Elite Players missing early time (1 Viewer)

[Unlucky]

So far, we have a short list of top players that are going to or may miss some time:

P. Manning

Steve Smith

B. Marshall

Chad Johnson???

W. McGahee???

I could add Engrem, but he's not that good anyway.

Anyway, here's my question: Would it be wise to load your roster with several of these players. You can get them a round or two later than normal, but will missing them the first couple of weeks.

Upside: No byes until week 4, so the rest of your roster is intact. You will know they are out, so you can start other players. Once these guys come back, your team will be LOADED!

Downside: Making it through the first two or three weeks. It's tough to start 0-3, but you're not guaranteed to lose all of your games.

At least with Smith and Marshall, you can be sure that they'll be good when they return. Chad should be fine as well. Manning and McGahee are more questionable.

I think most people overrate the missing time and thus these players present good value in your draft. I think it's a wise move to get 2 or 3 of these guys because your team will be that much better for most of the season.

Any other players I should add to this list? Rudi or Ronnie Brown?

 

[SteelerMurf]

I just got Marshall at the very end of round 3 in a PPR which I think is a steal.

To give you an indication (in this same slow draft), Chad Johnson is still on the board for me to pick on my next selection. I just don't know how healthy he is. Heck I don't know what his original injury even is.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

So far, we have a short list of top players that are going to or may miss some time. ManningSteve SmithB. MarshallChad Johnson???W. McGahee???I could add Engrem, but he's not that good anyway.Anyway, here's my question: Would it be wise to load your roster with several of these players. You can get them a round or two later than normal, but will missing them the first couple of weeks. Upside: No byes until week 4, so the rest of your roster is intact. You will know they are out, so you can start other players. Once these guys come back, your team will be LOADED!Downside: Making it through the first two or three weeks. It's tough to start 0-3, but you're not guaranteed to lose all of your games. At least with Smith and Marshall, you can be sure that they'll be good when they return. Chad should be fine as well. Manning and McGahee are more questionable. I think most people overrate the missing time and thus these players present good value in your draft. I think it's a wise move to get 2 or 3 of these guys because your team will be that much better for most of the season. Any other players I should add to this list? Rudi or Ronnie Brown?

I would add Rudi to the just not that good anyway category.

 

[Jayrod]

I just got Marshall at the very end of round 3 in a PPR which I think is a steal.To give you an indication (in this same slow draft), Chad Johnson is still on the board for me to pick on my next selection. I just don't know how healthy he is. Heck I don't know what his original injury even is.

Do not dream of passing on CJ at that pick. That's ridiculous value. He'll be fine, he sprained his shoulder (it actually popped in and out of place), but he should be ready to go week 1.

 

[smcindoe]

Suspensions and injuries are very different.

Chad Johnson is a question mark. Steve Smith isn't -- you know he's going to miss two games, and then he's back. No risk of a game-time decision, no risk of "he'll play, but how much?". Just two games that you need a replacement, then he's back.

 

[NHT-SPOILER]

How about adding Braylon Edwards and Ryan Grant?

Ryan Grant - will the hamstring linger and has Brandon Jackson impressed enough to steal enough carries.

B.Edwards - How much time is he going to miss, I'm hearing possibly the first two weeks.

 

[I Am Rick James]

So far, we have a short list of top players that are going to or may miss some time:

P. Manning

Steve Smith

B. Marshall

Chad Johnson???

W. McGahee???

I could add Engrem, but he's not that good anyway.

Anyway, here's my question: Would it be wise to load your roster with several of these players. You can get them a round or two later than normal, but will missing them the first couple of weeks.

Upside: No byes until week 4, so the rest of your roster is intact. You will know they are out, so you can start other players. Once these guys come back, your team will be LOADED!

Downside: Making it through the first two or three weeks. It's tough to start 0-3, but you're not guaranteed to lose all of your games.

At least with Smith and Marshall, you can be sure that they'll be good when they return. Chad should be fine as well. Manning and McGahee are more questionable.

