FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)

[Aaron Rudnicki]

lol @ stafford

 

[Guster]

Soft coverage by the Bears

 

[Guster]

:X

 

[bryan11joseph]

YES LIONS TD!

 

[Guster]

Hell of a back door cover

 

[Billy Bats]

Yea, we all know how this game is going to end.

####### amazing.Nah, this #### ain't fixed.

 

[swirvenirvin]

In all 5 of their games combined, the Lions have had the lead for a grand total of :22.

Bears 1st qtr -.5

Was thinking about this at work today and then forgot about. Thanks for the reminder. Think this had to be the play vs the lions the remainder of the year or at least the 1st half against. They suck, and then make every game look close by scoring TD's in the 4th qtr with less than 2 minutes left that are usually meaningless

 

[gussy]

Huge NFL card today and I REALLY like a bunch of games. That usually means I'm in for an ### whipping. Here goes:Card's +7 -PUSHCowboys -2 (2 units) WINRams +6 -LOSSRams +200 ML (just under 1/3 unit) -LOSSTexans -7 -WINBucs +3 -LOSSBills -3 -LOSSGiants -6 -LOSSTB/NO over 49 -WINGB/St. L over 45 -WINNE/NYJ over 47 -WINOak/Jax under 44 1/2 -LOSS6 team 7 point teaser: LOSSNiners PK -WINCards +13 -WINTexans PK -WINGiants +1 -WINPats -4 -LOSSBears +17 team parlay with the spreads from above with -LOSSSF, AZ, NYG, BUF, HOU, TB, CHI7 point teaser -WINSF PKHOU PK6 point teaser -WINSF -1NYG PK9 team 7 point teaser -WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER!AZ +14 -WINHOU PK -WINRAMS +13 -WINBOYS +5 -WINNYG +1 -WINBUCS +8 1/2 -WINJETS +18 -WINOAK +1 -WINCHI +1/2 -WIN2012 NFL RECORD26-25-1 +1.66 units

Added a couple of late bets. Made the Cowboys a 2 unit play.Played the overs in both the GB/ST. L. game and the NO/TB game.And NYJ/NE over 47Oak/Jax under 44 1/2

9 team teaser paid 12 to 1, plus 6 units! Cha Ching!

 

[swirvenirvin]

crap 0-3 on prop, lost by .5 5.5 and 18.5

 

[Good Posting Judge]

****TACTICAL DISCUSSION****

I think Obama salted it away tonight, barring some massive scandal/voter fraud over the next couple weeks. My guess is that he's going to be back up to around -300 tomorrow. Best spots to get him were either early on pre-conventions, or after that first debate.

 

[The Ref]

****TACTICAL DISCUSSION****I think Obama salted it away tonight, barring some massive scandal/voter fraud over the next couple weeks. My guess is that he's going to be back up to around -300 tomorrow. Best spots to get him were either early on pre-conventions, or after that first debate.

Trade Ohio. Nothing else matters. If every single cable outlet came out and said Barry won 67 to 33 tonight, and Rasmusen came out with a poll that showed Ohio was 51-49 Mitt I'd start buying mitt anything above even money.

 

[ArbyMelt]

****TACTICAL DISCUSSION****I think Obama salted it away tonight, barring some massive scandal/voter fraud over the next couple weeks. My guess is that he's going to be back up to around -300 tomorrow. Best spots to get him were either early on pre-conventions, or after that first debate.

Trade Ohio. Nothing else matters. If every single cable outlet came out and said Barry won 67 to 33 tonight, and Rasmusen came out with a poll that showed Ohio was 51-49 Mitt I'd start buying mitt anything above even money.

The debate tonight is not gonna move any lines. Intrade is about the same. I've been playing Romney in NC, Florida, Col and VA, and Obama in a few other states. I think its a coin flip for the electoral win right now.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

****TACTICAL DISCUSSION****I think Obama salted it away tonight, barring some massive scandal/voter fraud over the next couple weeks. My guess is that he's going to be back up to around -300 tomorrow. Best spots to get him were either early on pre-conventions, or after that first debate.

Trade Ohio. Nothing else matters. If every single cable outlet came out and said Barry won 67 to 33 tonight, and Rasmusen came out with a poll that showed Ohio was 51-49 Mitt I'd start buying mitt anything above even money.

The debate tonight is not gonna move any lines. Intrade is about the same. I've been playing Romney in NC, Florida, Col and VA, and Obama in a few other states. I think its a coin flip for the electoral win right now.

