Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
New Orleans at Atlanta (+3) (51.5)
We have a couple automatics at QB with Brees and Ryan. I can’t come up with a compelling reason why you would even think twice unless somehow you own both. I do believe that New Orleans has upgraded their defense so it won’t shock me if either White or Jones at least is slowed down a little bit. Colston should be an auto start as well, many are expecting big things from him this year.
There are some risky plays but at the same time you want to take a dip or trip with a few of these. Both Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram should be strong considerations fro flex spots. We have to believe what we saw and heard in the preseason at this point. Ingram train is going to start this weekend. I have watched Pierre Thomas for many years and while he offers some flex points, he has never been a true stud so the door is open for Ingram to grab a sizeable portion of this offense. But both are going to be rotated on and off the field throughout the game, that’s a trademark of this offense is keeping their backs fresh.
Brandin Cooks will be on some short lists but I would like to see a game or two first before I roll him out there as a starter, however with Kenny Stills ruled out you have a chance for him to hit the box score in week 1. Need time to see the target distribution and Colston, Graham, and at least 2 backs are going to be fed first. And for Atlanta, I would pass on anyone not named White, Jones, or SJax until we see the game plan. Freeman still has value but I saw where he was running 4th on the depth chart. The TE position will not be utilized the same way with TG moving on the studio/booth. It makes sense that Atlanta wants better protection so they can get the ball downfield with Jones and White.
Final Score: New Orleans 31…Atlanta 27
Cincinnati at Baltimore (-1.5) (42.5)
I find it hard to not like Cincinnati in this game. Baltimore looks a little dull and will be missing Ray Rice for the first couple weeks. I’m not sold that Steve Smith has all that much left in the tank or that he seriously can help this passing game. Time will tell but I saw him in person last year and he looked old. I hope you have better options than Flacco because the Bengals defense should be ready to roll. I think Cincinnati will want to announce their intentions in 2014 and anything short of a deep playoff run is going to be disappointing for them. They have a strong collection of talent now on offense and defense, time for Coach Lewis to start a long playoff run.
I don’t see Pierce as a strong play this week. Other than starting because Rice is out, don’t trust that he is automatic for 15, that would seem like high prediction to me. Maybe he can punch one in form short range. Torrey Smith should perform as a solid WR3 option. It should be noted however that outside of a 6/165/TD performance back in 2011, many of his Cinci games have been pretty mediocre. Perhaps Pitta and Smith can help deflect some of the coverage, but that’s a good reason to sit some of these guys in week 1 and watch the game. I don’t see this as super high scoring.
For Cinci, I would pass on Hill this week. Bernard, AJ, and yes I might start Andy Dalton if you have him as part of a 1-2 combo. I see Cinci working the short passing game underneath before going up top to stretch the Ravens with Green. These are not the small kids on the block anymore, they have attitude and they are not intimidated by the Ravens anymore. I would leave Sanu and the TE spot for Cinci be it Graham/Eifert alone for the moment.
Final Score: Cincinnati 24…Baltimore 17
Buffalo at Chicago (-7) (47.5)
The Bills have looked terrible and on the surface this looks like a blowout. The Bears should have their way thru the air in this game which means by the late 3rd you will be watching a lot of Forte hand offs. All the Bears should be starting for you, only exception might be Martellus Bennett who had an up n down preseason including being suspended by the coach, if I had other options I would look elsewhere for this week.
I want to go on record and just say that I don’t see Spiller as a factor this season and I’m not sure I see him returning kicks as a positive. That said at some point this team has to pass the ball be it Orton or Manuel. Both will need a safety valve so Spiller could still be valuable in the passing game. Fred Jackson is now 32 but he still has one of the best noses for finding 3 or 4 yards when there was less than 1 to begin with, guy moves the ball and is a treat to watch. All that respect and the fact remains he is 32 so eventually one way or the other I see Bryce Brown getting touches. If you can stash him for later on in the season I would do so.
Not sure how you can confidently start Sammy Watkins or any other WR for Buffalo but if I had to guess I might think Mike Williams ends up with the most impact this week. Just a hunch but he is the most polished of any WR they have plus his resume includes some decent stats. I’m not implying you start him but more trying to drive the point home how awful the passing game is in Buffalo at the moment.
There was a report surfacing about the GM and HC in Buffalo screaming at each other and the HC saying “fire me now” so that’s not good.
