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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)

Bender=COPPER-PLATED AWESOMENESS

Light card today:

SMU/UTEP over 54.5

Michigan +3

Kansas +5

UGA/USC U52

May look for some copper tails also. glllllllll

 
'Raider Nation said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
Bender=COPPER-PLATED AWESOMENESS

Light card today:

SMU/UTEP over 54.5

Michigan +3

Kansas +5

UGA/USC U52

May look for some copper tails also. glllllllll
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Just a light :homer: play, Doc? Or some reasoning behind it? Because I like the Irish quite a bit.
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Last year I mostly made money betting against Michigan. Rees will have to make plays and get the ball to Floyd but I think the Irish have to run the ball to win this game, and I'm not sure they'll have a whole lot of success. Denard was kind of held back last week and I think that was by design. Michigan has too much speed on offense to the outside and I think they'll use tht to their advantage. One score game, I like Michigan to squeak it out 28-26.
 
Here's my whole CFB card....these bets were placed throughout the week so i'm sure lines moved

Stanford -20 -110

Toledo 20 -110

Cincinnati 7 -105

Texas -6.5 -108

FIU 4.5 -110

Northern Illinois -6.5 -110

UAB 21.5 -105

San Jose State 21.5 -110

UNLV 14 -110

Georgia Tech -10.5 -108

Central Michigan 13 -108

Michigan 4.5 -110

Houston/North Texas o 64 -110

Arizona/oklahoma st o 64.5 -110

Vanderbilt -1 -108

Tulsa -13 -110

North Carolina -9.5 -120

TCU/Air Force o 49 -110

Stanford 1H -12.5 -110

Memphis/Ark State o 55 -110

Missouri/AZ state u 52 -110

FIU/Louisville u 47.5 -110

Cincy/Tenn o 54.5 -110

BYU/Texas u 48 -110

SDST/Army o 54.5 -110

Nevada/Oregon o 63 -110

Alabama/PSU u 42 -110

South Miss/Marshall o 52 -110

UNLV/Wash st o 54.5 -110

Michigan/ND o 54.5 -110

Wisconsin 1H -12.5 -110

Boston College 7.5 -110

South Carolina -2.5 -115

Tulsa/Tulane o 64 -110

San Diego State -9.5 -110

Michigan State -32.5 -110

Toledo/Ohio State 1H o 27 -110

Wyoming -17 -120

 
'lumpy19 said:
Here's my whole CFB card....these bets were placed throughout the week so i'm sure lines movedStanford -20 -110Toledo 20 -110Cincinnati 7 -105Texas -6.5 -108FIU 4.5 -110Northern Illinois -6.5 -110UAB 21.5 -105San Jose State 21.5 -110UNLV 14 -110Georgia Tech -10.5 -108Central Michigan 13 -108Michigan 4.5 -110Houston/North Texas o 64 -110Arizona/oklahoma st o 64.5 -110Vanderbilt -1 -108Tulsa -13 -110North Carolina -9.5 -120TCU/Air Force o 49 -110Stanford 1H -12.5 -110Memphis/Ark State o 55 -110Missouri/AZ state u 52 -110FIU/Louisville u 47.5 -110Cincy/Tenn o 54.5 -110BYU/Texas u 48 -110SDST/Army o 54.5 -110Nevada/Oregon o 63 -110Alabama/PSU u 42 -110South Miss/Marshall o 52 -110UNLV/Wash st o 54.5 -110Michigan/ND o 54.5 -110Wisconsin 1H -12.5 -110Boston College 7.5 -110South Carolina -2.5 -115Tulsa/Tulane o 64 -110San Diego State -9.5 -110Michigan State -32.5 -110Toledo/Ohio State 1H o 27 -110Wyoming -17 -120
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Are any of these Titanium, Magnesium or Phosphorus 8* plays? Otherwise, I'm not interested.
 
Detroit Lions +1½ -110

Atlanta Falcons -3 +100

Cleveland Browns -6½ -110

Oakland Raiders +3 -105

4 team parlay. 30 to win 323.

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Ov 41 -115

Buffalo Bills +5½ -110

Cleveland Browns -6½ -110

Arizona Cardinals -7 +100

San Francisco 49ers -5½ -110

5 team parlay. 20 to win 410.

These are both cubic zirconium releases on my hotline. :bowtie:

 
will be interesting to see where the Auburn/MSU 2nd half line comes out. Clearly there were tons of MSU backers based on Auburn showing up flat last week. But obviously that was an a one off, as they've played a good MSU team very well here.

