Eric Decker, WR, Denver Broncos (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Eric Decker, WR, Denver Broncos

Player Page Link: Eric Decker Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[TheWick]

Good player meets perfect situation. If he remains healthy it sure seems like Decker will be Peyton's Mr.Reliable.

85 rec

1104 yds

6 TDs

 

[orangecrush15]

Decker is a QB's best friend, especially one as cerebral as Manning. Averaged 5 catches/game when Orton started last year, and that number will only go up with a QB like Peyton Manning. Decker is a great route-runner, has some of the best hands in the league, understands defenses ans knows how to get open. He's a big target that can line up outside and in the slot, and the Broncos plan to use him in whatever way possible to create mismatches. He and Manning have been throwing and hanging out together a lot this offseason and if Decker stays healthy I think he and Manning will have quite the rapport. I don't think a stat line like the one below is out of the question for Decker.

104 receptions, 1270 yards, 7 TD

Decker should lead the Broncos in receptions, with Demaryius Thomas providing the big plays and leading in YPC. Demaryius will assume the Pierre Garcon role, while Decker will be sort of a hybrid between Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie. Demayius is a much more talented version of Garcon, while Decker is somewhere in between Wayne and Collie. Both guys could easily have 1,000 yard seasons, but I prefer Decker, because of the consistency week to week and because he's a better option in PPR formats.

 

[fightingillini]

I like Decker's prospects this year with Manning. Kind of resembles Austin Collie's situation in IND a couple of years ago. Let someone else take Demariyus Thomas too high and grab Decker a couple of rounds later, especially in PPR leagues. WRs like Decker allow you to take your stud RBs, QBs and even Gronkowski/Graham in the early rounds. I don't see Decker's stats much different than say Marques Colston who will be drafted a least 2 rounds earlier. I will be looking to draft Decker a lot this year.

90 rec, 1150 yds, 8 TD

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I think the expectations on Eric Decker from previous posts are out of hand. They have him pegged as a solid WR1, which is ridiculous. He caught 44 of his 94 targets last year and his floor so far in projections is 85/1100/6. Wow! I know everyone is assuming that Peyton is going to make Decker an all-pro caliber receiver. But Manning himself is a risk to get through the season and perform well within a new weather environment, new coaches, & new receivers. There are just too many variables to take any of this for granted or project that kind of instant success for any Broncos receiver. If people continue to overhype Denver’s offensive players because of Manning (and I can’t wait to see the D. Thomas spotlight), they are going to be the most overdrafted lot in fantasy. Expectations are just a bit rich.

I like Eric Decker a lot. He’s got great potential to have a better year than last year with Tim Tebow. But unless he’s projected to slip out of the draft status that he’s being hyped with, I’ll be passing on him in all drafts this year.

Projection: 60/825/8

 

[LordofTheBling]

He is a strong WR2, with a slight chance of breaking into WR1 territory. I could see him getting 10-12 TD's if Manning comes out strong.

85/1100/8

 

[solorca]

I bought Decker in a few dynasty leagues prior to the hype building up, and grabbed him around the 7th round. Now, he's going in the 4th or 5th in many leagues. In a redraft, I'd prefer to grab him as a WR3 in the 7th or 8th rather than a 4th or 5th round pick.

I'm thinking he'll have a good season, but I think he'll under perform the expectations he currently has around him.

70/900/7

 

[meyerj31]

These posts with Decker at 1100+ are more than a little ludicrous. Is it possible? Yea. Is it also possible for the Packers to go 16-0 and beat the Browns in the super bowl? Yea, that's possible too.

This Manning situation has some similarities to the Montana move in 1993.

1) Montana was 37 his first year with the Chiefs

2) Montana did not play the previous season due to an injury (elbow)

3) The chiefs had a strong running game prior to Montana taking over, just as the Broncos do now, and a decent defense.

Results?

Montana threw for around 200 yards per game that year, and the next year. We're talking about one of the best passing QBs ever, here. Montana could thread the needle in his prime with intense velocity, super accurate, and one of the most mentally tough players to ever play the game.

Now, the game has changed, for sure. Inflate his stats a little bit for that and let's say Manning comes back stronger from his injury than Montana did. Even if both of those happen we're talking around 250 yards per game. Manning has never been a 5,000 yard QB - in fact, his career yards per game is 263! And that's without injury, and in a very familiar situation, and half of his career with two dominate WRs. So 250 at this point would be a ceiling for him, and even that is generous.

With a 250 ypg ceiling, we're talking, at best, a 4,000 yard season. This is if everything lines up.

Also, at best, if Manning falls head over heels in love with Decker, he's going to get 25% of the targets.

So we're talking, at best, if the stars align, Manning is healthy, Decker doesn't get injured, Manning gives 25% of his targets to Decker ... then Decker will approach 1,000 yards. Not go over, mind you, but approach it.

Realistically? It's not likely Manning will throw for 4,000 yards, and it's not likely Decker will get 25% of his targets either. For Decker to have 1100+ Manning would have to throw for 4500 and that's just not going to happen for a 36-year old coming off multiple neck surgeries that hasn't played in a real NFL game for that extended of a period. Only six QBs last year threw for 4500+. Come back to earth people!

70 / 850 / 9 TDs

 

[Heep]

After this year, Decker will jump Welker, Roddy, and Vincent Jackson in PPR dynasty startups. I see him as a late 2nd (reaching) to 3rd round pick NEXT YEAR. He will be a 26 year old WR coming off a 80+ catch, 1100 yards, 8-12 td season. That would have been good enough for WR10 #s this year. Bank it!

 

[Clutchfanatic]

After this year, Decker will jump Welker, Roddy, and Vincent Jackson in PPR dynasty startups. I see him as a late 2nd (reaching) to 3rd round pick NEXT YEAR. He will be a 26 year old WR coming off a 80+ catch, 1100 yards, 8-12 td season. That would have been good enough for WR10 #s this year. Bank it!

I'm in a 5 player keeper and keeping Decker would cost me a 15th round pick.

Gotta keep'em.

 

[JPeso]

After this year, Decker will jump Welker, Roddy, and Vincent Jackson in PPR dynasty startups. I see him as a late 2nd (reaching) to 3rd round pick NEXT YEAR. He will be a 26 year old WR coming off a 80+ catch, 1100 yards, 8-12 td season. That would have been good enough for WR10 #s this year. Bank it!

