Fantasy football takes no skill (1 Viewer)

[cvnpoka]

fantasy football is a ton more luck than poker in my experience. or maybe i just suck at fantasy.

I don't play poker but one difference is that your hand "resets" constantly in poker. In FF you draft a team and whatever you did right or wrong, you deal with the impact of that all year.

this is a good point. it makes the long run take a lot longer to conclude. it would be more akin to a huge tournament poker with quickly escalating antes and blinds.

 

[Team Legacy]

There is a reason why the same names keep showing up at the top of the leaderboard every year in High Stakes Fantasy Football, and it has nothing to do with luck. It's a skill game.

Figuring out who to draft, what position to draft, what player to drop and what player to pick up that makes the most sense for your team are all entirely strategy based decisions.

On one of my teams, I have Calvin Johnson, am strong at WR and thin on RB. I could either A, go after Daniel Thomas, to potentially improve my RB corps, who may or may not get the start this week against the Dolphins or B. Protect my investment of Calvin and snag a Nate Burleson. Now, how much am I going to have to bid for either player that I want, and how does that decision factor into the rest of my season's budget of $1,000 free agent dollars.

I could show you countless examples such as this, as to why skilled owners "know what they're doing", they don't panic, and they go into the season with a plan with team construction on their mind, whethering the bye weeks, looking ahead to the playoffs etc. Whether the players do their job is really, irrelevant, because the decisions to construct and move forward in the season rely solely on the fantasy manager's ability to move the team forward in the right, logical direction based on the needs of that team. Some teams, you find yourself needing to make decisions to go for it, while others, you want safe floors for the players you're starting. It all depends on what type of challenge you're facing from the other 11 owners in the league. These decisions are all AFTER the fact and have nothing to do with what happens on Sunday's, that's already happened, it's how you react to it that counts.

Look, I get that we all have the same chance of hitting heads or tails when we flip a coin, but to argue we have the same chance of putting up the most fantasy points in the season has been disproven time and time again when fantasy players show up drafting out of magazines in Vegas and they're matching up against guys who truely understand how to win and work the league rules to their advantage. Fantasy managers use skill to assess whether a player is in a favorable situation to produce, looking at snap counts, targets, point totals over/under, defensive matchups etc. The list goes on and on.

Frankly, your article comes across as "shock material" and is rather offensive to me and I'd imagine many fantasy players everywhere. But, welcome to Footballguys. Hope you enjoy your time here. How did you run across us and where have you been hiding?

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

People taking offense to the obvious fact that FF is predominantly luck have issues. Some serious denial here. You are predicting the future, end of story.I think craps is a MUCH better analogy than poker. Knowing the rules and how to improve your odds is half the battle... but that doesn't have much to do with skill. Paying attention and being proactive helps a bunch, again not skill. Increasing the amount of information (stats, injury info, depth charts, weather, other variables) you have helps, yet again not skill... just effort.There are certainly ways to be "better" at FF, but it always simply involves the above.In the end you are still just throwing guys on your roster each week and crossing your fingers that they perform as you hoped they would. No amount of "skill" can prevent a guy from only catching one ball, or leaving the game on a stretcher, or getting tackled at the 1 yard line instead of a touchdown. You may have learned how to increase your odds, but you are still rolling the dice and hoping you don't crap out.

Player evaluation is a skill. some people making their living betting on sports, do you really think it's mostly luck?There's a difference between just throwing guys on your roster and looking at future trends or each player and deciding what their potential ceiling is.Being in Dynasty start up drafts make this very obvious.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Hmmm. Article posted yesterday... new member yesterday starts a thread linking to it with first post?I've only played in a hockey pool for a couple of years (Yahoo) and I feel like is it very dependent on volume rather than good choices. You can move players in and out of your line-up every day so a lot seems to depend on getting as many guys into as many games as you can. If this reduced the element of luck, I prefer to contend with the luck personally. In football, I need to make a decision on Denarius Moore or Jeremy Maclin in my flex and the decision makes a difference.

That speaks to the idiocy of your hockey league's scoring more than anything else. It should have been obvious to anyone in a hockey/basketball/baseball fantasy league that unlimited pickups combined with daily set lineups is a recipe for disaster, as you can just pickup a bunch of new players each day that happen to play that day as you mentioned. Or if you guys wanted to keep unlimited pickups, then you should have had weekly set lineups instead of daily set, that way picking up players will have no affect on any current matchup.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Better idea: write down a list of every offensive player in the NFL. Throw darts at it. Draft who the dart lands on. If FF was all luck, you should be competitive. You'd better hope you're right, though, because you'll need a whole lot of luck after spending your first 7 picks on Nick Foles, Jeremiah Johnson, Devin Hester, Michael Floyd, Blaine Gabbart, Kyle Orton, and Randy Moss. I think it's Calbear who is always saying that FF takes a lot of skill, it's just that most owners piggyback off of someone else's skill (I.e. draft from a cheatsheet). I don't have to have any skill in picking stocks if I just give Warren Buffet my money and let him invest it for me: this does not mean that picking stocks doesn't take skill.

even if applicable, this is pretty irrelevant to the spirit of the discussion.

I don't think so. Nobody would seriously suggest 10-20 years ago that fantasy took no skill. That's because, back then, most people had not yet begun outsourcing their skill-based decisions. Now people make all their decisions from a cheatsheet and think fantasy takes no skill, but that cheatsheet was not created by chance. Owners without skill can now borrow someone else's, but they still need skill (and a whole lot of it) to be competitive.

Great posts SSOG

 

[DoubleG]

Better idea: write down a list of every offensive player in the NFL. Throw darts at it. Draft who the dart lands on. If FF was all luck, you should be competitive. You'd better hope you're right, though, because you'll need a whole lot of luck after spending your first 7 picks on Nick Foles, Jeremiah Johnson, Devin Hester, Michael Floyd, Blaine Gabbart, Kyle Orton, and Randy Moss.

I think it's Calbear who is always saying that FF takes a lot of skill, it's just that most owners piggyback off of someone else's skill (I.e. draft from a cheatsheet). I don't have to have any skill in picking stocks if I just give Warren Buffet my money and let him invest it for me: this does not mean that picking stocks doesn't take skill.

even if applicable, this is pretty irrelevant to the spirit of the discussion.