I'll be on the Auburn ML if they come out dogs in 2h

 
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'Tiger Fan said:
will be interesting to see where the Auburn/MSU 2nd half line comes out. Clearly there were tons of MSU backers based on Auburn showing up flat last week. But obviously that was an a one off, as they've played a good MSU team very well here.I'll be on the Auburn ML if they come out dogs in 2h
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I'm going to tail if ya don't mind :thumbup:EDIT: AUB +4 .... tasty
 
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'optionmaven said:
Here's my whole CFB card....these bets were placed throughout the week so i'm sure lines movedTulsa -13 -110Tulsa/Tulane o 64 -110My Gold(E)Locks and the Three Bears Parlay of the day. :banned: I will release my baby, mama, and Papa bear picks later.
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This is boneriffic.
 
'[icon] said:
'Tiger Fan said:
will be interesting to see where the Auburn/MSU 2nd half line comes out. Clearly there were tons of MSU backers based on Auburn showing up flat last week. But obviously that was an a one off, as they've played a good MSU team very well here.I'll be on the Auburn ML if they come out dogs in 2h
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I'm going to tail if ya don't mind :thumbup:EDIT: AUB +4 .... tasty
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:hifive:on ML bet at sportsbook, but AU is +4. I'm on that
 
Good luck to everyone today...

If someone wants something other than CFB to keep an eye on...

The older folks here know I rarely miss a point of major tennis matches and with that:

Rafa Nadal -250 over Murray is a beautiful value.

Nadal is 12-4 vs. Murray lifetime and Murray has not been his best in the US Open, nor is hard court his best surface.

I was expecting this to be -450 to be honest...

If the odds are too much, I'm confident in Nadal -200 to win the 2ND set

Just 2-0 in the US Open so I haven't found much worth the time, but when I do, I am usually right.

 
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Saw this line on a local's website and thought it was interesting...anyone have an MP take on this?

OVER/UNDER MOST RECEPTIONS ANY

PLAYER 9/11/2011 ONLY !!!

Sep 11 99621 MOST RECEPTIONS ANY PLYR 09\11 o11½-125

1:00 PM 99622 MOST RECEPTIONS ANY PLYR 09\11 u11½-105

How many weeks last year did 12 or more receptions for 1 players happen?

ETA - wow that game log dominator tool is pretty awesome...this actually happened 9 weeks last year and two guys did it week 1 last year.

Interesting...seems like a pretty solid bet to me on the UNDER

 
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'TheWick said:
Saw this line on a local's website and thought it was interesting...anyone have an MP take on this?OVER/UNDER MOST RECEPTIONS ANYPLAYER 9/11/2011 ONLY !!! Sep 11 99621 MOST RECEPTIONS ANY PLYR 09\11 o11½-125 1:00 PM 99622 MOST RECEPTIONS ANY PLYR 09\11 u11½-105 How many weeks last year did 12 or more receptions for 1 players happen?
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I'd take the under. Here are the only players I'd say would be the likely suspects to challenge 12 receptions this week:Roddy WhiteSantana MossHakeem NicksI would have added Brandon Lloyd had it not been a MNF game.
 
Complete Week 1 Prop Card (some posted earlier in thread also)

Thursday Night Game

Drew Brees U26 completions -110 LOSS

Ryan Grant NO TD -125 WIN

Jermichael Finley 1st Rec O8.5 yards -115 WIN

James Jones U3 receptions -115 WIN

Devery Henderson Longest Rec U20.5 yards LOSS

Sproles U 35.5 yards rushing WIN (sportsbetting)

Graham O29.5 yards receiving WIN (sportsbetting)

Sunday

Ray Rice O82.5 yards rushing+receiving

Berrian O8.5 yards on first reception

Wells O3.5 yards on 1st carry

Jaguars O17.5 completions

Chris Johnson U108.5 rushing yards

Owen Daniels O3.5 recptions

Romo O21.5 completions

Olsen O23.5 rec yards (sportsbetting)

Andre Roberts O1.5 receptions (sportsbetting)

J Stew U 52.5 rushing (sportsbetting)

Wells +31.5 rushing yards vs. DeAngelo (sportsbetting)

Colt McCoy O17.5 completions (sportsbetting)

Garcon U4.5 receptions (sportsbetting)

Harry Douglas O2 receptions (sportsbetting)

Stafford O18.5 receptions (2 unit) (sportsbetting)

No Player with O11.5 receptions

Tashard Choice U24.5 rushing yards (sportsbetting)

