PatsFanCT
Footballguy
What's the debit card runaround? I just tried to get a withdrawal and they want a copy of my license and a utility bill. What should I be prepared for?
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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
They claimed they sent me a debit card instead of the check and wire transfer I requested. They said I selected it as my default payment option (when I hadn't changed I think since I opened my account there). It was eventually fixed, but took an extra three weeks.
lumpy19
Footballguy
It's not a big deal they put the money back in my acct already...at least i think they did because there's $2500 extra in there with no explanation. I get testy this time of year because of the mass exodus of money after the super bowl....makes me nervous when checks are bouncing. If a sportsbook is going to crash and burn now is the time.
-fish-
Footballguy
Just trying to learn here...isn't there a big difference in the puckline for NHL versus the run line in baseball or the lines in CBB, NBA or NFL based on the fact that the puckline is fixed at 1.5 and all the rest of the sports are set based on other factors relating to setting a reasonable line, and move with the betting?
lumpy19
Footballguy
There is absolutely zero difference between a +170 puckline, a +170 runline, a +170 prop, a +170 anythingETA: assuming the lines are somewhat efficient which they usually are in the major sports
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Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
ETA answer: No, they are all long shots.Also I was told this by a guy who bets $8k on regular season baseball games and has made a good living sports gambling. Definitions of a bet being "bad" are subjective, but I'll take the advice of that guy and move on with my opinion. I bet pucklines at times depending on the match-up and the associated variables but I don't consider it to be a good strategic daily bet. The average total for an NHL game last year was 5.73 and the home team averaged 3.03. If you want to ignore the facts and say I have no clue, fine.yikes....you have absolutely no clue what you're posting about, i'm not even going to debate this you're so far offJust made note of it before cause its terrible information to be posting.Yes, they are bad bets. The chance of hitting a puckline is much worse than almost any other hockey bet. If you have a +170 puckline, it's not at +170 because its in your favor. If it's at +110 it's a lot to pay for a game that is generally one or two goals and you'll be begging for an empty netter like in the Canucks game last night. Puckline returns are in the 20/30 percentile at best, so if you want to use the individual game line theory you are talking about seasoned hockey bettors. Not guys who post lines at FBG.you can't make a blanket statement like that, whether or not they're good bets depends completely on each line for each game.
ETA: do you think there's a difference between a +170 puckline and a +170 underdog in the NFL...or a +170 underdog in the NBA.....or in CBB?
-fish-
Footballguy
This is my question. The rest of the sports' lines move, which makes them efficient. Hockey is fixed at 1.5. How is a bet where the odds are the only thing that moves be the same as a bet where both the odds and the line move?Basically, this is the reason I haven't ever bet on hockey. I'm just trying to figure out whether it matters.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Well another variable moves. The 1.5 is fixed but the line associated with the 1.5 moves. Same with totals but totals can be set at 5 or 6 although most of them land on 5.5. The lines connected to that variable does move and you can always bet the ML with moves up and down also. Since last night quite a few of the moneylines moved and the vig has moved on a couple of the totals. Same theory really, the store sets the price and the price moves based on the market reaction. Too much money going to Toronto Moneyline, move from +120 to +100. Vancouver PL getting hammered, add some tax to move the bounce.
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Insoxicated
Tailing...thx!
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
The Nevada gaming control board released figures today for the Superbowl, showing a sportsbook win of $724,000 on $87.5 mil. in wagers, for a disappointing (for the books) hold percentage of 0.83%.
http://gaming.nv.gov/documents/pdf/pr_11superbowl.pdf
http://gaming.nv.gov/documents/pdf/pr_11superbowl.pdf
PatsFanCT
Footballguy
I've been on fire with CBB, so I'm due for a bad night. I took Cincinnati on the road at Depaul -10. Depaul really is that bad.
I also took a couple money lines. Boston College +320 and Tennessee +320. These are more of a hunch. Clemson just doesn't look all that impressive. Not that BC does either, but I think it's more of a coin flip game. Kentucky should be better than they are, and probably will be by tourney time, but every time I watch them, they always look beatable. I think Tennessee can keep it close and has a decent chance at the upset.
glta
I also took a couple money lines. Boston College +320 and Tennessee +320. These are more of a hunch. Clemson just doesn't look all that impressive. Not that BC does either, but I think it's more of a coin flip game. Kentucky should be better than they are, and probably will be by tourney time, but every time I watch them, they always look beatable. I think Tennessee can keep it close and has a decent chance at the upset.
glta
Easily gave away more in free drinks than their profits of $724k
I don't think you have any chance of being reinstated.Try one of their sister books, HollywoodSports, Betusa, Logan's, etc, they all use the same lines.