Those stats I'd say are likely. Decker has a really high chance to pass the three you mention, but I think we already knew that. What do you think with Decker vs. Maclin or DT? Scoring and value next off-season? Those are more "bank it" calls. In regards to his draft position next offseason, Cruz scored 295 and this off-season he is only a half a year older difference, thus Decker's "break out" year is 6 months later. Decker won't ever get to the point where Cruz' value is right now (right or wrong). And Cruz slips out of the third some now before the huge emergences of some other pimps who will be just 22-23 next off-season.

To end the somewhat derail:

Decker: 85, 1150, 8 = 250 PPR, 15.6 per game

Thomas: 75, 1250, 12 = 272 PPR, 17.0 per game

 

[lbouchard]

No way Decker is a WR1. Maybe a solid WR2, but the hype is getting out of hand.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Decker probably gets between 850-950 yards on 60-70 catches and maybe scores 6 TDs(though I could see less). I'm wagering Dreessen/Tamme are going to get more RZ love than a lot of people think. Could really truncate a lot of Decker's looks inside the 20 if it works out that way.

 

[Sabertooth]

I am hoping he stays healthy and gets through the preseason with Manning healthy as well. Then I am going to try and sell him right then. His value is going to skyrocket in August.

 

[Sabertooth]

These posts with Decker at 1100+ are more than a little ludicrous. Is it possible? Yea. Is it also possible for the Packers to go 16-0 and beat the Browns in the super bowl? Yea, that's possible too.This Manning situation has some similarities to the Montana move in 1993.1) Montana was 37 his first year with the Chiefs2) Montana did not play the previous season due to an injury (elbow)3) The chiefs had a strong running game prior to Montana taking over, just as the Broncos do now, and a decent defense.Results?Montana threw for around 200 yards per game that year, and the next year. We're talking about one of the best passing QBs ever, here. Montana could thread the needle in his prime with intense velocity, super accurate, and one of the most mentally tough players to ever play the game.Now, the game has changed, for sure. Inflate his stats a little bit for that and let's say Manning comes back stronger from his injury than Montana did. Even if both of those happen we're talking around 250 yards per game. Manning has never been a 5,000 yard QB - in fact, his career yards per game is 263! And that's without injury, and in a very familiar situation, and half of his career with two dominate WRs. So 250 at this point would be a ceiling for him, and even that is generous.With a 250 ypg ceiling, we're talking, at best, a 4,000 yard season. This is if everything lines up. Also, at best, if Manning falls head over heels in love with Decker, he's going to get 25% of the targets. So we're talking, at best, if the stars align, Manning is healthy, Decker doesn't get injured, Manning gives 25% of his targets to Decker ... then Decker will approach 1,000 yards. Not go over, mind you, but approach it.Realistically? It's not likely Manning will throw for 4,000 yards, and it's not likely Decker will get 25% of his targets either. For Decker to have 1100+ Manning would have to throw for 4500 and that's just not going to happen for a 36-year old coming off multiple neck surgeries that hasn't played in a real NFL game for that extended of a period. Only six QBs last year threw for 4500+. Come back to earth people!70 / 850 / 9 TDs

This is an excellent post.

 

[Heep]

Realistically? It's not likely Manning will throw for 4,000 yards, and it's not likely Decker will get 25% of his targets either. For Decker to have 1100+ Manning would have to throw for 4500 and that's just not going to happen for a 36-year old coming off multiple neck surgeries that hasn't played in a real NFL game for that extended of a period. Only six QBs last year threw for 4500+. Come back to earth people!70 / 850 / 9 TDs

This is an excellent post.

Hmmm....You might wanna go back and look at Mannings stats. Usually his top two targets have over 1000 yards receiving no matter what the the number of passing yards he has. And the couple years he didn't have his #2 guy over 1,000 yards, he had a 3rd AND 4th option catching 60 balls. Heck, even last year with Painter/Orlovsky/Collins throwing horrible passes and putting up 3100 yards combined, Garcon and Wayne both caught at least 70 passes for over 940 yards, which is what you are projecting Decker.

 

[Heep]

Those stats I'd say are likely. Decker has a really high chance to pass the three you mention, but I think we already knew that. What do you think with Decker vs. Maclin or DT? Scoring and value next off-season? Those are more "bank it" calls. In regards to his draft position next offseason, Cruz scored 295 and this off-season he is only a half a year older difference, thus Decker's "break out" year is 6 months later. Decker won't ever get to the point where Cruz' value is right now (right or wrong). And Cruz slips out of the third some now before the huge emergences of some other pimps who will be just 22-23 next off-season.

I wouldn't say we already knew that or they wouldn't be going 2-3 rounds before Decker in every single dynasty start-up draft this year. Maybe you and I do? I disagree with your reasoning on why Decker will never reach where Cruz's value is at right now. Look at Welker. Welker's value is higher than Cruz's is right now at 31 (I dont think it should be but start-ups suggest it), and he didn't have his breakout year until he was 26. Factor in Randle being drafted, and some may be worried Cruz falls off. I don't think anyone thinks Cruz will reach 1500+ again this year.

 

[cstu]

People seem to be assuming a Wayne/Harrison situation for Decker/Thomas but it wasn't the norm during Peyton's Colts years for two WR's to put up stud numbers. 2004-2006 were the only years the two of them put up over 1000 yards. Manning loves throwing to TE's so I expect him to spread the ball around a lot.

 

[PhantomJB]

75 / 1050 / 7

1) Any projection for the Denver WR's obviously needs to start with Peyton Manning. Over 13 years, Peyton has thrown for 54,828 yds for an annual average of about 4,200 yards / season, with a range of about 3,700 to 4,700. Although he certainly has the potential to be in the Brees/Brady/Stafford stratosphere, I'm going to use his career avg of 4,200 given the strong Denver ground game and John Fox offense.

2) Most would agree that E. Decker and D. Thomas are shaping up to be a 1A / 1B type WR combo. Here are the 2011 yardage stats for the leading 1A / 1B combos for QB's in 2011 that threw for over 4,000 yds.

Nicks / Cruz = 2,728 yds (or 55% of Eli's 4,933)

Nelson / Jennings = 2,218 (or 47.8% of Rodger's 4,643)

Roddy / Julio = 2,255 (or 54.0% of Ryan's 4,177)

Wallace / A. Brown = 2,301 (or 56.4% of Ben's 4,077)

On average, the leading 1A / 1B combos accounted for 53.3% of their 4K+ QB's yardage.

3) It is well-known that Peyton works well with 1A/1B combos (Harrison/Wayne, Wayne/Garcon, etc.)

