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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (5 Viewers)

Think there is some good value on the ufc card tomorrow night

Joey beltran -200

George Roop +120

Jon Olav Einemo +135

Damian Maia + sometrhing (i think this line has moved a bit, but he is still + at most books)

I like all 4, good luck to all

 
'MarshallPlan said:
To me it's fairly simple. If I like the Pats I can bet them:-130 to win ORBrady +100If I bet NYG I can bet:+120 to win OREli +285Doesn't make any sense. Seems to me from looking at those lines that Eli is a stiff and his team wins in spite of him - where it's the opposite. I would say Brady's line is too low and he needs to be somewhere like +130, but even still Eli is way too high.
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I agree with this. I think the risk of other NY MVP is rather low I still would bet it anything above +200
 
Yeah, I too am buying it. I've got so much on the Giants already though, but screw it. I don't have these and other props offered til' game day, so I hope it doesn't drop much...

 
I lagged a little getting out of here...

Took Golden State, the over, and parlayed em.

Also played a healthy, Bender-sized parlay on both faves in the Aussie Open. Djokavic looks great, his rope-a-dope bs is just that... And AZ is the better player too, right now...just hope she can overcome the nerves, which WILL happen at some point. God knows she tried to collapse against Clijsters... I don't have the option, but I would bte that one goes 3 sets.

GL sickos!

 
So here's a thought. The MVP prop is usually a crap-shoot, with QB's usually pulling it off. Brady at even money sucks, and Eli at +275 does look very tempting.

Other good values are Welker (+1200), Nicks (+1000), Cruz (+800) and Gronk (+700).

However, I think this game is going to come down to big defensive / Special teams plays. I know it hasn't happened since Dexter Jackson in 2003, but a defensive player is due, and this has all the makings of it.

Field +600

 
'PatsFanCT said:
So here's a thought. The MVP prop is usually a crap-shoot, with QB's usually pulling it off. Brady at even money sucks, and Eli at +275 does look very tempting.Other good values are Welker (+1200), Nicks (+1000), Cruz (+800) and Gronk (+700). However, I think this game is going to come down to big defensive / Special teams plays. I know it hasn't happened since Dexter Jackson in 2003, but a defensive player is due, and this has all the makings of it.Field +600
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Don't do it.You have two golden boy QBs in Brady and Manning.Three potential huge stat line WRs in Cruz, Nicks, and Welker.God knows what Gronkowski is going to do in the Superbowl, probably breath fire.Don't place that bet.
 
'gussy said:
Terrible day yesterday, but it seems like there were a lot of people wrong.Either way, haven't had much feel lately so I'm backing off a little on theunit side. 3 1/2 unit plays tonight:Loyola, MD -2 1/2-WINMarist +8 1/2-LOSSManhatten -10-WIN2012 Posted PicksCBB-54-45-1 (54.5%)NFL-4-0NBA-5-5-1CFB-1-0NHL-8-3
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.One of the gambling websites I go to confirmed today what I was alluding to yesterday when I said I don't have much of a feel lately. They said that it just feels like Vegas is really close on all of these spreads lately and he advises going smaller units until we get to the tournament which I will most likely be doing at this point. I will be playing 1/2 (or full for most of you degens) units going forward unless I otherwise note it.
 
Marquette -3-WIN

Kansas -6-LOSS

VCU pick

St. Louis -4 1/2-LOSS

Miami, O. +3 1/2

SIU-Edwardsville +12

Baylor -7 1/2-LOSS

Miss St. +8 1/2-LOSS

Delaware +13 1/2-LOSS

Colorado St. +2

Texas A&M -4 1/2

Maryland +2

William & Mary +15 1/2

WAZZU -2 1/2

Rutgers +1 1/2

TCU +16 1/2

Brown +16

I'm sure I'll be adding some more early games as well.

2012 Posted Picks

CBB-55-50-1 (52.3%)

NFL-4-0

NBA-5-5-1

CFB-1-0

NHL-8-3

 
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'gussy said:
'gussy said:
Terrible day yesterday, but it seems like there were a lot of people wrong.Either way, haven't had much feel lately so I'm backing off a little on theunit side. 3 1/2 unit plays tonight:Loyola, MD -2 1/2-WINMarist +8 1/2-LOSSManhatten -10-WIN2012 Posted PicksCBB-54-45-1 (54.5%)NFL-4-0NBA-5-5-1CFB-1-0NHL-8-3
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.One of the gambling websites I go to confirmed today what I was alluding to yesterday when I said I don't have much of a feel lately. They said that it just feels like Vegas is really close on all of these spreads lately and he advises going smaller units until we get to the tournament which I will most likely be doing at this point. I will be playing 1/2 (or full for most of you degens) units going forward unless I otherwise note it.
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vegas is really good at setting lines? color me shocked! ;)
 
