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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (9 Viewers)

Raider Nation said:
Because my mind works this way...

There are 122 casinos in Vegas. Imagine if Manning gave 60 "associates" $200,000 each to put on the Jags + 4 TDs at 60 different shops? EASY $10M payday after vig and expenses for the runners. Overthrow a few receivers on 3rd down. Maybe throw a pick if you have to. Piece of cake allowing the Jags to stay within the number.

Now you're gonna ask me how he can guarantee that all 60 people keep their mouths shut. I haven't gotten that far yet. <_<
Click to expand...
"It was my boss' idea - I swear!" - P. Manning

http://www.blogcdn.com/www.dailyfinance.com/media/2012/11/john-schnatter-435cs-b-111412.jpg

 
Raider Nation said:
Because my mind works this way...

There are 122 casinos in Vegas. Imagine if Manning gave 60 "associates" $200,000 each to put on the Jags + 4 TDs at 60 different shops? EASY $10M payday after vig and expenses for the runners. Overthrow a few receivers on 3rd down. Maybe throw a pick if you have to. Piece of cake allowing the Jags to stay within the number.

Now you're gonna ask me how he can guarantee that all 60 people keep their mouths shut. I haven't gotten that far yet. <_<
Click to expand...
It's really difficult to bet 200k anywhere in Vegas. I'd guess he could get away with maybe 10k and even then it would be tax hell. Vegas is awful for betting large money on sports. The sports books are a joke.

 
lumpy19 said:
Raider Nation said:
Because my mind works this way...

There are 122 casinos in Vegas. Imagine if Manning gave 60 "associates" $200,000 each to put on the Jags + 4 TDs at 60 different shops? EASY $10M payday after vig and expenses for the runners. Overthrow a few receivers on 3rd down. Maybe throw a pick if you have to. Piece of cake allowing the Jags to stay within the number.

Now you're gonna ask me how he can guarantee that all 60 people keep their mouths shut. I haven't gotten that far yet. <_<
Click to expand...
It's really difficult to bet 200k anywhere in Vegas. I'd guess he could get away with maybe 10k and even then it would be tax hell. Vegas is awful for betting large money on sports. The sports books are a joke.
Click to expand...
Is that right? Hmmm. It seems kind of embarrassing for a Vegas sportsbook to refuse a $200K wager.

I guess Manning will have to get more friends.

 
mquinnjr said:
What do you think the ML on -26.5 would be in the NFL? It seems that the converter I know (SBR's) stops around 14 for NFL. I'm thinking like -20,000-ish
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Week 3 when Seattle was -19 or so I saw several shops were at -$4500 but the LV Hilton had -$9900

 
So i still can't wrap my head around how Baltimore lost last week. Didn't see the game at all, but Buffalo was missing it's top 3 CB's and top safety, and they somehow get 5 INTs off of Flacco. So does that mean Buffalo is better and has a good shot against Cleveland, or is Baltimore more crappy?

 
modogg said:
So i still can't wrap my head around how Baltimore lost last week. Didn't see the game at all, but Buffalo was missing it's top 3 CB's and top safety, and they somehow get 5 INTs off of Flacco. So does that mean Buffalo is better and has a good shot against Cleveland, or is Baltimore more crappy?
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Bills played probably the best game they will play all year. And it was still a nail biter.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
modogg said:
So i still can't wrap my head around how Baltimore lost last week. Didn't see the game at all, but Buffalo was missing it's top 3 CB's and top safety, and they somehow get 5 INTs off of Flacco. So does that mean Buffalo is better and has a good shot against Cleveland, or is Baltimore more crappy?
Click to expand...
Bills played probably the best game they will play all year. And it was still a nail biter.
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I just thought that secondary would get picked apart with ease by Flacco. I don't know how you can lose your top 3 CB's and get 5 INTs like that, real good depth I guess? Eagles should trade for the Buf CB5 and CB6

 
modogg said:
I just thought that secondary would get picked apart with ease by Flacco. I don't know how you can lose your top 3 CB's and get 5 INTs like that, real good depth I guess? Eagles should trade for the Buf CB5 and CB6
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Geno Smith ate that same secondary alive the week before. Flacco had an awful game despite not facing much pressure and going against a JV secondary. Bills had some big plays from guys like Aaron Williams and Kiko Alonso but they should have kept going to Marlon Brown over Justin Rogers all day.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
modogg said:
I just thought that secondary would get picked apart with ease by Flacco. I don't know how you can lose your top 3 CB's and get 5 INTs like that, real good depth I guess? Eagles should trade for the Buf CB5 and CB6
Click to expand...
Geno Smith ate that same secondary alive the week before. Flacco had an awful game despite not facing much pressure and going against a JV secondary. Bills had some big plays from guys like Aaron Williams and Kiko Alonso but they should have kept going to Marlon Brown over Justin Rogers all day.
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Yeah, i started marlon because of the match-up. Just weird stuff with the NFL still for this year,

 
lumpy19 said:
Raider Nation said:
Because my mind works this way...

