Early pattern to Ryan Mathews' usage (1 Viewer)

[Dino]

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2013/Sep/27/chargers-ryan-mathews-running-back-ken-whisenhunt/

Basically when on the field there is an over 89.5% chance the chargers will run the ball, the SD coaches just made it harder for him to run, it is simple the opposing teams just need to throw more men in the box.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I actually took a look at this in another thread..

Snap Percentages:

Ryan Mathews - 38% - 33% - 32%

Ronnie Brown - 45% - 18% - 22%

Danny Woodhead - 17% - 49% - 46%

Utilization

Ryan Mathews - 15 - 17 - 16 (45 rushing attempts, 3 targets)

Ronnie Brown - 7 - 4 - 5 (13 rushing attempts, 3 targets)

Danny Woodhead - 3 - 18 - 13 (14 rushing attempts, 20 targets)

Utilization to Snap Ratio

Ryan Mathews - 1.3:1 (78%) - 1.6:1 (62%) - 1.2:1 (83%)

Ronnie Brown - 3.4:1 (29%) - 3.8:1 (26%) - 2.6:1 (38%)

Danny Woodhead - 3:1 (33%) - 2.3:1 (43%) - 2.1:1 (48%)

He's being underutilized (Woodhead sapped all of his PPR value and Brown even vultured a TD last week) and his usage is being telegraphed. It's an awful situation for Mathews owners.

 

[ashishka]

So what is the value of Mathews and Woodhead going forward?

Is there any value to either of them?

 

[ghostguy123]

If we all can see this..............................

 

[SameSongNDance]

So what is the value of Mathews and Woodhead going forward?

Is there any value to either of them?

Over the past two weeks, Woodhead has 17 targets (15 receptions). There's definitely PPR value there. In fact, only Charles has more targets over that same two week span.

In PPR Woodhead has a much higher floor and is the one I'd rather own at this juncture (again, in PPR).

If we all can see this..............................

Yeah, I'm sure every team is fully aware.

 

[ghostguy123]

So what is the value of Mathews and Woodhead going forward?

Is there any value to either of them?

Over the past two weeks, Woodhead has 17 targets (15 receptions). There's definitely PPR value there. In fact, only Charles has more targets over that same two week span.

In PPR Woodhead has a much higher floor and is the one I'd rather own at this juncture (again, in PPR).

If we all can see this..............................

Yeah, I'm sure every team is fully aware.

31 of them anyway

 

[Baloney Sandwich]

He is on my bench this weekend

 

[ghostguy123]

He is on my bench this weekend

Me too. And if I am forced into some unforseen lineup change, I would play Snelling ahead of him.

 

[Shawn]

He is on my bench this weekend

Me too. And if I am forced into some unforseen lineup change, I would play Snelling ahead of him.

. I am starting Snelling over him...

 

[Dino]

I benched him also

 

[TheGreatSpinks]

He's being underutilized (Woodhead sapped all of his PPR value and Brown even vultured a TD last week) and his usage is being telegraphed. It's an awful situation for Mathews owners.

Last year was maddening, and didn't think there would be anyway he'd be underutilized the same exact way by a different regime. For a team with a dearth of offensive weapons, he showed in 2011 he was the best. Free Ryan Mathews.

 

[TheGreatSpinks]

Benched him in one league in place of Forte/Miller/Gio.

Starting him in another that's in year one of a rebuild... No choice.

 

[FF Ninja]

I actually took a look at this in another thread..

Snap Percentages:

Ryan Mathews - 38% - 33% - 32%

Ronnie Brown - 45% - 18% - 22%

Danny Woodhead - 17% - 49% - 46%

Utilization

Ryan Mathews - 15 - 17 - 16 (45 rushing attempts, 3 targets)

Ronnie Brown - 7 - 4 - 5 (13 rushing attempts, 3 targets)

Danny Woodhead - 3 - 18 - 13 (14 rushing attempts, 20 targets)

Utilization to Snap Ratio

Ryan Mathews - 1.3:1 (78%) - 1.6:1 (62%) - 1.2:1 (83%)

Ronnie Brown - 3.4:1 (29%) - 3.8:1 (26%) - 2.6:1 (38%)

Danny Woodhead - 3:1 (33%) - 2.3:1 (43%) - 2.1:1 (48%)

He's being underutilized (Woodhead sapped all of his PPR value and Brown even vultured a TD last week) and his usage is being telegraphed. It's an awful situation for Mathews owners.

