derek245583
Footballguy
Holy dog ####....USA -102 tomorrow is free money!!
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
TheWick
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
optionmaven
Footballguy
I hope so. I have 3 parlays working with this the last leg in all of them. Worth about 225 to me if they win. I now have small bets on the tie and algeria to make sure I'm compensated.
optionmaven
Footballguy
might just be my recollection of him against the white sox, but i never thought of pettitte as a strikeout pitcher. I'm in for a 1/2 buck.Pettitte o 4.5 k's +100 grades out very, very high.
TheWick
Footballguy
The DBacks make every pitcher look like J.R. Richardmight just be my recollection of him against the white sox, but i never thought of pettitte as a strikeout pitcher. I'm in for a 1/2 buck.Pettitte o 4.5 k's +100 grades out very, very high.
optionmaven
Footballguy
cheersThe DBacks make every pitcher look like J.R. Richardmight just be my recollection of him against the white sox, but i never thought of pettitte as a strikeout pitcher. I'm in for a 1/2 buck.Pettitte o 4.5 k's +100 grades out very, very high.
lumpy19
Footballguy
amazingly I faded you before you even postedI played Wesley -130 to play for the twolves a few days agoone NBA draft prop for now:Wesley Johnson to play for any other team than the Twolves +110In for $10stupid sportsbook
EDIT: i don't know much about the NBA draft, so fading this might be advisable
lumpy19
Footballguy
If anyone is bored....I have a wager on Mahut at Wimbledon....he's playing Isner, currently 18-18 in the 5th set and both guys still bombing away with 130-140mph serves. Match was suspended overnight tied at 2 sets and this 5th set is a monster.
ETA: Got mahut at +130...pretty good number considering this match is now 35-35 in the fifth set
ETA: Got mahut at +130...pretty good number considering this match is now 35-35 in the fifth set
Last edited by a moderator:
modogg
Footballguy
lumpy19 said:amazingly I faded you before you even postedI played Wesley -130 to play for the twolves a few days agoone NBA draft prop for now:Wesley Johnson to play for any other team than the Twolves +110In for $10
good luckHave a round robin parlay 6 by 3's on the big dogs today KC +210 W, SD +177 W, Ari +185, Pit +173 , Cle +178 L, Bos +159 
. Cleveland took the lead in the ninth. They had the bases loaded with 1 out and hit into a double play to end the inning. Then Philly scores 2 in the bottom to win. Boston just took the lead though.
, Cle +178 L, Bos +159 . Cleveland took the lead in the ninth. They had the bases loaded with 1 out and hit into a double play to end the inning. Then Philly scores 2 in the bottom to win. Boston just took the lead though.Man that was rough. Won the first two and lost the last three in the ninth or later. Boston led 6-5 in the ninth and gave up two home runs in the bottom to lose 8-6. Arizona led going into the ninth and gave up the tying run. The Yankees took the lead in the tenth, then Arizona had the bases loaded with no outs. A foul out to the catcher, a popup to third, and a strikeout and game over.Have a round robin parlay 6 by 3's on the big dogs today KC +210 W, SD +177 W, Ari +185, Pit +173. Cleveland took the lead in the ninth. They had the bases loaded with 1 out and hit into a double play to end the inning. Then Philly scores 2 in the bottom to win. Boston just took the lead though.
modogg
Footballguy
I'm in
optionmaven
Footballguy
Thoughts on the field bet +350 for home run title. Right now it includes both league leaders (bautista and hart) along with 6 of others in the top ten of each league (konerko, hamilton, wells, guerrero, uggla, rolen). Cabrera a pretty big favorite at +150. Howard right behind him at +250. I'm in with a few others already on pena at 100/1, now at 6/1.
I've been watching that as well. The hottest right now are Dunn (4 in his last 10 games), Reynolds and Adrian Gonzalez (3). I think it's a good bet with the ability to hedge later probably. I'm not sure when they will pull the bet. 3.5 to 1 is pretty good for the leader and 6 of the top 10. It seems that the winner could come from the divisions with weak teams, meaning the NL and AL Central. That favors Cabrera, Hart, and Konerko. I think I heard Toronto is pretty home run friendly.
optionmaven
Footballguy
I like the white sox to jump on zambrano today. quarter parlay whitesox ml -143 and over 8.5. whitesox -1.5 @ +145. A little leary because the sox are on a tear (9 game winning streak) and past history of day games just so-so. Sox have a great interleague record though and Z sucks monkey balls.
lumpy19
Footballguy
Favorites friday
CWS -143
NYM -127(nice price for a great home team and pelfrey has really pitched well this season)
Oak -178
I have no opinion on the +350 field HR bet, it's such a crap shoot this year on who wins that title. The pena number was so far off because he hit so many in such a short span. Last year pujols was easy money....sb keeps those lines up all year, i'm going to let it play out some more to see if they are slow on any more lines.
I have a significant investment in chile this afternoon both on futures to advance and on them at least drawing with spain.