If the first debate could move the debate that significantly, than this one can certainly repair the damage for Obama/erase Romney's gains. To quote from Mr. Silver's Twitter:

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeightI have no idea what (if any) bounce the debate will produce. Important to note, however, that a 1-point swing is HUGE at this point.

FWIW.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I think the first debate is always most watched and most important

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I think the first debate is always most watched and most important

This year the second debate got just under 1 million less viewers, not incredibly significant with an audience of 67 million. This one will surely draw less due to MNF and baseball on at the same time. Foreign policy is certainly the one people have trouble grasping, just read the debate thread tonight.

 

[The Ref]

Out of respect for the best Thread in the FFA, I'm not going to take us down the rabbit hole that is politics. I'll simply say I don't think you can bet Barry at the odds he is laying with Ohio so close. If you can get Mitt at +200 or better then go for it. Until we get more news on Ohio, you are trading on information that doesn't matter. From what I can tell neither guy can win without Ohio. The Math doesn't work with Florida being locked up by Mitt. Also - Ohio has gone with the winner of the election in 10 of the last 10 elections.

 

[The Ref]

The Refs 5 point plan to ensure a good Monday night.

Step 1 Write Gooroo

Step 2 Play Gooroo props

Step 3 Cash Out

Step 4 Buy Hot Tub

Step 5 Enable Wife turn the clock back on our marriage back about 4 years

 

[General Malaise]

oof. that hurt a lot.

 

[ChainsawU]

Here is a lot of info on both teams for the Sun Belt game tomorrow:

Arkansas St. Team Notes

Louisiana-Lafayette Team Notes

 

[ChainsawU]

In five of their seven games, Arkansas State averaged 37.4 rushing attempts with 37, 37, 37, 37 and 39.

They rushed 56 times when they beat Alcorn 56-0. And 54 times when they beat Memphis.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Out of respect for the best Thread in the FFA, I'm not going to take us down the rabbit hole that is politics. I'll simply say I don't think you can bet Barry at the odds he is laying with Ohio so close. If you can get Mitt at +200 or better then go for it. Until we get more news on Ohio, you are trading on information that doesn't matter. From what I can tell neither guy can win without Ohio. The Math doesn't work with Florida being locked up by Mitt. Also - Ohio has gone with the winner of the election in 10 of the last 10 elections.

Silver gives Obama a 72% chance of winning Ohio, and Romney a 67% chance of winning FL. Don't know if I'd say either is necessarily locked up. And it is more feasible that Obama wins without Florida than Romney without Ohio.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Out of respect for the best Thread in the FFA, I'm not going to take us down the rabbit hole that is politics. I'll simply say I don't think you can bet Barry at the odds he is laying with Ohio so close.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Out of respect for the best Thread in the FFA, I'm not going to take us down the rabbit hole that is politics. I'll simply say I don't think you can bet Barry at the odds he is laying with Ohio so close. If you can get Mitt at +200 or better then go for it. Until we get more news on Ohio, you are trading on information that doesn't matter. From what I can tell neither guy can win without Ohio. The Math doesn't work with Florida being locked up by Mitt. Also - Ohio has gone with the winner of the election in 10 of the last 10 elections.

Silver gives Obama a 72% chance of winning Ohio, and Romney a 67% chance of winning FL. Don't know if I'd say either is necessarily locked up. And it is more feasible that Obama wins without Florida than Romney without Ohio.

also from his pagerobability that a state provides the decisive electoral vote:1. Ohio: 49.9%2. Wisconsin: 10.0%3. Virginia: 10.0%4. Nevada: 8.7%5. Iowa: 6.8%Man, Ohio is going to be nuts on election day.

 

[Guster]

Out of respect for the best Thread in the FFA, I'm not going to take us down the rabbit hole that is politics. I'll simply say I don't think you can bet Barry at the odds he is laying with Ohio so close. If you can get Mitt at +200 or better then go for it. Until we get more news on Ohio, you are trading on information that doesn't matter. From what I can tell neither guy can win without Ohio. The Math doesn't work with Florida being locked up by Mitt. Also - Ohio has gone with the winner of the election in 10 of the last 10 elections.

Silver gives Obama a 72% chance of winning Ohio, and Romney a 67% chance of winning FL. Don't know if I'd say either is necessarily locked up. And it is more feasible that Obama wins without Florida than Romney without Ohio.

also from his pagerobability that a state provides the decisive electoral vote:1. Ohio: 49.9%2. Wisconsin: 10.0%3. Virginia: 10.0%4. Nevada: 8.7%5. Iowa: 6.8%Man, Ohio is going to be nuts on election day.

