What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (15 Viewers)

Garrett said:
Anyone ever chase steam by using a local who doesn't react as quickly to the line movement? I have heard mention of that before but never really tried it out in practice. I suppose it is less handicapping and more line shopping/timing.Testing it out today, locked in...Towson +19.5Oklahoma State +5.5St Josephs +4George Washington +13.5All 4 of those lines were still active at pinnacle until around 9:30 Eastern, but Pinnacle was adjusting from -105 to -110 and up to -119 on some of them. Local book doesn't keep up with those vig adjustments and just focuses on the point spreads. All 4 of them have recently started moving by at least a half point towards the favorites. Curious if anyone has had any success trying this in the past? Basically trying to get ahead of line movement with slower books so your bets are always getting an extra .5 or point more than the closing line. Seems like that slight advantage could add up over time.
Click to expand...
This is pretty much all I do. Steam on CBB usually comes in from 1030am to noon'ish. Watch the board for steam, play steam at slow books, win money. you will get lines that bounce back, part of the deal when you don't do your own handicapping.
 
lumpy19 said:
Garrett said:
Anyone ever chase steam by using a local who doesn't react as quickly to the line movement? I have heard mention of that before but never really tried it out in practice. I suppose it is less handicapping and more line shopping/timing.Testing it out today, locked in...Towson +19.5Oklahoma State +5.5St Josephs +4George Washington +13.5All 4 of those lines were still active at pinnacle until around 9:30 Eastern, but Pinnacle was adjusting from -105 to -110 and up to -119 on some of them. Local book doesn't keep up with those vig adjustments and just focuses on the point spreads. All 4 of them have recently started moving by at least a half point towards the favorites. Curious if anyone has had any success trying this in the past? Basically trying to get ahead of line movement with slower books so your bets are always getting an extra .5 or point more than the closing line. Seems like that slight advantage could add up over time.
Click to expand...
This is pretty much all I do. Steam on CBB usually comes in from 1030am to noon'ish. Watch the board for steam, play steam at slow books, win money. you will get lines that bounce back, part of the deal when you don't do your own handicapping.
Click to expand...
Good to hear that it has worked out. Do you ever use Pinnacle as a barometer since they are generally some of the first lines available (at least that I know of). They usually have lines out the night before, with little movement that first night, but with very easy to spot movement by 8am the following morning.
 
Garrett said:
Good to hear that it has worked out. Do you ever use Pinnacle as a barometer since they are generally some of the first lines available (at least that I know of). They usually have lines out the night before, with little movement that first night, but with very easy to spot movement by 8am the following morning.
Click to expand...
Use pinnacle and bookmaker, they set the lines that everybody else follows.
 
I am going to try to bet more props the day before or the day of the game. Seems like I was more successful on these last year and very easy to spot obvious plays. I did make 2 plays already though, 1 WA.

1q un 10 -125 - not WA. Not many SBs have gone over 10 1q pts. Only one in recent memory was Colts/Bears when Hester took the opening kick back.

One that is available at SB is Pack to get the ball 1st -105.

Pitt has deferred every game except their home game against pitiful Oakland. Their thought in that game was probably get off to a good start and end the game early.

Pack have received the ball 6 times and kicked it 3 times. The thing that does worry me is that they have deferred in 3 of their last 4.

This bet could go either way but I figure if Pitt wins the toss it's almost a certainty they defer. If Pack win it we get a 50/50 shot here.

 
Per Marc Lawrence, via Chad Millman:

Super Bowl underdogs of 3 or less and who have the better record are 15-3 SU and ATS

 
Huge game in Mountain West hoops tonight with BYU taking on SDSU. I was planning on taking BYU in this with the home court being the difference, but they are laying 5 (may get 5.5)?! That's too many, SDSU can win the game outright. They have some big athletic dudes on their team that should give BYU problems down low (where they aren't real deep). You know how BYU is always this solid, fundamental team that gets ousted in the NCAA tourney too early because they come up against more athletic clubs? That's what SDSU is.

Although I will say Jimmer is Reddick, but stronger. He hits shots from so far, it's annoying (or at least it was on Saturday). Watch this game for he and Kawhi Leonard alone, it will be worth it.

Aztecs are better. So the biggest issue is can they handle the stage in Provo tonight? I think so. Steve Fischer's certainly been there before...

 
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Huge game in Mountain West hoops tonight with BYU taking on SDSU. I was planning on taking BYU in this with the home court being the difference, but they are laying 5 (may get 5.5)?! That's too many, SDSU can win the game outright. They have some big athletic dudes on their team that should give BYU problems down low (where they aren't real deep). You know how BYU is always this solid, fundamental team that gets ousted in the NCAA tourney too early because they come up against more athletic clubs? That's what SDSU is.