4) Last year, Decker was 44/612 (13.9 ypc) and DT was 32/551 (17.2 ypc). Their total yardage of 1,163 comprised 47.8% of Denver's total passing yards of 2,434.

5) Since Denver's passing attack will likely migrate more toward the league's average, I'm going to average 47.8% and 53.3% and round up to assume that DT and Decker combine for 51% (or about 2,150) of Manning's assumed 2012 4,200 yards.

6) Number of catches is difficult, but the below splits and ypc seem to match the more "possession" like game of Decker and more "deep-ball" threat of D. Thomas.

7) TD's are difficult and the split is arbitrary but if you look at those four 1A/1B combos above they all remarkably comprise between 50-55% of their QB's total TD's from last year (avg 53%). Assuming Manning gets 28 TD's, that leaves 15 TDs 53%) to split between Decker and DT.

8) Final projections:

P. Manning 4,200 yds / 28 TDs

E. Decker 75 / 1050 yds / 7 TDs (13.9 ypc)

D. Thomas 70 / 1100 yds / 8 TDs (15.7 ypc)

Adjust according to your own view of Manning's season.

 

[moderated]

I've seen some insane projections, but the decker ones top them all.

 

[cstu]

I love how two guys who have never caught 700 yards are suddenly both on par with the best WR pairs in the league. Reggie Wayne in his 3rd year in the league with Manning in his prime had 68/838/7, but go ahead and keep drinking the juice.

 

[Jercules]

I've seen some insane projections, but the decker ones top them all.

I was in full agreement with the spirit of this post until I got a look at Decker's 4 games with Orton last year: 20 rec, 270 yards, 5 TDs.Now even a hampered Manning ought to be an improvement over Orton, and Decker himself should be better... along with the fact that Matt Waldman swears by him, I see every reason to be bullish on this guy.80/1200/10

 

[Vector]

I agree the hype is getting a little out of hand. The real question here is how well the Bronco OL can protect Manning.

I see Decker getting around 70/900/7

 

[Sabertooth]

He's definitely talented. He's a big target. Truth is, we just don't know Manning is going to distribute the ball. I think the high projections are kind of under the assumption that Decker benefits from teams concentrating coverage on Thomas and Manning taking what the defense gives him (he's been doing that for years). I think Decker is a better football player than Pierre Garcon or Austin Collie. I think he's better than Brandon Stokely as well.

Now this offense won't be as mature, and Manning won't be as good as he was in 2004. But this is perhaps the best QB to ever play the game. I'd say he's easily one of the smartest, probably THE smartest QB ever to play. He's going to move this offense. If Jake Delhomme (Fox's longest tenured QB to date) could throw up 3800+ and 29 touchdowns in Fox's offense with Muhsin Muhammed and Keary Colbert, I think that is Manning's floor.

Decker's floor is this: Colbert went 47, 754, 5 touchdowns in Fox's offense in 2004 with Delhomme.

Decker's ceiling is closer to 77, 1200, 12 season a 26 year old Reggie Wayne put up or the 68,1077, 10 season Stokely put up in 04.

Now this is all assuming that Decker isn't the the #1 option or 1a and 1b with Thomas. If that situation arises, you are going to see numbers north of 77 catches most likely. I'd give that about a 30% likelihood.

Quite a range and I think this thread illustrates that.

 

[dickey moe]

You guys are nuts with some of your projections for this guy.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

These posts with Decker at 1100+ are more than a little ludicrous. Is it possible? Yea. Is it also possible for the Packers to go 16-0 and beat the Browns in the super bowl? Yea, that's possible too.This Manning situation has some similarities to the Montana move in 1993.1) Montana was 37 his first year with the Chiefs2) Montana did not play the previous season due to an injury (elbow)3) The chiefs had a strong running game prior to Montana taking over, just as the Broncos do now, and a decent defense.Results?Montana threw for around 200 yards per game that year, and the next year. We're talking about one of the best passing QBs ever, here. Montana could thread the needle in his prime with intense velocity, super accurate, and one of the most mentally tough players to ever play the game.Now, the game has changed, for sure. Inflate his stats a little bit for that and let's say Manning comes back stronger from his injury than Montana did. Even if both of those happen we're talking around 250 yards per game. Manning has never been a 5,000 yard QB - in fact, his career yards per game is 263! And that's without injury, and in a very familiar situation, and half of his career with two dominate WRs. So 250 at this point would be a ceiling for him, and even that is generous.With a 250 ypg ceiling, we're talking, at best, a 4,000 yard season. This is if everything lines up. Also, at best, if Manning falls head over heels in love with Decker, he's going to get 25% of the targets. So we're talking, at best, if the stars align, Manning is healthy, Decker doesn't get injured, Manning gives 25% of his targets to Decker ... then Decker will approach 1,000 yards. Not go over, mind you, but approach it.Realistically? It's not likely Manning will throw for 4,000 yards, and it's not likely Decker will get 25% of his targets either. For Decker to have 1100+ Manning would have to throw for 4500 and that's just not going to happen for a 36-year old coming off multiple neck surgeries that hasn't played in a real NFL game for that extended of a period. Only six QBs last year threw for 4500+. Come back to earth people!70 / 850 / 9 TDs

it's a fair point about a guy coming back off injury in a new situation -- I don't think manning did particularly well early in the year coming back off whatever surgery he had a few years ago, but the montana comparison is pretty useless.what you choose not to mention is that montana was a 210 ypg career passer in sfo, while manning stands at 263 ypg in indy.out of his 13 years, manning has failed to throw for 4k yards only twice -- one of those years being his 3-13 rookie season, meanwhile, montana never threw for 4k yards once in 15 yrs.they are also 2 different injuries to 2 different players in 2 different medical eras.what would happen if manning falls head over heels in love with a receiver?well, I don't want to follow one pointless comparison up with another, but if you want a ceiling, marvin harrison averaged 100/1400/12.6 over an 8 yr period.ps"Results?Montana threw for around 200 yards per game that year, and the next year."btw, one of us is looking at bad info because I have him at 234 ypg in his 2nd year at kc at age 38, which would be around 10% better than his career sfo average, and right around the median.

 

[MDSkinner]

75 / 1050 / 7

3) It is well-known that Peyton works well with 1A/1B combos (Harrison/Wayne, Wayne/Garcon, etc.)

8) Final projections:

P. Manning 4,200 yds / 28 TDs

E. Decker 75 / 1050 yds / 7 TDs (13.9 ypc)

D. Thomas 70 / 1100 yds / 8 TDs (15.7 ypc)

Adjust according to your own view of Manning's season.