Final Score: Chicago 37…Buffalo 6
Washington at Houston (-3) (44.5)
Let’s focus on the must starts before we entertain unicorns I mean longshots at some of the other spots. Arian Foster has been billed as getting the lion’s share of the touches this week. Sounds reasonable, as I am not a big fan of much behind him. I hope they don’t wear him out. I do not see any reason Foster can’t have something along the lines of 80-100yds/TD in this one. I also would go ahead and start Andre Johnson. Odds are you have nothing better on your bench and no matter who they start at QB it stands to reason they will target Johnson a bunch. I would not start Hopkins until we see that this offense can support 2 WRs on a weekly basis.
Alfred Morris is a must start for owners. I am interested to see what Roy Helu’s role is going to be on this team. Some have pimped a Bernard role for him, eager to see how this plays out. In honestly can’t fathom that much production for him but then again this is a new coach so I don’t want to make proclamations when in fact no one truly knows, not yet but we’re gonna find out soon.
Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed, can they all be expected to perform at a high level? The fact is Houston has a strong DLine and the Skins OL is probably somewhere in the middle at best. I expect RG3 to be under a lot of pressure. Have you seen Clowney in the preseason? He looks like he might hurt somebody. My gut says that one of the 2 WRs is going to have a below avg day. This is another interesting situation to watch this weekend.
Final Score: Houston 21…Washington 20
Tennessee at Kansas City (-3) (43.5)
I would pass on the Titans backfield until we have a chance to see what Bishop Sankey can handle. Someone will plunge in a TD, likely Greene but he’s no RB1 in this league. This looks like a lower scoring game on the board IMO.
For KC, I can’t see a WR racking much more than 50-60 yards this week. I would expect a huge dose of Charles who might be the gap in the passing game. Looks like Fasano is still TE1 on the depth chart but that’ a joke. I see Kelce having a surprise week in a game where at some point the Chiefs will need some vertical punch and that might be the door for Kelce to step into.
Lot of debate with Hunter vs Wright. As long as Wright is avg 6-7 catches a game there is no reason to have a debate. I can see Hunter getting more targets this season but Wright is a reliable set of hands.
Finals Score: Kansas City 20…Tennessee 14
New England at Miami (+4) (46.5)
Let’s focus on the Miami secondary because that plus the outside pass rush of Vernon and Wake is going to put a lot of pressure on an aging veteran QB who already likes the short passing game too much. You have Grimes on one side and then Finnegan on the other. Finnegan has been tearing up camp the same way Grimes did last year and we saw how that turned out. Dobson and any other WR lining up wide or outside is going to have problems. Brady being the smart guy he is will work the underneath stuff so Edelman, Amendola, Gronk, Vereen, those guys are the ones to grab this week. Edelman and Vereen will likely rack the most receptions this week. Ridley is not terrible option at RB either this week.
Mike Wallace or perhaps Hartline are going to be off the map with Revis taking over. I see Charles Clay and some of the secondary WRs which Miami has plenty of now, taking the lead this week. Knowshon Moreno should see a lot of action, he’s an option in deeper leagues or multiple flex rosters. I will be eager to see the development of Jarvis Landry throughout the season. I like him a lot and eventually Wallace will be moved on and Landry will be a starter in the league. He had a sensational camp.
Miami has a lot more talent than they have had in previous seasons despite a patchwork OL which will be the Achilles heal throughout the season. Hopefully they can keep Tannehill upright from the 58 sacks he endured last season. The game is scheduled to tip off at 1:00 and Miami has not hosted a Week 1 1:00 football game with a city from the North in some time. New England will feel like death warmed over by the end of the 3rd Q. If Miami can keep it close they have a chance to pull off the miracle week 1.
Final Score: Miami 20…New England 17
Oakland at NY Jets (-5.5) (40.5)
As happy as I am that Carr will be starting for Oakland, starting on the road in New York is going to be a tall task for the rookie. I don’t see Oakland doing a lot and I don’t find any compelling reasons to start any of them. I feel MJD is going to have merit during the season but it might be tough to scratch out 12 points this week. James Jones maybe in a pinch but I would let most of them sit this week and watch the game to start drawing better conclusions.
I’m not super high on much the Jets roll out in the passing game but I understand owners starting Decker. Chris Johnson seems like the prize this week and perhaps Ivory will see enough action to warrant a flex spot. Ivory IMO will see about 40% of the load with CJ garnering the other 60. I also believe Johnson will appear in the passing game weekly so you add that up and CJ is a nice sleeper week 1, perfect flex option if you need to go that route, 80-100 total yards, 50/50 on the TD but count on a few receptions in PPR leagues should move him comfortably into a strong RB2 area. It would not shock me if Geno Smith cracks the top15 this week. He could be in line for multiple TD pass/rush and maybe 200-250 yards of offense combined.