I don't think so. Nobody would seriously suggest 10-20 years ago that fantasy took no skill. That's because, back then, most people had not yet begun outsourcing their skill-based decisions. Now people make all their decisions from a cheatsheet and think fantasy takes no skill, but that cheatsheet was not created by chance. Owners without skill can now borrow someone else's, but they still need skill (and a whole lot of it) to be competitive.

Great posts SSOG

And as kind of a corrolary to that, even deciding whose projections/information to use is a skill of sorts. I actually think, moving forward, that will become more and more important. In today's day and age of instant info via twitter, message boards, facebook, etc. there is almost TOO MUCH information. One skill needed is to learn how to filter out the truly useful from amongst the noise and/or poor information/conclusions.

 

[footballnerd]

Better idea: write down a list of every offensive player in the NFL. Throw darts at it. Draft who the dart lands on. If FF was all luck, you should be competitive. You'd better hope you're right, though, because you'll need a whole lot of luck after spending your first 7 picks on Nick Foles, Jeremiah Johnson, Devin Hester, Michael Floyd, Blaine Gabbart, Kyle Orton, and Randy Moss.

I think it's Calbear who is always saying that FF takes a lot of skill, it's just that most owners piggyback off of someone else's skill (I.e. draft from a cheatsheet). I don't have to have any skill in picking stocks if I just give Warren Buffet my money and let him invest it for me: this does not mean that picking stocks doesn't take skill.

even if applicable, this is pretty irrelevant to the spirit of the discussion.

I don't think so. Nobody would seriously suggest 10-20 years ago that fantasy took no skill. That's because, back then, most people had not yet begun outsourcing their skill-based decisions. Now people make all their decisions from a cheatsheet and think fantasy takes no skill, but that cheatsheet was not created by chance. Owners without skill can now borrow someone else's, but they still need skill (and a whole lot of it) to be competitive.

Great posts SSOG

And as kind of a corrolary to that, even deciding whose projections/information to use is a skill of sorts. I actually think, moving forward, that will become more and more important. In today's day and age of instant info via twitter, message boards, facebook, etc. there is almost TOO MUCH information. One skill needed is to learn how to filter out the truly useful from amongst the noise and/or poor information/conclusions.

agree, and being able to weed out misinformation since there are a ton of hacks (maybe this author is one? )out there trying to be the first to come out with a story. Skill is deriving the conclusion before the professionals can publish it to their audience.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

I don't think the author of that article is all that experienced with fantasy sports and he doesn't discuss the issue in a very rational manner either. For starters, real sports have a tonne of luck involved, so no fantasy league should be trying to completely get rid of luck's impact.Secondly, his comparison to fantasy hockey is a very poor one, as fantasy hockey is very luck-based as well in H2H leagues despite the fact that they play more often, because of how scarce goals are. Sidney Crosby can score 10 points in 1 week and 0 points in the next just as easily as Jamaal Charles can run for 30 yards one week and 233 the next. Fantasy baseball is also very luck based if it's done in a H2H format for the same reasons I listed for fantasy hockey. The only fantasy sport that isn't very luck based in a H2H format is basketball since scoring in basketball happens so frequently, so guys like LeBron and Durant end up averaging over 20 points per game in every single week in the season. So, assuming the author is being consistent about H2H leagues across the board, the only sport that is significantly less luck based is fantasy basketball; and if we aren't to make that assumption, then he can simply make his fantasy football league a total points league instead of a H2H one, which completely gets rid of the issue of inconsistent scoring on a week to week basis. And finally, his assertion that the only way for fantasy football to be more skill-dependent is to enforce rotisserie scoring is far from true. Turning your redraft league into a dynasty league with larger rosters, starting lineups, and including IDP is a simple way of greatly increasing the skill involved.

I actually wrote that article, which was why I posted it. I should tell you that I make a living as a fantasy sports expert (which should have been made clear in my bio on the site there).I don't think that the comparison to hockey is incorrect, there is not anywhere near as much luck involved. You say Crosby could score 10 points in one week and 0 the next. That is speaking to consistency of performing. Setting aside the fact that this would actually be very rare (unlike in football where it happens almost every week), it doesn't matter. Crosby scoring 10 points isn't going to make your team win the matchup. It might make you win the points category (and perhaps goals or assists depending on where his points came from) but that's it. It won't make you win saves, or penalty minutes, or shutouts, etc. The entire match doesn't hinge on Crosby, like it would have Jamaal Charles last week.

For starters, the scheduling of hockey isn't as consistent as it is for football, some weeks the Penguins could play twice, others 4 times; so some fantasy player could conceivably have their players play 10 more games in a week than their opponent, which could easily cause the worst team in the league to beat the best team and is one aspect where luck is involved in fantasy hockey. Secondly, we're kind of comparing apples to oranges in comparing a rotisserie scoring to points scoring leagues, as plenty of fantasy hockey leagues are points scoring just like football. But ignoring that, a lot of this still depends on each individual fantasy leagues scoring, as Crosby's 10 points could significantly aid a team win the goals, assists, +/-, game winning goals, powerplay points, and shorthanded points categories; and there's leagues don't have to have a penalty minutes category if they want to put more value on players that score points instead of goons, which would make Crosby's 10 points more valuable as well.And thirdly, goaltender fantasy scoring is tremendously luck based and puts fantasy hockey on an even keel with fantasy football imo, depending on how it's scored of course, since it's very inconsistent and one or two bad games or great games on a Tuesday can just about decide who wins over half the goalie categories for the entire week.

 

[xander756]

Yes in baseball and hockey leagues you need to have either a season or weekly pickup cap to prevent people from doing an add/drop strategy. That kind of behavior definitely ruins leagues when you see someone who has picked up and dropped 200+ pitchers of the course of the season just to get in extra innings.

