yellowdog
Footballguy
yellowdog said:
SayWhat? said:
menobrown said:
BigAl21 said:
I've countered for him to include K. Hunt. He's a Steeler fan and I'm sure he REALLY wants Najee. Maybe I'm being greedy, but it's worth a shot.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Personally I'd hold. Enjoy Najee for what should be a long and solid career.
I was one of those who got bit by CMC this year. "fluke injury, otherwise healthy, blah blah blah" - that was me. But 2021 seemed like a snake-bit player who's huge workloads on a small-ish frame may simply be adding up.
Difficult to predict injury, but he'll be 26 in June, and both the Steelers & Panthers are without a quality QB. I trust the Steelers as an organization a bit more than I trust the Panthers, and to me that's a big factor.
It's a fair deal either way, especially if you can get CMC, Hunt & the 1.04. Worth noting, KHunt turns 27 by the time the season starts, so also not a spring chicken.
I guess it depends on your team's needs, and what you want at 1.04 in what many consider a relatively weak draft year.
I'd likely stand pat, but it'd be hard to turn down 1.04, Hunt & CMC. I'd probably do that if I had a strong team otherwise.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Birdie048
Footballguy
I don't know IF I could turn that down unless I was competing THIS YEAR AND PRAY CMC plays more than 12 games.. I would just expect to "flip" CMC next year or cry a lot.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Really that’s the only factor for me as well.
IF I had an otherwise young roster, I could totally see going for it this year with CMC/Hunt.
The 1.04 in 2022 isn’t as exciting to me as ‘21 or ‘23, so that piece doesn’t necessarily help as much as it otherwise might.
If my team is getting a little long in the tooth, I’d feel like adding CMC/Hunt compounds the issue.
That said, short-term it’s a lot of value to turn down for Harris.
Bur if CMC only gives you 5-6 games, you’re swapping Harris for Hunt & a maybe at 1.04, which doesn’t seem that helpful.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm not sure I get the "win now" talk as it relates to CMC and Harris. Why is CMC the "win now" choice in that equation? I know it's way early in the offseason but I'm guessing that CMC and Harris' ADP will be pretty close in redraft leagues. Harris may even end up going before CMC.
Probably because McCaffrey is nearly a lock to catch 100 passes per year, and as a result has averaged 23.6 (in his 5 full games), 30.1 (in 3 games), 29.5 (16 games), and 24.3 (16 games) points per game over the past four years. By comparison, Najee had a great rookie year at 18.2ppg, but did so pretty inefficiently at just 3.95 yards per carry and 6.3 yards per catch.
McCaffrey is one the very few true difference makers at any position when healthy. That’s obviously the key. But he’s not old, and has a skill set that should age well for fantasy football at the position in that he can be an elite pass catching specialist and still hold incredible value longer into his career. Again, health permitting.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
If CMC plays 17 (stop laughing!) I have him as more valuable than Harris for 2022.
you might be right though.
as @SayWhat?went into, CMC is a true difference maker when on the field. Harris isn't quite to that level. He probably could be with a decent QB and much better O-line but if I have all the pieces for a title run and can get the difference maker in CMC I most likely do it.
If I am rebuilding where his difference making ability just gets me in contention then I would rather limit the risk and go with the better long term outlook in Harris.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I get all that but “health permitting” is a real thing for him now. So yes if we can fully guarantee health next year CMC would go 1.01/1.02. I expect he’ll actually go around 1.07/1.08 which is the same range I’d expect Harris to go.
I’m generally one that thinks all RBs are “injury prone” in that all will get hurt at some point - but with CMC I really think one of the things that made him a fantasy stud - high volume usage - has done it’s damage and his body is giving in a bit. Obviously all of this is 100% speculation on my end - CMC could play in 17 games while Harris misses most of the season.
I agree with the people taking CMC and the 1.4, don’t get me wrong, but I’m just not so sure it’s necessarily the “win now” move.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Another factor for me is that Harris is a much better future bet than the nebulous 1.04 in what might be a weak draft class.
So “win now” also implies that a little future value is sacrificed by getting CMC.
