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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (11 Viewers)

'Raider Nation said:
'cosjobs said:
YESand gd the book for no compact rrs. I'd have also done 4s and 5 if it wasnt such a pita
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GJ cos! You deserve to win every now and again. :P
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It been massive swings for me lately. This one took me from minus 4 figures to minus low 3 figures.Tomorrow I have strong leans on Tulsa, Iowa St and Miss St.I have them in all sorts of rrs, manu of them connecting to tulsa over, vandy on sat and the jets on sun
 
para mi agmigo cosjobs una cosjbos late night especial!!!!

Jan 01 NFL [312] NY GIANTS -2½-120 (B+½)

Jan 01 NFL [324] MIAMI -135

Jan 01 NFL [330] TOTAL u38½-140 (B+1½) (KANSAS CITY vrs DENVER)

Dec 30 CFB [229] TULSA -120

Dec 30 CFB [235] IOWA +14½-130 (B+1)

Jan 02 CFB [249] MICHIGAN STATE +3½-110

Jan 02 CFB [255] WISCONSIN +5½-110

Jan 02 CFB [258] OKLAHOMA STATE -3½-110

Risking 100 USD To Win 10389 USD

 
Last night sucked holding a small Notre Dame and Wash tickets. Both 2nd halts were punches in the nuts.

Someone pick a winner today.

Lumpy - give me a strong winning play today and I will take you and your wife to see CATS.

Thanks in advance

 
I have the over in the first 3 football games today(rollin RN style).....and I'll take Iowa in the nightcap if i can find 14

 
Unbelievable Baylor back door...that stung a bit.

Thankfully, there are plenty of opportunities remaining:

Going small with Mississippi St. -6.5, just to have some action on the game.

Going medium on Tulsa -1 and Iowa St. pck'm.

Going HEAVY on Iowa - 14 (I grew impatient and bought .5 for -120, I'm going to be in and out all day)

I want to clarify my view of the Iowa RB situation, for anyone who's interested. I may be herding cats here, but this is the a big part of what's behind me making this a big, big play.

Marcus Coker is Iowa's 1st-string RB (281/1384/15 + 21/157/0). A very respectable season, if you just look at the statistics in a vacuum. Two things inside the #'s : his 4.9 yards-per-carry average isn't special in comparison to other RB's who got the lions share of carries for their teams. Also, the combined average yards per carry given up by the opponents he faced was only 4.9 as well - meaning that Coker performed at a very average level given the quality of the defenses he faced. Yes, he put up a gaudy statistical season, but a truly special back, a difference maker, would have had a ypc average higher than the average ypr given up by his opponents. That's a very solid statistical key on which to 'true up' stats vs situations, which is a pretty valid predictor of impact and future performance.

Second, Iowa, especially under Ferentz, traditionally recruits and signs very solid RB's, carries a nice stable, and works to develop a succession plan at the position to offset injury/suspensions, early outs and graduations. Although relatively untested, its very reasonable to assume, given their history, that Coker's backups are solid enough to approximate Coker's production (which, when evaluated in relation to the rushing defenses he faced, was pretty much the definition of average) when given the opportunity.

So that's why I think Coker's absence, due to suspension, is over-rated in terms of it's impact on the game.

Finally, my take on the Oklahoma WR: Broyles, imo, is an NFL-caliber talent. His being out is an impact. I like Kenny Stills, he's solid enough, but I personally don't see him as a true #1 WR capable of being a consistent go-to guy without quality talent around him. That's where Jaz Reynolds absence makes a difference, IMO. He's no Broyles. He's not as complete as Stills. However, I think he's the most dynamic Sooners WR, in terms of big-play ability, and his absence takes away a threat that defenses have to game plan around. Without Broyles and Reynolds, it becomes much simpler to defend Oklahoma.

I think Oklahoma is already in a bad place playing in this minor Bowl to begin with. I think they are going to get frustrated on offense and throw in the towel.

I think the Hawkeyes get us the U-Dub money back tonight.

Good Luck!!!

