Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
SHARPS REPORT - THURSDAY/FRIDAY EDITION
THURSDAY NIGHT
NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND: Because of the nature of early betting, some stores opened this line as high as New England -13 or -12.5. Sharps have generally been coming in on the Jets at that high line, particularly with the news that Danny Amendola was extremely limited in practice this week. You probably know that running back Shane Vereen has been placed in Injured Reserve for two months because of a broken hand. As we got to press, we’re seeing lines as low as Jets +11.5 and +11. Sharps clearly like the Jets at +13, +12.5, +12, and +11.5. Wise Guys tend not to lay big numbers in the NFL…so there may not be a buy back on the Patriots unless the number goes as low as -10.
Given the nature of public betting on game days (which tends to back big favorites), we’re likely to see a tug-of-war before kickoff with squares betting the Patriots, and sharps trying to get a favorable price on the Jets.
The total is down from an opener of 44.5 to 43, with money reacting to injury news. Given the fast style of New England’s play, we’re hearing that the numbers guys would probably come in on the Over at 43, and certainly at anything lower than 43. Of course, sharps will be watching weather reports before making their final decisions on any big totals bets.
TCU AT TEXAS TECH: This game opened at TCU by 6, and has been bet all the way down to just TCU -3. Some of that was confirmation that quarterback Casey Pachall was out for two months with a broken arm. But we’re hearing that many Wise Guys have been impressed with Texas Tech out of the gate…and are looking to back new head coach Kliff Kingsbury before the line catches up. Kingsbury was a part of what created line value last year for Texas A&M (where he was the offensive coordinator). The Red Raiders are 2-0 ATS so far in the new season.
There wasn’t a rush of TCU money when the key number was hit, which is telling. Be sure to monitor line moves in the hours before kickoff to see if numbers below three get tested. Stores posting an early total saw Over money hit at 62 and 62.5.
TULANE AT LOUISIANA TECH: An ugly game because neither team has played well yet this season. Louisiana Tech opened at -7.5. That number stood pat for awhile…suggesting sharps wanted no part of the underdog. But, very late Wednesday it was clear that some Wise Guy money had started to come in on the underdog. A few stores tested Louisiana Tech -7 instead of -7.5.
We’re not hearing much enthusiasm for this game from sharps. Top bettors usually want at least one clear facet of play that represents a strength for their side. Neither of these teams has shown much so far.
TROY AT ARKANSAS STATE: Arkansas State opened at the key number of -10, and was bet down immediately all the way to Troy +8. That’s very clear sentiment for the road underdog…at numbers that will no longer be available to stragglers unless the public comes in on the home favorite. That could happen…but it’s less common in games that aren’t prominently televised.
FRIDAY NIGHT
AIR FORCE AT BOISE STATE: The first stores to open had this game at Boise State -21.5 or -22…but they were hit hard with favorite money from the sharps. Later openers came up at Boise State -24. We’re mostly seeing a tug-of-war at that number…with some dog money coming in at +24, but favorite money stepping back in at Boise State -23.5.
Note that Air Force lost its starting quarterback in the season opener vs. Colgate. New starter Jaleel Awini struggled when playing from behind against Utah State last week. He’ll probably be playing from behind on the blue turf at Boise…which is why sharps where so quick to hit openers below -24.
THURSDAY NIGHT
NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND: Because of the nature of early betting, some stores opened this line as high as New England -13 or -12.5. Sharps have generally been coming in on the Jets at that high line, particularly with the news that Danny Amendola was extremely limited in practice this week. You probably know that running back Shane Vereen has been placed in Injured Reserve for two months because of a broken hand. As we got to press, we’re seeing lines as low as Jets +11.5 and +11. Sharps clearly like the Jets at +13, +12.5, +12, and +11.5. Wise Guys tend not to lay big numbers in the NFL…so there may not be a buy back on the Patriots unless the number goes as low as -10.
Given the nature of public betting on game days (which tends to back big favorites), we’re likely to see a tug-of-war before kickoff with squares betting the Patriots, and sharps trying to get a favorable price on the Jets.
The total is down from an opener of 44.5 to 43, with money reacting to injury news. Given the fast style of New England’s play, we’re hearing that the numbers guys would probably come in on the Over at 43, and certainly at anything lower than 43. Of course, sharps will be watching weather reports before making their final decisions on any big totals bets.
TCU AT TEXAS TECH: This game opened at TCU by 6, and has been bet all the way down to just TCU -3. Some of that was confirmation that quarterback Casey Pachall was out for two months with a broken arm. But we’re hearing that many Wise Guys have been impressed with Texas Tech out of the gate…and are looking to back new head coach Kliff Kingsbury before the line catches up. Kingsbury was a part of what created line value last year for Texas A&M (where he was the offensive coordinator). The Red Raiders are 2-0 ATS so far in the new season.
There wasn’t a rush of TCU money when the key number was hit, which is telling. Be sure to monitor line moves in the hours before kickoff to see if numbers below three get tested. Stores posting an early total saw Over money hit at 62 and 62.5.
TULANE AT LOUISIANA TECH: An ugly game because neither team has played well yet this season. Louisiana Tech opened at -7.5. That number stood pat for awhile…suggesting sharps wanted no part of the underdog. But, very late Wednesday it was clear that some Wise Guy money had started to come in on the underdog. A few stores tested Louisiana Tech -7 instead of -7.5.
We’re not hearing much enthusiasm for this game from sharps. Top bettors usually want at least one clear facet of play that represents a strength for their side. Neither of these teams has shown much so far.
TROY AT ARKANSAS STATE: Arkansas State opened at the key number of -10, and was bet down immediately all the way to Troy +8. That’s very clear sentiment for the road underdog…at numbers that will no longer be available to stragglers unless the public comes in on the home favorite. That could happen…but it’s less common in games that aren’t prominently televised.
FRIDAY NIGHT
AIR FORCE AT BOISE STATE: The first stores to open had this game at Boise State -21.5 or -22…but they were hit hard with favorite money from the sharps. Later openers came up at Boise State -24. We’re mostly seeing a tug-of-war at that number…with some dog money coming in at +24, but favorite money stepping back in at Boise State -23.5.
Note that Air Force lost its starting quarterback in the season opener vs. Colgate. New starter Jaleel Awini struggled when playing from behind against Utah State last week. He’ll probably be playing from behind on the blue turf at Boise…which is why sharps where so quick to hit openers below -24.
Last edited by a moderator:
####### ####![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
