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Fanduel Week 6 (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Snorkelson
- Start date
Cash LUs
ASmith/McCoy/Miller/Cooks/Landry/Meredith/Olsen/Succ/Ten
Mariota/McCoy/Miller/Cooper/TY/Meredith/Kelce/Succ/Buff
Taylor/McCoy/Bell/JNelson/MThomas/Meredithh/Walker/Boswell/Buff
Brady/McCoy/Bell/Austin/MThomas/Conley/Gronk/Novak/Buff- Wobbling on this one as a Cash
Brees/McCoy/Bell/Cooks/Meredith/Conley/Walker/Tucker/Buff-Wobbling on this one as well
My $25.00 GPP entry, also my week 5 survivor LU
ASmith/McCoy/Miller/Maclin/Hopkins/Austin/Kelce/Vinatierei/Buff
Thoughts welcomed
ASmith/McCoy/Miller/Cooks/Landry/Meredith/Olsen/Succ/Ten
Mariota/McCoy/Miller/Cooper/TY/Meredith/Kelce/Succ/Buff
Taylor/McCoy/Bell/JNelson/MThomas/Meredithh/Walker/Boswell/Buff
Brady/McCoy/Bell/Austin/MThomas/Conley/Gronk/Novak/Buff- Wobbling on this one as a Cash
Brees/McCoy/Bell/Cooks/Meredith/Conley/Walker/Tucker/Buff-Wobbling on this one as well
My $25.00 GPP entry, also my week 5 survivor LU
ASmith/McCoy/Miller/Maclin/Hopkins/Austin/Kelce/Vinatierei/Buff
Thoughts welcomed
achemen
Footballguy
Mine is similar...guess I'm leaning more towards cheaper RB than WR. My confidence is shot after the last two weeks, so not sure what is right.
A Smith
McCoy/Howard
Cooks/Cooper/Landry
Kelce
Crosby
Bills
NixonMask
Footballguy
I'm becoming less worried about Jennings as the week goes on. He still looks to be hurt. Bobby has been productive in his limited role too. Baltimore has a good rush defense. They are an absolute civ to pass catching backs though. If NYG demonstrate any kind of rational gameplan Rainey will have a great game. Are they capable of a rational gameplan in New York right now though?
@KarmaPolice tens of thousands of people play DFS each week. A tiny fraction of a small percentage are going to see that random guy on the footballguys forum is on Bobby Rainey this week. I can understand why people are skeptical, the negatives are obvious. But I mean come on, youre looking at a guy thats going to be less than 1% owned at near min priced who could get near 10 carries and 10 targets. And hes been productive too. Even against a very good Packers rush defense he had almost 4.5 YPC. It was almost 5.5 the week before against Minnesota. Are you kidding me?! And on top of that the Baltimore rush defense, that everyone thinks is really good is actually, secretly, a bottom 3 defense against pass catching RBs. If we're talking poker analogies Bobby Rainey is an open ended straight flush draw on the flop right now. I may go broke, but youre damn sure I'm getting it all in here.
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NixonMask
Footballguy
Meredith is closer to 2 data points than 1. Once he got on the field two weeks ago as an injury replacement he didnt come off the field. Assuming Royal is out again, and he hasnt practiced all week, I am pretty sure he gets the opportunity again. Whether he really is good is another question though.
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what do you mean by this?
i think youre going to have some michael thomas in cash lineups this week. kinda like deandre washington last week. it feels dirty but theres really no value to be had this week so gotta sacrifice somewhere. yes the the threat of a 0 is real.
if this is a gpp lineup then you should have kelce over walker obv.KarmaPolice said:
wow that seems unnecessarily risky for a cash lineup. dat wr core
NixonMask
Footballguy
Over performing was probably the wrong word. They have had alot of close games. Week 1 they had the walk off 2 point conversion against New Orleans and last week was a miracle win against SD. They also have a 1 point win against Baltimore two weeks ago. Thats alot of things that have gone their way so far this season. Things could absolutely keep going Oaklands way this week. But, as we saw last night there are always ups and downs in any NFL season. For the entire season every break went against San Diego, last night everything went San Diegos way. The Oakland game is also expected to have some wind and rain. Kansas City is also coming off a bye and Andy Reid's teams are REALLY good when coming off a bye. Oakland also doesnt have a serviceable RB at the moment, Kansas City knows they are going to pass. Last part of the thought is Kansas City is a boom or bust defense. This is more of a feeling than a position backed by empirical data, but I get the feeling Kansas City D is in much better spot than it would first seem.
