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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)

Tiger Fan said:
Raider Nation said:
modogg said:
Raider Nation said:
Heard a commercial on Sirius today for Jonathan Stone.

Evidently he's a great handicapper. Hitting over 75%! And you won't believe the luck... his Game of the Year is going THIS WEEK!

I wasn't convinced at first, but then he said that we can move on this game as if it's already been played!!!
Those commercials have been running forever...guy must be raking it in
Just a heads up. Stone's GAME OF THE WEEK is going tonight. Michael Rose, too. His GAME OF THE WEEK is going tonight.

It's the most uncanny thing.... no matter what day you hear their radio spots, every scamdicapper's GAME OF THE WEEK just happens to be going that night! Imagine the odds. A "week" must = 24 hours to them.
i get tempted to call from time to time. i can't figure out the scam, mostly because i never called any of these places. i assume you have to give some info or money to hear their pick?
Well, the "scam" is that you get the Saints, and the next guy who calls is given the Seahawks. And so on and so on. 50% of the people will be happy and they'll call him again. Then half of THOSE people will win again, and they'll think the guy is a God. And the people who lose the second time will think "Well, maybe it was just a bad break. He did win for me the first time!"

As for the bait and switch with the money, I'm not sure exactly how that works but I'm pretty sure you aren't getting anything for "free"...
And some loud obnoxious guy will call you every saturday and sunday morning with the hard sell. I tried this in college and they would call on Saturday mornings when I was already tailgating for the LSU games :banned: . I would keep this guy on for as long as I could until he figured out I wasn't going to buy his picks.
I love when these clowns call. I usually screw with them for a while, and the direct them to my site and tell them how awesome I am and much money they could be making if they bet $1000 per unit and followed me.

 
The Ref said:
Dan Lambskin said:
One of my buddies was subscribing to a tout last basketball season

I think his 5 star picks were 10-0 until I started gambling again and laid down $200 so he could drop to 10-1
There are a few reliable touts out there. They arent the ones barking at you on TV Sunday mornings on the Home Shopping Network.
I've used Eastman a few times this year, he has been outstanding in college. Something like 20-5 over the last few weeks. He did get his ### handed to him last week though

 
Re: touts. I've spoken about it here and there, but I've purchased predictionmachine.com's service a few times this year and I really like it. It's all data driven and 100% transparent. His live scoring stuff is crazy, it updates the odds after every play. If my betting units were larger, I'd subscribe to him for the season. I might pony up the $150 for the playoffs.

 
When I took human nutrition it was a bunch of nurses in there - and a hot dietician teaching the class. There was even a hot black chick who was vegan and her cleavage was ALWAYS out. Bouncy vegan cleavage every day. When it came time for me to make my presentation to class, I presented on how important of calcium and vitamin D is to women and how it could help them lose weight and stay healthy. When I was done, said thank you, and everyone clapped and was like - no, thank you :D

 
I thought Wright should have had one on that 1st down play. ####. He played great but the Saints O sucked too much.

 
The Ref said:
Seattle -6.5/Under 48.5/Broncos -12

167/1000
So... not to be a highlighting jerk, but whats the chances the Broncos beat the Titans by 12 this week?
you have a hell of a hedging opportunity with this. Nice job bud, i have to start throwing some parlays around and hit one like that before the season is done

 
I think they set the 2H at PK and put both team totals at 14 :shrug:
hmm, that would make sense because i would have no idea what to bet with that. ov 14 New Orleans maybe, but they haven't been able to drive too well, and SEA is one of those defenses that take pride in their D, and won't let up just because they have a good lead

ETA: might go SEA to make up for the ton of New Orleans teasers i put in last night. Wish i could kick my own ### sometimes, i liked SEA for most of the week, and i saw that SF-SEA game from earlier this year thinking we would see something similar. yet i still made a good number of teasers with N.O.
I lost on a teaser too. When that Saints ATS line kept getting bet and going the wrong direction it was like how low could have they set the Saints line and still get action? Yet they set that high number and opened themselves up for all kinds of teaser action. It's like, how are they going to give us all these points on the Saints, but there you have it brohan. Realized that way too late to do anything about it though. But the RLM and high opening number should have sent a message. Definitely kicking rocks on that one..