Baseball numbers are tight as a drum at this point. The last few weeks I haven't seen much to bet on at all in baseball. I think this is right about where this happened last year, I can't wait for football season to get here. World cup has been a nice distraction.
CWS -143
NYM -127(nice price for a great home team and pelfrey has really pitched well this season)
Oak -178
I have no opinion on the +350 field HR bet, it's such a crap shoot this year on who wins that title. The pena number was so far off because he hit so many in such a short span. Last year pujols was easy money....sb keeps those lines up all year, i'm going to let it play out some more to see if they are slow on any more lines.
I have a significant investment in chile this afternoon both on futures to advance and on them at least drawing with spain.
Baseball numbers are tight as a drum at this point. The last few weeks I haven't seen much to bet on at all in baseball. I think this is right about where this happened last year, I can't wait for football season to get here. World cup has been a nice distraction.
D-BO
Footballguy
Plus the Cubbies played 13 yesterday and had to travel. I like the Sox alot today.
zander_s
Footballguy
I put a round robin on this. Looks good!!
zander_s
Footballguy
Just need Oakland to come through.
modogg
Footballguy
wow, nice job guys. I see Oakland is up 14-4 in the btm of the 8th. i will have to tail along next time.
Last edited by a moderator:
modogg
Footballguy
Pretty funny with the run differential. Braves still doing alright with +67, but the Phils have got to +41. I see the Mets improved as bit themselves to +56, but don't be surprised if the Phils lead this in a few weeks. Just saying, Phils still at +250 is sportsbook teasing all of us, and this is a perfect opportunity to rape and pillage sportsbook.Really? Flyers just went to the stanley cup finals and the phillies won the series in 2008 and lost it in 2009. you really think philly teams haven't had success?I have no delusions that the mets can keep this up. Your problem is the braves. +67 run differential compared to phillies +21. That's a significant difference. Still a lot of baseball but the Phillies have to climb over the mets(+41) and the braves at this point. +250 seems like a pretty fair line.Interesting about them moving the juice based on making the bets fair. I haven't looked into much either at this point, but how can you not like the Eagles Lump?? One of these stupid Philly teams has to have success one of these days, no?
There is one homer line i have been hitting up, and will continue to do so for a bit. sportsbook has the Phillies to win the NL East +250. The Braves are the favorite there at -300. I think the line is a huge over-reaction to the Phils hitting the usualy slump they hit in the summer. The only thing that has me a little concerned is what the Phils, Braves and Mets will do when the trade deadline comes around. There are some very good pitchers that may be available. But still, the Phils at +250 is very good value, even for hopeless Mets fans
cosjobs
Footballguy
I am All over the Dodgers today. Not so much on them, altho I love Kuroda, but AGAINST AJ Burnett. He has been throwing batting pactrice in his last games and his arm appears DEAD>
12u LAD -120
7u LAD -1.5 +175
And a little .3u rr parlay by 5/6s
COMPACT ROUND ROBIN (6P-5T,1P-6T)
[902] FLA -1½+120
( J GARLAND -R / J JOHNSON -R )
[909] HOU +260
( ACTION )
[914] ATL -1½+170
( M SCHERZER-R / K KAWAKAMI-R )
[915] SEA +135
( ACTION )
[924] LOS -120
( ACTION )
[225] TCU +145
( ACTION )
12u LAD -120
7u LAD -1.5 +175
And a little .3u rr parlay by 5/6s
COMPACT ROUND ROBIN (6P-5T,1P-6T)
[902] FLA -1½+120
( J GARLAND -R / J JOHNSON -R )
[909] HOU +260
( ACTION )
[914] ATL -1½+170
( M SCHERZER-R / K KAWAKAMI-R )
[915] SEA +135
( ACTION )
[924] LOS -120
( ACTION )
[225] TCU +145
( ACTION )
derek245583
Footballguy
Tomorrow's England/Germany Match:
No Goal Scorer (+550)
So, if it goes to extra time 0-0 I get 5.5- 1 odds?? And if someone wins 1-0 and the goal is an Own Goal, I still get 5.5-1??
I think I like that.
No Goal Scorer (+550)
So, if it goes to extra time 0-0 I get 5.5- 1 odds?? And if someone wins 1-0 and the goal is an Own Goal, I still get 5.5-1??
I think I like that.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
* Super Special Sunday Parlay *
>>> STL / NYY <<<
>>> STL / NYY <<<
derek245583
Footballguy
Argentina Team Total Over 1.5
Argentina -1
Both hit pretty hard.
Argentina -1
Both hit pretty hard.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Put all of yesterday's winnings on Verlander (+113) and Oswalt (+155).
Verlander's up 6-0.
I think Oswalt will be showing his best stuff in what is basically an audition for Nolan Ryan & Ranger management, who have made no secret that they want to sign him if the team ownership can get straightened out.
Verlander's up 6-0.
I think Oswalt will be showing his best stuff in what is basically an audition for Nolan Ryan & Ranger management, who have made no secret that they want to sign him if the team ownership can get straightened out.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
G'day gents!
