reel_smooth
Footballguy
Sounds like a good plan - will keep that in mind.
I've got my GPP placeholders that I'll work on later.
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Fanduel Week 3 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter KarmaPolice
- Start date
I've got my GPP placeholders that I'll work on later.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I put in a .25 entry where I simply went for the guys who have the most points this year (or as close as I can afford)
smith hunt/Monty Nelson/Evans/reek witten tavecchio/ravens
I keep seeing cousins popping up and am wondering why he will suddenly turn it around (I like cousins, I'm an MSU fan). Then I thought "why not play the guys who have been killing it this year, why will they suddenly drop off?" Crabtree was actually the highest scoring wr but 3 td game is an anomaly and if he's got Norman on him I don't want any.
smith hunt/Monty Nelson/Evans/reek witten tavecchio/ravens
I keep seeing cousins popping up and am wondering why he will suddenly turn it around (I like cousins, I'm an MSU fan). Then I thought "why not play the guys who have been killing it this year, why will they suddenly drop off?" Crabtree was actually the highest scoring wr but 3 td game is an anomaly and if he's got Norman on him I don't want any.
Vector
Footballguy
Just thought I'd drop this on everyone.... I'm probably going to play Cordarelle Patterson this week as a low cost / high reward WR this week. Carr seems to like him and they are designing plays for him. With Crabs and Cooper getting all the attention he will probably return his cost quite well. That will leave me with at least a grand to apply to a top end WR, QB or RB.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Not sure about Brady, but that is the case every week. I have a Brady/Cooks stack because I like to take a shot on somebody that burned people the week before.
As for Stafford, I think that game has the best shot at a shoot out for the week, so I would like somebody from the other side too. Something like Stafford/Tate + Julio or Stafford/Ebron + Julio.
As far as other ideas besides those 2 QBs I like that Wash/Oak game and had Carr/Cook + Pryor written down. For even lower % plays stuff like: Rivers/T.Williams, Siemian/D.Thomas, Wentz/Alshon (if Jenkins is still out), and Ryan/Coleman were written down as ideas for me as well.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Also, if you don't like Brady's targets, you could just do a naked Brady 
LU and do a RB/Def stack too. Henry/Tenn, McCaffrey/Car, etc.
and could even throw in pairs from other games: Brady - Henry/Hunt - Tate/Julio/Pryor - Cooks - K, Tenn. (not sure about how the $ work, just throwing crap out there). That's an odd LU by default b/c you don't have the QB with the WR stacks, but still have access to the high scoring games.
ETA: or as we saw in Week 1, a stackless LU can take top scores too.
LU and do a RB/Def stack too. Henry/Tenn, McCaffrey/Car, etc. and could even throw in pairs from other games: Brady - Henry/Hunt - Tate/Julio/Pryor - Cooks - K, Tenn. (not sure about how the $ work, just throwing crap out there). That's an odd LU by default b/c you don't have the QB with the WR stacks, but still have access to the high scoring games.
ETA: or as we saw in Week 1, a stackless LU can take top scores too.
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Vector
Footballguy
I think we'll see more and more that a QB/WR stack is not as valuable as before as the top QB's spread the ball more and more.Also, if you don't like Brady's targets, you could just do a naked Brady
and could even throw in pairs from other games: Brady - Henry/Hunt - Tate/Julio/Pryor - Cooks - K, Tenn. (not sure about how the $ work, just throwing crap out there). That's an odd LU by default b/c you don't have the QB with the WR stacks, but still have access to the high scoring games.
ETA: or as we saw in Week 1, a stackless LU can take top scores too.
eta: And it follows that finding that top performing QB becomes more and more imperative
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lmack
Footballguy
Also, if you don't like Brady's targets, you could just do a naked Brady
and could even throw in pairs from other games: Brady - Henry/Hunt - Tate/Julio/Pryor - Cooks - K, Tenn. (not sure about how the $ work, just throwing crap out there). That's an odd LU by default b/c you don't have the QB with the WR stacks, but still have access to the high scoring games.
ETA: or as we saw in Week 1, a stackless LU can take top scores too.
Been messing with these all day -- here's what I'm sitting on for cash+.
No QB + target stack but a lot of correlated plays. Brady + Gillislee and AJG/Adams in LU1, Stafford/Sanu and Crabtree/Pryor in the other.
