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Fanduel/DraftKings Week 3 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter nastynate
- Start date
Bobcat10
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I'm starting T.Y Hilton until he breaks out.
slackjawedyokel
Footballguy
A thought I had regarding the Th games... Its reasonable to exclude the turkey day games as well as the season openers (since players are fresh).
John Lee
Footballguy
Last week in this thread, some of you requested an early, Vegas-based analysis of the games for the week; I obliged that request and you can find it here:
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=14johnlee_TnP_Week3_VegasValue
This should help DFS players to focus on games with the highest scoring potential, as well as negating those with little value; the key is to build a core of players around which you will build rosters later in the week. Of course, it is still early in the week, so things are subject to change, but this is how I start every week. If you have questions, LMK.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=14johnlee_TnP_Week3_VegasValue
This should help DFS players to focus on games with the highest scoring potential, as well as negating those with little value; the key is to build a core of players around which you will build rosters later in the week. Of course, it is still early in the week, so things are subject to change, but this is how I start every week. If you have questions, LMK.
Hope someone put him in and leaves him there. Asainte is a possible play although his price isn't as cheap as last week and he isn't exactly a dynamic runner so I may pass this week.
(HULK)
(Smash)
Ridley is probably a safe-ish play during weeks when NE is favored by a significant amount. Weeks where the games are tight, I'm of the belief taht Vereen will eat into his touches and render them both RB3/Flex plays with boom/bust potentital.
So, I think you're right...no NE RBs in cash games until we get further clarification on usage (likely never)
karmarooster
Footballguy
Muchas gracias. Are the stars for each of Running/Passing/Defense based on your subjective view, or are they based on say fantasy PPG of the offense so far, fantasy PPG allowed by the defense, or something similar?
Also could you make it sortable by the column headers?
ajm27501
Footballguy
IMO, the "best" types of leagues are up to opinion. There certainly is much higher upside potential in doing the large tournaments like you have been doing. The H2H, 50/50 type contests should provide less variance, with a much higher likelihood of cashing, but for smaller amounts. I think many like to play in a combination of different types of contests to try to get a base amount of return but still keeping open the possibility of a larger cash. Ultimately comes down to what you're comfortable with.
If your looking to make a relatively consistent return then most of your money should be in H2H and 50/50 with just a small amount in large tournaments where the odds of cashing are much lower. If you just really enjoy the possibility of a huge win and aren't concerned with losing the money then stick to the really big tournaments.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I currently have limited funds dedicated to these daily's so I'm doing mostly H2H and 50/50's for that exact reason. It's easier to cash in those. Obviously the profit's are higher in the bigger tournaments but I'll save some for weeks I feel really confident in a lineup. Until then it's the lower games for me.
John Lee
Footballguy
Dirtybird said:
(HULK) said:
Thanks...it's always good to get feedback on things that are useful (or not useful).karmarooster said:
To answer the latter questions Karma:
- They are, indeed, my subjective vantage point for the games and positions; as my research continues throughout the week, I will incorporate projections, site-specific salary, and personnel changes (i.e., Ryan Mathews injury, ADP suspension, etc) into my final decisions. This table should be used as a tool to get you thinking about how the game could play out and the positions on each team that should benefit (i.e., 'gamescripting' as described in Part I of my 'DFS For Dummies' series).
- Regarding making the table sortable, I don't think it can be done in that format; we had a some trouble importing my spreadsheet into the FBG article submission page, but Clayton came up with what you saw & I think it does the trick. Besides, I already sorted it based on team totals (highest to lowest), which should be the most useful metric, as well as sorting out the 3-, 2-, and 1-star plays in the text below.
Just started playing. How does this roster look?
