FDuel Week 11 (1 Viewer)

[Ramblin Wreck]

Put RG3 and Peterson in two lineups. Put Garcon and Walsh in one each. So far so good. Looks like a shootout.

 

[snellman]

I used some FPPs to enter a $1 tourney and loaded up on Vikes and Skins for the H of it. Will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[Steeler]

I'm in a 50/50 with condia and mbomb and these are the players they have in common:

A.Peterson
E.Decker
A.Gates
Titans

condia has TY Hilton, but mbomb does not.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

Condia lineup against me is:

Peyton

AD

Mike James

Tate

Decker

Hilton

Gates

Prater

Titans

 

[Blue-Kun]

Another Thursday, another pretty good scoring day for some.

RGIII: 27.6
Garcon: 21.4

AP: 20.7

Reed: 15.2

Morris: 13.9

Other stuff:

Lacy owned in 35-40% of all my leagues.

TY Hilton most owned WR at 60% in two and 40-50% in rest.

Philly Rivers owned the most at 12-15%, doesn't look like any consensus slam dunk QB at least in my leagues.

 

[(HULK)]

Condia lineup against me is:

Peyton

AD

Mike James

Tate

Decker

Hilton

Gates

Prater

Titans

He is in both my 50/50s with the exact same lineup.

Thing is, in leagues he's been in with me, I've seen him lose about 1/2 the time. I'm not sure sweating him as much as we do is worthwhile.

 

[(HULK)]

Another Thursday, another pretty good scoring day for some.

RGIII: 27.6

Garcon: 21.4

AP: 20.7

Reed: 15.2

Morris: 13.9

Other stuff:

Lacy owned in 35-40% of all my leagues.

TY Hilton most owned WR at 60% in two and 40-50% in rest.

Philly Rivers owned the most at 12-15%, doesn't look like any consensus slam dunk QB at least in my leagues.

You've got to think of it in terms of points per dollar spent. RG3, Garcon, and Reed worked out well. AP was average. Morris was below average.

 

[andrewd173]

The one's I sweat are 1ucror, mbomb and some jigandreel guy

 

[Bobcat10]

Condia lineup against me is:

Peyton

AD

Mike James

Tate

Decker

Hilton

Gates

Prater

Titans

He is in both my 50/50s with the exact same lineup.

Thing is, in leagues he's been in with me, I've seen him lose about 1/2 the time. I'm not sure sweating him as much as we do is worthwhile.

I'm not sure many are sweating him here. I like to see his trends because I think alot of people will search out his lineup and either copy it or come close. Some think he is a king at this. The other reason I like his Thurs lineups is because he is going to use this base alot on Sunday, swap out AD and maybe make one more change. This could come in handy if you want to take him on H2H...if you pick the right one lol.

That said, I like alot of those players. I likely won't have any Manning or Gates though, but it's a pretty safe 50/50 lineup IMO.

 

[andrewd173]

Ok, had my coffee, so it's dumb question time:

Why do people place multiple identical entries in a (large number of participants) tournament?

I've seen it by enough players of various abillity, so it qualifies (to me) as "a thing" but I just can't fathom the strategy. When I have been involved in a tie (in a single prize league) the (single) prize was split between the tied players. Is there a separate payout mechanism in large tournaments? Otherwise, it appears that you tie yourself and split whatever the spot was worth, with yourself, which would be a net loss considering you had to pay the anty and the rake.

Actually doing some research and reviewing a live tournament (Note: 1 thursday night game played), I see 28 people tied for a spot that should pay out $150, but they are all being projected at winning $136.61. Now, the grouping of tied people appear to cover 2 'tiers' of payouts: 150 and 125.

Hypothesis: Are tied players counted as separate entries who split the pot of the total combined value of their placing?

That might make sense, as in my observed example I split a pot of X and nothing with 1 other person, leaving each of us 1/2 X. In a large tournament, would you then be effectively averaging the winnings over tied group? If so, as long as you did not finish in the top 5, it appears you might just be doubling down?

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Hypothesis: Are tied players counted as separate entries who split the pot of the total combined value of their placing?

Of course. The alternative is what, that 28 people would all split a single $150 prize? That wouldn't make any sense.