I posted this back right after Manning signed with teh Colts in one of the other threads talking about Decker/Thomas just looking at # of receptions

Top two receiving WR's for Colts since 2000

Harrison - 102/Pathon - 50

Harrison - 109/Wilkins - 34

Harison - 143/Wayne - 49

Harrison - 94/Wayne - 68

Harrison - 86/Wayne - 77 (Stokely - 68)

Wayne - 83/Harrison - 82 (Stokely - 41)

Harrison - 95/Wayne - 86

Wayne - 104/Gonzalez - 37 (Clark 58)

Wayne - 82/Harrison - 60 (Clark 77)

Wayne - 100/Collie - 60 (Clark 100)

Wayne - 111/Garcon - 67 (Tamme 67)

The only years where Manning did not lock in to one guy far more than another were the years 2004-2006 right after Wayne came into his own (note that Harrison had slightly more in two of those years and Wayne did the other).

The number of receptions that you are predicting for each of them is lower than the top receiver has caught for Manning in any of his years since 2000. That is certainly possible, but it seems unlikely. It also seems unlikely to me that Decker is the #1 with Thomas the #2 and I really do not see the two of them being 1A/1B the way that Harrison and Wayne were in only those three years (Garcon does not look like 1B to with 37 fewer receptions that year and the same receptions as Jacob Tamme, but I suppose that is subjective).

I expect Manning to not throw as much this year as in pas years so I expect numbers to be down, but based on what he has done, I would guess maybe something like

Decker - 60/780/6

Thomas - 85/1200/10

and then I am guessing Tamme if he ends up being the lead TE will also have around that 55-60 catches, since the last time Manning was healthy Tamme was arguably his #2.

But Decker could certainly end up being that number 1 guy. It just seems less likely to me than it does with Thomas. This will be one of the more fun teams to watch this year in either case.

 

[mjr]

While I can see why there would be some skepticism for Decker putting up WR1/Mike Wallace numbers, what I don't understand is why, with a vast improvement at the QB position, so many are projecting him for the same or even less TDs than he had last year. He put up 8 TDs with TEBOW under center for the most part. He's now going to put up 8 or even only 7 or 6 with Manning? I have a hard time buying into that. If anyone, I think with Thomas being the better deep threat that he will be the one with the max of 7 or 8 TDs that are being projected for Decker in most of this thread.

I understand Manning most likely wont be the QB he used to be and projections for Decker to put up 1200 yards is a little optimistic, but I also think projections of 700 - 850 yards is just as head-scratching as the TD projections. Again, with a go-to-the-run QB like Tebow throwing the ball, Decker put up over 600 yards. How often does Manning abandon his reads as quickly and starts to run like Tebow? Not nearly as much, I would say. I think 800-900 yards would be the floor for Decker with Manning there. As for people projecting less than 1000 for Decker because Denver is a run-oriented team...um...If Decker can't break 1000 because they like to run in Denver, then someone better call Brandon Lloyd. 1400 yards and 11 TDs... on a run-oriented team without Peyton Manning. Just saying...there have been recent exceptions to that idea.

I can see about 1000 and 10/11 TDs for Decker if both he and Manning stay healthy. Anything more would be a pleasant surprise. Anything less will be because of setbacks.

 

[cstu]

While I can see why there would be some skepticism for Decker putting up WR1/Mike Wallace numbers, what I don't understand is why, with a vast improvement at the QB position, so many are projecting him for the same or even less TDs than he had last year. He put up 8 TDs with TEBOW under center for the most part. He's now going to put up 8 or even only 7 or 6 with Manning? I have a hard time buying into that. If anyone, I think with Thomas being the better deep threat that he will be the one with the max of 7 or 8 TDs that are being projected for Decker in most of this thread. I understand Manning most likely wont be the QB he used to be and projections for Decker to put up 1200 yards is a little optimistic, but I also think projections of 700 - 850 yards is just as head-scratching as the TD projections. Again, with a go-to-the-run QB like Tebow throwing the ball, Decker put up over 600 yards. How often does Manning abandon his reads as quickly and starts to run like Tebow? Not nearly as much, I would say. I think 800-900 yards would be the floor for Decker with Manning there. As for people projecting less than 1000 for Decker because Denver is a run-oriented team...um...If Decker can't break 1000 because they like to run in Denver, then someone better call Brandon Lloyd. 1400 yards and 11 TDs... on a run-oriented team without Peyton Manning. Just saying...there have been recent exceptions to that idea. I can see about 1000 and 10/11 TDs for Decker if both he and Manning stay healthy. Anything more would be a pleasant surprise. Anything less will be because of setbacks.

During his prime, Reggie Wayne averaged 8 TD's a season from 2003-2010. Harrison averaged about 12 TD's a season.That was also when Manning was in his prime, and during his career he threw between 26 and 33 TD's (excluding his 49 TD season). I think he'll throw right 30 TD's but since he spreads the ball around so much I doubt more than 20 of those will go to Thomas and Decker.

 

[PhantomJB]

The only years where Manning did not lock in to one guy far more than another were the years 2004-2006 right after Wayne came into his own (note that Harrison had slightly more in two of those years and Wayne did the other). The number of receptions that you are predicting for each of them is lower than the top receiver has caught for Manning in any of his years since 2000. That is certainly possible, but it seems unlikely. It also seems unlikely to me that Decker is the #1 with Thomas the #2 and I really do not see the two of them being 1A/1B the way that Harrison and Wayne were in only those three years (Garcon does not look like 1B to with 37 fewer receptions that year and the same receptions as Jacob Tamme, but I suppose that is subjective).I expect Manning to not throw as much this year as in pas years so I expect numbers to be down, but based on what he has done, I would guess maybe something like Decker - 60/780/6Thomas - 85/1200/10and then I am guessing Tamme if he ends up being the lead TE will also have around that 55-60 catches, since the last time Manning was healthy Tamme was arguably his #2.But Decker could certainly end up being that number 1 guy. It just seems less likely to me than it does with Thomas. This will be one of the more fun teams to watch this year in either case.

All good points. Only comment is that other than the three years when Harrison/Wayne had rough parity, the guy Manning locked onto was always the one who was most-skilled and highly tenured.In the Broncos case, both Thomas and Decker appear to have solid skillsets, just different, with almost identical NFL experience and both starting fresh with Manning. Just makes it difficult this early to anoint one or the other as a clear number one.

