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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (5 Viewers)

AB brings up a very good point about the Zona/OK State game. They play in week 2 of next year's season. This game in essence means nothing to either team. Both teams bring back a lot of their skill position players expect Hunter is a SR and Blackmon is a soph. but I'm guessing will be coming out early. I'm not sure what to really make of it.

Sure they may play vanilla but I'm not sure that gets you anything when preparing for a game 7 months away.

I always like the Under and it's tons of points so it's a lean. And yes I think fading lhucks is a good move. Dog/under for me I guess.

 
Who does everyone like in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl? How about the Quaker Oats Oatmeal Bowl? Baskin Robbins Ice Cream Bowl? The My weed is being smoked in a bong bowl? Any opinions?

 
optionmaven said:
Who does everyone like in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl? How about the Quaker Oats Oatmeal Bowl? Baskin Robbins Ice Cream Bowl? The My weed is being smoked in a bong bowl? Any opinions?
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i only have an answer to the last one...Purple Chongo Kindbud or Some nice Vancouver mids if you're on a budget
 
So OK St is the play?

I'm ignoring LHUCKS projectile bull#### and going with someone here. I got some extra money to play with tonight.

Someone give me a lean.

 
modogg said:
Nice play on the UFC card this Saturday, that is already moving. I put a bunch on it at -135, and checked back about an hour and a half later and it was -170 (all at sportsbook), so hopefully you guys with multiple books can find it at a nice price somewhere. I like it still at -170, but it isn't as pretty:

Jeremy Stephens over Marcus Davis

I'm not even sure how Davis can win this, less then 2% chance he could KO Stephens or submit him. A very good bet i'm quite confident in
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I hate to reply to my own posts here, but if anyone can find Stephens at the original price, hammer it. Being that it changed in a day or 2, and it is MMA, not the NFL, there is a chance some of the books are a little slow at moving this. The stupid thing is -250 now, and hopefully there is a book or 2 that is slow to adjust their lines
 
8 User(s) are reading this topic (0 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)8 Members: John Bender, LHUCKS, hooter311, TheGooRoo, bmj87, Badm, Pigskin Fanatic, zander_s
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LOL - must be the only dude here who uses the email notification system :wolf:
 
John Bender said:
8 User(s) are reading this topic (0 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)8 Members: John Bender, LHUCKS, hooter311, TheGooRoo, bmj87, Badm, Pigskin Fanatic, zander_s
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LOL - must be the only dude here who uses the email notification system :wolf:
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:( . I think when i started this journey tailing GR i had the email notficiation on as well. Lasted a day or 2 before the the notifications got way out of hand.
 
modogg said:
modogg said:
Nice play on the UFC card this Saturday, that is already moving. I put a bunch on it at -135, and checked back about an hour and a half later and it was -170 (all at sportsbook), so hopefully you guys with multiple books can find it at a nice price somewhere. I like it still at -170, but it isn't as pretty:

Jeremy Stephens over Marcus Davis

I'm not even sure how Davis can win this, less then 2% chance he could KO Stephens or submit him. A very good bet i'm quite confident in
Click to expand...
I hate to reply to my own posts here, but if anyone can find Stephens at the original price, hammer it. Being that it changed in a day or 2, and it is MMA, not the NFL, there is a chance some of the books are a little slow at moving this. The stupid thing is -250 now, and hopefully there is a book or 2 that is slow to adjust their lines
Click to expand...
mo - will catch up with you tomorrow on the card when I get a break.

You going with Bully? I like him but Ive never seen the champ as a dog before in a fight, have you?

 
lumpy -

Question - It looks like RAS stopped posting their CFB archived plays after October and a 5 or 6 game losing streak. Was thinking of signing up for CBB but concerned as to why they did this.

Were there simply no plays or did they just stop posting their record after going on a horrid run?

Any insight?

 
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John Bender said:
modogg said:
modogg said:
Nice play on the UFC card this Saturday, that is already moving. I put a bunch on it at -135, and checked back about an hour and a half later and it was -170 (all at sportsbook), so hopefully you guys with multiple books can find it at a nice price somewhere. I like it still at -170, but it isn't as pretty:

Jeremy Stephens over Marcus Davis

I'm not even sure how Davis can win this, less then 2% chance he could KO Stephens or submit him. A very good bet i'm quite confident in
Click to expand...
I hate to reply to my own posts here, but if anyone can find Stephens at the original price, hammer it. Being that it changed in a day or 2, and it is MMA, not the NFL, there is a chance some of the books are a little slow at moving this. The stupid thing is -250 now, and hopefully there is a book or 2 that is slow to adjust their lines
Click to expand...
mo - will catch up with you tomorrow on the card when I get a break.

