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Ebola (4 Viewers)

:thumbup: Love that chick.
yeah, but have you heard what the conservative talk show hosts are saying about her? I heard some snippets of Rush, Bill O Reilly, Hannity: the dislike is visceral and astonishing given the work she's done to help fight this disease.O Reilly went so far as to suggest she should be shot by police if she attempts to leave her house.
Yes, they are brave and heroic in their actions. But Dr. Spencer kind of ruined the arguement against quarantines. He did not follow guidelines and then lied about his activity. Now he came down with it and potentially exposed his fiancee and two friends to the deadly virus. Hoefully they are not infected. The odds are low this nurse has the virus. i think there have been about 150 volunteers (doctors/nurses) who enter the region and 6 have come down with the virus. So it is unlikely she has the virus, but still at a substaintial risk level. I think the courts are highly unlikely to side with her, so I am not sure what her deviance is going to accomplish.
Your numbers are off. where did you hear this?

 
Fennis said:
Ditka Butkus said:
timschochet said:
Josie Maran said:
:thumbup: Love that chick.
yeah, but have you heard what the conservative talk show hosts are saying about her? I heard some snippets of Rush, Bill O Reilly, Hannity: the dislike is visceral and astonishing given the work she's done to help fight this disease.O Reilly went so far as to suggest she should be shot by police if she attempts to leave her house.
Regardless what she has done in Africa....She is coming off like a selfish spoiled #####
She should be canonized.
More like cannon fodder.

 
jon_mx said:
But Dr. Spencer kind of ruined the arguement against quarantines. He did not follow guidelines and then lied about his activity.
Police maintain that Spencer lied to them about his whereabouts. I'll be interested to hear his side of the story later on, but for now we can assume he lied to them.

As for not "following guidelines" -- as far as we know, he did. Remember, the guidelines from MSF are not self-quarantine for 21 days ... but self-monitoring for 21 days.

I think we're seeing a clash of ideas here: the medical set feel the science is immensely on their side, and that if they feel well enough to get out of bed, they absolutely can't spread the ebola virus in any way whatsoever. Opposing them is a political set that trots out the "abundance of caution" and "we just don't know" mantras.

Is there a middle ground somewhere? I don't know.

 
jon_mx said:
But Dr. Spencer kind of ruined the arguement against quarantines. He did not follow guidelines and then lied about his activity.
Police maintain that Spencer lied to them about his whereabouts. I'll be interested to hear his side of the story later on, but for now we can assume he lied to them.

As for not "following guidelines" -- as far as we know, he did. Remember, the guidelines from MSF are not self-quarantine for 21 days ... but self-monitoring for 21 days.

I think we're seeing a clash of ideas here: the medical set feel the science is immensely on their side, and that if they feel well enough to get out of bed, they absolutely can't spread the ebola virus in any way whatsoever. Opposing them is a political set that trots out the "abundance of caution" and "we just don't know" mantras.

Is there a middle ground somewhere? I don't know.
what is it with these medical people,why would they want to take a chance of harming others, doesn't that go against what they stand for.

 
jon_mx said:
But Dr. Spencer kind of ruined the arguement against quarantines. He did not follow guidelines and then lied about his activity.
Police maintain that Spencer lied to them about his whereabouts. I'll be interested to hear his side of the story later on, but for now we can assume he lied to them.

As for not "following guidelines" -- as far as we know, he did. Remember, the guidelines from MSF are not self-quarantine for 21 days ... but self-monitoring for 21 days.

I think we're seeing a clash of ideas here: the medical set feel the science is immensely on their side, and that if they feel well enough to get out of bed, they absolutely can't spread the ebola virus in any way whatsoever. Opposing them is a political set that trots out the "abundance of caution" and "we just don't know" mantras.

Is there a middle ground somewhere? I don't know.
I don't really know that we need to find a middle ground between people who know what the #### they're talking about and people who don't.

 
what is it with these medical people,why would they want to take a chance of harming others, doesn't that go against what they stand for.
That's just it -- they are totally positive that they can't spread the disease.

