Exploit and Avoid Week 3 (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

As I mentioned when we did this week 1 that time unfortunately does not allow me the luxury of 8-10 hours a week to disect each game and write up a summary of what I feel will happen. You need to know that QbR as I am using it stands for QB Ratings on each DB. Obviously the lower the number the worse the QBs do when they throw at them. i did not mention every player under the sun so feel free to expand and talk about players I overlooked or did not highlight. I will also be posting the games 1 post at a time because every time I try and paste the whole thing I get issues so we will just do 1 game per post.

Let's get right to it.

St Louis at Chicago (-7)



The Rams were playing gutsy with Detroit and then Washington last week they narrowly won the game but they are playing very hard under new coach Jeff Fisher. The problem for the Rams is they have no long ball vertical threat to really keep the defenses honest, they lack punch at TE, and now they are playing games with their starting RB who might be SJax or DRich depending on what newspaper you subscribe to.



The Bears are coming in on 10 days rest and an absolute butt whoopin by Green Bay. They should be focused and angry, usually a bad combo when facing the Bears.



I'll start with Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson. For future reference anytime you have a couple of guys going against the Bears at WR vs their DBs, this is not a good match up no matter what success any other receivers might have had. Folks will be chasing Amendola's points from a week ago and also he is the #1WR in PPR but I promise you will be making a huge mistake starting him with confidence this weekend. Can Amendola scrape up 10-12 points, maybe he can but asking him to put up 20-25 this weekend, ain't gonna happen. Tillman and Jennings for Chicago will match up well and blanket him most of the time. Even if Amendola is in the slot I expect Chicago to have a guy stuck on him all day. There is some room for a deep ball or two against the Bears but the Rams don't really have anyone to exploit that. Gibson has 2 TDs inside of his 6 receptions, that pace can't be kept up. I think the Rams will have a terrible time trying to throw the football on Chicago.



The Rams meanwhile are getting really strong play from Finnegan and also the Nickelback there Bradley Fletcher has been making himself known. Janoris Jenkins has had some issues but collectively these three have 3 interceptions so far and are making some big plays for the Rams. Cutler won't find it all that easy early on however the soft spot in the secondary will be deep with Safeties Quintin Mikell and Craig Dahl being vulnerable. That's why I think you will see Alshon Jeffries get loose a couple times on some of the deep routes. Brandon Marshall will fare better than he did against GB but I like the supporting receivers this week to exploit some of the holes in the deeper part of the Rams defense.



Michael Bush is a must start for all owners. The Rams gave up 175 yards last week to the Skins and I wouldn't put a lot of stock in holding Detroit to under 100 yards the week prior. Chicago will hit the Rams between the eyes and force them to put 7 and perhaps even 8 in the box to stop the run. Chicago's offense is much better once they establish the run. The Rams meanwhile will either start SJax or perhaps rookie Daryl Richardson who has looked sharp in limited touches. I don't buy the injury line but it could be a mix of attitude from Fisher and a mild injury.



Final Score: Chicago 27...St Louis 13

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Buffalo at Cleveland (+3)



The Bills are allowing 135 rush yds per game so on the surface you would think Trent Richardson should have a decent day. I think decent is a good word but the Bills should have an easy time with Brandon Weeden who has almost no weapons to throw to, certainly nothing like Dwayne Bowe who grabbed a chunk of points once Buffalo was up by 4 touchdowns last week.



Bombs away for Steve Johnson as Joe Haden is Suspended and the replacements are not nearly as good. The Browns have a nice run support Strong Safety in T.J.Ward but he can be had on pass coverage so look for Steve Johnson to get loose early and often. I also think Donald Jones will have a much better day this week than last week. Scott Chandler at TE should see some easy catches as well. C.J. Spiller and the running game may have a little trouble early on but once the Bills loosen up the defense with Johnson then Spiller should see some good action in the 2nd half as the Bills work the clock.



The Bills will have little trouble stopping the pass and they have a star in the making with Free Safety Jairus Byrd who I like a lot and has been shutting down the ball, plus Cleveland doesn’t really have the personnel to take advantage of anything deep. Massaquoi has suddenly appeared on the radar but I expect a fairly quiet day from him, perhaps Little will be the guy this week to grab 5 balls.



Final Score: Buffalo 24...Cleveland 17

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Tampa Bay at Dallas (-9)



Vegas seems to think the Bucs are going to fold under the pressure Sunday. What is everyone watching on TV? The Bus beat down the Panthers as the score was not indicative of how lopsided it was. They had a pretty big lead on the Giants and then the Giants flexed those Super Bowl muscles and got the SB hangover out of their system quickly.



