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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
zander_s
Footballguy
We move on
cosjobs
Footballguy
Jun 29 MLB [957] PIT +170 [Action]
Jun 29 MLB [959] HOU +195 [Action]
Jun 29 MLB [961] ARI +280 [Action]
Jun 29 MLB [975] DET +130 [Action]
Jun 29 MLB [979] TEX +118 [Action]
Fraction of a unit by 2s, 4s and 5
Also about half a unit each straight on all the above
A lot of those faves are not nearly as good as their prices.
Jun 29 MLB [959] HOU +195 [Action]
Jun 29 MLB [961] ARI +280 [Action]
Jun 29 MLB [975] DET +130 [Action]
Jun 29 MLB [979] TEX +118 [Action]
Fraction of a unit by 2s, 4s and 5
Also about half a unit each straight on all the above
A lot of those faves are not nearly as good as their prices.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
How did you not have Cliff Lee at +150 in there? Guy pitched his third CG in a row, talk about auditioning...
cosjobs
Footballguy
I was clearly trying to pick all losers in my original post.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
So why wasn't LHUCKS in your parlay?
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
I didn't even look at those, sorry, but let's turn the page... WE MOVE ON.I give you, good sir, the SLBD WORLD CUP QUARTER FINAL MONSTER PAR ESPECIAL!
PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[6034] BRAZIL -110
[6037] URUGUAY EV
[6043] GERMANY DRAW +210
[6046] SPAIN -1-110
200 / 4319
cosjobs
Footballguy
I'll ride that horseI didn't even look at those, sorry, but let's turn the page... WE MOVE ON.I give you, good sir, the SLBD WORLD CUP QUARTER FINAL MONSTER PAR ESPECIAL!
PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[6034] BRAZIL -110
[6037] URUGUAY EV
[6043] GERMANY DRAW +210
[6046] SPAIN -1-110
200 / 4319
modogg
Footballguy
sond good enough, i'm in
zander_s
Footballguy
I can't find it! But i'm drinking pretty heavy! :lmo:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Should've posted this in here earlier, forgot, but thoughts on Wimbledon...
So what about these semi-final matchups? Oddsmakers put the Bird and the Joker at a pick'em. I don't see it. Djokovic is a 3-seed and in line for a major. He wasn't playing his best tennis coming in so he has been totally under the radar. Not now though, and especially not after Federer's fall. If he needed a shot in the arm, there it is. Granted, Berdych looks good in his own right, but he's 0 - 2 against Djokivic. I think they are putting too much weight on his Federer win with that line. That was not the Federer we used to know.
Give me The Joker at a nice price.
Similarly, I think Murray is a little overvalued. The great British hope is now in his best position to finally join Fred Perry in many people's eyes, especially the press. But I don't see how the hurdle in front of him isn't as big as it's ever been in Nadal. Raga in his prime is better than anybody out there. Isn't he in his prime right now? And it's not like the pressure, or the crowd, will get to him... He loves that ####. So, I take Nadal at -170 here; a very good price considering.
Anyway, there are my picks and thoughts on the value therein. Regardless, both matches could still go either way, as well as whatever Final shakes out...gonna be some great tennis this weekend.
Prediction: Nadal over Djokivic in 5.
So what about these semi-final matchups? Oddsmakers put the Bird and the Joker at a pick'em. I don't see it. Djokovic is a 3-seed and in line for a major. He wasn't playing his best tennis coming in so he has been totally under the radar. Not now though, and especially not after Federer's fall. If he needed a shot in the arm, there it is. Granted, Berdych looks good in his own right, but he's 0 - 2 against Djokivic. I think they are putting too much weight on his Federer win with that line. That was not the Federer we used to know.
Give me The Joker at a nice price.
Similarly, I think Murray is a little overvalued. The great British hope is now in his best position to finally join Fred Perry in many people's eyes, especially the press. But I don't see how the hurdle in front of him isn't as big as it's ever been in Nadal. Raga in his prime is better than anybody out there. Isn't he in his prime right now? And it's not like the pressure, or the crowd, will get to him... He loves that ####. So, I take Nadal at -170 here; a very good price considering.