Although I will say Jimmer is Reddick, but stronger. He hits shots from so far, it's annoying (or at least it was on Saturday). Watch this game for he and Kawhi Leonard alone, it will be worth it.

Aztecs are better. So the biggest issue is can they handle the stage in Provo tonight? I think so. Steve Fischer's certainly been there before...
Click to expand...
Jimmer impressed me in the espn segment I saw. Between the dark hallway drills his brother put him thru & playing hoops in a prison yard he seems like he'll end up more than just a great long range shooter.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Huge game in Mountain West hoops tonight with BYU taking on SDSU. I was planning on taking BYU in this with the home court being the difference, but they are laying 5 (may get 5.5)?! That's too many, SDSU can win the game outright. They have some big athletic dudes on their team that should give BYU problems down low (where they aren't real deep). You know how BYU is always this solid, fundamental team that gets ousted in the NCAA tourney too early because they come up against more athletic clubs? That's what SDSU is.

Although I will say Jimmer is Reddick, but stronger. He hits shots from so far, it's annoying (or at least it was on Saturday). Watch this game for he and Kawhi Leonard alone, it will be worth it.

Aztecs are better. So the biggest issue is can they handle the stage in Provo tonight? I think so. Steve Fischer's certainly been there before...
Click to expand...
Just bet SDSU +5.5 -110 at 5dimes, was hoping to see 6 but it looks like everything is settling at 5. very :goodposting: to watch this game
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I have another prop I like a good bit, but I am waiting for a lot of the major books to put it up before I post it. Chances are we won't move it, but if people want to get down I want people to be able to.

 
I should add. I have in my notes from last year that most of the player props came out on Thursday. So, expect most of the props to be coming out tomorrow. If anyone has any thoughts on particular players let's discuss today and evaluate the numbers when they come out tomorrow.

 
General game props I'll be looking to play (best line we may find):

yes team to score 3 unanswered times (-140)

no both teams will not make 33+yd fgs (-160)

under longest fg. Hoping for 44.5/45.5 but unlikely to get it. (-115)

1st pass complete from both qbs (-180 both)

no 2pt attempt (-260)

no onside kick (-180)

1st score td (-140)

last score td (-180)

1st FD a pass (-180)

longest score of game a td not fg (-150)

1st turnover an int (-130)

shortest td under 1.5 yds (even and better)

under 2.5 players to throw a pass (-260)

last turnover an int (-180)

no safety (-800)

no missed xps (-1500)

I may not play every one, but it's VERY unlikely I will be on the other side of one of these wagers. Many of these were bets I made the last 2 years and the same prices I played them at. Some we may get better prices then what I listed, some worse. Obviously, no safety/missed xps are bridgejumpers and not for everyone. I may or may not play them.

Generally betting "no" is a good option on pretty much everything.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
A set of numbers that may be set too high are the GB rushing numbers in particular Starks and maybe Kuhn (just rush). In every playoff game so far they have played with the lead. Starks has ran the ball a LOT. 23, 25, 22 carries. If Rodgers and GB get down even by a td in the 1h I think we may see them abandon the run fairly quickly and spread out Pitt - just like the NYJ did to get back in the game. Good chance Starks doesn't hit 20 carries and because he's not their best receiving back that Kuhn and Jackson may play more.

 
2u tulane +12

1u rest:

william & mary -3

so. miss -2

northeastern +4

northwestern +5

texas tech +10.5

pacific -6.5

georgia southern +16.5

122-96 56% +21.45u

 
"Nothing big today, no need to force it."

Only thing close to a 2 star tonight is U Patrick Marleau (Sharks) Total Points+Shots on Goal 4.5 -130

I'm going out on my own here, but I like Red Wings Under 32.5

 
MarshallPlan said:
A set of numbers that may be set too high are the GB rushing numbers in particular Starks and maybe Kuhn (just rush). In every playoff game so far they have played with the lead. Starks has ran the ball a LOT. 23, 25, 22 carries. If Rodgers and GB get down even by a td in the 1h I think we may see them abandon the run fairly quickly and spread out Pitt - just like the NYJ did to get back in the game. Good chance Starks doesn't hit 20 carries and because he's not their best receiving back that Kuhn and Jackson may play more.
Click to expand...
I think you are spot on. i don't see GB running the ball much.
 
lumpy19 said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Huge game in Mountain West hoops tonight with BYU taking on SDSU. I was planning on taking BYU in this with the home court being the difference, but they are laying 5 (may get 5.5)?! That's too many, SDSU can win the game outright. They have some big athletic dudes on their team that should give BYU problems down low (where they aren't real deep). You know how BYU is always this solid, fundamental team that gets ousted in the NCAA tourney too early because they come up against more athletic clubs? That's what SDSU is.

