Can any of the doubters explain to me why LeSean McCoy and Rashard Mendenhall are worth a 1st rounder and Felix Jones isn't worth a 3rd rounder?
McCoy will likely have 70+ receptions, and Mendenhall has a legitimate shot at high double digit TDs. One thing in common for most RBs that finish high in the rankings is a plethora of TDs. Felix has a career high of 3. He managed 2 last season with 233 total touches. Maybe he breaks more long scores this season? I don't know, but Dallas tends to throw the ball in the red zone.
After last night Felix likely won't last until the 5th round in most drafts. He went in the 4th in mine last week as RB19, and is currently being taken at about RB21. It would be difficult for me to expect Felix to finish the season at that spot.
My point was just that Felix has never finished better than RB27 in his career. He had little competition at the end of 2010 as well, and still managed to put up just RB2 stats. He did average a shade under 100 yards in the final 8 games at 98.87, and scored his 2 total TDs over that span. With TD threats in Austin, Witten, Bryant, and a defense that may lead to passing often I still expect Jones' TD total to be on the low end.
Felix would have to keep up his 100 yards from scrimmage stats during the entire season and score around 6 total TDs, which would be a huge jump from his career high of 3, to justify that draft position.
You think 1600 and 6 is going to be RB21 this year? Good year for running backs. 196 fantasy points would be good for2010: RB15
2009: RB10
2008: RB13
2007: RB8
2006: RB10
And that's standard scoring. He's also caught an astonishing 69 of his 76 career targets. I think Felix supporters see a guy who should be a lock for about 1200-1300 yards and 5-6 scores (which is what RB21 actually is), with a very nice situation and a ton of upside beyond that.
Yeah, I figured those numbers might be a bit high. Regardless, a 100 ypg average for an entire 16 game season is tough to keep up. Your 1,300 and 5 number would have been a better example...So, how is he a
lock for 1,200-1,300 yards and 5-6 when he's only managed that total yardage (1,250) once in his career and never had that many TDs? I guess that's my point. People are drafting him like it's a lock, but he's never done it before.
How many TDs do you expect the Cowboys to score this season? There are quite a few red zone mouths to feed in that offense.
I realize fantasy football is about finding the breakout guys, and I'm not normally someone to bash on a guy that's "never done it before." Breakouts happen from out of nowhere all the time. Maybe I'm just a bitter fantasy player that has thought all of the same things most of you are thinking about Felix Jones and been burned.
"Wow, explosive player, explosive offense, he's a LOCK for a breakout season. He looks great this preseason. Added weight, lost weight, ready to carry the load, he's Jerry Jones' guy, etc."