 

[RCon]

Article:

A major theme on this fantasy sports column this year is how much fantasy football relies on luck. No I am not talking about Colts quarterback Andrew Luck but the concept of chance.While all fantasy sports have some factor of luck to them, fantasy football is mostly luck and requires very little, if any, knowledge of the sport to win. I even have a continuing season-long series on the topic titled "fantasy football is all luck" . But why does football in particular involve so much dang luck?The reason that fantasy football is so heavily reliant on a luck factor is because players only play one game per week. Compare this to hockey where players have a game every other day or baseball where teams play every single day of the week. Luck decreases with more games played. When your team only plays one game per week, a single performance can literally make or break your entire matchup. One game from just one player could spell doom for your fantasy team.

Read full article: [link redacted — MT]What do you think of this article? Agree? Disagree? Is football more luck than other fantasy sports?

you register yesterday, ask a question this morning, and now you are defensive?nice work.

Defensive? Not at all. Just trying to correct people who are saying incorrect things. If you disagree with the argument put forth in the article, I am all for hearing your opinion but trying to claim I am 0-3 (which I am not) or that I only am good because of listening to experts (when I am an expert myself) have nothing to do with the article at hand.

If there is no skill, then how can you be an "expert"? If there is no skill, then all people on the planet are equally "good" at fantasy football.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

If there is no skill, then how can you be an "expert"? If there is no skill, then all people on the planet are equally "good" at fantasy football.

He's just another clown who decided to start an account here just to get hits on his website. These things are usually shut down by now.

 

[xander756]

If there is no skill, then how can you be an "expert"? If there is no skill, then all people on the planet are equally "good" at fantasy football.

There are more fantasy sports than just football, you realize.

He's just another clown who decided to start an account here just to get hits on his website. These things are usually shut down by now.

C'mon man, no need to be so insulting. I clearly came here to stimulate discussion or I would have just posted the link and left. I'm genuinely interested in talking about it and there have been a few really insightful replies.

 

[footballnerd]

Yes in baseball and hockey leagues you need to have either a season or weekly pickup cap to prevent people from doing an add/drop strategy. That kind of behavior definitely ruins leagues when you see someone who has picked up and dropped 200+ pitchers of the course of the season just to get in extra innings.

Alexander (Xander756) Hinkley has been playing fantasy sports for more than 10 years. He currently works as the Fantasy Content Manager for the National Lacrosse League and has an interest in fantasy lacrosse, hockey, baseball, and football. You may contact Alex with your comments and questions.

not only do you list football LAST, but you're a fantasy content manager for the National Lacrosse League. No amateur sports fan (yes you are) can thoroughly follow more than 3 sports, so I'm assuming football is you're weakest subject. Spreading yourself too thin there pal, maybe you should just stick to the sports you actually know since you keep referring back to them in comparison.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

If there is no skill, then how can you be an "expert"? If there is no skill, then all people on the planet are equally "good" at fantasy football.

There are more fantasy sports than just football, you realize.

He's just another clown who decided to start an account here just to get hits on his website. These things are usually shut down by now.

C'mon man, no need to be so insulting. I clearly came here to stimulate discussion or I would have just posted the link and left. I'm genuinely interested in talking about it and there have been a few really insightful replies.

Then delete the links to your site.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Yes in baseball and hockey leagues you need to have either a season or weekly pickup cap to prevent people from doing an add/drop strategy. That kind of behavior definitely ruins leagues when you see someone who has picked up and dropped 200+ pitchers of the course of the season just to get in extra innings.

Alexander (Xander756) Hinkley has been playing fantasy sports for more than 10 years. He currently works as the Fantasy Content Manager for the National Lacrosse League and has an interest in fantasy lacrosse, hockey, baseball, and football. You may contact Alex with your comments and questions.

not only do you list football LAST, but you're a fantasy content manager for the National Lacrosse League. No amateur sports fan (yes you are) can thoroughly follow more than 3 sports, so I'm assuming football is you're weakest subject. Spreading yourself too thin there pal, maybe you should just stick to the sports you actually know since you keep referring back to them in comparison.

How did you make that calculation...

 

[footballnerd]

If there is no skill, then how can you be an "expert"? If there is no skill, then all people on the planet are equally "good" at fantasy football.

There are more fantasy sports than just football, you realize.

He's just another clown who decided to start an account here just to get hits on his website. These things are usually shut down by now.

C'mon man, no need to be so insulting. I clearly came here to stimulate discussion or I would have just posted the link and left. I'm genuinely interested in talking about it and there have been a few really insightful replies.

Then delete the links to your site.

this fool comes to the Pool and prances around a thread with the heading "Fantasy Football takes no skill" and expects to get no grief for it?

 

[footballnerd]

Yes in baseball and hockey leagues you need to have either a season or weekly pickup cap to prevent people from doing an add/drop strategy. That kind of behavior definitely ruins leagues when you see someone who has picked up and dropped 200+ pitchers of the course of the season just to get in extra innings.

Alexander (Xander756) Hinkley has been playing fantasy sports for more than 10 years. He currently works as the Fantasy Content Manager for the National Lacrosse League and has an interest in fantasy lacrosse, hockey, baseball, and football. You may contact Alex with your comments and questions.

not only do you list football LAST, but you're a fantasy content manager for the National Lacrosse League. No amateur sports fan (yes you are) can thoroughly follow more than 3 sports, so I'm assuming football is you're weakest subject. Spreading yourself too thin there pal, maybe you should just stick to the sports you actually know since you keep referring back to them in comparison.

How did you make that calculation...

you do realize how many games you'll be watching even trying to keep up with just baseball basketball and football? Most people I know are only thoroughly interested in two major sports where they know complete stats, depth charts, etc.

 

[SSOG]

If there is no skill, then how can you be an "expert"? If there is no skill, then all people on the planet are equally "good" at fantasy football.

There are more fantasy sports than just football, you realize.

So are you saying that you're not a fantasy football expert, or that there's no such thing as fantasy football expertise?

 

[RCon]

If there is no skill, then how can you be an "expert"? If there is no skill, then all people on the planet are equally "good" at fantasy football.

There are more fantasy sports than just football, you realize.

You clearly referred to yourself as an "expert" regarding fantasy football.

He's just another clown who decided to start an account here just to get hits on his website. These things are usually shut down by now.

C'mon man, no need to be so insulting. I clearly came here to stimulate discussion or I would have just posted the link and left. I'm genuinely interested in talking about it and there have been a few really insightful replies.