'JerseyToughGuys said:
'gussy said:
'gussy said:
Terrible day yesterday, but it seems like there were a lot of people wrong.Either way, haven't had much feel lately so I'm backing off a little on theunit side. 3 1/2 unit plays tonight:Loyola, MD -2 1/2-WINMarist +8 1/2-LOSSManhatten -10-WIN2012 Posted PicksCBB-54-45-1 (54.5%)NFL-4-0NBA-5-5-1CFB-1-0NHL-8-3
Click to expand...
.One of the gambling websites I go to confirmed today what I was alluding to yesterday when I said I don't have much of a feel lately. They said that it just feels like Vegas is really close on all of these spreads lately and he advises going smaller units until we get to the tournament which I will most likely be doing at this point. I will be playing 1/2 (or full for most of you degens) units going forward unless I otherwise note it.
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vegas is really good at setting lines? color me shocked! ;)
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They're fairly quick studies, eh?
 
'gussy said:
Marquette -3

Kansas -6

VCU pick

St. Louis -4 1/2

Miami, O. +3 1/2

SIU-Edwardsville +12

I'm sure I'll be adding some more early games as well.

2012 Posted Picks

CBB-54-45-1 (54.5%)

NFL-4-0

NBA-5-5-1

CFB-1-0

NHL-8-3
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people are going to throw a fit about the bolded if you are mixing .5 unit plays in. I've always laughed at all the flak you take, but that is a big no no imo. It's dishonest/inaccurate as it gets.
 
Golf matchups. Jhonattan Vegas +125 vs. Stewart Cink. Brandt Snedeker -110 vs. Haas. Straight plays and 3 team parlay (@ SB under parlay all props) with Djokovic -155.

 
'JerseyToughGuys said:
'gussy said:
Marquette -3

Kansas -6

VCU pick

St. Louis -4 1/2

Miami, O. +3 1/2

SIU-Edwardsville +12

I'm sure I'll be adding some more early games as well.

2012 Posted Picks

CBB-54-45-1 (54.5%)

NFL-4-0

NBA-5-5-1

CFB-1-0

NHL-8-3
Click to expand...
people are going to throw a fit about the bolded if you are mixing .5 unit plays in. I've always laughed at all the flak you take, but that is a big no no imo. It's dishonest/inaccurate as it gets.
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That and using individual parlay legs (NHL) as part of a record are a little suspect, especially when using legs like Vancouver -300. Showing units won/lost is a nice touch and paints a nice picture, unless people use the 10, 20, 50 unit plays, then things get a little polluted. The bottom line though is to just have fun. If you do ever get serious about this Gus and are posting on a site where everyone is extremely uptight about records and record keeping and widely available lines (despite how it may seem at first, this isn't one of those sites), you may want to keep the things in mind that Jersey and I pointed out. Have fun and enjoy your hobby!
 
'gussy said:
'gussy said:
Terrible day yesterday, but it seems like there were a lot of people wrong.Either way, haven't had much feel lately so I'm backing off a little on theunit side. 3 1/2 unit plays tonight:Loyola, MD -2 1/2-WINMarist +8 1/2-LOSSManhatten -10-WIN2012 Posted PicksCBB-54-45-1 (54.5%)NFL-4-0NBA-5-5-1CFB-1-0NHL-8-3
Click to expand...
.One of the gambling websites I go to confirmed today what I was alluding to yesterday when I said I don't have much of a feel lately. They said that it just feels like Vegas is really close on all of these spreads lately and he advises going smaller units until we get to the tournament which I will most likely be doing at this point. I will be playing 1/2 (or full for most of you degens) units going forward unless I otherwise note it.
Click to expand...
I don't know if it's "lately" - rather, all season. I've used a system watching line movements for a while too similar to bmj (and you), and in the past it has worked out well.I know GooRoo alluded to it in one post where he asked what happens if another reverse line movement comes in the opposite direction? Maybe it's my imagination, but it seems like that is happening more often than it ever has for me. If this is true, this could absolutely be a result of more efficient lines and sharks having to find smaller margins to bet on. If you have a very inefficient line, obviously the sharks will continue to move it in one direction because they see the same thing. IF the lines are sharper, the margins will have a greater chance on being on either side of the line. I normally don't play my picks until right before tip (which I do disagree with how you and bmj post) and there seems to be an overwhelming amount of picks I have that reverse 4 or 5 minutes before tip (as I am making the play too). I know for a fact that totals have been cleaned up tremendously. I was excited about Kurt's site having them, but haven't had many total plays at all this year.
 
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'JerseyToughGuys said:
'gussy said:
Marquette -3

Kansas -6

VCU pick

St. Louis -4 1/2

Miami, O. +3 1/2

SIU-Edwardsville +12

I'm sure I'll be adding some more early games as well.