He saw more snaps than Woodhead this week... 35-32-5 (Mathews-Woodhead-Brown) but unfortunately Woodhead got the two TD receptions.

He only touched the ball on 66% of his snaps, so they are becoming slightly less predictable... but that still equates to "extremely predictable". Mathews still has an uphill battle for yards with this usage. Screen plays won't even help that much. Why rush the QB when you can just play the run or cover Mathews if they don't run?

 

[SameSongNDance]

I actually took a look at this in another thread..

Snap Percentages:

Ryan Mathews - 38% - 33% - 32%

Ronnie Brown - 45% - 18% - 22%

Danny Woodhead - 17% - 49% - 46%

Utilization

Ryan Mathews - 15 - 17 - 16 (45 rushing attempts, 3 targets)

Ronnie Brown - 7 - 4 - 5 (13 rushing attempts, 3 targets)

Danny Woodhead - 3 - 18 - 13 (14 rushing attempts, 20 targets)

Utilization to Snap Ratio

Ryan Mathews - 1.3:1 (78%) - 1.6:1 (62%) - 1.2:1 (83%)

Ronnie Brown - 3.4:1 (29%) - 3.8:1 (26%) - 2.6:1 (38%)

Danny Woodhead - 3:1 (33%) - 2.3:1 (43%) - 2.1:1 (48%)

He's being underutilized (Woodhead sapped all of his PPR value and Brown even vultured a TD last week) and his usage is being telegraphed. It's an awful situation for Mathews owners.

He saw more snaps than Woodhead this week... 35-32-5 (Mathews-Woodhead-Brown) but unfortunately Woodhead got the two TD receptions.

He only touched the ball on 66% of his snaps, so they are becoming slightly less predictable... but that still equates to "extremely predictable". Mathews still has an uphill battle for yards with this usage. Screen plays won't even help that much. Why rush the QB when you can just play the run or cover Mathews if they don't run?

Thanks for the follow up. Any idea how many targets/carries Woodhead received? I'm trying to find out if his high volume of targets will continue. Like I said, he's definitely a flex option in PPR moving forward.

 

[FF Ninja]

Woodhead had 7 targets (5-52-2) to Mathews 4 targets (4-41-0).

ETA: Woodhead had 5 carries for 32 yards. Mathews had 19 for 62.

 

[One]

If this week is a sign of what's to come, it could be big for Mathews.

For the first time, they had both him and Woodhead on the field. Woodhead lined up as WR and Mathews at RB. I rarely saw Brown or McClain. I actually saw so little of Brown, I thought he was hurt.

It seems like they were using Mathews as a traditional RB and sparingly used Woodhead out of the backfield. Woodhead had one drive to himself where we saw a lot of draw plays and receptions, he also picked up a few receptions in 2min-O before the half. I wouldn't count on him catching wheel route TDs every week, but he is very effective in the pass and draw game. Looking at Woodhead's FF stat-line, you would have thought he was heavily involved, but he seemed to stay quiet, then erupt in the red zone. (Looks great catching passes)

On the other hand, Mathews finally looked like their starting RB. Caught dump-offs and ran hard on a number of carries, but more importantly, he didn't make any boneheaded mistakes.. If he is absorbing Brown's role and Weisenhunt keeps using Woodhead out wide, Mathews could be in for a big jump in production.

 

[menobrown]

I rarely saw Brown or McClain. I actually saw so little of Brown, I thought he was hurt.

Have not watched this game yet but due to Browns drastic reduction in snap counts was also wondering if he got injured? Anyone know? Makes a big difference to me, all the difference in the world really, in terms of if this last game was a sign of things to come or was it just due to a Brown injury making it a 2 headed RBBC instead of a 3 headed RBBC.

 

[RBM]

Like his chances this week if he gets 20 touches in Oakland.

 

[fruity pebbles]

He looked good. If he ever gets some holes he's going to have some very nice days. Guy has to be right up there in yards after contact as a % of his total yards.

 

[Hoosier16]

Some more interesting usage numbers from PFF:

Year     Run%     OL Rank     YPC2010     62%        14        4.32011     48%        27        4.92012     51%        29        3.82013     69%         3        3.5

It makes you wonder how good he could be if they mixed it up just a little bit.

 

[SportsGuru311]

I feel that their will be more value on Woodhead moving forward. I think Rivers and Mccoy have more confidence in him than Mathews.