You've conveniently ignored the insightful replies. Respond to SSOG's replies on the first page if you want to have actual discussion.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Yes in baseball and hockey leagues you need to have either a season or weekly pickup cap to prevent people from doing an add/drop strategy. That kind of behavior definitely ruins leagues when you see someone who has picked up and dropped 200+ pitchers of the course of the season just to get in extra innings.

Alexander (Xander756) Hinkley has been playing fantasy sports for more than 10 years. He currently works as the Fantasy Content Manager for the National Lacrosse League and has an interest in fantasy lacrosse, hockey, baseball, and football. You may contact Alex with your comments and questions.

not only do you list football LAST, but you're a fantasy content manager for the National Lacrosse League. No amateur sports fan (yes you are) can thoroughly follow more than 3 sports, so I'm assuming football is you're weakest subject. Spreading yourself too thin there pal, maybe you should just stick to the sports you actually know since you keep referring back to them in comparison.

How did you make that calculation...

you do realize how many games you'll be watching even trying to keep up with just baseball basketball and football? Most people I know are only thoroughly interested in two major sports where they know complete stats, depth charts, etc.

For starters, anecdotal evidence alone is dubious due to it's non-representative nature. But ignoring that, how many games does one have to watch of a sport in a season to follow it thoroughly? In my opinion, it's incredibly easy to follow a sport thoroughly without even watching a single game these days.

 

[da_budman]

so if FF is all luck explain to me your week 3 game:

New York Lions (3-0):

(QB) Peyton Manning - 21 fantasy points

(WR) Andre Johnson - 13 points

(WR) Dwayne Bowe - 7 points

(RB) Adrian Peterson - 10 points

(RB) Frank Gore - 5 points

(TE) Vernon Davis - 11 points

(K) Dan Bailey - 10 points

(DEF) Green Bay - 2 points

Total: 79

Opponent's Team (1-2):

(QB) Russell Wilson - 14 fantasy points

(WR) Robert Meachem - 4 points

(WR) Greg Jennings - 3 points

(RB) Darren McFadden - 17 points

(RB) Kevin Smith - 0 points

(TE) Jimmy Graham - 7 points

(K) Sebastian Janikowski - 10 points

(DEF) Philadelphia - 3 points

Total: 58

Did you just get lucky to have a much better team than this guy or did he just make horrible lineup decisions? (either is part skill btw)

And while we are at it:

your draft.

New York Lions

1. (10) Matt Forte RB

2. (11) Adrian Peterson RB

3. (30) Andre Johnson WR

4. (31) Peyton Manning QB

5. (50) Frank Gore RB

6. (51) Vernon Davis TE

7. (70) Peyton Hillis RB

8. (71) Dwayne Bowe WR

9. (90) Reggie Wayne WR

10. (91) Shonn Greene RB

11. (110) Matt Schaub QB

12. (111) Green Bay DEF

13. (130) Toby Gerhart RB

14. (131) Dan Bailey K

15. (150) Dallas Clark TE

16. (151) Santonio Holmes WR

Peyton Manning in the 4th in a 10 team league? Not much skill in making that pick I agree. Not because ff is all luck but apparently you dont have the skill. Dwayne Bowe in the 8th and Shonn greene a starting RB in the 10th????? Doesnt seem like the rest of your league has much skill either. Sounds like you guys dont know much about drafting FF teams and Im guessing managing them either in your league and instead of admitting not being very good at it, you claim its all luck.

P.s. poor form joining a site for the sole purpose of pimping your article in hopes of getting a rise ( and new readers) out a FF site and not at least admitting it up front.

 

[chinawildman]

A ridiculous statement. FF boils down to resources ( draft picks ), information, and talent evaluation.

Pluses in any combination of those categories automatically gives you an advantage on the competition.

Funny thing is, the losers always attribute their losses to luck, while the winners attribute it to skill. The fact is it's somewhere in the middle. If you're saying mostly luck, I guess we all know how your team's doing this year....

 

[footballnerd]

you do realize how many games you'll be watching even trying to keep up with just baseball basketball and football? Most people I know are only thoroughly interested in two major sports where they know complete stats, depth charts, etc.

For starters, anecdotal evidence alone is dubious due to it's non-representative nature. But ignoring that, how many games does one have to watch of a sport in a season to follow it thoroughly? In my opinion, it's incredibly easy to follow a sport thoroughly without even watching a single game these days.

can't argue that it is an assumption on my part, and this could be an interesting subject for a different thread. But can one truly give thorough analysis of player evaluation without watching a game? The only thing you'll be following is statistically trends unless you're putting in time to read all the articles. If you have time for that more props to you, but most would be in trouble if they devoted that much time. I'm talking about "armchair professional GM" type following of a sport here.

 

[RCon]

you do realize how many games you'll be watching even trying to keep up with just baseball basketball and football? Most people I know are only thoroughly interested in two major sports where they know complete stats, depth charts, etc.

For starters, anecdotal evidence alone is dubious due to it's non-representative nature. But ignoring that, how many games does one have to watch of a sport in a season to follow it thoroughly? In my opinion, it's incredibly easy to follow a sport thoroughly without even watching a single game these days.

can't argue that it is an assumption on my part, and this could be an interesting subject for a different thread. But can one truly give thorough analysis of player evaluation without watching a game? The only thing you'll be following is statistically trends unless you're putting in time to read all the articles. If you have time for that more props to you, but most would be in trouble if they devoted that much time.

I'm pretty sure that if I were single, had no kids, and no job, I could easily keep up with the four major sports enough to be an "expert" at fantasy sports in each, even without watching the games.

 

[zoonation]

Of course it is mostly luck. Surely everyone knows this. This is a hobby we share. Requires time and reading comprehension. Skill? Misnomer.

 

[footballnerd]

you do realize how many games you'll be watching even trying to keep up with just baseball basketball and football? Most people I know are only thoroughly interested in two major sports where they know complete stats, depth charts, etc.

For starters, anecdotal evidence alone is dubious due to it's non-representative nature. But ignoring that, how many games does one have to watch of a sport in a season to follow it thoroughly? In my opinion, it's incredibly easy to follow a sport thoroughly without even watching a single game these days.

can't argue that it is an assumption on my part, and this could be an interesting subject for a different thread. But can one truly give thorough analysis of player evaluation without watching a game? The only thing you'll be following is statistically trends unless you're putting in time to read all the articles. If you have time for that more props to you, but most would be in trouble if they devoted that much time.

