renesauz
IBL Representative
I told eveyone involved that I was keeping a blog during the White Elephant draft, with the plan to post the blog, and later write an article on it. I'm sorry for being so slow to post this, and even more sorry that it's incomplete. IN the past 5 weeks, I've experienced the birth of a premature grand-daughter, the purchase of a new computer, four SEPERATE instances of bank/credit card fraud, a false arrest, two minor robberries and one very serious robbery (I'm back on my old computer!) Needless to say, I haven't had much time or effort for extra stuff lately (It's been enough just to log in and keep up with other drafts).
This blog only covers the first half of the draft, but I may add more commentary on the second half later (If people are interested and I can find the time).
White Elephant BLOG
Wed March 14 (First round)
1 PM : In the first attempt at the White Elephant draft, I had the second pick. At that time I figured the best strategy for an early first round pick would be to take a player certain not to be wanted/drafted in the first round. The idea was to NOT have to use a steal in the first. No way I was going to take LT. It wasn't until I had the draft set up and was ready to draft that I realized my logic was right, but NOT COMPLETE. I could draft a player rankied in the 4-6 area, and chances were good he'd slide through. The middle guys weren't likely to risk using a steal, and the guys at the end would be eyeing LT, LJ, and Steven Jackson. Westbrook was perfect here. IN PPR, he's easily top five (ranked 4 in WSL ADP), so he's still a solid early-mid first round selection. Hopefully it works out, but if not I can excercise a steal and still be ok. As a Philly Homer, my fingers are crossed anyway.
4 PM: The next three picks were only mild surprises...picks unlikely to be stolen, but barely of first round quality. Leaves me a little more nervous about holding Westbrook. Then Duckboy takes LT at 1.05, declaring that he "has a plan". Bush, Portis and S. Jackson fall in rapid succession.
6 PM: The first steal of the draft! This happened a little earlier then I thought it would. The surprise is the who/where. Rudnicki stole LT with the 1.11 pick. I can see immediately this is a wasted steal. LT is the consensus #1 pick in a normal draft, and is certain to be stolen, and locked, by Rudy at the turn. Ruds has wasted a steal. I've started to get a few PM's clarifying rules. Mostly, it's just guys that are remembering rules from the first White Elephant draft attempt, and are clarifying the clock and when people have to repick after they get robbed. Duckboy and I have started to PM a lot discussing strategy.
8:30 PM: A bit of a discussion about why we re-rolled draft order. After thinking about it, I realized there wasn't an overwhelming need to have done so, but it's too late to change that now. I'm getting overwhelmed with PM's now. FBG's might want to reprogram how you answer them on their system...you get booted from the page you're looking at to answer the PM.
2 AM: I'm going to hate myself in the morning! Lots more PM's to clarify things. A couple more steals have happened, and I've had to figure out how to best keep post #1 (the pick summary) up-to date and legible. A lot more PM-ing with Duckboy. There's a couple guys who seem to be struggling with the complicated strategies this draft presents, but Duckboy has it down. Rudy stole LT at the turn as expected. Duckboy and I realize there are several players taken right after his initial LT pick that NOBODY would be able to steal from him. Duckboy decided to steal Reggie Bush now, leaving open the possibility of excercising another steal when his normal turn comes up. Westbrook made it through the first round, and I can see now that with careful picking and stealing, the #1 draft position is still the best slot to have, even in this format.
THURS March 15th: (early second round)
10 AM: Had to do a little bit more explaining in the draft thread about clock rules. I'm a little surprised that anybody is still confused. I'm realizing that keeping post #1 up to date is a MUCH harder task then in a normal draft. If I don't do a good, accurate job with it, this draft could quickly degenerate into a cluster$@#% almost as quickly as the first Elephant attempt.
1 PM: I made a post reminding people to use the steal test religously. Duckboy beged me to delete the post, but after all the confusion of the last 16 hours or so, I've left it in place. While I agree with Ducky in principle, this is a unique and unusual format. It seems more fair to make sure everyone understands the rules.
4 PM: No big surprises in the picks. The middle guys are mostly picking near ADP and saving their steals. It's becoming obvious who is picking up on the strategy, and who isn't. Reaper made a nice move to steal the 2.01 pick (S. Alexander) and immediately block his pick with his second round pick. This is the first time someone not at the end pulled this manuever. Not great early round value for Reaper, but he's in better shape then a couple of others. I'm a bit worried about a couple of guys and how well they are picking up the strategies to employ.