 

[moderated]

While I can see why there would be some skepticism for Decker putting up WR1/Mike Wallace numbers, what I don't understand is why, with a vast improvement at the QB position, so many are projecting him for the same or even less TDs than he had last year. He put up 8 TDs with TEBOW under center for the most part. He's now going to put up 8 or even only 7 or 6 with Manning? I have a hard time buying into that. If anyone, I think with Thomas being the better deep threat that he will be the one with the max of 7 or 8 TDs that are being projected for Decker in most of this thread. I understand Manning most likely wont be the QB he used to be and projections for Decker to put up 1200 yards is a little optimistic, but I also think projections of 700 - 850 yards is just as head-scratching as the TD projections. Again, with a go-to-the-run QB like Tebow throwing the ball, Decker put up over 600 yards. How often does Manning abandon his reads as quickly and starts to run like Tebow? Not nearly as much, I would say. I think 800-900 yards would be the floor for Decker with Manning there. As for people projecting less than 1000 for Decker because Denver is a run-oriented team...um...If Decker can't break 1000 because they like to run in Denver, then someone better call Brandon Lloyd. 1400 yards and 11 TDs... on a run-oriented team without Peyton Manning. Just saying...there have been recent exceptions to that idea. I can see about 1000 and 10/11 TDs for Decker if both he and Manning stay healthy. Anything more would be a pleasant surprise. Anything less will be because of setbacks.

During his prime, Reggie Wayne averaged 8 TD's a season from 2003-2010. Harrison averaged about 12 TD's a season.That was also when Manning was in his prime, and during his career he threw between 26 and 33 TD's (excluding his 49 TD season). I think he'll throw right 30 TD's but since he spreads the ball around so much I doubt more than 20 of those will go to Thomas and Decker.

And Wayne and Harrison were elite talents. Sorry, but decked is not even close to their level.Stoklet had one fluke year with manning, so I guess decker could pull a stokley but it would be a big exception, and betting on exceptions is a losers strategy.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

what I don't understand is why, with a vast improvement at the QB position, so many are projecting him for the same or even less TDs than he had last year.

TDs are one of the most, if not the most, unpredictable statistics to project.Two and a half reasons for me:

1. Manning has not historically been guilty of vapor lock on any one particular WR in the red zone.

2. They've brought in two new TEs, one of whom in particular(Dreessen) has shown to have the ability to get open inside the 20 the past couple seasons.

2.5 This isn't necessarily pre-'11 Peyton Manning that will be throwing to these receivers.

Regardless of that, if Manning's healthy and, for the most part, "right" all year most likely all of the targets available to him are going to cancel out anyone on the team being "the TD guy." Particularly since they went out and got a couple of TEs who should create mismatches in the RZ most weeks.

Maybe one of the WRs/TEs in Denver cracks double digit scores, but I wouldn't be banking on it. If anyone does, it'll probably be Thomas due to his ability to house it from long distance.

 

[jurb26]

I'm not seeing the love-fest for Decker that many are here. I'm seeing a lot of folks expecting Wayne or Harrison type numbers for Decker. I'm just not able to see that type of production for him for a couple of reasons. 1. I don't think he's as good as either of those guys. 2. I don't think he's the best WR on his team. 3. I don't think Manning will be as good now as he was then. 4. I don't think Den will pass the ball enough for him to attain those type of numbers.

Projection;

58 receptions, 840 yds., 6 TDs

 

[Tau837]

I think the expectations on Eric Decker from previous posts are out of hand. They have him pegged as a solid WR1, which is ridiculous. He caught 44 of his 94 targets last year and his floor so far in projections is 85/1100/6. Wow! I know everyone is assuming that Peyton is going to make Decker an all-pro caliber receiver. But Manning himself is a risk to get through the season and perform well within a new weather environment, new coaches, & new receivers. There are just too many variables to take any of this for granted or project that kind of instant success for any Broncos receiver. If people continue to overhype Denver’s offensive players because of Manning (and I can’t wait to see the D. Thomas spotlight), they are going to be the most overdrafted lot in fantasy. Expectations are just a bit rich. I like Eric Decker a lot. He’s got great potential to have a better year than last year with Tim Tebow. But unless he’s projected to slip out of the draft status that he’s being hyped with, I’ll be passing on him in all drafts this year. Projection: 60/825/8

 

[Tau837]

I think it is very possible Manning won't play 16 games, but my philosophy is not to project injuries, so for purposes of this projection I will assume he does play all 16 games.

Manning is in a new environment - new stadium, new offense, new coaches, new teammates - and he is 36 and missed all of last season. IMO this is a non-trivial factor that will apply to all of my projections (passing attempts, passing yards, passing TDs) for Manning.

In Indianapolis, Manning averaged 34.7 passing attempts per game, which is an average of 555 passing attempts per season. Denver had just 429 passing attempts last year, but that was largely due to Tebow, and doesn't have any bearing on Manning's situation. Orton averaged 35.5 attempts in the first 4 games last year, but IMO that sample size is too small to be predictive.

However, consider Fox's history. Not including last season, he was the head coach of the Panthers from 2002-2010. His teams in Carolina averaged just below 30 passing attempts per game; they averaged 480 passing attempts per season. Meanwhile, Fox's teams have typically had a high number of rushing attempts. From 2002-2010, Fox's teams were #9 in the NFL in rushing attempts, and just 18 rushing attempts behind the #5 team. Those Carolina teams averaged 29 rushing attempts per game; they averaged 463 rushing attempts per season. Of course, he didn't have a QB of Manning's caliber on those teams, so it's not a perfect comparison.

Put it all together, and I think Manning will attempt fewer passes than he did in Indianapolis. I'll project 32 passing attempts per game, which projects to 512 over 16 games.

In 2010, Manning averaged 6.9 ypa. That is noteworthy for two reasons: (1) it was his most recent season, and (2) it was the only season in his career prior to this one in which he was coming off offseason neck surgery. In the 5 year span of 2006-2010, Manning averaged 7.5 ypa. I will choose a middle ground and project 7.2 ypa. With 512 passing attempts, that projects to 3686 passing yards.

In 2010, Manning's TD percentage was 4.9%. In the 5 year span of 2006-2010, Manning's combined TD percentage was 5.4%. I will go with 5.0%. With 512 passing attempts, that projects to 26 TD passes.

