Kansas State -24.5
Other than death and taxes the other absolute in Kansas is Bill Snyder covering and covering big against the Jayhawks. This game against the in-state rival is the one game he circles every year. The past three years KSU has covered by an average of 28 points. From 94-03 under Snyder when KSU was the significantly better team, as they are this year, Snyder's teams covered by an average of 18 points.
KSU is coming off of a bye, so Snyder has had significant time to knock his team off of their high horse after winning in Norman. KSU is healthy and should be very focused.
KU's chance to keep this closer than expected would be to run the ball and shorten the game, but KSU has been good against the run this year allowing an average of less than 100 yards/game. Bill Snyder will want to send a message to Charlie Weis and show him who's boss in this state. If KSU gets up big, Klein comes out, and you are worried about a back door cover by KU remember that KSU's back up QB, Daniel Sams, is a dynamic runner and the can put some scores up in garbage time just like he did against Miami.