I know some of you hate Covers dot com (Goo Roo, hey!), but there is a guy killing it with a "1st inning - YES run" chase system. Pretty simple Martingale-ish concept. Put a unit on a run being scored in the 1st inning of one of the early games. If it hits, it's profit and you start the process all over again. If not, you double up on the next set of games, and so forth.
The great part about this system is that most people bet NO, so the vig is typically shaded that way. If you look at the box scores from day to day, it looks as though there is a run scored in the first inning in about half the games. So it's BOUND to happen if you keep plugging away at it. If you keep your unit size reasonable, you will almost always get a 1st inning run eventually before you ever reach the max bet that the books allow. I'm just wondering if they'll cut you off at some point.
I know some of you hate Covers dot com (Goo Roo, hey!), but there is a guy killing it with a "1st inning - YES run" chase system. Pretty simple Martingale-ish concept. Put a unit on a run being scored in the 1st inning of one of the early games. If it hits, it's profit and you start the process all over again. If not, you double up on the next set of games, and so forth.
The great part about this system is that most people bet NO, so the vig is typically shaded that way. If you look at the box scores from day to day, it looks as though there is a run scored in the first inning in about half the games. So it's BOUND to happen if you keep plugging away at it. If you keep your unit size reasonable, you will almost always get a 1st inning run eventually before you ever reach the max bet that the books allow. I'm just wondering if they'll cut you off at some point.
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
This is a BAD idea.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Go on....
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
You know why.
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Because you're a compulsive parade-rainer?
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
LOL, man I am just trying to help you. Martingale is awful.Because you're a compulsive parade-rainer?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I hear ya. I just get the itch when I see a system that's killing. But I know the odds will catch up with him.LOL, man I am just trying to help you. Martingale is awful.Because you're a compulsive parade-rainer?
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
If you think it's a profitable system, just flat bet them. You can make the plays without martingaling them. But if you know that if you lose a few in a row that you're going to be tempted to double up and chase, then you probably should just stay away.I hear ya. I just get the itch when I see a system that's killing. But I know the odds will catch up with him.LOL, man I am just trying to help you. Martingale is awful.Because you're a compulsive parade-rainer?
Last edited by a moderator:
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Tribe is right. Martingdale makes money nearly every time, but once you hit the inevitable bad run you will be broke.
Flat betting is better. And yes I do agree "yes" run in 1st inning are generally good.
Flat betting is better. And yes I do agree "yes" run in 1st inning are generally good.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Whaddup MP. Football season is just around the corner. +EV!
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Honestly I may be done gambling. Not sure how I am even going to get money offshore.Whaddup MP. Football season is just around the corner. +EV!
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Honestly I may be done gambling. Not sure how I am even going to get money offshore.Whaddup MP. Football season is just around the corner. +EV!
Go to Walmart or a supermarket. Sending a Western Union or MoneyGram takes all of 5 minutes.MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Isn't WU like $500 limit?Honestly I may be done gambling. Not sure how I am even going to get money offshore.Whaddup MP. Football season is just around the corner. +EV!
lumpy19
Footballguy
It's not that hard to get money offshore. My bank debit/credit card still works and it's from a major bank.Fedex a cashiers check, moneygram, western union.Honestly I may be done gambling. Not sure how I am even going to get money offshore.Whaddup MP. Football season is just around the corner. +EV!
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Nope. MG either. I would actually recommend MG. It's a flat 10 or 11 bucks with them. If your book reimburses you for transfer costs, go with WU. The paperwork goes a bit smoother.Isn't WU like $500 limit?Honestly I may be done gambling. Not sure how I am even going to get money offshore.Whaddup MP. Football season is just around the corner. +EV!
For anyone who doesn't want to deal with the legal ambiguity and the difficulty getting money in and out of online sportsbooks, you should try one day fantasy sports contests. Pretty much the same idea, except you pick a group of players with a salary cap for the day, and since it's completely legal in most states, you can use Paypal and credit card to deposit and do instant withdrawals by Paypal or have checks sent to you. Individual contests are for up to $100, but it's pretty easy to get $500-$1,000 worth of action against a variety of opponents each day if you want.
Last edited by a moderator:
lumpy19
Footballguy
So I deposit $50 to play a match and if I win I get $40. Pretty tough to beat the rake with those numbers. You're pulling 10% out of every match, that's brutal.ETA: My $50 wager at a sportsbook with -110 lines would net me $45.45.....that fantasy site is like betting at a sportsbook with -120 lines
Last edited by a moderator:
I know it does sound brutal, but there are plenty of long term winners. Part of the reason it's possible to overcome the rake is that you can choose which opponents to play against. Another is that you're choosing 9 players from a large pool of choices. That means that the stronger players are going to have a bigger edge than in sports betting (where you're generally making a single choice from just two options). For comparision, at the low buy-ins, competing sites range from 10%-20%. At the higher buy ins, some sites go a little bit lower. But even with the 20% taken out at one site, there are some long term winners. What happens is that fewer good players are willing to play with 20% rake, so the competition is weaker...which causes the sites to reach sort of an equilibrium where they all end up being about equally difficult to beat.
