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Fanduel/DraftKings Week 3 (1 Viewer)

Tennessee_ATO said:
Very new to all of this. Played a small handful of FD contests in week 1 and 2 to try to get a handle on how it works. I'm going to play a larger number of contests (still low-dollar) to try to get a realistic handle on my winning percentage moving forward. Basically still in data-gathering stages. That said, I would still like to not spend a ton in this stage.

My query is not about specific plays -- there's more than enough information out there on that. It's more about risk allocation and hedging.

My question involves the number of lineups to play. Obviously my big tournament lineup is different from my cash game lineups, no need to discuss that. My exposure in those massive shots in the dark will remain very limited for the time being. I'm focusing more on my play in leagues, H2H, and 50/50. I'm currently looking at spreading my play around in a matrix, 6 H2H, 1 20-team league, and 2 50/50 (in addition to my single big tournament).

This is my first foray into a 20-team league. What type of score should I target to expect a 60% "win" (finishing in the money) percentage in that format? Does it tend to mirror the 50/50 play, or bigger scores?

Additionally, what do most guys do in terms of lineups for H2H and 50/50 when spread out in 9 contests?
1) In a 20-team league, you should treat it the same as you would for a 1000-team league--the distribution of scores will still mimic a bell-shaped curve, meaning that you will need a fairly high score to place. I shoot for 180 points when entering anything that is not a 'cash game.'

2) If you enter multiple lineups into cash games, you certainly reduce your risk, but you also reduce your upside in the process. I recommend no more than three cash lineups, but personally feel that two is better if you want to enter multiple lineups. Remember that, assuming there are optimal plays, you will be making less optimal lineups when you stray from your original selections.

I talk a little about multiple lineups as a hedge in my "DFS for Dummies" series here:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=14johnlee_DFS4Dummies_Part4
John - How about 3, 5, 10 man leagues? Do you lean toward a GPP style higher risk/reward lineup or the "cash" game H2H.

 
I did a quick team last night on DK:

QB - Wilson

RB - Morris

RB - Bush

WR - Harvin

WR - DThomas

WR - Tate

TE - Ertz

Flex - Cooks

DST - Pats

Pretty sure this is what I had, just going from memory. I kinda like the look of this team. Thoughts?

[/quote I like Wilson, Harvin, Tate, Morris, Pats a lot. Not that high on Bush although in GPP I could see him as a option. I will have K Davis in all my lineups most likely.
 
Bush is a pretty cheap option on DK this week. Believe he's only like $5k or something like that. Vegas has the Packers/Lions at the highest O/U, so why not take a chance on a cheap RB like Bush?

 
Bush is a pretty cheap option on DK this week. Believe he's only like $5k or something like that. Vegas has the Packers/Lions at the highest O/U, so why not take a chance on a cheap RB like Bush?
He is cheap and it will likely be high scoring game so maybe he blows up. But he was out touched 2 to 1 by Bell last week so that scares me especially in cash games. For me a back in a similar situation at a similar price with higher upside IMO is Sproules and the line on that is the second highest on the week I believe.
 
Thinking of going w/ this for my Thursday cash game lineup. Poke holes:

Brees (love him @ home)

Pierce (Cleveland run D stinks)

Murray (he's hot, and STL run D is mediocre)

Calvin

Keenan Allen (somehow I can't shake that he's due, hope Buffalo focuses on Gates)

Brandin Cooks (usually avoid a QB/WR hookup in cash games, but I figure the Saints will unload this weekend)

Larry Donnell (lunchpail TE if there ever was one)

Robbie Gould

Houston D

 
So the goal is put in a risky high reward lineup for tournaments? If I'm reading some of these comments right, and a more "safe" lineup in h2h and 50/50's?

 
So the goal is put in a risky high reward lineup for tournaments? If I'm reading some of these comments right, and a more "safe" lineup in h2h and 50/50's?
Yes, the theory is that you need to beat only half the field in cash games, but the whole field in gpps.

 
I'm liking my lineup this week, Rodgers should go off, and after what Jordy did to the Jets, I can't see Brandon Marshall not having a great game.

