Guster
Footballguy
Bama -24Nice. Good call.
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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
John Bender
Footballguy
Sorry for those who tailed the system plays.
Panthers ended up qualifying too which hurt.
I don't post last week and it goes 2-0; I post this week and it's 0-3
All 3 teams did cover in a teaser tho which was nice.
Anyway, this system is obviously flawed. I think it works when using it to fade non public teams.
Ie: last week Browns were only getting 9% of the action vs Bengals and they won outright as dogs.
This week we faded 3 of the biggest public teams in the country in Green Bay, New Orleans, and Dallas. Those betting numbers are just going to be lopsided no matter what and the public teams aren't going to go 0-16 ATS.
Poor logic by me just because it worked one weekend.
Conversely, I tried it on college this weekend and it went 0-7. Books had to have gotten killed on those games. I don't know, will try to retool this. Definitely the worst full week of gambling ever.
Yankees but cost 7.5 units, college cost 7.7 units and NFL cost 3.3 units. Gross
Panthers ended up qualifying too which hurt.
I don't post last week and it goes 2-0; I post this week and it's 0-3
All 3 teams did cover in a teaser tho which was nice.
Anyway, this system is obviously flawed. I think it works when using it to fade non public teams.
Ie: last week Browns were only getting 9% of the action vs Bengals and they won outright as dogs.
This week we faded 3 of the biggest public teams in the country in Green Bay, New Orleans, and Dallas. Those betting numbers are just going to be lopsided no matter what and the public teams aren't going to go 0-16 ATS.
Poor logic by me just because it worked one weekend.
Conversely, I tried it on college this weekend and it went 0-7. Books had to have gotten killed on those games. I don't know, will try to retool this. Definitely the worst full week of gambling ever.
Yankees but cost 7.5 units, college cost 7.7 units and NFL cost 3.3 units. Gross
mquinnjr
Footballguy
ETA: Looking for Wong possibilities early week before line movements for NFL home teams is a profitable endeavor. Going to ride such until burned.Keep your head up, GB. Marathon, not a sprint.
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optionmaven
Footballguy
over 16.5 4th quarter -120. Figured steelers would at least get a field goal immediately there at the minimum making the number really 13.5.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Stillers!
General Malaise
Footballguy
Stillers!
General Malaise
Footballguy
Did Hawkins die, Rude? How did he have 2 rec in Q1 and blanked since?
optionmaven
Footballguy
Bengals +260 for a quarter unit. down 24=17Tied at 17. Bengals +100 for a quarter unit to cover play on steelers +220.The rothy pick in the end zone hurt my plans a little. Then giving them the short field on the fumble made it worse. Bouught a quarter unit on steelers +220, when Ref was looking at the +7. Holding tight for now. Slightly weighted on steelers.Nice job.
2 catches on the first drive and no targets since I think. Meanwhile some guy named Whalen is getting all the looks. Stupid.
Well vegas isn't stupid. That's a lot of points though. I'm thinking I'm going to wait an place the first half lineBama -24Nice. Good call.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Easy win here. Game 7!
lumpy19
Footballguy
NFL teasers should be placed as close to gametime as possible. If you think the line is going to move you should be betting the side straight
Guster
Footballguy
Not enough evidence to overturn? 
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What prop does it impact?Edit: tackles for Rey I guess
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mquinnjr
Footballguy
Panthers and Bengals to more than a TD at home worked?Thanks for the kneel down, Big Ben.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I know there is the "Thong Song" but is there the Wong song? Because I'm dancing to that beat. 
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Sportsbook is dangling a couple stinky lines on NBA division winners:
Knicks +400
Bulls even
Mavs +1200
Knicks +400
Bulls even
Mavs +1200
mquinnjr
Footballguy
I know there is the "Thong Song" but is there the Wong song? Because I'm dancing to that beat.
Needs a little refinement. But, perfect.
:hearmeroar:
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Chelsea at +1400 to win the CL? They got some guys who can actually play this year! Hit me!
bosoxs45
Footballguy
Kenjon Barner should be the clubhouse leader for Heisman, imo.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Giants @ 10-13
espn tells me that 13 of last 14 home teams have won after forcing a game 7 down 3-2 in the series.
espn tells me that 13 of last 14 home teams have won after forcing a game 7 down 3-2 in the series.
