Favre Retirement Fantasy Impact (1 Viewer)

[_4_]

A. Favre no longer among the top 10 QB's picked (would have been had he come back)

B. Where does Rogers fall in the hierarchy of the draft? Do the Packers change their offense significantly to accomodate for him?

C. How far does Greg Jennings fall?

D. How far does Donald Driver fall?

E. How far does Ryan Grant fall, or does he rise?

F. Is Donald Lee now off the board?

G. Is James Jones now off the board?

H. Will the Packers try and trade up using their 1 and either one or both of their twos for an impact playmaker?

 

[Chachi]

F. Is Donald Lee now off the board?

Value goes UP, UP, UP.Vikings, Bears, Lions DEF also gets good bumps up.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

C. How far does Greg Jennings fall?

I think he goes up. Jennings will be Rogers main target.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

C. How far does Greg Jennings fall?

I think he goes up. Jennings will be Rogers main target.

What do you base this opinion on?

 

[Ripleys]

James Jones becomes the #1 WR

 

[Mr. Peterson]

James Jones becomes the #1 WR

Now this is just silly.And to why I feel Jennings will become the #1 target for Rogers?Because Jennings might already be the #1 there reguardless if Favre is there or not. And when Rogers had the opportunity he seemed to look at Jennings the most. I think those two kinda have that chemistry thing going already.

 

[moderated]

Grant - same

Jennings - up

Driver - way down

J.Jones - same

Rodgers can run this offense extremely well. I really don't see the Pack losing much steam with the loss of Favre. This offense is damn good and under-rated due to many thinking that Favre was what made it great last year. He was a part of it but the whole offense is a finely tuned machine which Rodgers will have no trouble running after learning for a few years.

Why Driver will go way down - Favre loved him and locked onto him when their were much better options available. Drivers value was hugely inflated due to having Favre at QB, without him the other guys will get a lot more opportunities.

Buy low on guys like Grant/Jennings if people are selling, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see them improve on last years numbers.

 

[pollardsvision]

i don't know much about aaron rodgers' skill level, but if he has any skill at all, there's some potential value there. he's got the keys to a talented offense in a system that he should know well by now.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Driver and Grants value down ALOT.

Jennings and Jones same, maybe up a bit.

 

[FUBAR]

James Jones becomes the #1 WR

Now this is just silly.And to why I feel Jennings will become the #1 target for Rogers?Because Jennings might already be the #1 there reguardless if Favre is there or not. And when Rogers had the opportunity he seemed to look at Jennings the most. I think those two kinda have that chemistry thing going already.

I'll agree with most of this, but Jennings was Favre's boy in the red zone. I don't see him getting 12 TDs with Rodgers. He should get more than 53 receptions, but lose 4-6 TDs, gain 15-20 receptions, and you have a pretty good WR, but not probably a top 20 like he was in many leagues last year.

 

[FavreCo]

C. How far does Greg Jennings fall?

I think he goes up. Jennings will be Rogers main target.

What do you base this opinion on?

My guess is he's basing it off the 1/2 Rodgers played vs. Dallas. Rodgers was locked in on Jennings. I'll play a wait and see. Odds currently favor Jennings as the #1 target.

 

[Burning Sensation]

James Jones becomes the #1 WR

Now this is just silly.And to why I feel Jennings will become the #1 target for Rogers?Because Jennings might already be the #1 there reguardless if Favre is there or not. And when Rogers had the opportunity he seemed to look at Jennings the most. I think those two kinda have that chemistry thing going already.

I'll agree with most of this, but Jennings was Favre's boy in the red zone. I don't see him getting 12 TDs with Rodgers. He should get more than 53 receptions, but lose 4-6 TDs, gain 15-20 receptions, and you have a pretty good WR, but not probably a top 20 like he was in many leagues last year.

Subtracting 4 TD's and adding 15 catches at his 17 YPC, would give him 68 catches, 1170 and 8 TD's. Giving him 168 FF points, four more than he had last year.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

A. Favre no longer among the top 10 QB's picked (would have been had he come back)

not sure of your question here

B. Where does Rogers fall in the hierarchy of the draft? Do the Packers change their offense significantly to accomodate for him?