Rodgers

Khiry Robinson

Joique Bell

Brandon Marshall

Randall Cobb

Mike Wallace

Zach Ertz

Shayne Graham

Patriots
Not a bad lineup, but remember.....Jordy did what he did to the jets because they were up 18 points on the Packers, forcing them to completely abandon the run very very early in the game.

 
Fanduel cash lineup:

Cassel vs NO - I could throw for 2-3 TDs on the Saints, and they should be throwing all day; great value here

Morris vs PHL - Iggles give up the run...thats what they do

Bradshaw vs Jax - solid value for an RB2

C. Johnson vs GB - gonna be one of those games for Megatron

Patterson vs NO - see above

Benjamin vs PIT - last chance to start this guy below $7K

Graham vs MIN - overpaying here, but can do so with the value saved from other positions

Parkey vs WAS - 80 degree day in Philly, and Iggles struggle a bit in the red zone

Bengals vs TEN - If the Titans struggled last week against Dallas...this is a gift here

 
Someone please convince me to not start Hoyer in all my 50/50s this week. $5800 on fanduel so all you're looking for is 11 points. What's the worst he could put up, 5? With stacked everything else, easily made up.

 
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Someone please convince me to not start Hoyer in all my 50/50s this week. $5800 on fanduel so all you're looking for is 11 points. What's the worst he could put up, 5? With stacked everything else, easily made up.
Week 1: S. Hill

Week 2: J. Locker

 
So the goal is put in a risky high reward lineup for tournaments? If I'm reading some of these comments right, and a more "safe" lineup in h2h and 50/50's?
Yes. Conceptually, a 120 point performance is pretty much the same as an 80 point performance in the massive tournaments -- out of the money. On the flip side, the value of a 180 point performance won't be significantly greater (if it is at all) than a 120 point performance in H2H and 50/50 -- both will generally win the exact same amount of money.

 
Thinking of going w/ this for my Thursday cash game lineup. Poke holes:

Brees (love him @ home)

Pierce (Cleveland run D stinks)

Murray (he's hot, and STL run D is mediocre)

Calvin

Keenan Allen (somehow I can't shake that he's due, hope Buffalo focuses on Gates)

Brandin Cooks (usually avoid a QB/WR hookup in cash games, but I figure the Saints will unload this weekend)

Larry Donnell (lunchpail TE if there ever was one)

Robbie Gould

Houston D
Looks like a lot of risk in Allen and Cooks for a cash game. At least for my taste. But I like the rest.

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
Very new to all of this. Played a small handful of FD contests in week 1 and 2 to try to get a handle on how it works. I'm going to play a larger number of contests (still low-dollar) to try to get a realistic handle on my winning percentage moving forward. Basically still in data-gathering stages. That said, I would still like to not spend a ton in this stage.

My query is not about specific plays -- there's more than enough information out there on that. It's more about risk allocation and hedging.

My question involves the number of lineups to play. Obviously my big tournament lineup is different from my cash game lineups, no need to discuss that. My exposure in those massive shots in the dark will remain very limited for the time being. I'm focusing more on my play in leagues, H2H, and 50/50. I'm currently looking at spreading my play around in a matrix, 6 H2H, 1 20-team league, and 2 50/50 (in addition to my single big tournament).

This is my first foray into a 20-team league. What type of score should I target to expect a 60% "win" (finishing in the money) percentage in that format? Does it tend to mirror the 50/50 play, or bigger scores?

Additionally, what do most guys do in terms of lineups for H2H and 50/50 when spread out in 9 contests?
1) In a 20-team league, you should treat it the same as you would for a 1000-team league--the distribution of scores will still mimic a bell-shaped curve, meaning that you will need a fairly high score to place. I shoot for 180 points when entering anything that is not a 'cash game.'

2) If you enter multiple lineups into cash games, you certainly reduce your risk, but you also reduce your upside in the process. I recommend no more than three cash lineups, but personally feel that two is better if you want to enter multiple lineups. Remember that, assuming there are optimal plays, you will be making less optimal lineups when you stray from your original selections.