Anyway, there are my picks and thoughts on the value therein. Regardless, both matches could still go either way, as well as whatever Final shakes out...gonna be some great tennis this weekend.
Prediction: Nadal over Djokivic in 5.
lumpy19
Footballguy
Prop at bookmaker, player with the most k's at the end of the season
22805 JARED WEAVER +200
22806 TIM LINCECUM +220
22807 YOVANI GALLARDO +250
22808 DAN HAREN +250
22809 JON LESTER +350
22810 FIELD +150
I took the field at +150, max is $250
I get king felix, wainwright, halladay, kershaw, josh johnson, liriano, etc
22805 JARED WEAVER +200
22806 TIM LINCECUM +220
22807 YOVANI GALLARDO +250
22808 DAN HAREN +250
22809 JON LESTER +350
22810 FIELD +150
I took the field at +150, max is $250
I get king felix, wainwright, halladay, kershaw, josh johnson, liriano, etc
Sorry Mo, really thought Brazil would have a better result against the Dutch than Cameroon or Japan.
modogg
Footballguy
It happens, i imagine a lot of people out there thought the same thing about Brazil. Soccer has to pay off one of these days
cosjobs
Footballguy
WagerType:COMPACT ROUND ROBIN (10P-3T,5P-4T,1P-5T)
Date: Team:
Jul 02 MLB [904] PIT +140 [Action]
Jul 02 MLB [907] FLA -130 [Action]
Jul 02 MLB [909] SFO -110 [Action]
Jul 02 MLB [913] LOS -125 [Action]
Jul 02 MLB [915] HOU +150 [Action]
for 1/8th unit ea
2Teamer with SF and FLA for 2 u
Date: Team:
Jul 02 MLB [904] PIT +140 [Action]
Jul 02 MLB [907] FLA -130 [Action]
Jul 02 MLB [909] SFO -110 [Action]
Jul 02 MLB [913] LOS -125 [Action]
Jul 02 MLB [915] HOU +150 [Action]
for 1/8th unit ea
2Teamer with SF and FLA for 2 u
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
He does mean OVER on Verlander, right?
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
yes, fixed. gl!
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
it was either stars or stripes, went with stars....tomorrow will be stripes. FYI Verlander has been upgrade.I need plays which are at least 254 stars, so I can only play Barmes.
modogg
Footballguy
I hope you guys were joking with thinking the Mets will win the NL East. Today's game against the Nats is a perfect example of how the Mets will not win anything for a long time. The Phils are limping along, and will start to play for real after the all-star break like they have done for some time now. Why bust your nut before the all-star break? And the Mets just suck, plain and simple. The Phils, Braves and Marlins could leave the NL East, and the Mets would still not win itI think the Mets win the NL EastInteresting about them moving the juice based on making the bets fair. I haven't looked into much either at this point, but how can you not like the Eagles Lump?? One of these stupid Philly teams has to have success one of these days, no? There is one homer line i have been hitting up, and will continue to do so for a bit. sportsbook has the Phillies to win the NL East +250. The Braves are the favorite there at -300. I think the line is a huge over-reaction to the Phils hitting the usualy slump they hit in the summer. The only thing that has me a little concerned is what the Phils, Braves and Mets will do when the trade deadline comes around. There are some very good pitchers that may be available. But still, the Phils at +250 is very good value, even for hopeless Mets fansMo don't assume that just because all the lines aren't -110 on both sides that they've been bet. On season win totals books often just move the juice around to make the bet fair.I'm completelyto see that you like the eagles over.....completely against what you normally do
I haven't found anyone else with posted lines, I'm sure there are pretty large mistakes in these lines but I havne't done any NFL research yet.
lumpy19
Footballguy
1 blown save in a 162 game seasonyou must have bet on the mets today to get this angry over a blown save for a team which you hatekeep fighting for your phils....i don't think they catch ATL.
