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Falcons -4.5 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
flc735
Footballguy
ya, lions are going to win this one. when it seems too easy, it's usually because vegas has some info that we dont. this is a "we want you to bet on atl" line.
also, look at last week. atl just crushed nyg. they could be flat this game. and they are playing in det.
i would take the det money line to be honest
also, look at last week. atl just crushed nyg. they could be flat this game. and they are playing in det.
i would take the det money line to be honest
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
It's easy money for Vegas.
3 hour lunch
Footballguy
4.5 is one of those lines where Vegas isn't exactly sure what to expect. Usually lines trend closer to 3 or 7. With this line they won't get hammered on either side, although I'm sure the public will be betting Atlanta. Everyone seems to only remember last week when it comes to betting. What are the chances Atlanta plays their best game of the year, two games in a row?
donkshow
Footballguy
9/216/3 for Megatron
need2know
Footballguy
Lions suck
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
going by the records (12-2 vs 4-10) it looks like a lock but not so fast...
they go a little more by point dif. when setting lines (+8 a game vs -3.5). Throw in home advantage and its really not that far off.
they go a little more by point dif. when setting lines (+8 a game vs -3.5). Throw in home advantage and its really not that far off.
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
Look at what the Lions have done @ home this year.
St. Louis: W 27-23
Minnesota: L 13-20
Seattle: W 28-24
Green Bay: L 20-24
Houston: L 31-34 OT
Indianapolis: L 33-35
Go ahead and bet Atlanta.
St. Louis: W 27-23
Minnesota: L 13-20
Seattle: W 28-24
Green Bay: L 20-24
Houston: L 31-34 OT
Indianapolis: L 33-35
Go ahead and bet Atlanta.
The_Man
Footballguy
Yeah, but look at what Atlanta has done on the road lately!@NO: L 27-31@TB: W 24-23@CAR: L 20-30Oh, whoops.I was actually thinking that with the hook, Detroit is one of my favorite picks this week
Hang 10
Footballguy
Not sure they need to play their best game to beat the Lions by a TD.
Shlon
Footballguy
Divisional games are usually close, here's ATL's non divisional road games
KC W 40-24@SD W 27-3@WAS W 24-17@PHI W 30-17It depends on which Atlanta team shows up, against Carolina they played vanilla / safe and had no blitzes. Against the other teams they had a lot of exotic blitzes / disguised coverage and made elite QB's look bad with multiple INT's (Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Drew Brees). So the line is pretty good at -4.5 even though it would benefit the Lions to lose because of draft position.
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scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
It depends on which Detroit team shows up as well. I'm guessing it is a spirited group playing at home on national TV. Playing for respect.Do you honestly think it even enters players or coaches mind that a loss for Detroit would mean a better draft pick?Divisional games are usually close, here's ATL's non divisional road games
@SD W 27-3
@WAS W 24-17
@PHI W 30-17
It depends on which Atlanta team shows up, against Carolina they played vanilla / safe and had no blitzes. Against the other teams they had a lot of exotic blitzes / disguised coverage and made elite QB's look bad with multiple INT's (Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Drew Brees). So the line is pretty good at -4.5 even though it would benefit the Lions to lose because of draft position.
I wouldn't go so far as to say Detroit will win, but betting Atlanta at -4.5 is stupid imo.
JShare87
Footballguy
I will be disappointed if Megatron puts up those numbers. I am expecting 14/379/6
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
Nah....he's going to tank it and have about 2 for 17 yards on 15 targets. Why? Because he wants Detroit to get a better draft pick in 2013.
The_Man
Footballguy
The most recent of those games was Oct. 28. Falcons have struggled on the road lately, and are coming off a huge home win. They look ripe for a letdown to me. I think this game is kind of a toss-up - getting 4.5 makes it appealing to me.Divisional games are usually close, here's ATL's non divisional road games
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Atlanta is Pasquino's lock of the week where he is rolling at a 44% clip on the year. Tread lightly.
Shlon
Footballguy
Like I said, the 3 most recent road games were all divisional games which are always close. Atlanta could win close 3 or lose but if they use the amoeba defense like they did against Denver, New Orleans, and the Giants, then it could be a blowout.The most recent of those games was Oct. 28. Falcons have struggled on the road lately, and are coming off a huge home win. They look ripe for a letdown to me. I think this game is kind of a toss-up - getting 4.5 makes it appealing to me.Divisional games are usually close, here's ATL's non divisional road games
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I heard he wants them to pick someone else that can catch the ball. He's getting tired out there.
smackdaddies
Footballguy
what he said'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
You would have thought that Houston had an easy win against them, too. But that went into overtime on Thanksgiving. They play teams tough sometimes. Still could be a blowout, but not necessarily "easy money." I could see another close game.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
If you're going to do it, buy the hook.'Eminence said:
LittleLarry
Footballguy
Good posting.+4.5 is always the best line for dogs imo. There are very many scoring combinations in football where the difference between winner and loser is 4 points.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Logically, yes, easy money. Nothing logical about the NFL though.
Detroit's played a lot of close games, they slept walked in a meaningless game against Arizona last week and it showed, I think they were looking ahead to this game - with their season done for this primetime stand alone game is all they have left. Atlanta has consistently played down to inferior competition and isn't nearly as good on the road.
Atlanta should win at least 34-20 ish if they show up and play their game, but in a game that really doesn't mean too much (they can still win next week to lock up home field) I can see a flat performance and this coming down to a late field goal.
Detroit's played a lot of close games, they slept walked in a meaningless game against Arizona last week and it showed, I think they were looking ahead to this game - with their season done for this primetime stand alone game is all they have left. Atlanta has consistently played down to inferior competition and isn't nearly as good on the road.
Atlanta should win at least 34-20 ish if they show up and play their game, but in a game that really doesn't mean too much (they can still win next week to lock up home field) I can see a flat performance and this coming down to a late field goal.
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
I think that the NFL betting market is the absurdly efficient and that while some slightly profitable opportunities exist when lines first come out on the previous Sunday night, you are almost certainly just losing the juice longterm when you bet on lines that have been out for an entire week.What do you think you know about this game that the top sports betting pros and the bookmakers don't know?'Eminence said:
flc735
Footballguy
ah, dont fall for it. everyone is betting DET and the line still shifted in favor of ATL? that doesn't raise a red flag to you?thats the death blow. there is no way DET looses now. like i said, take DET money line at +175.det 34atl 17
LittleLarry
Footballguy
If you're confident of that result, you can do much better than +175On a quick glance The Greek has Det -3.5 at +270
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
What if I want to bet...$60?'Eminence said:
Pigskin Boss
Footballguy
Take Atlanta for the money
got_nugs
Footballguy
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Never buy a hook unless it gets you to a key number, even then it's not advisable. Also a friend told me years ago to never touch four and a hook, and I never do. HTH.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Billy Bats
Footballguy
White: 8 / 153 / 2TDJones: 7 / 71 / 1TDEasy money.
Laughing at everyone who claimed "Vegas this, Vegas that". Want to know what I think? Watch football, make money. Good luck in your championships, fellas.
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me too.
Once my bankroll gets a little larger...
at winning a bet thinking you can beat the juice betting NFL.You'll get slaughtered in the end....if you make smart bets. You realize that the Falcons have covered the spread over and over again all season? I could have bet on them nearly every week and made money. Especially if I was strategic about it, throwing in other easy bets (49ers, Jacksonville, etc.) throughout the season.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Atlanta is 9-6 ATS this year. If you had bet your $50 on them every week so far, you'd be up $120 ($450 for the wins, -$330 for the losses, assuming 5% juice). That ain't bad, but not really worth bragging about.
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