KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I don't even know what this or these survivor things people keep mentioning are.What's up with the FBG subscriber Fanduel contest? Why are guys with 7 points advancing? Is this season long total points? I'm confused
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Fanduel Week 6 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Snorkelson
- Start date
Raging weasel
Footballguy
Went to bed at halftime last night so missed the Texans big comeback. They got me enough points for this to cash so finished the week up $2.60.
Decided to pay up for TE this week but not for Gronk so was dragged down by Kelce, Walker and Pitta.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Wins across the board for me- lineups led by stafford/Tate and Keemun/Britt stacks, Miller/McCoy/west, got rid of my Alex smith lineups because one of you guys bolded that the wind would be gusty- which I stated would worry me, fleeners awesome rushing ability, and no ab.
yeah this is a tough one. ive been costing myself money every week lately. getting off 100% exposure just to reduce variance. this week that guy was shady. i forget who the guy was last week but it happened too. week 1 it was ware after the news of splitting carries came out. luckily the guy i pivoted to this week was miller but it still hurt bc my main cash lineup cashed 100% and my miller one didnt.
its easy to say not to tinker with your lineups on sunday morning. but the truth is thats when you have the most info and can make the best (perhaps 'most informed' is a better way of stating it?) decisions. it does suck when it doesnt work out though.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I tinkered for the win, so it goes both ways. At 12:45 I changed and at 1:00 was like "wtf are you doing?" and by 1:30 it was "you're a genius!" The moves were swapping out smith, Kelce, and Davonte Adams with keenum Britt and Fleener. Spent the extra on obj but forget who I swapped there...
StupidTravis30
Footballguy
I just wanted to say thanks to Duke Broadway for the info share. I used his Brees, Cooks, Meredith, Michael roster to win $3 in a Beginner contest.
lmack
Footballguy
With the tight pricing this week I wish I played only one lineup. Split the chalk across 2 and surprisingly it was the Alex Smith LU that had enough juice thanks to McCoy/Miller/M. Thomas. It came in at 129.16 and only cashed in 15 out of 22 contests, mostly 50/50s with some 2X.
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I will ask this again in the week 7 thread, but it's been 6 weeks of the season: Are there statements we can make with confidence about teams/players?
Ie - yes, Detroit is a sieve for Qb and Wr points. Look here for your QB and Wr (Cousins and co week 7)
SF can't stop anybody vs. the run - is Martin back after the bye?
I haven't tried a Mon-Thurs contest yet, so I threw one in today. I was looking at the schedule next week and pricing and looks to me like it will be the opposite of this week with the RBs and WRs. A lot of high $ WRs have tasty matchups - Julio, Evans, Cooper, AJ Green, maybe OBJ. Then we get lower $ guys with the Rbs having good matchups: Martin vs. SF, KC vs.NO, Hill vs. Clev, Jax vs. Oak. I think about the only must have expensive Rb might be DMurr at home vs. Indy's crap run D. Looks like it might be more fun and more variety next week...
Ie - yes, Detroit is a sieve for Qb and Wr points. Look here for your QB and Wr (Cousins and co week 7)
SF can't stop anybody vs. the run - is Martin back after the bye?
I haven't tried a Mon-Thurs contest yet, so I threw one in today. I was looking at the schedule next week and pricing and looks to me like it will be the opposite of this week with the RBs and WRs. A lot of high $ WRs have tasty matchups - Julio, Evans, Cooper, AJ Green, maybe OBJ. Then we get lower $ guys with the Rbs having good matchups: Martin vs. SF, KC vs.NO, Hill vs. Clev, Jax vs. Oak. I think about the only must have expensive Rb might be DMurr at home vs. Indy's crap run D. Looks like it might be more fun and more variety next week...
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
Thanks, but giving credit to the wrong person. I didnt have a share of cooks, and only Michael in gpp.
karmarooster
Footballguy
My main damn cash Lineup with ASmith put up 117.5 to miss the cut on 90% of my 50/50s. That lateral to Poe was the difference!
Looks like a break even week for me with $250 in play, $235 already back and 1 $5 10 person league, 3 $2 H2Hs and 6 $2 GPPs and 1 $25 GPP left.