The Ref
Footballguy
Im not shut out... yet. Its my hockey prop pal. I passed this along.Any way to prevent geting locked out?
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Insoxicated
Don't rake them over the coals
The Ref
Footballguy
Didnt know if the board had any other tricks. I thought I remembered someone saying to mix in some side and totals along the way.
TheWick
Footballguy
I'm sure that will help also...tell him to follow some of the crap that gets posted in this thread and they will NEVER cut you off. Just kidding guys
optionmaven
Footballguy
In regards to Wichita State, they should cover that number. They beat the Salukis @ Southern ILL. by 10. Three salukis serving the 2nd game of three game suspensions. Wich is the best team in the MVC. Salukis having down yr by their standards. They are not as good as Illinois State and Wich just beat them by 17. No reason to think it wouldn't be more of the same.I need some input here, because I don't know if this is stupid or not. Since I'm the one who thought of it, I'll assume it is.Wichita State is favored by 16 at home against Southern Illinois. San Diego State is favored by 17½ at home against Utah.Both favorites are -2000 on the money line. Would it be dumb to lay $1000 to win $102.50 on a ML parlay with those two teams?Is there any data available on how often home favorites of 16+ lose outright?
nittanylion
Footballguy
Kentucky is in a great position to win this game, but 8.5 is a tough spread to pull the trigger on.
This is Tennessee Coach Bruce Pearl's 1st Game back on the bench after serving an 8-Game suspension...that could easily take some getting used to...
Star F Scotty Hopson sprained his ankle in practice on Feb 1, and missed the Auburn game on the 3rd ( a W) and the home loss to alabama on the 5th...he participated in the walk-through, but he's still tender, and working him in and out of the rotation, and his on-court effectiveness could easily be an issue...
...now the Vols are traveling to play their 3rd Game in 6 Days (3rd/Road, 5th/Home, 8th/Road)...
...Kentucky HAS been underperforming, and has lost 2 in a row, however both were road losses, both were by only 2 (@Ole Miss 69-71 and @#23 Florida, when Brandon Knight, who'd gone 4-4 from beyond the arc missed a buzzer-beating 3...), and Calipari really got on the Team - this Kentucky team is VERY unlikely to lose 3 in a row - even underperforming, they are barely losing games they could win..
Man, I want to pull the trigger on this. Well, I had a good Super Bowl, and I'm flush...ML -420, 2u. Money is money.
This is Tennessee Coach Bruce Pearl's 1st Game back on the bench after serving an 8-Game suspension...that could easily take some getting used to...
Star F Scotty Hopson sprained his ankle in practice on Feb 1, and missed the Auburn game on the 3rd ( a W) and the home loss to alabama on the 5th...he participated in the walk-through, but he's still tender, and working him in and out of the rotation, and his on-court effectiveness could easily be an issue...
...now the Vols are traveling to play their 3rd Game in 6 Days (3rd/Road, 5th/Home, 8th/Road)...
...Kentucky HAS been underperforming, and has lost 2 in a row, however both were road losses, both were by only 2 (@Ole Miss 69-71 and @#23 Florida, when Brandon Knight, who'd gone 4-4 from beyond the arc missed a buzzer-beating 3...), and Calipari really got on the Team - this Kentucky team is VERY unlikely to lose 3 in a row - even underperforming, they are barely losing games they could win..
Man, I want to pull the trigger on this. Well, I had a good Super Bowl, and I'm flush...ML -420, 2u. Money is money.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I didn't end up doing this, but I did get my answer. Yes, it's stupid.Wichita St. is losing 35-33 in the 2H. Not worth sweating for a 10% return on your money.I need some input here, because I don't know if this is stupid or not. Since I'm the one who thought of it, I'll assume it is.Wichita State is favored by 16 at home against Southern Illinois. San Diego State is favored by 17½ at home against Utah.Both favorites are -2000 on the money line. Would it be dumb to lay $1000 to win $102.50 on a ML parlay with those two teams?Is there any data available on how often home favorites of 16+ lose outright?