Final Score: NY Jets 24…Oakland 10
Jacksonville at Philadelphia (-10.5) (52)
I find in these inter-conference games where one team is a big favorite that many times the game is much closer than it should be. I think these two teams met in Jacksonville when Vick was starting. I would like Jax a lot better if Bortles was gonna be the QB. As it is they have no punch at RB, Chad Henne is a joke, their WRs outside of Cecil Shorts(OUT) have very little experience, there’s not much to like heading into Philly. It’s a waiting game until Bortles takes the controls.
As far as Philly is concerned, I think you have to start Zac Ertz. No guy has been hyped as much in the preseason as this guy. It seems like everyone feels he is a shoe in to excel in this offense. Maclin on the outside does nothing for me. Cooper is OK but has his limitations and Mathews is a rookie so it will take time. I see them leaning on McCoy and the running game while working the quick short passing game. Where is the vertical threat here now? Teams will catch on at some point. But in week 1 it shouldn’t matter vs Jax.
Final Score: Philadelphia 30…Jacksonville 17
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-7) (41.5)
I’ll deal with the Browns assuming there is no Josh Gordon. Certainly the Steeler shave the advantage but these Steelers are not as intimidating as they have been in the past. Kind of like the Ravens as both are in divisional games week 1. By now you probably have heard what Merril Hoge had to say about Johnny Manziel and some of it might be true but the kid makes plays. I can’t explain it and perhaps a few games will show how right Hoge is but on the surface Manziel offer some excitement for the Browns.
Seems like Ben Tate is going to be slated for 300+ touches. Can he handle 300+ touches is my first question but it seems to reason they will lean heavily on him in the beginning of the season. Will he post 20/40 or will it look more like 20/90, somewhere in the middle is about right. A few receptions maybe and a 25% chance of a TD makes him a decent play. You likely drafted him in the 5th but unless you have a lot better options then you could do worse than 15-20 touches.
Jordan Cameron seems like the only must play for the Brown in the passing game. Miles Austin and his role is something to watch. They have little at WR, if Gordon is gone for the season then you have to think he will catch 50-60 balls by accident. I wouldn’t start him this week but keep an eye on his targets. Not sure Cleveland can support a lot of receivers right now outside of Cameron.
Big Ben is a solid option this week and look for both Brown and Markus Wheaton to make some noise this week. Heath Miller is certainly an option at TE if you are hurting. And look for Bell to see a lot of work especially once the Stealers build a lead. If Big Ben and the passing game plus a solid RB is not good enough to decimate a punchless Cleveland team then it’s going to be a long season for Pittsburgh. But the reality is I see them thrashing the Browns and start flashing a more potent offense.
Finals Score: Pittsburgh 35…Cleveland 10
Minnesota at St Louis (-3.5) (43)
Nothing to love about either passing game so the goods comes down quickly to ADP and whatever the blend is over on the Rams’ side of the ball. We can discuss CDP and Greg Jennings plus Kyle Rudolph. If you have a strong opinion on them then go for it but I see a pretty tough Rams defense and I’m not ager to run any of those guys out there this week. Is it Cassel and for how long? Outside of ADP I would try to pass on the rest for now. Besides, the Rams have an outstanding DL and I would expect a good pass rush on Cassel. Long balls down the field will be hard to come by for the Vikes.
The Rams will roll with Shaun Hill. The guy is a decent back up QB but not really the guy you want every week out there. Looks like Britt, Austin, and Quick will start. Kenny Britt has some sleeper signals on him. He can work the alleys along the sidelines, Hill likes those passes and is a down the field type passer. His short passing game is something to be desired so I would not be excited about much in that area like Austin. Stacy will get the lion’ share but I see Benny Cunningham also snaring some touches. Stacy has a good chance to have a nice week with something along 100/TD. I would definitely get him in your line up if you own him. He won’t be great every week so take advantage while you can.
Final Score: St Louis 20…Minnesota 17
San Francisco vs Dallas (+4) (51.5)
You absolutely love the Niners this week against arguably the worst defense in the NFL. Gore and Hyde will see time this week. Gore can’t do it all and he won’t have to. Crabtree should be wheeled out of the garage and ready to roll. Don’t be surprised if Vernon Davis makes owners sorry they passed on him for the likes of Dennis Pitta this week. Anquan Boldin because of his excellent run blocking will see plenty of snaps but I also have been impressed with Stevie Johnson and I think he will see his fair share of snaps. The Niners also have Lloyd floating around in their top 4 WR stable so CK is going to have a lot of weapons to throw the ball to.
