Early RBBC Returns (1 Viewer)

[toxic]

One of the things that surprised me the most this weekend was the extent to which many teams used true RBBC. In some cases, players still produced despite the divided workload (the Bells and McAllister/Bush), but the relatively even spread of carries across so many teams was still surprising. I did a quick count of distribution of carries across primary RBs for each team. To do this, I eliminated carries by FBs, WRs, QBs, or by spot duty RBs, as those types of carries will happen with every team, even those with workhorse backs. I then identified teams that had their feature back handle less than 70% of the RB load (again, runs by FBs, QBs, WRs, and spot duty guys are not included in the "RB load"). Following this, 6 teams had some serious RBBC going on:

NE: 52% Maroney/48% Dillon

DEN: 60% T Bell/40% M Bell

NO: 61% McAllister/39% Bush

TEN: 64% Brown/36% Henry

CHI: 65% Jones/35% Benson

IND: 69% Rhodes/31% Addai

As almost all of these players were drafted in the early/mid rounds, I think we are going to see some serious underperformance on many of these guys (relative to their draft position). Of course, many of these picks were made with a "swing for the fences" mentality with the hope that the pick would emerge as the workhorse back (or that the competition will injure himself somewhere along the line).

My question is this, who do we think might break fee of these respective RBBC situations? Those players would obviously be great trade targets at this point.

My guesses (and that's really all they are at this point): Maroney (I'm thinking the Dillon slide will continue) and T. Bell (given the potential lingering effects of M. Bell's injury). Other thoughts?

 

[Paprika]

One of the things that surprised me the most this weekend was the extent to which many teams used true RBBC. In some cases, players still produced despite the divided workload (the Bells and McAllister/Bush), but the relatively even spread of carries across so many teams was still surprising. I did a quick count of distribution of carries across primary RBs for each team. To do this, I eliminated carries by FBs, WRs, QBs, or by spot duty RBs, as those types of carries will happen with every team, even those with workhorse backs. I then identified teams that had their feature back handle less than 70% of the RB load (again, runs by FBs, QBs, WRs, and spot duty guys are not included in the "RB load"). Following this, 6 teams had some serious RBBC going on:NE: 52% Maroney/48% DillonDEN: 60% T Bell/40% M BellNO: 61% McAllister/39% BushTEN: 64% Brown/36% HenryCHI: 65% Jones/35% BensonIND: 69% Rhodes/31% Addai As almost all of these players were drafted in the early/mid rounds, I think we are going to see some serious underperformance on many of these guys (relative to their draft position). Of course, many of these picks were made with a "swing for the fences" mentality with the hope that the pick would emerge as the workhorse back (or that the competition will injure himself somewhere along the line).My question is this, who do we think might break fee of these respective RBBC situations? Those players would obviously be great trade targets at this point.My guesses (and that's really all they are at this point): Maroney (I'm thinking the Dillon slide will continue) and T. Bell (given the potential lingering effects of M. Bell's injury). Other thoughts?

I think these all stay aabout the same.1/ Rhodes will get the goalline carries + about 45% of the carries. Addai 55% of runs not many td's2/ C.Dillon looked really good as did Maroney. I see it as a 55/45 split for Maroney. BUT, Dillon gets all the td's3/ McCalister and Bush stay about the same. Duce gets the td's. Bush catches a ton of balls4/ Brown/Henry- I have no idea5/ C.Benson will get 60% of carries

 

[Paprika]

One of the things that surprised me the most this weekend was the extent to which many teams used true RBBC. In some cases, players still produced despite the divided workload (the Bells and McAllister/Bush), but the relatively even spread of carries across so many teams was still surprising. I did a quick count of distribution of carries across primary RBs for each team. To do this, I eliminated carries by FBs, WRs, QBs, or by spot duty RBs, as those types of carries will happen with every team, even those with workhorse backs. I then identified teams that had their feature back handle less than 70% of the RB load (again, runs by FBs, QBs, WRs, and spot duty guys are not included in the "RB load"). Following this, 6 teams had some serious RBBC going on:NE: 52% Maroney/48% DillonDEN: 60% T Bell/40% M BellNO: 61% McAllister/39% BushTEN: 64% Brown/36% HenryCHI: 65% Jones/35% BensonIND: 69% Rhodes/31% Addai As almost all of these players were drafted in the early/mid rounds, I think we are going to see some serious underperformance on many of these guys (relative to their draft position). Of course, many of these picks were made with a "swing for the fences" mentality with the hope that the pick would emerge as the workhorse back (or that the competition will injure himself somewhere along the line).My question is this, who do we think might break fee of these respective RBBC situations? Those players would obviously be great trade targets at this point.M.Bell gets the td's and about 50% of carries. T.Bell got more carries because they were playing on turf yesterday. M.Bell will be a monster in Denver.My guesses (and that's really all they are at this point): Maroney (I'm thinking the Dillon slide will continue) and T. Bell (given the potential lingering effects of M. Bell's injury). Other thoughts?

 

[ericttspikes]

Here's one that will probably change by mid-season. No way Dunn can carry close to 30 times a game, and now way can they keep the kid off the field IMO. He looked great.