I talk a little about multiple lineups as a hedge in my "DFS for Dummies" series here:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=14johnlee_DFS4Dummies_Part4
Thanks for the information. I read the entire DFS for Dummies series previously, lots of great information for us dummies.

I wasn't sure how the 20-team leagues tend to play out given the comparatively few players in each. I could envision the typical play there being a bit of a hedge off of the "swing for the fences" lineup used in the massive tournaments with variance being what it is and the relatively small pool of competitors. On the other hand if 130 or so is a useless outcome the majority of the time, then hedging off of that lineup seems misplaced.

I also wasn't sure at what point you recognize a benefit from the multiple cash game lineups. I mean, I think I'm 100% right with my predictions 100% of the time. History shows that my actual performance is a little less than that tho :lol: . Hedging when I'm only playing 3 cash games seems silly unless I'm throwing darts. Hedging if I'm playing 30 cash games seems smart regardless of how good I actually am. That 9ish range seems less clear to me.

 
My plan was to completely fade tonights game but if Martin is ruled out, Rainey becomes a very interesting play against a very poor falcons DT.

 
My plan was to completely fade tonights game but if Martin is ruled out, Rainey becomes a very interesting play against a very poor falcons DT.
Agreed 100%. The only mitigating factor I see is if Atlanta hangs a quick 17-21 up.
I am going to go "anti-fade" for a buck or two tonight, and see what happens. Most likely, the game will end up with a 13-10 final score, and I will never abandon the "fade Thursday game" strategy again...Lmao!

Tampa's D-line is down 3 starters. Even with the Falcon's missing their starting OT's, I can see Ryan having plenty of time to find Julio downfield for a few big plays. Verner can only cover him for so long. I see that some people who played the Mon-Thursday contests already have Julio in their lineups. I believe they will be rewarded big-time.

From everything I have read, Martin will not play tonight either, making Rainey a huge risk/reward value. 100 total yards would appear to be Rainey's floor, but I could be completely wrong.

 
There are a ton of cheap WRs that could put up big numbers. This is DraftKings.

$3k - Malcolm Floyd vs BUF - best red zone option, had a great week 1, BUF secondary weak.

$3k - Hunter .. big game has to come sometime, right?

$5.4k - Colston ... weak VIK secondary and I think they over-correct for not getting him a catch last week. He's my 2 TD+ shot this week.

$3.6k - Dobson ... like Hunter, at some point he's going to get 1-2 60-yard TD bombs in a game and blow up. Throw Hilton on this list too.

VJAX is most likely to blow up this week but he isn't on a Sunday game.

 
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This is my first shot at this. Please critique if anything stands out one way or the other.

In Fanduel 50/50:

Manuel

Bernard

Bradshaw

Calvin

Edelman

Quick

Graham

Graham

NE
I like it and am thinking about stealing it.

I'm not a big fan of Quick, but the rest look really good. I'd prefer Wheaton or Tate to Quick. And you don't have to use all 60,000, just ask Peyton Marino. ;)

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
Very new to all of this. Played a small handful of FD contests in week 1 and 2 to try to get a handle on how it works. I'm going to play a larger number of contests (still low-dollar) to try to get a realistic handle on my winning percentage moving forward. Basically still in data-gathering stages. That said, I would still like to not spend a ton in this stage.

My query is not about specific plays -- there's more than enough information out there on that. It's more about risk allocation and hedging.

My question involves the number of lineups to play. Obviously my big tournament lineup is different from my cash game lineups, no need to discuss that. My exposure in those massive shots in the dark will remain very limited for the time being. I'm focusing more on my play in leagues, H2H, and 50/50. I'm currently looking at spreading my play around in a matrix, 6 H2H, 1 20-team league, and 2 50/50 (in addition to my single big tournament).

This is my first foray into a 20-team league. What type of score should I target to expect a 60% "win" (finishing in the money) percentage in that format? Does it tend to mirror the 50/50 play, or bigger scores?