All signs point to Kaepernick having a big game and I’m not going to say otherwise but I will say that is he has a pedestrian game, owners better start making 2nd plans quickly. I also do not think if he makes a big splash this weekend that he is automatically back to big upside. The Niners only throw about 25 passes a game, that’s pretty low.
Dez, Murray, and Jason Witten should all be starts this weekend. The Niners are down a couple players on defense so finding a pass rush against a strong OL is going to be tough. I also think Romo will have a decent day. No reason not to start Dallas players every week. They will need to score 30 most weeks to stay competitive so take full advantage of it and know that garbage points count the same as points earlier in the game so enjoy. Terrence Williams is a guy I would take a look at but in week 1 you should have better options. Dez is not intimidated but Williams is still only in hi 2nd year so be glad to own him for other match ups like the 6 divisional games they have but I would let him sit this week.
Final Score: San Fran 41…Dallas 31
Carolina at Tampa Bay (-3) (38)
This should be one of the slobberknockers on the docket for the day. Big question is whether Cam Newton is going to be able to play, looks like he should be a go but have some other plans because even if he starts this is a tough match up for them. I also am not a big fan of any Carolina WRs early on. Greg Olsen should be solid but the rest is a mess.
The running game has issues because DeAngelo looked over the hill or at least looks like he lost a step. Maybe Stewart can finally stay healthy but we’ve been saying that since he entered the league. I have a feeling Carolina is going to be a major disappointment this week.
Doug Martin should see plenty of touches. Early on he will find yards hard to come by so I hope the Bucs stay patient into the 2nd half because eventually they will wear them down. Play action should yield big plays to Vincent Jackson and eventually that will allow for more space. It is going to be hard to stack the box with two 6 foot 5 WRs who bounce off defenders after they catch the ball.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 17…Carolina 13
Indianapolis at Denver (-7.5) (55.5)
You have to assume the Colts will fall behind so at some point all of the receivers get a boost. I like the Denver defense and they will make it hard for the Colts even once garbage time rolls around. TY Hilton might have issues getting loose on the long ball but Wayne and Nicks should provide targets underneath along with the duo TEs. Trent Richardson is a pass for me. The OL cannot open holes and he needs room because he cannot create his own in this offense.
Emmanuel Sanders should be a go for most owners this week. We know the usual suspects for Denver but with Welker out, I would assume an increase for Sanders. I have no problem wheeling him out as a WR3 or flex with big upside this week. Top15 is not out of the question. Look for Montee Ball to see plenty of work with a nice lead at some point in the 2nd half.
Final Score: Denver 34…Indianapolis 17
NY Giants at Detroit (-6.5) (47)
The Lions enter this game looking like the team with a little momentum. They have Megtron, they have Reggie Bush and Joique Bell to rotate in the backfield on almost every other play, they signed free agent Golden Tate who is going to make the WR2 role on this team relevant, and they have a nice combo at TE including Ebron the rookie.
The Giants counter with a terrible preseason that looked almost as bad if not worst then what they had last year. Hopefully they can start putting drives together in the game on Monday Night. Right now it looks like Victor Cruz and Rashad Jennings should be about the most you dip into this offense for now. Some folks are high on Reuben Randle but I wouldn’t be in a hurry to run him out there.
Final Score: Detroit 24…NY Giants 17
San Diego at Arizona (-3) (46)
This is a potential strong play this week. What I am referencing is that Ellington is not playing Monday Night. The doctors are saying 2-4 weeks, Arians is hollering game time decision so I’ll follow the doctors lead here. Don’t wait until he is announced as out and the line changes or this line moves by Monday Night, grab the Chargers right now.
I expect Carson Palmer to throw for a lot of yards so I definitely like Fitz and Floyd this week. If you are a Cam Newton owner and in a league where there are potentially 10-15 QBs floating on the waiver wire and Palmer is one of them, I would grab them now and plan on playing him this week.
Rivers will be just fine and maybe Allen will have issues with Peterson but somebody is going to emerge in this game. Maybe Gates has a big one but the passing game will help with the rushing game and I expect a solid performace from Ryan Mathews week 1. Danny Woodhead will see plenty of snaps and provide a nice underneath target for Rivers. San Diego has a decent defense so some Palmer turnovers will set up some short fields and easy points.