I'm pretty sure that if I were single, had no kids, and no job, I could easily keep up with the four major sports enough to be an "expert" at fantasy sports in each, even without watching the games.

you can pump out an FBG site for four sports?

 

[Not Sleeping]

I think the poker analogy given earlier was spot on. Both fantasy football and poker are skill games with short-term variances due to luck. In the long term, the skilled managers will make the playoffs of their leagues more often than the unskilled managers. Now, once you're in the playoffs, all bets are off, and luck becomes a huge factor (I would argue this is the case in the real NFL as well).

For that one poster who said in poker, your pocket aces don't suddenly become worthless due to injury...that's not true. To extend the analogy, the poker equivalent of the devastating injury is when some unskilled player hangs around despite your heavy betting at the turn and catches an inside straight on the river. That's luck, and bad beats can happen any week in fantasy football and in any hand in poker. But the skilled player wins in the long run in both fantasy and poker.

If there were no differences in skill in fantasy football, I wouldn't get to mock the one guy in my 14-years-running league who drafts a kicker in the 8th or 9th round every year.

 

[scothawk]

I actually think a great comparison is poker(which I used to play a lot of).sure, on a specific hand(week) you can lose with a great hand or win with a horrible one. In the grand scheme of things though, one hand(week) is pretty irrelevant. The object of the game is to put yourself in the best possible situation to win and then hope your cards(or players) hold up. The best fantasy football players do not win every week, but they almost always make the playoffs, unless of course they are playing against equals in skill level. people who don't play believe poker is a game of chance, but the people that play a lot know differently, same situation here.

Poker is so much more accessible and frequent than fantasy leagues. It also allows the player the illusion that he is much better than his opponents and encourages him to get straight back up and bet again.I lost everything I had becuase my business partner was a poker addict.It wouldnt have been the same if he was a fantasy football addict.I can go on a lot more, but its not worth the board's time. Happy to talk privately even though it hurts like hell still.

 

[Not Sleeping]

I actually think a great comparison is poker(which I used to play a lot of).sure, on a specific hand(week) you can lose with a great hand or win with a horrible one. In the grand scheme of things though, one hand(week) is pretty irrelevant. The object of the game is to put yourself in the best possible situation to win and then hope your cards(or players) hold up. The best fantasy football players do not win every week, but they almost always make the playoffs, unless of course they are playing against equals in skill level. people who don't play believe poker is a game of chance, but the people that play a lot know differently, same situation here.

Poker is so much more accessible and frequent than fantasy leagues. It also allows the player the illusion that he is much better than his opponents and encourages him to get straight back up and bet again.I lost everything I had becuase my business partner was a poker addict.It wouldnt have been the same if he was a fantasy football addict.I can go on a lot more, but its not worth the board's time. Happy to talk privately even though it hurts like hell still.

I'm genuinely sorry for what happened to you. It sounds like it was devastating. But I'm not actually sure what your point is. Are you saying that poker is not actually a game of skill? It just seems like it is?Both games are games of skill and yes, both can be addictive. I know my productivity at work takes a nosedive between August and January.

 

[Warrior]

"mostly luck" is false

"more luck than other fantasy sports" is true

 

[xander756]

A ridiculous statement. FF boils down to resources ( draft picks ), information, and talent evaluation.Pluses in any combination of those categories automatically gives you an advantage on the competition. Funny thing is, the losers always attribute their losses to luck, while the winners attribute it to skill. The fact is it's somewhere in the middle. If you're saying mostly luck, I guess we all know how your team's doing this year....

Yes we do, as I have mentioned it several times in this thread. I am 3-0.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

A ridiculous statement. FF boils down to resources ( draft picks ), information, and talent evaluation.Pluses in any combination of those categories automatically gives you an advantage on the competition. Funny thing is, the losers always attribute their losses to luck, while the winners attribute it to skill. The fact is it's somewhere in the middle. If you're saying mostly luck, I guess we all know how your team's doing this year....

Yes we do, as I have mentioned it several times in this thread. I am 3-0.

Why don't you respond to any of the other posts? not pertaining to your record

 

[SSOG]

A ridiculous statement. FF boils down to resources ( draft picks ), information, and talent evaluation.Pluses in any combination of those categories automatically gives you an advantage on the competition. Funny thing is, the losers always attribute their losses to luck, while the winners attribute it to skill. The fact is it's somewhere in the middle. If you're saying mostly luck, I guess we all know how your team's doing this year....

Yes we do, as I have mentioned it several times in this thread. I am 3-0.

Out of curiosity, is that your only league? Just one lone 10-teamer?

 

[Ghosts]

I've been playing fantasy football for 30 years, mostly with the same group of guys. It's pretty obvious that some guys are better at this hobby than others.

The poker analogy is a good one. In the long run, the more skilled players do better.

 

[chinawildman]

A ridiculous statement. FF boils down to resources ( draft picks ), information, and talent evaluation.Pluses in any combination of those categories automatically gives you an advantage on the competition. Funny thing is, the losers always attribute their losses to luck, while the winners attribute it to skill. The fact is it's somewhere in the middle. If you're saying mostly luck, I guess we all know how your team's doing this year....

Yes we do, as I have mentioned it several times in this thread. I am 3-0.

I'm not sure I follow... so you're attributing your success to mostly luck? If that's the case I appreciate your humility but I never claimed luck and winning were mutually exclusive.The amount of info out there regarding FF info is overwhelming. But that's why most diehard FFers go to either deeper leagues (16 team) or dynasty, where the discrepancy in skill is much more evident. That said I appreciate the amount of luck in FF because that's what keeps coming back year after year. As Jim Carrey eloquently put it... "So you're saying there's a chance!"

 

[DoubleG]

I think the poker analogy given earlier was spot on. Both fantasy football and poker are skill games with short-term variances due to luck. In the long term, the skilled managers will make the playoffs of their leagues more often than the unskilled managers. Now, once you're in the playoffs, all bets are off, and luck becomes a huge factor (I would argue this is the case in the real NFL as well).