 
I think they set the 2H at PK and put both team totals at 14 :shrug:
hmm, that would make sense because i would have no idea what to bet with that. ov 14 New Orleans maybe, but they haven't been able to drive too well, and SEA is one of those defenses that take pride in their D, and won't let up just because they have a good lead

ETA: might go SEA to make up for the ton of New Orleans teasers i put in last night. Wish i could kick my own ### sometimes, i liked SEA for most of the week, and i saw that SF-SEA game from earlier this year thinking we would see something similar. yet i still made a good number of teasers with N.O.
I lost on a teaser too. When that Saints ATS line kept getting bet and going the wrong direction it was like how low could have they set the Saints line and still get action? Yet they set that high number and opened themselves up for all kinds of teaser action. It's like, how are they going to give us all these points on the Saints, but there you have it brohan. Realized that way too late to do anything about it though. But the RLM and high opening number should have sent a message. Definitely kicking rocks on that one..
Yup, you figure we would catch on at some point but keep plugging away. I had all sorts of bets in on this one, and the damage only ended up being -$43, so i will take it. Crazy how that happens, and usually is the lead-in for one of those to go wrong and take a nosedive with the acct. balance, so i may lay low for a day or 2.

 
I bought Cincinnati U +3½ 105/100 and added to the partybus for Thursday. Just taking the best price on the market and three is a good number to have.

 
Yup, you figure we would catch on at some point but keep plugging away. I had all sorts of bets in on this one, and the damage only ended up being -$43, so i will take it. Crazy how that happens, and usually is the lead-in for one of those to go wrong and take a nosedive with the acct. balance, so i may lay low for a day or 2.
How did you make out on all your futures getting graded yesterday? :oldunsure:

 
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Yup, you figure we would catch on at some point but keep plugging away. I had all sorts of bets in on this one, and the damage only ended up being -$43, so i will take it. Crazy how that happens, and usually is the lead-in for one of those to go wrong and take a nosedive with the acct. balance, so i may lay low for a day or 2.
How did you make out on all your futures getting graded yesterday? :oldunsure:
not so hot. Total crap shoot for me with CFB. But the acct. is still positive so so far, so good. I have a couple of nasty NFL futures on the horizon (mother f'n Texans :rant: ), but i have a few nice one's too. Definitely went overboard with NFL futures this year, and luckily i hit a good chunk of them so if i take some losses it shouldn't be too bad.

You?

 
Not getting as much participation over in the Shark Pool post I made anymore.... OROY is down to Lacy, Gio and Allen now right?
Gio, Lacy, Stacy, Glennon I believe. I vote Lacy.
So i have been looking around some more to get a sense of who has the lead with this OROY race. It is funny since the time you wrote this post GR, because Stacy and Glennon seemed to fall back down quite a bit this week. Unfortunately Lacy and Gio both came up a little limp too, so it didn't seem to move the needle much in any direction. I tried looking through NFL.com and some other sites that could compile thoughts, but nothing stood out as that useful. Profootballfocus has Lacy and Gio in the discussion (https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/11/26/race-for-rookie-of-the-year-week-12-2/). but i haven't found much substance anywhere.

Reason i was checking is because i checked my future bets at 5dimes, and i don't think i made one of them before 1:30 a.m. :bag: The result of this has me on Leveon Bell huge over there. He had a good week (i think over 130 combined yards), but there doesn't seem to be any buzz about him so i am worried for him. I think i literally have half of my pending bets over there on Bell, which is just crazy.

But from everything i have read over the last hour or so, i would say Lacy seems to be the favorite at this point. And it isn't like there are a few candidates in the discussion, it is more like nobody stands out as being that dominant to take it, so it could be somewhat wide open if somebody puts on a show the last few weeks. Glennon is the one that would really F me, but it looks like he has SF, @STL, and @New Orleans yet, so he should not be able to blow up in those.

any thoughts?