ETA - Miles Austin U4.5 rec

Monday

Hernandez O8.5 yards on 1st reception

Branch U4 receptions

Ochocinco U4 receptions

Brady O21.5 receptions

 
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'Raider Nation said:
'TheWick said:
Saw this line on a local's website and thought it was interesting...anyone have an MP take on this?OVER/UNDER MOST RECEPTIONS ANYPLAYER 9/11/2011 ONLY !!! Sep 11 99621 MOST RECEPTIONS ANY PLYR 09\11 o11½-125 1:00 PM 99622 MOST RECEPTIONS ANY PLYR 09\11 u11½-105 How many weeks last year did 12 or more receptions for 1 players happen?
Click to expand...
I'd take the under. Here are the only players I'd say would be the likely suspects to challenge 12 receptions this week:Roddy WhiteSantana MossHakeem NicksI would have added Brandon Lloyd had it not been a MNF game.
Click to expand...
I agree...just don't see Roddy doing it with Julio and Harry Douglas there this year. We'll see. I put a unit on it.
 
'TheWick said:
'Raider Nation said:
'TheWick said:
Saw this line on a local's website and thought it was interesting...anyone have an MP take on this?OVER/UNDER MOST RECEPTIONS ANYPLAYER 9/11/2011 ONLY !!! Sep 11 99621 MOST RECEPTIONS ANY PLYR 09\11 o11½-125 1:00 PM 99622 MOST RECEPTIONS ANY PLYR 09\11 u11½-105 How many weeks last year did 12 or more receptions for 1 players happen?
Click to expand...
I'd take the under. Here are the only players I'd say would be the likely suspects to challenge 12 receptions this week:Roddy WhiteSantana MossHakeem NicksI would have added Brandon Lloyd had it not been a MNF game.
Click to expand...
I agree...just don't see Roddy doing it with Julio and Harry Douglas there this year. We'll see. I put a unit on it.
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From what I saw in preseason, Julio won't eat into Roddy's numbers too much. He was still very much the focal point.
 
'John Bender said:
COPPER PICK Taking the +9.5 at home for Army, parlay with UNDER 53.5 :banned:
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STAMP IT

Miss St almost - possibly backdooring my perfect early game selections. It's about to get REALLY real up in here if they blow this.

 
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'Raider Nation said:
'TheWick said:
Saw this line on a local's website and thought it was interesting...anyone have an MP take on this?OVER/UNDER MOST RECEPTIONS ANYPLAYER 9/11/2011 ONLY !!! Sep 11 99621 MOST RECEPTIONS ANY PLYR 09\11 o11½-125 1:00 PM 99622 MOST RECEPTIONS ANY PLYR 09\11 u11½-105 How many weeks last year did 12 or more receptions for 1 players happen?
Click to expand...
I'd take the under. Here are the only players I'd say would be the likely suspects to challenge 12 receptions this week:Roddy WhiteSantana MossHakeem NicksI would have added Brandon Lloyd had it not been a MNF game.
Click to expand...
Brandon Marshall has a chance here as well. He's too big for any Pats DB, and He'll probably be a safety net for Henne all night.
 
'PatsFanCT said:
'Raider Nation said:
'TheWick said:
Saw this line on a local's website and thought it was interesting...anyone have an MP take on this?OVER/UNDER MOST RECEPTIONS ANYPLAYER 9/11/2011 ONLY !!! Sep 11 99621 MOST RECEPTIONS ANY PLYR 09\11 o11½-125 1:00 PM 99622 MOST RECEPTIONS ANY PLYR 09\11 u11½-105 How many weeks last year did 12 or more receptions for 1 players happen?
Click to expand...
I'd take the under. Here are the only players I'd say would be the likely suspects to challenge 12 receptions this week:Roddy WhiteSantana MossHakeem NicksI would have added Brandon Lloyd had it not been a MNF game.
Click to expand...
Brandon Marshall has a chance here as well. He's too big for any Pats DB, and He'll probably be a safety net for Henne all night.
Click to expand...
Monday Night game, yo.
 
I'm very tempted to play NWSU +49.5 vs. LSU. LSU plays MSU on Thursday night, so the starters will not be playing long at all. Lots of running the ball here. Miles has only had a MOV over 49 twice in his 6 years at LSU.

 
Why are so many people high on ND tonight? Haven't they been the perennial underachievers for the better part of the past 20 years? Michigan may not be all that, but they are playing at the Big House in the first ever night game. The fans gotta have some kind of effect, no?

I'm going to take Michigan on the M/L.

 
The VA Tech ECU Total in the second half is going to be worth taking a look at. Va Tech threw in the towel on the passing game and has run the ball 10 times in a row. Clock should move in the second half.