6 PM: The first real glich in the matrix. Someone has pointed out a potential loophole in the steal test which could allow a person to steal their pick back. Easy fix to simply add another step to the steal test and close the loophole.
9 PM: Steals have been flying off the board! There's at least 4 guys with repicks outstanding. I've been noticing a lot of familiar FBG's poking into the draft thread who aren't part of this draft. Apparently there are plenty of guys interested in whether this thing works or not, but weren't brave enough to actually be a part of it.
1 AM: At least I'm on vacation now! Earlier in the evening I had planned on stealing Chad Johnson for my 2.14 pick, but I realized at the last minute that if I did so, I might be in trouble to secure a solid RB2. I love Westbrook for Rb1, but he's missed significant time to injury before. Instead, I stole Rudi Johnson. Great value here. His WSL ADP was RB11...pick 11! Since I locked him up immediately, I now have a terrific 1-2 combo. I want a WR for my third pick, but the guys I'm eyeing won't survive to the end of the round without getting stolen. I picked Cedric Benson. At least 6 guys are still looking for a RB2, so Benson is sure to be stolen, leaving me a great chance to steal a nice WR1 late in the round. If I can time it right, I might be able to secure an unstealable player using the same strategy Duckboy employed in the first round.
Friday March 16th: (early third round):
12 PM: I'm going on very little sleep as my youngest had me up all night sick. My oldest is also desperately ill, so I can't even get a nap. Nice way to start vacation! At least I could cancel my trip, and stay on top of this draft. Post 1 is getting to be a nigtmare, as steals are still flying around. Several of them seem silly to me. Radballs in particular. He picked Larry Fitzgerald at 3.02. I knew that pick had no chance to survive the round. Fitz was on my short list of steals for late in the round. Jeff made the same type of mistake at 3.04 with Boldin. Reaper obviously has the strategy down as he stole Fitz with a make-up pick, and immediately locked him up with Roy Williams. I'm thinking Williams isn't likely to last either. It seems the guys between the ends and the middle are burning steals up quickly.
3 PM: LOT'S OF DRAMA! Two guys messed up. First, Pasquino picked Roy Williams as a replacement pick for a stolen Boldin. Jeff didn't realize Williams was already drafted, even though post #1 was up to date at the time. Ruffrodys rubbed it in, and Jeff was kicking himself for what might be a wasted steal. Jeff got the last laugh though. Rodys was so busy worrying about what Jeff did, that he posted the drafts first illegal steal! It took only about 3 minutes for someone to point it out, and Rodys owned up to it. Seems to be a lot of silly steals going on at the moment. Meanwhile, Fro stole Benson from me...perfect! Radballs stole Boldin to make up his stolen player. Why now? That's certain to be a wasted steal since he has no way to protect him from being stolen again. Boldin is also on my short list.
2 AM: Pretty slow going today..still in the third round. This was expected though, as a couple of people are out of town for the NCAA tourney. The clock has been turned off until Monday. Looking ahead, I'm in great shape to steal either Boldin, or Reggie Wayne once LHUCKS picks later this round. stealing Wayne would really hurt Rudy, since that's his second round pick, and he took from the player pool while the 1.03 pick was on the clock. At least Rudy has LT. At this point in the draft, it's obvious that those who understand blocking strategy are at a significant advantage. It's also obvious that everyone seems to be greatly enjoying this draft. Every time I log on, there seems to be 3-5 people checking the draft progress, 1 or 2 of whom aren't in the draft. Chances are the end results won't be perfectly balanced, but if we use this format in the future, the results will be more balanced when everyone understands it better. All in all, it seems to be going very well! Your folders are 72% full. Wow...and I've deleted at least 20 messages along the way. I've had more PM's in the past 72 hours then I have in the last 12 months at FBG's.
Saturday March 17th: (mid third round):
11 AM: Nothing since I last looked.
1 AM: Very slow day. WE're still in the third, albeit near the end. OUr #13 drafter was one of those gone for a couple of days. He posted in the draft thread, but didn't pick. It seems I stole his second round pick, and since he's up again, he's apparently not happy about his options. Truth be told, his situation is not ideal, but not a disaster either. From the 14th slot, he secured Steven Jackson in the first, a top 3-4 pick. Now, he can secure an early third and then a late third round value pick with his next two choices. I messaged him pointing those things out.