 
Not getting as much participation over in the Shark Pool post I made anymore.... OROY is down to Lacy, Gio and Allen now right?
Gio, Lacy, Stacy, Glennon I believe. I vote Lacy.
So i have been looking around some more to get a sense of who has the lead with this OROY race. It is funny since the time you wrote this post GR, because Stacy and Glennon seemed to fall back down quite a bit this week. Unfortunately Lacy and Gio both came up a little limp too, so it didn't seem to move the needle much in any direction. I tried looking through NFL.com and some other sites that could compile thoughts, but nothing stood out as that useful. Profootballfocus has Lacy and Gio in the discussion (https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/11/26/race-for-rookie-of-the-year-week-12-2/). but i haven't found much substance anywhere.

Reason i was checking is because i checked my future bets at 5dimes, and i don't think i made one of them before 1:30 a.m. :bag: The result of this has me on Leveon Bell huge over there. He had a good week (i think over 130 combined yards), but there doesn't seem to be any buzz about him so i am worried for him. I think i literally have half of my pending bets over there on Bell, which is just crazy.

But from everything i have read over the last hour or so, i would say Lacy seems to be the favorite at this point. And it isn't like there are a few candidates in the discussion, it is more like nobody stands out as being that dominant to take it, so it could be somewhat wide open if somebody puts on a show the last few weeks. Glennon is the one that would really F me, but it looks like he has SF, @STL, and @New Orleans yet, so he should not be able to blow up in those.

any thoughts?
I think Gio has the best shot. Leads rookies in TDs, second? in total yards and is on a division leader.

 
Not getting as much participation over in the Shark Pool post I made anymore.... OROY is down to Lacy, Gio and Allen now right?
Gio, Lacy, Stacy, Glennon I believe. I vote Lacy.
So i have been looking around some more to get a sense of who has the lead with this OROY race. It is funny since the time you wrote this post GR, because Stacy and Glennon seemed to fall back down quite a bit this week. Unfortunately Lacy and Gio both came up a little limp too, so it didn't seem to move the needle much in any direction. I tried looking through NFL.com and some other sites that could compile thoughts, but nothing stood out as that useful. Profootballfocus has Lacy and Gio in the discussion (https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/11/26/race-for-rookie-of-the-year-week-12-2/). but i haven't found much substance anywhere.

Reason i was checking is because i checked my future bets at 5dimes, and i don't think i made one of them before 1:30 a.m. :bag: The result of this has me on Leveon Bell huge over there. He had a good week (i think over 130 combined yards), but there doesn't seem to be any buzz about him so i am worried for him. I think i literally have half of my pending bets over there on Bell, which is just crazy.

But from everything i have read over the last hour or so, i would say Lacy seems to be the favorite at this point. And it isn't like there are a few candidates in the discussion, it is more like nobody stands out as being that dominant to take it, so it could be somewhat wide open if somebody puts on a show the last few weeks. Glennon is the one that would really F me, but it looks like he has SF, @STL, and @New Orleans yet, so he should not be able to blow up in those.

any thoughts?
I think Gio has the best shot. Leads rookies in TDs, second? in total yards and is on a division leader.
I only have Lacy and Gio tickets. Glennon is the one who scares me. Huge QB bias in this voting and he just won Offensive rookie of the month. Allen had another big week as well.

I think it's a four horse race between Lacy, Gio, Glennon and Allen and frankly I'm not sure whos out front anymore. The Aaron Rodgers injury really hurt Lacys chances IMHO.

 
Also I grabbed some NIU 230/200 (of course it dropped to -110 right after) but I can see it going to -3.5 at some point

Also NIU has been a great 2nd half team as well so if it's close at the half I may grab some if that as well

BGSU has a tough D but I don't think they can stop Lynch and this is indoors so weather no factor

NIU 41-BGSU 27

 
So, my book just re-listed their Heisman odds.

Surprised to see this up, I'm thinking of throwing some money at McCarron in the event the Winston stuff blows up. He himself looked great on Saturday/ all season, so I don't think his performance took him out of the running even with a loss.

Here's their odds right now. Thinking a few units, shot at the bookie play here. Thoughts?

McCarron +2000

Williams +2000

Miller +1000

Petty +2000

Winston -2500

Johnny Football +2000

Lynch +300

Mariota +5000

Boyd +10000

Bridgewater +2500

Field +3500
If you toss a couple units on everything except Winston and the field, how do you lose if the po-po come calling for Winston?