Additionally, what do most guys do in terms of lineups for H2H and 50/50 when spread out in 9 contests?
1) In a 20-team league, you should treat it the same as you would for a 1000-team league--the distribution of scores will still mimic a bell-shaped curve, meaning that you will need a fairly high score to place. I shoot for 180 points when entering anything that is not a 'cash game.'

2) If you enter multiple lineups into cash games, you certainly reduce your risk, but you also reduce your upside in the process. I recommend no more than three cash lineups, but personally feel that two is better if you want to enter multiple lineups. Remember that, assuming there are optimal plays, you will be making less optimal lineups when you stray from your original selections.

I talk a little about multiple lineups as a hedge in my "DFS for Dummies" series here:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=14johnlee_DFS4Dummies_Part4
John - How about 3, 5, 10 man leagues? Do you lean toward a GPP style higher risk/reward lineup or the "cash" game H2H.
With 3- and 5-man leagues, you can pretty much stick with your cash game lineups (i.e., low risk) because most of the other guys will be doing the same.

With 10-man leagues, you want to take calculated risks on guys who you perceive to have high floors and high ceilings. For example, I have a hunch that Roddy White has a big night tonight; he is lining up against Johnathan Banks, who is currently ranked next-to-last among cornerbacks in the NFL. I see his floor around 5-70-0 and his ceiling around 8-140-2...so he should score between 12 and 34 points on DraftKings, which is fair for his $5900 salary. If you roster him in a 10-man and get 12 points, you're not in a great position, but you're not mathematically eliminated; if he gets those 34 points, you're sitting in prime position to pull down the whole thing.

 
Do any of guys have a preference in 50/50's for larger or smaller fields? I prefer larger field because even if I score only slightly better than the average weekly score I'm very likely to cash while in smaller fields the standard deviation is larger. Of course inversely if I'm just under the average I'm almost guaranteed not to cash. Guess I prefer to bet on being above the mean than below it.

 
This is my first shot at this. Please critique if anything stands out one way or the other.

In Fanduel 50/50:

Manuel

Bernard

Bradshaw

Calvin

Edelman

Quick

Graham

Graham

NE
I like it and am thinking about stealing it.

I'm not a big fan of Quick, but the rest look really good. I'd prefer Wheaton or Tate to Quick. And you don't have to use all 60,000, just ask Peyton Marino. ;)
Definitely like Tate a lot more than Quick, especially in a cash game lineup.

 
I normally fade the Thurs games, but tonight looks a little juicy for me so I am going to throw out this lineup:

QB Ryan

RB Rainey

RB Bernard

WR Julio

WR A Johnson

WR Wallace

TE Donell

PK Graham

D Pats

Only going to play a couple so we will see how it goes.

ETA: Thought about throwing White in there, but injury risk scares me a bit so I will go with the higher Julio.

 
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I am popping my cherry tonight with Fanduel. My set 50/50 lineup so far....

QB Ryan - Different world in the dome at home.

RB Rainey - No Martin tonight presumably

RB Donald Brown - Little nervous about travel but bills run D is mediocre

WR Jordy - Gonna be fireworks at DET

WR Cobb- See above

WR Wallace- KC getting torched of late

TE Ertz- Stud at good price

D Cincy at home vs Tenn...yes please

K Crosby- strong leg in a dome on clicking offense

 
No one should have Knile in any Thursday starts imo. Everyone should have Rainey.
On draftkings I currently have both but will odviously switch out Knile if it turns out Charles will play. If that decision isn't made though til gametime Id probably have to switch him out before the 1 PM games start or I would be stuck with limited options.
 
Found it quite diff to navigate all these friggen injuries this week. If you play it safe (regardless whether you fade Thurs or not), are you going in more than normal today hoping others are trotting out the AJ Green's of the league?

 
For some reason I'm cared off by the Head-to-Head tourneys on DraftKings because all of the matchups have named opponents who appear to be ringers based on their RotoGrinders profiles. Why would I want to throw money to the wolves like that?


No one should have Knile in any Thursday starts imo. Everyone should have Rainey.
Don't certain Thursday games allow for lineup adjustments? I only ask because I was in a Thursday tourney last week (netting nice points from Le'Veon Bell in the loss to the Ravens) and noticed a bunch of folks on the leaderboard for that league on Sunday night with Asiata on their rosters... which clearly would not have been the case if rosters locked on Thursday before the ADP news broke.