Slam dunk accept IMO. Najee is only 2 years younger than CMC because he came out late. He’s going as the RB2 in startups and in many rankings, he’s never going to be more valuable. And IMO he’s not going to live up to that ranking production-wise given the state of the Steelers currently. If one is worried about CMC staying healthy, just flip him to someone else. He’ll still bring a ton in trade in many leagues.yellowdog said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yes, but the new CMC owner is also getting the 1.04 so that offsets the age difference. Off the top of my head (not positive) but I think Harris was an old rookie anyway.
And the upside in McCaffrey/1.04 is that it wouldn’t at all surprise me if the 1.04 netted a rookie perceived as close in value to Najee as we get into the 2022 season. Najee is nice, but I don’t think that he is an entirely special prospect in any sense. On top of a handful of fun wideout prospects in this class, there are some great landing spots that Breece, Spiller, and Walker could end up in which could give them heavy workload from day 1.
yellowdog said:
menobrown said:
Sorry but I take back what I posted. Upon reading other responses it dawned on me I messed up and put the 1.4 on the wrong side, thought the Najee owner was paying that to acquire CMC not the other way around. Guess I'm just conditioned to think CMC is a gold bar.
I posted a follow up response that I was not keen on paying to get older at RB even if made me a perceived little better. This ain't that, I'm getting paid to get a little older and IMO better and that I have interest in and in this case would accept that offer.
He definitely was. He’s getting ready to already be 24 in a couple weeks. Amazingly, CMC won’t even be 26 until June.
I’m sending Najee packing here.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Another variable is that both teams are in need of QB upgrade and CMC has been shown to be "QB-proof" while Harris has yet to show that skill. YET being part of the equation. Granted Ben's arm was not great and the Pitt WR did drop a few too many letting Def stack the box some, but if they stay with Mason, I would expect more 8-9 in the Box Def for Harris. CMC has seen it and still been effective.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I’m not sure if you watched a lot of Big Ben but he was pretty terrible last season - which is why he’s hanging them up.
rockaction
Footballguy
I think a bunch of people assumed it was Najee + 1.04 for CMC, not CMC + 1.04 for Najee. There was confusion in the thread, later addressed.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Admittedly, only a small viewing, but I realized his arm was shot. I was referring to his QB IQ in making decisions on the field. His experience and ability to make decisions was a positive, not his arm skill.
steelcityman
Footballguy
Its a FFPC league, so need to be cutdown to 16 before rookie draft.
QB: Herbert, Jones, Love
RB: Saquon, J Williams, Montgomery, Penny, Scott
WR: Claypool, Renfrow, OBJ, Juju, Rondale Moore, Collins, Toney, Gallup, D Peoples-Jones
TE: Fant, I Smith, B Jordan
K: Bass
Def: KC
Right now, I dont see room to keep him around for a December return. I do have 2 picks in every round, including 1st pick of each round, can probably add him back in the draft if I wanted.
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titusbramble
Footballguy
PPR superflex, just completed the following trade, normally I wouldn't give up a stud player for a bunch of bit part pieces but given my QB situation (Brady retired, Fitzpatrick/Bridgewater hugely uncertain, only Cousins and Mills probable 2022 starters) I pulled the trigger:
Gave: Justin Jefferson
Receive: Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow, Aaron Jones, Amon-ra St Brown
Gave: Justin Jefferson
Receive: Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow, Aaron Jones, Amon-ra St Brown
Sorry my friend, but this isn’t even close to enough for me to move a guy like JJ.
I think you are in the minority in terms of straight up, but yeah the 1.04 may be too rich to do that deal. But as many have discussed, win now status swings the value to a given team.
steelcityman
Footballguy
i have WR issues, tried to make some deals with all the picks I have, but couldnt, so will take Hall 1.01 likely as of today, and then hit WR hard late first and rounds 2-3.
steelcityman
Footballguy
CMC is the flashy dude, who is great when he plays, but I just cant look past the injury factor. Najee might not be as good next year while Steelers figure out the OL and QB, but when they do, and he is in year 3-4-5, look out!
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
wgoldsph
Footballguy
If the goal was to sure up the QB spot you should have gotten a top qb in return. As is Carr doesn't even move the needle here.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, that wasn’t an assumption, it was how it was originally presented. OP said my bad.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
So my trade calc says this is almost dead even in PPR 1-QB format, and in PPR SF you’re winning the deal 395-307, a pretty substantial difference.
