FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (5 Viewers)

[bmj87]

SEA TT o3 -120

The current Mariners vs Shields are 48-for-140 (.343), with seven home runs and 40 strikeouts.

I've always wondered how to apply these stats (if to apply them at all).With these Mariners, they only have a 72% contact rate versus James Shields. Not awesome.

But their BABIP vs Shields is .480!

Since their contact rate is so low, I would figure that they're not actually seeing the ball so well. That would mean the .480 BABIP is very flukey and likely to regress, thus lowering their BA vs. Shields.

Thoughts?

Any BABIP of .480 is going to regress, unless you have players with a preternatural, as-yet unknown ability to hit a ton of line drives.

Yea obviously .480 is unsustainable. But regress to what? .380? .320? .220? I guess my comment is more geared towards if anyone has thoughts on a) if it's appropriate to use pitcher vs batter stats w/ decent sample sizes and b) if so, how to interpret that data

 

[Good Posting Judge]

SEA TT o3 -120

The current Mariners vs Shields are 48-for-140 (.343), with seven home runs and 40 strikeouts.

I've always wondered how to apply these stats (if to apply them at all).With these Mariners, they only have a 72% contact rate versus James Shields. Not awesome.

But their BABIP vs Shields is .480!

Since their contact rate is so low, I would figure that they're not actually seeing the ball so well. That would mean the .480 BABIP is very flukey and likely to regress, thus lowering their BA vs. Shields.

Thoughts?

Any BABIP of .480 is going to regress, unless you have players with a preternatural, as-yet unknown ability to hit a ton of line drives.

Yea obviously .480 is unsustainable. But regress to what? .380? .320? .220? I guess my comment is more geared towards if anyone has thoughts on a) if it's appropriate to use pitcher vs batter stats w/ decent sample sizes and b) if so, how to interpret that data

The general rule of thumb I use is LD% + .12 = expected BABIP.Pitcher/batter stats probably won't tell you much reliable.

 

[TheWick]

Reputable sportsbook.ag skin that some might not know about, betusa.agThey did limit me to $10 rather quickly(on everything) but others may have better luck. Good out to have with the football season coming soon.

IN

 

[mquinnjr]

I'm digesting olympic rowing podcasts and prior race stats to see what we can come up with for the olympics . That's the one thing about rowing, these boats (outside of personnel changes) have seen each other 3x already on a yearly basis, and quite recently in Lucerne. I know we're going plus, just how plus is the question. Fading zee Guhmans in the Men's 8 for sure which is the premier race, field vs. Germany is +260. I think the Canadians get the Men's 8 race, but I'm not sure about the Brits, so I think simply fading GER at +260 is fantastic value. Canucks in a separate heat, FWIW, set a world record a month ago for the heat they were in. GER +4 seconds, which is one boat length, in a separate race. Not a ton of separation but if they were head to head a sizeable win in rowing.

I think if you're "all in," going Canada is absolutely the way to go at 6/1. Fading GER is conservative, takes the variability out of a wild card finish if they get taken down (this is not head to head, it's 6 to a race). But, Canada for the crown, fade GER for a nice little payday.

Additions To Above: Mahe Drysdale +200 Men's Single Sculls (Strong play on this)

Australia +300 Men's Four Without Coxswain

GB +140 Lightweight Men's Four Without Coxswain

Croatia +140 Quadruple Sculls Men

 

[modogg]