Sunday March 18th: (end third round):
11:30 AM: A little drama right after I signed off last night. Our #14 drafter (LHUCKS) tried to make up his stolen second round pick with Travis Henry, who was drafted early in the first round. He tried to edit the post (almost immediately) once he realized Henry was gone, but it was basicaly an illegal steal. According to LHUCKS, a control F search failed to show him. Duckboy was on line, and set it straight. IN the end, LHUCKS has S. Jackson from first round, Deuce McCallister from second, and Marquis Colsten from third, with WSL ADP's of 2(RB2), 23(RB18) and 36 (WR10). That equates to an early first, a middle second, and a mid third round pick in a normal draft. Colsten is vulnerable to steal, but most likely LHUCKS will keep him since he's so close to the end, and there are a couple of more attractive receivers available for stealing to most of us needing a replacement pick. LESSON LEARNED: It may be better to freeze the draft instead of simply turning off the clock when somebody will be gone a few days. Had LHUCKS been here and watching the draft, he likely would have had the opportunity to steal a RB more attractive to him. He hasn't been screwed exactly, according to ADP's, but this definately solidifies the drafts nickname "screw your buddy draft".
5PM: We finally passed the turn. There's only one or two players I can safely steal to make up for my stolen 3.01 pick, and neither was high on my list. I was hoping for Wayne, but I would have had to post after LHUCKS and before Rudy...a pretty small window that I missed. Because Duckboy also has a stolen pick to make up, my choices are limited to Anquan Boldin or Randy Moss. No way I take Moss this early. Boldin seems a hair over-rated to me too, as Arizona's offense is weak overall and Fitzgerald is also there. I suspect Duckboy is also waiting on me to make up my pick, or else whoever he steals will be open to AT LEAST me. I may end up making three straight picks if something doesn't open up.
9PM: A few guys have voiced an opinion that they don't think it's necessary to charge a steal on an illegal steal, so I put up a poll to vote on the issue. AS far as the draft goes, no progress since last entry.
1:30AM: A lot of messaging back and forth trying to resolve the steal issue. Just came up with a third solution which I think will be the best one: you must clearly state "steal" for a steal attempt(legal or illegal) to occur. If you don't, and the player has already been drafted, your pick is null, and "player X" will be inserted as your pick, and the draft continues. "Player X" may only be made up from the player pool. uNDER THAT SCENARIO, LHUCKS would get his steal back, Ruffrody would not. I could justify giving Pasquino a steal back as well, since he gained no advantage when he steal a player early in round 3 by accident. As far as the draft goes, Duckboy made an error by stealing Roy Williams when I could steal Williams from him. Not my favorite as a WR1, but certainly no disaster.
Mon 19 Mar:
10:30 AM: A Qb run has started? Pictus cat tok Carson Palmer at 4.06. Rodys immediately stole him with his 4.06 pick. Pictus was still on line, and immediately picked McNabb from the player pool. Why did Ruffrodys steal there? There's a very good chance that Palmer will get stolen from him before he comes up again. I can steal either of those QB's, but I'm not sure I want to pair up a QB/RB from the same team in the first four rounds. Still debating on where to go with my next pick. Thinking about stealing Gonzalez from Rudy (the 4.01 pick). Only two people have yet to exercise a steal (Old Milwaukee and Pictus Cat) Not surprisingly, both are near the middle of the draft order. On another front, the vote to change the rules is surprisingly close. I was hoping for more comments on the third possible option not included in the poll/vote. At least 2 people haven't voted yet. I was pleased to see the Rodys voiced a fairly strong opinion against getting the steals back, since he was one of the guys who messed up.
1 AM: I caught whatever the kids had, and haven't been on line much today. My son had the computer most of the afternoon, and I'd periodicly look over his shoulder at my e-mail just to check for messages (when I went OTC). When I finally logged on 30 min. ago, I found I had been OTC for 5 or 6 hours, and had not been messaged. I didn't see anybody that I wanted badly enough to use a steal, so I took what I thought would be a great, lockable pick...Kellen Winslow, and locked him up with Laveranous Coles. Had I looked in the shark pool, I would have seen the Winslow news...microfracture surgery imminent, season (and maybe career) in jeapordy! Saved a steal, but wasted a pick. Right now, I want to strangle the guy who didn't message me, because I usually peak in the SP, and at "Latest news" before making any pick.
Tues 20 Mar:(mid Fifth round)
5 PM: Very slow day so far. My Coles pick got stolen. I waited a little while to see if anyone took anybody I'd like to steal. But the more I thought about it, and reviewed the players in the pool at this ADP, the more I realized that I'm really not loving anybody in this ADP area....except Reggie Brown. I didn't want to take Brown and double up on Philly players in the first five rounds, but I figured if there was any receiver likely to get stolen, it would be him, so I re-picked an took him. I'm hoping he gets stolen to help burn off some steals. If he doesn't, I could do a lot worse then Brown at WR2. I'll probably continue to use re-picks (instead of steals) until I come up again.