In their calculus, "having treated an Ebola patient recently" doesn't play into it at all, at least not in and of itself. They truly believe that so long as they do not have serious, externally-expressive symptoms (i.e. beyond an early-onset fever), the fact that they treated Ebola patients is virtually meaningless.

For a lot of Americans, "Having treated Ebola patients" + "body temperature just went north of 99o" = "Insta-contagion, and probably has been for the last day or two"

For the aid workers, "Having treated Ebola patients" + "body temperature just went north of 99o" = "I've now got a heads up, but at worst I won't be contagious until I start vomiting/evacuating bowels"

The Ebola aid workers, I surmise, have "stared Ebola in the face" enough times that they've compartmentalized any risk or danger and packed it away somewhere mentally. And I guess every few weeks or so they work in country and don't catch Ebola, they get to feel more and more confident about not getting it.

 
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jon_mx said:
But Dr. Spencer kind of ruined the arguement against quarantines. He did not follow guidelines and then lied about his activity.
Police maintain that Spencer lied to them about his whereabouts. I'll be interested to hear his side of the story later on, but for now we can assume he lied to them.

As for not "following guidelines" -- as far as we know, he did. Remember, the guidelines from MSF are not self-quarantine for 21 days ... but self-monitoring for 21 days.

I think we're seeing a clash of ideas here: the medical set feel the science is immensely on their side, and that if they feel well enough to get out of bed, they absolutely can't spread the ebola virus in any way whatsoever. Opposing them is a political set that trots out the "abundance of caution" and "we just don't know" mantras.

Is there a middle ground somewhere? I don't know.
There is and we are not that far from it. When I see this picture of Dr. Spencer, this is what I see. Here is a guy who looks 100% confident that he has taken all the precautions and there is no way he can get the disease. But yet he did. Doctors are very smart people. But they aren't infallible. As much as this lady is probably right and has complete confidence that she is, she needs to be respectful of laws. Ebola does not spread easily, but it is also a relatively new virus and we should error on the side of caution. When doctors can go over there and none of them come back with the virus, we can have utmost confidence that we understand everything about the spread of the virus.

 
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I have no problem with her taking a bike ride or going out in public, if she is wearing a hazmat suit.
Why? She has no symptoms at all, and already tested negative for the Ebola virus.

Are people thinking that she's going to suddenly test positive for the virus at some point?

 
Fennis said:
jon_mx said:
timschochet said:
Josie Maran said:
:thumbup: Love that chick.
yeah, but have you heard what the conservative talk show hosts are saying about her? I heard some snippets of Rush, Bill O Reilly, Hannity: the dislike is visceral and astonishing given the work she's done to help fight this disease.O Reilly went so far as to suggest she should be shot by police if she attempts to leave her house.
Yes, they are brave and heroic in their actions. But Dr. Spencer kind of ruined the arguement against quarantines. He did not follow guidelines and then lied about his activity. Now he came down with it and potentially exposed his fiancee and two friends to the deadly virus. Hoefully they are not infected. The odds are low this nurse has the virus. i think there have been about 150 volunteers (doctors/nurses) who enter the region and 6 have come down with the virus. So it is unlikely she has the virus, but still at a substaintial risk level. I think the courts are highly unlikely to side with her, so I am not sure what her deviance is going to accomplish.
Your numbers are off. where did you hear this?
Here...........

A look at the numbers from groups such as Doctors Without Borders and the International Medical Corps shows just about 150 people have gone to help fight the epidemic in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. Of them, 47 have returned symptom-free.
Among those who have been infected: SIM’s Nancy Writebol and Dr. Rick Sacra, Dr. Kent Brantly of Samaritan’s Purse, Dr. Craig Spencer of Doctors Without Borders and an as-yet unidentified worker with the World Health Organization.
So 150 has gone. 47 have returned symptom-free. 5 have been infected. A nearly 10% infection rate.

 
When doctors can go over there and none of them come back with the virus, we can have utmost confidence that we understand everything about the spread of the virus.
Here is where your calculus and theirs deviate:

You feel like Ebola's "hit rate" among our medical volunteers needs to get down to 0%.

