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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)

Raider Nation said:
mquinnjr said:
Broncos -6.5 to win 1U
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I took SF in the capping contest.... completely forgot that Manning needs 3 TDs for the record. :( This could be a celebratory night in Denver.
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Yeah total square play, but I was feeling the Peyton train would suffice to cover at home. Got me even on the day, so I'll take it.

On a side note because I know everyone is dying to hear, headed into SNF down in a 12-team keep 3 league I'm in. My manning and Broncos D vs Gore and Julius. :bowtie: and 7-0.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Broncos crew ranks as the worst for tackle inflation, so I was tempted to just play all unders across the board for tackle props tonight. Decided to take a shot on the TJ Ward over due to price, but not sure I'd recommend that or the other .5u play.

all at 5d:

1u Reid U5.5 (-145)

1u V.Miller U4.5 (-115)

1u Marshall U8.5 (-145)

.5u TJ Ward O6.5 (+125)

.5u Bethea U6.5 (-145)

also played DEN TT O27 (-125) at RB.
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Great stuff. :thumbup:

 
regularguy said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Broncos crew ranks as the worst for tackle inflation, so I was tempted to just play all unders across the board for tackle props tonight. Decided to take a shot on the TJ Ward over due to price, but not sure I'd recommend that or the other .5u play.

all at 5d:

1u Reid U5.5 (-145)

1u V.Miller U4.5 (-115)

1u Marshall U8.5 (-145)

.5u TJ Ward O6.5 (+125)

.5u Bethea U6.5 (-145)

also played DEN TT O27 (-125) at RB.
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Great stuff. :thumbup:
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ThanksShould have stuck with the Under on everybody like I wanted to. They all hit.

 
So here's a funny story. Next Sunday, I have my niece's confirmation to attend at her church. 9:30am. WOOOOOO!!!!! Forget the fact that I usually get up at 12:45pm on Sundays, and even then I'm still tired. But this is also the week that the Falcons and Lions play in London..... at 9:30am! So not only am I gonna be miserable and tired in the last place I want to be, but my sister will kill me if I'm watching the gamecast on my phone during the ceremony. SWEET!

 
Raider Nation said:
So here's a funny story. Next Sunday, I have my niece's confirmation to attend at her church. 9:30am. WOOOOOO!!!!! Forget the fact that I usually get up at 12:45pm on Sundays, and even then I'm still tired. But this is also the week that the Falcons and Lions play in London..... at 9:30am! So not only am I gonna be miserable and tired in the last place I want to be, but my sister will kill me if I'm watching the gamecast on my phone during the ceremony. SWEET!
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Well, if Calvin's still out and the Falcons play like the falcons, you might not be missing a ton anyways.

And this on your phone screen: http://store.apple.com/us/product/HC600ZM/A/3m-privacy-screen-protector-for-iphone-5

 
Raider Nation said:
So here's a funny story. Next Sunday, I have my niece's confirmation to attend at her church. 9:30am. WOOOOOO!!!!! Forget the fact that I usually get up at 12:45pm on Sundays, and even then I'm still tired. But this is also the week that the Falcons and Lions play in London..... at 9:30am! So not only am I gonna be miserable and tired in the last place I want to be, but my sister will kill me if I'm watching the gamecast on my phone during the ceremony. SWEET!
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Oof. My niece's was today. 100 ####### confirmants and started at 11 central. My awesome sister told me and my pops to go to her house to "get things ready" instead of going to church. They didn't get back until 2:30. And she already had everything set up. We had all the food and beer at our disposal.

Thopras

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
regularguy said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Broncos crew ranks as the worst for tackle inflation, so I was tempted to just play all unders across the board for tackle props tonight. Decided to take a shot on the TJ Ward over due to price, but not sure I'd recommend that or the other .5u play.

all at 5d:

1u Reid U5.5 (-145)

1u V.Miller U4.5 (-115)

1u Marshall U8.5 (-145)

.5u TJ Ward O6.5 (+125)

.5u Bethea U6.5 (-145)

also played DEN TT O27 (-125) at RB.
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Great stuff. :thumbup:
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ThanksShould have stuck with the Under on everybody like I wanted to. They all hit.
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Did the mainstream books grade Reid a win or no action?