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
Raiders Oline is one of the best in the leaugue, in sacks allowed. Chiefs are 31st in the league behind the Giants in sacking the QB. Maybe when Houston is back things change. Maybe they will blitz more. There will be alot of pressure on the secondary this game.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Just giving you #### - just like you said, so what if 4-5 of us on here play that guy too, there are 1000s of other combinations around a player we mention as well. There were a few lineups that I needed a cheap Rb for and I sprinkled a couple of Rainey (bad pun intended) and a J.Richard in there. I wish more people posted their thoughts and rosters here each week, but I understand why people might not want to as well.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
ive been reading a lot of 'fuller is a great play bc vontae davis will be on dhop' kinda narrative stuff this week. which seems strange to me bc if you go by dvoa indy has been mediocre vs #1 wrs (9-83/wk, slightly worse than league average) and pretty darn good vs #2 wrs (5-42/week, a very respectable 10th overall). where theyre actually getting shredded vs the pass is against rbs and tes.
NixonMask
Footballguy
The Fuller love is because people assume Vontae will be on Hopkins. Patrick Robinson is expected to cover Fuller. Patrick Robinson has been really bad. Houston has demonstrated all season they are going to look to get Fuller a few deep looks each week. Robinson is fast enough that Fuller probably cant get behind him, which admittedly is Fullers strength, but as long as they give Fuller anything other than straight go routes there is good reason to believe he can convert.
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
I get that Rainey may be very low owned and the need to differentiate yourself. I just cant pass on backs with better situations and opportunities. I dont understand why the giants dont give Perkins more work. That guy has it. For your sake I hope you are on to something. In the grand scheme its a dart throw but only has to hit once.
Raging weasel
Footballguy
What do you guys think about the weather situation for the Oak/KC game? Its supposed to be raining and windy (15-30mph) for the whole game. I have at least 1 of Smith ,Maclin, Cooper, Crabtree and Kelce in every one of my lineups and this news has got me thinking about blowing them all up. or maybe put them all in a gpp and fade them in cash?
NixonMask
Footballguy
I hear you on the opportunity, but I honestly don't think a single RB is in a better situation this week for all the reasons Ive already listed.
karmarooster
Footballguy
Crap, I have most lineups built around Smith, Cooper, Maclin and Kelce too. Thanks for the heads up, it's worth monitoring as the weather could easily change from forecast 48 hours out.
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
Just see how the line moves. I think the O/U has only gone down a half point so ffar.
NixonMask
Footballguy
He is going around 1% owned. He is playing against one of the worst defenses in the league against pass catching running backs. He is a really good pass catching running back. In Rainey's limited role in the Giants running game so far he has been productive. Rashad Jennings health is still a question mark, he logged his third straight limited practice today. He is going to be around 1% owned. And finally, he is going to be around 1% owned.
I'm not saying he should be considered for cash. There are risks, he may get 2 carries, 3 targets and his game is done. The risk is obvious. If someone plays him and he scores them two points Im not going to feel bad about recommending him. It could happen. If you think the risk is too great and won't play him as a result I get it. But, if you are playing GPPs and not even considering him then you are doing it wrong.
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
I am not considering him, and dont feel like i am doing it wrong. I just feel like I am passing up on to many points by rostering a guy that will have limited touches with not much for TD upside vs a back in a better situation that will get the lionshare of RB work. I would prefer taking my chances on a cheap wr. You may be onto something, but you dont need a 1% to win a gpp. I will totally accept a "told you so" if Rainey hits 3x. I want you to succeed as a footballguy brethren.
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
You have to think outside the box. I am rooting for ya. I think you have a legit shot if Jennings is out and the Ravens can get up early and forcing more passing situations. I haven't taken a look at team totals for this game.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Looks like rain was taken out of the weather report for the Oak game but still 13mph winds. Looks like drizzle light rain in Seattle, Miami, and Chicago.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Btw, somebody mentioned Rainey as a gpp play on the Power Grid podcast.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
FWIW, both podcasts that I am listening to seem to be big on Clay for gpp, and even suggested a Taylor-Clay stack.
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
On the Rainey topic. Was it the sharp website that showed the Ravens were bottom 3 vs RB? Footballoutsiders has Ravens 11th vs RB in the pass game.
Richard Rogers could be a below the radar play at TE in gpp. According to footballoutsiders the Cowboys are 32nd vs the TE.
Richard Rogers could be a below the radar play at TE in gpp. According to footballoutsiders the Cowboys are 32nd vs the TE.
NixonMask
Footballguy
Yes, I am using Sharp's numbers. This is only for actual receptions, it does not take into account any actual rushes from the RB, again only receptions. And for the record, on the straight rankings he has them ranked as the #14 defense against pass catching RBs, but that is only because of volume. His formula weighs volume. Why I like Rainey:
Against Baltimore running backs have been targeted 24 times and given up 21 receptions.. That is an 88% completion percentage. Only New Orleans and Atlanta are less effective. 58% of the time the opposing RB is targeted it results in a successful play. Again, only New Orleans and Atlanta are worse. A play is rated successful if it gets 40% of the needed yards on 1st down, 50% on second, and results in a first down on third.