They don't feel a 0% hit rate is achievable, so they only concern themselves with presentation of serious external symptoms. It's totally acceptable for handfuls of aid workers to come back to the U.S. infected, so long as they follow MSF's guidelines to self-monitor upon arrival and self-quarantine when they detect a fever.

 
When doctors can go over there and none of them come back with the virus, we can have utmost confidence that we understand everything about the spread of the virus.
Here is where your calculus and theirs deviate:

You feel like Ebola's "hit rate" among our medical volunteers needs to get down to 0%.

They don't feel a 0% hit rate is achievable, so they only concern themselves with presentation of serious external symptoms. It's totally acceptable for handfuls of aid workers to come back to the U.S. infected, so long as they follow MSF's guidelines to self-monitor upon arrival and self-quarantine when they detect a fever.
And I don't feel a handful means greater than 10%. This virus may be a little more contageous and spread a little differently than they understand.

 
I have no problem with her taking a bike ride or going out in public, if she is wearing a hazmat suit.
Why? She has no symptoms at all, and already tested negative for the Ebola virus.

Are people thinking that she's going to suddenly test positive for the virus at some point?
Yes, up to 21 days from her last contact with an Ebola patient.
I don't think the test usually shows positive until after the symptoms show up. If the test worked where it could tell before symptoms, it would solve a lot of problems.

 
Isn't that how it works?
After a negative test? I have to admit that any test can have flaws. Maybe she should take a second one? :shrug:
I might be wrong, but the test is only testing to see if she is infected now. It can't tell if she's completely free of it, can it? Like, the doctor from NY who has Ebola, if he would have been tested prior to getting sick, he would have tested negative for Ebola, right?

Or am I misunderstanding this?

 
I have no problem with her taking a bike ride or going out in public, if she is wearing a hazmat suit.
Why? She has no symptoms at all, and already tested negative for the Ebola virus.

Are people thinking that she's going to suddenly test positive for the virus at some point?
Yes, up to 21 days from her last contact with an Ebola patient.
I don't think the test usually shows positive until after the symptoms show up. If the test worked where it could tell before symptoms, it would solve a lot of problems.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/10/28/359567808/blood-test-for-ebola-doesnt-catch-infection-early

 
I have no problem with her taking a bike ride or going out in public, if she is wearing a hazmat suit.
Why? She has no symptoms at all, and already tested negative for the Ebola virus.

Are people thinking that she's going to suddenly test positive for the virus at some point?
Yes, up to 21 days from her last contact with an Ebola patient.
I don't think the test usually shows positive until after the symptoms show up. If the test worked where it could tell before symptoms, it would solve a lot of problems.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/10/28/359567808/blood-test-for-ebola-doesnt-catch-infection-early
Thanks for posting that- I've been wondering about the testing.

On the plus side, this pattern of infection also explains why people infected with Ebola aren't a risk to others until they actually fall ill with symptoms.
 
I don't think the test usually shows positive until after the symptoms show up. If the test worked where it could tell before symptoms, it would solve a lot of problems.
A lot of movnig parts here:

Talks With Ebola Nurse Kaci Hickox Fail, Governor to Use 'Full Authority' - Hickox has, in fact, passed two Ebola tests so far. The governor of Maine wants her to pass a third one. Some more from this article:

The CDC doesn't consider health workers who treated Ebola patients in West Africa to be at "high risk" for catching Ebola if they were wearing protective gear, according to new guidelines announced this week. Since they have "some risk," the CDC recommends that they undergo monitoring -- tracking symptoms and body temperature twice a day -- avoid public transportation and take other precautions. But the CDC doesn't require home quarantines for these workers.

Someone isn't contagious until Ebola symptoms appear, according to the CDC. And even then, transmission requires contact with bodily fluids such as blood and vomit.
... and also:

Medical experts have said that an Ebola test would only be positive if someone were symptomatic, and could register a negative result if the amount of Ebola virus in the blood hadn’t reached a detectable level.
But some recent developments may change that - Interest in Utah company’s Ebola test surges after FDA approval (10/29/2014). This particular test can detect the virus in the blood about a day before the fever would start:

Interest in a Utah company’s quick test for Ebola has surged since the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved it for emergency use by hospitals over the weekend.