 
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Top o' the morning to my wagering thread GBs! Seems like we were just here ten minutes ago.

Fresh pot of java on the brew... who is ready to :clyde: our bookies again!

 
'nittanylion said:
Finally, my take on the Oklahoma WR: Broyles, imo, is an NFL-caliber talent. His being out is an impact.
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Understatement. Landry looks like a completely different QB since he got hurt. I think most people pegged the wrong guy as the key to the Sooners offense. I still don't know what to do with this game. Oklahoma is clearly more talented up and down the roster, but do they even want to be in the Insight Bowl?
 
Generally I bet with Tulsa but I'm just don't think they are offensively good enough to overcome their own pass defense and BYU's defense. BYU can score and I don't see any reason why they won't. Defensively BYU is much better team and will stop Tulsa enough times to win this one. I like BYU +2.5 (1u) and O59.5 (1.5u).

 
After sitting through my wife's friends wedding reception and missing 90% of the Baylor game last night, ready to jump back in.

Tulsa -1 (2 units)

Iowa St. +1

Iowa +14

Miss. St. -7

tailing on the overs in the Tulsa/BYU

1/2 unit each on over 60 and over 30 for the first half. Good luck gentlemen.

 
'The Ref said:
'Raider Nation said:
'The Ref said:
OK men. Weekend is alomst here. No NFL tonight but two Bowl games.

Fla St 3.5 ND 46.5

Baylor 9.5 Wazzu 79!

I kind of like Fla St in the early game, not sure what to make out of the total.

Not sure I like baylor or the over enough for more then 1 unit, but I sure as hell aint going to bet Wazzu or Under in this game.
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Rollin' with the over in the late game. 79 seems like a boatload of points until you see the 38-21 halftime score.
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Might be low.
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Just realized it was 35-24 at halftime. Same exact amount of points. :tinfoilhat:

We won't see another beautiful game like that anytime soon. :kicksrock:

 
Did you guys see the G.J. Kinne story on E60? Crazy stuff.

When he got to high school, his dad was the varsity football coach. He started his son at QB as a freshman, and there was a lot of resentment from the older kids. They thought the dad was playing favorites, obviously. There was also resentment from the father of the senior who was expected to be the starting QB that year.

So he did what any disgruntled football dad would do... he walked into Coach Kinne's office and shot him.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqIMD9cVes8

It's a miracle that his father survived. The doctors initially had very little hope.

 
'Raider Nation said:
Did you guys see the G.J. Kinne story on E60? Crazy stuff.

When he got to high school, his dad was the varsity football coach. He started his son at QB as a freshman, and there was a lot of resentment from the older kids. They thought the dad was playing favorites, obviously. There was also resentment from the father of the senior who was expected to be the starting QB that year.

So he did what any disgruntled football dad would do... he walked into Coach Kinne's office and shot him.

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=xqIMD9cVes8

It's a miracle that his father survived. The doctors initially had very little hope.
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:jawdrop:
 
They had regular pee-wee flag football practice at the park where I take my two year old. It's already SERIOUS BUSINESS for the dads. And this is Northern California, mind you. I can't imagine how dickish parents get in Texas/SEC country.

 
'Raider Nation said:
Awesome... both of these teams are the '85 Bears all of a sudden. :thumbup:
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This BYU punter is killing us. Both teams are getting a lot of pressure on the QB so I'd like to see Tulsa start to run the ball a little more. Tulsa's pass D is usually Swiss cheese.There we go, Tulsa moving now as I typed this.
 
Every time I bet against BYU down the stretch, this QB took them UP AND DOWN THE FIELD as if there was no defense.

Except today, of course, when I have my balls on the over. :coffee:

 
'The Ref said:
What the hell is the problem with you people? Don't you have jobs?
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I have been off work for over a week now and I am ready to go back...still have another week left.I love my kids to death, but they get on my nerves pretty damn easily. I am not cut out for being the caretaker, just the provider.
 