 
So Betus had the Royals to win the series 4-0 @ +750 but then in their specials they had the Royals to win 4-0 @ +1200 so Royals in a sweep for me 22/264.

 
the official NFL gamebooks will have snap counts up later today if necessary. But, being listed in the starting lineup should be sufficient I think.

 
snap counts have been added to the gamebook. Reid played 54 defensive snaps and 5 snaps on special teams.

http://nflgsis.com/2014/Reg/07/56274/Gamebook.pdf

no action would really make no sense here, so I'll be shocked if they don't correct it. I had both bovada and 5d grade it incorrectly. not sure if other books made the same mistake.

 
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so, I guess the people at Bovada aren't too bright.

they replied to my request with this:

[SIZE=small]We've checked the results of your wager with Reference Number ##### and found this wager was settled correctly. Player Eric Reid was scheduled for the starting line up but didn't enter the game.[/SIZE]

This information can be found by clinking on the link provided below:
http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=400554307
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they linked to an ESPN box score that shows him getting zero tackles, but has no mention of who played or didn't play.

 
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Aaron Rudnicki said:
Aaron Rudnicki, on 20 Oct 2014 - 11:33 AM, said:snap counts have been added to the gamebook. Reid played 54 defensive snaps and 5 snaps on special teams.

http://nflgsis.com/2014/Reg/07/56274/Gamebook.pdf

no action would really make no sense here, so I'll be shocked if they don't correct it. I had both bovada and 5d grade it incorrectly. not sure if other books made the same mistake.
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Wow, 54 snaps for a safety against Manning and he can't even get into the box score? Shame on him. Great play.

 
The college football card looks a but dry this week from a side perspective. I booked Marshall but that's about it.

Anyone see the total for the Cal Ore game yet? Got to be 80's.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
so, I guess the people at Bovada aren't too bright.

they replied to my request with this:

[SIZE=small]We've checked the results of your wager with Reference Number ##### and found this wager was settled correctly. Player Eric Reid was scheduled for the starting line up but didn't enter the game.[/SIZE]

This information can be found by clinking on the link provided below:
http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=400554307
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they linked to an ESPN box score that shows him getting zero tackles, but has no mention of who played or didn't play.
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Bovada isn't budging on this.

So weird. How can people be this stupid?

 
I just chatted with 5dimes, and they agreed to fix it after I sent him the link to the gamebook. No idea if the fix is universal or by account.

 
got the first response from Bovada at 10:51am central

I replied at 10:57am telling them they were wrong

They sent another response at 11:49am telling me I was wrong and they wouldn't change it.

I sent a long response at 12:14pm explaining in great detail why they were wrong.

I just checked my account a few minutes ago and it shows as a win. Graded as 12:02pm so I guess my last response wasn't necessary. Idiots.

:shrug:

 
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TheGooRoo said:
lumpy19 said:
lumpy19, on 20 Oct 2014 - 2:14 PM, said:
swirvenirvin said:
swirvenirvin, on 20 Oct 2014 - 12:31 PM, said:dont see too much out there for value. Foster over 90.5 maybe but dont normally like to take overs on those high numbers
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Deandre at 4 receptions....based on the last game I watched this team play that should be his o/u for the rest of the season
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I've got 4.5 at several books. :X
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thats what I saw mostly.

His targets to date 5-5-9-6-6-2 so with the 2 you would assume a bounce back to 5 or 6 targets. Still dont see a ton of value. PFF has Cortez Allen nad the 4th worst CB out there, but Hopkins only lines up on his side 34% of the time. He went up vs the 3rd worst PFF corner last week, and AJ went up vs the 3rd best on Vonta Davis, and we saw how that went.....