Consider a simpler example, a tournament that pays $100 to first place and $75 to second place. Two teams (A and B) tie for the top score with 180 points. A third team C scores 175 points. How would you expect the payouts to go?

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I think Draftstreet might be a 1- or 2-week experiment for me. Really not feeling it, I much prefer Fanduel at this point. But we'll see how it goes, if I win a bunch of money on Draftstreet this weekend maybe I'll change my mind.

 

[andrewd173]

Hypothesis: Are tied players counted as separate entries who split the pot of the total combined value of their placing?

Of course. The alternative is what, that 28 people would all split a single $150 prize? That wouldn't make any sense.

Consider a simpler example, a tournament that pays $100 to first place and $75 to second place. Two teams (A and B) tie for the top score with 180 points. A third team C scores 175 points. How would you expect the payouts to go?

I believe that when I saw the single prize example in effect, I got it stuck in my head that we tied for first and split the prize, whereas we really tied for first and second and split the total.

My old understanding wasn't making sense with the new observations, hence my brain melting down.

It appears, with the 3 team example above, that A and B should get $87.50 each, and C nothing.

 

[Modog814]

I think Draftstreet might be a 1- or 2-week experiment for me. Really not feeling it, I much prefer Fanduel at this point. But we'll see how it goes, if I win a bunch of money on Draftstreet this weekend maybe I'll change my mind.

It's definitely a different animal. I play on both and often times need to step away from constructing teams before switching between the sites. One major difference I've found is that on FanDuel, once you find a "value" play, it's usually around for a couple weeks so you can keep going to that well (ie. Keenan Allen). On draftstreet, the "values" are there, it's just more difficult to spot week to week.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

we really tied for first and second and split the total.

This is of course true, but your original question is still a decent one. When you enter more than one lineup in a single tournament (whether it's the same lineup or different lineups), your expected share of the prize pool goes up more slowly than your expected contribution to the vigorish (assuming you are a winning player, on average). It's not a huge deal in a 100-person tournament, but to see that the effect is there, consider a hypothetical two-person tournament where both teams are yours. You're a guaranteed loser in that situation.

If you're going to enter multiple lineups in tournaments, it's better to enter each of them in different tournaments rather than entering all of them into the same tournament. (Assuming there are multiple tournaments available with the parameters you like.) You want to avoid competing against winning players to the extent that you can, and that includes competing against yourself.

 

[Modog814]

we really tied for first and second and split the total.

This is of course true, but your original question is still a decent one. When you enter more than one lineup in a single tournament (whether it's the same lineup or different lineups), your expected share of the prize pool goes up more slowly than your expected contribution to the vigorish (assuming you are a winning player, on average). It's not a huge deal in a 100-person tournament, but to see that the effect is there, consider a hypothetical two-person tournament where both teams are yours. You're a guaranteed loser in that situation.

If you're going to enter multiple lineups in tournaments, it's better to enter each of them in different tournaments rather than entering all of them into the same tournament. (Assuming there are multiple tournaments available with the parameters you like.) You want to avoid competing against winning players to the extent that you can, and that includes competing against yourself.

Good points. I've seen this too and had wondered about it, and your points confirm to me that it doesn't seem like a viable strategy. Perhaps, these double entries are just mistakes? As in, someone meant to enter different lineups into the tournament, but lost track of which ones he already used. This makes more sense if the player is someone who has a bunch of lineups to track. I imagine something like this probably happens infrequently to an individual but frequently to the entire population.

I can't recall ever seeing the same person do this, but can't really say I've been looking for it either.

 

[BassNBrew]

we really tied for first and second and split the total.

This is of course true, but your original question is still a decent one. When you enter more than one lineup in a single tournament (whether it's the same lineup or different lineups), your expected share of the prize pool goes up more slowly than your expected contribution to the vigorish (assuming you are a winning player, on average). It's not a huge deal in a 100-person tournament, but to see that the effect is there, consider a hypothetical two-person tournament where both teams are yours. You're a guaranteed loser in that situation.

If you're going to enter multiple lineups in tournaments, it's better to enter each of them in different tournaments rather than entering all of them into the same tournament. (Assuming there are multiple tournaments available with the parameters you like.) You want to avoid competing against winning players to the extent that you can, and that includes competing against yourself.