'nittanylion said:
Marcus Coker is Iowa's 1st-string RB (281/1384/15 + 21/157/0). A very respectable season, if you just look at the statistics in a vacuum. Two things inside the #'s : his 4.9 yards-per-carry average isn't special in comparison to other RB's who got the lions share of carries for their teams. Also, the combined average yards per carry given up by the opponents he faced was only 4.9 as well - meaning that Coker performed at a very average level given the quality of the defenses he faced. Yes, he put up a gaudy statistical season, but a truly special back, a difference maker, would have had a ypc average higher than the average ypr given up by his opponents. That's a very solid statistical key on which to 'true up' stats vs situations, which is a pretty valid predictor of impact and future performance.Second, Iowa, especially under Ferentz, traditionally recruits and signs very solid RB's, carries a nice stable, and works to develop a succession plan at the position to offset injury/suspensions, early outs and graduations. Although relatively untested, its very reasonable to assume, given their history, that Coker's backups are solid enough to approximate Coker's production (which, when evaluated in relation to the rushing defenses he faced, was pretty much the definition of average) when given the opportunity.So that's why I think Coker's absence, due to suspension, is over-rated in terms of it's impact on the game.
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Dunno, Coker was an absolute horse throughout the season and there are some pretty impressive games in here. Iowa's #2 and #3 RBs had 29 combined carries all year and 17 of them came in the opener vs Tennessee Tech. That tells me that neither was ready to play because in college football, you play every RB who is talented and ready for the chance.
Code: 
2011 Game Log	Rushing	ReceivingDATE	OPP	RESULT  	ATT 	YDS 	AVG 	LNG 	TD 	REC 	YDS 	AVG 	LNG 	TD9/3	Tennessee Tech	W 34-7 	11 	41 	3.7 	8 	0 	2 	19 	9.5 	13 	09/10	@Iowa State	L 44-41 35 	140 	4.0 	18 	2 	2 	4 	2.0 	4 	09/17	Pittsburgh	W 31-27 23 	86 	3.7 	14 	0 	5 	15 	3.0 	9 	09/24	Louisiana-MonroeW 45-17 18 	113 	6.3 	26 	2 	2 	18 	9.0 	16 	010/8	@Penn State	L 13-3 	18 	74 	4.1 	16 	0 	3 	23 	7.7 	13 	010/15	Northwestern	W 41-31 22 	124 	5.6 	25 	2 	1 	15 	15.0 	15 	010/22	Indiana	W 45-24 	23 	139 	6.0 	41 	2 	0 	0 	0.0 	0 	010/29	@Minnesota	L 22-21 32 	252 	7.9 	50 	2 	0 	0 	0.0 	0 	011/5	Michigan	W 24-16 29 	132 	4.6 	27 	2 	0 	0 	0.0 	0 	011/12	Michigan State	L 37-21 21 	57 	2.7 	11 	1 	3 	24 	8.0 	13 	011/19	@Purdue	W 31-21 	31 	139 	4.5 	14 	1 	0 	0 	0.0 	0 	011/25	@Nebraska	L 20-7 	18 	87 	4.8 	15 	1 	3 	39 	13.0 	19 	0
Jaz Reynolds will be missed on the OU side but I will again say that it isn't a huge loss. OU's deepest team position is WR and Trey Franks and Kameel Jackson along with senior Dejuan Miller will pick up the slack. Broyles is the all-time FBS receptions leader, he's obviously a big loss but they played without him the last four games and have had a month to craft a gameplan without him. I am leaning under more and more in this game, can't believe as an OU fan I'd be considering an under 58 with a QB who is going to be a top 15 NFL pick. But Landry is inaccurate and losing Whaley has meant they depend more on the pass. Sooners also missing Brandon Williams who would supplant Clay as the Sooners #3 option next year behind Whaley and Finch (Clay is #2 tonight). OU's defense has something to prove and Stoops is playing his alma mater so I don't think OU will ghost this game, especially considering recent bowl performances. I think +14 is a solid play though by the numbers, but I also think it is a bit of a trap. Iowa TT under 21.5 or the game under seem like better plays IMO.
 
