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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (9 Viewers)

2-1 yesterday, 3-2 for the year.

Today's plays

Mets +125 - I like Neise, but I'm really not a Nolasco fan...one of those sabermetrics guys who never truly breaks out as we wait for it...see Dave Bush. Stanton most likely won't play, which can only help the Mets case.

Red Sox +100 - I think they are the best team in baseball, I may play them at + money all year (at least against RHP). Lackey was shaky last year, but I see him bouncing back, although not to his peak form. Lewis was new to the league last year (kind of), let's see how he does second time around. Crawford and A-Gon both homer.

Rockies -160 - I like this Rockies team and don't see them starting 0-2 at home. Hudson's fly ball rates are a little high and he didn't get hurt on that last year, things may turn back to normal this year.

 
I am on the following bases plays today:

MIL EV: I think you get Marcum here at a great price. Woods is unproven. I have to hope that Axford does not blow another one :eek:

MIN - 115: A great price on Liriano. Min will rebound after the shallacking they took last night. The back end of Min's bully is a little unsettled, but I still like the odds here.

AZ + 140: Hudson was great at the end of last year, and AZ's ballpark is just as offensively tilted as Coors is, so I do not see this game being in Coors as a big deal for Hudson. RoxSolid is correct about Hudson's flyball rates, but I will back him until he starts to get hurt by it. Given what I see to be a nearly EV game, I'll take the plus odds.

GLTA

AB

Edit to add: 2-1 yesterday and for the year. In a few days, I will start to post records by sides and totals. I am playing for a little over half a normal unit size for now as I warm up to the bases season. These plays above are to risk .6 units (except Min which is to win .6 units)

 
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Thanks for the Flames call last night DD.

Liking the White Sox and Twins early today.

Anyone else like The Padres later?? Richard isn't bad for SD and Holliday is out for the Cards.

 
'D-BO said:
Liking the White Sox and Twins early today.Anyone else like The Padres later?? Richard isn't bad for SD and Holliday is out for the Cards.
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Glad to see someone else on the TwinsI don't trust Richard on the road, but that is just my humble opinion. I looked at that game for a long time and finally passed.
 
Butler 1H ML -145. Counting on the "been there before" factor. Thought the over in UCONN/KY was the best bet of the day, but it just went from 141 to 139 and now I'm scared off. Anyone have a theory why that number plummeted?

 
couple of things I learned today:

STL is going to be worse than expected;

Liriano's velocity is down and almost becomes an instafade until future notice;

 
Shouldn't have had to sweat the 1H ML like that. Butler is the better team. No play for the 2H.

Fairly large play on the Red Sox -105. That lineup is stupid and Lackey should be fine.

 
'lumpy19 said:
'Raider Nation said:
Shouldn't have had to sweat the 1H ML like that. Butler is the better team. No play for the 2H.Fairly large play on the Red Sox -105. That lineup is stupid and Lackey should be fine.
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i'm on Texas -105 :football:
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I gotta warn ya, lump... I'm feelin' it today.Won money at the casino playing blackjack. Hit Butler 1H and their TT o32 (not posted).I have roughly three good days per year, and this feels like one of them. :banned:
 
'Raider Nation said:
'lumpy19 said:
'Raider Nation said:
Shouldn't have had to sweat the 1H ML like that. Butler is the better team. No play for the 2H.Fairly large play on the Red Sox -105. That lineup is stupid and Lackey should be fine.
Click to expand...
i'm on Texas -105 :football:
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I gotta warn ya, lump... I'm feelin' it today.Won money at the casino playing blackjack. Hit Butler 1H and their TT o32 (not posted).I have roughly three good days per year, and this feels like one of them. :banned:
Click to expand...
how ya feelin now? 1-0 texas!! :boxing:
 
'lumpy19 said:
'Raider Nation said:
'lumpy19 said:
'Raider Nation said:
Shouldn't have had to sweat the 1H ML like that. Butler is the better team. No play for the 2H.Fairly large play on the Red Sox -105. That lineup is stupid and Lackey should be fine.
Click to expand...
i'm on Texas -105 :football:
Click to expand...
I gotta warn ya, lump... I'm feelin' it today.Won money at the casino playing blackjack. Hit Butler 1H and their TT o32 (not posted).I have roughly three good days per year, and this feels like one of them. :banned:
Click to expand...
how ya feelin now? 1-0 texas!! :boxing:
Click to expand...
:kicksrock:
 
2-1 again yesterday (hit on Col and NYM, lost with the damn Sox)

Today's plays.