Finals Score: San Diego 28…Arizona 21
We have a couple automatics at QB with Brees and Ryan. I can’t come up with a compelling reason why you would even think twice unless somehow you own both. I do believe that New Orleans has upgraded their defense so it won’t shock me if either White or Jones at least is slowed down a little bit. Colston should be an auto start as well, many are expecting big things from him this year.
There are some risky plays but at the same time you want to take a dip or trip with a few of these. Both Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram should be strong considerations fro flex spots. We have to believe what we saw and heard in the preseason at this point. Ingram train is going to start this weekend. I have watched Pierre Thomas for many years and while he offers some flex points, he has never been a true stud so the door is open for Ingram to grab a sizeable portion of this offense. But both are going to be rotated on and off the field throughout the game, that’s a trademark of this offense is keeping their backs fresh.
Brandin Cooks will be on some short lists but I would like to see a game or two first before I roll him out there as a starter, however with Kenny Stills ruled out you have a chance for him to hit the box score in week 1. Need time to see the target distribution and Colston, Graham, and at least 2 backs are going to be fed first. And for Atlanta, I would pass on anyone not named White, Jones, or SJax until we see the game plan. Freeman still has value but I saw where he was running 4th on the depth chart. The TE position will not be utilized the same way with TG moving on the studio/booth. It makes sense that Atlanta wants better protection so they can get the ball downfield with Jones and White.
Final Score: New Orleans 31…Atlanta 27
Cincinnati at Baltimore (-1.5) (42.5)
I find it hard to not like Cincinnati in this game. Baltimore looks a little dull and will be missing Ray Rice for the first couple weeks. I’m not sold that Steve Smith has all that much left in the tank or that he seriously can help this passing game. Time will tell but I saw him in person last year and he looked old. I hope you have better options than Flacco because the Bengals defense should be ready to roll. I think Cincinnati will want to announce their intentions in 2014 and anything short of a deep playoff run is going to be disappointing for them. They have a strong collection of talent now on offense and defense, time for Coach Lewis to start a long playoff run.
I don’t see Pierce as a strong play this week. Other than starting because Rice is out, don’t trust that he is automatic for 15, that would seem like high prediction to me. Maybe he can punch one in form short range. Torrey Smith should perform as a solid WR3 option. It should be noted however that outside of a 6/165/TD performance back in 2011, many of his Cinci games have been pretty mediocre. Perhaps Pitta and Smith can help deflect some of the coverage, but that’s a good reason to sit some of these guys in week 1 and watch the game. I don’t see this as super high scoring.
For Cinci, I would pass on Hill this week. Bernard, AJ, and yes I might start Andy Dalton if you have him as part of a 1-2 combo. I see Cinci working the short passing game underneath before going up top to stretch the Ravens with Green. These are not the small kids on the block anymore, they have attitude and they are not intimidated by the Ravens anymore. I would leave Sanu and the TE spot for Cinci be it Graham/Eifert alone for the moment.
Final Score: Cincinnati 24…Baltimore 17
Buffalo at Chicago (-7) (47.5)
The Bills have looked terrible and on the surface this looks like a blowout. The Bears should have their way thru the air in this game which means by the late 3rd you will be watching a lot of Forte hand offs. All the Bears should be starting for you, only exception might be Martellus Bennett who had an up n down preseason including being suspended by the coach, if I had other options I would look elsewhere for this week.
I want to go on record and just say that I don’t see Spiller as a factor this season and I’m not sure I see him returning kicks as a positive. That said at some point this team has to pass the ball be it Orton or Manuel. Both will need a safety valve so Spiller could still be valuable in the passing game. Fred Jackson is now 32 but he still has one of the best noses for finding 3 or 4 yards when there was less than 1 to begin with, guy moves the ball and is a treat to watch. All that respect and the fact remains he is 32 so eventually one way or the other I see Bryce Brown getting touches. If you can stash him for later on in the season I would do so.
Not sure how you can confidently start Sammy Watkins or any other WR for Buffalo but if I had to guess I might think Mike Williams ends up with the most impact this week. Just a hunch but he is the most polished of any WR they have plus his resume includes some decent stats. I’m not implying you start him but more trying to drive the point home how awful the passing game is in Buffalo at the moment.
There was a report surfacing about the GM and HC in Buffalo screaming at each other and the HC saying “fire me now” so that’s not good.