We know Romo, Dez, Austin, and yes Ogletree will try and duplicate what the Giants did in shredding the Bucs for over 500 yard thru the air. I think Dallas will have some success but I’m not sure they blowout the Bucs. They have done so in recent past but the Bucs have something to retaliate with. Tampa Bay will run the ball as often as possible and test the middle of the Dallas defense which will be without Jay Ratliff and also Sensabaugh is doubtful to play this week at Safety. Doug Martin has been terrific so far and I think in Dallas when he looks at those stars there will be some extra juice he has for the ground and pound the Bucs like to unleash. Only problem will be if the Bucs fall behind. For Dallas to really thrttle the Bucs they are going to need to jump on them early.



Aquib Talib is an interesting player to watch. The guy seems to draw flags but he also has batted down 5 pases already this year. He allows a 123 QBR to opposing QBs which is pretty poor and he has allowed 80 YAC form receivers and a 21 ypc avg to boot. That said he is dangerous and can make plays so I look at him as a young DeAngelo Hall who had a propensity to get burnt but still make big plays. Talib needs a few interceptions before QBs respect him. Right now they attack him. The Bucs Safeties Barber and Barron have been better at run support than pass coverage. The Bucs must get pressure on Romo or things will unravel quickly.



DeMarco Murray will not have a lot of room to run but should have a double digit day with receptions in PPR leagues. I think Dallas will figure out it is best to try and pass the ball, hopefully Romo is not in a giving mood to the opposition. When you write all this out on paper it does look like perhaps because the Bucs have won a game and almost won last week despite the holes on defense that maybe they beat this spread but at the same time Vegas is begging you to take the points so be careful of the trap. Dallas has Chicago at home next week before their bye. The Bucs will face Washington at home and then they enter a bye week.



Final Score: Dallas 34...Tampa Bay 24

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-3)



The Jags have been getting run on as ADP had 2 TDs, Houston racked up over 200 yds rushing. The good news is Indy does not have the same type of ground game as those teams and I don’t see them able to exploit the Jags on the ground. And while the Jags have struggled to pass the ball they also have a good shot at correcting that against the likes of Vontae Davis who has given up a 158 QBR to the opposition. Of the 12 passes thrown at him, 11 have been completions and he also has allowed 2 TDs...maybe the Dolphins knew better when they traded him.



Many owners will be running to start Donald Brown this week, he should fare better than in weeks past but I don’t think Indy will run over Jax. The Jags also have a decent secondary that has been doing well and FS Dwight Lowery has looked good in pass coverage. The Jags have a guy by the name of Will middleton who has been doing a good job rotating from Nickelback to sometimes man on man coverage. Reggie Wayne will have an OK day but I don’t see him having a huge game. Austin Collie has been battling concussions it seems since he entered the league. He is supposed to be playing this weekend, how much he is ready to do is a mystery. Donnie Avery has been plugging along and could have another surprise day.



I would not blink in starting MJD who should have a field day running the football and 100/TD should be well within his grasp. I like Laurent Robinson this week and also the rookie Justin Blackmon should find it easier to get open this week.



Final Score: Jacksonville 20...Indianapolis 17

 

[Ministry of Pain]

New York Jets at Miami (+1)



Whether Revis plays or not, the Jets have 2 other strong DBs that can certainly match up well with what the Phins are rolling out on offense. Cromartie and Kyle Wilson are not on the same level at all with Revis but they would form a pretty strong tandem for almost any NFL team. The Jets really have 3 quality Corners which is a luxury in the NFL. I do not believe Brian Hartline will sniff anything close to what we saw a week ago. Davone Bess will have the PPR OK day with something like 5/60 on underneath routes but Miami does not have the weapons to scare the Jets.



This game is going to come down to the trenches so that’s my focus. Miami has been getting great returns from Jake Long and also Mike Pouncey has gotten a lot better than last season and is opening a lot of holes for Reggie Bush to fly through. His match up with Kendrick Ellis who is no slouch for the Jets, that match up is going to be vital for Miami as they must establish the run in order to win any game they play this season. The Jets gave up 195 week 1 but they were blowing the Bills out by 4 touchdowns before a lot of those yards started to accumulate. Last week they held the Steelers to under 100 yds rushing but again is Reggie Bush a better back than anything the Steelers have right now?



The Miami rush defense has been lights out for most of the way. They shut down DMC to almost nothing last week, that’s a good sign for them, bad for opposing RBs, especially ones that are going to feel the heat and humidity plus a lot of showers expected on Sunday so the passing games on both sides will have trouble. Footing could be a major problem as well. Miami’s Randy Starks is playing at a Pro Bowl level right now and that is saying something with Paul Soliai who has been a Pro Bowl player lined up next to him. Certainly Nick Mangold is going to get his fair shares of wins this week but the rest of the Jets OL has struggled and I expect Miami to force Sanchez to beat him, can he do it? Shonn Greene is going to have a rough day IMO and only fuel the Powell talk even more. Do you think Miami is overrated coming off the Texans and Raiders? Let’s hear it.