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Insoxicated
Do Shootout SOG count?
PatsFanCT
Footballguy
Well, that makes up for my bad basketball bets.Thanks Ref!Nevermind. Woot!
The Ref
Footballguy
Yeah sorry man, it's only looking like a 5/6 night.Nevermind. Woot!Did Moulson cover? 2 SOG + 1 Goal = 3 or 4 P+S? Do goals count as 2 points or is it actually "scoring" where it's worth 1 point?EDIT: I see Moulson lost.
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Insoxicated
Yeah sorry man, it's only looking like a 5/6 night.Nevermind. Woot!Did Moulson cover? 2 SOG + 1 Goal = 3 or 4 P+S? Do goals count as 2 points or is it actually "scoring" where it's worth 1 point?EDIT: I see Moulson lost.
Fantastic picks... thanks for sharing man. optionmaven
Footballguy
Sometimes the best plays are the ones we don't make. I wish I hadn't made mine.I didn't end up doing this, but I did get my answer. Yes, it's stupid.Wichita St. is losing 35-33 in the 2H. Not worth sweating for a 10% return on your money.I need some input here, because I don't know if this is stupid or not. Since I'm the one who thought of it, I'll assume it is.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Sometimes the best plays are the ones we don't make. I wish I hadn't made mine.I didn't end up doing this, but I did get my answer. Yes, it's stupid.Wichita St. is losing 35-33 in the 2H. Not worth sweating for a 10% return on your money.I need some input here, because I don't know if this is stupid or not. Since I'm the one who thought of it, I'll assume it is.Wichita State is favored by 16 at home against Southern Illinois. San Diego State is favored by 17½ at home against Utah.Both favorites are -2000 on the money line. Would it be dumb to lay $1000 to win $102.50 on a ML parlay with those two teams?Is there any data available on how often home favorites of 16+ lose outright?
modogg
Footballguy
Southern Illinois +16. I think this is a good spot for a letdown game from WSU. SIU will also start 3 guards which will actually help them keep pace with WSU.GLPre-bmj 5-2-1 +3.5uPost-bmj 6-2-1 +5.5u
should have tried the ML as well, but thanks
lumpy19
Footballguy
+170 is a longshot? the average total on a baseball game is 8.5, does that make a RL bet in baseball better than a PL hockey bet?ETA answer: No, they are all long shots.Also I was told this by a guy who bets $8k on regular season baseball games and has made a good living sports gambling. Definitions of a bet being "bad" are subjective, but I'll take the advice of that guy and move on with my opinion. I bet pucklines at times depending on the match-up and the associated variables but I don't consider it to be a good strategic daily bet. The average total for an NHL game last year was 5.73 and the home team averaged 3.03. If you want to ignore the facts and say I have no clue, fine.yikes....you have absolutely no clue what you're posting about, i'm not even going to debate this you're so far offJust made note of it before cause its terrible information to be posting.Yes, they are bad bets. The chance of hitting a puckline is much worse than almost any other hockey bet. If you have a +170 puckline, it's not at +170 because its in your favor. If it's at +110 it's a lot to pay for a game that is generally one or two goals and you'll be begging for an empty netter like in the Canucks game last night. Puckline returns are in the 20/30 percentile at best, so if you want to use the individual game line theory you are talking about seasoned hockey bettors. Not guys who post lines at FBG.
ETA: do you think there's a difference between a +170 puckline and a +170 underdog in the NFL...or a +170 underdog in the NBA.....or in CBB?
The vig is adjusted on puck lines, saying they are statistically bad bets is completely incorrect, they're exactly the same as any other bet with that vig. I can't believe no one else is stepping in here, this is one of the dumbest things I've seen posted about sports gambling.I'm glad you're buddy bets 8k a game on baseball, I don't bet that much so he's obviously smarter than me.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
You don't understand how to figure out the difference between 5.79 and 3.03 can you? Let me help you, it's 2.76. So in the regular season the average score of an NHL game is 3.03 to 2,76. What an arrogant ###. Ok, just to illuminate my point for everyone else since Lumpy can't register why I don't like pucklines.+170 is a longshot? the average total on a baseball game is 8.5, does that make a RL bet in baseball better than a PL hockey bet?
