Fantasy football winning probability (1 Viewer)

[sa37no1]

Anyone know what the winning probability is if you get a 1st round bye? Every year in my leagues seems like the winner had the bye

 

[mlball77]

Without having all the details, I'm assuming you are talking about the playoffs at the end of the FF season and a six-team format… where the two highest-seeded teams get byes.

Holding all other things equal and assuming every matchup is a 50/50 probability (which in the real world is clearly not the case):

The two teams getting first round byes each have a 25% chance of winning the league and the 4 non-bye teams each have a 12.5% chance of winning the league. So overall, there is a 50% chance the league champion will be one of the two bye teams and a 50% chance that it will be one of the FOUR non-bye teams.

As a team owner, getting a first rd bye in the 6-team playoff format roughly doubles your odds of winning the league.

I could be confused… but this is what I came up with using basic probability.

 

[JD8p]

I don't know that you can really come up with a general probability for the teams that get byes winning the championship - and I definitely wouldn't use an "all things being equal" basis.

In the end, the best teams usually get the byes, so odds are, they have the best shot at winning assuming they stay healthy.

 

[one time]

Without having all the details, I'm assuming you are talking about the playoffs at the end of the FF season and a six-team format… where the two highest-seeded teams get byes.Holding all other things equal and assuming every matchup is a 50/50 probability (which in the real world is clearly not the case):The two teams getting first round byes each have a 25% chance of winning the league and the 4 non-bye teams each have a 12.5% chance of winning the league. So overall, there is a 50% chance the league champion will be one of the two bye teams and a 50% chance that it will be one of the FOUR non-bye teams.As a team owner, getting a first rd bye in the 6-team playoff format roughly doubles your odds of winning the league.I could be confused… but this is what I came up with using basic probability.

Correct. Chance of winning a game is 1/2. The chance of winning all 3 weeks (no bye) is 1/(2^3) or 1/8(12.5%).The chance of winning all 2 weeks(bye) is 1/(2^2) or 1/4(25%)However, they got a bye for a reason so on average a "bye team" has a better chance than a "non-bye team".

 

[mlball77]

I don't know that you can really come up with a general probability for the teams that get byes winning the championship - and I definitely wouldn't use an "all things being equal" basis.In the end, the best teams usually get the byes, so odds are, they have the best shot at winning assuming they stay healthy.

Oh I agree that the best teams generally get byes and have better odds of winning... that is why I stipulated "all things being equal" and assuming the probablility for winning each game is 50/50... which is not reflective of the real world. When you factor in matchups and injuries etc., it totally changes things.

 

[TheAssassin]

Without having all the details, I'm assuming you are talking about the playoffs at the end of the FF season and a six-team format… where the two highest-seeded teams get byes.Holding all other things equal and assuming every matchup is a 50/50 probability (which in the real world is clearly not the case):The two teams getting first round byes each have a 25% chance of winning the league and the 4 non-bye teams each have a 12.5% chance of winning the league. So overall, there is a 50% chance the league champion will be one of the two bye teams and a 50% chance that it will be one of the FOUR non-bye teams.As a team owner, getting a first rd bye in the 6-team playoff format roughly doubles your odds of winning the league.I could be confused… but this is what I came up with using basic probability.

Exactly correct. It is also safe to assume that ON AVERAGE the top 2 teams are better than the bottom 4 teams and equal to each other. If a top 2 team has a 60% chance to beat a lower seed then his overall chance is 30% to win the league and the lower 4 have 10% chances each.

 

[sa37no1]

I would love to see how it turned out if MFL would have the stats of how many leagues they had and how many winners had the bye....

 

[mlball77]

Without having all the details, I'm assuming you are talking about the playoffs at the end of the FF season and a six-team format… where the two highest-seeded teams get byes.Holding all other things equal and assuming every matchup is a 50/50 probability (which in the real world is clearly not the case):The two teams getting first round byes each have a 25% chance of winning the league and the 4 non-bye teams each have a 12.5% chance of winning the league. So overall, there is a 50% chance the league champion will be one of the two bye teams and a 50% chance that it will be one of the FOUR non-bye teams.As a team owner, getting a first rd bye in the 6-team playoff format roughly doubles your odds of winning the league.I could be confused… but this is what I came up with using basic probability.

Exactly correct. It is also safe to assume that ON AVERAGE the top 2 teams are better than the bottom 4 teams and equal to each other. If a top 2 team has a 60% chance to beat a lower seed then his overall chance is 30% to win the league and the lower 4 have 10% chances each.

 

[joetrow]

The league I play in last 7 years:

2008: 6 team playoff 1&2 bye week 1

Team #3 wins, #1 team finished #2, #2 finished #4

2007: 8 team playoff no byes

Team #8 wins, #1 and #2 eliminated first week

2006: 8 team playoff no byes

Team #5 wins, #1 finished #8, #2 finished #2

2005: 4 team playoff no byes

Team #4 wins, #1 finished #3, #2 finished #2

2004: 8 team playoff no byes

Team #1 wins, #2 finished #3

2003: 8 team playoff no byes

Team #1 wins, #2 finished #2

2002: 8 team playoff no byes

Team #3 wins, #1 finished #4, #2 finished #7

I think the best saying about fantasy football is that it takes skill to make it to the playoffs, and it takes luck to win the playoffs. You can make percentages for anything, but I think winning the playoffs is a matter of luck. With the exception of a 1st week bye, everyone has the same amount of chances of winning the league once in the playoffs.

 

[JD8p]

I don't know that you can really come up with a general probability for the teams that get byes winning the championship - and I definitely wouldn't use an "all things being equal" basis.In the end, the best teams usually get the byes, so odds are, they have the best shot at winning assuming they stay healthy.

Oh I agree that the best teams generally get byes and have better odds of winning... that is why I stipulated "all things being equal" and assuming the probablility for winning each game is 50/50... which is not reflective of the real world. When you factor in matchups and injuries etc., it totally changes things.

Pretty much...then there is always that 5 or 6 seed that got really hot late and bump off one of the top teams which throws the whole thing out of whack - it seems to happen every year in my leagues.