Worth a shot, no?
Actually thinking about this more...the shark move is to ignore the heisman and pounce on the national championship line if it's announced that Winston is getting charged.

Wow imagine the disaster if FSU is in the title game and Winston can't play

 
So, my book just re-listed their Heisman odds.

Surprised to see this up, I'm thinking of throwing some money at McCarron in the event the Winston stuff blows up. He himself looked great on Saturday/ all season, so I don't think his performance took him out of the running even with a loss.

Here's their odds right now. Thinking a few units, shot at the bookie play here. Thoughts?

McCarron +2000

Williams +2000

Miller +1000

Petty +2000

Winston -2500

Johnny Football +2000

Lynch +300

Mariota +5000

Boyd +10000

Bridgewater +2500

Field +3500
If you toss a couple units on everything except Winston and the field, how do you lose if the po-po come calling for Winston?

Worth a shot, no?
Actually thinking about this more...the shark move is to ignore the heisman and pounce on the national championship line if it's announced that Winston is getting charged.

Wow imagine the disaster if FSU is in the title game and Winston can't play
I am with you here. There is a reason these odds are 20/1-ish on everyone else, total crap shoot. FSU not covering in the NCG w/o Winston is a little more of a good bet.

 
The sucker line of the week is the Fresno -3.5. I didn't even think that was right when I first looked at it. Then I had a closer look at Utah St post Chuckie Keaton death and they have played VERY well.

EDIT - I think the NIU line is asking for trouble too. BG has played well.

 
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I bought Cincinnati U +3½ 105/100 and added to the partybus for Thursday. Just taking the best price on the market and three is a good number to have.
Thinking I may hop aboard... Cards haven't been too impressive lately and Bearcats have been playing well
And here is another game at that 3.5..... The books are just asking for the public to jump on the favorites here.

Looks like Arizona St will get to 3.5 if it isn't there already.....

My prediction is the Books are going to crush NCAA this week.

 
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I bought Cincinnati U +3½ 105/100 and added to the partybus for Thursday. Just taking the best price on the market and three is a good number to have.
Thinking I may hop aboard... Cards haven't been too impressive lately and Bearcats have been playing well
And here is another game at that 3.5..... The books are just asking for the public to jump on the favorites here.

Looks like Arizona St will get to 3.5 if it isn't there already.....

My prediction is the Books are going to crush NCAA this week.
The lou/cin line opened at lou-7, bookmaker took a bunch of cincy bets

Pacific Time Louisville Cincinnati U 12/01/13 09:58:00am -3½-110 +3½-110 12/01/13 09:57:57am -3½-124 +3½+103 12/01/13 09:57:27am -3-124 +3+103 12/01/13 08:51:55am -3-115 +3-105 12/01/13 08:51:51am -3-102 +3-119 12/01/13 08:50:55am -3½-102 +3½-119 12/01/13 08:43:01am -3½-110 +3½-110 12/01/13 08:42:59am -3½-102 +3½-119 12/01/13 08:42:31am -4-102 +4-119 12/01/13 08:42:06am -4-110 +4-110 12/01/13 08:35:47am -4½-110 +4½-110 12/01/13 08:10:35am -5-110 +5-110 12/01/13 08:10:34am -5-102 +5-119 12/01/13 08:09:52am -6-102 +6-119 12/01/13 07:51:39am -6-110 +6-110 12/01/13 07:51:38am -6-108 +6-112 12/01/13 07:50:56am -6½-108 +6½-112 12/01/13 07:46:05am -6½-110 +6½-110 12/01/13 07:46:02am -7-110 +7-110
 
I bought Cincinnati U +3½ 105/100 and added to the partybus for Thursday. Just taking the best price on the market and three is a good number to have.
Thinking I may hop aboard... Cards haven't been too impressive lately and Bearcats have been playing well
And here is another game at that 3.5..... The books are just asking for the public to jump on the favorites here.

Looks like Arizona St will get to 3.5 if it isn't there already.....