I'm digesting olympic rowing podcasts and prior race stats to see what we can come up with for the olympics . That's the one thing about rowing, these boats (outside of personnel changes) have seen each other 3x already on a yearly basis, and quite recently in Lucerne. I know we're going plus, just how plus is the question. Fading zee Guhmans in the Men's 8 for sure which is the premier race, field vs. Germany is +260. I think the Canadians get the Men's 8 race, but I'm not sure about the Brits, so I think simply fading GER at +260 is fantastic value. Canucks in a separate heat, FWIW, set a world record a month ago for the heat they were in. GER +4 seconds, which is one boat length, in a separate race. Not a ton of separation but if they were head to head a sizeable win in rowing.I think if you're "all in," going Canada is absolutely the way to go at 6/1. Fading GER is conservative, takes the variability out of a wild card finish if they get taken down (this is not head to head, it's 6 to a race). But, Canada for the crown, fade GER for a nice little payday.Additions To Above: Mahe Drysdale +200 Men's Single Sculls (Strong play on this) Australia +300 Men's Four Without Coxswain GB +140 Lightweight Men's Four Without Coxswain Croatia +140 Quadruple Sculls Men

I'm in on all of them. I got much worse odds on realbettors, but everything was plus so i figured why not

 

[Good Posting Judge]

I'm digesting olympic rowing podcasts and prior race stats to see what we can come up with for the olympics . That's the one thing about rowing, these boats (outside of personnel changes) have seen each other 3x already on a yearly basis, and quite recently in Lucerne. I know we're going plus, just how plus is the question. Fading zee Guhmans in the Men's 8 for sure which is the premier race, field vs. Germany is +260. I think the Canadians get the Men's 8 race, but I'm not sure about the Brits, so I think simply fading GER at +260 is fantastic value. Canucks in a separate heat, FWIW, set a world record a month ago for the heat they were in. GER +4 seconds, which is one boat length, in a separate race. Not a ton of separation but if they were head to head a sizeable win in rowing.I think if you're "all in," going Canada is absolutely the way to go at 6/1. Fading GER is conservative, takes the variability out of a wild card finish if they get taken down (this is not head to head, it's 6 to a race). But, Canada for the crown, fade GER for a nice little payday.Additions To Above: Mahe Drysdale +200 Men's Single Sculls (Strong play on this) Australia +300 Men's Four Without Coxswain GB +140 Lightweight Men's Four Without Coxswain Croatia +140 Quadruple Sculls Men

Just an FYI, the European books are on Germany even stronger than SB in the Men's 8. They have them around -450 to -500 to win. Take that fwiw.Good call on Drysdale.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Adding

Serena Williams +350

Maria Sharapova +700

 

[optionmaven]

Fun bet PropsWith the extra par 3 on the front 9(five for the 18) I will take a chance on will there be a hole in one Yes -105.Will there be a playoff Yes +240.Will John Daly make the cut Yes +110.

Catching a little love finally. Aniriban Lahiri scored an ace yesterday and Daly makes it by the skin on his teeth. Playoff well in the realm of happening. My error on the number of par 3's. thought there were 2 on back.

 

[ChainsawU]

I'm digesting olympic rowing podcasts and prior race stats to see what we can come up with for the olympics . That's the one thing about rowing, these boats (outside of personnel changes) have seen each other 3x already on a yearly basis, and quite recently in Lucerne. I know we're going plus, just how plus is the question. Fading zee Guhmans in the Men's 8 for sure which is the premier race, field vs. Germany is +260. I think the Canadians get the Men's 8 race, but I'm not sure about the Brits, so I think simply fading GER at +260 is fantastic value. Canucks in a separate heat, FWIW, set a world record a month ago for the heat they were in. GER +4 seconds, which is one boat length, in a separate race. Not a ton of separation but if they were head to head a sizeable win in rowing.I think if you're "all in," going Canada is absolutely the way to go at 6/1. Fading GER is conservative, takes the variability out of a wild card finish if they get taken down (this is not head to head, it's 6 to a race). But, Canada for the crown, fade GER for a nice little payday.Additions To Above: Mahe Drysdale +200 Men's Single Sculls (Strong play on this) Australia +300 Men's Four Without Coxswain GB +140 Lightweight Men's Four Without Coxswain Croatia +140 Quadruple Sculls Men

I'm in on all of them. I got much worse odds on realbettors, but everything was plus so i figured why not

5D added these and some other Olympic stuff today. I guess I got in early because since I have been sitting here looking at them the last 30 minutes, all the rowing lines have been moving in our favor.