I am at the mercy of Ben McAdoo's dysfunctional offense. But if he gives Rainey the same 10 targets hes had the last 2 weeks I am very confident he will find success.
Against Baltimore running backs have been targeted 24 times and given up 21 receptions.. That is an 88% completion percentage. Only New Orleans and Atlanta are less effective. 58% of the time the opposing RB is targeted it results in a successful play. Again, only New Orleans and Atlanta are worse. A play is rated successful if it gets 40% of the needed yards on 1st down, 50% on second, and results in a first down on third.
I am at the mercy of Ben McAdoo's dysfunctional offense. But if he gives Rainey the same 10 targets hes had the last 2 weeks I am very confident he will find success.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
DukeBroadway said:
This is my struggle as well, and I think I have been burned a lot of times with trying to find that one guy that I think will pop that nobody is on (see Powell last week). Then I look at the winning teams and it doesn't seem like they are driven by those guys.
I mean, the winner in the big tourney last week was Carr, Howard, Riddick, Cooper, Hilton, Marshall, Bennett, Adam, Minn. Looking at the top 10 listed on the FBG article, there are only a couple 'odd' names that stick out - Quick, a couple non-chalk Ks. But the rest were bigger name guys that had a big week and they all look like they had a QB-WR stack.
This isn't a shot at anybody's thinking or process, I am just thinking out loud and trying to figure out a strategy (and remember I am the guy that just posted my Keenum-Austin gpp stack). I just know I tend to dig too deep to find that 1 in 1000 guy that I will be the only one thinking about. Yes, ownership is important, but I think my lineups toe the line of being too weird just for weirdness sake, and a lot of times those 'weird' guys are on bad teams, splitting looks, with low implied team totals.
That said, this does seem like a week where you are going to have to have that one cheap guy because of the pricing. I had about 15 gpp LU ideas written down last night, and I think I scrapped all but 3 as I really thought about them.
David Dodds
Administrator
I like to stack + opponent receiver mostly (high-variance strategy).
Cam Newton / Kelvin Benjamin / Michael Thomas
Alex Smith / Jeremy Maclin / Amari Cooper
type of plays. These leagues award 25X to win them. You will need about 180 to get the win.
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Raging weasel
Footballguy
Great news - thanks
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Well, I revamped a bunch of gpps and have a handful in. Ended up not going with any cheap options at Rb this week. I think my cheapest is one Ingram, and one Mathews. Of course that means that I mostly went cheap at WR3 or TE when I had to skimp. Figured I would put my money where my mouth is and use the cheap WRs that I listed in my post on page 1 since most popped up when I was looking at options vs. bad Ds. I will throw a couple LUs out there for ridicule, comments, etc.
Dak/D.Murray/Mathews/Nelson/Cooks/Cooper/Witten/Novak/Philly
Kept saying that I was eyeing this game up. IF GB can slow down Zeke, Dak will have to pass. Witten has seen a bump in targets w/o Dez, and a lot of RZ % for the team. On the other side, who knows WTF is going on with the GB rbs, so I think Rodgers will also have to sling it and have a high Vegas total- enter Nelson into the lineup. I was heeing and hawing on Mathews, but Wash is terrible vs. the rush and now Wash will be even worse with Reed's health issues, so I will do the RB/Def stack as well here.
Brady/Bell/McCoy/Meredith/Thomas/Conley/Gronk/Tucker/Buff
This one is my WTF cheap WR gpp so I can get my favorite 2 players and the best 2 rbs for the week in that probably won't do anything. Basically the 'chalk' cheap WRs, but doubt anybody is playing all 3!!!
Dak/D.Murray/Mathews/Nelson/Cooks/Cooper/Witten/Novak/Philly
Kept saying that I was eyeing this game up. IF GB can slow down Zeke, Dak will have to pass. Witten has seen a bump in targets w/o Dez, and a lot of RZ % for the team. On the other side, who knows WTF is going on with the GB rbs, so I think Rodgers will also have to sling it and have a high Vegas total- enter Nelson into the lineup. I was heeing and hawing on Mathews, but Wash is terrible vs. the rush and now Wash will be even worse with Reed's health issues, so I will do the RB/Def stack as well here.
Brady/Bell/McCoy/Meredith/Thomas/Conley/Gronk/Tucker/Buff
This one is my WTF cheap WR gpp so I can get my favorite 2 players and the best 2 rbs for the week in that probably won't do anything. Basically the 'chalk' cheap WRs, but doubt anybody is playing all 3!!!
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I am struggling with the cash lineups this week. Thoughts on these variations of the same core of McCoy/Miller/Thomas/Walker/Novak/?