My prediction is the Books are going to crush NCAA this week.
The lou/cin line opened at lou-7, bookmaker took a bunch of cincy bets

Pacific Time Louisville Cincinnati U 12/01/13 09:58:00am -3½-110 +3½-110 12/01/13 09:57:57am -3½-124 +3½+103 12/01/13 09:57:27am -3-124 +3+103 12/01/13 08:51:55am -3-115 +3-105 12/01/13 08:51:51am -3-102 +3-119 12/01/13 08:50:55am -3½-102 +3½-119 12/01/13 08:43:01am -3½-110 +3½-110 12/01/13 08:42:59am -3½-102 +3½-119 12/01/13 08:42:31am -4-102 +4-119 12/01/13 08:42:06am -4-110 +4-110 12/01/13 08:35:47am -4½-110 +4½-110 12/01/13 08:10:35am -5-110 +5-110 12/01/13 08:10:34am -5-102 +5-119 12/01/13 08:09:52am -6-102 +6-119 12/01/13 07:51:39am -6-110 +6-110 12/01/13 07:51:38am -6-108 +6-112 12/01/13 07:50:56am -6½-108 +6½-112 12/01/13 07:46:05am -6½-110 +6½-110 12/01/13 07:46:02am -7-110 +7-110
That is crazy considering it was a "game of year" line at UL -3. That means that somehow between the beginning of the season and that opening line, someone decided that UL is much better than people thought and/or Cincy is much worse than expected. I would have thought the exact opposite.

Regardless, my take on this game is the same as before. UL is a much better team and Bridgewater will show up for the big game, but Nippert is worth like 8 points. I'm pretty optimistic for this game as a UC fan.

 
The sucker line of the week is the Fresno -3.5. I didn't even think that was right when I first looked at it. Then I had a closer look at Utah St post Chuckie Keaton death and they have played VERY well.

EDIT - I think the NIU line is asking for trouble too. BG has played well.
We'll see. I'm much more impressed by NIUs recent wins over Ball St and @ Toledo than I am with BGSU beating Buffalo and a bunch of bottom feeders. Granted the Ball St game was closer than the score but they're better competition than what BG has faced lately

 
The sucker line of the week is the Fresno -3.5. I didn't even think that was right when I first looked at it. Then I had a closer look at Utah St post Chuckie Keaton death and they have played VERY well.

EDIT - I think the NIU line is asking for trouble too. BG has played well.
I dunno Fresno was emabrassing last week lettin gup 450 yards passing int he first half I believe

 
One line I like this weekend but I think I'll wait on, is the Arizona State/Stanford UNDER 56. Graham was on SVP yesterday talking about his team's need to run 80+ plays, and how difficult that is to do vs Stanford. First meeting was 42-28 but included a lot of ASU garbage points, so I think the public will lean on the over here...at least I'm hoping.

Also I'd bet Okie State this weekend if I bet against my team. Line opened at 11 and is down to 9.5 now, I'd grab that.

 
One line I like this weekend but I think I'll wait on, is the Arizona State/Stanford UNDER 56. Graham was on SVP yesterday talking about his team's need to run 80+ plays, and how difficult that is to do vs Stanford. First meeting was 42-28 but included a lot of ASU garbage points, so I think the public will lean on the over here...at least I'm hoping.

Also I'd bet Okie State this weekend if I bet against my team. Line opened at 11 and is down to 9.5 now, I'd grab that.
Not a bleeping chance. I had about 4 prop unders in that Ariz St Stanford game and they all went up in flames. It may be a good bet, but I'm not going anywhere near an under for that matchup.

 
So, my book just re-listed their Heisman odds.

Surprised to see this up, I'm thinking of throwing some money at McCarron in the event the Winston stuff blows up. He himself looked great on Saturday/ all season, so I don't think his performance took him out of the running even with a loss.

Here's their odds right now. Thinking a few units, shot at the bookie play here. Thoughts?

McCarron +2000

Williams +2000

Miller +1000

Petty +2000

Winston -2500

Johnny Football +2000

Lynch +300

Mariota +5000

Boyd +10000

Bridgewater +2500

Field +3500
If you toss a couple units on everything except Winston and the field, how do you lose if the po-po come calling for Winston?