There are 122 casinos in Vegas. Imagine if Manning gave 60 "associates" $200,000 each to put on the Jags + 4 TDs at 60 different shops? EASY $10M payday after vig and expenses for the runners. Overthrow a few receivers on 3rd down. Maybe throw a pick if you have to. Piece of cake allowing the Jags to stay within the number.

Now you're gonna ask me how he can guarantee that all 60 people keep their mouths shut. I haven't gotten that far yet. <_<
Click to expand...
It's really difficult to bet 200k anywhere in Vegas. I'd guess he could get away with maybe 10k and even then it would be tax hell. Vegas is awful for betting large money on sports. The sports books are a joke.
Click to expand...
!0 different runners hitting 10 different casino's is how the pros do it. I'm not one of them, but this is how they run. Or so i've been told.

 
ChainsawU said:
UTEP v La Tech

Last week Colorado State jumped out to a 28-7 halftime lead on UTEP, watched as the Miners tied the score at 28-all in the middle of the third quarter, then scored the next 24 points en route to a 59-42 win. Meanwhile, Army ran for 414 yards and passed for 16 — on three attempts and one completion — in a 35-16 win over Louisiana Tech. nbcsports.com

I went and compared all the stats the NCAA has on UTEP and La Tech for 2013, put them in a table, then sorted them by their strengths/weaknesses. When you compare the two, UTEP is generally stronger on offense, while La Tech is generally stronger on defense. At first glance, UTEP's turnover margin and red zone offense stand out. link
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I'm still looking at this. Does anyone ever use Jeff Sagarin's ratings? I know it's nothing new. Doing the math with his numbers, you get UTEP as a 2.4 point favorite. I also found Team Rankings' SOS Power Rating. But the interesting thing about their list is that UTEP ranks dead last in SOS, and is the only team with a negative (-) rating.

Don't ask me why. They are the bottom two teams in the C-USA-West, I just started looking at it for no reason. I still like UTEP's turnover advantage and red zone scoring.

 
Second page? Come on.

Tampa Bay Rays -115 1U

Cobb has been lights out lately, and Longoria finally realized just who the hell he is again.

 
Treynwreck3 said:
Second page? Come on.

Tampa Bay Rays -115 1U

Cobb has been lights out lately, and Longoria finally realized just who the hell he is again.
Click to expand...
So has Salazar. Granted, I have a big Tribe boner in general. But somewhat heartened by the fact that Chris Perez looks like he's on a one-stop train to Low Leverage-ville.

 
The Dallas line has almost Wonged itself. You could have gotten in early at +3.5 on Sunday. :lol:

Since 2011:

home dog >=7

6-28 SU

19-13-2 ATS (.594)

home dog >=7.5

5-14 SU

16-3 ATS (.842)

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Treynwreck3 said:
Second page? Come on.

Tampa Bay Rays -115 1U

Cobb has been lights out lately, and Longoria finally realized just who the hell he is again.
Click to expand...
So has Salazar. Granted, I have a big Tribe boner in general. But somewhat heartened by the fact that Chris Perez looks like he's on a one-stop train to Low Leverage-ville.
Click to expand...
Wil Myers is hitting well, too.

Without looking at stats and only by being a Rays fan....i'll confidently say that Cobb has been the best pitcher in baseball over his past 3 starts. He struck out like a bazillion* Orioles when I was at the game. I can't believe the Injins are throwing out another rookie against this elite death squad of bats....Salazar with a 3ish era in his last 3 starts against KC/CWSx2? NO CHANCE!**

I'm betting on Cleveland and hoping like hell I lose.

* +/-

**pay no attention to my rant for wagering purposes...i'm merely representing the 10s of Rays fans worldwide.

 
RJ Bell ‏@RJinVegas 30 Sep
77% of the early money on Jags +27 at Denver - according to BetOnline.ag

RJ Bell ‏@RJinVegas 15h
#Broncos open -26.5 hosting #Jags (@LVSuperbook) and is quickly bet down to -26.

LVSuperBook ‏@LVSuperBook 15h
To our knowledge it's the largest opening spread in modern day history.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Treynwreck3 said:
Second page? Come on.

Tampa Bay Rays -115 1U

Cobb has been lights out lately, and Longoria finally realized just who the hell he is again.
Click to expand...
So has Salazar. Granted, I have a big Tribe boner in general. But somewhat heartened by the fact that Chris Perez looks like he's on a one-stop train to Low Leverage-ville.
Click to expand...
Salazar stats got fattened up against CHW(2), NYM in 3 of his last 4 starts. The other one, KC got to him pretty good. He also really doesn't pitch deep into games, never going more than six and plenty of < 5 inning outings (3 of his last 7).

