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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (5 Viewers)

ChainsawU said:
Since 2010, road teams playing on #MNF after playing the previous week on Thursday (having extra time to prepare for #MNF) are 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS (avg line 0.4). Narrow those teams down to the ones lined ≥ -3 and you get a record of 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS (avg line 3.5). It's confusing because you would think those teams would have performed better with the extra time between games. I'd like to fade the public road dog and then buy the Steelers tonight, if that's what the situation turns out to be.

Additionally, even though they haven't played at home on Monday since 2012, the Steelers are 15-0 SU L15 (since 1992) at home on Monday Night Football. They are 10-5 ATS in those games against an average line of -6.5, but failed to cover their L3 at home on #MNF, as all three games were won by exactly three points, two of those decided in overtime. But since it's 2014, I think that Steeler trend is more interesting for trivia purposes than to use as a betting angle.

I'm just saying, the extra time to prepare angle doesn't check out. Stilll lots of time to decide though.
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In on PIT ml

:terribletowel:

 
Billy Bats said:
swirvenirvin said:
TheGooRoo said:
On top of the data that supports Brown o 6 reception...

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/07/tomlin-defends-late-throw-to-antonio-brown/

You gotta think that 6 is his floor.

ETA: sorry it looks like all the main online books have 6.5.
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oh yeah ben has talked about knowing about it too and will feed him the ball, wish i had a 6 out there best is 5d at -105 at 6.5
Click to expand...
I'm seeing a 6 but at -150. :eek:
Click to expand...
where at? should get to 6, a lot to pay tho

 
I'd like to give a shout-out to my homie Little Pistol Starter, and also to fat girls who ride **** with a t-shirt on. Thank you.

 
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swirvenirvin said:
TheGooRoo said:
lumpy19 said:
lumpy19, on 20 Oct 2014 - 2:14 PM, said:

swirvenirvin said:
swirvenirvin, on 20 Oct 2014 - 12:31 PM, said:

dont see too much out there for value. Foster over 90.5 maybe but dont normally like to take overs on those high numbers
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Deandre at 4 receptions....based on the last game I watched this team play that should be his o/u for the rest of the season
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I've got 4.5 at several books. :X
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thats what I saw mostly.His targets to date 5-5-9-6-6-2 so with the 2 you would assume a bounce back to 5 or 6 targets. Still dont see a ton of value. PFF has Cortez Allen nad the 4th worst CB out there, but Hopkins only lines up on his side 34% of the time. He went up vs the 3rd worst PFF corner last week, and AJ went up vs the 3rd best on Vonta Davis, and we saw how that went.....

AJ and Hopkins moves around a ton back and forth so not sure the corner grades matter much, and the fact that grizzly adams just locks in on AJ anyways.
Click to expand...
Brice McCain most likely will start in place of Cortez Allen FWIW

 
The Ref said:
TheGooRoo said:
On top of the data that supports Brown o 6 reception...

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/07/tomlin-defends-late-throw-to-antonio-brown/

You gotta think that 6 is his floor.

ETA: sorry it looks like all the main online books have 6.5.
Click to expand...
He grabs 6-7 then O 95 has to be in the cards you would think?
Click to expand...
Not necessarily. At least 3 of his catches will be bubble screens. However, I do think the Steelers will take a few deep shots this week after taking virtually none the last two weeks.

 
A dude at HEB today was asking the butcher about some short ribs and how they coincided with the recipe he obviously found on Pintrest. He had some beef ribs and was like, "Are these short ribs (I found a recipe on Pintrest)?" and "Are these short ribs 'trimmed' do I have to trim the fat off?" I stepped in and was like, "Hello friend, what you have there are indeed short ribs, but any type of beef rib will do. As beef ribs are typically very fatty in the first place it would make no sense for you to try to trim the fat off." He seemed pleased, and the butcher had already washed his hands, so I felt like I had done a good deed. Thank you.

 
small IDP plays for me tonight.

.5u Watt O5.5 (+120) - Watt on MNF worth a shot at those odds, but I think they've dropped a bit.

.75u Cushing O7.5 (-135) - hoping he bounces back from last week's debacle
.75u Timmons U8.5 (-110) (he was listed at O8 (-115) at Bovada so this was mostly a value play)

I played both sides on Polamalu and am hoping he lands right on 6.

.5u O5.5 (-130) at 5d

.5u U6.0 (-115) at sportsbetting

 
comfortably numb said:
ChainsawU said:
Since 2010, road teams playing on #MNF after playing the previous week on Thursday (having extra time to prepare for #MNF) are 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS (avg line 0.4). Narrow those teams down to the ones lined ≥ -3 and you get a record of 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS (avg line 3.5). It's confusing because you would think those teams would have performed better with the extra time between games. I'd like to fade the public road dog and then buy the Steelers tonight, if that's what the situation turns out to be.