Sanchez will be working against Sean Smith(85 QbR) and Richard Marshall at the Corners. Both are solid but they can be beat. Another standout for Miami who might to be tested is Reshard Jones who has really come on and is providing a lot of help in the passing game. Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill will try to test Miami deep, the key is if guys like Cameron Wake can get to Sanchez or not. This game is really a coin flip and while Miami is being discounted by many, the team has responded well despite a 5 minute blip to Houston at the end of the 1st half week 1, outside of that they have been playing well.



Hard for me to pick this game as I root for the Phins. I hope they win and my brain says the Jets will be gassed in the 2nd half and Miami can run to win the game but that’s easier said then done. It’s also possible Miami looked good against a bad team last week and perhaps if they played Houston in week 4 or 5 it would not just be a 5 minute glitch but perhaps a total beat down. Somewhere in the middle is the truth and we are going to find out a lot more about these teams after week 3.



Final Score: New York 20...Miami 17 (OT)

 

[Ministry of Pain]

San Francisco at Minnesota(+6.5)



I would assume the thinking here is that SF has just beaten 2 potential playoff teams in their conference and they could let their guard down this week in Minnesota. And having to go on the road after those big wins, I can buy into that to an extent. At this time I would like to introduce the starting OLineman for the Niners because they deserve just as much credit as the potent defense. When Crabtree said the offense needs to step up, he should be more specific because the OL has been en fuego most of the time.



LT-Joe Staley and RT-Anthony Davis...Staley has 3 registered sacks to his credit but the rest of the OL has not allowed a single sack. He also rates near the top for run blocking which is something you don’t see a lot of Left Tackles do well but Staley loves to pound on these speedy DEs coming at him. Davis has provided excellent pass protection and together these two make for a nice pocket and allow Alex Smith to scan the field anytime he drops back.



LG Mike Iupati, RG Alex Boone, and C Jonathan Goodwin, all 3 of them have been excellent in pass protection and opening up holes for the backs. These guys should be garnering a lot of Pro Bowl votes this year.



On defense the Niner rarely line up in traditional formations. That might change this week but they roll 3 DBs out there a lot. Culliver, Brown, and Rogers get excellent help up top from Goldson and Whitner allowing them to take more chances. Percy Harvin should still see plenty of targets and the Vikings will figure out ways to get him the ball. I would not expect a big day from ADP or any other Vikings skill position players outside of maybe Percy Harvin scoring double digits in PPR.



For the Niners I would anticipate a good day from Gore but Hunter has the speed and on this track I expect him to have one of his better games. Crabtree is a solid start and it appears that Mario Manningham is really the WR2 on this team although trying to predict when he will score is going to be shooting in the dark...maybe this week. Randy Moss will surely want to be on the field against his former team but so far he has 1 TD and little else. The NFL changes week to week and perhaps this week the Niners do struggle on the ground and have to rely on Alex Smith and the passing game. Either way, I cannot pick the Vikings to win this game, maybe they cover. Perhaps the Vikings defense will get their hands on a pass from Smith and score to manufacture some points and keep the game closer than it should be.



Final Score: San Fran 24...Minnesota 20 but it ought to be SF 35 MN14 on paper.



What about Frank Gore? You don't need me to tell you to start him.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Kansas City at New Orleans (-9)



Lot of folks calling for a blowout, is that the case? I just am foggy on the rushing yds that New Orleans is allowing and nothing Drew Brees draws up is going to change their lack of discipline on defense and allowing teams to hold the ball. I know KC has been totally blown out in the 1st half or part of both games and those things have cost them any chance to compete as they are not built to throw every down. That said I think they get their sea legs back this week and start to look a little more like a professional football team.



Saints have allowed 153 and 219 on the ground the last 2 weeks and about 4-5 rushing TDs. If Jamaal Charles cannot go then I look for a steady diet of Peyton Hillis and also Shaun Draughn but my gut would think Hillis should have a nice week with at least 1 TD, maybe more in this contest. Charles was listed with a hammy but the coach said he had banged up his knee again. Who knows at this point but if Charles can play he should have a decent day on the fast surface in New Orleans. Because the game should be closer this week I anticipate that Dwayne Bowe won’t have as much garbage time stats to make it look like he is killing it every week.



