Falcons -4.5 (1 Viewer)

[Eminence]

You realize that the Falcons have covered the spread over and over again all season? I could have bet on them nearly every week and made money. Especially if I was strategic about it, throwing in other easy bets (49ers, Jacksonville, etc.) throughout the season.

Atlanta is 9-6 ATS this year. If you had bet your $50 on them every week so far, you'd be up $120 ($450 for the wins, -$330 for the losses, assuming 5% juice). That ain't bad, but not really worth bragging about.

$500, $1,200. See the light. Better than having your money in the bank.(not specifically targeted at the guy i'm quoting.)

 

[Demian]

You realize that the Falcons have covered the spread over and over again all season? I could have bet on them nearly every week and made money. Especially if I was strategic about it, throwing in other easy bets (49ers, Jacksonville, etc.) throughout the season.

Atlanta is 9-6 ATS this year. If you had bet your $50 on them every week so far, you'd be up $120 ($450 for the wins, -$330 for the losses, assuming 5% juice). That ain't bad, but not really worth bragging about.

You forgot to bold that ^

 

[Assani Fisher]

I just flipped a coin 15 times and 9 times out of 15 it landed on heads....omg betting on heads(and laying juice) must be so profitable!!!!

 

[Eminence]

I just flipped a coin 15 times and 9 times out of 15 it landed on heads....omg betting on heads(and laying juice) must be so profitable!!!!

early drinking are we?

 

[Eminence]

You realize that the Falcons have covered the spread over and over again all season? I could have bet on them nearly every week and made money. Especially if I was strategic about it, throwing in other easy bets (49ers, Jacksonville, etc.) throughout the season.

Atlanta is 9-6 ATS this year. If you had bet your $50 on them every week so far, you'd be up $120 ($450 for the wins, -$330 for the losses, assuming 5% juice). That ain't bad, but not really worth bragging about.

suppose one bet on the falcons, patriots, and 49ers all season. the would have turned a profit, no?

 

[moderated]

Detroit cannot stop Roddy White and Julio Jones. Oh, Tony Gonzalez says "hello".

Watch football, make money.

at winning a bet thinking you can beat the juice betting NFL.You'll get slaughtered in the end.

...if you make smart bets. You realize that the Falcons have covered the spread over and over again all season? I could have bet on them nearly every week and made money. Especially if I was strategic about it, throwing in other easy bets (49ers, Jacksonville, etc.) throughout the season.

Easy bets in the most watched and studied sport? Gl with that.

 

[Assani Fisher]

I just flipped a coin 15 times and 9 times out of 15 it landed on heads....omg betting on heads(and laying juice) must be so profitable!!!!

early drinking are we?

No, I have not had a drink today. I have, however, made 100% of my living off of professionally gambling the past 9 years.

 

[Eminence]

I just flipped a coin 15 times and 9 times out of 15 it landed on heads....omg betting on heads(and laying juice) must be so profitable!!!!

early drinking are we?

No, I'm someone who has made 100% of his living off of professional gambling the past 9 years and who knows what he is talking about.

Shoot me a PM? Interested in that field. I've got the goods. I know you can't directly benefit from helping me out but I would be willing to take any wisdom you have to give.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

at OP

 

[Eminence]

at OP

Follow my threads.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Don't think I've ever seen a thread where a guy is so proud of himself for winning a bet that had a 12-2 favored by four against a 4-10 team.

:confetti:

 

[Eminence]

Don't think I've ever seen a thread where a guy is so proud of himself for winning a bet that had a 12-2 favored by four against a 4-10 team.

:confetti:

How are these picks doing?http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=672680&pid=15153468&st=0entry15153468

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Don't think I've ever seen a thread where a guy is so proud of himself for winning a bet that had a 12-2 favored by four against a 4-10 team.

:confetti:

How are these picks doing?http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=672680&pid=15153468&st=0entry15153468

You must've won a lot of money on those picks oh wait

 

[Eminence]

Don't think I've ever seen a thread where a guy is so proud of himself for winning a bet that had a 12-2 favored by four against a 4-10 team.

:confetti:

How are these picks doing?http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=672680&pid=15153468&st=0entry15153468

You must've won a lot of money on those picks oh wait

I'm only 21 years old, I don't have the spare money to gamble just yet. I would rather be right than wrong...