Additionally, even though they haven't played at home on Monday since 2012, the Steelers are 15-0 SU L15 (since 1992) at home on Monday Night Football. They are 10-5 ATS in those games against an average line of -6.5, but failed to cover their L3 at home on #MNF, as all three games were won by exactly three points, two of those decided in overtime. But since it's 2014, I think that Steeler trend is more interesting for trivia purposes than to use as a betting angle.

I'm just saying, the extra time to prepare angle doesn't check out. Stilll lots of time to decide though.
Click to expand...
In on PIT ml

:terribletowel:
Click to expand...
on Pit as well.

GLTA

 
swirvenirvin said:
Billy Bats said:
swirvenirvin said:
TheGooRoo said:
On top of the data that supports Brown o 6 reception...

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/07/tomlin-defends-late-throw-to-antonio-brown/

You gotta think that 6 is his floor.

ETA: sorry it looks like all the main online books have 6.5.
Click to expand...
oh yeah ben has talked about knowing about it too and will feed him the ball, wish i had a 6 out there best is 5d at -105 at 6.5
Click to expand...
I'm seeing a 6 but at -150. :eek:
Click to expand...
where at? should get to 6, a lot to pay tho
Click to expand...
My local's Mickey mouse site... Abcwagering

 
ChainsawU said:
I'd like to give a shout-out to my homie Little Pistol Starter, and also to fat girls who ride **** with a t-shirt on. Thank you.
Click to expand...
Wouldn't that make playing with their big floppy ####### difficult, or we talking about the dreaded fat chick with little ####

Oh and Wheaton 1st TD please

 
Raider Nation said:
TheGooRoo said:
Raider Nation said:
I'm a tad scared of Stacy, Goo. Mason can ball out.

I probably won't end up with him because someone is sure to value him more than I do.
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He went 3.11 in my last draft. I'm a buyer there for sure. I don't think Mason is ready to take too many carries.
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I'm going to tell my fictional grandchildren about this moment.
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Print it out and frame it.

"The day I got the better of gooroo." /Richard Sherman

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
small IDP plays for me tonight.

.5u Watt O5.5 (+120) - Watt on MNF worth a shot at those odds, but I think they've dropped a bit.

.75u Cushing O7.5 (-135) - hoping he bounces back from last week's debacle

.75u Timmons U8.5 (-110) (he was listed at O8 (-115) at Bovada so this was mostly a value play)

I played both sides on Polamalu and am hoping he lands right on 6.

.5u O5.5 (-130) at 5d

.5u U6.0 (-115) at sportsbetting
Click to expand...
I've always liked playing for middles/sides like your Polamalu bets. I'm curious though why you didn't try the same on Timmons when the cost was actually less on it.

 
ChainsawU said:
comfortably numb said:
In on PIT ml

:terribletowel:
Click to expand...
I DL'd the album in your avatar last week and listened to it in my car all day. It was new to me. What is up with their long intros. And when did you stop fading my trends1?

1. situational capping scenarios
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lol, yea very long intros. Some people like em some people don't. That's their "art" i suppose.

was at their concert once with a friend (nuggs...this was AJ) and during one of their long intros, i look over and AJ is passed out snoring....snoring at a tool concert.

 
regularguy said:
I've always liked playing for middles/sides like your Polamalu bets. I'm curious though why you didn't try the same on Timmons when the cost was actually less on it.
Click to expand...
I'm cut at Bovada so my options are limited. I don't remember what sportsbetting had for Timmons. I did think about playing both sides on him too, but started liking the under a bit more so just stuck with that.

 
Let me just say I was glad I was vacationing and not trying to divine out any more big winners like that UK bet... Buncha tailing tonight imo :thumbup:

 
comfortably numb said:
ChainsawU said:
comfortably numb said:
In on PIT ml

:terribletowel:
Click to expand...
I DL'd the album in your avatar last week and listened to it in my car all day. It was new to me. What is up with their long intros. And when did you stop fading my trends1?

1. situational capping scenarios
Click to expand...
lol, yea very long intros. Some people like em some people don't. That's their "art" i suppose.

was at their concert once with a friend (nuggs...this was AJ) and during one of their long intros, i look over and AJ is passed out snoring....snoring at a tool concert.
Click to expand...
Love their shows...Danny Carey absolutely murders the drums at the end of 46&2

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
regularguy said:
I've always liked playing for middles/sides like your Polamalu bets. I'm curious though why you didn't try the same on Timmons when the cost was actually less on it.
Click to expand...
I'm cut at Bovada so my options are limited. I don't remember what sportsbetting had for Timmons. I did think about playing both sides on him too, but started liking the under a bit more so just stuck with that.
Click to expand...
Makes sense now about Bovada. Sbetting had Timmons at 8 -105/-125 shortly before KO. I took a shot at 8/8.5.

 
Timmons going to go over by halftime. I didn't expect Houston to dominate the ball this much. I liked O8 too. Oh well.

 
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