Absolutely. Scary Terry is a couple years younger and could make up the difference statistically with the anticipated QB upgrade. McLaurin is one of the WRs that I believe has been held back by middling QB play. I can see a preference for Diggs but it is usually very difficult to move near the top of a draft. The pick, to be made or traded, makes this an easy accept.
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ffmail4me
Footballguy
I guess being a Redskins fan, I just know his QBs have been awful since he entered the league. And I know guys like Ocho, and I can't remember who the other great retired WR was, but they talked about how good he really is, but we haven't seen his upside due to the offensive struggles. So you are correct in saying we don't know that yet, but I kinda think we do. I love Heineke's heart and moxy, but he has high school arm strength vs a legit NFL QB. Alex was a great story, but was a shell of himself pre-injury. Haskins is what he is, a huge bust. I think the chances they don't find a better QB (since the QB rating has been towards the bottom of the NFL the last 2 years) is like 5%.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
You know you would be allowed to retrade pick 3 right? Or even just repackage Terry and pick 3 for a better WR like Hill or Kupp.
I mean, the value is lopsided towards terry and pick 3. Use it. Theres more to evaluating a trade than assuming you are stuck with what you trade for.
Even if you were "stuck" with terry and pick 3, that's a big win. Just maybe not this season
I mean, the value is lopsided towards terry and pick 3. Use it. Theres more to evaluating a trade than assuming you are stuck with what you trade for.
Even if you were "stuck" with terry and pick 3, that's a big win. Just maybe not this season
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don’t disagree with your points, but the 2022 class isn’t getting much buzz for QBs - there are a couple ok ones, but nothing like 2021, and what 2023 projects to be. Plus rookie QBs often struggle to find success year 1.
I should also mention that I’m a huge Diggs guy going back to his Vikes days, and I’ve not been a big McClaurin guy, though I do agree QB is holding him back.
As I said, value-wise it’s fair. I’m just saying what I would do. Considering I haven’t won a ‘ship in 4 years, what I would do may not be for everyone.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh, I know. I started out giving my opinion on the value (said it was fair) and then opined on what I would do.
it was one of those 2-part answer type deals.’
Appreciate the replies about Diggs vs McLaurin and the other replies about general value of Diggs and Jacobs.
To add some context to my initial post, a new owner in one of my dynasty leagues has both Diggs and Jacobs but feels like he is in total rebuild mode and is looking for draft picks and/or younger players. I consider Diggs and Jacobs to be upgrades over most of the players on my roster. I don't even know if the other owner would trade Diggs or Jacobs but wanted to get a feel for what would be reasonable prices for them before I make offers. I don't have an early 1st round pick to offer this year so I'd be looking at offering a combo of a player and a late 1st at best.
To add some context to my initial post, a new owner in one of my dynasty leagues has both Diggs and Jacobs but feels like he is in total rebuild mode and is looking for draft picks and/or younger players. I consider Diggs and Jacobs to be upgrades over most of the players on my roster. I don't even know if the other owner would trade Diggs or Jacobs but wanted to get a feel for what would be reasonable prices for them before I make offers. I don't have an early 1st round pick to offer this year so I'd be looking at offering a combo of a player and a late 1st at best.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Ah - the context helps.
I think you’re right in the ballpark value-wise on both, and in your circumstance, I think you’d be smart to go after one or both if that owner will accept.
Both Jacobs & Diggs are quality pieces to a team that’s capable of win-now, and I like Jacobs chances at improvement with a new coaching staff in place. I certainly don’t see him as a declining asset, though McDaniels may utilize Drake more in the screen game.
Regardless, I’m not high on the 2022 draft, so if you can move picks & players to upgrade at those positions, I’d go for it.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I should mention this, I shopped Diggs in one of my dynasty leagues after his career year in 2020, and no one seemed to really want to acquire him. Maybe they wanted to see if he could repeat his numbers, and clearly he didn't this year compared to the year prior. So I'm not really sure what most would give for Diggs right now. I would think McLaurin and 1.3 is a best case dream type of offer though...
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foxco
Footballguy
Tough call, he showed some talent but his situation is still a bit unstable I'd think. If I had him I'd probably want a mid 1st rounder but don't think I'd get it. Maybe a late 1st would be more realistic but that's where he went in a decent number of drafts so I don't know that I'd move him for that.