Final Score: Chicago 37…Buffalo 6
Washington at Houston (-3) (44.5)
Let’s focus on the must starts before we entertain unicorns I mean longshots at some of the other spots. Arian Foster has been billed as getting the lion’s share of the touches this week. Sounds reasonable, as I am not a big fan of much behind him. I hope they don’t wear him out. I do not see any reason Foster can’t have something along the lines of 80-100yds/TD in this one. I also would go ahead and start Andre Johnson. Odds are you have nothing better on your bench and no matter who they start at QB it stands to reason they will target Johnson a bunch. I would not start Hopkins until we see that this offense can support 2 WRs on a weekly basis.
Alfred Morris is a must start for owners. I am interested to see what Roy Helu’s role is going to be on this team. Some have pimped a Bernard role for him, eager to see how this plays out. In honestly can’t fathom that much production for him but then again this is a new coach so I don’t want to make proclamations when in fact no one truly knows, not yet but we’re gonna find out soon.
Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed, can they all be expected to perform at a high level? The fact is Houston has a strong DLine and the Skins OL is probably somewhere in the middle at best. I expect RG3 to be under a lot of pressure. Have you seen Clowney in the preseason? He looks like he might hurt somebody. My gut says that one of the 2 WRs is going to have a below avg day. This is another interesting situation to watch this weekend.
Final Score: Houston 21…Washington 20
Tennessee at Kansas City (-3) (43.5)
I would pass on the Titans backfield until we have a chance to see what Bishop Sankey can handle. Someone will plunge in a TD, likely Greene but he’s no RB1 in this league. This looks like a lower scoring game on the board IMO.
For KC, I can’t see a WR racking much more than 50-60 yards this week. I would expect a huge dose of Charles who might be the gap in the passing game. Looks like Fasano is still TE1 on the depth chart but that’ a joke. I see Kelce having a surprise week in a game where at some point the Chiefs will need some vertical punch and that might be the door for Kelce to step into.
Lot of debate with Hunter vs Wright. As long as Wright is avg 6-7 catches a game there is no reason to have a debate. I can see Hunter getting more targets this season but Wright is a reliable set of hands.
Finals Score: Kansas City 20…Tennessee 14
New England at Miami (+4) (46.5)
Let’s focus on the Miami secondary because that plus the outside pass rush of Vernon and Wake is going to put a lot of pressure on an aging veteran QB who already likes the short passing game too much. You have Grimes on one side and then Finnegan on the other. Finnegan has been tearing up camp the same way Grimes did last year and we saw how that turned out. Dobson and any other WR lining up wide or outside is going to have problems. Brady being the smart guy he is will work the underneath stuff so Edelman, Amendola, Gronk, Vereen, those guys are the ones to grab this week. Edelman and Vereen will likely rack the most receptions this week. Ridley is not terrible option at RB either this week.
Mike Wallace or perhaps Hartline are going to be off the map with Revis taking over. I see Charles Clay and some of the secondary WRs which Miami has plenty of now, taking the lead this week. Knowshon Moreno should see a lot of action, he’s an option in deeper leagues or multiple flex rosters. I will be eager to see the development of Jarvis Landry throughout the season. I like him a lot and eventually Wallace will be moved on and Landry will be a starter in the league. He had a sensational camp.
Miami has a lot more talent than they have had in previous seasons despite a patchwork OL which will be the Achilles heal throughout the season. Hopefully they can keep Tannehill upright from the 58 sacks he endured last season. The game is scheduled to tip off at 1:00 and Miami has not hosted a Week 1 1:00 football game with a city from the North in some time. New England will feel like death warmed over by the end of the 3rd Q. If Miami can keep it close they have a chance to pull off the miracle week 1.
Final Score: Miami 20…New England 17
Oakland at NY Jets (-5.5) (40.5)
As happy as I am that Carr will be starting for Oakland, starting on the road in New York is going to be a tall task for the rookie. I don’t see Oakland doing a lot and I don’t find any compelling reasons to start any of them. I feel MJD is going to have merit during the season but it might be tough to scratch out 12 points this week. James Jones maybe in a pinch but I would let most of them sit this week and watch the game to start drawing better conclusions.
I’m not super high on much the Jets roll out in the passing game but I understand owners starting Decker. Chris Johnson seems like the prize this week and perhaps Ivory will see enough action to warrant a flex spot. Ivory IMO will see about 40% of the load with CJ garnering the other 60. I also believe Johnson will appear in the passing game weekly so you add that up and CJ is a nice sleeper week 1, perfect flex option if you need to go that route, 80-100 total yards, 50/50 on the TD but count on a few receptions in PPR leagues should move him comfortably into a strong RB2 area. It would not shock me if Geno Smith cracks the top15 this week. He could be in line for multiple TD pass/rush and maybe 200-250 yards of offense combined.