Brady, Hunt/Gillislee, AJG/Adams/Funchess, Kelce, Gano, Eagles
Stafford, Ajayi/TyMont, Crabtree/Pryor/Sanu, Ertz, Gost, Pats
Vector
Footballguy
Did you see my previous post?
I see you have Crab's a couple times these, have you considered Patterson as a cheaper option?
Snorkelson
Footballguy
For Gpp you may as well stack Stafford with golladay. All the WRs burned people last week as Stafford only threw for 122 yds, a career low. They used 2 te sets and ran a lot. Ebron got involved. No need to take shots downfield and they were not in the red zone a lot, so Kenny g didn't get a lot of run. In a game where they will have to score some points and take some shots downfield I like golladay to get a couple of those chances.
reel_smooth
Footballguy
Another in the 'FWIW' department - Sam Bradford ruled out for Sunday; Case Keenum will start again.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Yes/No. Obviously each week and slate are different entities, but I don think it matter a little who ends up going off. You could see somebody like Brady going off for 350 and 4 tds, and having 5 guys get 60-70yds and the tds to 4 different guys. Then a stack probably wouldn't do much if you have Brady. You need the day where you happen to get the one guy that gets 130yds and 2tds when he goes off. However there are teams that are a bit more focused as far as pass distribution goes, and we saw that last week. A guy like Siemian happens to go off, it's a pretty good chance that either Thomas or Sanders or both have the production since they eat up about 60% of the passes themselves.I think we'll see more and more that a QB/WR stack is not as valuable as before as the top QB's spread the ball more and more.
eta: And it follows that finding that top performing QB becomes more and more imperative
Vector
Footballguy
I see your point. But in reference to Siemian, if he goes "off" it is most likely due to gameplan and not an underlying burning desire to excel.
daddo39
Footballguy
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reel_smooth
Footballguy
Current GPP L/U's, two $1 & two $.25:
QB/Brady, RB/Lynch - J. White, WR/A. Brown - AJ Green - D. Hopkins, TE/Ebron, K/Hopkins, DEF/PHL
QB/A. Smith, RB/Freeman - J. Stewart, WR/B. Cooks - T. Hill - K. Allen, TE/Kelce, K/J. Elliott, DEF/CAR
QB/Wentz, RB/Ajayi - T. Montgomery, WR/A. Cooper - B. Cooks - N. Agholor, TE/Ertz, K/Prater, DEF/MIA
QB/Stafford, RB/K. Hunt - D. Henry, WR/J. Jones - G.Tate - K. Benjamin, TE/V. Davis, K/Succop, DEF/NE
QB/Brady, RB/Lynch - J. White, WR/A. Brown - AJ Green - D. Hopkins, TE/Ebron, K/Hopkins, DEF/PHL
QB/A. Smith, RB/Freeman - J. Stewart, WR/B. Cooks - T. Hill - K. Allen, TE/Kelce, K/J. Elliott, DEF/CAR
QB/Wentz, RB/Ajayi - T. Montgomery, WR/A. Cooper - B. Cooks - N. Agholor, TE/Ertz, K/Prater, DEF/MIA
QB/Stafford, RB/K. Hunt - D. Henry, WR/J. Jones - G.Tate - K. Benjamin, TE/V. Davis, K/Succop, DEF/NE
Snorkelson
Footballguy
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
F-it. I have 7 gpps and 4 are Brady-Cooks.
I have the Thurs-Mon that has the M.Thomas/Funchess combo, one is a mix, and one is a Det/AtL+KC/SD game combos. That one is:
Brady - Coleman/Riddick - Cooks/M.Thomas/K.Allen - Kelce - Tavecc - NE
For some reason I keep gravitating to that SD/KC game and my other one might have a combo from that too.
I also have a Wentz stack: Wentz - TyMont/Lynch - OBJ/Green/D.Jax - Ertz - Bryant - Tenn
Not sure on the last couple yet.
I have the Thurs-Mon that has the M.Thomas/Funchess combo, one is a mix, and one is a Det/AtL+KC/SD game combos. That one is:
Brady - Coleman/Riddick - Cooks/M.Thomas/K.Allen - Kelce - Tavecc - NE
For some reason I keep gravitating to that SD/KC game and my other one might have a combo from that too.
I also have a Wentz stack: Wentz - TyMont/Lynch - OBJ/Green/D.Jax - Ertz - Bryant - Tenn
Not sure on the last couple yet.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
How about some crowdsourcing feedback on my exposure percentages?