1 AM: Picked up the pace a little in the evening. Radballs stole Todd Heap from Pasquino, but at a vulnerable spot. 3 picks later, LHUCKS stole him from Radballs. Rad only has 1 steal left, and has wasted a couple of his steals. LHUCKS was afraid Rudy would steal him at the 5.14 slot, but I pointed out to him Rudy already had Gonzalez locked, so was highly unlikely to rob him. Since nobody else could steal Heap RIGHT NOW, LHUCKS should hold him. LHUCKS is another guy who seems to be struggling a little bit with this format, but he's been careful enough to keep from getting snake-bit too hard. Also had some good news posted on Winslow. Apparently the news earlier was more rumor then fact. He did have surgery, but updated reports say he should be ready well before camp.
THURS 22 MAR (Early 8th round)
11:45 PM Yesterday was a personal nightmare, so this blog got a little bit behind. My fifth round pick (Lavernous Coles) had gotten stolen, and I never saw anybody in the fifth I could safely steal, AND really wanted. I did make a second fresh selection in the fifth (Reggie Brown), who also got stolen. As a result, I waited until my 6th was due, and actually drafted three straight players! I stole Jon Kitna for the first pick (nice value there), and drafted Jennings, immediately locking them both with my 7.01 pick, Derrick Mason. I actually had planned on Mason getting stolen, but it never happened. The sixth round featured a small TE run and a bunch of wasted steals. Not sure why some guys keep stealing players they can't immediately lock up, especially when it was fairly obvious that a run had started. Even worse, top TE's are NOT a dime a dozen, making it even more likely they'd get stolen! Crumpler was actually stolen THREE times! No big surprises in the overall drafting though.
FRI 23 MAR (Mid 9th round)
11 PM: I locked up a fairly high TE pick to finish the 8th (Desmond Clark). I wouldn't have done that if it weren't for the news on Winslow. BUt at least I have two solid TE's if Winslow is healthy. Probably a silly pick at QB to start the 9th...Alex Smith (QB18). With the steals, I wanted to make sure I wasn't short handed at the position. I was hoping to start another small QB run, and have Smith stolen, while I tried to decide what QB I really wanted. He wasn't stolen, and although several QB's were taken in the round, it wasn't exactly the run I was hoping for. I'm OK with Smith there though. That's right around his WSL ADP, and I think he might be a little under-valued right now. I'm seeing QB18 as his downside.
AS far as the rest of the draft, it's interesting to see that several guys are down to 1 or 2 steals, while two guys have yet to use a steal (Fiddles and Pictus Cat). SSomebody started a seperate thread on the teams, and those two seem a little behnd most of the others in their quality, but not by as much as I expected to see. They may be setting themselves up to short-change stronger teams later in the draft on K's and DEF's. To this point, only 1 or two DST's and no K's have been drafted.
Overall, the steals are slowing down, and the draft pace is picking up.
SAT 24 MAR (Mid 10th)
1 AM: So much for going faster. More wasted steals. Ruds was slow with his pick, and FRO is long into his time limit as well.
SUN 25 MAR (Mid 10th)
11 AM: Looks like Fro is timed out. A little bit of a surprise as he's normally all over these things.
7 PM: Finally got to the turn. I took Morency, and locked him with CUrry. Two high risk, high reward picks. If Green Bay doesn't pick up another RB, Morency could see a lot of time. That doesn't seem too likely though. Curry is behind two troubled WR's in Oakland, and if his Achilles' can hold up, could come up big should Porter or Moss be sent packing. If at least one isn't, Curry might be a wasted pick.
MIDNIGHT: Back to Fro...still hasn't shown up. Really bad news for him too, as his round nine pick had been stolen, "Player X" was used for his round ten, and now his round 11 pick is due. Since he has to pull from the player pool for all three picks, that could really hurt his squad!
MON 26 MAR:(Early 11th)
7:45 AM
Fro picked late last night...sort of. He posted two picks in the wrong thread! He didn't even realize he had to take 3, so he's still on the clock, and in danger of timing out again!
11:45 PM: Fro didn't time out again. Still no K's taken (as there shouldn't be), and only 3 DST's. There's a couple of guys who still haven't taken a TE, which is mildly surprising to me given the format. Steals are getting even slimmer, as most guys are down to only 1 or 2 left...except that Fiddle and Pictus Cat STILL haven't used their first. I might use one on my next pick, but I definately want to save one until later to make sure I have a legit DST2 or K2. Drafting at the end hasn't been a huge advantage to this point, but may be for those K's and DST's late, as I have a natural lock for my even round picks.