So, turning to Manning's receivers, how might the targets be divided? Looking at Manning's history in Indianapolis and comparing it to the talent on the Broncos offense, I could see something like this:

RBs 85

TEs 120

WRs 307

So, how to divide the WR targets? Looking at last year's Denver distribution and also considering Manning's history, I could see something like this:

Thomas 120

Decker 105

Other WRs 82

Last year, Decker caught just 44 of 95 targets (46%), but that was with erratic throws from his QB. Manning should give him much higher quality targets, so I'll assume Decker catches 65% of his targets, which would yield 68 receptions.

Last year, Decker averaged 13.9 ypr, and I don't see a compelling reason to estimate any different this year. 68 receptions at 13.9 ypr yields 945 receiving yards.

Last year, Decker had 8 TD receptions. However, 4 of his TDs came with Orton while Thomas was not yet playing. I think Thomas is the WR on the Broncos who is most likely to hit the big play TDs, leaving Decker to earn his TDs on shorter throws. I think the TDs could break down like this:

Thomas - 8

Decker - 5

Other WRs - 3

TEs - 7

RBs - 3

So, all that said, here is my Decker projection: 68/945/5. This projection is based on both Manning and Decker playing all 16 games, so it carries some risk. If either of them misses time, I would obviously expect lower production.

 

[Heep]

Last year, Decker had 8 TD receptions. However, IMO his total was inflated by the Tebow effect of defenses coming up to stop him and the overall run game and allowing receivers to get behind coverage. I don't see that effect happening with Manning under center; in fact, it will be just the opposite, as opponents are willing to give up the run game in order to prevent big plays in the passing game. So IMO his TD total from last year is not predictive.

He caught 4 of the 8 tds in Weeks 1-4 with Orton. The other 4 came when Tebow took over for the final 12 games. So I don't think that's the reason they were "inflated". If anything, they were hurt badly by Tebow. Check this quote out...

The Broncos are planning on having WR Eric Decker run 35-to-40 pass routes per game. Analysis: Prior to spraining his MCL in the wild card playoffs a year ago, Decker had run a route on 94-percent of Denver's pass plays, which worked out to 30 routes per game. Consider, however, that the Broncos ran the ball on half of Decker's snaps. That won't be the case with Manning in town.

 

[Tau837]

Last year, Decker had 8 TD receptions. However, IMO his total was inflated by the Tebow effect of defenses coming up to stop him and the overall run game and allowing receivers to get behind coverage. I don't see that effect happening with Manning under center; in fact, it will be just the opposite, as opponents are willing to give up the run game in order to prevent big plays in the passing game. So IMO his TD total from last year is not predictive.

He caught 4 of the 8 tds in Weeks 1-4 with Orton. The other 4 came when Tebow took over for the final 12 games. So I don't think that's the reason they were "inflated". If anything, they were hurt badly by Tebow.

Good point. However, it is also true that Thomas missed the first 5 games, so Decker caught those 4 TDs from Orton when Thomas wasn't playing. I stand by my earlier projection.

 

[Tau837]

Check this quote out...

The Broncos are planning on having WR Eric Decker run 35-to-40 pass routes per game. Analysis: Prior to spraining his MCL in the wild card playoffs a year ago, Decker had run a route on 94-percent of Denver's pass plays, which worked out to 30 routes per game. Consider, however, that the Broncos ran the ball on half of Decker's snaps. That won't be the case with Manning in town.

30 routes per game equalling 94 percent of Denver's pass plays implies Denver had 32 pass plays per game on average, for a total of 511 for the regular season. Denver had 429 passing attempts and 42 sacks, so I suppose this implies there were about 40 times when pass plays were called and the QB ran the ball instead. I suppose that makes sense.IMO this is merely stating the obvious as relates to Decker. Everyone expects the Broncos to attempt more passes this year, which means it is a given the WRs will run more routes.However, this also seems to suggest the Broncos will pass at least 35-40 times per game, for a total of 530-610 passing attempts, assuming 30 sacks. I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[MDSkinner]

All good points. Only comment is that other than the three years when Harrison/Wayne had rough parity, the guy Manning locked onto was always the one who was most-skilled and highly tenured.In the Broncos case, both Thomas and Decker appear to have solid skillsets, just different, with almost identical NFL experience and both starting fresh with Manning. Just makes it difficult this early to anoint one or the other as a clear number one.

I completely agree and though my eyes tell me that Thomas is that guy, it really is on very limited action and I do not feel complete confidence in it at all. If you believe Decker is that guy, I would probably almost completely swap the numbers. (85 for Decker, 60 for Thomas).

 

[Touchdown There]

These posts with Decker at 1100+ are more than a little ludicrous. Is it possible? Yea. Is it also possible for the Packers to go 16-0 and beat the Browns in the super bowl? Yea, that's possible too.This Manning situation has some similarities to the Montana move in 1993.1) Montana was 37 his first year with the Chiefs2) Montana did not play the previous season due to an injury (elbow)3) The chiefs had a strong running game prior to Montana taking over, just as the Broncos do now, and a decent defense.Results?Montana threw for around 200 yards per game that year, and the next year. We're talking about one of the best passing QBs ever, here. Montana could thread the needle in his prime with intense velocity, super accurate, and one of the most mentally tough players to ever play the game.Now, the game has changed, for sure. Inflate his stats a little bit for that and let's say Manning comes back stronger from his injury than Montana did. Even if both of those happen we're talking around 250 yards per game. Manning has never been a 5,000 yard QB - in fact, his career yards per game is 263! And that's without injury, and in a very familiar situation, and half of his career with two dominate WRs. So 250 at this point would be a ceiling for him, and even that is generous.With a 250 ypg ceiling, we're talking, at best, a 4,000 yard season. This is if everything lines up. Also, at best, if Manning falls head over heels in love with Decker, he's going to get 25% of the targets. So we're talking, at best, if the stars align, Manning is healthy, Decker doesn't get injured, Manning gives 25% of his targets to Decker ... then Decker will approach 1,000 yards. Not go over, mind you, but approach it.Realistically? It's not likely Manning will throw for 4,000 yards, and it's not likely Decker will get 25% of his targets either. For Decker to have 1100+ Manning would have to throw for 4500 and that's just not going to happen for a 36-year old coming off multiple neck surgeries that hasn't played in a real NFL game for that extended of a period. Only six QBs last year threw for 4500+. Come back to earth people!70 / 850 / 9 TDs

it's a fair point about a guy coming back off injury in a new situation -- I don't think manning did particularly well early in the year coming back off whatever surgery he had a few years ago, but the montana comparison is pretty useless.what you choose not to mention is that montana was a 210 ypg career passer in sfo, while manning stands at 263 ypg in indy.out of his 13 years, manning has failed to throw for 4k yards only twice -- one of those years being his 3-13 rookie season, meanwhile, montana never threw for 4k yards once in 15 yrs.they are also 2 different injuries to 2 different players in 2 different medical eras.what would happen if manning falls head over heels in love with a receiver?well, I don't want to follow one pointless comparison up with another, but if you want a ceiling, marvin harrison averaged 100/1400/12.6 over an 8 yr period.ps"Results?Montana threw for around 200 yards per game that year, and the next year."btw, one of us is looking at bad info because I have him at 234 ypg in his 2nd year at kc at age 38, which would be around 10% better than his career sfo average, and right around the median.