The $25 GPP has 56.30 after Sunday night, leader has 118.58, I still have
Palmer/Forte/John Brown/Floydand Ariz def, should be a fun game tonight
Best LU of the week
162.84- Brady/McCoy/Miller/Austin/Meredith/Ginn Jr/Gronk/Barth/Buff
Second
154.84-Brady/McCoy/West/Cooks/Wallace/Landry/Jthomas/Gano/Tenn
2 out of 3 of my $25 Sunday Million cashed (140.44 and 150.1)
The 150.1 was anchored by a Brees/Cooks stack paired with McCoy and Buff D(DWalker could have made this a nice pay day, 2.6 points L)
The 140.44 was also one of my Cash LUs, I leaning more and more towards Cash LUs for these $25 GPPs
4 Main Cash LUs scored 140.44, 142.36, 152.16 and 100.76
The 140.44 lost 5 out of 7 $2 H2Hs
The 142.36 went 3-3 in the $2 H2Hs and the 150.1 won 25 $2 DBL ups
The 100.76 lost all 10 $2 DBL ups
The $25 GPP has 56.30 after Sunday night, leader has 118.58, I still have
Palmer/Forte/John Brown/Floydand Ariz def, should be a fun game tonight
Best LU of the week
162.84- Brady/McCoy/Miller/Austin/Meredith/Ginn Jr/Gronk/Barth/Buff
Second
154.84-Brady/McCoy/West/Cooks/Wallace/Landry/Jthomas/Gano/Tenn
2 out of 3 of my $25 Sunday Million cashed (140.44 and 150.1)
The 150.1 was anchored by a Brees/Cooks stack paired with McCoy and Buff D(DWalker could have made this a nice pay day, 2.6 points L)
The 140.44 was also one of my Cash LUs, I leaning more and more towards Cash LUs for these $25 GPPs
4 Main Cash LUs scored 140.44, 142.36, 152.16 and 100.76
The 140.44 lost 5 out of 7 $2 H2Hs
The 142.36 went 3-3 in the $2 H2Hs and the 150.1 won 25 $2 DBL ups
The 100.76 lost all 10 $2 DBL ups
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Good grief, what type of LUs are you losing to in these? I haven't done one, but I was shocked to see that 142+ barely cuts it. Those scored would have cashed in all the 3xs and 5xs I was it.
I am curious - what was the cash line on the $25 Sunday Million?
Good luck on your LUs tonight!
NixonMask
Footballguy
You'll see. Sometimes it takes a few weeks for NFL offensive coordinators to catch up to the internet forum geniuses.lol
128.16, so lower that the $2 double up apparently.
Lost
140.44 to 142.68, 149.7, 142, 151.7, 141.34
Like Nixon said the cash number for the Sunday Million was 128.16
My DBL ups cash lines were 131.40
Thanks
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Bump if anyone can help.
This has been one of the better weeks for me in my DFS history. 1/3 of my cash lineups had A. Smith and failed, but stacked the NO/CAR game elsewhere Meredith/M. Thomas in a ton of lineups with Cooks in 40%. McCoy in 100% I believe with Miller or C. Mike. Played ODB Jr. in most of my tournament lineups with my two highest scoring 170+. Considering I had Delaine and Kelce as my only TEs I'm happy with the week.
podunker
Footballguy
Very exciting week for players scoring. Lots of less owned guys going off.
Tate, Britt, Keenum, Ajayi, Wright, J. White.
Lots of other surprises.
Steelers getting beat down, Zeke going off on No. 1 Rush Defense in GB, Brock actually stepping up and winning a game, Atlanta giving Seattle all they want, Wash and KC RB situations
My thoughts on things after week 6
1. ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN FROM WEEK TO WEEK IN THE NFL. BAD TEAMS CAN WIN, GOOD TEAMS CAN LOSE.
I actually told a friend the night before that it wouldn't surprise me if Miami beat Pitt the night before. We both laughed, but looked what happened.
2. I would say Nobody saw Keenum going off. Britt does have talent and I had him in some GPP's. Most people were probably looking at Austin if they follow certain people on this site.