15-18 range, maybe even lower. YES

C. How far does Greg Jennings fall?

20-25 range

D. How far does Donald Driver fall?

wow, out of the top 36 probably, PPR maybe a little higher

E. How far does Ryan Grant fall, or does he rise?

I wasnt a true believer before, I would take him until roun2, but he'll be long gone by then

F. Is Donald Lee now off the board?

Off the board? 10 man league maybe. He's a boarder line stater in 12 man + leagues

G. Is James Jones now off the board?

Off the board? No.

H. Will the Packers try and trade up using their 1 and either one or both of their twos for an impact playmaker?

I have no idea

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

First of all his name is Aaron Rodgers.



Rodgers should be taken as a #2 QB. Can't trust him just yet. High upside and downside right now.

Chances are that Greg Jennings wasn't going to repeat his 12 TD performance with Favre. I do see him increasing his receptions though and 1250/9 may be a realistic projection for him.

I see Drivers' receptions fallilng somewhat, but he should easily improve on his TD numbers from last year. 1000/5 is realistic IMO.

Grant should stay the same IMO. If you really liked Grant before there a plenty of reasons to continue to like him. Good skill players around him. Without Favre the Pack may rely more on the run. However, without Favre it is also possible that scoring opportunities may fall. A wash IMO.

This will not change Ted Thompsons' draft strategy. Build through the draft for the future....always, always, always.

 

[FUBAR]

James Jones becomes the #1 WR

Now this is just silly.And to why I feel Jennings will become the #1 target for Rogers?Because Jennings might already be the #1 there reguardless if Favre is there or not. And when Rogers had the opportunity he seemed to look at Jennings the most. I think those two kinda have that chemistry thing going already.

I'll agree with most of this, but Jennings was Favre's boy in the red zone. I don't see him getting 12 TDs with Rodgers. He should get more than 53 receptions, but lose 4-6 TDs, gain 15-20 receptions, and you have a pretty good WR, but not probably a top 20 like he was in many leagues last year.

Subtracting 4 TD's and adding 15 catches at his 17 YPC, would give him 68 catches, 1170 and 8 TD's. Giving him 168 FF points, four more than he had last year.

depends on your scoring. I didn't say earlier, but I don't see him keeping his 17.4 ypc average without Favre. Out of the true starters, only Holmes and Galloway had a better ypc; I just can't see that continuing. I would suspect we'd see closer to 15-16 ypc, let's say 15.5 - Chad Johnson / Lee Evans territory. Roughly 68/1054/8 as a high end estimate - and that's assuming Rodgers doesn't suck.

 

[_4_]

I'll agree with most of this, but Jennings was Favre's boy in the red zone. I don't see him getting 12 TDs with Rodgers. He should get more than 53 receptions, but lose 4-6 TDs, gain 15-20 receptions, and you have a pretty good WR, but not probably a top 20 like he was in many leagues last year.

I think this is a very accurate assessment....As for Rodgers...I am more confident than most of you in terms of his potential production....I am not ready to put numbers to it - I have to see how they draft...but I am confident he will be top 15 by the end of the year.

 

[H.K.]

My guess is he's basing it off the 1/2 Rodgers played vs. Dallas. Rodgers was locked in on Jennings. I'll play a wait and see. Odds currently favor Jennings as the #1 target.

I stole this cut and paste from another thread, scruptrulescent (or however you spell it) is the guy who posted it initially

Who Rodgers went to in the Dallas game.Driver: thrown to 7 times, 7 catchesJennings: thrown to 6 times, 5 catches (including a td)Lee: thrown to 4 times, 3 catchesJones: thrown to 2 times, 1 catchRobinson: thrown to 1 time, 1 catchMartin: thrown to 1 time, 0 catchesRB's: thrown to 3 times, 2 catchesOnly 2 throws were relatively deep to Lee and Jennings, both were incomplete.Was pretty accurate even though passes were short. Decent timing.

IMHO Driver will be waaayyyy undervalued next season.

 

[gman8343]

My guess is he's basing it off the 1/2 Rodgers played vs. Dallas. Rodgers was locked in on Jennings. I'll play a wait and see. Odds currently favor Jennings as the #1 target.

