FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (10 Viewers)

[got_nugs]

Salazar looks good but how far can he go? I think he's done after 5+. I played U3.5 1st half. Hoping the Rays get to the bully.

They'll get to him....Delmon Young gonna take him deep.

HA! Nice Edit.

yeah, I forgot to spell check "wil myers".

 

[Raider Nation]

"Jacksonville is the worst NFL team I have ever seen,” says Golden Nugget bookmaker Aaron Kessler. Not many people in Vegas disagree. Nine-point underdogs at home last week against the Colts, the Jags were supported by an extremely positive trend: Home-team underdogs of more than eight points had covered 23 of 25 against the spread. The public didn’t care about that, fading Jacksonville with both fists, and Jacksonville didn’t come close to covering, resulting in the biggest win of the day for players, as reported by BetOnline.ag.As much as bettors hate Jacksonville, they love Denver. These two play next week, and with early spreads in the 27-point range, the Broncos have a chance to be the biggest favorite in NFL history. Against Philadelphia, Denver garnered 71 percent of the bets (according to our ticket count tracking tool at Pregame.com), and their cover was another win for the bettors. "We got destroyed on this game. Lost not only on the side and total for the game, but also lost big on the first half and second half side and total," said Mike Perry from Sportsbook.ag.

Seattle is another favorite of the average bettor. Their comeback win and cover was another loser for the books, with 79 percent of the money bet on this game at Mike Perry’s shop backing the Seahawks. With Denver and Seattle on a Super Bowl collision course, many have asked which team would be favored. The consensus Vegas opinion is that Denver on a neutral field would be favored by five points, which equates to over a touchdown at home. Surprisingly, the Broncos would be a small favorite, even in Seattle.

The bettors winning with the popular favorites early on Sunday set up the NBC night game to be a huge decision. It’s rare for the public not to back the Patriots, but the belief that the game was a must-win for Atlanta, combined with New England’s lack of offense, resulted in a majority of the action backing the home team. “We avoided a huge bullet with the New England cover — it was a lifesaver,” said the LVH’s Jay Kornegay.

The LVH takes some of the sharpest action in Las Vegas, and Kornegay told me the wise guys bet the Giants, Texans, and Jets the heaviest. Yup, that's 0-3 from the guys who make a living at it (making the wise guys 1-9-1 the last three weeks). Professionals hate losing, but they understand anything can happen in the short term.

In college, games falling exactly on the spread was the story of Saturday, including hugely bet games like Ohio State favored by seven over Wisconsin, and Georgia favored by three over LSU. Spread accuracy is a sign of expertise, but it is not good for the Vegas bottom line. “Pushes” keeps parlays for both teams live and result in all teasers winning. Plus, if lopsided action moved the line at all during the week, the favorite bettors win at the lower number, and the dog bettors win at the higher number.

Looking ahead, the love affair with the Broncos seems to be reaching an even higher level. Dave Mason tells me the early action backing Denver over Dallas is the most lopsided he has ever seen. Mike Perry still expects bettors to back the Giants, since the G-Men are still not out of contention in the NFC East.

 

[got_nugs]

Cobb gives me the chachas.

 

[The Ref]

Generally i don't like betting shot props till later in the year, but in honor of opening night and B0vada I'm betting...

Bernier over 28.5

Miller over 29.5

Varlamov over 28.5

I don't think any of these are particularly a good lean, so tail with caution.

with you on all 3.

also parlayed Rays with Red Wings, and took the Ducks straight up.

OK GB - not sure how we did it with Philly taking the 2P off and Detroit taking the 1P AND 2P off. Someone call the Ducks locker room and tell them to cut the crap.

 

[Treynwreck3]

Salazar looks good but how far can he go? I think he's done after 5+. I played U3.5 1st half. Hoping the Rays get to the bully.

 

[Treynwreck3]

Hello.

 

[got_nugs]

Salazar looks good but how far can he go? I think he's done after 5+. I played U3.5 1st half. Hoping the Rays get to the bully.

Cobb 6 2/3 scoreless innings.

 

[Raider Nation]

Someone tell me why I keep getting this nagging feeling that Jacksonville is going to walk into St. Louis and win.

Yes, I know they are supremely terrible. Yes, I know it's said they are Tanking for Teddy.

I just can't shake the feeling that 12 points is way too many, and they may lose outright. I'm getting horrible vibes from the Rams.

 

[The Ref]

I'm going to bed AR. You make sure we get 7 shots or more.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I'm going to bed AR. You make sure we get 7 shots or more.