Final Score: NY Jets 24…Oakland 10
Jacksonville at Philadelphia (-10.5) (52)
I find in these inter-conference games where one team is a big favorite that many times the game is much closer than it should be. I think these two teams met in Jacksonville when Vick was starting. I would like Jax a lot better if Bortles was gonna be the QB. As it is they have no punch at RB, Chad Henne is a joke, their WRs outside of Cecil Shorts(OUT) have very little experience, there’s not much to like heading into Philly. It’s a waiting game until Bortles takes the controls.
As far as Philly is concerned, I think you have to start Zac Ertz. No guy has been hyped as much in the preseason as this guy. It seems like everyone feels he is a shoe in to excel in this offense. Maclin on the outside does nothing for me. Cooper is OK but has his limitations and Mathews is a rookie so it will take time. I see them leaning on McCoy and the running game while working the quick short passing game. Where is the vertical threat here now? Teams will catch on at some point. But in week 1 it shouldn’t matter vs Jax.
Final Score: Philadelphia 30…Jacksonville 17
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-7) (41.5)
I’ll deal with the Browns assuming there is no Josh Gordon. Certainly the Steeler shave the advantage but these Steelers are not as intimidating as they have been in the past. Kind of like the Ravens as both are in divisional games week 1. By now you probably have heard what Merril Hoge had to say about Johnny Manziel and some of it might be true but the kid makes plays. I can’t explain it and perhaps a few games will show how right Hoge is but on the surface Manziel offer some excitement for the Browns.
Seems like Ben Tate is going to be slated for 300+ touches. Can he handle 300+ touches is my first question but it seems to reason they will lean heavily on him in the beginning of the season. Will he post 20/40 or will it look more like 20/90, somewhere in the middle is about right. A few receptions maybe and a 25% chance of a TD makes him a decent play. You likely drafted him in the 5th but unless you have a lot better options then you could do worse than 15-20 touches.
Jordan Cameron seems like the only must play for the Brown in the passing game. Miles Austin and his role is something to watch. They have little at WR, if Gordon is gone for the season then you have to think he will catch 50-60 balls by accident. I wouldn’t start him this week but keep an eye on his targets. Not sure Cleveland can support a lot of receivers right now outside of Cameron.
Big Ben is a solid option this week and look for both Brown and Markus Wheaton to make some noise this week. Heath Miller is certainly an option at TE if you are hurting. And look for Bell to see a lot of work especially once the Stealers build a lead. If Big Ben and the passing game plus a solid RB is not good enough to decimate a punchless Cleveland team then it’s going to be a long season for Pittsburgh. But the reality is I see them thrashing the Browns and start flashing a more potent offense.
Finals Score: Pittsburgh 35…Cleveland 10
Minnesota at St Louis (-3.5) (43)
Nothing to love about either passing game so the goods comes down quickly to ADP and whatever the blend is over on the Rams’ side of the ball. We can discuss CDP and Greg Jennings plus Kyle Rudolph. If you have a strong opinion on them then go for it but I see a pretty tough Rams defense and I’m not ager to run any of those guys out there this week. Is it Cassel and for how long? Outside of ADP I would try to pass on the rest for now. Besides, the Rams have an outstanding DL and I would expect a good pass rush on Cassel. Long balls down the field will be hard to come by for the Vikes.
The Rams will roll with Shaun Hill. The guy is a decent back up QB but not really the guy you want every week out there. Looks like Britt, Austin, and Quick will start. Kenny Britt has some sleeper signals on him. He can work the alleys along the sidelines, Hill likes those passes and is a down the field type passer. His short passing game is something to be desired so I would not be excited about much in that area like Austin. Stacy will get the lion’ share but I see Benny Cunningham also snaring some touches. Stacy has a good chance to have a nice week with something along 100/TD. I would definitely get him in your line up if you own him. He won’t be great every week so take advantage while you can.
Final Score: St Louis 20…Minnesota 17
San Francisco vs Dallas (+4) (51.5)
You absolutely love the Niners this week against arguably the worst defense in the NFL. Gore and Hyde will see time this week. Gore can’t do it all and he won’t have to. Crabtree should be wheeled out of the garage and ready to roll. Don’t be surprised if Vernon Davis makes owners sorry they passed on him for the likes of Dennis Pitta this week. Anquan Boldin because of his excellent run blocking will see plenty of snaps but I also have been impressed with Stevie Johnson and I think he will see his fair share of snaps. The Niners also have Lloyd floating around in their top 4 WR stable so CK is going to have a lot of weapons to throw the ball to.
