fantasyfootballadvantage
Footballguy
And Because the ADP says that no one will take him til round three that is set in stone. That is true, if you KNOW that no one will take him til round three, but there really isn't any way of knowing.
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'Expert' Draft I just took part in... (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Chris Smith
- Start date
Sack-Religious
Footballguy
Clayton is saying that the pick was not a "value" pick.You can't be a slave to ADP, but it is a good indicator of value. The key in this hobby is drafting the players that you WANT, not the players that ADP dictates.
fantasyfootballadvantage
Footballguy
That is my point exactly. I agree right now looking at McNabb at pick 1.11 he doesn't look like a "Value" pick, but if FFsearch has him rated as the best QB with the best season ever and he actually does throw 50tds, that at the end of the season it would be a "Value" Pick. Also if he has him rated that high (which im sure he doesn't) then the only way to be sure to get him, is to pick him.
Miss a little miss a lot i guess. This thread took me forever to read. FFsearch, you need to relax a little. People that get all bent out of shape over other posters dont last very long. IMO your draft was very different and one i think was really bad. You made some very good points, after your initial rant. I think you will be very competitive, but i think you are going to have to do a lot of work (trades/waivers,etc.) to win this league. This is just my opinion so no need to have a chit fit.
Sack-Religious
Footballguy
That is where we disagree. Player performance does not factor into draft value. A player performing up to 1st round status, and drafted in 1st round does not equal value if they could have been had in the late 2nd. It does not make it a "bad" pick
fantasyfootballadvantage
Footballguy
Player performance is the biggest factor in draft value. What do you base your picks on if not projections of future performace. Also how could you ever prove that any player would have gone or not gone and in which round. McNabb went in the first round, whos to say if FFsearch doesn't take him the next guy in line wouldn't have. VBD Drafting is all about each induviduals projections of performance for the next year. If he had McNabb as the number 1 QB and he is the second one taken overall then to him it is a value pick.
He may not have been a value pick according to anyone else in the world but if that is where he is rated on that cheet and that is the level at which he performs then he is a value pick.
Player performance is only half of draft value. Getting the player at a draft position lower than his performance is the other half. To use the overused example from 2004, if you took Muhammed with your 2nd round pick after Moss and/or Owens, is that value? Even though he ranked #1 at the end of the year, you (probably) could have had him 8-10 rounds later based on his ADP. Projecting McNabb #1 with the best season ever and drafting him in round 1 (when he would be there in 2 or 3) isn't getting value, it's doing amazing projections! There is a difference between the two.
Player performance is only half of draft value. Getting the player at a draft position lower than his performance is the other half. To use the overused example from 2004, if you took Muhammed with your 2nd round pick after Moss and/or Owens, is that value? Even though he ranked #1 at the end of the year, you (probably) could have had him 8-10 rounds later based on his ADP. Projecting McNabb #1 with the best season ever and drafting him in round 1 (when he would be there in 2 or 3) isn't getting value, it's doing amazing projections! There is a difference between the two.
fantasyfootballadvantage
Footballguy
My contention with that is, how do you know he will be there whether or not ADP says he will be? You don't. So basically what you guys are saying is that you only look at how the guy is projected to do during the season, and not how he actually does in the season when considering value.Player performance is only half of draft value. Getting the player at a draft position lower than his performance is the other half. To use the overused example from 2004, if you took Muhammed with your 2nd round pick after Moss and/or Owens, is that value? Even though he ranked #1 at the end of the year, you (probably) could have had him 8-10 rounds later based on his ADP. Projecting McNabb #1 with the best season ever and drafting him in round 1 (when he would be there in 2 or 3) isn't getting value, it's doing amazing projections! There is a difference between the two.
If that is the case then someone who got Ricky Williams in the 5th round last year had a great value pick? Even though he never played a game or had any stats.
To me its not a good value unless the player surpasses his draft spot. So if you pick McNabb as the second QB and he ends up the best QB.... then it was a value pick.
Player performance is only half of draft value. Getting the player at a draft position lower than his performance is the other half. To use the overused example from 2004, if you took Muhammed with your 2nd round pick after Moss and/or Owens, is that value? Even though he ranked #1 at the end of the year, you (probably) could have had him 8-10 rounds later based on his ADP.
Projecting McNabb #1 with the best season ever and drafting him in round 1 (when he would be there in 2 or 3) isn't getting value, it's doing amazing projections! There is a difference between the two.
My contention with that is, how do you know he will be there whether or not ADP says he will be? You don't.