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modogg
Footballguy
Yes I did. What were they up 5-1. Ugh, I hate betting on baseball, who would have guessed the Nats bats would come back like that to win. Oh well, we move on. And we'll see about the Phils and Bravevs. My guess is the Phils will have a nice run sometime after the all-star break, so i can at least arbitrage the bet since i put a lot down when the Phils went to +250. Give me the Braves and +200 during that Phils run, and it should work out alright
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
God did I sweat two of those. Wouldn't you know that two of them come up as the 2nd to last, and very last players to the plate. Both because of walks too. Ichiro's last AB with a runner on 3rd, who got there by indifference and a passed ball. 
And then Barmes gets up for 5TH TIME in the game with 2 outs in the 9th. If he gets a hit, I lose 300 on props. If he doesn't, 1200 my way. What a swing for one AB! Crazy.LaRoche didn't start, darn it, but what a day regardless. SO glad I opened this thread. I owe you man, thanks!
modogg
Footballguy
Thank you Mr. Halladay. I think I will hold off on playing too many run lines with the Phils when the back of their order is Dobbs, Valdez, and Sardinha (Dobbs actually went 2 for 3, so I am not trying to hate on him). Same can be said for Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino though, they need to start finding their groove.
hooter311
Footballguy
Thanks for the play mo, I was on it pretty heavy.Sweated a little bit in the 8th, hoping for some offense.
Also on NYY -1.5 (even) and SEA -1.5 (-105) tonight
Not a big RL guy, but I just really liked the plays today.
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modogg
Footballguy
No problem. My baseball info is pretty horrible, but i can catch a break every once in awhile. And I am glad both Schaub and Lytle won this Saturday which had to work pretty well for you if you put your balance on the line with either of them.
hooter311
Footballguy
Didn't place any balance wagers, but was lucky enough to cash on Madsen, Schaub, Lytle, Sotiropolus, and Leben. Lost my big bet on Carwin and a very small one on Pertizelli, still came out ahead a couple hundred on the night. Would have been a couple grand if Carwin would have pulled through.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Would you guys recommend any of the books (or emails they send you) on this page?
http://www.professionalgambler.com/order.html
http://www.professionalgambler.com/order.html
lumpy19
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Nice. Just ordered it. Thanks.
I had no idea Wong was a sports bettor. I thought he was only the "jump in and jump out" blackjack guy. LOL.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
You guys know people who do arbitrage/scalping full time, and successfully?
http://www.sportsarbitrageguide.com/introduction/
It would definitely take the "action rush" out of play, but making guaranteed cash is rush enough.
Three main questions before I proceed with intense research:
1) How many different online books would you need?
2) How much of an initial stake would it take?
3) What is the best Arb Alert Service out there?
http://www.sportsarbitrageguide.com/introduction/
It would definitely take the "action rush" out of play, but making guaranteed cash is rush enough.
Three main questions before I proceed with intense research:
1) How many different online books would you need?
2) How much of an initial stake would it take?
3) What is the best Arb Alert Service out there?
derek245583
Footballguy
MarshallPlan?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Is that ALL he does? Strictly? I thought he also dabbled in "normal" pick-one-side gambling as well.This stuff looks interesting. I definitely have the patience for it and a good head for numbers, and I could get the start-up capital together no problem. The intimidating part is finding 30-50 reputable books... not to mention learning how to bet cricket matches!
I wonder if one of these first two books would help me get started.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url...p;x=16&y=14
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Used to dabble and never would again - not worth the time. And yes you do need lots of money to really make anything worthwhile.Last year I would bet things like +120 on the under and +110 on the over guaranteeing free profit but those were few and far between.
If Pinny has braves -102 and bodog (or some square book) has phils +105 then the Phils would be my play. I may bet both but I would bet more on the Phillies.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
From the limited research I've done in the past hour plus, it looks like the bulk of the arbing is done with footy matches and other stuff in foreign countries. I can see where that would be a turnoff, but these arb alert services claim to send you real-time emails telling you EXACTLY what to bet and at which books to bet it to turn a sure profit.Is that false?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Wow, I didn't realize that Pinny offers live betting on every MLB game. Cool.
http://www.pinnaclesports.com/League/Baseb...ve/1/Lines.aspx
I really gotta sign up there.
http://www.pinnaclesports.com/League/Baseb...ve/1/Lines.aspx
I really gotta sign up there.
lumpy19
Footballguy
RN you're 3 years late to arb'ing. Pinnacle is a must for this and I think you live in the US so that's not an option for you. You can still arb using matchbook but in today's offshore climate I think it's a waste of time. Books are quick to limit and you'll burn through them too fast. It's much more difficult without neteller to do something like this.