I think he is an untradeable asset because this market will have too big a gap. Owners will want value that matches his potential and buyers will only pay if they can get value. There is probably a round gap in what owners are willing to sell for and buyers are willing to pay.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agreed. Owners are still fresh off of paying an early pick for him in most rookie drafts (depending on format), and while his rookie season as a whole wasn’t awesome, he had a few big games, showing promise. In particular the Halloween game against the Bengals highlighted his tremendous upside as both a rusher and receiver. The Christmas game against JAX left a nice impression of his future upside as well.
The only volatility is Wilson and how quickly he develops, but Carter looked like a player.
If I’m a Carter owner I’m holding. If I’m selling I probably want to profit on what I paid for him in my rookie draft.
So yeah - if buyers are looking for some sort of bargain, he’s probably not the best player for that.
FWIW I checked my calc & it has Carter worth the 2022 1.08 in 1 QB leagues. 1.11 in SF. I have the 1.08 & I’d be hesitant to offer that for fear of offending the Carter owner. I might throw it out there to see how they react.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yep - missed your post. that’s exactly my thought - he was good enough that if I’d recently picked him with the 1.09 (or whatever) why would I sell at break even?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That feels like a bargain. I wonder what the other dude’s motivation was?
I have 1.08 this draft - I may wait until draft day & when my pick is up, offer it to the Carter owner to see if I get a nibble. I’d love to have a share.
FFPC, 1 QB
gave: Mooney
got: 2023 1st
My question is at what point with some of these young WRs do you draw the line and go from moving them for a 1st and drawing the line and not moving them for that future 1st?
guys like Pittman, Bateman, claypool, Aiyuk, Jeudy, Mooney and Sutton. The position is so concentrated with young talent I took the gamble that the future 1st is more valuable than Mooney, who is currently my WR 5/6..
gave: Mooney
got: 2023 1st
My question is at what point with some of these young WRs do you draw the line and go from moving them for a 1st and drawing the line and not moving them for that future 1st?
guys like Pittman, Bateman, claypool, Aiyuk, Jeudy, Mooney and Sutton. The position is so concentrated with young talent I took the gamble that the future 1st is more valuable than Mooney, who is currently my WR 5/6..
This tells you that it's close and really comes down to where your team is at. If you are a contender right now and have a good shot to win the title in 2022 I think you take that trade and ride CMC and hope he stays on the field. If you are a couple years off I think I hold Najee and build around him.
steelcityman
Footballguy
Does OBJ have any value for 2022? Just throw him back into free agent pool at roster cutdown prior to rookie draft?
FWIW I have Najee on two teams that won last year and I would still stand pat.
One of those leagues Najee won for me I got him by dealing Dalvin Cook for Najee and a third a few weeks before the start of the season, a deal most everyone I told about said I lost-and that's ok. But really same theory behind me making that move as being of opinion I would not make the move on CMC. I just don't like to pay to get older at RB, I do like getting paid to get younger. Age gap between the two is only two years and I do like CMC more next year so understand the deal from both sides, but for me paying to get older at RB is not for me unless the gap between the two RB's is larger. I get this draft class is not outstanding but at this point, at least for the higher picks, it's starting to feel a little undervalued and I feel pretty good about getting a top level prospect at 1.4 and a young top prospect along with younger RB is the way for me.
I totally understand that view and would probably lean that way in most cases. I agree that getting an older RB that has a long injury history is not a typical way I like to go but CMC is a league winner when on the field. That's why if I had a title team already in place moving to get CMC could be an over the top move.........but totally understand if you wanted to stay put as well.
It's a really fair offer and I have no issue with either side.
I really don't see OBJ playing any meaningful role in 2022. I would have no issue getting rid of him going into 2022.
However, if I had space and it cost me nothing to keep him I could see holding for 2023.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Snap accept for me also. CMC and pick 4 easyyellowdog said:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I would take a 2023 1st for Mooney all day.BigAl21 said:
I dealt for Pittman, and feel like Wentz is killing his value. Would love to see Indy somehow restructure & deal him, but I’m not sure who’s gonna want him.
Thinking maybe I should offer him up for 2023 picks and see what I can pull.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Depends entirely on team needs. if you’re in a short roster league, he’s probably a cut. 30 year old coming off a 2nd ACL to the same knee, with a February injury makes his 2020 value highly questionable.steelcityman said:
Deep bench league, might as well hold until 2023 to see if he makes a comeback.