This blog only covers the first half of the draft, but I may add more commentary on the second half later (If people are interested and I can find the time).
White Elephant BLOG
Wed March 14 (First round)
1 PM : In the first attempt at the White Elephant draft, I had the second pick. At that time I figured the best strategy for an early first round pick would be to take a player certain not to be wanted/drafted in the first round. The idea was to NOT have to use a steal in the first. No way I was going to take LT. It wasn't until I had the draft set up and was ready to draft that I realized my logic was right, but NOT COMPLETE. I could draft a player rankied in the 4-6 area, and chances were good he'd slide through. The middle guys weren't likely to risk using a steal, and the guys at the end would be eyeing LT, LJ, and Steven Jackson. Westbrook was perfect here. IN PPR, he's easily top five (ranked 4 in WSL ADP), so he's still a solid early-mid first round selection. Hopefully it works out, but if not I can excercise a steal and still be ok. As a Philly Homer, my fingers are crossed anyway.
4 PM: The next three picks were only mild surprises...picks unlikely to be stolen, but barely of first round quality. Leaves me a little more nervous about holding Westbrook. Then Duckboy takes LT at 1.05, declaring that he "has a plan". Bush, Portis and S. Jackson fall in rapid succession.
6 PM: The first steal of the draft! This happened a little earlier then I thought it would. The surprise is the who/where. Rudnicki stole LT with the 1.11 pick. I can see immediately this is a wasted steal. LT is the consensus #1 pick in a normal draft, and is certain to be stolen, and locked, by Rudy at the turn. Ruds has wasted a steal. I've started to get a few PM's clarifying rules. Mostly, it's just guys that are remembering rules from the first White Elephant draft attempt, and are clarifying the clock and when people have to repick after they get robbed. Duckboy and I have started to PM a lot discussing strategy.
8:30 PM: A bit of a discussion about why we re-rolled draft order. After thinking about it, I realized there wasn't an overwhelming need to have done so, but it's too late to change that now. I'm getting overwhelmed with PM's now. FBG's might want to reprogram how you answer them on their system...you get booted from the page you're looking at to answer the PM.
2 AM: I'm going to hate myself in the morning! Lots more PM's to clarify things. A couple more steals have happened, and I've had to figure out how to best keep post #1 (the pick summary) up-to date and legible. A lot more PM-ing with Duckboy. There's a couple guys who seem to be struggling with the complicated strategies this draft presents, but Duckboy has it down. Rudy stole LT at the turn as expected. Duckboy and I realize there are several players taken right after his initial LT pick that NOBODY would be able to steal from him. Duckboy decided to steal Reggie Bush now, leaving open the possibility of excercising another steal when his normal turn comes up. Westbrook made it through the first round, and I can see now that with careful picking and stealing, the #1 draft position is still the best slot to have, even in this format.
THURS March 15th: (early second round)
10 AM: Had to do a little bit more explaining in the draft thread about clock rules. I'm a little surprised that anybody is still confused. I'm realizing that keeping post #1 up to date is a MUCH harder task then in a normal draft. If I don't do a good, accurate job with it, this draft could quickly degenerate into a cluster$@#% almost as quickly as the first Elephant attempt.
1 PM: I made a post reminding people to use the steal test religously. Duckboy beged me to delete the post, but after all the confusion of the last 16 hours or so, I've left it in place. While I agree with Ducky in principle, this is a unique and unusual format. It seems more fair to make sure everyone understands the rules.
4 PM: No big surprises in the picks. The middle guys are mostly picking near ADP and saving their steals. It's becoming obvious who is picking up on the strategy, and who isn't. Reaper made a nice move to steal the 2.01 pick (S. Alexander) and immediately block his pick with his second round pick. This is the first time someone not at the end pulled this manuever. Not great early round value for Reaper, but he's in better shape then a couple of others. I'm a bit worried about a couple of guys and how well they are picking up the strategies to employ.
6 PM: The first real glich in the matrix. Someone has pointed out a potential loophole in the steal test which could allow a person to steal their pick back. Easy fix to simply add another step to the steal test and close the loophole.
9 PM: Steals have been flying off the board! There's at least 4 guys with repicks outstanding. I've been noticing a lot of familiar FBG's poking into the draft thread who aren't part of this draft. Apparently there are plenty of guys interested in whether this thing works or not, but weren't brave enough to actually be a part of it.