Think I'm all over TB here and seriously considering hitting the -1.5 (+140) hard

 
Salazar's had some good starts against Anaheim, Detroit (2x, one he gave up 4 ER in 7+ IP, but K'd 10), and Toronto.

I also gotta think HFA gets magnified in a game like this, especially given Cleveland's run. That place is going to be b-a-n-a-n-a-s.

 
WagerType:PARLAY (7 TEAMS) Date: Team:

Oct 06 NFL [413] KC CHIEFS -2.5 -110

Oct 06 NFL [418] STL RAMS -550

Oct 06 NFL [424] GB PACKERS -320

Oct 06 NFL [427] PHI EAGLES +110

Oct 06 NFL [431] SD CHARGERS -220

Oct 06 NFL [433] DEN BRONCOS -320

Oct 07 NFL [438] ATL FALCONS -475

1U/13.36U

:football:

 
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I think I love the Chiefs this week. I've seen enough of the Ryan Fitzpatrick experience and doubt he can do much against that defense.

 
"Good said:
#GiLzMLB = Alex Cobb has 6 scoreless (NO ER) Quality Starts in his career. Here's his STATLINE next start; 0-5 (1 ND) 7.14 ERA / 1.74 WHIP

#GiLzMLB ((AL Wild Card)) Indians TT O3.5 (-105) = [2U]
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I get the stat, but consider that Cobb gave up 1 run against Baltimore before he shut out the yanks. That run came with 1 run in the 9th. If Maddon pulls Alex after 8 shutout innings, are you still using his career statistics over recent performance? Those o's were still vying for a wildcard spot in that series.

In game 5 and 7 elimination playoff games, the home team is 44-41(not sure how far back that stat dates as I straight stole it). Pretty negligible.

You guys are smarter than me, just trying to help since I've watched most of cobbs starts. He's pitching well right now. He may give up 25 runs...rb has clev o3.5 +110 fwiw.

 
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Two of those came against the Red Sox this year, who average 5.3 rpg this season anyway, and 5.3 rpg lifetime versus Cobb.

edit: Red Sox average 5.3 runs in games that Cobb starts, not versus him personally.. Cobb career ERA 4.19 versus Red Sox

 
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Cowboys haven't been a home dog of 7 or more since Thanksgiving Day 2001. The Broncos came to town as 7-point favorites and beat them 26-24.

 
Bauer said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Bauer said:
Some decent value in giroux having more points than kessel tonight at +180
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where you seeing this?
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BovadaEta: I also have .5 units on varlamov over 28.5. Avs have probably the worst defense in the nhl and should let up plenty of shots
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HEY YOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wow - it took me 2 years to find a second site that would let me bet on shots. This is BIG NEWS.

 
Dan Lambskin said:
ChainsawU said:
Cowboys haven't been a home dog of 7 or more since Thanksgiving Day 2001. The Broncos came to town as 7-point favorites and beat them 26-24.
Click to expand...
I know you like stats and all but this is the best offense of all time vs Tony Romo

Denver 45 - Cowboys 27
Click to expand...
For sure Mr. Lambskin. I just like stats- I'm not pimping that you should play the Cowboys. I have been addicted to the SDQL database ever since TJ showed it to me, and I like to find out stuff on there. Sometimes I feel like I need a disclaimer whenever I post a trend, for real. I did play the Cowboys +7.5 though. They are riding the party bus this week. But you are right, I looked it up in SDQL and the last team who scored >35 their first four weeks was the 2000 Rams.

 
Generally i don't like betting shot props till later in the year, but in honor of opening night and B0vada I'm betting...

Bernier over 28.5

Miller over 29.5

Varlamov over 28.5

I don't think any of these are particularly a good lean, so tail with caution.

 
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The Ref said:
Generally i don't like betting shot props till later in the year, but in honor of opening night and B0vada I'm betting...

Bernier over 28.5

Miller over 29.5

Varlamov over 28.5

I don't think any of these are particularly a good lean, so tail with caution.
Click to expand...
with you on all 3.

also parlayed Rays with Red Wings, and took the Ducks straight up.

 
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Aaron Rudnicki said:
The Ref said:
Generally i don't like betting shot props till later in the year, but in honor of opening night and B0vada I'm betting...

Bernier over 28.5

Miller over 29.5

Varlamov over 28.5

I don't think any of these are particularly a good lean, so tail with caution.
Click to expand...
with you on all 3.

also parlayed Rays with Red Wings, and took the Ducks straight up.
Click to expand...
Too bad we couldn't get one more save out of Miller. The 2-0 score isn't going to help us much

 
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