 

[ChainsawU]

SEA TT o3 -120

The current Mariners vs Shields are 48-for-140 (.343), with seven home runs and 40 strikeouts.

I've always wondered how to apply these stats (if to apply them at all).With these Mariners, they only have a 72% contact rate versus James Shields. Not awesome.

But their BABIP vs Shields is .480!

Since their contact rate is so low, I would figure that they're not actually seeing the ball so well. That would mean the .480 BABIP is very flukey and likely to regress, thus lowering their BA vs. Shields.

Thoughts?

Any BABIP of .480 is going to regress, unless you have players with a preternatural, as-yet unknown ability to hit a ton of line drives.

Yea obviously .480 is unsustainable. But regress to what? .380? .320? .220? I guess my comment is more geared towards if anyone has thoughts on a) if it's appropriate to use pitcher vs batter stats w/ decent sample sizes and b) if so, how to interpret that data

The general rule of thumb I use is LD% + .12 = expected BABIP.Pitcher/batter stats probably won't tell you much reliable.

Shields allowed two hits and a run in the first, pitched five innings of hitless baseball, and allowed a single and a homerun in the seventh.

Whatever they had in KC did not travel with them to Florida.

 

[Raider Nation]

Cubs @ Cards ... they went to the bottom of the 7th scoreless. St. Loo scored 12 runs in the 7th.

If you had the under, that's gotta rank up there for shitty losses.

 

[modogg]

Long live the UFC and MMA

 

[lumpy19]

ZJ +145 over Tiger

Tiger o70 +100

both of these at betonline

 

[Raider Nation]

Jays/Red Sox need one more run for the over.

They are still in the 1st inning.

 

[ChainsawU]

Parlay

PIT -145

NYY -155

PIT have the best home record in baseball and are on a five-game win streak. Cubs have not scored in their last 25 innings.

Seattle flying back home & Kuroda starting for NYY.

 

[ChainsawU]

Long live the UFC and MMA

Congrats on the good weekend and hitting multiple +300 bets.

 

[lumpy19]

grand salami u123 for as much as i can stand

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

grand salami u123 for as much as i can stand

Evo/realbettors is down to 113

 

[mquinnjr]

I'm digesting olympic rowing podcasts and prior race stats to see what we can come up with for the olympics . That's the one thing about rowing, these boats (outside of personnel changes) have seen each other 3x already on a yearly basis, and quite recently in Lucerne. I know we're going plus, just how plus is the question. Fading zee Guhmans in the Men's 8 for sure which is the premier race, field vs. Germany is +260. I think the Canadians get the Men's 8 race, but I'm not sure about the Brits, so I think simply fading GER at +260 is fantastic value. Canucks in a separate heat, FWIW, set a world record a month ago for the heat they were in. GER +4 seconds, which is one boat length, in a separate race. Not a ton of separation but if they were head to head a sizeable win in rowing.I think if you're "all in," going Canada is absolutely the way to go at 6/1. Fading GER is conservative, takes the variability out of a wild card finish if they get taken down (this is not head to head, it's 6 to a race). But, Canada for the crown, fade GER for a nice little payday.Additions To Above: Mahe Drysdale +200 Men's Single Sculls (Strong play on this) Australia +300 Men's Four Without Coxswain GB +140 Lightweight Men's Four Without Coxswain Croatia +140 Quadruple Sculls Men

I'm in on all of them. I got much worse odds on realbettors, but everything was plus so i figured why not

5D added these and some other Olympic stuff today. I guess I got in early because since I have been sitting here looking at them the last 30 minutes, all the rowing lines have been moving in our favor.