3-0GB Bovada

 

[ChainsawU]

Someone tell me why I keep getting this nagging feeling that Jacksonville is going to walk into St. Louis and win.

Yes, I know they are supremely terrible. Yes, I know it's said they are Tanking for Teddy.

I just can't shake the feeling that 12 points is way too many, and they may lose outright. I'm getting horrible vibes from the Rams.

RN, real talk, I thought that too today and I've watched every Rams game.

 

[ChainsawU]

Plus it's one of their only chances for a W this year, and it seems like this is right about the time the whole world is writing them off.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Someone tell me why I keep getting this nagging feeling that Jacksonville is going to walk into St. Louis and win.

Yes, I know they are supremely terrible. Yes, I know it's said they are Tanking for Teddy.

I just can't shake the feeling that 12 points is way too many, and they may lose outright. I'm getting horrible vibes from the Rams.

RN, real talk, I thought that too today and I've watched every Rams game.

Game smells bad to me too

 

[The Ref]

I'm going to bed AR. You make sure we get 7 shots or more.

3-0GB Bovada

I watched a lot of the Sabers game. I know you're a fan boy, but your call of under 83.5 on them looks solid. They looked BAD last night.

 

[The Ref]

You can buy down Texas to 7 -115 at RB and pick up IwSt at 8 in many other shops. Not that big a middle but 7 really feels right to me for this game.

 

[Treynwreck3]

You can buy down Texas to 7 -115 at RB and pick up IwSt at 8 in many other shops. Not that big a middle but 7 really feels right to me for this game.

Texas destroys Iowa State tonight. Not that I ever went to Texas or anything. Not like I'm a homer. Nah. Really.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Here's one for you Chainsaw

@Johnny_Detroit: Teams coming off a bye and favored on the road over the past 10 years are 70% against the spread in the NFL.

P.S. It's the Panthers

 

[Tiger Fan]

Someone tell me why I keep getting this nagging feeling that Jacksonville is going to walk into St. Louis and win.

Yes, I know they are supremely terrible. Yes, I know it's said they are Tanking for Teddy.

I just can't shake the feeling that 12 points is way too many, and they may lose outright. I'm getting horrible vibes from the Rams.

RN, real talk, I thought that too today and I've watched every Rams game.

who are yall picking for survivor?

 

[lumpy19]

Someone tell me why I keep getting this nagging feeling that Jacksonville is going to walk into St. Louis and win.

Yes, I know they are supremely terrible. Yes, I know it's said they are Tanking for Teddy.

I just can't shake the feeling that 12 points is way too many, and they may lose outright. I'm getting horrible vibes from the Rams.

The sharpest NFL guy I know is on the Jags +11.5, that's good enough for me

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Someone tell me why I keep getting this nagging feeling that Jacksonville is going to walk into St. Louis and win.

Yes, I know they are supremely terrible. Yes, I know it's said they are Tanking for Teddy.

I just can't shake the feeling that 12 points is way too many, and they may lose outright. I'm getting horrible vibes from the Rams.

RN, real talk, I thought that too today and I've watched every Rams game.

who are yall picking for survivor?

I just punched the Falcons

 

[Angry Beavers]

Someone tell me why I keep getting this nagging feeling that Jacksonville is going to walk into St. Louis and win.

Yes, I know they are supremely terrible. Yes, I know it's said they are Tanking for Teddy.

I just can't shake the feeling that 12 points is way too many, and they may lose outright. I'm getting horrible vibes from the Rams.

RN, real talk, I thought that too today and I've watched every Rams game.

who are yall picking for survivor?

I just punched the Falcons

Same here

 

[The Ref]

Someone tell me why I keep getting this nagging feeling that Jacksonville is going to walk into St. Louis and win.

Yes, I know they are supremely terrible. Yes, I know it's said they are Tanking for Teddy.

I just can't shake the feeling that 12 points is way too many, and they may lose outright. I'm getting horrible vibes from the Rams.

The sharpest NFL guy I know is on the Jags +11.5, that's good enough for me

All Aboard!

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I took the Rams (already used Atlanta earlier) in my survivor pools but I'm not too confident in them either.

 

[The Ref]

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~~~▄ ▄██▌......Bovada Hockey Props
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▀(O)▀▀▀▀▀▀▀(O)(O)▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀(O)(O)▀▀▘

 

[Billy Bats]

Here's one for you Chainsaw

@Johnny_Detroit: Teams coming off a bye and favored on the road over the past 10 years are 70% against the spread in the NFL.

P.S. It's the Panthers

Nice! I love them even more now.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Here's one for you Chainsaw

@Johnny_Detroit: Teams coming off a bye and favored on the road over the past 10 years are 70% against the spread in the NFL.