Good points. I've seen this too and had wondered about it, and your points confirm to me that it doesn't seem like a viable strategy. Perhaps, these double entries are just mistakes? As in, someone meant to enter different lineups into the tournament, but lost track of which ones he already used. This makes more sense if the player is someone who has a bunch of lineups to track. I imagine something like this probably happens infrequently to an individual but frequently to the entire population.

I can't recall ever seeing the same person do this, but can't really say I've been looking for it either.

I've seen some people enter a tournament twice with the same lineup.

 

[encaitar]

we really tied for first and second and split the total.

This is of course true, but your original question is still a decent one. When you enter more than one lineup in a single tournament (whether it's the same lineup or different lineups), your expected share of the prize pool goes up more slowly than your expected contribution to the vigorish (assuming you are a winning player, on average). It's not a huge deal in a 100-person tournament, but to see that the effect is there, consider a hypothetical two-person tournament where both teams are yours. You're a guaranteed loser in that situation.

If you're going to enter multiple lineups in tournaments, it's better to enter each of them in different tournaments rather than entering all of them into the same tournament. (Assuming there are multiple tournaments available with the parameters you like.) You want to avoid competing against winning players to the extent that you can, and that includes competing against yourself.

Good points. I've seen this too and had wondered about it, and your points confirm to me that it doesn't seem like a viable strategy. Perhaps, these double entries are just mistakes? As in, someone meant to enter different lineups into the tournament, but lost track of which ones he already used. This makes more sense if the player is someone who has a bunch of lineups to track. I imagine something like this probably happens infrequently to an individual but frequently to the entire population.

I can't recall ever seeing the same person do this, but can't really say I've been looking for it either.

I've seen some people enter a tournament twice with the same lineup.

I've seen this a few times too. In fact in one cheap tourney earlier this year a guy took 3rd-5th places with the exact same lineup. I have to believe there was some sort of mistake there. I usually assume that it's guys who enter multiple entries just to secure their place for future separate lineups but who forget to change it later in the week.

 

[andrewd173]

Just for disclosure reasons, due to every expert and site predicting fair sailing for Andre Johnson, I am blending him into some lineups.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Mbomb is much better than condia from what I've seen in my 50/50's. Condia has kicked some butt in the NBA 50/50's I've done though.

Players I'm using a lot this week.

QB - Locker and Rivers

RB - Forte, Bush, Lacy, with some ADP Thursday and a little Woodhead.

WR - Hilton, Jeffery, Marshall, Allen, Brown, and Decker

TE - Graham or Gates in every lineup

D - Tenn and NYG in most lineups

 

[hagmania]

Cutler

SJax

Bush

Marshall

Sanders

Cooper

Julius

Prater

NYG

ETA: above lineup is my only tourney play for the week. Hoping to zig far, far away from the field and hit big with Cutler and Steven Jackson.

GL today!

 

[hagmania]

Lol at fanduel not scoring blocked punt TDs. :X

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Lol at fanduel not scoring blocked punt TDs. :X

They don't?

 

[karmarooster]

What. the. crap. My two big defensive plays this week - Tennessee at home vs. Jags, Colts at home vs. Rams.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Jake Locker injury's going to sink a third of my entries... sigh.

 

[Blue-Kun]

Jake Locker injury's going to sink a third of my entries... sigh.

Jake Locker injury sunk a bunch and Eli Manning did the same for me. If the SD/DEN game isn't the shootout everyone expects, pretty sure I just want to go cliffing.

 

[(HULK)]

Probably another poor weekend. Probably going to withdraw remaining funds and be done with it. Everyone owns the same players and I don't like losing because I went Viniteri over Haushuka. It's silly and too random. Or I'm not good enough at it to stay ahead of the curve at this point in the season. Either way, I'm out.

 

[mcd]

Probably another poor weekend. Probably going to withdraw remaining funds and be done with it. Everyone owns the same players and I don't like losing because I went Viniteri over Haushuka. It's silly and too random. Or I'm not good enough at it to stay ahead of the curve at this point in the season. Either way, I'm out.

DraftStreet doesn't use kickers. I shifted some $$$ over there so i could get their $200 signup match. I still feel more comfortable playing fanduel, but so far so good.