I think most people overrate the missing time and thus these players present good value in your draft. I think it's a wise move to get 2 or 3 of these guys because your team will be that much better for most of the season.

Any other players I should add to this list? Rudi or Ronnie Brown?

Well that's the entire question, isn't it. How far does each one need to fall before they become a good value. Sure it's different for each player, but it's also different for each position. High end players like Manning and Gates normally don't need a backup

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Suspensions and injuries are very different.

The answer is whether you can "weather the storm" with the rest of your roster.Do you have enough room on your team to carry 1-2? 3-4? The more value you can grab, the better you'll be in the postseason.Engram is worth a gamble as he's out 3 wks likely (bye wk 4).

 

[Jayrod]

B.Edwards - How much time is he going to miss, I'm hearing possibly the first two weeks.

Que? Everything I've heard is that he'll be ready week 1.Its a cut, not an injury. Once his skin closes, he's ready to go.

 

[faux_bear]

B.Edwards - How much time is he going to miss, I'm hearing possibly the first two weeks.

Que? Everything I've heard is that he'll be ready week 1.Its a cut, not an injury. Once his skin closes, he's ready to go.

McGahee seems to be really sliding in drafts...tonight the following RB's were taken ahead of him...McFadden, Thomas Jones, Jamal Lewis, Laurence Maroney, Michael Turner, Willie Parker, and of course Ryan Grant and Reggie Bush. It's clear a lot of people are worried about him.I should also add that Ray Rice was taken in the 7th round, immediately after Jonathan Stewart.

 

[gbill2004]

What about Boldin? Has he played in a pre-season game yet??

 

[Unlucky]

Good point about how deep your roster is. Deeper rosters = more likely to grab Smith/Marshall.

I think the best thing to do is project the suspended guys like they are playing a full season so that their PPG is accurate.

For the injured guys, it's tougher. Will Manning be Manning?

I think McGahee is starting to look like some really good value. He's battled injuries before and he's better than Ray Rice. Rice isn't going to take his job. It would be nice to get McGahee vs. CIN, HOU, and CLE the first 3 weeks, however.

The weird thing about how far guys fall is that in leagues with worse owners, they probably won't fall as far because the people won't even be aware that they are hurt. It's the Shark infested leagues where you can really steal the value.

 

[Iron_Far]

How about adding Braylon Edwards and Ryan Grant?Ryan Grant - will the hamstring linger and has Brandon Jackson impressed enough to steal enough carries.B.Edwards - How much time is he going to miss, I'm hearing possibly the first two weeks.

EAGERLY awaiting to see how your teams turn out post-draft.

 

[GregR_2]

I wouldn't go overboard in taking them. Don't take more than your roster can handle the space for.

But as far as when the player is worth taking vs other receivers, I think you need to work off of what you can expect to score from his slot with him or without him. To do that you have to account for the backup who will sub in for him on those three games.

Using some real numbers from a .5 PPR, start 5 WR league, let's say I have Marshall as WR21 and projected at 170 points in his 13 games. Assuming I'll start him every week, I'll get his 170 points. But I'll start a backup 3 weeks there and so my starting lineup spot if I get Marshall is equal to his 170 plus 3 games of my backup.

My best backup in that league is Reggie Williams (WR46) at 120 points in 16 games, or 7.5 points a game. So if I own Marshall with Reggie as my best backup, that slot is worth 170 + (3*7.5) = 170 + 22.5 = 192.5. That is right in the ballpark of my projection for owning WR13 Anquan Boldin and starting him all 16 games. So even though Brandon Marshall's projection of 170 points makes him my leauge's WR21, with the backup I have I'm going to get WR13 production out of that starting lineup spot. We do lose a little bit of value in that our backup is no longer available those games to fill in for someone else, but I'd basically just slide him into the next slot, so call him WR14.