ATL: Dunn 65% Norwood 35%

 

[jurb26]

One of the things that surprised me the most this weekend was the extent to which many teams used true RBBC. In some cases, players still produced despite the divided workload (the Bells and McAllister/Bush), but the relatively even spread of carries across so many teams was still surprising. I did a quick count of distribution of carries across primary RBs for each team. To do this, I eliminated carries by FBs, WRs, QBs, or by spot duty RBs, as those types of carries will happen with every team, even those with workhorse backs. I then identified teams that had their feature back handle less than 70% of the RB load (again, runs by FBs, QBs, WRs, and spot duty guys are not included in the "RB load"). Following this, 6 teams had some serious RBBC going on:NE: 52% Maroney/48% DillonDEN: 60% T Bell/40% M BellNO: 61% McAllister/39% BushTEN: 64% Brown/36% HenryCHI: 65% Jones/35% BensonIND: 69% Rhodes/31% Addai As almost all of these players were drafted in the early/mid rounds, I think we are going to see some serious underperformance on many of these guys (relative to their draft position). Of course, many of these picks were made with a "swing for the fences" mentality with the hope that the pick would emerge as the workhorse back (or that the competition will injure himself somewhere along the line).My question is this, who do we think might break fee of these respective RBBC situations? Those players would obviously be great trade targets at this point.My guesses (and that's really all they are at this point): Maroney (I'm thinking the Dillon slide will continue) and T. Bell (given the potential lingering effects of M. Bell's injury). Other thoughts?

So this is just for carries then. I would be more interested to see the numbers for total touches.

 

[DoubleG]

Here's one that will probably change by mid-season. No way Dunn can carry close to 30 times a game, and now way can they keep the kid off the field IMO. He looked great.ATL: Dunn 65% Norwood 35%

I don't know. While Norwood looked good, 132 rushing yards on 29 carries - that's 4.55 ypc - not exactly struggling. And those numbers were against a solid run D like the Panthers.

 

[Lemmiwinks]

Here's one that will probably change by mid-season. No way Dunn can carry close to 30 times a game, and now way can they keep the kid off the field IMO. He looked great.ATL: Dunn 65% Norwood 35%

I don't know. While Norwood looked good, 132 rushing yards on 29 carries - that's 4.55 ypc - not exactly struggling. And those numbers were against a solid run D like the Panthers.

I don't think anyone is questioning Dunn's running ability, just his ability to handle that kind of load at his age and at 185 LBS.

 

[jurb26]

Here's one that will probably change by mid-season. No way Dunn can carry close to 30 times a game, and now way can they keep the kid off the field IMO. He looked great.ATL: Dunn 65% Norwood 35%

I don't know. While Norwood looked good, 132 rushing yards on 29 carries - that's 4.55 ypc - not exactly struggling. And those numbers were against a solid run D like the Panthers.

I don't think anyone is questioning Dunn's running ability, just his ability to handle that kind of load at his age and at 185 LBS.

Yes, Dunn is a lot like Parker only cheaper and more consistent IMO. Dunn is not a guy that should see 25+ carries often. He is a great runner, no doubt. Still, GL and heavy work loads are not going to be common place for him.

 

[toxic]

NE: 52% Maroney/48% DillonDEN: 60% T Bell/40% M BellNO: 61% McAllister/39% BushTEN: 64% Brown/36% HenryCHI: 65% Jones/35% BensonIND: 69% Rhodes/31% Addai

So this is just for carries then. I would be more interested to see the numbers for total touches.

Easy enough. Adding in receptions, the picture changes a lot for McAllister/Bush and the Bells, but little elsewhere:NE: 51% Dillon /49% MaroneyDEN: 52% T Bell/48% M BellNO: 50% McAllister/50% BushTEN: 63% Brown/37% HenryCHI: 67% Jones/33% BensonIND: 66% Rhodes/33% AddaiIn fairness, I should also add in:NYJ: 64% Blaylock/36% BarlowOne note on these, I didn't wan't to go to the trouble of calculating targets in the passing game, so these latest stats only use actual receptions. Probably not a big deal, but has the potential to be misleading.

 

[jurb26]

NE: 52% Maroney/48% DillonDEN: 60% T Bell/40% M BellNO: 61% McAllister/39% BushTEN: 64% Brown/36% HenryCHI: 65% Jones/35% BensonIND: 69% Rhodes/31% Addai

So this is just for carries then. I would be more interested to see the numbers for total touches.

Easy enough. Adding in receptions, the picture changes a lot for McAllister/Bush and the Bells, but little elsewhere:NE: 51% Dillon /49% MaroneyDEN: 52% T Bell/48% M BellNO: 50% McAllister/50% BushTEN: 63% Brown/37% HenryCHI: 67% Jones/33% BensonIND: 66% Rhodes/33% AddaiIn fairness, I should also add in:NYJ: 64% Blaylock/36% BarlowOne note on these, I didn't wan't to go to the trouble of calculating targets in the passing game, so these latest stats only use actual receptions. Probably not a big deal, but has the potential to be misleading.