1 AM: At least I'm on vacation now! Earlier in the evening I had planned on stealing Chad Johnson for my 2.14 pick, but I realized at the last minute that if I did so, I might be in trouble to secure a solid RB2. I love Westbrook for Rb1, but he's missed significant time to injury before. Instead, I stole Rudi Johnson. Great value here. His WSL ADP was RB11...pick 11! Since I locked him up immediately, I now have a terrific 1-2 combo. I want a WR for my third pick, but the guys I'm eyeing won't survive to the end of the round without getting stolen. I picked Cedric Benson. At least 6 guys are still looking for a RB2, so Benson is sure to be stolen, leaving me a great chance to steal a nice WR1 late in the round. If I can time it right, I might be able to secure an unstealable player using the same strategy Duckboy employed in the first round.
Friday March 16th: (early third round):
12 PM: I'm going on very little sleep as my youngest had me up all night sick. My oldest is also desperately ill, so I can't even get a nap. Nice way to start vacation! At least I could cancel my trip, and stay on top of this draft. Post 1 is getting to be a nigtmare, as steals are still flying around. Several of them seem silly to me. Radballs in particular. He picked Larry Fitzgerald at 3.02. I knew that pick had no chance to survive the round. Fitz was on my short list of steals for late in the round. Jeff made the same type of mistake at 3.04 with Boldin. Reaper obviously has the strategy down as he stole Fitz with a make-up pick, and immediately locked him up with Roy Williams. I'm thinking Williams isn't likely to last either. It seems the guys between the ends and the middle are burning steals up quickly.
3 PM: LOT'S OF DRAMA! Two guys messed up. First, Pasquino picked Roy Williams as a replacement pick for a stolen Boldin. Jeff didn't realize Williams was already drafted, even though post #1 was up to date at the time. Ruffrodys rubbed it in, and Jeff was kicking himself for what might be a wasted steal. Jeff got the last laugh though. Rodys was so busy worrying about what Jeff did, that he posted the drafts first illegal steal! It took only about 3 minutes for someone to point it out, and Rodys owned up to it. Seems to be a lot of silly steals going on at the moment. Meanwhile, Fro stole Benson from me...perfect! Radballs stole Boldin to make up his stolen player. Why now? That's certain to be a wasted steal since he has no way to protect him from being stolen again. Boldin is also on my short list.
2 AM: Pretty slow going today..still in the third round. This was expected though, as a couple of people are out of town for the NCAA tourney. The clock has been turned off until Monday. Looking ahead, I'm in great shape to steal either Boldin, or Reggie Wayne once LHUCKS picks later this round. stealing Wayne would really hurt Rudy, since that's his second round pick, and he took from the player pool while the 1.03 pick was on the clock. At least Rudy has LT. At this point in the draft, it's obvious that those who understand blocking strategy are at a significant advantage. It's also obvious that everyone seems to be greatly enjoying this draft. Every time I log on, there seems to be 3-5 people checking the draft progress, 1 or 2 of whom aren't in the draft. Chances are the end results won't be perfectly balanced, but if we use this format in the future, the results will be more balanced when everyone understands it better. All in all, it seems to be going very well! Your folders are 72% full. Wow...and I've deleted at least 20 messages along the way. I've had more PM's in the past 72 hours then I have in the last 12 months at FBG's.
Saturday March 17th: (mid third round):
11 AM: Nothing since I last looked.
1 AM: Very slow day. WE're still in the third, albeit near the end. OUr #13 drafter was one of those gone for a couple of days. He posted in the draft thread, but didn't pick. It seems I stole his second round pick, and since he's up again, he's apparently not happy about his options. Truth be told, his situation is not ideal, but not a disaster either. From the 14th slot, he secured Steven Jackson in the first, a top 3-4 pick. Now, he can secure an early third and then a late third round value pick with his next two choices. I messaged him pointing those things out.
Sunday March 18th: (end third round):
11:30 AM: A little drama right after I signed off last night. Our #14 drafter (LHUCKS) tried to make up his stolen second round pick with Travis Henry, who was drafted early in the first round. He tried to edit the post (almost immediately) once he realized Henry was gone, but it was basicaly an illegal steal. According to LHUCKS, a control F search failed to show him. Duckboy was on line, and set it straight. IN the end, LHUCKS has S. Jackson from first round, Deuce McCallister from second, and Marquis Colsten from third, with WSL ADP's of 2(RB2), 23(RB18) and 36 (WR10). That equates to an early first, a middle second, and a mid third round pick in a normal draft. Colsten is vulnerable to steal, but most likely LHUCKS will keep him since he's so close to the end, and there are a couple of more attractive receivers available for stealing to most of us needing a replacement pick. LESSON LEARNED: It may be better to freeze the draft instead of simply turning off the clock when somebody will be gone a few days. Had LHUCKS been here and watching the draft, he likely would have had the opportunity to steal a RB more attractive to him. He hasn't been screwed exactly, according to ADP's, but this definately solidifies the drafts nickname "screw your buddy draft".