The vig is adjusted on puck lines, saying they are statistically bad bets is completely incorrect, they're exactly the same as any other bet with that vig. I can't believe no one else is stepping in here, this is one of the dumbest things I've seen posted about sports gambling.
I'm glad you're buddy bets 8k a game on baseball, I don't bet that much so he's obviously smarter than me.
Last year in the NHL playoffs there were 89 games. Of those the favorite won by two or more goals 30 times, that's 33.7% if you played them all. Now there were some huge upsets last year and people lost their asses on both Canadiens series wins, on NJ getting smoked and Boston choking away a 3-0 lead.
If the averages are around +170 to +180 the return if you bet all the puck lines is 51 to 54 units with 59 losses. Problem is what most people consider to be the best puck line bets are 1/8, 2/7, etc matchups and many of those came up pretty bad. I had heard last year that in 2009 puckline bets for the season and playoffs was about 25 percent. Considering there is a better likelihood for a empty net goal in the regular season then PL is probably a better regular season bet. Like I said, it's my opinion.
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Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
What's the reason for this? I'm not a big puckhead.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
I haven't been in this thread in ages. I don't think you guys are arguing different points here, there is some overlap.
What I know about gambling is that you should place the bet when you think the book has put out the wrong line and you believe you have an advantage.
Betting a puckline or runline as your standard bet every day is a losing proposition though and that's what DD is saying.
I tend to stay away from pucklines, runlines myself because it usually doesn't fit my strategy. I think people have different styles that they believe they are better at handicapping and non professionals may not have the time to examine every single line available in depth so they stick to their strengths.
The overall point that you shouldn't rule out any bet that you think is to your advantage is a good point though, whether it be ML, spread, PL, RL, over, under, etc., make the bet if you think it's a strong play, that should go without saying.
What I know about gambling is that you should place the bet when you think the book has put out the wrong line and you believe you have an advantage.
Betting a puckline or runline as your standard bet every day is a losing proposition though and that's what DD is saying.
I tend to stay away from pucklines, runlines myself because it usually doesn't fit my strategy. I think people have different styles that they believe they are better at handicapping and non professionals may not have the time to examine every single line available in depth so they stick to their strengths.
The overall point that you shouldn't rule out any bet that you think is to your advantage is a good point though, whether it be ML, spread, PL, RL, over, under, etc., make the bet if you think it's a strong play, that should go without saying.
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Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Situation. Teams are more concerned with clearing the puck and wasting time than they are in adding one with a neutral ice or offensive zone push. Also empty netters in the regular season are often reserved for guys with two goals in the game, guys who are having statistically elite seasons and because teams are less concerned with protecting their own end. They just want the game to end, usually there isn't a whole lot of effort to get an empty net goal, just get close without icing. In 2009 (not sure about last year) there were only ten empty net goals in the entire playoffs, we'll see that many in the NHL in the next week. For the record I agree with Lumpy that each puckline is particular and just like any bet, you evaluate the lines and make the best play based on what you know and what you think you know. I had no idea this was gonna blow up like this, it is just my opinion and I don't play them for all the reasons I have stated. I just come here to post hockey plays for Bender (
)and SLBD mostly and some college football pick trades. I never intended to muck up the thread, so apologies in advance. I'll leave now.
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-fish-
Footballguy
DD>waitI just won my first two hockey bets in over a decade. I even watched the third period of last night's game!Situation. Teams are more concerned with clearing the puck and wasting time than they are in adding one with a neutral ice or offensive zone push. Also empty netters in the regular season are often reserved for guys with two goals in the game, guys who are having statistically elite seasons and because teams are less concerned with protecting their own end. They just want the game to end, usually there isn't a whole lot of effort to get an empty net goal, just get close without icing. In 2009 (not sure about last year) there were only ten empty net goals in the entire playoffs, we'll see that many in the NHL in the next week. For the record I agree with Lumpy that each puckline is particular and just like any bet, you evaluate the lines and make the best play based on what you know and what you think you know. I had no idea this was gonna blow up like this, it is just my opinion and I don't play them for all the reasons I have stated. I just come here to post hockey plays for Bender ()and SLBD mostly and some college football pick trades. I never intended to muck up the thread, so apologies in advance. I'll leave now.