 

[Phenix]

Can we start talking about Mathews as a huge bust now, a horrible first round pick.

 

[tdhartis]

Can we start talking about Mathews as a huge bust now, a horrible first round pick.

He may have been a bit of a reach for where he was taken in the draft, but I wouldn't label him a "huge bust" yet. He's only been in the league for four years, and unlike a hyped RB in NO people are already labeling a bust, Mathews has actually shown his talent when he is healthy and given the touches. I think he's a good candidate to bounce back with a change of scenery. If he leaves SD next year and fails again, I would start eying the "BUST" stamp.

 

[Otis]

You poor bastards are really stil waiting on this guy? Oof.

 

[Rushmore]

Can we start talking about Mathews as a huge bust now, a horrible first round pick.

The injury concerns are valid due to his track record, but skill-wise, I still think he has above average talent and that he's been under-utilized.

 

[tdhartis]

You poor bastards are really stil waiting on this guy? Oof.

Jump forward to "Coach Otis's 2014 All-Value Team" and he'll be at the top of the list. Get over yourself.

 

[Otis]

You poor bastards are really stil waiting on this guy? Oof.

Jump forward to "Coach Otis's 2014 All-Value Team" and he'll be at the top of the list. Get over yourself.

lol at "he's only been in the league 4 years, it's too early to call him a bust yet"

 

[FF Ninja]

You poor bastards are really stil waiting on this guy? Oof.

Jump forward to "Coach Otis's 2014 All-Value Team" and he'll be at the top of the list. Get over yourself.

lol at "he's only been in the league 4 years, it's too early to call him a bust yet"

I guess you detractors are just going to ignore 2011? And his usage patterns? His talent is pretty obvious, but even the slow witted people should take note of a top 10 season.

 

[Squintz82]

Have to say, if a change in coaching didn't increase his usage, there's really no hope for him.

 

[FF Ninja]

Yes, I had high hopes for a change in coaching, but it's not uncommon for a coach to bring in his own guy for his system and McCoy clearly likes Woodhead. He must see Mathews' talent or else he wouldn't be giving him so many carries, but he's not putting Mathews in a situation to succeed with the obvious running plays and the exclusion in the 2-minute drill. Any passing plays to Mathews seem to be an afterthought whereas Woodhead has plays designed for him where he is the primary target.

For Mathews fans it is unfortunate, but next year he will be a free agent so some coach who wants to utilize him can bring him in and make him "his guy". If Norv signs him in Cleveland I'm going to flip out.

 

[Phenix]

Yes, I had high hopes for a change in coaching, but it's not uncommon for a coach to bring in his own guy for his system and McCoy clearly likes Woodhead. He must see Mathews' talent or else he wouldn't be giving him so many carries, but he's not putting Mathews in a situation to succeed with the obvious running plays and the exclusion in the 2-minute drill. Any passing plays to Mathews seem to be an afterthought whereas Woodhead has plays designed for him where he is the primary target.

For Mathews fans it is unfortunate, but next year he will be a free agent so some coach who wants to utilize him can bring him in and make him "his guy". If Norv signs him in Cleveland I'm going to flip out.

At least you know what Mathews worth would be then, so while its not an ideal landing spot, you dont have to waste a pick on this schlub.

 

[RBM]

Yes, I had high hopes for a change in coaching, but it's not uncommon for a coach to bring in his own guy for his system and McCoy clearly likes Woodhead. He must see Mathews' talent or else he wouldn't be giving him so many carries, but he's not putting Mathews in a situation to succeed with the obvious running plays and the exclusion in the 2-minute drill. Any passing plays to Mathews seem to be an afterthought whereas Woodhead has plays designed for him where he is the primary target.

For Mathews fans it is unfortunate, but next year he will be a free agent so some coach who wants to utilize him can bring him in and make him "his guy". If Norv signs him in Cleveland I'm going to flip out.

FA after this season or after next season?

 

[FF Ninja]

Good catch. I don't know why I thought it was a four year deal. Son of a b...

8/1/2010: Signed a five-year, $20.467 million contract. The deal contains $15.083 million guaranteed, including a $3 million signing bonus, $911,000 first-year roster bonus, and second-year option bonus of $5,668,750. Another $5,183,750 is available through a "likely to be earned" onetime escalator. The sixth year voided based on Mathews participating in 35% of the offensive snaps in his rookie season, or 45% in any year thereafter. 2013: $1,195,500, 2014: $1,478,250, 2015: Free Agent