For the Saints, I really believe their lack of coaching is leading to a lot of problems. Colston is nursing some foot injury so obviously it will be the Jimmy Graham and Darren "I don't do handoffs" Sproles show in the passing game. The one guy who could have a surprise week if the Saints could mount an early lead would be Pierre Thomas who I could see with 12-18 in PPR leagues. If KC can shorten the game up then New Orleans is going to be looking down the barrel of an 0-3 start. I’m not going to call for a KC win but I do feel they can make a game of it.



Final Score New Orleans 28...Kansas City 24





Detroit at Tennessee (+3.5)



The Lions have a much better defense than they are given credit for. They just have not had the same step in that offense as last season. The Titans are floundering and their defense has zero speed on it. You are looking for that blowout game, on paper this is out, only thing is how the Lions play on grass.



Kevin Smith and Mikel LeShoure stand to look good this weekend. The Titans will not be able to cover Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, or even Titus Young who has been disappointing owners the last couple weeks. Look at the DBs for Tennessee and it is easy to connect the dots this week. Jason McCourty has allowed 17.6 ypc and a 153 QbR on that side while Alterraun Verner to his credit has been a lot better with only a 33 QbR although I expect that to go up a bit on Sunday. It’s too early in the season to just assume that a player continues exactly on the path of week 1 and 2. The Titans saw a terrible WR corp last week and lose by 4 TDs, they are going to get rolled if they’re not careful this week. Michael Griffin at SS has been awful and is allowing a 158 QbR. Start your Lions.



The Titans offense is a disaster right now and they have their hands full with the Lions DL. I’m sure Locker will connect with someone during the game but trying to pin it to one guy will be a hard choice. Until either defenses respect Locker and play 6 in the box or Chris Johnson manages to run a couple long ones, nothing is going to gel on offense. Titans are one of the worst teams in the NFL bar none right now. They are a strong candidate right now for 3-4 wins this season. They have the worst blend of a slow defense, no OL, a young inexperienced QB, and a RB who can’t get loose.



Final Score: Detroit 40...Tennessee 17

 

[Drop]

I agree with the 24-17 BUF over CLE prediction, but what I will look for in that game is BUF to spread the field and catch some bad young CLE defenders on pick routes to sustain offensive drives.

I also feel that the Total (53) on the KC @ NO game is too high.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Cincinnati at Washington (-3)



Let’s start with the Bengals defense which just isn’t any good right now. They gave up 300 yds to Flacco and Weeden. They don’t seem to be run stopping juggernauts either, just very mediocre all the way around on defense. So I would assume that RGIII continues his assault on the NFL this week as long as he can find someone to catch the football.



Another strike against the Bengals right now would be their Interior OL and Jeff Faine has been one of the worst starting Centers this year. The run blocking just has not been there for them and BJGE suffers for it. The lack of running game of course leads to bad things for Andy Dalton as well. Certainly they should be able to get AJ Green into some open space against the Skins but the Bengals do not look good right now and I don’t think the game last week against Cleveland changes my opinion right now. Look for AJ to get loose on Safeties Madieu Williams who is allowing 16+ypc and a 158 QbR, DeJon Gomes has been a lot better on the opposite side but he has not seen a WR quite like Green yet. DeAngelo Hall is always capable of a strong performance but he also has gotten burned a lot over the years. He is only giving up 9.5 ypc and his counterpart Josh Wilson has allowed only 2 catches on 8 pass attempts his way.



For the Skins, they have gotten a strong performances thus far from their Center Will Montgomery who is playing far ahead of his usual and blowing holes open for Alfred Morris. They also have been decent in pass protection plus RGIII can help them look a lot better as well with his scrambling skills.



Santana Moss has been on the field a lot but has little production to this point, no reason I can see keeping him as eventually they will go with other guys. Hankerson is moving up the charts as well. Garcon has played 8 snaps to this point, clearly he was the guy with the connection to RG III, hopefully he gets back on the field for owners. Aldrick Robinson has been solid but he doesn’t have the pedigree of a Hankerson IMO who flashed his big skills last week. In the running game it appears the team is settled with Alfred Morris for now, expect another solid performance for him this week.



Final Score: Washington 27...Cincinnati 23 1st game at home for RGIII, he can’t disappoint the home crowd.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Philadelphia at Arizona (+3)



You would think Arizona because they are 2-0 is getting too much love with the spread but as you will see there is a lot of things the Cardinals have in their favor to possibly win this game on Sunday. Arizona’s defense is underrated IMO and the Philly defense has been very strong early on.



Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett have been terrorizing the OLines the past couple weeks. The Cardinals do not line up in a lot of traditional formations on defense, many times they don’t even have a DT/NT in the game. Dan Williams is good against the run when they need him on the field. Dockett has 8 QbH and Campbell has 2 sacks. This is a very aggressive 3-4 style defense they are playing. Patrick Peterson is yielding a 7 QbR which is unbelievable and probably unsustainable however the Eagles will be without Jeremy Maclin so Peterson can focus his attention on DeSean Jackson who is trying to play thru some injuries. The Eagles could be in trouble if they do not get some of the other guys going. The Cardinals also have Adrian Wilson at Safety who has a ZERO QbR which would mean he is perfect in pass protection. The Eagles are not going to have a lot of fun this week on offense.



Philly must get Shady McCoy going if they have any hope of winning this game. They must force Arizona to commit 7 in the box to stop him and Vick. AZ loves to play Nickel and Dime much of the game and I expect them to try it again but Philly has got to line up their strong OL and run right at the Cardinals. Kelce has been very good at Center but Danny Watkins needs to get better in a hurry. The Tackles on offense for Philly have been pretty good allowing no sacks but of course Michael Vick scrambling always helps. AZ is giving up about 100 yds a week on the ground, these days that is pretty good in the NFL because so many teams play the pass vs the run.



The Eagles have got a very strong unit on the interior of their DL where they can rotate Landri, Fletcher Cox, Cullen Jenkins, and Cedric Thornton at DT throughout the game, what a luxury. Jason babin and Trent Cole provide speed around the edges and you mix that with a trio of DBs they use at Corner including DRC and brandon Boykin who both are playing very well. Out of 21 pass attempts, those 2 have only allowed 5 receptions, that has to be close to the best. Asamoghu has had the biggest challenges so far but he still is a very dangerous DB to try and test the waters with. I don’t see much for Kolb and the receivers like Fitzgerald, that said Fitz is going to uncork one of these weeks. This is a very tough matchup for him. I think we have a defensive struggle on ou hands, long flight for Philly too into the desert.



Final Score: Philadelphia 17...Arizona 14



Atlanta at San Diego (-3)



The Falcons on defense have been very strong in the 1st half of both games this year, 2nd half they let up some once they have a big lead but that is partly expected. They got up on Denver 20-0 and KC 27-3 the week before, just seems they are playing from way ahead in these games. Will that continue against San Diego?



When you look at the Bolts you see Jammer and Cason at the corners and they have been solid thus far. Only a 10 ypc avg from jammer and 11 form Cason. 14/25 completions vs attempts. It’s solid but have they seen anything like White and Jones lining up across from them? I know we have an East Coast going to the West Coast but on paper I love the Falcons here. Eric Weddle has a 41 QbR and Atari Bigby can hold his own but again when you start with the two studs the Falcons have and then add an aging yet still youthful Tony Gonzalez they have to account for and you can start reading the tea leaves here. I think Atlanta has an edge most weeks in the passing game and San Diego is not exception IMO.



San Diego has been very good in rush defense shutting down DMC and Chris Johnson, two of the most dangerous RBs in the NFL. I don’t expect Michael Turner to do much and without looking it up I don’t think he usually fares very well when he travels outside on the road and long distance no less. It is his former team and he might have some extra juice for that but I would not be expecting miracles here.



Atlanta counters on defense with Asante Samuel and Dunta Robinson who should have little issues with the ho hum WRs in SD. After Miami they might have the two worst starting wideouts in the AFC, think about it. Williams Moore(25 QbR) has been excellent in pass coverage and also pretty strong in run support. His counterpart Thomas DeCoud(65 QbR) is no slouch either. I think the Falcons have the edge on defense vs San Diego’s pass attack despite getting Antonio Gates back this week.



Will Ryan Mathews play? Can’t see starting him even if he can suit up. I would want to wait and see what he can do first before I would wheel him out there blindly. the rest of San Diego’s running game is not very good and hardly worth a mention honestly. Only thing that can stop Atlanta IMO is the travel and their inability to go for the throat when they have teams on the ropes...27-7 is not good enough starting the 4th Q to just run Turner into the belly of the defense 3 times and then punt. They lack a killer instinct, not sure why that is. This will be a defensive struggle more than most want to believe.



Final Score: Atlanta 21...San Diego 17

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Houston at Denver (+1)



How good are the Texans? We know they can beat the teams in the state of Florida but what about some teams with decent QB play? They certainly have been tough thru the air where Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson have given up a total of 23 yds after the catch or YAC as it usually referred to. Manning and Quin at Safety have been solid. Can they hold up against Peyton Manning? Was what we saw in the 1st half against the Falcons a sign of things to come for Peyton?



Let’s talk about Willis McGahee who has looked pretty good and is running well behind JD Walton who has vastly improved and Zane Beadles. These two are getting are forcing solid blocks and giving McGahee nice holes in the middle to slide right thru. Also the play of Orlando Franklin and Clady at Tackle allowing Peyton Manning time to throw in the pocket cannot be overlooked either. The Broncos OL has kept up their end of the bargain.