PatsFanCT
Footballguy
Well I couldn't have been more wrong about these. Hope nobody tailed. Thankfully I was bailed out by The Ref's Carolina props and a desperate money toss on SDSU. There's always tomorrow.
lumpy19
Footballguy
Where did those numbers come from? Taking averages and applying it to sports betting is a mistake. If all a person had to do to handicap a game was take averages vegas wouldn't exist and we'd all be rich, it's a bit more complicated than that.My argument is that you stated statistically PL are a bad bet....and now its your opinion. you can have whatever opinion you want but +170 PL is the same bet as a +170 dog in the NFL.You don't understand how to figure out the difference between 5.79 and 3.03 can you? Let me help you, it's 2.76. So in the regular season the average score of an NHL game is 3.03 to 2,76. What an arrogant ###. Ok, just to illuminate my point for everyone else since Lumpy can't register why I don't like pucklines.+170 is a longshot? the average total on a baseball game is 8.5, does that make a RL bet in baseball better than a PL hockey bet?
The vig is adjusted on puck lines, saying they are statistically bad bets is completely incorrect, they're exactly the same as any other bet with that vig. I can't believe no one else is stepping in here, this is one of the dumbest things I've seen posted about sports gambling.
I'm glad you're buddy bets 8k a game on baseball, I don't bet that much so he's obviously smarter than me.
Last year in the NHL playoffs there were 89 games. Of those the favorite won by two or more goals 30 times, that's 33.7% if you played them all. Now there were some huge upsets last year and people lost their asses on both Canadiens series wins, on NJ getting smoked and Boston choking away a 3-0 lead.
If the averages are around +170 to +180 the return if you bet all the puck lines is 51 to 54 units with 59 losses. Problem is what most people consider to be the best puck line bets are 1/8, 2/7, etc matchups and many of those came up pretty bad. I had heard last year that in 2009 puckline bets for the season and playoffs was about 25 percent. Considering there is a better likelihood for a empty net goal in the regular season then PL is probably a better regular season bet. Like I said, it's my opinion.
Using your total goals argument i'm betting the house on the +1.5 PL team in the regular season....must be a great bet all the time since the average score is 3.03-2.76
DD>waitI just won my first two hockey bets in over a decade. I even watched the third period of last night's game!Situation. Teams are more concerned with clearing the puck and wasting time than they are in adding one with a neutral ice or offensive zone push. Also empty netters in the regular season are often reserved for guys with two goals in the game, guys who are having statistically elite seasons and because teams are less concerned with protecting their own end. They just want the game to end, usually there isn't a whole lot of effort to get an empty net goal, just get close without icing. In 2009 (not sure about last year) there were only ten empty net goals in the entire playoffs, we'll see that many in the NHL in the next week. For the record I agree with Lumpy that each puckline is particular and just like any bet, you evaluate the lines and make the best play based on what you know and what you think you know. I had no idea this was gonna blow up like this, it is just my opinion and I don't play them for all the reasons I have stated. I just come here to post hockey plays for Bender (
Agree to disagree and knock it off lumpy.
Reginald Cornsilks
Footballguy
Has MP stuck to his word and retired? I might jump back in if so.
lumpy19
Footballguy
no problem....i'll let crappy information slide right by, good luck
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
faded my boilermakers last night. Karma is a #####. what a terrible beat at the end. Didn't lose huge money, but it sure felt like I did.
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Insoxicated
Gotta say BIG thanks to this thread.... have more than doubled my roll since saturday.
Big thanks to:
- All the great SB Props
- bmj and his hoops system
- Dr D and his hockey bets
- Ref and his hockey bets from his boy
Keep it up! Turned a betting buddy of mine onto this thread yesterday and he had a good day too. Nice run you guys are on...
ETA: Thanks to this thread and some nice 2nd half bets (including a parlay) on the SB I am 17-1 on my last 18 plays
Big thanks to:
- All the great SB Props
- bmj and his hoops system
- Dr D and his hockey bets
- Ref and his hockey bets from his boy
Keep it up! Turned a betting buddy of mine onto this thread yesterday and he had a good day too. Nice run you guys are on...
ETA: Thanks to this thread and some nice 2nd half bets (including a parlay) on the SB I am 17-1 on my last 18 plays
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