QB
Kirk Cousins
WAS @ PHI
RB
Knile Davis
KC @ MIA
Ahmad Bradshaw
IND @ JAC
WR
Calvin Johnson
DET v GB
Golden Tate
DET v GB
Jordy Nelson
GB @ DET
TE
Jimmy Graham
NO v MIN
K
Robbie Gould
CHI @ NYJ
D
New England Patriots
NE v OAK
QB
Kirk Cousins
WAS @ PHI
RB
Knile Davis
KC @ MIA
Ahmad Bradshaw
IND @ JAC
WR
Calvin Johnson
DET v GB
Golden Tate
DET v GB
Jordy Nelson
GB @ DET
TE
Jimmy Graham
NO v MIN
K
Robbie Gould
CHI @ NYJ
D
New England Patriots
NE v OAK
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Cousins scares the crap out of me. He's not nearly as good as people seem to think he has been. I'm steering clear of him completely.
dancingbones
Footballguy
Thx for this.John Lee said:
karmarooster
Footballguy
Depends what kind of game you're in. QBs have lower variance because they have the ball so often. TEs have greater variance because they only see 5-10 targets per game on average. If you're playing cash games, go with the stud QB.
dancingbones
Footballguy
I would go more for the cheap TE & top QB. A low point total at QB is a killer, whereas you can often times overcome a clunker at TE if you choose wisely elsewhere.
.02
karmarooster
Footballguy
And his price isn't even that low since he put up decent stats last week. Tannehill, Henne, Hoyer, Fitz are all cheaper if you want to dumpster dive.
I think he's a good play and someone I'm playing around with. If he plays, I'm going to have to downgrade somewhere else and grab Olsen/Ertz.
karmarooster
Footballguy
Donnell or "Don-elle" as they said on TV is a pretty decent alternative at the same price point.
karmarooster
Footballguy
Any thoughts out there on PThomas (6300) vs. Robinson (4700)? I didn't realize there was such a disparity in their prices. Feel like Thomas has the higher floor because if Robinson doesn't hit the TD he probably won't top 10 points. He didn't go over 10 points in week 1 even with the TD.
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Joe T
Footballguy
My gut tells me that Pierre Thomas will get the most of the work, but without knowing for sure I will probably avoid both this week.
Any general pearls of wisdom/rules of thumb you guys can offer for someone new to weekly salary games?
I scored $12 in starting credit at DraftKings with my paid RotoPass subscription and have run that amount up to $99 in two weeks after finishing 5th out of 50 teams in a 50/50 in Week 1 and 2nd out 48 teams in a $12 buy-in weekly tourney in Week 2. I'm guessing this is just a deceptive run of luck and that racking up contest wins won't always be this easy but I'd like some guidance from those of you who've found consistent success with it on the types of contests/buy-ins/team pool sizes I should be looking for when it comes to generating a consistent rate of return.
I scored $12 in starting credit at DraftKings with my paid RotoPass subscription and have run that amount up to $99 in two weeks after finishing 5th out of 50 teams in a 50/50 in Week 1 and 2nd out 48 teams in a $12 buy-in weekly tourney in Week 2. I'm guessing this is just a deceptive run of luck and that racking up contest wins won't always be this easy but I'd like some guidance from those of you who've found consistent success with it on the types of contests/buy-ins/team pool sizes I should be looking for when it comes to generating a consistent rate of return.
I agree Thomas has the higher floor but I still don't like him much except maybe in GPP.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Very new to all of this. Played a small handful of FD contests in week 1 and 2 to try to get a handle on how it works. I'm going to play a larger number of contests (still low-dollar) to try to get a realistic handle on my winning percentage moving forward. Basically still in data-gathering stages. That said, I would still like to not spend a ton in this stage.
My query is not about specific plays -- there's more than enough information out there on that. It's more about risk allocation and hedging.
My question involves the number of lineups to play. Obviously my big tournament lineup is different from my cash game lineups, no need to discuss that. My exposure in those massive shots in the dark will remain very limited for the time being. I'm focusing more on my play in leagues, H2H, and 50/50. I'm currently looking at spreading my play around in a matrix, 6 H2H, 1 20-team league, and 2 50/50 (in addition to my single big tournament).
This is my first foray into a 20-team league. What type of score should I target to expect a 60% "win" (finishing in the money) percentage in that format? Does it tend to mirror the 50/50 play, or bigger scores?