So basically what you guys are saying is that you only look at how the guy is projected to do during the season, and not how he actually does in the season when considering value.
If that is the case then someone who got Ricky Williams in the 5th round last year had a great value pick? Even though he never played a game or had any stats.
To me its not a good value unless the player surpasses his draft spot. So if you pick McNabb as the second QB and he ends up the best QB.... then it was a value pick.
Keep in mind that we are judging the value of a draft that occurred today (or yesterday). If we were judging the draft that Williams went in the fifth the day after (or even the day before he announced his "retirement") then yeah, he got exceptional value! This thread is judging the draft value as we see it today. Sure, hindsight is always 20/20, but then FF wouldn't be as much fun!
Projecting McNabb #1 with the best season ever and drafting him in round 1 (when he would be there in 2 or 3) isn't getting value, it's doing amazing projections! There is a difference between the two.
My contention with that is, how do you know he will be there whether or not ADP says he will be? You don't.
So basically what you guys are saying is that you only look at how the guy is projected to do during the season, and not how he actually does in the season when considering value.
If that is the case then someone who got Ricky Williams in the 5th round last year had a great value pick? Even though he never played a game or had any stats.
To me its not a good value unless the player surpasses his draft spot. So if you pick McNabb as the second QB and he ends up the best QB.... then it was a value pick.
Keep in mind that we are judging the value of a draft that occurred today (or yesterday). If we were judging the draft that Williams went in the fifth the day after (or even the day before he announced his "retirement") then yeah, he got exceptional value! This thread is judging the draft value as we see it today. Sure, hindsight is always 20/20, but then FF wouldn't be as much fun!
fantasyfootballadvantage
Footballguy
My contention with that is, how do you know he will be there whether or not ADP says he will be? You don't.Player performance is only half of draft value. Getting the player at a draft position lower than his performance is the other half. To use the overused example from 2004, if you took Muhammed with your 2nd round pick after Moss and/or Owens, is that value? Even though he ranked #1 at the end of the year, you (probably) could have had him 8-10 rounds later based on his ADP.
Projecting McNabb #1 with the best season ever and drafting him in round 1 (when he would be there in 2 or 3) isn't getting value, it's doing amazing projections! There is a difference between the two.
So basically what you guys are saying is that you only look at how the guy is projected to do during the season, and not how he actually does in the season when considering value.
If that is the case then someone who got Ricky Williams in the 5th round last year had a great value pick? Even though he never played a game or had any stats.
To me its not a good value unless the player surpasses his draft spot. So if you pick McNabb as the second QB and he ends up the best QB.... then it was a value pick.
Keep in mind that we are judging the value of a draft that occurred today (or yesterday). If we were judging the draft that Williams went in the fifth the day after (or even the day before he announced his "retirement") then yeah, he got exceptional value! This thread is judging the draft value as we see it today. Sure, hindsight is always 20/20, but then FF wouldn't be as much fun!
You nailed it. That was my original point. We can't really judge whether or not it is a value pick until the season is over.
Keep in mind that we are judging the value of a draft that occurred today (or yesterday). If we were judging the draft that Williams went in the fifth the day after (or even the day before he announced his "retirement") then yeah, he got exceptional value! This thread is judging the draft value as we see it today. Sure, hindsight is always 20/20, but then FF wouldn't be as much fun!My contention with that is, how do you know he will be there whether or not ADP says he will be? You don't.Player performance is only half of draft value. Getting the player at a draft position lower than his performance is the other half. To use the overused example from 2004, if you took Muhammed with your 2nd round pick after Moss and/or Owens, is that value? Even though he ranked #1 at the end of the year, you (probably) could have had him 8-10 rounds later based on his ADP.
Projecting McNabb #1 with the best season ever and drafting him in round 1 (when he would be there in 2 or 3) isn't getting value, it's doing amazing projections! There is a difference between the two.
So basically what you guys are saying is that you only look at how the guy is projected to do during the season, and not how he actually does in the season when considering value.
If that is the case then someone who got Ricky Williams in the 5th round last year had a great value pick? Even though he never played a game or had any stats.
To me its not a good value unless the player surpasses his draft spot. So if you pick McNabb as the second QB and he ends up the best QB.... then it was a value pick.
You nailed it. That was my original point. We can't really judge whether or not it is a value pick until the season is over.
No, you can't tell if the projections are good. Muhammed in the 2nd round (or even 4th, 5th or 6th) last year would still not be a value pick. In order to get true value, you need to have a good feel for where the other owners would draft him, not how he will finish the season.