It's kinda taken me by surprise a little. If I recall, isn't Ohio worth fewer electoral votes this year due to rezoning/census changes?I was expecting "us" to be less important, but judging by the volume of political fliers I'm getting in the mail each day, it clearly isn't. Oh, and I put 1u on Obama to win Ohio

 

[Tiger Fan]

FYI, Bama dropped to -23.5

 

[lumpy19]

detroit got hammered overnight, betonline opened at -125 and now sits at -165

verlander -140 G1 o6.5-120 are the lines they posted

Series line makes sense with the Verlander/Zito matchup in G1

 

[Leroy Hoard]

detroit got hammered overnight, betonline opened at -125 and now sits at -165verlander -140 G1 o6.5-120 are the lines they postedSeries line makes sense with the Verlander/Zito matchup in G1

verlander needs to win for them to win the series imo, I'd rather take his -140 than their -165.

 

[cheese]

Cardinals to win World Series, just over 1 1/2 units to win 2 units. Covers me on my 2 unit bet on the Tigers to win it all at 6-1.Odds were 13-10.

I'm going Giants 18-1If they win tonight, the odds are going to come down big time. I think either team is beating the Tigers and the Giants are capable of 3 straight here. The biggest challenge is tonight.

1 big one down, 6 to go

 

[The Ref]

Tonight.

O

 

[The Ref]

Just made a different type of "bet". I just bought a futures contract for the right to purchase tickets to the national championship game if the Oregon Ducks make the game.

Thing id I'd be bummed to miss the game if it's K-State or ND or one of these other teams. But if it's a Bama vs Oregon game, there is no way I'm not going.

 

[derek245583]

Out of respect for the best Thread in the FFA, I'm not going to take us down the rabbit hole that is politics. I'll simply say I don't think you can bet Barry at the odds he is laying with Ohio so close. If you can get Mitt at +200 or better then go for it. Until we get more news on Ohio, you are trading on information that doesn't matter. From what I can tell neither guy can win without Ohio. The Math doesn't work with Florida being locked up by Mitt. Also - Ohio has gone with the winner of the election in 10 of the last 10 elections.

Silver gives Obama a 72% chance of winning Ohio, and Romney a 67% chance of winning FL. Don't know if I'd say either is necessarily locked up. And it is more feasible that Obama wins without Florida than Romney without Ohio.

also from his pagerobability that a state provides the decisive electoral vote:1. Ohio: 49.9%2. Wisconsin: 10.0%3. Virginia: 10.0%4. Nevada: 8.7%5. Iowa: 6.8%Man, Ohio is going to be nuts on election day.

It's kinda taken me by surprise a little. If I recall, isn't Ohio worth fewer electoral votes this year due to rezoning/census changes?I was expecting "us" to be less important, but judging by the volume of political fliers I'm getting in the mail each day, it clearly isn't. Oh, and I put 1u on Obama to win Ohio

Judging by the signs in the yards....I think Mitt takes OhioOf course, I havent ventured into the ghetto or Cleveland yet...

 

[gussy]

Cardinals to win World Series, just over 1 1/2 units to win 2 units. Covers me on my 2 unit bet on the Tigers to win it all at 6-1.Odds were 13-10.

I'm going Giants 18-1If they win tonight, the odds are going to come down big time. I think either team is beating the Tigers and the Giants are capable of 3 straight here. The biggest challenge is tonight.

1 big one down, 6 to go

I hedged out of my Cardinals bet last night by playing SF. I'm letting DET ride at this point. I'm confident.

 

[pricklypete]

Sportsbook users.

Do you guys have the Packers/Jags lines showing up for you?

 

[cheese]

I think so too Derek, but Cincy usually does it's own thing so it's impossible to tell what the rest of the state is doing. I will say that I see WAY less interest in general than the 2008 election. In general I would think low voter turnout is good for Romney, but only if that is across the state and not just here. If SW Ohio isn't interested and the rest of the state is, Obama wins I assume.

I can remember the colleges being on fire for Obama in 2008 though. Barely a whisper this year.

The advertising is just as ridiculous as ever though and both guys being around every week or so is pretty odd.

 

[Treynwreck3]

betus has Detroit -175 and SF +145 for the series.

Verlander is up to -170 versus Zito at +150.