Although I will say Jimmer is Reddick, but stronger. He hits shots from so far, it's annoying (or at least it was on Saturday). Watch this game for he and Kawhi Leonard alone, it will be worth it.

Aztecs are better. So the biggest issue is can they handle the stage in Provo tonight? I think so. Steve Fischer's certainly been there before...
Click to expand...
Just bet SDSU +5.5 -110 at 5dimes, was hoping to see 6 but it looks like everything is settling at 5. very :) to watch this game
Click to expand...
:rolleyes: Yeah, my most anticipated game so far (besides CSU/BYU). Speaking of which, and this is worth mentioning going into tonight, Jimmer got a continuation call in that game, no joke. There is no such thing in college. :lmao: Not to mention, when CSU blew on him, they whistled it. BYU also got two possessions on two consecutive jump balls (tie-ups). :shock: Anyway, point being is that Mountain West Refs are affording JIMMER the Jordan Rules, which I hope doesn't hurt us tonight.

Also watch Emery, that aschole can shoot, and if Jimmer gets too much attention or Gay is really effective on him, he could hurt us. You'll know if this happens because he will let you know -- biggest PUNK I've seen play in awhile.

Just remembered another thing. CSU took out their starting guard and put a much quicker kid, who doesn't even play much, on Jimmer in the 2nd half. And it worked well. DJ Gay will be similar defensively, which is great for us.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The Ref said:
PatsFanCT said:
Quick hockey question for you followers. Does 5.7 average goals per game for nine games tonight seem high or low to you?tia
Click to expand...
High - and thats why most games the chalk is on the under.
Click to expand...
Great, thanks. I thought so, so I had to take the under on the Grand Salami.
 
One more MWC game for you guys, if interested. CSU comes off a tough, hard-fought loss to BYU, so tonight's game against Air Force has to be a let down. No love lost either, Air Force is two hours down the road, they would LOVE to upset CSU. I don't think they will but 9 1/2 is too many in tonight's spot. :rolleyes:

 
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
One more MWC game for you guys, if interested. CSU comes off a tough, hard-fought loss to BYU, so tonight's game against Air Force has to be a let down. No love lost either, Air Force is two hours down the road, they would LOVE to upset CSU. I don't think they will but 9 1/2 is too many in tonight's spot. :bag:
Click to expand...
Thank GOD CSU won this game, just finished. Easy cover and now my bet on SDSU just became a lot bigger, I parlayed them. I already had more than I've put on any college hoops this year on SDSU so this is GONNA BE FUN (I hope).Did get a bad line though, compared to most of you, I'm at 5. Along with some moneyline.####, they just said Leonard got the flu, great. :shock:
 
Taking a shot at this one (5dimes)

BJ Raji +20000 to score the first TD. Pack have 2 weeks to devise a gameplan, nothing like maybe giving Raji a carry at the goalline. Very, very unlikely but heck I'll gamble $25 to win 5k.

 
Before I forget, Djokivic is GREAT value tonight at +195. Hell, he's good value at +150. Federer should be favored in this match, sure, but not by much. The name is what's made the line too high. It's only a matter of time before the Joker beats him (which he's done already) to win a Granny. Love Federer, he's one of my favorite tennis players ever, but he's getting up there in tennis years. Meanwhile, Djokivic keeps getting closer. Good bet tonight, Novak, at 2 - 1.

 
The Ref said:
"Nothing big today, no need to force it."Only thing close to a 2 star tonight is U Patrick Marleau (Sharks) Total Points+Shots on Goal 4.5 -130I'm going out on my own here, but I like Red Wings Under 32.5
Click to expand...
Ended up taking the Avs over 5.5 and over 30.5 shots later onAvs had one shot in the first period....... And somehow they went over.
 
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Before I forget, Djokivic is GREAT value tonight at +195. Hell, he's good value at +150. Federer should be favored in this match, sure, but not by much. The name is what's made the line too high. It's only a matter of time before the Joker beats him (which he's done already) to win a Granny. Love Federer, he's one of my favorite tennis players ever, but he's getting up there in tennis years. Meanwhile, Djokivic keeps getting closer. Good bet tonight, Novak, at 2 - 1.
Click to expand...
Nice call SLBD.
 
Trying to chase steam again this morning, just locked in

Louisiana Tech +2

Jacksonville State +2.5

Loyola Marymount -3.5

Those are all -118 vig at Pinnacle (opened at -105), local offering -110 still.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Ministry of Pain
Texas floods
2
Replies
59
Views
3K
fatness
fatness
scorchy
Any banking guys that can offer solutions to a vexing issue?
Replies
31
Views
552
Mrs. Rannous
Mrs. Rannous
Skipdog77
Walking Style, what say you?
Replies
31
Views
290
FarFromHome
FarFromHome

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 10 (members: 0, guests: 10)
Back
Top