AJ and Hopkins moves around a ton back and forth so not sure the corner grades matter much, and the fact that grizzly adams just locks in on AJ anyways.

 
comfortably numb said:
Aaron,

thoughts on

Watt 5.5

Timmons 8

Polamalu 5.5

?
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Pit crew is pretty neutral (1.16 tackles/opp) so no real edge there. Games there have typically ranked high in tackle opportunities though so my general lean would be slightly towards overs.

That's a big number for Watt, but I can't go against him on MNF.

Timmons I'd lean over due to Foster matchup, but he's a bit inconsistent.

I generally lean under for Polamalu but according to PFF, he's playing in the box 75% of the time and doing pretty well in run defense so I wouldn't be shocked if he went over here.

not really seeing a big edge for any of those.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
comfortably numb said:
Aaron,

thoughts on

Watt 5.5

Timmons 8

Polamalu 5.5

?
Click to expand...
Pit crew is pretty neutral (1.16 tackles/opp) so no real edge there. Games there have typically ranked high in tackle opportunities though so my general lean would be slightly towards overs.

That's a big number for Watt, but I can't go against him on MNF.

Timmons I'd lean over due to Foster matchup, but he's a bit inconsistent.

I generally lean under for Polamalu but according to PFF, he's playing in the box 75% of the time and doing pretty well in run defense so I wouldn't be shocked if he went over here.

not really seeing a big edge for any of those.
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Appreciate it

Polamalu caught my eye as it just seems he is all over the place on MNF games

 
Since 2010, road teams playing on #MNF after playing the previous week on Thursday (having extra time to prepare for #MNF) are 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS (avg line 0.4). Narrow those teams down to the ones lined ≥ -3 and you get a record of 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS (avg line 3.5). It's confusing because you would think those teams would have performed better with the extra time between games. I'd like to fade the public road dog and then buy the Steelers tonight, if that's what the situation turns out to be.

Additionally, even though they haven't played at home on Monday since 2012, the Steelers are 15-0 SU L15 (since 1992) at home on Monday Night Football. They are 10-5 ATS in those games against an average line of -6.5, but failed to cover their L3 at home on #MNF, as all three games were won by exactly three points, two of those decided in overtime. But since it's 2014, I think that Steeler trend is more interesting for trivia purposes than to use as a betting angle.

I'm just saying, the extra time to prepare angle doesn't check out. Stilll lots of time to decide though.

 
Again, this is 2014, but since they were established in 2002 the Texans are 6-14 SU and 4-15-1 ATS in primetime. They've covered a spread once in 14 primetime games since 2009.

 
comfortably numb said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
comfortably numb said:
Aaron,

thoughts on

Watt 5.5

Timmons 8

Polamalu 5.5

?
Click to expand...
Pit crew is pretty neutral (1.16 tackles/opp) so no real edge there. Games there have typically ranked high in tackle opportunities though so my general lean would be slightly towards overs.

That's a big number for Watt, but I can't go against him on MNF.

Timmons I'd lean over due to Foster matchup, but he's a bit inconsistent.

I generally lean under for Polamalu but according to PFF, he's playing in the box 75% of the time and doing pretty well in run defense so I wouldn't be shocked if he went over here.

not really seeing a big edge for any of those.
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Appreciate it

Polamalu caught my eye as it just seems he is all over the place on MNF games
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yeah mostly jumping offsides

 
ESPN Mike said:
Anyone liking Andre at over 5.5 receptions? Targets are still there for him.
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Here is what 1 and 2 receivers have done so far vs Pitt. It's not an awful line if looking for the over