 

[snellman]

I would have a excellent week going except for Lockers injury. I hit pretty well on all other positions and his injury put a big bite in my lineups. Hopefully Rivers gets a lot of garbage time points to make up for it.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

Probably another poor weekend. Probably going to withdraw remaining funds and be done with it. Everyone owns the same players and I don't like losing because I went Viniteri over Haushuka. It's silly and too random. Or I'm not good enough at it to stay ahead of the curve at this point in the season. Either way, I'm out.

Sorry man, that sticks. I've had two straight bad weeks, but for me it's not about taking the same players as everybody else. It's about having my QB's get injured on the first drive (Locker, Rodgers, even a few Seneca Wallace).

 

[Bobcat10]

Gonna be a bad week. Too bad I didn't play all my 1pm lineups for the full day contests, even with Locker in them. Fared well again, 75%, at 1pm only with high scores.

Primetime here we come! Everyone will be on a NO/DAL shootout, so the key will be hitting your defense and some lessor players like James, Miller, or a couple Thursday plays.

 

[Blue-Kun]

Injuries aside, I wish I had just gone with Cooper/Hilton/Tate or even an X/Hilton/Tate set in more leagues. Unless Jimmy Graham pulls me out in a few bigger leagues, I'm done. Maybe play 20-25 bucks a week, but I'm with Hulk.

The lone bright spot: I started Case Keenum in a bunch of Thurs Night leagues. Backed off when I thought more about his ARZ matchup, but Keenum with just under 20 points now.

 

[The Duff Man]

I have my reverse outcome in full effect this week.

Shark Pool kills it....I lose

Shard Pool struggles....I win

A good week for me.

 

[The Duff Man]

The one week I didn't get in the $10 Expert tournaments and I have a very solid lineup that will probably finish #1 in all 50/50s I am in

89.34 with Three players left

Case Keenum 19.34

Mike James Still to Play

Rashad Jennings 11.7
T.Y. Hilton 16.5
Golden Tate 19.6
Andre Johnson 18.2
Jimmy Graham Still to Play
Matt Prater 4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Still to Play

 

[eoMMan]

Yeah, Locker and Eli hurt two of my three lineups. Still looking halfway decent with my other lineup....have Brees and Witten.

I think as a whole, scores will be slightly down this week across the board.

 

[JShare87]

Does anyone have any info on the week 11 ffc super qualifier? I won a seat a couple weeks back. I looked at the contests for week 11 and didn't see it up there.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I've been playing around a bit with my optimization program.

In On The Daily, I've been displaying only the top lineup for any given set of projections (plus, more recently, the top non-overlapping lineup), but on my way to finding the top lineup, it's trivially easy to also keep track of the second-best lineup, third-best lineup . . . to the nth-best lineup.

I kind of surprised myself when I found that the best non-overlapping lineup was generally about 5%-7% worse than the best lineup. I expected the discount to be smaller.

But while there was a surprisingly large difference between the best team and the best zero-overlap team, there is a surprisingly small difference between the best team and the next best team with at least one non-overlapping player. In fact, the difference between the best team and the tenth-best team is surprisingly small.

For the $60K salary cap at FanDuel in week ten, for example, the difference between the #1 team and the #10 team was 0.6 points using my projections, 0.5 points using Dodds' projections, and 0.5 points using Bloom's projections.

The other thing I noticed is that among the top ten teams for any given set of projections, there will be a core of about six guys who are on nearly every team. There will be just a few spots with different players rotating in.

For example, here are the top ten teams based on Dodds' projections for week ten:

QB Jake Locker 6600 18.5

RB Danny Woodhead 6600 15.6

RB Adrian Peterson 9900 19.7

WR Golden Tate 4500 10.5

WR T.Y. Hilton 6000 13

WR Calvin Johnson 9900 18.6

TE Antonio Gates 5600 11.8

K Garrett Hartley 5100 10.1

D Tennessee 5800 14.3

Sum 60000 132.1


Jake Locker 6600 18.5
Danny Woodhead 6600 15.6
Adrian Peterson 9900 19.7
Eric Decker 6200 13.2
Antonio Brown 6900 13.8
Victor Cruz 7000 14.2
Antonio Gates 5600 11.8
Matt Prater 5400 11
Tennessee 5800 14.3
60000 132.1