I stole this cut and paste from another thread, scruptrulescent (or however you spell it) is the guy who posted it initially

Who Rodgers went to in the Dallas game.Driver: thrown to 7 times, 7 catchesJennings: thrown to 6 times, 5 catches (including a td)Lee: thrown to 4 times, 3 catchesJones: thrown to 2 times, 1 catchRobinson: thrown to 1 time, 1 catchMartin: thrown to 1 time, 0 catchesRB's: thrown to 3 times, 2 catchesOnly 2 throws were relatively deep to Lee and Jennings, both were incomplete.Was pretty accurate even though passes were short. Decent timing.

IMHO Driver will be waaayyyy undervalued next season.

Good info here.

 

[zamboni]

It's probably pointless to look at one mere half of one game to get a sense of who will be the primary WR beneficiary, not to mention how Rodgers will do as the full-time starter.

That said, I think Jennings has essentially become the #1 WR and will probably cement that role going forward. Still, as mentioned by others, the 12 TDs are probably unrealistic to expect, but the receptions and yards may rise. So maybe it's a wash to slightly up fantasy-wise.

I agree that Driver's value goes down, as he was Favre's boy until Jennings really ascended. Driver will still get his, but the days of 80+ receptions and 1000+ yards IMO are in the past.

I actually think Jones may be the one undervalued here. He was just a rookie last year, but showed some skills. For all we know, he could eventually replace Driver at the #2 spot and even evolve to become an equal target of Rodgers. Jones is a guy I'm going to keep my eye on.

As for Grant, I think his value doesn't change much. I think the team leans on him more as Rodgers gets his feet wet, but will also face a lot more 8-man fronts.

I think Lee's value also stays about the same. He'll get some passes, but has three quality WRs to compete with.

 

[H.K.]

It's probably pointless to look at one mere half of one game to get a sense of who will be the primary WR beneficiary, not to mention how Rodgers will do as the full-time starter.That said, I think Jennings has essentially become the #1 WR and will probably cement that role going forward. Still, as mentioned by others, the 12 TDs are probably unrealistic to expect, but the receptions and yards may rise. So maybe it's a wash to slightly up fantasy-wise.I agree that Driver's value goes down, as he was Favre's boy until Jennings really ascended. Driver will still get his, but the days of 80+ receptions and 1000+ yards IMO are in the past.I actually think Jones may be the one undervalued here. He was just a rookie last year, but showed some skills. For all we know, he could eventually replace Driver at the #2 spot and even evolve to become an equal target of Rodgers. Jones is a guy I'm going to keep my eye on.

I agree that using one half of football for analysis of Rodgers is not a good barometer for things next year. However, we do know they'll run the same offense with pretty much the same personnel. Here is what happened last season:2007 targets per gameriver 8.1Jennings 6.5Jones 5.02007 Red zone targetsDriver 17 for 2 TD'sJones 11 for 0 TD'sJennings 11 for 6 TD's I have no idea why people feel Jennings has displaced Driver as the #1 guy in Green Bay because his target numbers are closer to WR3 than they are WR1.

 

[zamboni]

I have no idea why people feel Jennings has displaced Driver as the #1 guy in Green Bay because his target numbers are closer to WR3 than they are WR1.

True, Driver's targets were up there - even more than Jennings over the full season. But it just seemed that down the stretch, Favre was leaning more and more on Jennings. Maybe it was a modest changing of the guard, maybe not. Time will tell.

 

[H.K.]

I have no idea why people feel Jennings has displaced Driver as the #1 guy in Green Bay because his target numbers are closer to WR3 than they are WR1.

True, Driver's targets were up there - even more than Jennings over the full season. But it just seemed that down the stretch, Favre was leaning more and more on Jennings. Maybe it was a modest changing of the guard, maybe not. Time will tell.

The numbers say otherwise.The last five games Driver and Jennings played in the regular season, Driver had 42 (8.4 pg) targets to Jennings' 29 (5.8 pg).

Driver was targeted more than Jennings in each of those games, as well.

There is zero evidence that Jennings is the #1 WR in GB, nor was emerging or trending in that direction.

Jennings will be the most over-rated WR in FF next year based on what I've seen on this board.

 

[zamboni]

I have no idea why people feel Jennings has displaced Driver as the #1 guy in Green Bay because his target numbers are closer to WR3 than they are WR1.