Very well presented.

 

[Crazy Tony]

These posts with Decker at 1100+ are more than a little ludicrous. Is it possible? Yea. Is it also possible for the Packers to go 16-0 and beat the Browns in the super bowl? Yea, that's possible too.This Manning situation has some similarities to the Montana move in 1993.1) Montana was 37 his first year with the Chiefs2) Montana did not play the previous season due to an injury (elbow)3) The chiefs had a strong running game prior to Montana taking over, just as the Broncos do now, and a decent defense.Results?Montana threw for around 200 yards per game that year, and the next year. We're talking about one of the best passing QBs ever, here. Montana could thread the needle in his prime with intense velocity, super accurate, and one of the most mentally tough players to ever play the game.Now, the game has changed, for sure. Inflate his stats a little bit for that and let's say Manning comes back stronger from his injury than Montana did. Even if both of those happen we're talking around 250 yards per game. Manning has never been a 5,000 yard QB - in fact, his career yards per game is 263! And that's without injury, and in a very familiar situation, and half of his career with two dominate WRs. So 250 at this point would be a ceiling for him, and even that is generous.With a 250 ypg ceiling, we're talking, at best, a 4,000 yard season. This is if everything lines up. Also, at best, if Manning falls head over heels in love with Decker, he's going to get 25% of the targets. So we're talking, at best, if the stars align, Manning is healthy, Decker doesn't get injured, Manning gives 25% of his targets to Decker ... then Decker will approach 1,000 yards. Not go over, mind you, but approach it.Realistically? It's not likely Manning will throw for 4,000 yards, and it's not likely Decker will get 25% of his targets either. For Decker to have 1100+ Manning would have to throw for 4500 and that's just not going to happen for a 36-year old coming off multiple neck surgeries that hasn't played in a real NFL game for that extended of a period. Only six QBs last year threw for 4500+. Come back to earth people!70 / 850 / 9 TDs

I appreciate this post as to the HYPE and over-valuing Decker. I'm big on him since I drafted him in the 3rd round a couple of years ago as a rookie. I've been waiting and I do think his situation will pay off. 70-850-9tds isn't horrible. In fact it's pretty great. 1000+ yards. I would take as a bonus. Anything over 8TDs is hard to count on just because. Decker is decent sized 6'2. 214? Decent red zone target. Will he get 25% of Mannings targets I think so. Probably more. Part of the "realistic" approach you mention is that Manning is not a 5000yd QB type player...average is "only 263" yd per game. 2010 Manning threw for 300+ yards 7 times in 18 weeks. 4700 yds. 2009 Manning threw for 300+yards 11 times in 21 weeks. 4500 yards. 9 of these came during regular season. Manning hasn't missed games but when he gets rested in week 17 after 1 series for playoffs that does bring his average down. I think manning is capable of getting it done 4000+yds and until he fails to do so, I'm not betting against him. He's only failed to throw for 4000+ yards twice. 2011 (dnp) and 2005. 3700 because they seemed to focus more on running. attempts were way down. Even if the Broncos focus more on running, some of those could be a screen pass. I think they'll be creative. For a player to get to 100 REC you need about 170 targets. With Decker's hands...let's say he's good with 160. He'll have to catch 62.5% of the targets...doable. But to get that many targets....there will have to be...533 pass attempts where Decker gets 30% of those targets. That's not unreasonable in today's passing league. Decker's #s could be lower. Which is why I appreciate your post. I think 80-100 catches. is reasonable...the higher above 80 we go the more it's a bonus. Week in and week out though I'd take Decker over Thomas as a consistent point producer while Thomas could have some bigger games I still see decker as the 12-15pt/week player.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

While the Thomas/Decker/Manning combination is one of this years more intriguing debates, I doubt I'll wind up with any one of them on the basis that it will take but one guy to overdraft them to eliminate them from dropping to you at a value you feel will be more commisserate with their production. I say this because once training camp starts, I suspect there will be a Tebow part of SportsCenter and a Manning one...and then whoever tore ACL's and will miss the3 season will be flashed on the screen in the 58th minute of the show.

With that said, if I'm taking bets on who Manning will help more - Thomas or Decker...I think it will be Decker. Decker had Kyle Orton for about 4.75 games last year and through that period, he put up 22/256/4. Respectable numbers to be sure...but not mind-blowing (his TD rate though was nice). But once Tebow took over, Decker's fantasy value disappeared and while he had spurts of production, the Broncos moved away from any type of ryhthmic passing game to Tebowmania which was the complete opposite. Demaryius Thomas became Tebow's go-to guy and Decker was an afterthought most afternoons. After equalling or eclipsing 5 receptions in 3 of his first four games, Decker only reached that number of receptions in a game one other time the remainder of the season.

On the other hand, the move to Tebowmania might have actually benefitted Thomas. Coming from the triple-option at Georgia Tech, he was used to providing sporadic bursts of big plays and I suspect his comfort level and focus in that offense was fairly high, particularly coming back from injury. Had the Broncos offense been established come Week 7 when Thomas made his return, it's debatable whether Thomas would have had much of an impact.

So when I think about the Broncos in 2012 under Manning, I see Decker as the primary beneficiary although that doesn't mean he'll be the more productive receiver - Thomas has significantly more upside...but I do see a passing game that is more befitting of what Decker can bring to the table.

If I'm evaluating Thomas/Decker - Thomas is immensely talented but still significantly raw. At times, he'll be able to simply win on that alone, but I also think he'll be an up and down player (upside in 2012 would resemble Vincent Jackson). Decker though seems more polished despite the fact that he barely had a 50% catch rate with Orton. Remember, last season was also Decker's first on the field so there is a learning curve here. But if there is any player who could become the 80-85 reception guy on the Broncos - IMO, it's Decker. He'll need to improve his catch rate, but by having Manning alone, that should improve. And as a big target, Decker could emerge as an above average possession receiver.