Additionally, what do most guys do in terms of lineups for H2H and 50/50 when spread out in 9 contests?
My query is not about specific plays -- there's more than enough information out there on that. It's more about risk allocation and hedging.
My question involves the number of lineups to play. Obviously my big tournament lineup is different from my cash game lineups, no need to discuss that. My exposure in those massive shots in the dark will remain very limited for the time being. I'm focusing more on my play in leagues, H2H, and 50/50. I'm currently looking at spreading my play around in a matrix, 6 H2H, 1 20-team league, and 2 50/50 (in addition to my single big tournament).
This is my first foray into a 20-team league. What type of score should I target to expect a 60% "win" (finishing in the money) percentage in that format? Does it tend to mirror the 50/50 play, or bigger scores?
Additionally, what do most guys do in terms of lineups for H2H and 50/50 when spread out in 9 contests?
dancingbones
Footballguy
It's easy when it's easy, and then BAM - you'll hit one of those weeks where your guys are duds & hopefully you're not all in on them!
I like the 3 man leagues @ fanduel myself. Better return on investment - and usually if I have a dud lineup it is a dud across the board.
I played all last year & came out ahead - but this year upped the stakes and I'm digging out of a hole.
Fun stuff tho, good luck!
Last week I had combined 24 50/50 and H2H. I used a number of different lineups but most were just slight variations. For instance Rogers, Graham, Wayne, and Houston DT were all in more than 20 of those lineups. Some others like Gio, Morris, and Hunter were also in over 15 lineups. So while I do vary there are still some players who can really hurt me if I am wrong like Hill in week 1. Some of the variation though comes from playing contests that start at 4 Sunday or 8 Sunday which require changes in lineups.
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Courtweeks87
Footballguy
This week I'm liking
Qb-cousins: going against eagles d! Should be able to cash in at least 15 points
rb-j. hill: should be plenty of mop up carries against a defense that Murray just torched for 170 yards. also don't see aj green playing this week.
Shady Mccoy- nothing to say here always worth the money.
Wr:
Calvin- packers d is horrible will be stacking him and Stafford often.
Alshon- depending on how he looks this week in practice he is gonna tear that jets defense apart.
Andre- a lock for 80 yards and 7 catches almost weekly got a couple red zone targets last week
Niles paul- I like this pair with cousins if reed is out again. In a shootout against the Eagles should put up at least 10 point floor bonus with a td
Cairo santos-
Bengals d- a offense the Cowboys just shut down I see a big game for Bengals this week
Qb-cousins: going against eagles d! Should be able to cash in at least 15 points
rb-j. hill: should be plenty of mop up carries against a defense that Murray just torched for 170 yards. also don't see aj green playing this week.
Shady Mccoy- nothing to say here always worth the money.
Wr:
Calvin- packers d is horrible will be stacking him and Stafford often.
Alshon- depending on how he looks this week in practice he is gonna tear that jets defense apart.
Andre- a lock for 80 yards and 7 catches almost weekly got a couple red zone targets last week
Niles paul- I like this pair with cousins if reed is out again. In a shootout against the Eagles should put up at least 10 point floor bonus with a td
Cairo santos-
Bengals d- a offense the Cowboys just shut down I see a big game for Bengals this week
GoodLloydHaveMercy
Footballguy
Just wondering what the point is for the free games on draft king with no prize pool... What's the point? Am I missing things?
John Lee
Footballguy
1) In a 20-team league, you should treat it the same as you would for a 1000-team league--the distribution of scores will still mimic a bell-shaped curve, meaning that you will need a fairly high score to place. I shoot for 180 points when entering anything that is not a 'cash game.'Tennessee_ATO said:
2) If you enter multiple lineups into cash games, you certainly reduce your risk, but you also reduce your upside in the process. I recommend no more than three cash lineups, but personally feel that two is better if you want to enter multiple lineups. Remember that, assuming there are optimal plays, you will be making less optimal lineups when you stray from your original selections.
I talk a little about multiple lineups as a hedge in my "DFS for Dummies" series here:
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=14johnlee_DFS4Dummies_Part4