Houston has their own standouts on the OL including Chris Myers who has really anchored the running game inside and allowed for Foster and Tate to flourish. The Broncos defense has been very good and especially rush defense where they are under 75 yds rushing both contests. They will be tested. I believe Denver will hold serve at home, if this were in Houston I might be inclined to pick the Texans but Denver is going to win on Sunday. Thomas and Decker will not have easy days but there will be enough openings for Manning to find what he needs and march them to another win.



Final Score: Denver 24...Houston 17



Pittsburgh at Oakland (+3.5)



I really don’t care about this game so I’ll be quick. Polamalu and Harrison are OUT for Pitt and they have enough to win this game but the far travel and just their overall underwhelming performances despite the win last week leaves me wondering why they can’t go on the road and drop this football game. What is intimidating about them? Their 2 best defensive players are out and they don’t have much going for them along the OLine. Keenan Lewis (109 QbR) and Ike Taylor (129QbR) are not going to intimidate Carson Palmer. I like Oakland in a mild upset this week and DMC is ready to get loose.



Oakland’s OL has been pretty bad but I feel they can shake off some of this, the team is not this bad and a trip cross country to Miami in the September heat will kill most teams, I like the Raiders to rebound. Keep an eye on Brandon Myers, I wrote a thread on him earlier in the week. I expect him to have another solid day in PPR as Pittsburgh is a little short handed in the secondary so Myers will be largely overlooked this week again.



Final Score: Oakland 20...Pittsburgh 17

 

[Ministry of Pain]

New England at Baltimore (-1.5)



The Patriots OL has been very good despite battling injuries. They can handle the front seven from Baltimore. The Pats have been out gaining the opposition by 120 yds a game and if Gostkowski does what he is supposed to last week they would be undefeated and IMO road favorites this week. The Arizona loss is skewing the visual here IMO. That said they have some real injury concerns with Hernandez OUT and Lloyd a game time decision which doesn’t sound good. They went out and signed Deion Branch back to the team and also signed KW II.



The Ravens defense has not been lights out despite some strong individual efforts but so far they are allowing almost 400 yds a game and back to back weeks of almost 130 yds rushing, this is not the Ravens we have grown accustomed to. Despite that they have a ferocious secondary with LaDarius Webb, Ed Reed, and Bernard Pollard.



Can Baltimore run the ball on New England? They are giving up about 60-65 yds a game thus far, shut down Chris Johnson completely and they had a little bit of trouble with Arizona but not much. Flacco is going ot have to go up top and attack the Pats Safeties. Devin McCourty is a shut down type with a 52 QbR, only 4 completions on 11 pass attempts for the opposition. Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith will not find it easy to get open but I do think Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson can carve up the Pats underneath and attack the seams. If they do this then Baltimore has a shot but if not I see the Pats winning this game rather easily and leave the Ravens searching for answers.



I always say start your Pats, this week is no different.



Final Score: New England 27...Baltimore 14

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Green Bay at Seattle (+3)



I am really growing a strong dislike towards the Seadogs. Not because of the team so much but they have a pretty nasty fan base that has gotten on a lot of peoples nerves in here real quick. I understand blind homers drinking beer and watching the games but some of this lately borders on outright fan mania and has very little substance to it. I don’t really like Green Bay much either but I will be firmly rooting for them on MNF.



Let me roll thru Green Bay first. They have allowed 186 rushing week 1 to SF and 94 last week to Chicago. They can be run on and if they are not careful they could get run on again by Seattle which is very persistent in sticking with the running game, credit Pete Carroll for some of that. The Packers OL has been pretty mediocre in rushing but solid in pass protection. Cedric Benson will have a quiet day so the game really rests in Aaron Rodgers hands and his ability to make some big plays. Jordy Nelson has got to have a big day and make a couple of those circus type catches and runs he did forma year ago. They are missing the “IT” factor right now.



The Seahawks rush defense is about the best in the league right now. Maybe you were not impressed with AZ week 1 but they shut down Dallas for most of the game last week. And despite a decent run offense J.R. Sweezy is killing them inside in the running game. I would like to see Russell Wilson have to actually win a game outright for them as so far he looks more game manager than anything else. He hasn’t topped 150 yds passing yet. That kind of production will only get you so far. I don’t want to hear about the flight to Seattle...Green Bay has had 10 days to prepare for this game so they should be well rested. Dallas also had 10 days last week and that didn’t mean squat...Packers are a better team though.



Final Score: Green Bay 24...Seattle 20

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Good luck everyone and pour me another honey.