Prediction: 83 Receptions, 971 Receiving Yards 8 TD's.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

With that said, if I'm taking bets on who Manning will help more - Thomas or Decker...I think it will be Decker. Decker had Kyle Orton for about 4.75 games last year and through that period, he put up 22/256/4. Respectable numbers to be sure...but not mind-blowing (his TD rate though was nice). But once Tebow took over, Decker's fantasy value disappeared and while he had spurts of production, the Broncos moved away from any type of ryhthmic passing game to Tebowmania which was the complete opposite. Demaryius Thomas became Tebow's go-to guy and Decker was an afterthought most afternoons. After equalling or eclipsing 5 receptions in 3 of his first four games, Decker only reached that number of receptions in a game one other time the remainder of the season.

Demaryius wasn't Tebow's favorite target when Tebow took over. Tebow forced the ball a lot to Decker early on, but moved on to Thomas when Decker had some drops, some plays where he stepped out of bounds when he had plenty of room to get his feet down, and most of all showed that he's completely inept at bringing the ball down when he's in any sort of traffic.Peyton will be a good fit for Decker because he can hit him in the windows when defenders aren't right on him, which is exactly what Decker needs. If there is a defender on Decker's hip he will not come down with the ball no matter how out of position that defender is.

 

[Bitter Hate]

I've seen some insane projections, but the decker ones top them all.

I was in full agreement with the spirit of this post until I got a look at Decker's 4 games with Orton last year: 20 rec, 270 yards, 5 TDs.Now even a hampered Manning ought to be an improvement over Orton, and Decker himself should be better... along with the fact that Matt Waldman swears by him, I see every reason to be bullish on this guy.80/1200/10

But this is a massive leap you are taking...basically, you are saying that one QBs favorite target (who was so well thought of, he was traded midseason) will automatically be the other's...the "other", who by the way, is coming off of massive neck surgery. Now I actually believe in Manning, but I also believe in the fact that the slot guy in his offense gets the "leavings" of the TE and the outside receivers. I believe he plays slot (correct me if I am wrong), but if so, in the past, while it has yielded good numbers at times (Stokely in 2004 and collie in 2009 and 2010), I would not necessarily bank on that if Demaryius Thomas pulls his weight.And BTW, none of those guys came close to those total numbers...your numbers are looking top 5 in PPR.

 

[Tau837]

For a player to get to 100 REC you need about 170 targets. With Decker's hands...let's say he's good with 160. He'll have to catch 62.5% of the targets...doable. But to get that many targets....there will have to be...533 pass attempts where Decker gets 30% of those targets. That's not unreasonable in today's passing league.

I think this is way off base. It's not a given Decker will get 100 targets, much less 160.

 

[mjr]

43 receptions. 607 yards. 14.11 yard average. If Decker can get 75 receptions with Manning at the same average, that'll put him close to 1000. To get 75 over 16 games he only needs to average 4-5 receptions a game. Decker averaged 5 receptions per game with Orton, and while I do realize it was only 4 games, I think Manning can at least pick up where they left off. Not so outlandish to expect.

Does anyone here really believe Manning is going to drag Decker down instead of give him a boost? Tebow dragged him down

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Does anyone here really believe Manning is going to drag Decker down instead of give him a boost? Tebow dragged him down

I personally think Thomas is going to 'drag Decker down' just like he did most of last season.If Manning returns to throw 4500+ yards some of these Decker projections could end up more neurotic than completely crazy, but I'm not betting on that. At his current price the best play is to stay away IMO.

 

[Tau837]

Most people seem to be assuming Manning will give a healthy boost to Decker and Thomas, but it isn't clear if they are reconciling those expectations with the likely boost he will give to the other WRs along with RBs and TEs in the passing game.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I think there are just way too many variables to give a realistic projection on Eric Decker this year. That holds true for pretty much the entire Denver offense. Manning could come in and throw for 5000 yards. There was little to no indication that his brother was going to come close to doing so last year, but Eli came in over 4900. We're also seeing Manning in a completely different situation this year, and coming off major injury. Two red flags that could undermine the Broncos offense this season.

Basically, my line of thought is that Decker could have a Jordy Nelson/Victor Cruz type season if things go well in Denver. He could also easily fall into the barely startable wr3/4 type category if things cave in.

There's a ton of WRs in that middling category this year. If you want a sure bet, Decker probably isn't your guy. If you like to roll the dice on some high upside, Decker has that in spades this year.

 

[Crazy Tony]

For a player to get to 100 REC you need about 170 targets. With Decker's hands...let's say he's good with 160. He'll have to catch 62.5% of the targets...doable. But to get that many targets....there will have to be...533 pass attempts where Decker gets 30% of those targets. That's not unreasonable in today's passing league.

I think this is way off base. It's not a given Decker will get 100 targets, much less 160.

With ORTON/TEBOW he managed 94 targets. 44 REC 8Tds. Look at Target Stats:2011: 170 targets...2 players both 100 recp2010: 170 targets 3 ....2 players with 100+ receptions Larry Fitzgerald 90. 2009: 170 target players 1. 5 WRs caught 100 passes and 1 TE.... Dallas Clark 100/132 targets. 2008: 170 target players 2. 3 100 rec WRs. 2007: 170 target players = 1. 6, 100 catch WRs. Welker did it on 145 targets. 112 Receptions. Crazy good. I think the odds of Decker getting 100 receptions are small. 80 seems right and 120 targets very doable.My point in the previous post was to take refute some of the info the previous guy posted about drawing Manning's stats and Joe Montana stuff and just show that it's not out of the question that the situation could create where Decker gets those #s. 160 targets would be high for Decker. But 533 pass attempts for Manning isn't out of the question. You don't trade for Manning just to run the crap out of the ball. Now if 30% of those plays were thrown to Decker...it's possible he could get 160 targets. A more realistic % might be 25% or 133 targets. That's more like it. 60% catch rate = 79 catches. Realistic numbers. More down to Earth. I don't think Manning drags decker or Thomas down. I think he helps. I think running game balance and def helps too. I think Decker's strengths are his hands/polish at WR...compared to DThomas. Manning I believe will like consistency. He'll like that Thomas can turn a routine play into a TD but trust Decker more. He raised both their stock. Tebow brought them down. I was smart enough to Draft Decker as a late 3rd or 4th round pick and keep him on my roster for 2 years. So i'm not overpaying for him. I'm not ready to trade him either. I think he still has upside and I want to see what that is.