P.S. It's the Panthers

Nice! I love them even more now.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Did anyone else see the early line on the Alabama game?

10/05 12:20 PM
323 Georgia State 55½u
324 Alabama -56

Total was smaller than the pointspread.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

tailing Game Hunter on these bases plays tonight:

2U LA/ATL U6 (-125)

1.5U ATL +134

I stopped following him earlier this year after losing too much money tailing his plays. Hope he got better.

 

[Raider Nation]

Someone tell me why I keep getting this nagging feeling that Jacksonville is going to walk into St. Louis and win.

Yes, I know they are supremely terrible. Yes, I know it's said they are Tanking for Teddy.

I just can't shake the feeling that 12 points is way too many, and they may lose outright. I'm getting horrible vibes from the Rams.

RN, real talk, I thought that too today and I've watched every Rams game.

who are yall picking for survivor?

I just punched the Falcons

Same here

Falcons x3

Packers x1

(same pool)

 

[TheWick]

Someone tell me why I keep getting this nagging feeling that Jacksonville is going to walk into St. Louis and win.

Yes, I know they are supremely terrible. Yes, I know it's said they are Tanking for Teddy.

I just can't shake the feeling that 12 points is way too many, and they may lose outright. I'm getting horrible vibes from the Rams.

The sharpest NFL guy I know is on the Jags +11.5, that's good enough for me

He was probably on them last week also.

 

[Raider Nation]

Then sit back and hope the Jags pull off the miracle, which should wipe out about half the remaining people.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Then sit back and hope the Jags pull off the miracle, which should wipe out about half the remaining people.

"Leave me along Peg. The Bears are playing the Rams...and if you lose to the Rams you get kicked out of the league"

 

[Annyong]

Someone tell me why I keep getting this nagging feeling that Jacksonville is going to walk into St. Louis and win.

Yes, I know they are supremely terrible. Yes, I know it's said they are Tanking for Teddy.

I just can't shake the feeling that 12 points is way too many, and they may lose outright. I'm getting horrible vibes from the Rams.

RN, real talk, I thought that too today and I've watched every Rams game.

who are yall picking for survivor?

I just punched the Falcons

Same here

me too, and i was really stressing about it

 

[Annyong]

tailing Game Hunter on these bases plays tonight:

2U LA/ATL U6 (-125)

1.5U ATL +134

I stopped following him earlier this year after losing too much money tailing his plays. Hope he got better.

also tailing. got U6-130

anyone got anything for tonight's Bills/Browns?

 

[Raider Nation]

Someone tell me why I keep getting this nagging feeling that Jacksonville is going to walk into St. Louis and win.

Yes, I know they are supremely terrible. Yes, I know it's said they are Tanking for Teddy.

I just can't shake the feeling that 12 points is way too many, and they may lose outright. I'm getting horrible vibes from the Rams.

RN, real talk, I thought that too today and I've watched every Rams game.

who are yall picking for survivor?

I just punched the Falcons

Same here

me too, and i was really stressing about it

You're good. I think the Jets are starting Flynn from Breaking Bad at WR.

 

[lumpy19]

Someone tell me why I keep getting this nagging feeling that Jacksonville is going to walk into St. Louis and win.

Yes, I know they are supremely terrible. Yes, I know it's said they are Tanking for Teddy.

I just can't shake the feeling that 12 points is way too many, and they may lose outright. I'm getting horrible vibes from the Rams.

The sharpest NFL guy I know is on the Jags +11.5, that's good enough for me

He was probably on them last week also.

He wasn't but I was

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Someone tell me why I keep getting this nagging feeling that Jacksonville is going to walk into St. Louis and win.

Yes, I know they are supremely terrible. Yes, I know it's said they are Tanking for Teddy.

I just can't shake the feeling that 12 points is way too many, and they may lose outright. I'm getting horrible vibes from the Rams.

RN, real talk, I thought that too today and I've watched every Rams game.

who are yall picking for survivor?

I just punched the Falcons

Same here

me too, and i was really stressing about it

You're good. I think the Jets are starting Flynn from Breaking Bad at WR.

Heeyyyyyyy Coach

 

[optionmaven]

Played Green Bay for my survivor pick. A little worried that the 22 home game win streak they have over the lions could be due for a fall. Nah, Rodgers won't give them the ball 4 times like the Bears did last week. Love the over here too.