All signs point to Kaepernick having a big game and I’m not going to say otherwise but I will say that is he has a pedestrian game, owners better start making 2nd plans quickly. I also do not think if he makes a big splash this weekend that he is automatically back to big upside. The Niners only throw about 25 passes a game, that’s pretty low.
Dez, Murray, and Jason Witten should all be starts this weekend. The Niners are down a couple players on defense so finding a pass rush against a strong OL is going to be tough. I also think Romo will have a decent day. No reason not to start Dallas players every week. They will need to score 30 most weeks to stay competitive so take full advantage of it and know that garbage points count the same as points earlier in the game so enjoy. Terrence Williams is a guy I would take a look at but in week 1 you should have better options. Dez is not intimidated but Williams is still only in hi 2nd year so be glad to own him for other match ups like the 6 divisional games they have but I would let him sit this week.
Final Score: San Fran 41…Dallas 31
Carolina at Tampa Bay (-3) (38)
This should be one of the slobberknockers on the docket for the day. Big question is whether Cam Newton is going to be able to play, looks like he should be a go but have some other plans because even if he starts this is a tough match up for them. I also am not a big fan of any Carolina WRs early on. Greg Olsen should be solid but the rest is a mess.
The running game has issues because DeAngelo looked over the hill or at least looks like he lost a step. Maybe Stewart can finally stay healthy but we’ve been saying that since he entered the league. I have a feeling Carolina is going to be a major disappointment this week.
Doug Martin should see plenty of touches. Early on he will find yards hard to come by so I hope the Bucs stay patient into the 2nd half because eventually they will wear them down. Play action should yield big plays to Vincent Jackson and eventually that will allow for more space. It is going to be hard to stack the box with two 6 foot 5 WRs who bounce off defenders after they catch the ball.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 17…Carolina 13
Indianapolis at Denver (-7.5) (55.5)
You have to assume the Colts will fall behind so at some point all of the receivers get a boost. I like the Denver defense and they will make it hard for the Colts even once garbage time rolls around. TY Hilton might have issues getting loose on the long ball but Wayne and Nicks should provide targets underneath along with the duo TEs. Trent Richardson is a pass for me. The OL cannot open holes and he needs room because he cannot create his own in this offense.
Emmanuel Sanders should be a go for most owners this week. We know the usual suspects for Denver but with Welker out, I would assume an increase for Sanders. I have no problem wheeling him out as a WR3 or flex with big upside this week. Top15 is not out of the question. Look for Montee Ball to see plenty of work with a nice lead at some point in the 2nd half.
Final Score: Denver 34…Indianapolis 17
NY Giants at Detroit (-6.5) (47)
The Lions enter this game looking like the team with a little momentum. They have Megtron, they have Reggie Bush and Joique Bell to rotate in the backfield on almost every other play, they signed free agent Golden Tate who is going to make the WR2 role on this team relevant, and they have a nice combo at TE including Ebron the rookie.
The Giants counter with a terrible preseason that looked almost as bad if not worst then what they had last year. Hopefully they can start putting drives together in the game on Monday Night. Right now it looks like Victor Cruz and Rashad Jennings should be about the most you dip into this offense for now. Some folks are high on Reuben Randle but I wouldn’t be in a hurry to run him out there.
Final Score: Detroit 24…NY Giants 17
San Diego at Arizona (-3) (46)
This is a potential strong play this week. What I am referencing is that Ellington is not playing Monday Night. The doctors are saying 2-4 weeks, Arians is hollering game time decision so I’ll follow the doctors lead here. Don’t wait until he is announced as out and the line changes or this line moves by Monday Night, grab the Chargers right now.
I expect Carson Palmer to throw for a lot of yards so I definitely like Fitz and Floyd this week. If you are a Cam Newton owner and in a league where there are potentially 10-15 QBs floating on the waiver wire and Palmer is one of them, I would grab them now and plan on playing him this week.
Rivers will be just fine and maybe Allen will have issues with Peterson but somebody is going to emerge in this game. Maybe Gates has a big one but the passing game will help with the rushing game and I expect a solid performace from Ryan Mathews week 1. Danny Woodhead will see plenty of snaps and provide a nice underneath target for Rivers. San Diego has a decent defense so some Palmer turnovers will set up some short fields and easy points.
Finals Score: San Diego 28…Arizona 21