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
FF Advantage,Your example makes McNabb a "good" pick, not a "value" pick.
FantasyFootballXtreme
Footballguy
Botton line, McNabb could have been taken with FFSearch's #14 overall pick if he wanted to guarantee that he got him (still not good value considering what players would still be available)... but even if he did that (take Mcnabb at 14 instead), his team would be SOOO much better with a Jamal Lewis and McNabb.IMO, two straight runners (unless you get Manning, or Moss later than usual) is the only way to draft in a league that allows for three starting runners. Can you win with Randy Moss and Terrell Owens as your first two picks? Sure, but it is just a lot harder, especially when teams around you are starting three runners like these teams below:Smitty (fantasyfootballxtreme)Priest HolmesKevin JonesDe'shuan FosterRuss Bliss (fantasyfootballstarters)Clinton PortisRudi JohnsonChris BrownGoldy (fantasyfootballxtreme)Edgerrin JamesTiki BarberTatum Bell/DunnPaul (fantasyfootballadvantage)Ahman GreenCorey DillonJJ ArringtonPaul (askthecommish)Dom DavisSteven JacksonBensonAnyway, there are a ton of ways to win a league, Stud WR theories, Stud RB theories, whatever - IMO 3 solid runners is the best path to take to win this type of league. I am very sure most would agree.Nice job everyone, this has really been an active discussion! I am just happy to be involved and I am having a good time reading all of the different takes on our FFXtreme Expert Draft/Results.
Monkeyface Prickleback
Footballguy
One thing is playing devil's advocate, but to defend this guy's early selections is laughable. It is.
fantasyfootballadvantage
Footballguy
Ok, OK, I get it, you won't sway from your opinions and I don't plan on changing mine. Basically all I am saying is that if McNabb scores more fantasy points than any other QB this year, it was a value pick. I understand that its not as much of a value as if he had gotten him in round two or three, but it would still be a value.
fantasyfootballadvantage
Footballguy
LOL, just to make things clear, I am not defending him... I am playing devil's advocate. If you look back, I took Dillon one pick before he took McNabb.
FantasyFootballXtreme
Footballguy
Of course there is value, there is value in all picks. fantasyfootballadvantage, You are trying to re-define 'value pick', which isn't going to fly on this forum as it is a rule already written. Value pick is getting a guy where you shouldn't, not getting a guy that no one would have taken. Value is in everything, value pick is a term everyone has accepted as great value for the selection.
fantasyfootballadvantage
Footballguy
Im not trying to re-define anything, I was just playing devil advocate.
pigskinliquors
Dr. Parrothead
Oh Fun with numbers!!!What an excellent example of hindsight being 20/20, or
IF somebody drafts RB, RB, WR, WR in rounds 1 through 4 and scores 100 points LESS than Somebody who drafts RB, RB, WR, WR in rounds 3 through 6 they are bound to lose.
File this under "D" for duh.
No, there could be someone that will reach for him in round one.
I would amend that to read, "They key in this hobby is drafting the players that you want just before your opponents take them."
Yeah, it's nice to have some new ideas, concepts and 'experts' on the boards. Since we all, in our own way (or own heads!), consider ourselves FF 'experts' deep down inside, different perspectives are a welcome addition to the sometime stale nature of these boards.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Wow, quite the read here. I've been coming to this site since the Mr. Football years and the yellow message board and one thing I have learned is that there is certainly a herd mentality here. Everybody gets behind FBGs stats as if the games to come are just a formality. I don't know what FFSearch was thinking when he took the McNabb pick and neither does anybody else. But if he had him rated high and didn't think he'd last, he made the right pick.I do all my own projections. I go with my gut on projections a lot. Who here picked Curtis Martin to lead the league in rushing and to do it with less than 1700 yards? That total would have been good for 3rd the season before. But nobody saw that coming so to sit in here and say he wasn't value if he was picked in the second round last season is bunk. True, hindsight is 20/20 but how can we say that and then turn around and say that FFSearch made the wrong pick according to the VBD App?Has anybody ever bothered to go back and look at a FF magazine from the previous year? They look crazy after the season. They are all way off. Has anybody ever bothered to check the accuracy of FBGs preseason projection with the luxury of hindsight? How accurate are they? Are they more or less accurate than the FF rags that come out in June? I don't know, but I'd bet they aren't that much different in terms of accuracy.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
And why would that be a reach? Because FBGs project it to be so? That's just arrogance.