3. I was all over Zeke myself. (Don't worry, I make a lot of bad calls) Green Bay had played nobody all year with a decent RB, that's why they were ranked No. 1 against the run. The funny thing was you would hear the "experts" say that also, but none would say they were all in on Zeke.
4. So much for Walker being a lock at TE this week. I thought Wright had been relegated to the bench!
5. Ajayi does have some talent. I like the way he runs the ball. He runs with reckless abandon. What happened to Foster? Did they rule him out before the game? If I had known that I would have used Ajayi in some GPP's. I figured Miami would try to make the game even slower and try to run on Pitts to keep it close. No, I didn't really think Miami would beat Pitt and my use of Ben, Bell, and AB in one of my cash LU's showed it.
6. I am a Pats fan, so I know you never can predict anything with NE. I had a hunch they might get Gronk going, but no idea on White. I would have picked Blount myself. Next week Hogan might get 3 TD's. Bennett probably killed some cash game LU's, just like Walker.
7. I think Atlanta is for real this year. They have a great Offense and the Defense is scrappy. They should have won that game. Shut down corners can have success sometimes against smaller stud WR's like OBJ, Antonio, etc. But I think its much harder to shut down the big guys with speed like Julio, Marshall, and AJ. Their size is too big a factor. I think it's better to try to run a zone defense with help against those guys. Man coverage on Julio, Marshall, and AJ is a big mistake. I think Peterson will find that out tonight against Marshall if they leave him alone on him. Julio did get interfered with on the last catch, but if he would have caught the slant before and not tipped it, they wouldn't have been in that spot. I think Sherman did a pretty good job overall.
8. I went with Ware in some GPP's and was glad. I went with Jamal also. I think they are going to keep playing Ware, he is too talented to sit. You want your best players on the field. Charles will get more time and I can see both of them playing a lot together. They both can catch the ball well also. Andy is a smart Coach. Those two along with Kelce, and Maclin are to most talented offensive players on team. Smith is a dink and dunk QB, Charles and Ware will see as many targets as the other two.
On a side note.......sorry to all the guys that went with Smith in cash games listening to the talking heads. I have been there done that. I don't follow them blindly, especially when they don't play those players. The weather factor scared me also with that game.
9. Wash has some good young RB's. They are going to have some value this year, but I don't know which one. Jones is big, but doesn't run with a lot of reckless abandon all the time. Kelley is a little smaller, but still good size and is probably a more natural runner.
10. John Elway is a very smart man. The QB he has is at least just as good as the one he let go, if not better, and MUCH cheaper. I will admit I was very surprised that Brock was able to bring them back last night. Miller was really the key, but Brock did make a few throws in the end to help them win. You can see Hopkins frustration in every game. Brock is not accurate, especially if he sees, feels any kind of pressure. I wouldn't trust anything about the Texans this year that involves that passing game for cash games.
11. I was all over Marvin this week. Golden Tate goes off!
12. West looks like he will keep the starting RB spot in Balt. Why we didn't see this after they fired the offensive coordinator last week I don't know.
Tate, Britt, Keenum, Ajayi, Wright, J. White.
Lots of other surprises.
Steelers getting beat down, Zeke going off on No. 1 Rush Defense in GB, Brock actually stepping up and winning a game, Atlanta giving Seattle all they want, Wash and KC RB situations
My thoughts on things after week 6
1. ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN FROM WEEK TO WEEK IN THE NFL. BAD TEAMS CAN WIN, GOOD TEAMS CAN LOSE.
I actually told a friend the night before that it wouldn't surprise me if Miami beat Pitt the night before. We both laughed, but looked what happened.
2. I would say Nobody saw Keenum going off. Britt does have talent and I had him in some GPP's. Most people were probably looking at Austin if they follow certain people on this site.
3. I was all over Zeke myself. (Don't worry, I make a lot of bad calls) Green Bay had played nobody all year with a decent RB, that's why they were ranked No. 1 against the run. The funny thing was you would hear the "experts" say that also, but none would say they were all in on Zeke.
4. So much for Walker being a lock at TE this week. I thought Wright had been relegated to the bench!
5. Ajayi does have some talent. I like the way he runs the ball. He runs with reckless abandon. What happened to Foster? Did they rule him out before the game? If I had known that I would have used Ajayi in some GPP's. I figured Miami would try to make the game even slower and try to run on Pitts to keep it close. No, I didn't really think Miami would beat Pitt and my use of Ben, Bell, and AB in one of my cash LU's showed it.