Nothing on the Iowa State/Rutgers game for me but they did have a common opponent this year:

Iowa St 24 @Uconn 20

@UConn 40 Rutgers 22

I think the game that defined Iowa State this year was their 30-23 loss @K-State in a game I bet Iowa State +10. They gained confidence this year by staying with TAMU then hammering Techa Tech a week after OU lost to the Red Raiders. Then they beat Okie State and didn't get hammered by OU or K-State. I don't know a lot about Rutgers but Iowa state as Leroy pointed out played a much tougher schedule and they are motivated to play today. Looks like the line moved back to Rutgers -1 just in the lat hour, maybe some NYC area bets coming in.

Later:

Miss State -6.5

MSU/Wake under 48

Still deciding on OU/Iowa

 
For the MSU/Wake game tonight, I've teetering b/w MSU -7 and under 49. The only teams who have really put up a ton of points on MSU are Arkansas and Auburn, who have unique offenses. Wake doesn't have a unique offense, but they're largely unsuccessful running the ball; so they'll be passing alot. The bulldogs have a very good defense and should be able to pressure Wake's QB who can't run for #### IIRC. So he's going to have to get rid of the ball quick and try to make some big plays.

I honestly don't know much about wake at all, but I assume them moving the ball so well against FSU is an anomaly.

I'll likely make a decision as it gets closer, but I can be persuaded either way. I think I'm leaning more towards MSU -7, but that could be b/c I hate betting the unders in college FB.

ETA: I do have MSU -7 in a 3 team parlay that I placed last night (Tulsa -1.5, ISU pickem, MSU -7)

 
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iowa st. -1 1 unit

nyg -3 even 1 unit

No way Phil Simms loses at home in a must win game to get the new york football giants into the playoffs when facing the worst PTPer ever whose hand is hurt so bad he hadn't even take a snap under center in practice yet this week as of yesterday.

 
'Tiger Fan said:
For the MSU/Wake game tonight, I've teetering b/w MSU -7 and under 49. The only teams who have really put up a ton of points on MSU are Arkansas and Auburn, who have unique offenses. Wake doesn't have a unique offense, but they're largely unsuccessful running the ball; so they'll be passing alot. The bulldogs have a very good defense and should be able to pressure Wake's QB who can't run for #### IIRC. So he's going to have to get rid of the ball quick and try to make some big plays. I honestly don't know much about wake at all, but I assume them moving the ball so well against FSU is an anomaly. I'll likely make a decision as it gets closer, but I can be persuaded either way. I think I'm leaning more towards MSU -7, but that could be b/c I hate betting the unders in college FB.ETA: I do have MSU -7 in a 3 team parlay that I placed last night (Tulsa -1.5, ISU pickem, MSU -7)
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IIRC, the key to Wake beating fsu was them forcing 5 turnovers. My biggest concern is how motivated is MSU going to be?
 
'Dexter Manley said:
'Tiger Fan said:
For the MSU/Wake game tonight, I've teetering b/w MSU -7 and under 49. The only teams who have really put up a ton of points on MSU are Arkansas and Auburn, who have unique offenses. Wake doesn't have a unique offense, but they're largely unsuccessful running the ball; so they'll be passing alot. The bulldogs have a very good defense and should be able to pressure Wake's QB who can't run for #### IIRC. So he's going to have to get rid of the ball quick and try to make some big plays.

I honestly don't know much about wake at all, but I assume them moving the ball so well against FSU is an anomaly.

I'll likely make a decision as it gets closer, but I can be persuaded either way. I think I'm leaning more towards MSU -7, but that could be b/c I hate betting the unders in college FB.

ETA: I do have MSU -7 in a 3 team parlay that I placed last night (Tulsa -1.5, ISU pickem, MSU -7)
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IIRC, the key to Wake beating fsu was them forcing 5 turnovers. My biggest concern is how motivated is MSU going to be?
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Why would MSU's motivation be any different than Wake's? Both are 6-6, this game is everything to both and the difference between a winning season with a bowl win, and a losing season. Plus the whole representing the SEC thing which I do think comes into play.
 
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