For that one poster who said in poker, your pocket aces don't suddenly become worthless due to injury...that's not true. To extend the analogy, the poker equivalent of the devastating injury is when some unskilled player hangs around despite your heavy betting at the turn and catches an inside straight on the river. That's luck, and bad beats can happen any week in fantasy football and in any hand in poker. But the skilled player wins in the long run in both fantasy and poker.

If there were no differences in skill in fantasy football, I wouldn't get to mock the one guy in my 14-years-running league who drafts a kicker in the 8th or 9th round every year.

While I generally agree with the premise that the "better" players win in FF, as in poker, the two are NOT the same. Anyone thinking they are, just go back to post 28. The problem with the analogy is that poker constantly resets (every hand you start new with 52 cards - that you know exactly what they are). The same is not even close to being true in FF. Every season is different - in fact every week is different based on injuries (on both teams - and on opposing teams playing against your players), even on weekly changes in weather.

Poker has variance - which generally evens out over time (and over millions of hands). There is no such absolute mathmatical truism like that in FF...none. Poker is a game of math. If you play well, you WILL win given enough time for variance to even out. That is not the case in FF - no matter how many leagues you play in. In fact, it could make it worse. If you like player X, Y and Z, and therefore draft some combination of the 3 in all 17 leagues your playing in. Suddenly player Y gets hurt and is going to be out for 4-6 weeks. In many leagues, especially if he was stud - guess what? You just lost a year. Not a hand, not a bad beat, not a bad run - an entire season. In other leagues you trade to compensate. But if it's a dynatsy league or keeper, you may be weakening your future position.

See the problem is, in poker, an ace is always an ace, a king always a king. In FF sometimes Chris Johnson rushes for 2000 yards - and sometimes he averages 2.4 YPC. In poker, certain things (the deck) are constant. There is no such constant in FF. Your projections, or players' previous performances is not guaranteed to happen - or is not even more likely than other outcomes.

 

[Thunderlips]

Is it really considered skill to look at a NFL teams depth chart and draft its backup RB in the last rounds of a draft?

 

[RCon]

Is it really considered skill to look at a NFL teams depth chart and draft its backup RB in the last rounds of a draft?

An awful lot of players don't do it. Call it whatever you like, I guess.

 

[chinawildman]

Is it really considered skill to look at a NFL teams depth chart and draft its backup RB in the last rounds of a draft?

If you're doing so indiscriminately then no, it isn't. But it takes skill to find the backups with the upside/opportunity combination you seek. For example this I would've never bothered with Daniel Thomas, whereas Mikell Leshoure and Ryan Williams offered much more opportunity and upside at a comparative price.

 

[cstu]

I think the poker analogy given earlier was spot on. Both fantasy football and poker are skill games with short-term variances due to luck. In the long term, the skilled managers will make the playoffs of their leagues more often than the unskilled managers. Now, once you're in the playoffs, all bets are off, and luck becomes a huge factor (I would argue this is the case in the real NFL as well).

For that one poster who said in poker, your pocket aces don't suddenly become worthless due to injury...that's not true. To extend the analogy, the poker equivalent of the devastating injury is when some unskilled player hangs around despite your heavy betting at the turn and catches an inside straight on the river. That's luck, and bad beats can happen any week in fantasy football and in any hand in poker. But the skilled player wins in the long run in both fantasy and poker.

If there were no differences in skill in fantasy football, I wouldn't get to mock the one guy in my 14-years-running league who drafts a kicker in the 8th or 9th round every year.

While I generally agree with the premise that the "better" players win in FF, as in poker, the two are NOT the same. Anyone thinking they are, just go back to post 28. The problem with the analogy is that poker constantly resets (every hand you start new with 52 cards - that you know exactly what they are). The same is not even close to being true in FF. Every season is different - in fact every week is different based on injuries (on both teams - and on opposing teams playing against your players), even on weekly changes in weather.

Poker has variance - which generally evens out over time (and over millions of hands). There is no such absolute mathmatical truism like that in FF...none. Poker is a game of math. If you play well, you WILL win given enough time for variance to even out. That is not the case in FF - no matter how many leagues you play in. In fact, it could make it worse. If you like player X, Y and Z, and therefore draft some combination of the 3 in all 17 leagues your playing in. Suddenly player Y gets hurt and is going to be out for 4-6 weeks. In many leagues, especially if he was stud - guess what? You just lost a year. Not a hand, not a bad beat, not a bad run - an entire season. In other leagues you trade to compensate. But if it's a dynatsy league or keeper, you may be weakening your future position.

See the problem is, in poker, an ace is always an ace, a king always a king. In FF sometimes Chris Johnson rushes for 2000 yards - and sometimes he averages 2.4 YPC. In poker, certain things (the deck) are constant. There is no such constant in FF. Your projections, or players' previous performances is not guaranteed to happen - or is not even more likely than other outcomes.

This is why I think FF is much more difficult than poker.

 

[xander756]

A ridiculous statement. FF boils down to resources ( draft picks ), information, and talent evaluation.Pluses in any combination of those categories automatically gives you an advantage on the competition. Funny thing is, the losers always attribute their losses to luck, while the winners attribute it to skill. The fact is it's somewhere in the middle. If you're saying mostly luck, I guess we all know how your team's doing this year....

Yes we do, as I have mentioned it several times in this thread. I am 3-0.

Why don't you respond to any of the other posts? not pertaining to your record

Because many are simply insults to me personally or my writing, I don't think those justify a response, do you? The others are just people's opinions (be they agreeing with or disagreeing with me). No point in arguing those, but I am just interested in hearing/reading them.

 

[Run It Up]

this is correct. more games means less variance and vice versa.the only thing incorrect here is your thread title. just because ff has the most luck involved as compaired to other sports does not mean it is 100% luck.

Almost 100 posts in this thread and the 2nd post was all that was needed...

 

[Thunderlips]

Is it really considered skill to look at a NFL teams depth chart and draft its backup RB in the last rounds of a draft?

If you're doing so indiscriminately then no, it isn't. But it takes skill to find the backups with the upside/opportunity combination you seek. For example this I would've never bothered with Daniel Thomas, whereas Mikell Leshoure and Ryan Williams offered much more opportunity and upside at a comparative price.

