Tennessee_ATO said:
Very new to all of this. Played a small handful of FD contests in week 1 and 2 to try to get a handle on how it works. I'm going to play a larger number of contests (still low-dollar) to try to get a realistic handle on my winning percentage moving forward. Basically still in data-gathering stages. That said, I would still like to not spend a ton in this stage.
My query is not about specific plays -- there's more than enough information out there on that. It's more about risk allocation and hedging.
My question involves the number of lineups to play. Obviously my big tournament lineup is different from my cash game lineups, no need to discuss that. My exposure in those massive shots in the dark will remain very limited for the time being. I'm focusing more on my play in leagues, H2H, and 50/50. I'm currently looking at spreading my play around in a matrix, 6 H2H, 1 20-team league, and 2 50/50 (in addition to my single big tournament).
This is my first foray into a 20-team league. What type of score should I target to expect a 60% "win" (finishing in the money) percentage in that format? Does it tend to mirror the 50/50 play, or bigger scores?
Additionally, what do most guys do in terms of lineups for H2H and 50/50 when spread out in 9 contests?
1) In a 20-team league, you should treat it the same as you would for a 1000-team league--the distribution of scores will still mimic a bell-shaped curve, meaning that you will need a fairly high score to place. I shoot for 180 points when entering anything that is not a 'cash game.'
2) If you enter multiple lineups into cash games, you certainly reduce your risk, but you also reduce your upside in the process. I recommend
no more than three cash lineups, but personally feel that two is better if you want to enter multiple lineups. Remember that, assuming there are optimal plays, you will be making less optimal lineups when you stray from your original selections.
I talk a little about multiple lineups as a hedge in my "DFS for Dummies" series here:
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=14johnlee_DFS4Dummies_Part4