Now of course in a draft you have to guess at how good your backup is going to be since you have to take the player missing time before your backup. But you should still be able to get a good approximate number. And let's say you are considering owning both Marshall and Steve Smith... then I would need to plug in the numbers for my best 2 backups and not just my best one since I have to use them both for a few games.

Anyway, that is a walk through of how I would figure out what the player is worth. And of course, just because he's almost worth as much as Boldin doesn't mean you have to take him right after Boldin. You still wait to take him until the point you figure you must take him now or someone else will. In my case I got him as the 18th WR even though I believe his value is that of WR14 or so. I'd have liked to wait longer but I doubted he would have lasted until my next pick. But I still got, by my projections, better value than the 4 teams who picked WRs ahead of me.

 

[bucsbaby]

Maroney before McGahee Man, the community is REALLY down on McGahee this year. He could be SoD...

 

[SteelerMurf]

I just got Marshall at the very end of round 3 in a PPR which I think is a steal.To give you an indication (in this same slow draft), Chad Johnson is still on the board for me to pick on my next selection. I just don't know how healthy he is. Heck I don't know what his original injury even is.

Do not dream of passing on CJ at that pick. That's ridiculous value. He'll be fine, he sprained his shoulder (it actually popped in and out of place), but he should be ready to go week 1.

I have never been high on CJ, let alone after ankle surgery and a popped out shoulder. When you look at his overall stats they always look good, but look at week to week and you will see he does it with 3 or 4 great games and the others are so mediocre you wish you didn't start him. I passed on him again. And so did others. There have been 12 WRs taken and Chad is not one of them.

 

[David Dodds]

I think the best thing to do is project the suspended guys like they are playing a full season so that their PPG is accurate.

I actually think the best way to project the suspended players is to project for the games they will play plus add in replacement starter stats (approximately the PPG of the 36th WR for example) for the games they will miss.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

My thoughts are I'm more inclined to look at the suspended players. It's a little more black and white, we know they'll be out X amount of games and then they'll return as good as new.

With Peyton or McGahee etc....we don't know how much time they'll miss and when they do come back, we don't know exactly at what level.

I know some are super high on Steve Smith, but even with him, I'm not totally sold as last year he was so inconsistent. I'm well aware of who the QB was last year, but after going through that with him last year and now this 2 game suspension, he's really going to have to offer me some value before I draft him.

The one guy I'm targeting is Marshall. I'm a little disappointed he's doing so well in preseason, because he really could have slipped some with the suspension and no hype of preseason games.

 

[Sabertooth]

Suspensions and injuries are very different.

The answer is whether you can "weather the storm" with the rest of your roster.Do you have enough room on your team to carry 1-2? 3-4? The more value you can grab, the better you'll be in the postseason.Engram is worth a gamble as he's out 3 wks likely (bye wk 4).

I have got two keepers - Westbrook and ADP for relatively cheap in a keep 2 auction format. I am thinking of trying to roster both Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall. I figure in this type of situation, I should be good to go. I play two new owners in week 1 so that may help. But I lick my chops at having ADP, Westbrook, and two out of Chad, Smith, and Marshall for the remainder. I'd be pretty tough to beat. Of course, being an auction, it only takes one other team to value these players and their value is shot.

 

[omally]

I know some are super high on Steve Smith, but even with him, I'm not totally sold as last year he was so inconsistent. I'm well aware of who the QB was last year, but after going through that with him last year and now this 2 game suspension, he's really going to have to offer me some value before I draft him.

If you aware of the QB situation last year with Smith, I don't understand how you don't realize why he was inconsistent.

 

[SteelerMurf]

I think the best thing to do is project the suspended guys like they are playing a full season so that their PPG is accurate.

I actually think the best way to project the suspended players is to project for the games they will play plus add in replacement starter stats (approximately the PPG of the 36th WR for example) for the games they will miss.

I agree, everyone is acting like being those 2 weeks without Marshall or Smith gets you zeroes. In reality the first WR off your bench should be more than adequate to cover 2 games. If not, you did a crappy job of drafting and your team is one injury away from 0-16.