Jake Locker 6600 18.5
Danny Woodhead 6600 15.6
Adrian Peterson 9900 19.7
Alshon Jeffery 6200 13.1
Antonio Brown 6900 13.8
Victor Cruz 7000 14.2
Antonio Gates 5600 11.8
Matt Prater 5400 11
Tennessee 5800 14.3
60000 132

Jake Locker 6600 18.5
Danny Woodhead 6600 15.6
Adrian Peterson 9900 19.7
T.Y. Hilton 6000 13
Antonio Brown 6900 13.8
Victor Cruz 7000 14.2
Antonio Gates 5600 11.8
Matt Prater 5400 11
Tennessee 5800 14.3
59800 131.9

Jake Locker 6600 18.5
Danny Woodhead 6600 15.6
Reggie Bush 8500 17.3
Golden Tate 4500 10.5
Victor Cruz 7000 14.2
Calvin Johnson 9900 18.6
Antonio Gates 5600 11.8
Matt Prater 5400 11
Tennessee 5800 14.3
59900 131.8

Jake Locker 6600 18.5
Danny Woodhead 6600 15.6
Adrian Peterson 9900 19.7
T.Y. Hilton 6000 13
Victor Cruz 7000 14.2
Pierre Garcon 7400 14.6
Antonio Gates 5600 11.8
Garrett Hartley 5100 10.1
Tennessee 5800 14.3
60000 131.8

Jake Locker 6600 18.5
Danny Woodhead 6600 15.6
Adrian Peterson 9900 19.7
Alshon Jeffery 6200 13.1
Eric Decker 6200 13.2
Pierre Garcon 7400 14.6
Antonio Gates 5600 11.8
Matt Prater 5400 11
Tennessee 5800 14.3
59700 131.8

Jake Locker 6600 18.5
Danny Woodhead 6600 15.6
Adrian Peterson 9900 19.7
T.Y. Hilton 6000 13
Eric Decker 6200 13.2
DeSean Jackson 7900 14.6
Antonio Gates 5600 11.8
Matt Prater 5400 11
Tennessee 5800 14.3
60000 131.7

Jake Locker 6600 18.5
Danny Woodhead 6600 15.6
Adrian Peterson 9900 19.7
T.Y. Hilton 6000 13
Eric Decker 6200 13.2
Pierre Garcon 7400 14.6
Antonio Gates 5600 11.8
Matt Prater 5400 11
Tennessee 5800 14.3
59500 131.7

Jake Locker 6600 18.5
Danny Woodhead 6600 15.6
Reggie Bush 8500 17.3
Kendall Wright 5200 11.3
Eric Decker 6200 13.2
Calvin Johnson 9900 18.6
Antonio Gates 5600 11.8
Matt Prater 5400 11
Tennessee 5800 14.3
59800 131.6

(I hope he diversified away from Locker a bit.)

In any case, I'll have to think about whether there's a useful way to present the top N FanDuel lineups (and I don't know what N should be) for each set of projections going forward. It wouldn't be too hard to just dump all the lineups into tables and let people scroll up and down. Any ideas from y'all are welcome. (The best way might be to have, for any given projector and salary cap, the optimal lineup on the left side of the screen, and then when you click a player in that lineup, the best lineup without him shows up on the right side of the screen. That might be the most useful way to do it, but I'd need to learn more CSS, javascript, and jquery than I currently know. Sounds like a good project.)

 

[(HULK)]

Yup, barring a first carry injury from James tonight, I lost over $450. Didn't break 100 with any squad either. Ticking my tail and calling it quits. Good luck to the rest of you.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

OK week on Fanduel, should end up close to break-even. Disappointing but I'll take it, considering I had Jake Locker at QB on at least a third of my lineups.

Could very well go completely 0-fer on Draftstreet, though. Didn't help that I had Locker on all my entries over there. I'll play the rest of my money there next week, hopefully it will turn out better, but either way I'm probably going to take whatever's left and move it back to Fanduel. I just don't currently have the time to devote to creating lineups for two different websites with differing scoring, lineup requirements, etc.