6. I am a Pats fan, so I know you never can predict anything with NE. I had a hunch they might get Gronk going, but no idea on White. I would have picked Blount myself. Next week Hogan might get 3 TD's. Bennett probably killed some cash game LU's, just like Walker.
7. I think Atlanta is for real this year. They have a great Offense and the Defense is scrappy. They should have won that game. Shut down corners can have success sometimes against smaller stud WR's like OBJ, Antonio, etc. But I think its much harder to shut down the big guys with speed like Julio, Marshall, and AJ. Their size is too big a factor. I think it's better to try to run a zone defense with help against those guys. Man coverage on Julio, Marshall, and AJ is a big mistake. I think Peterson will find that out tonight against Marshall if they leave him alone on him. Julio did get interfered with on the last catch, but if he would have caught the slant before and not tipped it, they wouldn't have been in that spot. I think Sherman did a pretty good job overall.
8. I went with Ware in some GPP's and was glad. I went with Jamal also. I think they are going to keep playing Ware, he is too talented to sit. You want your best players on the field. Charles will get more time and I can see both of them playing a lot together. They both can catch the ball well also. Andy is a smart Coach. Those two along with Kelce, and Maclin are to most talented offensive players on team. Smith is a dink and dunk QB, Charles and Ware will see as many targets as the other two.
On a side note.......sorry to all the guys that went with Smith in cash games listening to the talking heads. I have been there done that. I don't follow them blindly, especially when they don't play those players. The weather factor scared me also with that game.
9. Wash has some good young RB's. They are going to have some value this year, but I don't know which one. Jones is big, but doesn't run with a lot of reckless abandon all the time. Kelley is a little smaller, but still good size and is probably a more natural runner.
10. John Elway is a very smart man. The QB he has is at least just as good as the one he let go, if not better, and MUCH cheaper. I will admit I was very surprised that Brock was able to bring them back last night. Miller was really the key, but Brock did make a few throws in the end to help them win. You can see Hopkins frustration in every game. Brock is not accurate, especially if he sees, feels any kind of pressure. I wouldn't trust anything about the Texans this year that involves that passing game for cash games.
11. I was all over Marvin this week. Golden Tate goes off!
12. West looks like he will keep the starting RB spot in Balt. Why we didn't see this after they fired the offensive coordinator last week I don't know.
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did people actually play alex smith in cash games though? i did hear it get mentioned here and there a little bit early on in the week but nothing about it as we actually approached sunday...
also how about ben/ab? it felt like this week it was a clear avoid. road game, weather issues, had to pay up for rb, etc...
i thought the fd cash game lineup was pretty simple this week. cam/brees at qb, shady/bell at rb, some combo of austin/meredith/thomas at wr with a medium priced guy, buff or tenn at d, walker/novak clear locks. i pivoted to dhop/miller a little to get off 100% shady and meredith/thomas (DID NOT WORK OUT WELL) after the news that fuller wasnt playing came out. but basically pretty simple this week. certainly as clear as it has been any week this year i think.
also how about ben/ab? it felt like this week it was a clear avoid. road game, weather issues, had to pay up for rb, etc...
i thought the fd cash game lineup was pretty simple this week. cam/brees at qb, shady/bell at rb, some combo of austin/meredith/thomas at wr with a medium priced guy, buff or tenn at d, walker/novak clear locks. i pivoted to dhop/miller a little to get off 100% shady and meredith/thomas (DID NOT WORK OUT WELL) after the news that fuller wasnt playing came out. but basically pretty simple this week. certainly as clear as it has been any week this year i think.
also it really annoys me that i liked james white this week in gpps, but got so focused on the cheap wr + shady/bell/murray/miller strategy that i ignored him. had 100 brees stacks in the $1 gpp yet only ended up with a high of 175. had i had some white could have fit in odbj and julio and maybe really hit it big...