 
Found it quite diff to navigate all these friggen injuries this week. If you play it safe (regardless whether you fade Thurs or not), are you going in more than normal today hoping others are trotting out the AJ Green's of the league?
This is the kind of week where you avoid all injury risks and question marks, letting other people take them.

 
Found it quite diff to navigate all these friggen injuries this week. If you play it safe (regardless whether you fade Thurs or not), are you going in more than normal today hoping others are trotting out the AJ Green's of the league?
This is the kind of week where you avoid all injury risks and question marks, letting other people take them.
Correct...but the point of my post is...are you putting more money on the line on the contests that start today, steering clear of anyone in a questionable situation, hoping others are using Knile, Green, etc? I don't remember alot of weeks this funky last year. Maybe it's just me.

My Sunday starting contest lineups are always safe of injury because we can update them.

 
These Rainey/Khiry lineups I'm coming up with look loaded. Can't produce this lineup on Sunday because Rainey at that cost is tough to replace.

 
Bobcat10 said:
These Rainey/Khiry lineups I'm coming up with look loaded. Can't produce this lineup on Sunday because Rainey at that cost is tough to replace.
for fanduel, i'm liking a GPP lineup of

QB Matt Stafford

RB Stevan Ridley

RB Khiry Robinson

WR Calvin Johnson

WR Jordy Nelson

WR Brandon Marshall

TE Niles Paul

K Robbie Gould

DEF Chargers

Assuming Marshall is back to 100%.

 
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Bobcat10 said:
These Rainey/Khiry lineups I'm coming up with look loaded. Can't produce this lineup on Sunday because Rainey at that cost is tough to replace.
for fanduel, i'm liking a GPP lineup of QB Matt Stafford

RB Stevan Ridley

RB Khiry Robinson

WR Calvin Johnson

WR Jordy Nelson

WR Brandon Marshall

TE Niles Paul

K Robbie Gould

DEF Chargers

Assuming Marshall is back to 100%.
This is crazy close to one of my lineups
 
Bobcat10 said:
These Rainey/Khiry lineups I'm coming up with look loaded. Can't produce this lineup on Sunday because Rainey at that cost is tough to replace.
for fanduel, i'm liking a GPP lineup of QB Matt Stafford

RB Stevan Ridley

RB Khiry Robinson

WR Calvin Johnson

WR Jordy Nelson

WR Brandon Marshall

TE Niles Paul

K Robbie Gould

DEF Chargers

Assuming Marshall is back to 100%.
This is crazy close to one of my lineups
Some overlap for me too.

Luck

Stafford

Ryan

Brees = about 25% each

Gio = 50%

Jennings = 50%

PThomas = 50%

Khiry = 25%

Ridley = 25%

AJohnson = 50%

Jordy = 50%

Calvin

Hawk

Wallace

Maclin

Watkins

Julio

Tate = about 25% each

Donnell = 50%

Graham = 25%

Ertz = 25%

BTW, does anyone know of an app or excel function where we could input certain plays we'd like to have in lineups, and it would spit a few unique lineups? The biggest pain I have is knowing I'd like to get money on certain players, but fitting together the puzzles of having a few unique lineups with SOME overlapping players and yet not loading up more than about 50% on any one player. I'm imagining something similar to the function Tremblay uses to create the On The Daily table.

 
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Bobcat10 said:
These Rainey/Khiry lineups I'm coming up with look loaded. Can't produce this lineup on Sunday because Rainey at that cost is tough to replace.
for fanduel, i'm liking a GPP lineup of QB Matt Stafford

RB Stevan Ridley

RB Khiry Robinson

WR Calvin Johnson

WR Jordy Nelson

WR Brandon Marshall

TE Niles Paul

K Robbie Gould

DEF Chargers

Assuming Marshall is back to 100%.
This is crazy close to one of my lineups
Some overlap for me too.