"We certainly have gotten a lot of interest, most of it from hospitals that just want to be prepared," said Randy Rasmussen, chief executive of BioFire Diagnostics, a sister company of BioFire Defense, which secured the FDA approval on Saturday.

The FDA approved two BioFire tests on Saturday: one for use in laboratories that serve the U.S. military and another for general hospitals. The Ebola test panel was first developed for the military, which has been using it in West Africa.
.
 
I might be wrong, but the test is only testing to see if she is infected now. It can't tell if she's completely free of it, can it? Like, the doctor from NY who has Ebola, if he would have been tested prior to getting sick, he would have tested negative for Ebola, right?

Or am I misunderstanding this?
You are correct. Apparently, Hickox is not personally out of the woods re: Ebola contraction.

I stll maintain that she can't spread the virus to other people until she gets some post-fever symptoms.

 
Hot Diggity Dog said:
matuski said:
Hot Diggity Dog said:
Harry Manback said:
jon_mx said:
Harry Manback said:
Ditka Butkis please explain: if the flu is more contagious than Ebola, and kills many more people than Ebola (in ratios of thousands to one) then why not quarantine anyone who doesn't get a flu shot?
No offense but the flu argument is silly....Most can and have survived the flu many times with zero medical attention ..How many people have survived Ebola without medical attention..
ask the 40,000 people who die every year of flu how silly it is,
You mean the elderly and people with compromised immune systems/children? Great argument. Compelling. Give me more.
The flu kills a lot of otherwise healthy adults too. It is not clear exactly how many the flu itself kills, but it plays a role in lots of deaths and is a serious problem.
Flu kills anywhere between 5,000-50,000 people each year in the US5-20% of the population will get the flu each year in the US.

That means, on the low end (5%) 15.8M people get the flu.

If you take the high end of fatalities, and the low end of flue numbers, that is .0003% of the people who get the flu, will die.

If you go the other way, and take the low end of fatalities and high end of flu "victims" it is number too small for my calculator to give me.

Granted, I suck at math so please, feel free to check my work and tell me how comparing the two diseases isn't completely ludicrous.

Even if you take the 12% mortality rate of Ebola in the US it's still absurd to compare the two.
And you can get a flu shot that usually helps fight it. If your worried about it.
And even then it is more of a threat to you than ebola.
And why it is a silly comparison. The flu is established in our population and it is not going anywhere. It seems that aggressive treatment and actions like quarantine would be important so ebola doesn't establish itself in a non human population and thus present the potential for outbreaks like in Africa. I'm not altering my own actions, but on the other hand why wouldn't we want the CDC to aggressively try to prevent a virus like this from becoming established here? Is that not what they're here for?
I'll keep repeating that indeed it is a silly comparison, flu is exponentiallyjonmx more threatening to us than ebola. I'd rather see the attention placed there to educate people on the benefits and value of vaccines.

Why aggressively quarantine non contagious individuals? Accomplishes nothing but to encourage misinformation and fear.

 
I just read on another board (uncited) that Hickox's quaratine tent in NJ had only a non-flush toilet and nothing else in it.

Is that correct? Was there no bed or cot or something? No nothing else at all? If that's accurate, I much better understand where she was coming from.

EDIT: This article (a good read on its own**) shows a picture of the inside of Hickox's tent. Well, there was more in there than a toilet ... but not much to pass the time.

** Ebola: Expert sees 'Scarlet E' in quarantine response (10/28/2014)

 
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Hot Diggity Dog said:
matuski said:
Hot Diggity Dog said:
Harry Manback said:
jon_mx said:
Harry Manback said:
Ditka Butkis please explain: if the flu is more contagious than Ebola, and kills many more people than Ebola (in ratios of thousands to one) then why not quarantine anyone who doesn't get a flu shot?
No offense but the flu argument is silly....Most can and have survived the flu many times with zero medical attention ..How many people have survived Ebola without medical attention..
ask the 40,000 people who die every year of flu how silly it is,
You mean the elderly and people with compromised immune systems/children? Great argument. Compelling. Give me more.
The flu kills a lot of otherwise healthy adults too. It is not clear exactly how many the flu itself kills, but it plays a role in lots of deaths and is a serious problem.
Flu kills anywhere between 5,000-50,000 people each year in the US5-20% of the population will get the flu each year in the US.