Worth a shot, no?
Actually thinking about this more...the shark move is to ignore the heisman and pounce on the national championship line if it's announced that Winston is getting charged.

Wow imagine the disaster if FSU is in the title game and Winston can't play
I am with you here. There is a reason these odds are 20/1-ish on everyone else, total crap shoot. FSU not covering in the NCG w/o Winston is a little more of a good bet.
http://www.tomahawknation.com/2013/12/3/5170742/jameis-winston-favorite-win-heisman-trophy-odds

Winston's odds to win the Heisman at various sports books range from 1/20 to 1/10 1/5. Even the most conservative, at 1/5, puts him at roughly 15X more likely to win than the runner up. And indeed, the story of the Heisman is fast becoming who will finish second.

In ESPN's experts poll, Winston garnered every single 1st-place vote. In other polls, Winston is earning at least two out of every three.
 
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So, my book just re-listed their Heisman odds.

Surprised to see this up, I'm thinking of throwing some money at McCarron in the event the Winston stuff blows up. He himself looked great on Saturday/ all season, so I don't think his performance took him out of the running even with a loss.

Here's their odds right now. Thinking a few units, shot at the bookie play here. Thoughts?

McCarron +2000

Williams +2000

Miller +1000

Petty +2000

Winston -2500

Johnny Football +2000

Lynch +300

Mariota +5000

Boyd +10000

Bridgewater +2500

Field +3500
If you toss a couple units on everything except Winston and the field, how do you lose if the po-po come calling for Winston?

Worth a shot, no?
Actually thinking about this more...the shark move is to ignore the heisman and pounce on the national championship line if it's announced that Winston is getting charged.

Wow imagine the disaster if FSU is in the title game and Winston can't play
I am with you here. There is a reason these odds are 20/1-ish on everyone else, total crap shoot. FSU not covering in the NCG w/o Winston is a little more of a good bet.
Just to put it out there...FSU is loaded with NFL type talent. Sean Maguire played in the last 3 games against crap opponents ( Wake/Syracuse/Idaho ) but had ratings of 96/121/124 in very limited action (21 attempts). Give him time to prepare and I think they still beat OSU or Auburn. The defense gave up 34 to BC, 17 to NCState and nobody else scored over 14. The only time FSU didn't score over 40 was last week and they have 4 running backs that have elite college talent. I'll wait and play FSU after the public over reacts the wrong way....unless they're playing Mizzou, which scares me as a fan.

There's that, but Winston isn't getting charged.

 
Last time the favorite in the MAC Championship covered the spread was 2007. The favorite in the MAC Championship is 10-6 SU (.625) and 4-10-2 ATS (.286) since 1997 (avg line -8.7). The O/U is 2-5-0 (avg total 58) since they started keeping track of it in 2006. full details

Last season’s game cashed the over within regulation as #17 Kent State scored 21 4Q points to force overtime against #21 Northern Illinois. It was especially interesting because Kent State was believed to have the better chance of jumping into the top-16 with a win and qualifying for a BCS game that would have generated $8 million in revenue for the MAC.

Kent State lost the game, but after subsequent losses by Texas and UCLA, and along with a 12-1 record and the nationally televised win over Kent State, NIU ended up finishing in the top-16. They were invited to the Orange Bowl and the MAC got their BCS bowl appearance (and 8 million dollars) after all.

 
I bought Cincinnati U +3½ 105/100 and added to the partybus for Thursday. Just taking the best price on the market and three is a good number to have.
I figure both teams can score 3 TDs - average total points scored in their two games last year was 72 points. SNF action to boot. Nugs let me twist your arm here brohan.

Carolina vs. New Orleans o45 120/100

 
UMass -5

Georgia Tech -2

Notre Dame +7.5
Bovada:

[2u] Ferrell (ind) Over 2 made 3s -120

Vonleh (ind) Under 10.5 rebs -130

[3u] Rice (ill) Under 8 rebs -130

Golden (gt) Under 13pts -120

Newbill (psu) Under 16.5p -130

White (iowa) Under 18.5p+r -125

[2u] Grant (nd) Over 13.5p -110

White (fsu) Over 6.5 rebs -110

Big day.

 

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