You seem eager and willing to put in the time to win at this hobby. Spread your money around to several books, take advantage of all the signup bonuses out there and spend your time looking for soft lines and slow moving books. That experience will help you build your online bankroll and learn how the offshore sports world works. Beat up on props and small markets with smaller limits and after getting cut or shutout from those you'll have the bankroll to handle the major sports and the tiny win rates on those lines.
To be successful at sports betting you'll need to spend a lot of time in front of a computer.
You seem eager and willing to put in the time to win at this hobby. Spread your money around to several books, take advantage of all the signup bonuses out there and spend your time looking for soft lines and slow moving books. That experience will help you build your online bankroll and learn how the offshore sports world works. Beat up on props and small markets with smaller limits and after getting cut or shutout from those you'll have the bankroll to handle the major sports and the tiny win rates on those lines.
To be successful at sports betting you'll need to spend a lot of time in front of a computer.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
, all of it.I wish I had held off a bit on posting last night until I did my homework first. I found out exactly what you just said from a lot of guys I respect on other forums. It's a GRIND ... books don't leave their legs open anymore, etc. Oh well, I'm always late to the party. I ordered that book you recommended, as well as King Yao's book and a couple more.
The Smart Money is the best gambling book I've ever read, but it's more non-stop bragging than a "how-to" book.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
What he said. Focus on small markets and beating up on bad books. I have never won any money from Pinny (when we could bet there) or Matchbook. Once I realized this and took it to heart, I did a whole lot better.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
You got shut off at Pinny?I was reading one guy (forget which forum) who simply uses Pinny as the be all, end all in his decision making process. In other words, he uses their lines as gospel, and if he sees another book with a line way off from theirs, he buries it. The idea being that Pinny doesn't make mistakes and is the industry leader in tight lines. Who knows if that is profitable or not.
modogg
Footballguy
Well bud, I think it would be pretty sweet for you to read up on those books and provide us all with the cliff notes when you are done
I ordered that book you recommended, as well as King Yao's book and a couple more.
The Smart Money is the best gambling book I've ever read, but it's more non-stop bragging than a "how-to" book.
. I certainly don't have much to add to this conversation since I spend time trying to keep my head above water, but there may be opportunities to arb with some of the smaller sports. I still can arb well with MMA plays, but you have to know the sport and know where the public will put the money down. That being said, you still are lucky to hit around 75% because you will miss some, but I imagine there may be opportunity with some of the other sports. Biggest one is like Lump said though with having to be by a computer a lot. When they release the MMA lines the books can move those lines fast, and i imagine there are not any hidden gems anymore, anywhere. Either way good luck. You keep at it, and bounce enough ideas off people you are bound to find your spot at some point. If you want, put all your money on the Phils to win the NL East. They are just screwing around these days playing grab ### with the locker room, they should screw their heads on straight after the all-star break (caveat: it is very hard to have any faith in the Phils these days, I am just banking that if we keep believeing it will happen)
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Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Thanks mo... 
So let's say I wanted to post up at 5 different books, minimum. I'm already at the Greek.
What are a few other MUST books for line shopping, besides Pinny? Does SB pay out quickly enough these days?
So let's say I wanted to post up at 5 different books, minimum. I'm already at the Greek.
What are a few other MUST books for line shopping, besides Pinny? Does SB pay out quickly enough these days?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I'll take the A's for seven BILLION dollars tonight.
Nobody can bring a winning streak to a crashing halt like brain-dead, bird face A.J.
Nobody can bring a winning streak to a crashing halt like brain-dead, bird face A.J.