ScoobySnack
Footballguy
ESPN also said that the Cardinals are 11-4 in Game 7's and the Giants are 0-5 so no clue what to think. Also aren't these Cardinals like 5-0 in their last 5 games facing elimination? They won the play in game this year vs Atl, Game 5 vs the Nats, Games 6&7 vs the Rangers last year along with game 5 vs the Philly last year as well.ETA That the Giants have won 5 elimination games this year. 3 vs the Reds and 2 vs the Cards!!!
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I don't think he gets half the hype that De'Anthony Thomas does or LaMichael James did. His numbers don't seem that crazy good, but I could see him being a finalist to represent that team.
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swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Been waiting for ND to play a real opp. No the Big ten doesn't count neither does navy Army, Air Force and whoever else they play.
Oklahoma -10 for 3.5 units for me.
Oklahoma -10 for 3.5 units for me.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
I don't think any of these stats mean all that much, to be honest. A lot of those games are with completely different teams, w/ Pujols, etc. etc.It's a high number, but o9 pitchers used -105 is tempting. All hands on deck, and what-not. So is Cain NO HR -150.
John Bender
Footballguy
optionmaven
Footballguy
Words of wisdom. Bankroll Management my friend. Don't chase, Don't get greedy, wait for the strong plays and make your "action" plays reasonable. That being said, I think the Bears light em up(Homer). I would like the over normally with these two, but its pouring down rain with thunderstorms here in chitown and possibly at game time too.don't do this.
John Bender
Footballguy
0-10 this weekend on my plays posted here.
2-10 overall.
I ####### forgot to post the "Let It Whip" song.
Dammitall. Guarantee that's what happened here.
2-10 overall.
I ####### forgot to post the "Let It Whip" song.
Dammitall. Guarantee that's what happened here.
sdp1226
Footballguy
Thank you for the advice but.....Words of wisdom. Bankroll Management my friend. Don't chase, Don't get greedy, wait for the strong plays and make your "action" plays reasonable. That being said, I think the Bears light em up(Homer). I would like the over normally with these two, but its pouring down rain with thunderstorms here in chitown and possibly at game time too.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I know there is the "Thong Song" but is there the Wong song? Because I'm dancing to that beat.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Hearing Romney just about even with Obama in prelim polls two weeks before the election and getting him at +400 right after the first debate, this is just feeling like fantastic value at this point. No matter how this shakes out, dog backers are going into the final weeks with a great ticket and will make this all the more exciting.
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Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
I think the books/markets/538 are about right having Obama as a 2-1 favorite. +400 still a great value though, obviously.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
I am thinking DET keeps this closer than 6.5. Divisional game on Monday night. DET with enough weapons to keep CHI off balance and vice versa. I think this is a tight game that comes down to late in the 4th. Maybe a good game to play both sides of during live wagering.
gussy
Footballguy
Hedging my Hedge..............FML. Bet enough on the Giants at -137 to buy me out of my Cardinals Hedge, where I bet enough
to cover my initial investment on my 2 unit bet DET at 6 to 1 to win the WS that I made prior to the playoffs. FML.
As a Cubs fan I believe this allows me to root for the Giants tonight, correct? I'm so effing confused
to cover my initial investment on my 2 unit bet DET at 6 to 1 to win the WS that I made prior to the playoffs. FML.
As a Cubs fan I believe this allows me to root for the Giants tonight, correct? I'm so effing confused
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ChainsawU
Footballguy
I don't see it. Dome team on the road in wet weather. Versus the number one run defense.. add to it Lovie Smith off the bye week and his team playing on MNF to boot..I am thinking DET keeps this closer than 6.5. Divisional game on Monday night. DET with enough weapons to keep CHI off balance and vice versa. I think this is a tight game that comes down to late in the 4th. Maybe a good game to play both sides of during live wagering.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Low-interest loans? 
Detroit is coming off their bye as well, and just won a tough road game over the Eagles. Lions pass rush should give the Bears offensive line some problems.
I'm taking the points tonight.
Weather doesn't sound like it will be a factor.
I'm taking the points tonight.
Weather doesn't sound like it will be a factor.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
He plays on credit and wins/doesn't erode his bank roll resulting in outgoing payments???