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I normally play about 25 tickets a week, and I'm always annoyed when I only have a guy like White on a couple of teams when they blow up.
freeannyong
Footballguy
You need at least 30 h2hs to normalize the opponent to opponent variation and the more the better. Obviously his win % was not indicative of his overall score % if the double up cash lines were 131.
And why $2 h2hs? Play double the amount of $1 h2hs to get more opponents.
lmack
Footballguy
I had some exposure, but looking back it may even be wrong to talk about "Alex Smith chalk". Seeing about 10% owned in big, low stakes double ups
If anything, Dodds' QB criteria post over on his blog pushed me on him. I mentioned this in an early post, but wish I stuck to 1 LU in cash this week. I usually roll out two, but it split apart the chalk in a way that burnt me more than weeks past.
Baab200
Footballguy
I'm in the $1 Thurs-mon Oakheart Squib and the current cash line (start of second quarter MNF) is 104.5
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I thought it would be higher. Like baab said, the Thurs - Mon squib I was in was really low - 109.5 to cash. I assume that is just people submitted a lot of boom/bust picks to try to win it, but fall flat (I had a couple sub-100pt stinkers this week), especially in the $1 ones because, well, it's $1. I did think that the $25 tourney would higher - closer to what a 3x would be at least. Again, is this mostly due to the boom/bust lineups people are putting in?NixonMask said:
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
podunker said:Very exciting week for players scoring. Lots of less owned guys going off.
Tate, Britt, Keenum, Ajayi, Wright, J. White.
Lots of other surprises.
Steelers getting beat down, Zeke going off on No. 1 Rush Defense in GB, Brock actually stepping up and winning a game, Atlanta giving Seattle all they want, Wash and KC RB situations
My thoughts on things after week 6
1. ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN FROM WEEK TO WEEK IN THE NFL. BAD TEAMS CAN WIN, GOOD TEAMS CAN LOSE.
I actually told a friend the night before that it wouldn't surprise me if Miami beat Pitt the night before. We both laughed, but looked what happened.
So true, but I THINK as we gather more data and see what these teams really are like, I think the shocks will become less. This is gambling, and these weeks are part of the excitement for sure.
2. I would say Nobody saw Keenum going off. Britt does have talent and I had him in some GPP's. Most people were probably looking at Austin if they follow certain people on this site.
My Keenum gpp was my best one. I picked the wrong WR at the last bit. Still him, McCoy, Miller, and OBJ got me to the cash line themselves.
4. So much for Walker being a lock at TE this week. I thought Wright had been relegated to the bench!
Yeah, the TE 'locks' were duds.
6. I am a Pats fan, so I know you never can predict anything with NE. I had a hunch they might get Gronk going, but no idea on White. I would have picked Blount myself. Next week Hogan might get 3 TD's. Bennett probably killed some cash game LU's, just like Walker.
Yep, and this has been true for years. I think the TEs are pretty safe to trot out weekly though. Bennett's salary actually went down by 800, and his "off day" this weekend is still a pretty decent game. Good luck with the rest of it though. One of these days Edelman will show up.
11. I was all over Marvin this week. Golden Tate goes off!
Yep.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Oh yeah. I through one $2 cash lineup in with Smith, and he was almost 20% owned.sooted72 said:
The numbers were all there, and Oak's D is that bad through the air, I don't think it was a horrible call at the start of the week. I get the impulse to want to go cheap at QB and get 2 Rb and 2WR studs in there. I am starting to come around to the thinking that it is just not worth it. Like somebody else stated last week when we were debating it, I think you are damn near DOA in some of these if your QB isn't pushing tourney value in these things. Sure, a cheap QB can hit 2x, but I would be shocked if 16pts at Qb is leading a lot of $winning LUs when Brady/Brees/Ryan/Cam/Stafford seem to be going off on a weekly basis and putting up damn near 30. Then you are depending on more volatile positions to make up those points for you.
However as the week went on the weather thing was one issue, but also the line moved to favoring the Chiefs in the game. Then the script turns and Smith doesn't project to have to come from behind like in the Pitt game. Also, so much focus was on the Oak pass D, but their rush D isn't great either. Last week I had written down that they were the 2nd worst D as far as yds/rush allowed, and 6th worst for yards. So I would think if a team like KC runs up against an overall bad D they just go with their strength, which is not Alex Smith.