Smith/McCoy/Miller/K.Benj/Baldwin/Thomas/Walker/Novak/Buff
Brady/McCoy/Miller/Maclin or Landry/Matthews/Thomas/Walker/Novak/Tenn
Smith/McCoy/Miller/K.Benj/Baldwin/Thomas/Walker/Novak/Buff
Brady/McCoy/Miller/Maclin or Landry/Matthews/Thomas/Walker/Novak/Tenn
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
The wr i seem to get locked in on are Maclin Landry Meredith
This is one of the cash lineups I posted earlier crept I have Austin and Novak
and I have it in the Sunday million dollar gpp
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Too funny. I gurss good luck to us! I am just in a $1 gpp, so we can both take top prize.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I must have missed this before.
Of the ones you listed, I think I like them in about that order. I can barely talk myself into Smith for cash, much less anybody else under 8000. I think Mariota and Taylor are a bit risky for cash, but I guess they do have some rush potential to boost their floor. #3 is too Buff loaded, IMO. I would try to get off of Taylor in that one, or McCoy. You have McCoy in all of them, maybe put one together without him? Also, as you see, that McCoy/Bell combo is going to make it hella hard to have decent WRs. I personally would only want one of Meredith/Thomas rostered in cash. Not sure about the math, but you could turn McCoy into Miller in #3 and maybe come down from Nelson and upgrade your #2.. Maybe instead of McCoy/Nelson/Meredith, it's Miller/Marvin/Maclin or something? Dunno, I am just spitballing here...
With the stacks and a couple low priced WRs in there, I like the last two as gpp more, especially that championship 4th lineup!
Like that gpp lineup!
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I did throw together an "I read the articles at FBGs" special, and is doubles as a game stack for the Oak/KC tilt.
Carr/McCoy/Miller/Cooper/Maclin/Edelman/Pitta/Novak/Buff
Carr/McCoy/Miller/Cooper/Maclin/Edelman/Pitta/Novak/Buff
I agree about LU 3 and pulled McCoy and Nelson/Thomas and added LMiller, Marvin and WallaceI must have missed this before.
Of the ones you listed, I think I like them in about that order. I can barely talk myself into Smith for cash, much less anybody else under 8000. I think Mariota and Taylor are a bit risky for cash, but I guess they do have some rush potential to boost their floor. #3 is too Buff loaded, IMO. I would try to get off of Taylor in that one, or McCoy. You have McCoy in all of them, maybe put one together without him? Also, as you see, that McCoy/Bell combo is going to make it hella hard to have decent WRs. I personally would only want one of Meredith/Thomas rostered in cash. Not sure about the math, but you could turn McCoy into Miller in #3 and maybe come down from Nelson and upgrade your #2.. Maybe instead of McCoy/Nelson/Meredith, it's Miller/Marvin/Maclin or something? Dunno, I am just spitballing here...
With the stacks and a couple low priced WRs in there, I like the last two as gpp more, especially that championship 4th lineup!
Like that gpp lineup!
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Yeah, keep saying that game keeps pulling me in. Vegas seems to like it
I have a splash of Zeke in my lineups because he is a beast. GB's rush D is tops, but who have they really faced? Something has got to give in this game
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Still that way?
The link on fbgs has the KC/Chic game with light rain and winds 14-17mph. Similar for Mia/Pitt.
Raging weasel
Footballguy
boom or bust oakheart squib
bortles
Mathews charles
robinson k Benjamin cooks
thomas
novak
Texans
Avoiding all the chalk plays even the cheap ones. Either going to win some money or finish in bottom 1%
50/50
brady
Michael ingram
cooper Mathews snead
walker
crosby
bills
50/50 and week 5 survivor
brees
howard mccoy
cooper Hilton beasley
tamme
crosby
bills
bortles
Mathews charles
robinson k Benjamin cooks
thomas
novak
Texans
Avoiding all the chalk plays even the cheap ones. Either going to win some money or finish in bottom 1%
50/50
brady
Michael ingram
cooper Mathews snead
walker
crosby
bills
50/50 and week 5 survivor
brees
howard mccoy
cooper Hilton beasley
tamme
crosby
bills
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
I think I am going with 3 cash line ups this week, still thinking:
Newton - McCoy - Miller - Cooper - Landry - Thomas - Kelce - Novak - Titans
Brees - McCoy - Bell - Maclin - Landry - Meredith - Pitta - Novak - Bills
Smith - McCoy - Bell - Hilton - Benjamin - Thomas - Pitta - Novak - Titans
I wanted some Walker, just didnt like what happened with my WR's.
Newton - McCoy - Miller - Cooper - Landry - Thomas - Kelce - Novak - Titans
Brees - McCoy - Bell - Maclin - Landry - Meredith - Pitta - Novak - Bills
Smith - McCoy - Bell - Hilton - Benjamin - Thomas - Pitta - Novak - Titans
I wanted some Walker, just didnt like what happened with my WR's.