You going with Bully? I like him but Ive never seen the champ as a dog before in a fight, have you?
Click to expand...
I am trying to think back, but i know the champ has been the dog a few times. Especially with the LHW division when the belt was changing hands every other fight. That is one I am not sure who i like there. Frankie costs me twice in a row, but i definitely can see Grey lay and pray on Frankie for 3 of the 5 rounds. Frankie had a lot of time to figure out how he would deal with that since i don't see any other way Grey can win, so i may lean Frankie if i play at all.
 
modogg said:
John Bender said:
modogg said:
modogg said:
Nice play on the UFC card this Saturday, that is already moving. I put a bunch on it at -135, and checked back about an hour and a half later and it was -170 (all at sportsbook), so hopefully you guys with multiple books can find it at a nice price somewhere. I like it still at -170, but it isn't as pretty:

Jeremy Stephens over Marcus Davis

I'm not even sure how Davis can win this, less then 2% chance he could KO Stephens or submit him. A very good bet i'm quite confident in
Click to expand...
I hate to reply to my own posts here, but if anyone can find Stephens at the original price, hammer it. Being that it changed in a day or 2, and it is MMA, not the NFL, there is a chance some of the books are a little slow at moving this. The stupid thing is -250 now, and hopefully there is a book or 2 that is slow to adjust their lines
Click to expand...
mo - will catch up with you tomorrow on the card when I get a break.

You going with Bully? I like him but Ive never seen the champ as a dog before in a fight, have you?
Click to expand...
I am trying to think back, but i know the champ has been the dog a few times. Especially with the LHW division when the belt was changing hands every other fight. That is one I am not sure who i like there. Frankie costs me twice in a row, but i definitely can see Grey lay and pray on Frankie for 3 of the 5 rounds. Frankie had a lot of time to figure out how he would deal with that since i don't see any other way Grey can win, so i may lean Frankie if i play at all.
Click to expand...
"Gray" (not grey right?) is a monster but I still can't remember a champion dog.was Rashad a dog v. Rampage maybe?

 
Okie State fans are down here in force, there were like 20 to every Arizona fan I guess so this will feel like a home game for Okie State.

Just for the action I'll take the Cowboys.

 
MO - Why Stephens so big?

I feel like the Irish Hand Grenade's biggest chance of losing is by submission and that's not Stephen's strong suit.

No?

 
John Bender said:
So OK St is the play?I'm ignoring LHUCKS projectile bull#### and going with someone here. I got some extra money to play with tonight.Someone give me a lean.
Click to expand...
When the Bowl matchups first came out, I was drooling over OSU, but now, not so much. Besides what's-his-face, I have a buddy that's getting his PHD at UofA now and it's uncanny how good a indicator he is on UofA football. He always loved them and always lost this year. Now he loves OSU. OUCH.Way more importantly, I don't like the way this line went at all, steadily Arizona, all the way down to 4. Not good.I still took it though, basically because I'd kill myself if I got off a game I liked so much initially, for the reasons above.
 
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
John Bender said:
So OK St is the play?

I'm ignoring LHUCKS projectile bull#### and going with someone here. I got some extra money to play with tonight.

Someone give me a lean.
Click to expand...
When the Bowl matchups first came out, I was drooling over OSU, but now, not so much. Besides what's-his-face, I have a buddy that's getting his PHD at UofA now and it's uncanny how good a indicator he is on UofA football. He always loved them and always lost this year. Now he loves OSU. OUCH.Way more importantly, I don't like the way this line went at all, steadily Arizona, all the way down to 4. Not good.

I still took it though, basically because I'd kill myself if I got off a game I liked so much initially, for the reasons above.
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I hear ya, but based on what I've seen in here - what's his name seems to absolutely hate money, so I was just gonna go the other way.

 
I'm off the sandwich games tomorrow, those may be the two worst games of the bowl season. K-State/Cuse makes me puke in my mouth a little, bowl game #35.

I'm trying to talk myself into believing Nebraska gives a #### about the Holiday Bowl but can't yet. I think they'll be pretty flat. Maybe the under in that game? Got some cash riding on Smoo in the early game, that game should be the best of the day by far.

 
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Might add it's been a bad day for me, exactly the opposite of yesterday. Another reason this game gave me pause...

ETA WAIT A MINUTE, the 2nd half over hit in that last game too? I gave up. WOOT!!! Not as bad as I thought today...