24 GPP entries (75% of them the $1 variety) on FD....I've never bothered doing the percentages before....
QB
Aaron Rodgers 21%
Derek Carr 13%
Jay Cutler 13%
Matt Ryan 13%
Matt Stafford 13%
Tom Brady 8%
Alex Smith 4%
Andy Dalton 4%
Roethlisberger 4%
Jameis Winston 4%
Kirk Cousins 4%
Some obvious missing names....dont care for the PHI / NYG or CAR / NOR division matchups for GPP production....Rivers, Siemian, Wilson could work but I'm shying away also.
Cutler exposure is unconventional....I like the "Jets get blown out" scenario. My higher dollar GPP entries are built on Packers blowout and Falcons/Lions shootout.
RB
Ty Montgomery 17%
Mike Gillislee 15%
Devonta Freeman 10%
Jacquizz R 10%
Jay Ajayi 10%
C.J. Anderson 8%
Kareem Hunt 6%
Chris Thompson 4%
Le'Veon Bell 4%
Marshawn Lynch 4%
Chris Carson 2%
Derrick Henry 2%
Giovani Bernard 2%
James White 2%
Tevin Coleman 2%
I don't see Jacquizz getting a lot of press ahead of Case Keenum (short fields expected). CJ Anderson underappreciated bell cow.
I should probably have more Ajai exposure....ditto Carson and Henry (one of them will have a big day....Carson I'm guessing).
WR
Davante Adams 11%
Golden Tate 8%
Jordy Nelson 8%
Julio Jones 7%
Brandon Coleman 6%
DeVante Parker 6%
M Crabtree 6%
Antonio Brown 4%
E Sanders 4%
Kenny Golladay 4%
Kenny Stills 4%
Tyreek Hill 4%
A.J. Green 3%
Amari Cooper 3%
Brandin Cooks 3%
Danny Amendola 3%
Keenan Allen 3%
O Beckham Jr. 3%
Rashard Higgins 3%
DeSean Jackson 1%
Jamison Crowder 1%
Markus Wheaton 1%
Marvin Jones 1%
Mike Evans 1%
Tyrell Williams 1%
Sometimes I think I should be concentrating my WR exposure more.....its hard to break out of the mindset of diversification with WRs.
Curious to see if Brandon Coleman becomes a reliable TD producer. May be unfairly writing off Cobb and the Steelers receivers this week as "meh".
TE
Travis Kelce 29%
Austin Hooper 13%
Rob Gronkowski 13%
Ed Dickson 8%
Hunter Henry 8%
Jared Cook 8%
Martellus B 8%
Jesse James 4%
Julius Thomas 4%
Zach Ertz 4%
Adjustment coming....too much Kelce and not enough Cook and Ertz I think.
24 GPP entries (75% of them the $1 variety) on FD....I've never bothered doing the percentages before....
QB
Aaron Rodgers 21%
Derek Carr 13%
Jay Cutler 13%
Matt Ryan 13%
Matt Stafford 13%
Tom Brady 8%
Alex Smith 4%
Andy Dalton 4%
Roethlisberger 4%
Jameis Winston 4%
Kirk Cousins 4%
Some obvious missing names....dont care for the PHI / NYG or CAR / NOR division matchups for GPP production....Rivers, Siemian, Wilson could work but I'm shying away also.
Cutler exposure is unconventional....I like the "Jets get blown out" scenario. My higher dollar GPP entries are built on Packers blowout and Falcons/Lions shootout.
RB
Ty Montgomery 17%
Mike Gillislee 15%
Devonta Freeman 10%
Jacquizz R 10%
Jay Ajayi 10%
C.J. Anderson 8%
Kareem Hunt 6%
Chris Thompson 4%
Le'Veon Bell 4%
Marshawn Lynch 4%
Chris Carson 2%
Derrick Henry 2%
Giovani Bernard 2%
James White 2%
Tevin Coleman 2%
I don't see Jacquizz getting a lot of press ahead of Case Keenum (short fields expected). CJ Anderson underappreciated bell cow.
I should probably have more Ajai exposure....ditto Carson and Henry (one of them will have a big day....Carson I'm guessing).