 
'Raider Nation said:
'PatsFanCT said:
'Raider Nation said:
'TheWick said:
Saw this line on a local's website and thought it was interesting...anyone have an MP take on this?OVER/UNDER MOST RECEPTIONS ANYPLAYER 9/11/2011 ONLY !!! Sep 11 99621 MOST RECEPTIONS ANY PLYR 09\11 o11½-125 1:00 PM 99622 MOST RECEPTIONS ANY PLYR 09\11 u11½-105 How many weeks last year did 12 or more receptions for 1 players happen?
Click to expand...
I'd take the under. Here are the only players I'd say would be the likely suspects to challenge 12 receptions this week:Roddy WhiteSantana MossHakeem NicksI would have added Brandon Lloyd had it not been a MNF game.
Click to expand...
Brandon Marshall has a chance here as well. He's too big for any Pats DB, and He'll probably be a safety net for Henne all night.
Click to expand...
Monday Night game, yo.
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Oops, missed that.In that case, how about Amendola? With Asomugha and Rodgers-Cromartie, the slot might be the only place Bradford can make a completion.
 
'The Ref said:
The VA Tech ECU Total in the second half is going to be worth taking a look at. Va Tech threw in the towel on the passing game and has run the ball 10 times in a row. Clock should move in the second half.
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Ahhh eff. Came out at 30 and my pc froze so I got in at 29.5. at 30 it woul have been my zinc play of the day, at 29.5 it is still a brass play.
 
in for VT 2hu and Michigan ML

only loss of the day so far is 1h stanford -12.5

Freaking luck throws a pick 6 with 2 minutes to go as Stanford was driving

 
SHARPS REPORT - WEEK 1

Sportsbooks put up Week One lines in the NFL in the summer to encourage betting action during a relatively dead time on the calendar. So, there’s been A LOT of time for sharps (professional wagerers) to express their sentiment about this weekend's games!

To help you see how much expectations have changed through the summer, today I’m going to post what the lines were back in late June when they first went up (at low limits, by the way). Below that I’ll post the current number as we go to press. Now, not all of these moves are the result of betting action. Oddsmakers made a big move when Peyton Manning was ruled out for Indianapolis for example and Arizona moved when they acquired Kevin Kolb and immediately upgraded their quarterback position.

I would say most of the moves do express sharp sentiment. Like always, they got the best of the number early on when plenty of value was available. They’re no longer betting their preferred teams at the numbers you see right now.

I’ll take the games in rotation order…

PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE

Late June: Baltimore by 3, total of 37

Currently: Baltimore by 1, total of 36

Sharps were impressed with Pittsburgh in their Preseason win over Philadelphia and Michael Vick. Not much has changed since last year’s Super Bowl campaign. I’m definitely getting a sense from sharps I’m talking to that there’s a lot of respect for Pittsburgh this season, but fading respect for Baltimore. The Ravens taste has gone sour.

DETROIT AT TAMPA BAY

Late June: Tampa Bay by 3, total of 40

Currently: Tampa Bay by 1, total of 41

Same exact line move here on the team side. A home favorite of a field goal was seen as overpriced, and money on the defensive road dog dropped the line down to one. Detroit is a popular darkhorse team this year in the media and with sharps.

ATLANTA AT CHICAGO

Late June: Pick-em, total of 41

Currently: Atlanta by 2.5, total of 40

Chicago’s another playoff team, like Baltimore, that sharps aren’t as excited about this year, as you might expect. They (and a lot of other folks) are not impressed with Lovie Smith. Atlanta’s been bet up to -2.5. Note, though, that the line didn’t go all the way up to a field goal. I think a lot of sharps (and even the public) would hit the Bears if they saw +3 or better. This is a game where Atlanta money hit early, while smart Chicago money is waiting to see if they can hit that key number of three.

BUFFALO AT KANSAS CITY

Late June: Kansas City by 7, total of 42

Currently: Kansas City by 6, total of 40

Sharps aren’t fond of either of these teams based on what they’ve been telling me. Some sentiment on the dog just because the Chiefs aren’t seen as deserving of this kind of chalk. Plus, Matt Cassell is banged up at quarterback for the Chiefs. More support for the under than either team side.

INDIANAPOLIS AT HOUSTON

Late June: Pick-em, total of 47

Currently: Houston by 9, total of 43.5

This monster move was mostly caused by Manning’s injury situation of course. But, I should note that sharps liked Houston at pick-em, -1, and -2 back before it was clear how serious the injury was. Once Manning was ruled out, we saw a jump of about a touchdown. It’s rare to see THAT big a move in the NFL because no one player is normally worth that much. Indy’s backup quarterback situation was so dicey that there really was that big a difference (according to the market) between Manning and either Kerry Collins or Curtis Painter. Note the big totals move too.