 

[kd1]

i assume lynch is a green light?

and am i crazy for rolling with russ wilson over palmer? i'm feeling a monday night coming out party. you're making me re-think things though, with showing me the light that pitt d isn't necessarily to be feared.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Good luck everyone and pour me another honey.

Really enjoyed reading this. Thanks for sharing.The one game I disagree on is Denver / Houston. I think Houston has the best run-blocking line in the NFL, and I think Foster is going to destroy Denver.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Again, awesome. We agree on some stuff, disagree on others, but I always appreciate a different perspective.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Good luck everyone and pour me another honey.

Really enjoyed reading this. Thanks for sharing.The one game I disagree on is Denver / Houston. I think Houston has the best run-blocking line in the NFL, and I think Foster is going to destroy Denver.

You are on record sir

 

[jdoggydogg]

Good luck everyone and pour me another honey.

Really enjoyed reading this. Thanks for sharing.The one game I disagree on is Denver / Houston. I think Houston has the best run-blocking line in the NFL, and I think Foster is going to destroy Denver.

You are on record sir

 

[FF Newbie]

Any thoughts on Lance Moore this week? I didn't see him in your writeup on the Saints-Chiefs game.

 

[fire_tune]

Thank you so much. Really need the green light for DMC.

 

[bbuster]

Thanks for taking the time to do this MOP. It is appreciated. Doesn't even matter if you are right or wrong on some of these, it's nice to hear some reasoning behind your opinions. It's something that has been missing in the Shark Pool lately. Good work

 

[Arizona Ron]

Good stuff MOP

 

[BigTex]

Once again, great job!!

 

[duaneok66]

Outstanding - probably the best one ever.

 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

Any thoughts on Lance Moore this week? I didn't see him in your writeup on the Saints-Chiefs game.

I have both Colston and Moore. If Colston is OUT, I'm plugging Lance Moore into the lineup and feeling good about it. Part of me wants to put him in either way, but can't do it if Colston plays.

 

[higgins]

time unfortunately does not allow me the luxury of 8-10 hours a week to disect each game and write up a summary of what I feel will happen.

MoP, I appreciate your effort and I do enjoy reading this each week. Keep on keepin' on.

 

[Super King]

Good stuff. Any insight on the other CIN WR's (Hawkins, Binns, Tate)

 

[foxco]

Great read, thanks for this.

 

[rickyg]

Thoughts on jason Witten? He'll be matched up on that rookie safety in tb and i think he wins that matchup. Also i think romo wants to help him get his game back in track after all those drops last week. Didn't see him mentioned.

Thanks for the post Mop good stuff

 

[Ministry of Pain]

i assume lynch is a green light?

and am i crazy for rolling with russ wilson over palmer? i'm feeling a monday night coming out party. you're making me re-think things though, with showing me the light that pitt d isn't necessarily to be feared.

Most of the time yes

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Any thoughts on Lance Moore this week? I didn't see him in your writeup on the Saints-Chiefs game.

The sizzle is usually better than the steak

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Thank you so much. Really need the green light for DMC.

sarcasm right? If not np, if so I like it as well.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Again, awesome. We agree on some stuff, disagree on others, but I always appreciate a different perspective.

Good stuff MOP

Once again, great job!!

Outstanding - probably the best one ever.

Thanks, appreciate the kind words. I had nothing to do on Saturday and felt like writing.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Good stuff. Any insight on the other CIN WR's (Hawkins, Binns, Tate)

Not really although I know a lot of folks are looking there for possible points.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

time unfortunately does not allow me the luxury of 8-10 hours a week to disect each game and write up a summary of what I feel will happen.

MoP, I appreciate your effort and I do enjoy reading this each week. Keep on keepin' on.

 

[Yenrub]

Thanks MOP Great work!

I appreciate the time you take to do this

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Thoughts on jason Witten? He'll be matched up on that rookie safety in tb and i think he wins that matchup. Also i think romo wants to help him get his game back in track after all those drops last week. Didn't see him mentioned. Thanks for the post Mop good stuff

I always sit guys after injuries until they prove they are back. You must have some over TE options. I see Romo bombing it to the WRs today. A lo of people are calling for a 38-7 type drubbing today, if that happens Witten will not play as much. Romo wanting to help Witten, these are professionals and they need to really do that, Witten has enough mojo when healthy, not sure he is all the way back yet.

 

[Team Smokin']

I know it's called Patience, yet I have a difficult time seeing R DMC a green light? Where I can see M Bush and D Martin more viable starts this week. Perhaps one more week for McFadden? Horrible matchup against Blitzburgh, but sometimes that's when a player breaks out - it's called Reverse Psychology What does Sharkland think of DMC? Second thoughts MoP?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Thanks MOP Great work!