That means, on the low end (5%) 15.8M people get the flu.

If you take the high end of fatalities, and the low end of flue numbers, that is .0003% of the people who get the flu, will die.

If you go the other way, and take the low end of fatalities and high end of flu "victims" it is number too small for my calculator to give me.

Granted, I suck at math so please, feel free to check my work and tell me how comparing the two diseases isn't completely ludicrous.

Even if you take the 12% mortality rate of Ebola in the US it's still absurd to compare the two.
And you can get a flu shot that usually helps fight it. If your worried about it.
And even then it is more of a threat to you than ebola.
And why it is a silly comparison. The flu is established in our population and it is not going anywhere. It seems that aggressive treatment and actions like quarantine would be important so ebola doesn't establish itself in a non human population and thus present the potential for outbreaks like in Africa. I'm not altering my own actions, but on the other hand why wouldn't we want the CDC to aggressively try to prevent a virus like this from becoming established here? Is that not what they're here for?
I'll keep repeating that indeed it is a silly comparison, flu is exponentiallyjonmx more threatening to us than ebola. I'd rather see the attention placed there to educate people on the benefits and value of vaccines.

Why aggressively quarantine non contagious individuals? Accomplishes nothing but to encourage misinformation and fear.
Because who knows where this person will be if or when they become contagious? I may feel fine when I leave for my seven day cruise.

 
So I went to get a flu shot. They asked me if I had had any contact with people from a list of countries and whether I had any contact with anyone that had the E. Thought that was somewhat ironic.

 
I just read on another board (uncited) that Hickox's quaratine tent in NJ had only a non-flush toilet and nothing else in it.

Is that correct? Was there no bed or cot or something? No nothing else at all? If that's accurate, I much better understand where she was coming from.

EDIT: This article (a good read on its own**) shows a picture of the inside of Hickox's tent. Well, there was more in there than a toilet ... but not much to pass the time.

** Ebola: Expert sees 'Scarlet E' in quarantine response (10/28/2014)
I would tend to agree, but she has the same issue with being in her own house. Her stance isn't about the conditions. I don't think she needs to be quarantined to the extent they're saying she should be, but her being defiant is not going to be helpful if there are future cases where people actually should be quarantined.

 
Fennis said:
jon_mx said:
timschochet said:
Josie Maran said:
:thumbup: Love that chick.
yeah, but have you heard what the conservative talk show hosts are saying about her? I heard some snippets of Rush, Bill O Reilly, Hannity: the dislike is visceral and astonishing given the work she's done to help fight this disease.O Reilly went so far as to suggest she should be shot by police if she attempts to leave her house.
Yes, they are brave and heroic in their actions. But Dr. Spencer kind of ruined the arguement against quarantines. He did not follow guidelines and then lied about his activity. Now he came down with it and potentially exposed his fiancee and two friends to the deadly virus. Hoefully they are not infected. The odds are low this nurse has the virus. i think there have been about 150 volunteers (doctors/nurses) who enter the region and 6 have come down with the virus. So it is unlikely she has the virus, but still at a substaintial risk level. I think the courts are highly unlikely to side with her, so I am not sure what her deviance is going to accomplish.
Your numbers are off. where did you hear this?
Here...........

A look at the numbers from groups such as Doctors Without Borders and the International Medical Corps shows just about 150 people have gone to help fight the epidemic in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. Of them, 47 have returned symptom-free.
Among those who have been infected: SIM’s Nancy Writebol and Dr. Rick Sacra, Dr. Kent Brantly of Samaritan’s Purse, Dr. Craig Spencer of Doctors Without Borders and an as-yet unidentified worker with the World Health Organization.
So 150 has gone. 47 have returned symptom-free. 5 have been infected. A nearly 10% infection rate.
That's not how statistics work, and this is a ridiculous statement. There are quite a few problems with this, but here are a few.