Washington +130 - More of a gut feel play than anything. Watched a decent portion of this game yesterday. Werth and Zimmerman look pretty locked in. Hudson's numbers show that he may have been lucky last year (still think he's really good). Zimmermann has the stuff to pitch with anyone, I'll take the home dog looking to win the series.

Cin/Mil O8.5 - We all know Cincy can hit and Randy Wolf is no ace. On the flip side, Arroyo is pitching with mono and I trust the Brewers lineup to put up some runs as well. Really like this play.

 
was +123

cle +115

cincy -118

bos -132

det +150

atl/was u7 +100

ETA: col -180

 
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:lmao: but I am IN, what the hell. Just realized my car is still at the bar from yesterday's games, ended up out all night, still waking up. Gotta call a cab now, ugh. PLEASE do not be towed. And you know I have to go in and take the edge off by watching the Dodgers beat the Giants and Matt Kemp score a run. :whistle: So when I ask Mikey to put one of the other TVs on this game because some guy named lumpy on the internet bet it, I can't wait to see the reaction I'm going to get. GO FIGHTING IRISH SETTER FEMALE DOGS!!!

:banned:

 
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Split yesterday..5-4 overall so far...

Todays limited card.

I'll go with

Texas -160 - texas is swinging too well for Seattle to keep up. Bedard has the stuff to dominate, but he will likely be injured by the 4th.

Detroit +110 - we saw the bats come to life a little yesterday. As much as I like Baltimore this year, I think Arrieta is a fraud and part of their great start is the fact that the Rays are the worst team in the AL east. Detroit leaves NY happy to have gotten one, and goes into Baltimore and steals their home opener.

Milwaukee -110 - Braves got me yesterday, I don't think Beachy is any good and Milwaukee is a different team at home. I don't see them falling to 0-4.

Best of luck.

 
Rox and others, thanks for that Run Total Over yesterday. I'm not a baseball fan, and the only thing I know about betting bases is that I've heard you have to follow the hot pitcher trends. There was a lot of consensus about that Reds/Brewers Game, so I tailed. Very interested in learning more, might get me interested in baseball again...

...NCAA Hoops Natl Championship: Butler, Butler, Butler.

As improbable as it is for Butler to have returned to this Game after losing last year, it's even more improbable that UConn can have played, and won, in the 1st Round of the Big East Tournament, and still haven't lost. Probability and statistics aside, Butler has a deeper and more diverse rotation at Guard than any Team UConn has played any time in the last 3 months. They all can play defense, and each defends with different tactics. That Boy Wonder of a Coach has a tool in his kit to challenge Walker, it's just a matter of how quickly he finds it, but find it he will, I think.

I don't think I have it in me to play ML, but I'll gladly take points here.

PS: I have an agenda, so it's only fair to fully disclose. UConn has been costing me money since they beat Pitt in the 2nd Round of the Tournament. Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, SDSU, Arizona, Kentucky. I think my lean is unbiased and solid, but I will be ecstatic if I'm on the right side of this one, even more so if it means the Huskies outright lose.

Good Luck!!!

 
Thus far this year I am 2-4 after an 0-3 day on Saturday.

RoxSolid and I are thinking a lot alike on this card.

Mil -110: ATL goes on the road and MIL is desperate to get a W. ATL rolls out their 5th starter who won the job out of spring training. Spring training results (or a lack thereof) do not always translate to the reg season.

Det +110: Balt is not this good. Porcello could be in for a much better season as periphals suggest he was flat out unlucky last year. Balt has a tough everyday lineup, but their pitching is challenged. I am tempted to play the over as well, but I'll stick to the side.

GLTA

AB

 
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