 

[JShare87]

Anyone with any info on the super qualifier? The contest is up now, but it won't let me enter? I won a seat in like week 4 or 5.

 

[andrewd173]

Yup, barring a first carry injury from James tonight, I lost over $450. Didn't break 100 with any squad either. Ticking my tail and calling it quits. Good luck to the rest of you.

I'll miss hearing from you. Maybe next year?

 

[andrewd173]

Anyone with any info on the super qualifier? The contest is up now, but it won't let me enter? I won a seat in like week 4 or 5.

Drop an email to support? They have been pretty quick to answer me before.

 

[JShare87]

Anyone with any info on the super qualifier? The contest is up now, but it won't let me enter? I won a seat in like week 4 or 5.

Drop an email to support? They have been pretty quick to answer me before.

Thanks this is what I got back for anyone else that was wondering the same...... Thank you for submitting a support ticket. Congratulations on your victory into the Week 11 FFFC Super Qualifier! You will be automatically entered into next Sunday's Qualifier with a "dummy" lineup that you can edit as you please sometime today or in the next several days. Make sure to check back on your Upcoming Contests (My Contests tab) periodically.

Once you have been entered you can check your "My Contest" tab under "Upcoming Entries" to find your entry.

Please let us know if you have any other questions.

Best of luck!

Zack

Thank you for playing FanDuel.

 

[The Duff Man]

Nailing down D and K makes such a huge difference. In a tournament, I am 25 points from first and will triple my $5 to win $15.

The guy taking home $1000 played STL D!! He is 27 points ahead in D/K.

This is the difference between $1000 and $15.....what D/K you play.

 

[Modog814]

I kind of surprised myself when I found that the best non-overlapping lineup was generally about 5%-7% worse than the best lineup. I expected the discount to be smaller.

But while there was a surprisingly large difference between the best team and the best zero-overlap team, there is a surprisingly small difference between the best team and the next best team with at least one non-overlapping player. In fact, the difference between the best team and the tenth-best team is surprisingly small.

Not sure why you'd be surprised that the difference between the best team and 10th best team would be small. If you have an optimized lineup the 2nd best line up would most likely be substituting the lowest scoring player for the next highest scoring player at his position that fits salary wise. Given the small differences between projections, the drop off is probably very small.

So I'm not sure how much info is gained by listing the n best rosters. I think what would be must more useful and interesting to see, would be to take all the rosters projected to score above some point (let's say 120 pts for the $60K teams, because that should get you in the money of a 50/50) and show the distribution of how much each player appears on those rosters.

This would make diversification easier, especially if, using your example, you didn't want all your eggs in the Locker basket, or perhaps you just didn't like him this week.

In a way you wouldn't be creating a single optimized roster, but instead a general pool of players that make up winning teams.

 

[(HULK)]

Yup, barring a first carry injury from James tonight, I lost over $450. Didn't break 100 with any squad either. Ticking my tail and calling it quits. Good luck to the rest of you.

I'll miss hearing from you. Maybe next year?

Maybe. I've been a winning fantasy football player for over a decade, and I just got crushed two weekends running. Luckily it was mostly profit from earlier in the year. Maybe I only thrive against poor talent? May try the first 8 weeks only next year.

 

[Randomly113]

I will have no more weeks where Eli Manning, Pryor or Jake Locker screw up my weekend. Stafford level and up for me for the rest of the season.... its too painful to get zip from the QB spot.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

If Mike James stinks tonight I will lose a little for the week; otherwise will have my worst week of the season. If Locker had played a decent game and not gotten hurt I think I would have come out ahead for the week. Injuries suck but what can you do.

 

[hagmania]

Keenum's still cheap and vs OAK this week.

Keenum, Johnson, and Hopkins will be in Week 11 lineups for me.

 

[karmarooster]

Looking like a tough week for me, too. Down almost 50% from last week... still got a few guys tonight (Mike James, Bucs D) but sure that others have a variety of VJax, Glennon, Miller, Wallace, what have you.

Locker and Eli killed me. Jimmy Graham killed me. Was not a great week to go heavy on Graham at the expense of JT, Witten, Reed, etc. Ugh.

Should've stuck to the script - 50/50s only. I'm not gonna hit the money in any of the Triples/Quintuples I played.