That said, I would prefer the Jefferson side. Feels like AJones is a declining asset losing touches to the younger & bigger Dillon on a team that may be headed for a rebuild, and while I like ARSB & Renfrow, neither really comes close to sniffing what you’re losing at WR in JJ. Carr gives you depth, but while slightly underrated, he’s not an elite option, even in SF.
This seems like a case of winning the trade on paper but losing the trade for your team.
If you have a ton of holes at QB, RB, WR, I don’t completely hate it. I’d just rather build around JJ, or get a 2 for 1 with a better QB / RB coming back.
Someone here was saying “4 quarters don’t always equal $1” fairly often for a while - that seems to apply here. ETA, I think it was @barackdhouse. Credit where due.
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titusbramble
Footballguy
I do have huge holes at QB as stated in the original post and also at RB with Robinson getting injured, Henderson losing a bunch of value given that Akers appears to have had a remarkable recovery, and Kamara is doing dumb stuff. WR is probably my strength and I'll bring back Evans, Hopkins, Lockett and now St Brown and Renfrow, so while I do give up a WR1 for the foreseeable future and that sucks, given the context of my team I think it's defensible. And when people say Carr isn't an upgrade over Mills, I do have to laugh
In my league they were 1.2 pts per game different and Mills had two 20+ pt games and Carr had none. I think Carr has more security but I am not so sure that Mills isn't basically the same guy fantasy wise. Some will depend on the off season to see what happens with Watson and other weapons for Houston but as far as actual on the field performance for fantasy they aren't much different.
titusbramble
Footballguy
If Mills maintains a level into his sophomore year where he's playing at a level similar to Carr for fantasy purposes, I'm not going to complain
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
So in that light. I still don’t love it. I would have tried to sell Evans for a RB/QB-with-upside combo.
failing that, I think you could have maybe received more for JJ (a QB1/RB2 combo).
If I had Carr/AJones, ARSB & Renfrow and I could get JJ for them, I’d smash accept pretty fast.
Again, it’s not terrible value-wise. It’s just not a deal I’d make. Good luck.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Whether Carr ends up giving you an upgrade from Mills becomes somewhat irrelevant though because the point is Carr like Mills isn’t going to give you any advantage over your opponents even in Superflex. With that said no one really knows - it’s possible McDaniels makes Carr a fantasy asset. We’ll see.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Which side you like?
Would you like Aaron Jones/Elijah Mitchell better? Is that too much not enough?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Personally I prefer the Carter/Monty configuration. I don’t know what Aaron Jones looks like with Dillon’s role increasing.
And I like both Monty/Carter.
I also think the perception is that Jones/Mitchell is more valuable, but I suspect Monty/Carter has more longevity, but that’s a gut feel. I could be wrong.
Just to confirm you think both situations are realistic and in the ball park for either side
It really depends on the state of the roster that Cook is on. I don't think I would give him up for those pieces if my team was a title contender (top 2-4 teams in the league). But an owner who realistically sees his team in the 5-10 range should be accepting the offer to cash out on Cook.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I do, but I’m not sure if my sense is accurate.
I’d prefer both trades to rostering Cook. He’s injury prone & i am not that high on the Vikes offense. I feel like the diversification of either of the package deals makes a stronger team.
Ran them through my calc & got this:
Carter/Monty/2.08 = 290.x
Cook = 177.x
Calc see it as pretty lopsided.
————————-
AJones/Mitchell = 252.x
Cook = 177.x
————————-
surprisingly the calc sees the 2nd deal as closer, but still off.
huh. Might need to sweeten it up if you’re the one offering Cook.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agree - it’s a good cash out if you can pull it off, and even though the calc sees both as imbalanced, if you’re a Cook away from contention, I could see paying it.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Nobody (never say never I guess), well nobody with sense, is trading Cook for Jones and Mitchell.
Carter and Monty with the pick would get peoples attention, but if they were competing still probably not.
Carter and Monty with the pick would get peoples attention, but if they were competing still probably not.