NixonMask
Footballguy
Its not that the Thursday-Monday contests are more boom/bust than the main slate contests, but because it is the biggest slate you can play the Thursday and Monday contests, and the only one with both, the ownership percentages for players in those games are alot higher than they otherwise would be. If those players go off then the cut lines are going to be really high, if they dont do anything then the cut lines will be really low.
This has been the worst year for my DFS. I am just about out of my bank roll and don't plan on putting anything else in. I really don't feel my LU's have been bad, just key players have not hit. This past week I thought I had a decent LU.
122.58...Did not cash in anything.
Hoyer,
Murray
McCoy
K. Benjiman
R. Cobb
Merideth
D. walker
Crosby
Ravens
Second LU was
116.78
Hoyer
Murray
L. Bell
Landry
Hilton
Merideth
Fleener
crosby
Ravens
122.58...Did not cash in anything.
Hoyer,
Murray
McCoy
K. Benjiman
R. Cobb
Merideth
D. walker
Crosby
Ravens
Second LU was
116.78
Hoyer
Murray
L. Bell
Landry
Hilton
Merideth
Fleener
crosby
Ravens
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
Those aren't bad like you say, but 5 more points could have been the difference. Was it you that won a tourney last year from a satellite and won a 5 figure cash?
No, I strictly play cash games and just enter each of my LU's in a tourney just incase. I would have loved to win a 5 figure payout though. It honestly has been like this all year. I feel my LU's are solid, but it just doesn't pan out.
If you are strictly playing Cash games I would suggest putting more emphasis on paying up at QB and TE. Even on weeks when the chalk RBs are pricey I'd spend the money for a top flight QB as well for sure and then play what you can at WR with solid floors. The .5 per reception allows you some lea way with regards to WRs, meaning you can find some high volume targets WRs in the 5000-7000 range which should allow you to get the QB you desire.
For this week I'm looking at a core for my cash games of
Ryan/Murray/HHunter/Minn
Brady/TB RB (martin or Rodgers)/JJones/Buff
I could also see using a couple of midrange QBs this week
Mariota/Freeman/AJ/Gronk
Cousins/Murray/JJones/Minn
but with your limited exposure I'd stick to the top of the QB salaries.
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
I knew one of the regulars won, remember now who. I have had down and break even weeks. Was in the hole on my initial deposit, but now up 50% thanks to last week. I have been on the ledge, just need a good week to get you off it. It will come.
yeah idk about alex smith. maybe he was a decent play. couldnt really tell you, never truly considered him. like i said in a post above, i think the default best fd cash game lineup for the main slate this week allowed you to pretty cleanly get in an elite qb. the only non-top 3 guy i ever seriously even considered was hoyer. factor in the weather and the overall untrustworthyness of the kc offense i just stayed away from that game completely. and had it completely ruled out early on in the week so i cant really talk about it.
it seems like youre going through a little of what ive been going through the last couple of weeks. and that is having the correct core/short list of plays but then just picking the wrong combination of guys. its very unlucky to have your qb not throw a td pass (especially given that he threw for 300 yds)...
also maybe lineup construction is an issue. that 2nd lineup with hoyer-meredith-fleener is pretty sketchy for cash. then throw in that landry never scores tds and hilton is a super boom/bust guy (though his targets have been much more consistent since moncrief went out, so not as bad as in years past) and you get a way too high variance lineup for my liking.
i think a good test is after the week is over to take a complete inventory of all the guys you were strongly considering playing in cash games during the week. BE COMPLETELY HONEST and only choose the guys you played and really, really liked and considered plaing for the week. then add up all their salaries and pts scored. this takes < 10 minutes using excel and maybe 15 if you just do it with pen and paper. is it at or above 2x combined? are the qbs only at or above 2.5x? if yes i would say that youre on the right track. doing this exercise i noticed that my core group of guys was on point for a couple weeks in a row yet i just picked the wrong players (looking at you ajg and dhop) which tanked my lineups.
keep at it.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
What's everyone doing with Jay Ajayi this week in tournaments?
Do you think he'll be too highly owned after last week?
Do you think he'll be too highly owned after last week?