I like the momentum that SF has, but it's hard to bet against Verlander. I'll likely wait until after game 1, hope the SF number goes up and put 3 units on SF to take the series and just play each game/props as I see fit.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

betus has Detroit -175 and SF +145 for the series.

Verlander is up to -170 versus Zito at +150.

I like the momentum that SF has, but it's hard to bet against Verlander. I'll likely wait until after game 1, hope the SF number goes up and put 3 units on SF to take the series and just play each game/props as I see fit.

Not sure why people keep saying this. Giants won all three games in Cincinnati to take that series then promptly came home and lost game 1 and three of the first four. Hockey playoffs have momentum, I really don't think baseball has such a thing.

 

[jamil]

Question for the sportsbook guys:

Just created an account and wanted to know how you guys fund the account? All I have are Mastercards... do those prepaid Visas still work?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

betus has Detroit -175 and SF +145 for the series.

Verlander is up to -170 versus Zito at +150.

I like the momentum that SF has, but it's hard to bet against Verlander. I'll likely wait until after game 1, hope the SF number goes up and put 3 units on SF to take the series and just play each game/props as I see fit.

Not sure why people keep saying this. Giants won all three games in Cincinnati to take that series then promptly came home and lost game 1 and three of the first four. Hockey playoffs have momentum, I really don't think baseball has such a thing.

Momentum? Momentum is the next day's starting pitcher.Earl Weaver

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Question for the sportsbook guys:Just created an account and wanted to know how you guys fund the account? All I have are Mastercards... do those prepaid Visas still work?

I used a regular visa

 

[ChainsawU]

Locking this in now because I see the line going down and I want some action on the Thursday night home dog.

Clemson vs. Wake Forest - ESPN 10/25/12

07:30PM 106 WAKE FOREST +13 -120 (b: 0.5pts)

180/150

 

[Treynwreck3]

betus has Detroit -175 and SF +145 for the series.

Verlander is up to -170 versus Zito at +150.

I like the momentum that SF has, but it's hard to bet against Verlander. I'll likely wait until after game 1, hope the SF number goes up and put 3 units on SF to take the series and just play each game/props as I see fit.

Not sure why people keep saying this. Giants won all three games in Cincinnati to take that series then promptly came home and lost game 1 and three of the first four. Hockey playoffs have momentum, I really don't think baseball has such a thing.

Have you ever played baseball? Momentum is HUGE, especially in the playoffs.The Giants just came back from a 3-1 deficit to win the NLCS. Detroit beat a Yankees team that had largely given up. SF is at home, Detroit has to travel. Granted, due to the pitching matchup, game 1 looks like a Detroit win, but SF has proven that an early deficit hasn't affected them much at all.

I'm sorry if you don't see that the momentum is on SF's side, but there are a lot of people that do.

ETA: Detroit now -180, SF +150.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

betus has Detroit -175 and SF +145 for the series.

Verlander is up to -170 versus Zito at +150.

I like the momentum that SF has, but it's hard to bet against Verlander. I'll likely wait until after game 1, hope the SF number goes up and put 3 units on SF to take the series and just play each game/props as I see fit.

Not sure why people keep saying this. Giants won all three games in Cincinnati to take that series then promptly came home and lost game 1 and three of the first four. Hockey playoffs have momentum, I really don't think baseball has such a thing.

Have you ever played baseball? Momentum is HUGE, especially in the playoffs.The Giants just came back from a 3-1 deficit to win the NLCS. Detroit beat a Yankees team that had largely given up. SF is at home, Detroit has to travel. Granted, due to the pitching matchup, game 1 looks like a Detroit win, but SF has proven that an early deficit hasn't affected them much at all.

I'm sorry if you don't see that the momentum is on SF's side, but there are a lot of people that do.

ETA: Detroit now -180, SF +150.

K, thanks Marshall PlanHAVE YOU EVER PLAYED THE BEISBOL? BECAUSE I WAS A MEMBER OF THE 1986 CALIFORNIA ANGELS AND I KNOW MORE THAN YOU DO! SORRY YOU DON'T SEE IT!!!!!1`111212e111!

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Wait...Scherzer's pitching Game 4? WTF?

 

[Treynwreck3]

Was that necessary?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/23/oct-22-ohio-has-50-50-chance-of-deciding-election/#more-36534

good piece from Silver on Ohio

We are now running about 40,000 Electoral College simulations each day. In the simulations that we ran on Monday, the candidate who won Ohio won the election roughly 38,000 times, or in about 95 percent of the cases.