PHILADELPHIA AT ST. LOUIS

Late June: Philadelphia by 4, total of 45

Currently: Philadelphia by 4.5, total of 44

Sharps like both of these defenses, and were made believers in Michael Vick last season, at least in terms of normal regular season action (they still don’t trust him vs. elite teams). The line is in a quiet zone between the critical numbers of 3 and 7. I don’t expect it to move much this weekend. Sharps think the number is just about right.

CINCINNATI AT CLEVELAND

Late June: Cleveland by 3, total of 38

Currently: Cleveland by 6.5, total of 35.5

The confirmation that rookie Andy Dalton was going to be the Cincinnati quarterback knocked the line from one critical number almost all the way to another. The total has come down too. That’s a very low number when the weather’s supposed to be nice in early September. Sharps are optimistic about the Browns getting better this year. They’re probably more optimistic though about the Bengals getting worse.

TENNESSEE AT JACKSONVILLE

Late June: Jacksonville by 2.5, total of 41

Currently: Jacksonville by 1, total of 37

The transaction that saw Jacksonville cutting David Garrard brought this line down. But, we’re down in an area where few games actually land. So, there wasn’t a lot of passion behind the move. We may see the line go all the way down to pick-em this weekend. Another big under play as both teams will be starting new quarterbacks.

NY GIANTS AT WASHINGTON

Late June: NY Giants by 3, total of 39

Currently: NY Giants by 3, total of 37.5

I’m really not hearing much about either team, despite Washington looking decent and the Giants looking lackluster in preseason Sharps didn’t have a preference between Rex Grossman and John Beck at the quarterback position for Washington. Many figured Grossman would get the nod anyway. Total dropped a bit based on Eli looking rusty and Washington's defense looking impressive.

CAROLINA AT ARIZONA

Late June: Arizona by 3, total of 38

Currently: Arizona by 7, total of 37.5

Sharps are generally high on Kolb, and generally down on rookie quarterbacks like Cam Newton of Carolina. But, we haven’t seen this line move past the key number of seven. So, there is a limit to how much excitement Kolb brings to the table, at least until they see how it all comes together in the desert.

SEATTLE AT SAN FRANCISCO

Late June: San Francisco by 5.5, total of 41

Currently: San Francisco by 5.5, total of 37

Big interest on the under here, but not on either team side. Both starting quarterbacks had horrible exhibition slates. Sharps will be looking to fade both teams on opening lines down the road if neither impresses here.

MINNESOTA AT SAN DIEGO

Late June: San Diego by 9.5, total of 42

Currently: San Diego by 9, total of 41.5

Not much betting interest here. Sharps do have respect for San Diego as a league power, but the lines are always very high at home because squares (the public) love betting the Chargers as home favorites. We might see sharps get involved on the dog at +10 or better. Note that sharps didn’t drive the favorite up to -10. They don't generally like laying this much wood, particularly on the opening weekend.

DALLAS AT N.Y. JETS

Late June: NY Jets by 4, total of 41

Currently: NY Jets by 5, total of 40.5

A relatively quiet game, because 4 and 5 aren’t key numbers. It is interesting that the line moved against America’s Team. Will squares bet a New York home favorite or a popular dog in the Sunday Night game? Vegas books expect a ton of action here. And they feel safe with any position at numbers like this.

NEW ENGLAND AT MIAMI

Late June: New England by 4, total of 46

Currently: New England by 7, total of 45.5

Sharps have learned in recent years that you have to respect the Pats when Tom Brady is healthy. Some new acquisitions may have made this team even better than they were late last year. Sharps got in before the public did. Now, if YOU want to bet New England, you have to lay a full TD. Sharps as always, got the better number earlier. If the public does well Sunday, they may come in hard on New England and take this line over the TD. Some sharps would then buy back Miami and shoot for a middle, hoping the game lands on the key number 7. Most like their early N.E. position.

OAKLAND AT DENVER

Late June: Denver by 1, total of 42

Currently: Denver by 3, total of 40

Oakland looked like a potential train wreck most of the summer. Kyle Orton of Denver may not be a true star, but he knows how to move the ball and beat train wrecks. John Fox also has sharp respect as the new Denver coach. I know a few sharps who hit Denver as hard as they could up to a field goal. They didn’t drive the line beyond that though.

 
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