 
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John Bender said:
lumpy -Question - It looks like RAS stopped posting their CFB archived plays after October and a 5 or 6 game losing streak. Was thinking of signing up for CBB but concerned as to why they did this.Were there simply no plays or did they just stop posting their record after going on a horrid run?Any insight?
Click to expand...
A few things if you're thinking of signing up1. need to be at a pc from 1045am-1230pm every day to get the side plays in2. need to be at a pc from 530pm-7pm every night to get the total plays in(eta...plan on being around a pc ALL day saturdays)3. need to have several outs to place the bets and you need to be fast. Also need to be ready to fund a new book when the one you're using boots you, and they will boot you.It's a lot of work even though he's doing all the handicapping. This will be my last year using his service, it's very stressful. I paid $2600 for the season so I feel like I need to get every pick at his line and it's tough. I get 99% of them but when I miss one and it cashes it drives me insane. Minimum bet size at this point in the season is $500 if you're going to play, conference play and lines are getting better, probably grind out a few units from here on out. If you're playing less than $500 I don't think it's worth it
 
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lumpy19 said:
John Bender said:
lumpy -Question - It looks like RAS stopped posting their CFB archived plays after October and a 5 or 6 game losing streak. Was thinking of signing up for CBB but concerned as to why they did this.Were there simply no plays or did they just stop posting their record after going on a horrid run?Any insight?
Click to expand...
A few things if you're thinking of signing up1. need to be at a pc from 1045am-1230pm every day to get the side plays in2. need to be at a pc from 530pm-7pm every night to get the total plays in(eta...plan on being around a pc ALL day saturdays)3. need to have several outs to place the bets and you need to be fast. Also need to be ready to fund a new book when the one you're using boots you, and they will boot you.It's a lot of work even though he's doing all the handicapping. This will be my last year using his service, it's very stressful. I paid $2600 for the season so I feel like I need to get every pick at his line and it's tough. I get 99% of them but when I miss one and it cashes it drives me insane. Minimum bet size at this point in the season is $500 if you're going to play, conference play and lines are getting better, probably grind out a few units from here on out. If you're playing less than $500 I don't think it's worth it
Click to expand...
thanks lump. I did notice the movement from the opening line to the closing line and the tout being on the better end of it at least 90% of the time and that's what caused me a lot of concerns.Are there email notifications when the plays are released because bookmaker and sb's online apps are very fast an efficient and I can get the instant notification when an email is sent. I'm at poker tables 6 days a week and can use my phone now (used to not be able to at all) so I can put plays in as fast as my iphone will load the pages.ETA: I have a reliable local but he doesn't put out lines until an hour before tip off or game time so I'm stuck with whatever scores and odds is at, at that point
 
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John Bender said:
MO - Why Stephens so big?I feel like the Irish Hand Grenade's biggest chance of losing is by submission and that's not Stephen's strong suit.No?
Click to expand...
Your right with Gray, but can you really fault me for not knowing how his parent's spelled his name? I mean really, naming your kid Gray does not seem like the best way to raise a stand-out kid who is succesful. Seems to be setting the standards low for your kid, but I digress. And yes, i think the Rampage-Rashad fight had the champ as the underdog, also, Lyoto-Shogun 2, and Lyoto-Rashad. I know Anderson and GSP haven't been dogs forever.I loved Stephens at -135, and liked him at -170. now at -250, he is an alright play. I would even contemplate Davis with the current number, but likely may add Stephens to a parlay. Pretty sure Stephens can KO Davis, i am very confident this will be 3 rounds of standing. Stephens has fault a lot of wars (Stout, Tibau, I think his fight with Cole Miller), and the kid loves to stand and bang. Davis is an old man, who has fought a lot, i could easily see him getting KO'd early in the fight, and if not, Stephens should easily win a decision. I don't think Davis will try and take Stephens down, and that is the only way he could do something. Stephens stand-up is too good, and too multi-faceted for Davis. Now Davis has looked a little better since training with mark Delagrotti, but in all honesty Davis is around 37 or something and had plenty of boxing matches before he even started MMA. His chin isn't what it used to be. This is also Marcus' first fight at 155, could be good or bad from him, but considering Nate Diaz tooled him at 170, i can't imagine he will benefit a whole lot at 155And that 55 yard run with 40 seconds left to go in that Illinois game sucked real, real bad :goodposting:
 