Unlikely does not equal impossible, but Ohio is central enough in the electoral math that it now seems to matter as much as the other 49 states put together.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Wait...Scherzer's pitching Game 4? WTF?

####### Leyland is a moron but word around the campfire is this changes if the Tigers lose Game 1.

 

[optionmaven]

betus has Detroit -175 and SF +145 for the series.

Verlander is up to -170 versus Zito at +150.

I like the momentum that SF has, but it's hard to bet against Verlander. I'll likely wait until after game 1, hope the SF number goes up and put 3 units on SF to take the series and just play each game/props as I see fit.

Not sure why people keep saying this. Giants won all three games in Cincinnati to take that series then promptly came home and lost game 1 and three of the first four. Hockey playoffs have momentum, I really don't think baseball has such a thing.

Have you ever played baseball? Momentum is HUGE, especially in the playoffs.The Giants just came back from a 3-1 deficit to win the NLCS. Detroit beat a Yankees team that had largely given up. SF is at home, Detroit has to travel. Granted, due to the pitching matchup, game 1 looks like a Detroit win, but SF has proven that an early deficit hasn't affected them much at all.

I'm sorry if you don't see that the momentum is on SF's side, but there are a lot of people that do.

ETA: Detroit now -180, SF +150.

K, thanks Marshall PlanHAVE YOU EVER PLAYED THE BEISBOL? BECAUSE I WAS A MEMBER OF THE 1986 CALIFORNIA ANGELS AND I KNOW MORE THAN YOU DO! SORRY YOU DON'T SEE IT!!!!!1`111212e111!

Holy crap! Doug Decinces is a member of FBG's?? Or is this John Candelaria?? Perhaps an ex whitesox...... pitcher Terry Forster or Brian Downing?? YOu're not Reggie are you??

 

[Leroy Hoard]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/23/oct-22-ohio-has-50-50-chance-of-deciding-election/#more-36534good piece from Silver on Ohio

We are now running about 40,000 Electoral College simulations each day. In the simulations that we ran on Monday, the candidate who won Ohio won the election roughly 38,000 times, or in about 95 percent of the cases.Unlikely does not equal impossible, but Ohio is central enough in the electoral math that it now seems to matter as much as the other 49 states put together.

Another "great thing" about the EC.

 

[optionmaven]

betus has Detroit -175 and SF +145 for the series.

Verlander is up to -170 versus Zito at +150.

I like the momentum that SF has, but it's hard to bet against Verlander. I'll likely wait until after game 1, hope the SF number goes up and put 3 units on SF to take the series and just play each game/props as I see fit.

Not sure why people keep saying this. Giants won all three games in Cincinnati to take that series then promptly came home and lost game 1 and three of the first four. Hockey playoffs have momentum, I really don't think baseball has such a thing.

Have you ever played baseball? Momentum is HUGE, especially in the playoffs.The Giants just came back from a 3-1 deficit to win the NLCS. Detroit beat a Yankees team that had largely given up. SF is at home, Detroit has to travel. Granted, due to the pitching matchup, game 1 looks like a Detroit win, but SF has proven that an early deficit hasn't affected them much at all.

I'm sorry if you don't see that the momentum is on SF's side, but there are a lot of people that do.

ETA: Detroit now -180, SF +150.

K, thanks Marshall PlanHAVE YOU EVER PLAYED THE BEISBOL? BECAUSE I WAS A MEMBER OF THE 1986 CALIFORNIA ANGELS AND I KNOW MORE THAN YOU DO! SORRY YOU DON'T SEE IT!!!!!1`111212e111!

Holy crap! Doug Decinces is a member of FBG's?? Or is this John Candelaria?? Perhaps an ex whitesox...... pitcher Terry Forster or Brian Downing?? YOu're not Reggie are you??

"I'm not the manager because I'm always right, but, I'm always right because I am the manager." ---Gene Mauch---

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Wait...Scherzer's pitching Game 4? WTF?

####### Leyland is a moron but word around the campfire is this changes if the Tigers lose Game 1.

Dear God, why take chances? So in one corner we've got a guy who might let his 2nd best pitcher pitch in Game 4, despite being on full rest, and is just now figuring out that Jose Valverde might not be a great guy to use in any sort of important situation, against a guy who intentionally walks Daniel DeCalso, warms up his best reliever when he's up 6 runs, and refuses to bring his best OF back when he's done with his suspension.I love baseball!