I remember when the Manziel news broke (autographs) and I played a couple of games of the year at SB. Next week is the first one where I have Ole Miss +5.5 against Johnny A&M. Looking this week at it and the spread is Ole Miss -1. 6.5 juicy points gained. Wooohooo!!! The other game is LSU -3 at home against Johnny on November 23rd. Now the spread is -6. Wooohooo! Not saying they are winners, just like beating the numbers. While I was looking up the numbers today, I saw that Northwestern is -3 at home against MSU on the same day. Threw a unit on it, though it might be a 2 star play or even 3.

 

[Raider Nation]

 

[Raider Nation]

I think the Brownies D will give Buffalo all sorts of problems. I don't think the Bills D will give Cleveland any problems whatsoever.

So I guess I'm therefore obligated to take CLE -4.

 

[Annyong]

Going Browns -4 as well.

Also going to see Nick Offerman at the Chicago Theatre tonight. Pretty excited about the bacon wrapped something ill order for dinner as well.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I think the Brownies D will give Buffalo all sorts of problems. I don't think the Bills D will give Cleveland any problems whatsoever.

So I guess I'm therefore obligated to take CLE -4.

It seems like a terrible matchup for Buffalo. They run the ball more than any other team or close to it, but the Browns front should dominate and shut down the run game. The Browns pass the ball as much as anyone in the league and the Bills are decimated in the secondary. Plus, Joe Haden should limit Stevie Johnson, which means the Bills will need to rely on Woods and Chandler to keep up with Cameron and Gordon.

Browns tonight for me.

 

[Limp Ditka]

I think the Brownies D will give Buffalo all sorts of problems. I don't think the Bills D will give Cleveland any problems whatsoever.

So I guess I'm therefore obligated to take CLE -4.

Thinking of 7 pt teasing the Browns and the Under

 

[lumpy19]

Utah just got hit...sportsbook still has +7 -115, pretty nice bet

 

[Raider Nation]

I think the Brownies D will give Buffalo all sorts of problems. I don't think the Bills D will give Cleveland any problems whatsoever.

So I guess I'm therefore obligated to take CLE -4.

Thinking of 7 pt teasing the Browns and the Under

Make sure ties don't lose.

 

[lumpy19]

I think the Brownies D will give Buffalo all sorts of problems. I don't think the Bills D will give Cleveland any problems whatsoever.

So I guess I'm therefore obligated to take CLE -4.

It seems like a terrible matchup for Buffalo. They run the ball more than any other team or close to it, but the Browns front should dominate and shut down the run game. The Browns pass the ball as much as anyone in the league and the Bills are decimated in the secondary. Plus, Joe Haden should limit Stevie Johnson, which means the Bills will need to rely on Woods and Chandler to keep up with Cameron and Gordon.

Browns tonight for me.

Makes total sense and as a bills fan who is forced to watch all their games I agree. Problem is the market doesn't. Bookmaker has 100k limits and has moved back to -3 -125

I'm following the money and taking the Bills.

 

[Raider Nation]

So with the one survivor spot where I took the Packers, it would be wise to stick with them instead of switching to CLE?

 

[optionmaven]

I think the Brownies D will give Buffalo all sorts of problems. I don't think the Bills D will give Cleveland any problems whatsoever.

So I guess I'm therefore obligated to take CLE -4.

It seems like a terrible matchup for Buffalo. They run the ball more than any other team or close to it, but the Browns front should dominate and shut down the run game. The Browns pass the ball as much as anyone in the league and the Bills are decimated in the secondary. Plus, Joe Haden should limit Stevie Johnson, which means the Bills will need to rely on Woods and Chandler to keep up with Cameron and Gordon.

Browns tonight for me.

I get hesitant on these type of games because it looks so logical. Same with WKU over ULM. Still like them and played them, just get a little leary about it. Ambivalent about the other games tonight with a slight edge perhaps of taking the points.

More GOY at SB. Oregon @ Washington. Ducks by 12. Will be there second lowest spread of the year besides the game at Stanford where they are 6 pt favorites. I like them both. Ducks blow teams out on the road as well as they do at home and I'm feeling pretty good that the numbers will move in our favor.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I think the Brownies D will give Buffalo all sorts of problems. I don't think the Bills D will give Cleveland any problems whatsoever.

So I guess I'm therefore obligated to take CLE -4.

Thinking of 7 pt teasing the Browns and the Under

I did this with a 6.5er (+3.5, U48) for 2u

 

[Dan Lambskin]

So with the one survivor spot where I took the Packers, it would be wise to stick with them instead of switching to CLE?

I think you'll be OK, although the Lions did just break one 0-22 streak in Washington. I think the Pack really needs this game though...I just wonder if they don't have some better match ups down the road