5PM: We finally passed the turn. There's only one or two players I can safely steal to make up for my stolen 3.01 pick, and neither was high on my list. I was hoping for Wayne, but I would have had to post after LHUCKS and before Rudy...a pretty small window that I missed. Because Duckboy also has a stolen pick to make up, my choices are limited to Anquan Boldin or Randy Moss. No way I take Moss this early. Boldin seems a hair over-rated to me too, as Arizona's offense is weak overall and Fitzgerald is also there. I suspect Duckboy is also waiting on me to make up my pick, or else whoever he steals will be open to AT LEAST me. I may end up making three straight picks if something doesn't open up.
9PM: A few guys have voiced an opinion that they don't think it's necessary to charge a steal on an illegal steal, so I put up a poll to vote on the issue. AS far as the draft goes, no progress since last entry.
1:30AM: A lot of messaging back and forth trying to resolve the steal issue. Just came up with a third solution which I think will be the best one: you must clearly state "steal" for a steal attempt(legal or illegal) to occur. If you don't, and the player has already been drafted, your pick is null, and "player X" will be inserted as your pick, and the draft continues. "Player X" may only be made up from the player pool. uNDER THAT SCENARIO, LHUCKS would get his steal back, Ruffrody would not. I could justify giving Pasquino a steal back as well, since he gained no advantage when he steal a player early in round 3 by accident. As far as the draft goes, Duckboy made an error by stealing Roy Williams when I could steal Williams from him. Not my favorite as a WR1, but certainly no disaster.
Mon 19 Mar:
10:30 AM: A Qb run has started? Pictus cat tok Carson Palmer at 4.06. Rodys immediately stole him with his 4.06 pick. Pictus was still on line, and immediately picked McNabb from the player pool. Why did Ruffrodys steal there? There's a very good chance that Palmer will get stolen from him before he comes up again. I can steal either of those QB's, but I'm not sure I want to pair up a QB/RB from the same team in the first four rounds. Still debating on where to go with my next pick. Thinking about stealing Gonzalez from Rudy (the 4.01 pick). Only two people have yet to exercise a steal (Old Milwaukee and Pictus Cat) Not surprisingly, both are near the middle of the draft order. On another front, the vote to change the rules is surprisingly close. I was hoping for more comments on the third possible option not included in the poll/vote. At least 2 people haven't voted yet. I was pleased to see the Rodys voiced a fairly strong opinion against getting the steals back, since he was one of the guys who messed up.
1 AM: I caught whatever the kids had, and haven't been on line much today. My son had the computer most of the afternoon, and I'd periodicly look over his shoulder at my e-mail just to check for messages (when I went OTC). When I finally logged on 30 min. ago, I found I had been OTC for 5 or 6 hours, and had not been messaged. I didn't see anybody that I wanted badly enough to use a steal, so I took what I thought would be a great, lockable pick...Kellen Winslow, and locked him up with Laveranous Coles. Had I looked in the shark pool, I would have seen the Winslow news...microfracture surgery imminent, season (and maybe career) in jeapordy! Saved a steal, but wasted a pick. Right now, I want to strangle the guy who didn't message me, because I usually peak in the SP, and at "Latest news" before making any pick.
Tues 20 Mar:(mid Fifth round)
5 PM: Very slow day so far. My Coles pick got stolen. I waited a little while to see if anyone took anybody I'd like to steal. But the more I thought about it, and reviewed the players in the pool at this ADP, the more I realized that I'm really not loving anybody in this ADP area....except Reggie Brown. I didn't want to take Brown and double up on Philly players in the first five rounds, but I figured if there was any receiver likely to get stolen, it would be him, so I re-picked an took him. I'm hoping he gets stolen to help burn off some steals. If he doesn't, I could do a lot worse then Brown at WR2. I'll probably continue to use re-picks (instead of steals) until I come up again.