I'm not sure I buy that. Someone brought up throwing darts at the names of every player in the league and see if that team has success as a rebuff against the "luck" accusation. IMO, that's weak sauce. There's only a finite number of players/situations that even the most marginal fantasy player can or should expect to get production from. When you add that to the fact that now, those marginal fantasy players are hearing about "deeper sleepers" the minute anything happens to a 1st stringer during a game it makes it tougher for the more in depth fantasy player. I don't know what to call success in fantasy football, particularly in the overwhelming majority of "10-12 Team/TD Heavy/Redrafts" that MOST people play. I've seen people who pour over these webpages for hours win these leagues and I've seen people who have picked up magazines 5 minutes before the draft win. If it's H2H and TD-centric,(and by that, I'm meaning yardage bonuses....but TD's provide the shank of the points a player gets)...it's hard not to attribute the overwhelming majority of success to luck. I don't think it was always that way...but I think that A)there's just so much information to the casual viewer and B) the best methods of statistical analysis (primarily VBD) have become Gospel to the point that most first timers know the fantasy applications of it...even if they don't know what it exactly is.

That's not to say that there isn't ANY skill in FF....but to me, the real skill is in getting the casual player to play in leagues where the in depth player can utilize his volumes of knowledge...Deep rosters, more teams, less transactions, auction, Dynasty,Flex postions, Best Ball,....they should all be being pimped by the more in depth fantasy player.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Why don't you respond to any of the other posts? not pertaining to your record

Because many are simply insults to me personally or my writing, I don't think those justify a response, do you? The others are just people's opinions (be they agreeing with or disagreeing with me). No point in arguing those, but I am just interested in hearing/reading them.

I clearly came here to stimulate discussion or I would have just posted the link and left. I'm genuinely interested in talking about it and there have been a few really insightful replies.

Then delete the links to your site.

 

[x260bm]

so if FF is all luck explain to me your week 3 game:New York Lions (3-0):(QB) Peyton Manning - 21 fantasy points(WR) Andre Johnson - 13 points(WR) Dwayne Bowe - 7 points(RB) Adrian Peterson - 10 points(RB) Frank Gore - 5 points(TE) Vernon Davis - 11 points(K) Dan Bailey - 10 points(DEF) Green Bay - 2 pointsTotal: 79Opponent's Team (1-2):(QB) Russell Wilson - 14 fantasy points(WR) Robert Meachem - 4 points(WR) Greg Jennings - 3 points(RB) Darren McFadden - 17 points(RB) Kevin Smith - 0 points(TE) Jimmy Graham - 7 points(K) Sebastian Janikowski - 10 points(DEF) Philadelphia - 3 pointsTotal: 58Did you just get lucky to have a much better team than this guy or did he just make horrible lineup decisions? (either is part skill btw)And while we are at it:your draft.New York Lions1. (10) Matt Forte RB2. (11) Adrian Peterson RB3. (30) Andre Johnson WR4. (31) Peyton Manning QB5. (50) Frank Gore RB6. (51) Vernon Davis TE7. (70) Peyton Hillis RB8. (71) Dwayne Bowe WR9. (90) Reggie Wayne WR10. (91) Shonn Greene RB11. (110) Matt Schaub QB12. (111) Green Bay DEF13. (130) Toby Gerhart RB14. (131) Dan Bailey K15. (150) Dallas Clark TE16. (151) Santonio Holmes WRPeyton Manning in the 4th in a 10 team league? Not much skill in making that pick I agree. Not because ff is all luck but apparently you dont have the skill. Dwayne Bowe in the 8th and Shonn greene a starting RB in the 10th????? Doesnt seem like the rest of your league has much skill either. Sounds like you guys dont know much about drafting FF teams and Im guessing managing them either in your league and instead of admitting not being very good at it, you claim its all luck.P.s. poor form joining a site for the sole purpose of pimping your article in hopes of getting a rise ( and new readers) out a FF site and not at least admitting it up front.

3-0 in that league isn't any more impressive than writing about fantasy lacrosse. You're going to have do a lot better than that before you proclaim yourself as a fantasy football expert.

 

[SSOG]

I think the poker analogy given earlier was spot on. Both fantasy football and poker are skill games with short-term variances due to luck. In the long term, the skilled managers will make the playoffs of their leagues more often than the unskilled managers. Now, once you're in the playoffs, all bets are off, and luck becomes a huge factor (I would argue this is the case in the real NFL as well).

For that one poster who said in poker, your pocket aces don't suddenly become worthless due to injury...that's not true. To extend the analogy, the poker equivalent of the devastating injury is when some unskilled player hangs around despite your heavy betting at the turn and catches an inside straight on the river. That's luck, and bad beats can happen any week in fantasy football and in any hand in poker. But the skilled player wins in the long run in both fantasy and poker.

If there were no differences in skill in fantasy football, I wouldn't get to mock the one guy in my 14-years-running league who drafts a kicker in the 8th or 9th round every year.

While I generally agree with the premise that the "better" players win in FF, as in poker, the two are NOT the same. Anyone thinking they are, just go back to post 28. The problem with the analogy is that poker constantly resets (every hand you start new with 52 cards - that you know exactly what they are). The same is not even close to being true in FF. Every season is different - in fact every week is different based on injuries (on both teams - and on opposing teams playing against your players), even on weekly changes in weather.

Poker has variance - which generally evens out over time (and over millions of hands). There is no such absolute mathmatical truism like that in FF...none. Poker is a game of math. If you play well, you WILL win given enough time for variance to even out. That is not the case in FF - no matter how many leagues you play in. In fact, it could make it worse. If you like player X, Y and Z, and therefore draft some combination of the 3 in all 17 leagues your playing in. Suddenly player Y gets hurt and is going to be out for 4-6 weeks. In many leagues, especially if he was stud - guess what? You just lost a year. Not a hand, not a bad beat, not a bad run - an entire season. In other leagues you trade to compensate. But if it's a dynatsy league or keeper, you may be weakening your future position.