WR
Davante Adams 11%
Golden Tate 8%
Jordy Nelson 8%
Julio Jones 7%
Brandon Coleman 6%
DeVante Parker 6%
M Crabtree 6%
Antonio Brown 4%
E Sanders 4%
Kenny Golladay 4%
Kenny Stills 4%
Tyreek Hill 4%
A.J. Green 3%
Amari Cooper 3%
Brandin Cooks 3%
Danny Amendola 3%
Keenan Allen 3%
O Beckham Jr. 3%
Rashard Higgins 3%
DeSean Jackson 1%
Jamison Crowder 1%
Markus Wheaton 1%
Marvin Jones 1%
Mike Evans 1%
Tyrell Williams 1%
Sometimes I think I should be concentrating my WR exposure more.....its hard to break out of the mindset of diversification with WRs.
Curious to see if Brandon Coleman becomes a reliable TD producer. May be unfairly writing off Cobb and the Steelers receivers this week as "meh".
TE
Travis Kelce 29%
Austin Hooper 13%
Rob Gronkowski 13%
Ed Dickson 8%
Hunter Henry 8%
Jared Cook 8%
Martellus B 8%
Jesse James 4%
Julius Thomas 4%
Zach Ertz 4%
Adjustment coming....too much Kelce and not enough Cook and Ertz I think.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
My notes say add some Engram, Walker and Amendola.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I like the Brady lineup...Coleman AND Thomas aggressive and unique....I struggled to add Riddick to my lineups / feel like I should have more exposure to him..
One of my $7 GPPs is a KC/LAC stack with Smith, Hunt, Hill, Kelce and Allen....Smith has good history / Rivers has bad history in this matchup.
I'm fading PHI / NYG matchup other than some Ertz and OBJ exposure....but division matchups are lottery picks could be 6-3 or 42-35 (aaarghh!).
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Trying to get cheap at qb I find cutler on my radar. At jets in warm weather, cutler and Parker make a good arguement to be in a couple lineups. Kearse keeps popping in as well, he is earning mccowns trust and is 5800, it doesn't take of action to pay off for cash or Gpp. Those guys with hooper or ebron and you can pretty much afford whoever else you want. Cj Anderson also seems like a solid bet to get a lot of touches at 6900, and with dewayne washington out for Detroit, I'm wondering if Abdullah will get those extra looks or if zenner will be active.
Now I see my cutty exposure may not be so unique..
Now I see my cutty exposure may not be so unique..
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
My personal opinion is that you might want to think about either trimming down on the number of players, OR taking more of a stand on a couple of players at each positions. I think it might be limiting your upside a bit. Example: you have 18 WRs at 3% or less, and nobody over 20%. If I were doing this with 24 LUs, I would probably have something like:
(assuming you like to have the # of players in your pool that you have above)
2 QBs at 25%, 3 at 10%, and 5 in single digits. (maybe something similar to your TE exposures)
Not smart enough to do the math for positions like RB and WR that have multiple starters, but I would take a stand on a couple lower owned guys and jump up the % a bit.
Just my
Also, I know it's beating a dead horse, but if you can find some sort of ownership % estimates on the cheap, that would really help with your decisions. Since they are free this week, I will talk specifics. Adams and Parker are two of your top WRs, so I am guessing you like them a bit. They are chalky, and have projections of 17% and 15% ownership. So in gpps, if you REALLY like them this week, you know that you need to be over those %s for your exposure to keep ahead of the field. A lot of the WRs you have listed are at or lower than their projected ownerships, so it will be really hard for you to separate from the field. (the top 10 WRs have projections of 10% or higher to give you guide, and the top 5 Rbs are 19% or higher). There are two guys in the 3% for you and the field at WR - Cooks and OBJ. If you really like one of them, that would be the perfect type of guy to bump up to 6-10% so that you stay ahead of everybody else if they hit.
** I don't have first hand experience setting exposure, this is taken from podcasts I listen to where they talk a bit about that and say stuff like "if Brown is only 10% owned this week, I am going to make sure that I have 20% of him b/c he is going to blow up". **
Long story short, I think your top end exposures for rb and WR are probably too low.
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Hell, I wrote down a McCown/Kearse + Parker stack this morning. b/c of what I posted earlier about these two pass Ds and the home underdog factor.
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SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Both your tips (concentrate choices and push exposure for preferred choices above ownership rates) are solid pieces of advice; I guess I was more interested in any player specific feedback your comments still help, so thanks.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I take it as maybe hinting at more of a close division game and less of a shootout? Car is also slowest in the league as far as pace of game, so they might be able to gind some clock by running.. At the start of the week, I was less on Cam and more on the RBs/D for Carolina, and I would say maybe the dropping total might be reflecting that too?