I appreciate the time you take to do this

Gracias

I know it's called Patience, yet I have a difficult time seeing R DMC a green light? Where I can see M Bush and D Martin more viable starts this week. Perhaps one more week for McFadden? Horrible matchup against Blitzburgh, but sometimes that's when a player breaks out - it's called Reverse Psychology What does Sharkland think of DMC? Second thoughts MoP?

Pittsburgh is flying cross country, teams tend to lay an egg going that far West. Oakland is better than what they have shown, gotta get DMC rolling so why not this week? He was a 1st round pick in every league, people bail on him that quick?

No second thoughts, I know what I wrote. My 1st question is always what are the other options?

 

[Team Smokin']

Thanks MOP Great work!

I appreciate the time you take to do this

Gracias

I know it's called Patience, yet I have a difficult time seeing R DMC a green light? Where I can see M Bush and D Martin more viable starts this week. Perhaps one more week for McFadden? Horrible matchup against Blitzburgh, but sometimes that's when a player breaks out - it's called Reverse Psychology What does Sharkland think of DMC? Second thoughts MoP?

Pittsburgh is flying cross country, teams tend to lay an egg going that far West. Oakland is better than what they have shown, gotta get DMC rolling so why not this week? He was a 1st round pick in every league, people bail on him that quick?

No second thoughts, I know what I wrote. My 1st question is always what are the other options?

As always I value and honor your perspective, opinion, work, and enjoy your posts! Thanks

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Torrey Smith's brother died in a motorcycle accident last night, that definitely adds something to the mix. Either Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and others will inspire him to want to go out and unleash hell for 3 hours before he takes off to make funeral arrangements or he will just not dress and that obviously will limit the Ravens.

I don't own him in many leagues but I hope he plays because of the impact on the other 50+ and also it would make an interesting storyline. I also respect if he says no way today.

 

[Team Smokin']

Torrey Smith's brother died in a motorcycle accident last night, that definitely adds something to the mix. Either Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and others will inspire him to want to go out and unleash hell for 3 hours before he takes off to make funeral arrangements or he will just not dress and that obviously will limit the Ravens. I don't own him in many leagues but I hope he plays because of the impact on the other 50+ and also it would make an interesting storyline. I also respect if he says no way today.

I can't believe my little brother is gone...be thankful for your loved ones and tell them you love them...this is the hardest thing ever@TorreySmithWR Torrey Smith RetweetTorreySmithWR

 

[flooredyas]

Nice work MOP. Always refreshing to hear some analysis along with a green/red light scenario. Nice read on a Sunday morning. Agree w/DMC, now he begins.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Torrey Smith's brother died in a motorcycle accident last night, that definitely adds something to the mix. Either Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and others will inspire him to want to go out and unleash hell for 3 hours before he takes off to make funeral arrangements or he will just not dress and that obviously will limit the Ravens. I don't own him in many leagues but I hope he plays because of the impact on the other 50+ and also it would make an interesting storyline. I also respect if he says no way today.

I can't believe my little brother is gone...be thankful for your loved ones and tell them you love them...this is the hardest thing ever@TorreySmithWR Torrey Smith RetweetTorreySmithWR

TY for posting that up

 

[JaxBill]

Nice work MoP, I'd like to add another to exploit:

Coby Fleener

Jags get back derek cox at corner and Luck might need to check down some more. Plus the Jags LBs have been terrible at stopping the TE especially with Darryl Smith still out.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Nice work MoP, I'd like to add another to exploit:Coby FleenerJags get back derek cox at corner and Luck might need to check down some more. Plus the Jags LBs have been terrible at stopping the TE especially with Darryl Smith still out.

Awesome

 

[FF Ninja]

Doug Martin has been terrific so far

Sorry to pick nits, but really? 3.7 ypc and 5.8 ypr = below average

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Doug Martin has been terrific so far

Sorry to pick nits, but really? 3.7 ypc and 5.8 ypr = below average

Name another rookie with double digits two weeks in a row? Maybe I overshot with terrific but I have been happy and the Bucs are giving him 20+ touches a game, what do you want?

 

[FF Ninja]

Doug Martin has been terrific so far

Sorry to pick nits, but really? 3.7 ypc and 5.8 ypr = below average

Name another rookie with double digits two weeks in a row? Maybe I overshot with terrific but I have been happy and the Bucs are giving him 20+ touches a game, what do you want?

Ok, I'll agree from a fantasy perspective his workload has been terrific while the player has been just above crap. If he keeps that up, Blount will be back in the lineup eventually. I see over on the Bucs board they're already getting a little upset at his lack of use, citing 5 ypc > 3 ypc.