Yep, put all mine in there with the exception of the Croatia race, didn't have it. Much better prices, as is usually the case, than SB. I looked up the racing schedule, so looks like early mornings covered Wednesday - Saturday of next week, races in the latter part of their day, worked out well from a seeing the race live before work perspective. Wednesday, August 1 – 7:30 AM – Men's Eight, Final A 0.5U 732 Field wins men's eight gold medal +330*Thursday, August 2 – 7:10 AM – Men's Lightweight Four, Final A 0.5U 741 GB wins men's lightweight coxless four +190*Friday, August 3 – 7:30 AM – Men's Single Sculls, Final A 1U 753 M.Drysdale wins men's single sculls gold +200*Saturday, August 4 – 6:30 AM – Men's Four, Final A 0.5U 703 AUS wins men's coxless four gold +250*

 

[lumpy19]

grand salami u123 for as much as i can stand

Evo/realbettors is down to 113

5dimes still sitting at 123

 

[ChainsawU]

And while Tropicana field is a pitchers park, I’m still rolling the dice for some action on the over tonight.

saw this today..Rays home O/U (not including pushes) 2011 = 25-522012 = 19-30 65 % unders since 2011

 

[ChainsawU]

5D cancelled the u123 excusing it as a line error

your plays are too sharp for them lump

 

[lumpy19]

5D cancelled the u123 excusing it as a line erroryour plays are too sharp for them lump

If you want to fight it I'll provide the line history from Bookmaker which is who they and a bunch of others copied

 

[modogg]

Long live the UFC and MMA

Congrats on the good weekend and hitting multiple +300 bets.

thank you. And like I seem to do a hell of a lot since February, I thought i could make some more and am going to go 0-6 on baseball tonight . Pretty sure I will learn one of these days that betting baseball is not for me, just hoping that day comes soon

 

[ChainsawU]

If you would have told me the Cubs were only going to score two runs yesterday I would have doubled down on the PIT/NYY parlay.

Going with ATL today. Hudson is 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA against MIA. He is 8-1 with a 2.42 ERA in 12 lifetime starts there. And I’m betting the ATL offense shows up.

ATL -101

 

[ChainsawU]

5D cancelled the u123 excusing it as a line erroryour plays are too sharp for them lump

If you want to fight it I'll provide the line history from Bookmaker which is who they and a bunch of others copied

pm sent

 

[modogg]

If you would have told me the Cubs were only going to score two runs yesterday I would have doubled down on the PIT/NYY parlay. Going with ATL today. Hudson is 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA against MIA. He is 8-1 with a 2.42 ERA in 12 lifetime starts there. And I’m betting the ATL offense shows up.ATL -101

Always nice going against Heath Bell too. I just told myself i was done with baseball for the month, but I'm sure i'll throw something on Atl for the hell of it. Not sure of the Phillies line, but the Brewers look like a broken team right now, and the Phils seem to be bouncing back a little. Was nice to see them win it in the 9th tonight, and i'm guessing they may continue the momentum tomorrow. I'm sure they'll be favorites, but it seems like one of those spots where the Brewers will find a way to lose even if they're up

 

[lumpy19]

5D cancelled the u123 excusing it as a line erroryour plays are too sharp for them lump

If you want to fight it I'll provide the line history from Bookmaker which is who they and a bunch of others copied

pm sent

You need to fight these things before the bet takes place. If you try and fight it after it looks like an angle shoot. I sent you the info anyway but I doubt they'll honor it now.

 

[lumpy19]

Quite appropriate since this is actually a fantasy football board

yahoo real money leagues

I know there are other sites that offer this but yahoo is a pretty big player, bet there would be lots of dead money in these things.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

Quite appropriate since this is actually a fantasy football board

yahoo real money leagues

I know there are other sites that offer this but yahoo is a pretty big player, bet there would be lots of dead money in these things.

interesting. This could get me back into Fantasy Football.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

mlb needs more day games for me to lose money on imo

 

[ChainsawU]

I am now a fan of the guys in the Braves’ booth. Jose Reyes homered in the 2nd and didn’t start running until the ball damn near landed. They got on his case hard and didn’t let up the whole game.