True, Driver's targets were up there - even more than Jennings over the full season. But it just seemed that down the stretch, Favre was leaning more and more on Jennings. Maybe it was a modest changing of the guard, maybe not. Time will tell.

The numbers say otherwise.The last five games Driver and Jennings played in the regular season, Driver had 42 targets to Jennings' 29.

Driver was targeted more than Jennings in each of those games, as well.

There is zero evidence that Jennings is the #1 WR in GB, nor was emerging or trending in that direction.

Jennings will be the most over-rated WR in FF next year based on what I've seen on this board.

Fair enough. I don't disagree about Jennings being overvalued. As noted before, I think Jones may be the one who could have the most value. We have no idea who Rodgers will favor, and it could be any of them.

 

[H.K.]

We have no idea who Rodgers will favor, and it could be any of them.

I agree. I also think it's more a question of playcalling and who is playing the x, y, or z. I would not expect any of the WR's to change their roles based on their skill sets, though, and would expect the shorter routes to be more prevalent for two reasons: 1) Favre is gone & 2) they are safer. So who benefits in that offense from shorter throws?More to the point, look at why Jennings was such a hot FF play last year: Six TD's longer than 40 yards (57, 41, 82, 60, 80, 44). That is a total of 6 receptions for 364 yards and 6 TD's.It's amazing what the big play did for his FF value, basically one third of his entire FF production came from six plays. I am not saying the famous "take out his big plays" statement....I'm saying the opposite: look at them extremely closely and see how they are impacted by the recent course of events.

 

[Buckeyedawgs]

I think Rodgers is going to surprise you much more then anyone here is giving credit.

The big issue to me is can he stay healthy? You guys are forgetting that offensive line was tremoundous.

I see Tony Romo written all over him! YPC will be down over lasat year for receivers but I expect targets to stay about the same over all. Grant per game averages should stay the same. His Td's might be up as GB will call less red zone pass plays. Td's receivers will probably go down or in Drivers case remain around the same.

Just my guts....

 

[sho nuff]

Hard to really tell who will be his goto guy.

You cannot just judge on the one Dallas game or what he has yet done.

He may have been more comfortable last year with someone like Jennings or Jones since he probably practiced more with them before than say Driver.

This year being the guy and always running the #1 team will change some things.

He may have the Driver/Favre relationship with Jennings...or Jones...or Lee...or hell, Driver.

Driver is a solid WR, who gets open, makes the touch catches, will fight for the ball, and makes yards after the catch. If Rodgers ends up more comfortable throwing to him...well, i think you know.

I think he may be undervalued this year and Jennings will probably be overvalued.

Hard to say on Grant. But 3rd year of this line being together that has been improving. Will probably see more people in the box to try and stop him. I think his yardage may take a small hit, but TD he might have more value as they may not throw as often on early downs near the goalline as they used to.

 

[dmac37]

Packer homers.

With Driver being 33, what kind of shape is he in and has he lost a step at all in the last few years. Do you think he can stay near his current level for the next 3 years?

 

[pinda]

i'll put a nugget out there and go on record and say that Driver is hurt less than Jennings percentage wise. No chance that Rodgers can match Favre's ability to throwing the deep ball. If anything, I think he relies more on the over the middle/possession WR and a check off TE.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

My guess is he's basing it off the 1/2 Rodgers played vs. Dallas. Rodgers was locked in on Jennings. I'll play a wait and see. Odds currently favor Jennings as the #1 target.

I stole this cut and paste from another thread, scruptrulescent (or however you spell it) is the guy who posted it initially

Who Rodgers went to in the Dallas game.Driver: thrown to 7 times, 7 catchesJennings: thrown to 6 times, 5 catches (including a td)Lee: thrown to 4 times, 3 catchesJones: thrown to 2 times, 1 catchRobinson: thrown to 1 time, 1 catchMartin: thrown to 1 time, 0 catchesRB's: thrown to 3 times, 2 catchesOnly 2 throws were relatively deep to Lee and Jennings, both were incomplete.Was pretty accurate even though passes were short. Decent timing.

IMHO Driver will be waaayyyy undervalued next season.

You turd, I busted my hump to go over the play-by-play in that game only to have you get the glory when it so perfectly puts the kibosh on everyone's gloom and doom on Driver's outlook.