1. You can't assume the doctors who haven't returned yet have an equal chance of catching the disease as those who specifically returned home because they were already symptomatic. 3 of the five that are mentioned returned to the U.S. because they were already sick.

2. Unless you think that Americans have a genetic predisposition to catching Ebola that other westerners don't have, it's silly to only use the small sample of (1) American personnel from (2) organizations that responded to NBC's request, to extrapolate an infection rate. A much more logical sample group would be something like "Workers from the West, (meaning the U.S. and Europe) using available information and recommended protocol."

3. Fortunately for us, that sample is easy to figure out. As Doctors Without Borders' site clearly explains

At present, there are more than 3,200 MSF staff working on Ebola in West Africa. The total number of people who have worked in Ebola projects since MSF began its intervention last March is significantly higher. To date, 24 MSF staff have contracted Ebola and 13 have died.
That means, at the very least, that 3,200 workers have been on the ground dealing with disease, although it's clearly a much higher number. However, using even the number of ONLY the workers who are CURRENTLY there, 24 infections of 3,200 people is less than a 1% infection rate. Also keep in mind that this means working with people in Ebola wards, where there is presumably bodily fluid everywhere.

 
Because who knows where this person will be if or when they become contagious? I may feel fine when I leave for my seven day cruise.
This actually is considered in the CDC and MSF guidelines -- returning aid workers are supposed to avoid public transportation during the self-monitoring period.

But putting aside from the going-on-a-cruise scenario: there won't be a case where an ebola-infected person feels good upon waking, starts off their usual daily routine, and then during the day gets so sick that he/she spreads the virus to another person.

 
... [Hickox] being defiant is not going to be helpful if there are future cases where people actually should be quarantined.
Agreed. My concern is that she starts some kind of a grand-scale unrination match that results in truly ugly treatment of returning aid workers. In turn, it would lead to aid workers declining to go help in the hot zone, and exacerbating the epidemic in West Africa.

 
Because who knows where this person will be if or when they become contagious? I may feel fine when I leave for my seven day cruise.
This actually is considered in the CDC and MSF guidelines -- returning aid workers are supposed to avoid public transportation during the self-monitoring period.

But putting aside from the going-on-a-cruise scenario: there won't be a case where an ebola-infected person feels good upon waking, starts off their usual daily routine, and then during the day gets so sick that he/she spreads the virus to another person.
Is this the old "abundance of caution"? I keep hearing that if there are no symptoms, you should be able to do whatever you want so I'm wondering why the guideline is set here.

 
Because who knows where this person will be if or when they become contagious? I may feel fine when I leave for my seven day cruise.
This actually is considered in the CDC and MSF guidelines -- returning aid workers are supposed to avoid public transportation during the self-monitoring period.

But putting aside from the going-on-a-cruise scenario: there won't be a case where an ebola-infected person feels good upon waking, starts off their usual daily routine, and then during the day gets so sick that he/she spreads the virus to another person.
Is this the old "abundance of caution"? I keep hearing that if there are no symptoms, you should be able to do whatever you want so I'm wondering why the guideline is set here.
Speculatively, I think the concern behind that guideline is similar to what Two Deep expressed -- you want to be stuck on the L or something when your first Ebola vomit kicks in.

Also, there's this scenario: you're on the subway and you see one of your buddies for the first time since your tour in Liberia. Your buddy walks up to you and says "Hey, Joe, what's up? How was Liberia?" Sets off a panic on the subway.

 
I think it's a sad reflection on the US that Cuba has sent more workers than the most prosperous country in the world. As a superpower, sometimes the us sucks at leading.

 
I think it's a sad reflection on the US that Cuba has sent more workers than the most prosperous country in the world. As a superpower, sometimes the us sucks at leading.
:lmao: ....Cuba is doing that to make a political statement. Meanwhile it's people have no medical treatment. But hey, it is free.

 

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