1 AM: Picked up the pace a little in the evening. Radballs stole Todd Heap from Pasquino, but at a vulnerable spot. 3 picks later, LHUCKS stole him from Radballs. Rad only has 1 steal left, and has wasted a couple of his steals. LHUCKS was afraid Rudy would steal him at the 5.14 slot, but I pointed out to him Rudy already had Gonzalez locked, so was highly unlikely to rob him. Since nobody else could steal Heap RIGHT NOW, LHUCKS should hold him. LHUCKS is another guy who seems to be struggling a little bit with this format, but he's been careful enough to keep from getting snake-bit too hard. Also had some good news posted on Winslow. Apparently the news earlier was more rumor then fact. He did have surgery, but updated reports say he should be ready well before camp.
THURS 22 MAR (Early 8th round)
11:45 PM Yesterday was a personal nightmare, so this blog got a little bit behind. My fifth round pick (Lavernous Coles) had gotten stolen, and I never saw anybody in the fifth I could safely steal, AND really wanted. I did make a second fresh selection in the fifth (Reggie Brown), who also got stolen. As a result, I waited until my 6th was due, and actually drafted three straight players! I stole Jon Kitna for the first pick (nice value there), and drafted Jennings, immediately locking them both with my 7.01 pick, Derrick Mason. I actually had planned on Mason getting stolen, but it never happened. The sixth round featured a small TE run and a bunch of wasted steals. Not sure why some guys keep stealing players they can't immediately lock up, especially when it was fairly obvious that a run had started. Even worse, top TE's are NOT a dime a dozen, making it even more likely they'd get stolen! Crumpler was actually stolen THREE times! No big surprises in the overall drafting though.
FRI 23 MAR (Mid 9th round)
11 PM: I locked up a fairly high TE pick to finish the 8th (Desmond Clark). I wouldn't have done that if it weren't for the news on Winslow. BUt at least I have two solid TE's if Winslow is healthy. Probably a silly pick at QB to start the 9th...Alex Smith (QB18). With the steals, I wanted to make sure I wasn't short handed at the position. I was hoping to start another small QB run, and have Smith stolen, while I tried to decide what QB I really wanted. He wasn't stolen, and although several QB's were taken in the round, it wasn't exactly the run I was hoping for. I'm OK with Smith there though. That's right around his WSL ADP, and I think he might be a little under-valued right now. I'm seeing QB18 as his downside.
AS far as the rest of the draft, it's interesting to see that several guys are down to 1 or 2 steals, while two guys have yet to use a steal (Fiddles and Pictus Cat). SSomebody started a seperate thread on the teams, and those two seem a little behnd most of the others in their quality, but not by as much as I expected to see. They may be setting themselves up to short-change stronger teams later in the draft on K's and DEF's. To this point, only 1 or two DST's and no K's have been drafted.
Overall, the steals are slowing down, and the draft pace is picking up.
SAT 24 MAR (Mid 10th)
1 AM: So much for going faster. More wasted steals. Ruds was slow with his pick, and FRO is long into his time limit as well.
SUN 25 MAR (Mid 10th)
11 AM: Looks like Fro is timed out. A little bit of a surprise as he's normally all over these things.
7 PM: Finally got to the turn. I took Morency, and locked him with CUrry. Two high risk, high reward picks. If Green Bay doesn't pick up another RB, Morency could see a lot of time. That doesn't seem too likely though. Curry is behind two troubled WR's in Oakland, and if his Achilles' can hold up, could come up big should Porter or Moss be sent packing. If at least one isn't, Curry might be a wasted pick.
MIDNIGHT: Back to Fro...still hasn't shown up. Really bad news for him too, as his round nine pick had been stolen, "Player X" was used for his round ten, and now his round 11 pick is due. Since he has to pull from the player pool for all three picks, that could really hurt his squad!
MON 26 MAR:(Early 11th)
7:45 AM
Fro picked late last night...sort of. He posted two picks in the wrong thread! He didn't even realize he had to take 3, so he's still on the clock, and in danger of timing out again!
11:45 PM: Fro didn't time out again. Still no K's taken (as there shouldn't be), and only 3 DST's. There's a couple of guys who still haven't taken a TE, which is mildly surprising to me given the format. Steals are getting even slimmer, as most guys are down to only 1 or 2 left...except that Fiddle and Pictus Cat STILL haven't used their first. I might use one on my next pick, but I definately want to save one until later to make sure I have a legit DST2 or K2. Drafting at the end hasn't been a huge advantage to this point, but may be for those K's and DST's late, as I have a natural lock for my even round picks.
steals like Brandon Lloyd and Jeff Reed in the 17th and 18th. 
Just let Fullback know.