 

[LittleLarry]

I just flipped a coin 15 times and 9 times out of 15 it landed on heads....omg betting on heads(and laying juice) must be so profitable!!!!

early drinking are we?

No, I have not had a drink today. I have, however, made 100% of my living off of professionally gambling the past 9 years.

I've been following your career from afar. I figured by now the "leechiness" would have gotten to you, and you would have taken a job providing a service to someone.

 

[flc735]

Detroit cannot stop Roddy White and Julio Jones. Oh, Tony Gonzalez says "hello".

Watch football, make money.

at winning a bet thinking you can beat the juice betting NFL.You'll get slaughtered in the end.

...if you make smart bets. You realize that the Falcons have covered the spread over and over again all season? I could have bet on them nearly every week and made money. Especially if I was strategic about it, throwing in other easy bets (49ers, Jacksonville, etc.) throughout the season.

the best in the world win 56% or so.

if you could consistently win 60% of them, you should be a millionaire.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Atlanta is Pasquino's lock of the week where he is rolling at a 44% clip on the year. Tread lightly.

Might want to check my record ATS this week. Just sayin'.

 

[Assani Fisher]

I just flipped a coin 15 times and 9 times out of 15 it landed on heads....omg betting on heads(and laying juice) must be so profitable!!!!

early drinking are we?

No, I'm someone who has made 100% of his living off of professional gambling the past 9 years and who knows what he is talking about.

Shoot me a PM? Interested in that field. I've got the goods. I know you can't directly benefit from helping me out but I would be willing to take any wisdom you have to give.

A few tips:1. Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong is an excellent book to read.2. Line shopping is absolutely vital. Nobody beats sports betting longterm without it.3. Understanding mathematics and probability distributions is just as important, if not moreso, than handicapping ability. 4. Before you make a bet, ask yourself why the sportsbook would knowingly accept a bet from you if it were in your favor. If you think the answer to this question is that you are better at assessing the teams than the linesmakers, you are almost certainly wrong.5. You say "I've got the goods"...perhaps you do, I'm not sure. Heres a little exercise you can try out. If you pass this test then you have a chance(if you do everything else perfectly) of eeking out a 1-2% edge on sports betting. If you can't pass this test, then you literally have no hope. Heres what you do: Look at next week's games, but don't look at the point spreads. Write down what you think the spreads for each game should be. You should be able to predict the exact line for around 50% of the games, and you should never be off by more than 1 or 1.5 points(and never crossing a key number of 3 and 7). If you can't do this, then you will never have any hope of beating sports betting and you'd be much better off giving up and saving your money. I can indeed do this, but I cannot beat NFL betting though.6. Heres some additional good advice(I did not write this, just copying and pasting it):

the rule of thumb is if you're unsure whether or not you're sharp and have to ask, you're NOTthe next 6 pts generally outlines a true sharp player, you likely need at least 4 to be within what's considered as sharp territory, also make sure the entire bullet applies1.) you are willing to shop for the best number and not just grab it from your 1st out, you also have some predictions as to the overall line movement for the bet and try to time your bets to obtain the best shopped number at its apex.2.) you actively try to find and bet middles, scalps, +ev promotions and bonuses whenever possible. a large part of this again depends on your predictions of line movement. also any +ev derivative of straight bet combinations, whenever they could be found such as correlated parlays/teasers/etc...3.) you handicap the sport w/out the aid of the seeing the lines already in place, you constantly use tools such as datamining, insider knowledge, statistics and winning subsets to help you improve your handicapping. you also present value the bet after the game is over and see how accurate your original cap was and how you can further improve the process. this is then factored into your next handicap w/ the most recent results more heavily weighted.4.) when you have active discussions w/ other gamblers whom you respect to be sharp (or reading their books or posts), you're more interested in discussing and learning their winning methods than just to obtain their picks5.) You consistently can beat the average closing line/price 6.) you have a bankroll set aside for gambling purposes only, and have kept detailed long term records of all your bets. you have won consistently over the long term at the sports that you're presently betting (refer to your detailed records), and you have cut back or ceased altogether betting on the sports that you have not consistently demonstrated a profit in. you use some derivative form of kelly criterion to help you size your bets according to the estimated edge based on both your current calculations and previous records.