See the problem is, in poker, an ace is always an ace, a king always a king. In FF sometimes Chris Johnson rushes for 2000 yards - and sometimes he averages 2.4 YPC. In poker, certain things (the deck) are constant. There is no such constant in FF. Your projections, or players' previous performances is not guaranteed to happen - or is not even more likely than other outcomes.

But in poker you aren't just playing the cards. It's not blackjack. You're also playing the other players' bets. Any time you're dealing with other humans, all constants go out the window. Both hobbies have constants. Aces always beat kings, TDs are always 6 points. Both hobbies have random chance. Sometimes you flop an inside straight draw. Sometimes a routine carry leads to a career-ending injury. Both hobbies leave you scrambling when things don't go your way. Both require reading your opponents. Fantasy football isn't a perfect analogy for poker, but there's no such thing as a "perfect analogy". It's an oxymoron. The only perfect analogy for poker is... poker. An analogy is a comparison between two different things that share certain similarities, used to draw attention to those similarities and clarify otherwise difficult concepts. And yes, I think a season of fantasy football is analogous to a hand of poker in that both are games of skill masquerading as games of chance.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

But in poker you aren't just playing the cards. It's not blackjack. You're also playing the other players' bets. Any time you're dealing with other humans, all constants go out the window.

Both hobbies have constants. Aces always beat kings, TDs are always 6 points. Both hobbies have random chance. Sometimes you flop an inside straight draw. Sometimes a routine carry leads to a career-ending injury. Both hobbies leave you scrambling when things don't go your way. Both require reading your opponents. Fantasy football isn't a perfect analogy for poker, but there's no such thing as a "perfect analogy". It's an oxymoron. The only perfect analogy for poker is... poker. An analogy is a comparison between two different things that share certain similarities, used to draw attention to those similarities and clarify otherwise difficult concepts. And yes, I think a season of fantasy football is analogous to a hand of poker in that both are games of skill masquerading as games of chance.

Quantitatively, in terms of how much of the results are explained by skill versus chance, I'd say that a season of fantasy football is analogous to about a 4-hour session of live poker.Otherwise,

 

[matuski]

Better idea: write down a list of every offensive player in the NFL. Throw darts at it. Draft who the dart lands on. If FF was all luck, you should be competitive. You'd better hope you're right, though, because you'll need a whole lot of luck after spending your first 7 picks on Nick Foles, Jeremiah Johnson, Devin Hester, Michael Floyd, Blaine Gabbart, Kyle Orton, and Randy Moss. I think it's Calbear who is always saying that FF takes a lot of skill, it's just that most owners piggyback off of someone else's skill (I.e. draft from a cheatsheet). I don't have to have any skill in picking stocks if I just give Warren Buffet my money and let him invest it for me: this does not mean that picking stocks doesn't take skill.

even if applicable, this is pretty irrelevant to the spirit of the discussion.

I don't think so. Nobody would seriously suggest 10-20 years ago that fantasy took no skill. That's because, back then, most people had not yet begun outsourcing their skill-based decisions. Now people make all their decisions from a cheatsheet and think fantasy takes no skill, but that cheatsheet was not created by chance. Owners without skill can now borrow someone else's, but they still need skill (and a whole lot of it) to be competitive.

You are mistaking being informed for being skilled.You can improve your odds relative to others by being informed, but this does not in the least bit change the fact that every single week your performance is based largely on luck.

 

[chinawildman]

Is it really considered skill to look at a NFL teams depth chart and draft its backup RB in the last rounds of a draft?

If you're doing so indiscriminately then no, it isn't. But it takes skill to find the backups with the upside/opportunity combination you seek. For example this I would've never bothered with Daniel Thomas, whereas Mikell Leshoure and Ryan Williams offered much more opportunity and upside at a comparative price.

I'm not sure I buy that. Someone brought up throwing darts at the names of every player in the league and see if that team has success as a rebuff against the "luck" accusation. IMO, that's weak sauce. There's only a finite number of players/situations that even the most marginal fantasy player can or should expect to get production from. When you add that to the fact that now, those marginal fantasy players are hearing about "deeper sleepers" the minute anything happens to a 1st stringer during a game it makes it tougher for the more in depth fantasy player.

Just because it's a more level playing field does not exclude the importance of skill. The NFL has much greater parity than it did in the 80s, but it doesn't mean cream doesn't rise to the top, and it certainly isn't attributed to just luck.IMO the volume of information available makes FF more enjoyable, because since fantasy information and advice is so readily available, the research of obscure relevant information has almost become a game in and of itself. Take the following link for example: http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/redskins-watch/2012/sep/28/coaches-film-breakdown-alfred-morris-affecting-jor/

The casual FFer will probably not pay 2 seconds of attention to the content of that article. But for me I found this line intriguing:

"... Morris is Griffin's first option in the progression on this passing play ..."

Hey maybe I'm reading too much into things, but this tells me that there are at least plans to get Morris involved in the redskins pass game. Whether he can succeed in this role is up in the air, but at least now I have a shred of info (however small) that gives me a leg up on any potential trades. Maybe by midseason Morris is catching passes routinely as an every down back, maybe it's all just smoke. But if you're willing to accept that FF is a game of chance, then you must also accept that information is your greatest asset. And acquiring information has nothing to do with luck.

 

[DoubleG]

But in poker you aren't just playing the cards. It's not blackjack. You're also playing the other players' bets. Any time you're dealing with other humans, all constants go out the window.

Both hobbies have constants. Aces always beat kings, TDs are always 6 points. Both hobbies have random chance. Sometimes you flop an inside straight draw. Sometimes a routine carry leads to a career-ending injury. Both hobbies leave you scrambling when things don't go your way. Both require reading your opponents. Fantasy football isn't a perfect analogy for poker, but there's no such thing as a "perfect analogy". It's an oxymoron. The only perfect analogy for poker is... poker. An analogy is a comparison between two different things that share certain similarities, used to draw attention to those similarities and clarify otherwise difficult concepts. And yes, I think a season of fantasy football is analogous to a hand of poker in that both are games of skill masquerading as games of chance.

Quantitatively, in terms of how much of the results are explained by skill versus chance, I'd say that a season of fantasy football is analogous to about a 4-hour session of live poker.Otherwise,

This I agree with - mainly, because in a 4 hour session of live poker, variance still plays a huge part.