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MarshallPlan said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Might add it's been a bad day for me, exactly the opposite of yesterday. Another reason this game gave me pause...ETA WAIT A MINUTE, the 2nd half over hit in that last game too? I gave up. WOOT!!! Not as bad as I thought today...
Click to expand...
Unbelievable bad beat for my 2h under. Illinois doesn't want to kneel on the ball?
Click to expand...
I'm still laughing at it; just looked up on gametracker to see some bootleg. I love it but yeah, sorry. And I also REALLY love this start for OSU. Crazy, the difference in my mood the last 1/2 hour. :lmao:2 beers, 2 vicodin, 1 loser turned winner, and staked to a 14-0 lead, including a muffed punt after being stopped = HAPPIEST MAN ON PLANET! :goodposting:
 
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
MarshallPlan said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Might add it's been a bad day for me, exactly the opposite of yesterday. Another reason this game gave me pause...

ETA WAIT A MINUTE, the 2nd half over hit in that last game too? I gave up. WOOT!!! Not as bad as I thought today...
Click to expand...
Unbelievable bad beat for my 2h under. Illinois doesn't want to kneel on the ball?
Click to expand...
I'm still laughing at it; just looked up on gametracker to see some bootleg. I love it but yeah, sorry. And I also REALLY love this start for OSU. Crazy, the difference in my mood the last 1/2 hour. :lmao: 2 beers, 2 vicodin, 1 loser turned winner, and staked to a 14-0 lead, including a muffed punt after being stopped = HAPPIEST MAN ON PLANET!

:goodposting:
Click to expand...
Not gonna last, bro... no matter how good it looks early. Face it, you've been HUCKS'd.
 
John Bender said:
thanks lump. I did notice the movement from the opening line to the closing line and the tout being on the better end of it at least 90% of the time and that's what caused me a lot of concerns.Are there email notifications when the plays are released because bookmaker and sb's online apps are very fast an efficient and I can get the instant notification when an email is sent. I'm at poker tables 6 days a week and can use my phone now (used to not be able to at all) so I can put plays in as fast as my iphone will load the pages.ETA: I have a reliable local but he doesn't put out lines until an hour before tip off or game time so I'm stuck with whatever scores and odds is at, at that point
Click to expand...
I'm sure you're good with your phone....but you won't get his line using a phone, especially at bookmaker. The only way to get his released line is to be at the pc refreshing his picks page. You can get emails and texts but the delivery is slower than the picks page.It's like a full time job. His service has made me a bunch of money the last 2 years but i'm exhausted trying to keep up.If you want to get rolling and kind of test things out, sign up over at bettingtalk.com and subscribe to his 2nd half thread(everyone should do that) and you'll see how fast the lines move. I think it costs like $7 to sign up over there but it's worth it just for his 2nd half threads.
 
lumpy19 said:
John Bender said:
thanks lump. I did notice the movement from the opening line to the closing line and the tout being on the better end of it at least 90% of the time and that's what caused me a lot of concerns.

Are there email notifications when the plays are released because bookmaker and sb's online apps are very fast an efficient and I can get the instant notification when an email is sent. I'm at poker tables 6 days a week and can use my phone now (used to not be able to at all) so I can put plays in as fast as my iphone will load the pages.

ETA: I have a reliable local but he doesn't put out lines until an hour before tip off or game time so I'm stuck with whatever scores and odds is at, at that point
Click to expand...
I'm sure you're good with your phone....but you won't get his line using a phone, especially at bookmaker. The only way to get his released line is to be at the pc refreshing his picks page. You can get emails and texts but the delivery is slower than the picks page.It's like a full time job. His service has made me a bunch of money the last 2 years but i'm exhausted trying to keep up.

If you want to get rolling and kind of test things out, sign up over at bettingtalk.com and subscribe to his 2nd half thread(everyone should do that) and you'll see how fast the lines move. I think it costs like $7 to sign up over there but it's worth it just for his 2nd half threads.
Click to expand...
I'm all over it - thanks again Lump

 
TheGooRoo said:
John Bender said:
GR - before I hit Walmart tomorrow - is SB putting up CBB player props yet?
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Yes, and I'm not playing them much, see sig.
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So is it a time thing due to your new gig and you'll focus things there after CFB is over? Or are they not exploitable? CFB ends here shortly and I don't want to be stuck with just NHL/NBA (I live for Saturday college hoops during the winter and last year we went on quite the run).Email me if you don't want to answer here or hit me up on AIM.thanks.
 
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I remember the days in this thread before turd-bird showed up and we used to be able to circumvent the language filter without fear of being reported.

:confused:

 
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