 

[ChainsawU]

mlb needs more day games for me to lose money on imo

ask and you shall receive, there are eight day games tomorrow

 

[dino259]

If you would have told me the Cubs were only going to score two runs yesterday I would have doubled down on the PIT/NYY parlay. Going with ATL today. Hudson is 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA against MIA. He is 8-1 with a 2.42 ERA in 12 lifetime starts there. And I’m betting the ATL offense shows up.ATL -101

Always nice going against Heath Bell too. I just told myself i was done with baseball for the month, but I'm sure i'll throw something on Atl for the hell of it. Not sure of the Phillies line, but the Brewers look like a broken team right now, and the Phils seem to be bouncing back a little. Was nice to see them win it in the 9th tonight, and i'm guessing they may continue the momentum tomorrow. I'm sure they'll be favorites, but it seems like one of those spots where the Brewers will find a way to lose even if they're up

Sad banana from this brew crew fan. Did this count as another blown save?

 

[modogg]

If you would have told me the Cubs were only going to score two runs yesterday I would have doubled down on the PIT/NYY parlay. Going with ATL today. Hudson is 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA against MIA. He is 8-1 with a 2.42 ERA in 12 lifetime starts there. And I’m betting the ATL offense shows up.ATL -101

Always nice going against Heath Bell too. I just told myself i was done with baseball for the month, but I'm sure i'll throw something on Atl for the hell of it. Not sure of the Phillies line, but the Brewers look like a broken team right now, and the Phils seem to be bouncing back a little. Was nice to see them win it in the 9th tonight, and i'm guessing they may continue the momentum tomorrow. I'm sure they'll be favorites, but it seems like one of those spots where the Brewers will find a way to lose even if they're up

Sad banana from this brew crew fan. Did this count as another blown save?

I don't believe so, but I do have to say, as a Phillies fan, thank you Brewers. Phils still got a long way to go to even get in the playoff hunt, and hopefully this Brewers team is helping them build some confidence back and get ready to go on a bit of a tear.

 

[charvik]

Bump

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

mlb needs more day games for me to lose money on imo

ask and you shall receive, there are eight day games tomorrow

Talk to me, goose.Lump>hey~~@

 

[lumpy19]

mlb needs more day games for me to lose money on imo

ask and you shall receive, there are eight day games tomorrow

Talk to me, goose.Lump>hey~~@

was/mets u7.5 cubs/pit u7.5

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

mlb needs more day games for me to lose money on imo

ask and you shall receive, there are eight day games tomorrow

Talk to me, goose.Lump>hey~~@

was/mets u7.5 cubs/pit u7.5

 

[Good Posting Judge]

I never realized MP was such a young guy.

 

[John Bender]

I never realized MP was such a young guy.

He made 6 figures in 2010 gambling on sports.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

I never realized MP was such a young guy.

He made 6 figures in 2010 gambling on sports.

Do we know how he did during all of those other years?

 

[John Bender]

I never realized MP was such a young guy.

He made 6 figures in 2010 gambling on sports.

Do we know how he did during all of those other years?

We can't know that; we already know too much.

 

[John Bender]

Here we go again...another season of hearing this ####### #### song nonstop.

 

[John Bender]

LA Angels +550 to win the AL Pennant.

Locking it up.

 

[John Bender]

Quite appropriate since this is actually a fantasy football board

yahoo real money leagues

I know there are other sites that offer this but yahoo is a pretty big player, bet there would be lots of dead money in these things.

interesting. This could get me back into Fantasy Football.

Same here.

Been on a 2 year hiatus. In for a few of these.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

getting for Dong!@~@

 

[optionmaven]

getting for Dong!@~@

And Mahe Mahe.

 

[hooter311]

Day game:

ATL/MIA o 7.5

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

getting for Dong!@~@

And Mahe Mahe.

who dat? Row boat dude? I played all of those too.