 

[Johnny Ice]

My guess is he's basing it off the 1/2 Rodgers played vs. Dallas. Rodgers was locked in on Jennings. I'll play a wait and see. Odds currently favor Jennings as the #1 target.

I stole this cut and paste from another thread, scruptrulescent (or however you spell it) is the guy who posted it initially

Who Rodgers went to in the Dallas game.Driver: thrown to 7 times, 7 catchesJennings: thrown to 6 times, 5 catches (including a td)Lee: thrown to 4 times, 3 catchesJones: thrown to 2 times, 1 catchRobinson: thrown to 1 time, 1 catchMartin: thrown to 1 time, 0 catchesRB's: thrown to 3 times, 2 catchesOnly 2 throws were relatively deep to Lee and Jennings, both were incomplete.Was pretty accurate even though passes were short. Decent timing.

IMHO Driver will be waaayyyy undervalued next season.

You turd, I busted my hump to go over the play-by-play in that game only to have you get the glory when it so perfectly puts the kibosh on everyone's gloom and doom on Driver's outlook.

I just sat back and waited for someone to post it because I remembered that game very well since I started Driver that week. There is no doubt in my mind Rogers will continue to look for Driver underneath to move the sticks just like he did that night in Dallas.

 

[H.K.]

My guess is he's basing it off the 1/2 Rodgers played vs. Dallas. Rodgers was locked in on Jennings. I'll play a wait and see. Odds currently favor Jennings as the #1 target.

I stole this cut and paste from another thread, scruptrulescent (or however you spell it) is the guy who posted it initially

Who Rodgers went to in the Dallas game.Driver: thrown to 7 times, 7 catchesJennings: thrown to 6 times, 5 catches (including a td)Lee: thrown to 4 times, 3 catchesJones: thrown to 2 times, 1 catchRobinson: thrown to 1 time, 1 catchMartin: thrown to 1 time, 0 catchesRB's: thrown to 3 times, 2 catchesOnly 2 throws were relatively deep to Lee and Jennings, both were incomplete.Was pretty accurate even though passes were short. Decent timing.

IMHO Driver will be waaayyyy undervalued next season.

You turd, I busted my hump to go over the play-by-play in that game only to have you get the glory when it so perfectly puts the kibosh on everyone's gloom and doom on Driver's outlook.

C'mon, I gave you credit in the post! I just misspelled your name in the process...

 

[dmac37]

Scrumptrulescent and H.K., thanks for all the great information. I decided to pull off a trade giving up Berrian for Driver based on a lot of the information you guys provided in this topic and the Berrian topic. I also own Rice and did not want 2 WR's from the Vikings on my roster.

 

[reg]

F. Is Donald Lee now off the board?

Value goes UP, UP, UP.Vikings, Bears, Lions DEF also gets good bumps up.

Less INT's for them though.

 

[BigTuna]

Upgrade the DEF's playing against the pack. INT's A Plenty! Rogers will struggle, that division is wide open now.

 

[sho nuff]

Upgrade the DEF's playing against the pack. INT's A Plenty! Rogers will struggle, that division is wide open now.

Unlike with Favre were there were not many INTs to go around?Wide open?Not really. It will be Minny or GB. If Rodgers is even just average, GB will have a great chance to repeat as division champs.

 

[bcr8f]

We have no idea who Rodgers will favor, and it could be any of them.

I agree. I also think it's more a question of playcalling and who is playing the x, y, or z. I would not expect any of the WR's to change their roles based on their skill sets, though, and would expect the shorter routes to be more prevalent for two reasons: 1) Favre is gone & 2) they are safer. So who benefits in that offense from shorter throws?More to the point, look at why Jennings was such a hot FF play last year: Six TD's longer than 40 yards (57, 41, 82, 60, 80, 44). That is a total of 6 receptions for 364 yards and 6 TD's.It's amazing what the big play did for his FF value, basically one third of his entire FF production came from six plays. I am not saying the famous "take out his big plays" statement....I'm saying the opposite: look at them extremely closely and see how they are impacted by the recent course of events.

HK bashing a Packer player. What a shock, but keep doing it. I hope to get Driver and Jennings last next season.