 

[LivingTheDream]

NE: 52% Maroney/48% DillonDEN: 60% T Bell/40% M BellNO: 61% McAllister/39% BushTEN: 64% Brown/36% HenryCHI: 65% Jones/35% BensonIND: 69% Rhodes/31% Addai

So this is just for carries then. I would be more interested to see the numbers for total touches.

Easy enough. Adding in receptions, the picture changes a lot for McAllister/Bush and the Bells, but little elsewhere:NE: 51% Dillon /49% MaroneyDEN: 52% T Bell/48% M BellNO: 50% McAllister/50% BushTEN: 63% Brown/37% HenryCHI: 67% Jones/33% BensonIND: 66% Rhodes/33% AddaiIn fairness, I should also add in:NYJ: 64% Blaylock/36% BarlowOne note on these, I didn't wan't to go to the trouble of calculating targets in the passing game, so these latest stats only use actual receptions. Probably not a big deal, but has the potential to be misleading.

Benson didn't play until the Bears were up 26-0

 

[Ministry of Pain]

NE: 52% Maroney/48% DillonDEN: 60% T Bell/40% M BellNO: 61% McAllister/39% BushTEN: 64% Brown/36% HenryCHI: 65% Jones/35% BensonIND: 69% Rhodes/31% Addai

Excellent thread topic bro!Maroney IMO will get more workload as the season progresses. As he picks up the blitz better and is trusted more you will see him get even more carries. Tiki Barber put on a clini last night against Indy on how to pass protect when he is not one of the hot receivers. Dillon will still get most of the goal line work IMO. A return to 12 TDs is likely for him.I think the Bells will flipflop on weeks and their production will be similar. Denver ran for at least 150+ yds in the game so their is no problem running the football for the Broncos...in fact they should run more.McAllister might have gotten 61% of the carries but Bush got 100% of the receptions. This is the perfect scenario for Reggie Bush owners...he is a great RB2 and flex player in PPR leagues.Brown/Henry...yuck!Jones/Benson...hard to gauge as Benson has been hurt...I didn't think Jones was anything special on Sunday...also has been nursing injuries...I could see benson get mroe carries at some point.Rhodes/Addai...Rhodes seems comfy in the offense...Addai didn't run with any authority to me...he had one nice run where he pancaked a guy at the end though...OK maybe he did run OK...this is a mess still at this point.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Here's one that will probably change by mid-season. No way Dunn can carry close to 30 times a game, and now way can they keep the kid off the field IMO. He looked great.ATL: Dunn 65% Norwood 35%

I don't know. While Norwood looked good, 132 rushing yards on 29 carries - that's 4.55 ypc - not exactly struggling. And those numbers were against a solid run D like the Panthers.

I don't think anyone is questioning Dunn's running ability, just his ability to handle that kind of load at his age and at 185 LBS.

OK, but how many carries will Dunn be limited to? There were 39 carries between him and Norwood which will not happen most weeks. A normal 30 carry a week load...Dunn will get 20-22 carries, Norwood about 8-10...anything over 30 carries between the 2 of them and DUnn will likely get those as well. I don't see this as RBBC actually. Just a good running team that will not want to burn Dunn out completely...it's not good for Dunn or Norwood.

 

[Lemmiwinks]

Here's one that will probably change by mid-season. No way Dunn can carry close to 30 times a game, and now way can they keep the kid off the field IMO. He looked great.ATL: Dunn 65% Norwood 35%

I don't know. While Norwood looked good, 132 rushing yards on 29 carries - that's 4.55 ypc - not exactly struggling. And those numbers were against a solid run D like the Panthers.

I don't think anyone is questioning Dunn's running ability, just his ability to handle that kind of load at his age and at 185 LBS.

Yes, Dunn is a lot like Parker only cheaper and more consistent IMO. Dunn is not a guy that should see 25+ carries often. He is a great runner, no doubt. Still, GL and heavy work loads are not going to be common place for him.

Well, Parker is younger, bigger and faster than Dunn, but Dunn is a wily vet.

 

[jurb26]

Here's one that will probably change by mid-season. No way Dunn can carry close to 30 times a game, and now way can they keep the kid off the field IMO. He looked great.ATL: Dunn 65% Norwood 35%

I don't know. While Norwood looked good, 132 rushing yards on 29 carries - that's 4.55 ypc - not exactly struggling. And those numbers were against a solid run D like the Panthers.

I don't think anyone is questioning Dunn's running ability, just his ability to handle that kind of load at his age and at 185 LBS.

Yes, Dunn is a lot like Parker only cheaper and more consistent IMO. Dunn is not a guy that should see 25+ carries often. He is a great runner, no doubt. Still, GL and heavy work loads are not going to be common place for him.

Well, Parker is younger, bigger and faster than Dunn, but Dunn is a wily vet.

All true, but when you say "wily vet" I think you mean has better vision and ability to find the hole/wait for blocks. I also think Dunn has some of the best change of direction skills in the NFL. Underrated and better than Parkers.