Luck

Stafford

Ryan

Brees = about 25% each

Gio = 50%

Jennings = 50%

PThomas = 50%

Khiry = 25%

Ridley = 25%

AJohnson = 50%

Jordy = 50%

Calvin

Hawk

Wallace

Maclin

Watkins

Julio

Tate = about 25% each

Donnell = 50%

Graham = 25%

Ertz = 25%

BTW, does anyone know of an app or excel function where we could input certain plays we'd like to have in lineups, and it would spit a few unique lineups? The biggest pain I have is knowing I'd like to get money on certain players, but fitting together the puzzles of having a few unique lineups with SOME overlapping players and yet not loading up more than about 50% on any one player. I'm imagining something similar to the function Tremblay uses to create the On The Daily table.
There isn't one readily available, but I know several pros who do exactly this--they enter their projections and let the software spit out the lineups. It's all based on C++ programming...I've seen the output and it's impressive.

[And, no, I don't use one.]

 
Bobcat10 said:
These Rainey/Khiry lineups I'm coming up with look loaded. Can't produce this lineup on Sunday because Rainey at that cost is tough to replace.
for fanduel, i'm liking a GPP lineup of QB Matt Stafford

RB Stevan Ridley

RB Khiry Robinson

WR Calvin Johnson

WR Jordy Nelson

WR Brandon Marshall

TE Niles Paul

K Robbie Gould

DEF Chargers

Assuming Marshall is back to 100%.
This is crazy close to one of my lineups
Some overlap for me too.

Luck

Stafford

Ryan

Brees = about 25% each

Gio = 50%

Jennings = 50%

PThomas = 50%

Khiry = 25%

Ridley = 25%

AJohnson = 50%

Jordy = 50%

Calvin

Hawk

Wallace

Maclin

Watkins

Julio

Tate = about 25% each

Donnell = 50%

Graham = 25%

Ertz = 25%

BTW, does anyone know of an app or excel function where we could input certain plays we'd like to have in lineups, and it would spit a few unique lineups? The biggest pain I have is knowing I'd like to get money on certain players, but fitting together the puzzles of having a few unique lineups with SOME overlapping players and yet not loading up more than about 50% on any one player. I'm imagining something similar to the function Tremblay uses to create the On The Daily table.
There isn't one readily available, but I know several pros who do exactly this--they enter their projections and let the software spit out the lineups. It's all based on C++ programming...I've seen the output and it's impressive.

[And, no, I don't use one.]
Excel has an optimization add-in but is limited to 200 variables

 
Bobcat10 said:
These Rainey/Khiry lineups I'm coming up with look loaded. Can't produce this lineup on Sunday because Rainey at that cost is tough to replace.
for fanduel, i'm liking a GPP lineup of QB Matt Stafford

RB Stevan Ridley

RB Khiry Robinson

WR Calvin Johnson

WR Jordy Nelson

WR Brandon Marshall

TE Niles Paul

K Robbie Gould

DEF Chargers

Assuming Marshall is back to 100%.
This is crazy close to one of my lineups
Some overlap for me too.

Luck

Stafford

Ryan

Brees = about 25% each

Gio = 50%

Jennings = 50%

PThomas = 50%

Khiry = 25%

Ridley = 25%

AJohnson = 50%

Jordy = 50%

Calvin

Hawk

Wallace

Maclin

Watkins

Julio

Tate = about 25% each

Donnell = 50%

Graham = 25%

Ertz = 25%

BTW, does anyone know of an app or excel function where we could input certain plays we'd like to have in lineups, and it would spit a few unique lineups? The biggest pain I have is knowing I'd like to get money on certain players, but fitting together the puzzles of having a few unique lineups with SOME overlapping players and yet not loading up more than about 50% on any one player. I'm imagining something similar to the function Tremblay uses to create the On The Daily table.
There isn't one readily available, but I know several pros who do exactly this--they enter their projections and let the software spit out the lineups. It's all based on C++ programming...I've seen the output and it's impressive.

[And, no, I don't use one.]
Excel has an optimization add-in but is limited to 200 variables
I run this at times and it's a lot of brute force to make different lineups.

 

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