Andrew Hawkins CLE 1 W 30-27 (h) 10 8 87 0 8.7 Miles Austin CLE 1 W 30-27 (h) 3 2 20 0 2.0 Steve Smith BAL 2 L 6-26 (a) 10 6 71 0 7.1 Torrey Smith BAL 2 L 6-26 (a) 3 1 10 0 1.0 Kelvin Benjami CAR 3 W 37-19 (a) 11 8 115 1 17.5 Philly Brown CAR 3 W 37-19 (a) 9 7 66 0 6.6 Louis Murphy TB 4 L 24-27 (h) 11 6 99 0 9.9 Vincent Jackso TB 4 L 24-27 (h) 10 3 32 1 9.2 Allen Robinson JAC 5 W 17-9 (a) 11 5 51 0 5.1 Allen Hurns JAC 5 W 17-9 (a) 11 4 26 0 2.6 Miles Austin CLE 6 L 10-31 (a) 3 2 29 0 2.9 Andrew Hawkins CLE 6 L 10-31 (a) 2 0 0 0 0.0Here is AJ

Code: 
Week	Opp	Result	Target	Rec	Yard	Avg	TD	FFPts1	WAS	W 17-6	9	6	93	15.5	0	9.32	at OAK	W 30-14	7	6	74	12.3	0	7.43	at NYG	L 17-30	11	4	24	6.0	0	2.44	BUF	W 23-17	7	6	71	11.8	0	7.15	at DAL	L 17-20	8	5	58	11.6	0	5.86	IND	L 28-33	12	7	99	14.1	1	15.9
 
swirvenirvin said:
ESPN Mike said:
Anyone liking Andre at over 5.5 receptions? Targets are still there for him.
Click to expand...
Here is what 1 and 2 receivers have done so far vs Pitt. It's not an awful line if looking for the over

Andrew Hawkins CLE 1 W 30-27 (h) 10 8 87 0 8.7 Miles Austin CLE 1 W 30-27 (h) 3 2 20 0 2.0 Steve Smith BAL 2 L 6-26 (a) 10 6 71 0 7.1 Torrey Smith BAL 2 L 6-26 (a) 3 1 10 0 1.0 Kelvin Benjami CAR 3 W 37-19 (a) 11 8 115 1 17.5 Philly Brown CAR 3 W 37-19 (a) 9 7 66 0 6.6 Louis Murphy TB 4 L 24-27 (h) 11 6 99 0 9.9 Vincent Jackso TB 4 L 24-27 (h) 10 3 32 1 9.2 Allen Robinson JAC 5 W 17-9 (a) 11 5 51 0 5.1 Allen Hurns JAC 5 W 17-9 (a) 11 4 26 0 2.6 Miles Austin CLE 6 L 10-31 (a) 3 2 29 0 2.9 Andrew Hawkins CLE 6 L 10-31 (a) 2 0 0 0 0.0Here is AJ

Week Opp Result Target Rec Yard Avg TD FFPts1 WAS W 17-6 9 6 93 15.5 0 9.32 at OAK W 30-14 7 6 74 12.3 0 7.43 at NYG L 17-30 11 4 24 6.0 0 2.44 BUF W 23-17 7 6 71 11.8 0 7.15 at DAL L 17-20 8 5 58 11.6 0 5.86 IND L 28-33 12 7 99 14.1 1 15.9
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I just looked at this exact thing. Appears to be some support for AJ o and Hopkins u (4.5). Only thing I'm on is Brown o 6 -105.

 
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Here's AJ's last few prime time games (not sure how to find SNF) so these are either Monday or Thursday night

10/9/2014 12 targets 7 receptions for 99 yards

12/5/2013 21 targets 13 receptions for 154

9/9/2103 16 targets 12 receptions for 146

10/8/2012 6 targets 1 reception 15 yards

11/22/2012 15 -11 -188

12/10/2012 10-8-95

11/1/2010 10-7-106

12/2/2010 9-6-149

12/13/2010 14-9-140

Pretty huge numbers I guess I just talked myself into some AJ overs

 
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