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Two Saints tackles out. Although both Saints starting corners are out, which should help the Panthers, Kalil is also out and Cam is gimpy.
Vegas assumes more running game. CMC and JStew are interesting but other than that, meh. I do like Coleman.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS FRIDAY INJURY REPORT
Out
T Terron Armstead (shoulder/DNP)
T Zach Strief (knee/DNP)
CB Marshon Lattimore (concussion/DNP)
CB Sterling Moore (chest/DNP)
Questionable
DE Trey Hendrickson (knee/limited)
CAROLINA PANTHERS INJURY REPORT
Out
C Ryan Kalil (neck/DNP)
LB Jeremy Cash (calf/DNP)
Questionable
QB Cam Newton (right shoulder/ankle-limited)
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I didn't see any specific players that stood out as odd or huge plays that you are missing in your player pool. Maybe B.Coleman, but that is 1 of 20+ guys, and that is what gpps are for.
JAMES!
Footballguy
In his blog Dodds saying all-in on Cam. Hey @David Dodds , this Carolina-Saints game total drop not scaring you at all? Sharps hammering under.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
mrip541
Footballguy
thespread.com-->nfl-->public bets
edit - oops that page doesn't show the over/under %. Check out oddsshark consensus picks.
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JAMES!
Footballguy
Either at the actual off-shore book or a place like covers which shows line history from a bunch of places.
A total drop in a game involving the Saints at a place like sportsbook.com (maybe the squarest of square books) sounds the alarm for me.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
looks like vegas thought panthers would win 27.5-21.5 at the open...now 26-20.5...probably the loss of Kalil at center. Vegas didn't worry about the Saints losing starting corners because defensive resistance can't go less than zero. lol.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I cannot find a QB I like for cash on the main slate. Cam is clearly the chalky play but I can't figure out why. My confidence in him is non-existent.
mrip541
Footballguy
OAK is expected to score 28.75 points, and in the first 2 weeks, 78% of yards against WAS were through the air. I'm stuck between Carr and Cam. I'm honestly kind of confused why more people aren't on Carr. I know that the going wisdom is to not pay up for qb in cash, but if Cousins ended with 11.5 points no one would be surprised, and DET's implied total is under 24.
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I kept landing on the two home dogs in the higher total games - Stafford and Cousins. Wentz was also in consideration, and might the play for me if Jenkins sits.
I ended on Stafford b/c he has a full compliment of healthy weapons for once, and it seems like Cousins is still getting used to Pryor and it looks like Reed will be out or pretty limited.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I've been looking at both these guys, but I'm just not feeling it for some reason. I guess Carr seems safer, but at $8400 I figure I need mid-20's from him. I guess that seems reasonable I guess. Stafford is home and they can't run for crap (Abdullah has really burned me in a couple season long leagues, I drank the Kool-Aid) so he should seem ok too. But he doesn't for some reason
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
History favors home QBs for production, and I think people might be a tad worried that the Wash CBs can take out the WRs for the most part - I think they have done a good job so far this year.
Cam could possibly cost me a lot of money this week, as I have 0% of him. I would be more willing to use him if the NO rush D wasn't so horrible and Car didn't like to run the ball so much. Also figured in is Brees' splits on the road outside, and if he can make Carolina pass more than they want to.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
This I why I have been thinking him or Wentz. Wentz has 0 rushing game, Jenkins could be out, and I think he has the 2nd most attempts/g in the league so far this year.
I am starting to get spooked slightly on Ajayi and if MIa will tone it down with him slightly if they are pounding the Jets. Instead of Stafford/Ajayi, I am thinking about Wentz/Hunt. Decisions, decisions...
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
To my eye Cam just isn't a very good passer. If he's not going to run much I'm not sure how much value he has.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Hunt is so frigging expensive tho. I get that he's looked great so far, but that's a leap of faith.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
At $5600, don't you almost have to have some Cohen exposure?
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Fair point. I already had Bell/Ajayi in there, and Hunt seemed like the best pivot, but might have to look at the usage more. Seems like a few of the high usage guys are in rough spots: McCoy/CjA/Cook, or played in non-main slate games. Seems like all that leaves are TyMont and the 2 Rbs in the KC/SD game. Hell, I guess even 20 touches instead of 30 vs. the Jets would probably get the job done if they decide to drop his work a tad.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
JAMES!
Footballguy
Because sharp money came in on the under. I don't know their reasoning hence my initial post. I'm guessing carolina's slow pace + all the injuries but that's just a guess.