FantasyFootballXtreme
Footballguy
All good points. Lets start a new topic...What picks were steals? We talked about that a few pages back, but we have a ton of new faces here now. I would love to hear some new thoughts on steals and even some new team evaluations.
No, because his average draft position is in the third round.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
McNabb's current ADP is too low right now IMHO. I have him projected as the #2 QB well ahead of my third tier which is comprised of Culpepper and Bulger.I traded up to get him at 3.02 in my No Mercy league although my VBD application was tellling me to take him with my second round pick. Beating the ADP is what it's all about. It can be a fine line though as I have Kennison projected well ahead of most but in all of my drafts people continue to take him several rounds earlier than his ADP which has burnt me. I guess my point is that it can be a fine line when waiting on players you have projected highly for but wait on because of ADP.
fantasyfootballadvantage
Footballguy
Now where did you find this ADP site that can actually see the future?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
But are those all expert leagues 
fantasyfootballadvantage
Footballguy
Do any of those drafts matter at all to any of the owners?But are those all expert leagues
I find ADP to be of very limited use. Average numbers are pretty much meaningless. I have seen people in other threads threads say things like, "so-and-so's ADP is 3 so I'll take him with my late 2nd round pick." Well, no. Look at McNabb's ADP at Antsports right now. It is listed as 3.03. But his SPREAD is 1.08-4.04! Completely useless.
fantasyfootballadvantage
Footballguy
I'd be surprised if you could find that since ADP is a statistical analysis of the past.
1.08-4.04 = the spread from reach to value. If you really want him, you should take him with your last pick before the 3.03. If someone beats you to him, good luck to them I hope he sucks.
fantasyfootballadvantage
Footballguy
Actually I don't consider it statistical analysis of the past, I find it averaging of numbers from people who don't really take the time to prepare, and fly through a mock draft taking whoever looks good at the time.
fantasyfootballadvantage
Footballguy
I have had enough of this conversation. Its been good having all the commentary, im just sick of talking about McNabb and where his value starts and where it stops.Anyone else looking at the draft from six pages back have any thoughts on my team, besides... too much stock in Green Bay?
Interesting.
wannabee
Footballguy
Actually I don't consider it statistical analysis of the past, I find it averaging of numbers from people who don't really take the time to prepare, and fly through a mock draft taking whoever looks good at the time.
How is this different than what I read on the first page?
How is this different than what I read on the first page?
fantasyfootballadvantage
Footballguy
Hmmm....very interesting
Wingnut
Footballguy
This is true, but also true is the fact that the key word in ADP is "Average", meaning some people took him earlier, some took him later. The real key is knowing your league and knowing that if you want that player, do you have to take him closer to the 1.08 pick or closer to the 4.04 pick.A easy way of looking at it would be this: Lets say Joe Horns ADP is 3.05, and the ADP sample is from 20 drafts. If 10 drafters took him at 3.01, and 10 drafters took him 3.10, his average ADP is 3.05, even though nobody actually drafted him there. So does that mean that if you wait till 3.06 to take him it would be too late? Not necessarily. If youre drafting with people who think like the ones that took him at 3.10, he could probably be had at 3.06. That, according to ADP is a VALUE PICK, but at the same time, if you jump on him at 3.01 just before the 3.02 drafter was gonna take him, that is also considered in my book to be VALUE because you waited till the last possible pick before he would have been taken to get him. Thats the goal.
Something to remember, is that ADP is a loose guideline. Even so-called "serious mocks" sometimes have computer picks, and most people that do mocks are testing strategies to see what would work, so its not cut-and-dried that people will actually draft according to the averages. Heck, Ive done about 20 mocks, and drafted differently in each one. If I put out an ADP list from those 20 drafts, it would look nothing like how I would actually draft. Its all strategy trial-and-error to help prepare you for what COULD happen in certain situations.
Lastly, I think the guy who thinks McNabb was a "value pick" has a different definition of the term than most of us, but from McNabbs ADP "spread", if he wanted McNabb, that was probably the only chance he had to take him (unless he fell to the end of 3, which is kind of a longshot). Sometimes drafting near the turns force you into reaching a bit in order to not miss the boat on someone you just gotta have. Ive done it, and probably will do it this year at some point. Not every pick of mine will be a value pick, but the majority will. Thats just how it goes.
fantasyfootballadvantage
Footballguy
Actually I don't even think he is a "Value Pick" all I was saying is if at the end of the year he is the best QB in fantasy football, he would be worth a 1.11 pick. Therefore, be valuable to his fantasy football owner.
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Chris Smith
The Head Goon!