Less than 1% of people who attempt to beat sports betting can do so(and by "attempt" I mean devote hours and hours of time to it, not just randomly bet from time to time). The odds are incredibly stacked against you. Unless you have always been incredibly good at math, logic, and probability then I wouldn't bother to give it a try. FWIW, I am a lifetime loser at sports betting. I can't overstate enough how difficult it is to beat. I would say that the average person has a significantly better chance of making money at day-trading(although I'm not incredibly educated on day-trading, so I could be wrong in saying that).

 

[tjnc09]

I just flipped a coin 15 times and 9 times out of 15 it landed on heads....omg betting on heads(and laying juice) must be so profitable!!!!

early drinking are we?

No, I have not had a drink today. I have, however, made 100% of my living off of professionally gambling the past 9 years.

By betting sports?

 

[Assani Fisher]

I just flipped a coin 15 times and 9 times out of 15 it landed on heads....omg betting on heads(and laying juice) must be so profitable!!!!

early drinking are we?

No, I have not had a drink today. I have, however, made 100% of my living off of professionally gambling the past 9 years.

By betting sports?

I'm down lifetime in sports, but I was able to beat NBA betting using a NBA computer simulation model that took ~3 years to build. I am down overall at sports due to my losses at NFL betting, but much of those losses came from bets where I was betting for fun and not betting because I thought I had a legit edge. I am up lifetime on bets that I made when I was taking sports betting seriously. I've made most of my money from poker.

 

[Raider Nation]

This is now the SP Wagering Thread.

So let it be written. So let it be done.

 

[tjnc09]

I just flipped a coin 15 times and 9 times out of 15 it landed on heads....omg betting on heads(and laying juice) must be so profitable!!!!

early drinking are we?

No, I have not had a drink today. I have, however, made 100% of my living off of professionally gambling the past 9 years.

By betting sports?

I'm down lifetime in sports, but I was able to beat NBA betting using a NBA computer simulation model that took ~3 years to build. I am down overall at sports due to my losses at NFL betting, but much of those losses came from bets where I was betting for fun and not betting because I thought I had a legit edge. I am up lifetime on bets that I made when I was taking sports betting seriously. I've made most of my money from poker.

Interesting. I'm not being a troll, but why WERE you able to beat the NBA vs. ARE beating the NBA? What changed/happened? The NFL/NBA lines are silly good - one is better off capping an Arkansas Pine Bluff - Central Michigan game no one else on earth cares about.

 

[Assani Fisher]

Its a lot of work to line shop and stay on top of things and my hourly rate is better from poker, books are sharp and would quickly cut me off and/or limit my bet sizes so it became tough to get bets down, and most importantly I don't have access to the computer sim anymore(I wasn't the primary creator of it).

FWIW I was mostly winning due to betting overnight totals. Any sharp book is going to be pretty quick to cut you off from making these, as its well known that the market is a bit softer on these so when you start beating closing lines for largish amounts then they notice pretty quickly.

 

[Eminence]

This week I am thinking about taking a parlay:

Green Bay -3.5

Redskins -3

Thoughts on this line?

(Bears -3 and Ravens +3 also look appealing.)

 

[Raider Nation]

This week I am thinking about taking a parlay:Green Bay -3.5Redskins -3Thoughts on this line?(Bears -3 and Ravens +3 also look appealing.)

Before I offer advice, is this another "mind bet" or actual money?

 

[Eminence]

This week I am thinking about taking a parlay:Green Bay -3.5Redskins -3Thoughts on this line?(Bears -3 and Ravens +3 also look appealing.)

Before I offer advice, is this another "mind bet" or actual money?

My championship winnings, duh.Planning to place a real wager.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

This week I am thinking about taking a parlay:Green Bay -3.5Redskins -3Thoughts on this line?(Bears -3 and Ravens +3 also look appealing.)

Before I offer advice, is this another "mind bet" or actual money?

My championship winnings, duh.Planning to place a real wager.

How much did you win?

 

[Eminence]

This week I am thinking about taking a parlay:Green Bay -3.5Redskins -3Thoughts on this line?(Bears -3 and Ravens +3 also look appealing.)

Before I offer advice, is this another "mind bet" or actual money?

My championship winnings, duh.Planning to place a real wager.

How much did you win?

Ended up not making the bet, I figured Week 17 was a bad time to actually start putting my money where my mouth was. The lack of feedback also didn't help.