2012 Posted Picks

CBB-54-45-1 (54.5%)

NFL-4-0

NBA-5-5-1

CFB-1-0

NHL-8-3
Click to expand...
people are going to throw a fit about the bolded if you are mixing .5 unit plays in. I've always laughed at all the flak you take, but that is a big no no imo. It's dishonest/inaccurate as it gets.
Click to expand...
I didn't bold it, if you're saying by throwing the % out there, I'm not too concerned about it. My unit plays are far different than most I suppose. 10% of my stash is a unit for me, half unit is 5%. I think a lot of people use 4-5% as a full unit. I don't care to figure actual +/- on units and subtract out the vig and all that stuff. If people want to play it fine, if not, fine too. The hockey thing you are right on, I was trying to figure out the other day how I could re-do that and I suppose I should just go back and look at my past 30 days because that should really only reflect winning/losing parlays as I think all except for maybe 2? were parlay plays.
 
SENIOR BOWL ... I'll take the South squad on the ML +125.

The favored North will have to overcome a rash of injuries if it is to knock off the SEC-loaded South in Saturday’s Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama.

The North team, coached by Leslie Frazier and the Minnesota Vikings staff, lost two centers to injury during practice this week and was using a guard at the position late in the week. The result was plenty of botched snaps.

The North also lost Nebraska cornerback Alfonzo Dennard, a projected first-round pick, to a hip flexor.

The South, coached by Mike Shanahan and the Washington Redskins staff, features 21 players from programs in the SEC last season. The SEC, of course, has produced the last six BCS champions.

The South defense also has a pair of projected high first-round draft picks in Alabama linebacker Courtney Upshaw and North Carolina defensive end Quinton Coples. Both players were dominant at times during this week’s practices.

The South has won three of the last four Senior Bowls by an average margin of 16 points per game.

Quarterbacks

Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden has generated the most buzz this week. He’ll lead the South squad, along with Arizona’s Nick Foles and San Diego State’s Ryan Lindley. All three have prototypical NFL quarterback size and strong arms.

That’s not the case on the North squad, with Michigan State quarterback Kirk Cousins the only QB standing over 6-foot. Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson and Boise State’s Kellen Moore are the other North quarterbacks.

Special teams

Georgia’s Brandon Boykin and North Alabama’s Janoris Jenkins, a former Florida Gator are big-time weapons for the South in the return game. Several scouts said they were the fastest players on the field.
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Plus, Leslie Frazier vs. Shanny isn't a fair fight.

I've watched Senior Bowl practices all week and I honestly have no idea why the North is favored. South has greyhounds everywhere you look.

 
'Raider Nation said:
SENIOR BOWL ... I'll take the South squad on the ML +125.

The favored North will have to overcome a rash of injuries if it is to knock off the SEC-loaded South in Saturday’s Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama.

The North team, coached by Leslie Frazier and the Minnesota Vikings staff, lost two centers to injury during practice this week and was using a guard at the position late in the week. The result was plenty of botched snaps.

The North also lost Nebraska cornerback Alfonzo Dennard, a projected first-round pick, to a hip flexor.

The South, coached by Mike Shanahan and the Washington Redskins staff, features 21 players from programs in the SEC last season. The SEC, of course, has produced the last six BCS champions.

The South defense also has a pair of projected high first-round draft picks in Alabama linebacker Courtney Upshaw and North Carolina defensive end Quinton Coples. Both players were dominant at times during this week’s practices.

The South has won three of the last four Senior Bowls by an average margin of 16 points per game.

Quarterbacks

Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden has generated the most buzz this week. He’ll lead the South squad, along with Arizona’s Nick Foles and San Diego State’s Ryan Lindley. All three have prototypical NFL quarterback size and strong arms.

That’s not the case on the North squad, with Michigan State quarterback Kirk Cousins the only QB standing over 6-foot. Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson and Boise State’s Kellen Moore are the other North quarterbacks.

Special teams

Georgia’s Brandon Boykin and North Alabama’s Janoris Jenkins, a former Florida Gator are big-time weapons for the South in the return game. Several scouts said they were the fastest players on the field.
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You must be on to something. It's at +110 now. I'm on it.
 
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'gussy said:
Marquette -3-WINKansas -6-LOSSVCU pick-WINSt. Louis -4 1/2-LOSSMiami, O. +3 1/2-LOSSSIU-Edwardsville +12-WInBaylor -7 1/2-LOSSMiss St. +8 1/2-LOSSDelaware +13 1/2-LOSSColorado St. +2-WINTexas A&M -4 1/2-WINMaryland +2-WINWilliam & Mary +15 1/2-LOSSWAZZU -2 1/2-LOSSRutgers +1 1/2-WINTCU +16 1/2-LOSSBrown +16-WINI'm sure I'll be adding some more early games as well.Adding S.Miss +2 1/2-WINFurman -7-WINGeorgia S. +7 1/2-WINIdaho -6-LOSSFading me may be a play today. Seriously.2012 Posted PicksCBB-65-55-1 (54.1%)NFL-4-0NBA-5-5-1CFB-1-0NHL-8-3
Click to expand...
 
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