In all honesty, I am not in the camp of taking any quarterback in round one (sorry P. Manning fantasy owners). Last year was a strange one in that Manning, Culpepper and McNabb put up huge fantasy numbers. I don't expect those three players to be quite so high in 2005... Manning had a career year... Culpepper lost Moss... McNabb fighting with Owens could hurt PLUS he also had a career yearCan any of those three duplicate last year's success. Yes, I am sure that could but I find it unlikely they will be able to.There is a reason selecting a quarterback in round over the last several years brought loug laughter and witty insults from owners 'in the know'. Unless you league starts two quarterbacks, the drop off from quarterback # 1 to quarterback # 12 and even beyond that simply isn't that high unless a career season occurs.It will be the rare draft that I don't go RB/RB, WR,RB or WR/WR (in the right circumstance) in the 1st two rounds. Starting any other way puts you behind the eight ball.That said. If somebody is thorougly convinced a player will put up a career season and can back that up with sound analysis and if there is a chance that player can be taken in round one, then it would make sense to take that player in question.I believe starting with a quarterback and tight end is a scary proposition and puts a team significantly behind the curve at the toughest position to fill (running back).Nice to see all the comments within this thread though. Dialogue like this can help everyone become a stronger fantasy owner.Myself, I know I am higher on Michael Vick, Lee Suggs and Chad Johnson than some owners are but you didn't see me take them in this orderChad Johnson # 1 overallMichael Vick 2nd round (24 overall)Lee Suggs 3rd round (25 overall)I waited until their value was undeniable and then I pulled the trigger. That is how you draft to win IMO.
FantasyFootballXtreme
Footballguy
Lets get back to the draft (Leave McNabb and Gonzo out!):Lets hear some breakdowns on some of the other players taken, from just the first two rounds:Round 1 1. RB1 LaDainian Tomlinson SD/10 Footballguys.com2. RB2 Priest Holmes KC/5 FantasyFootballXtreme.com-Smitty3. RB3 Shaun Alexander Sea/8 Rotodoc.com4. RB9 Willis McGahee Buf/9 Huddlegeeks.com5. RB4 Edgerrin James Ind/8 FantasyFootballXtreme.com-Goldy6. QB1 Peyton Manning Ind/8 Askthecommish.com7. WR1 Randy Moss Oak/5 Fantasyfootballgoldenboy.com8. RB7 Clinton Portis Was/3 Fantasyfootballstarters.com9. RB6 Deuce McAllister NO/10 Junkyardjake.com10. RB8 Corey Dillon NE/7 Fantasyfootballadvantage.com11. QB3 Donovan McNabb Phi/6 Fantasyfootballsearch.com12. RB15 Jamal Lewis Bal/3 Rotoworld.com--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Round 2 13. RB14 Julius Jones Dal/9 Rotoworld.com14. TE1 Tony Gonzalez KC/5 Fantasyfootballsearch.com15. RB17 Ahman Green GB/6 Fantasyfootballadvantage.com16. QB2 Daunte Culpepper Min/5 Junkyardjake.com17. RB10 Rudi Johnson Cin/10 Fantasyfootballstarters.com18. RB16 Curtis Martin NYJ/8 Fantasyfootballgoldenboy.com19. RB11 Domanick Davis Hou/3 Askthecommish.com20. RB5 Tiki Barber NYG/5 FantasyFootballXtreme.com-Goldy21. WR2 Terrell Owens Phi/6 Huddlegeeks.com22. WR4 Marvin Harrison Ind/8 Rotodoc.com23. RB12 Kevin Jones Det/3 FantasyFootballXtreme.com-Smitty24. RB13 Brian Westbrook Phi/6 Footballguys.com
fantasyfootballadvantage
Footballguy
Even though I wouldn't have taken Vick 
FantasyFootballXtreme
Footballguy
Well said, Chris I really would like to hear breakdowns on the first two rounds, not involving Gonzo and McNabb. I just posted the first two rounds again 2 messages above.
I really would like to hear breakdowns on the first two rounds, not involving Gonzo and McNabb. I just posted the first two rounds again 2 messages above.fantasyfootballadvantage
Footballguy
I wouldn't have taken any of the QBs in the first round. As you can see from my draft I went RB/RB cause I beleive that is the best way to succeed in the league we are in. Other than the QBs, I think that Portis was a bit of a stretch at number 8. The Skins aren't going to improve much over last year, and when a back is on the sideline for most of the fourth quarter its tends to cut into his fantasy points. He has the talent to be a top 5 back, but I don't think it is going to happen while he is on Washington
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