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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)

3 team parlay:

.5u to win 1.5u ish

LA/Van u5

Wis +1

Wis/Ken o138

ETA: I've been drinking since 2

 
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Jeff Green over 16.5 pts and over 3s made 1h hit. Sully is close to hitting too.

We doing anything in the 2h on this?

Nice call gents.

 
PatsFanCT said:
I know I'm a homer, but if you like value, you should love UConn at 66-1 to win the National Championship.

Great guard play, Great defense, and a nice 7 foot center. Granted, they have looked real good blowing out some not so great teams, but they have been looking stronger and stronger lately, and with no stand out "Best team in the country" in the way, getting 66-1 on a top 25 team isn't the worst thing you can do.
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:tebow: I tailed here, also got Wisconsin at 50-1 on a tail.

 
ArbyMelt said:
PatsFanCT said:
I know I'm a homer, but if you like value, you should love UConn at 66-1 to win the National Championship.

Great guard play, Great defense, and a nice 7 foot center. Granted, they have looked real good blowing out some not so great teams, but they have been looking stronger and stronger lately, and with no stand out "Best team in the country" in the way, getting 66-1 on a top 25 team isn't the worst thing you can do.
Click to expand...
:tebow: I tailed here, also got Wisconsin at 50-1 on a tail.
Click to expand...
awesome

 
Raider Nation said:
Las Vegas Sharps Report .... (Cross-posted from Final Four thread)

======================

Florida vs. UCONN

The Florida Gators are the only #1 seed left in the NCAA Tournament. And, according to the computers, they have a chance to reach the finals without facing a single team thats in the top 10! Thats surely taking advantage of some bracket breaks. But, make no mistakethis is a legitimate power capable of running the table even against a tougher slate. Their wins over Pittsburgh and UCLA make that very clear.

Connecticut isnt the biggest Cinderella left in the Dance based on seeding. But, thats because the committee gave Kentucky a #8 when they really deserved a #4 or a #5. The computers have UCONN as the only real Cinderella in Arlington. Can the Huskies do a Texas Two-Step on the way to a stunning national title?

Lets run some numbers!

Computer Rankings

Florida: #1 in Pomeroy, #1 in Sagarin

UCONN: #15 in Pomeroy, #11 in Sagarin

College basketball guru Ken Pomeroy and USA Today computer whiz Jeff Sagarin both have Florida as the #1 team in their ratings given recent losses by Arizona and Louisville. Pomeroy still only has UCONN as a Sweet 16 caliber team. And, that might be all they could have managed if the Sweet 16 wasnt held at their home away from home in Madison Square Garden! Sagarin has them knocking on the door of the Top 10and would sure move them into the top 10 were the Huskies to spring an upset here.

Offensive Rank (Adjusted for Schedule)

Florida: #18

UCONN: #49

UCONN gets raves about their guard play and their free throw shooting. But, they really werent a great offensive team this year by tournament standards. Their free throw shooting is truly fantastic, which gives them a lethal finishing ability if they have a late lead. But, they cant count on getting the whistles going their way. Florida has the much more efficient offense on a per-possession basis according to Pomeroys methodology, which adjusts for pace and strength of schedule.

Defensive Rank (Adjusted for Schedule)

Florida: #1

UCONN: #10

These are both fantastic defenses. Both are among the very best in the nation at guarding the basket. Florida also forces a lot of turnovers. The Gators are well-positioned to make another strong case again for the defense wins championships line of thinking. But, if UCONN has a history-making weekend, they could make the same case! Defensive powers matching up in North Texas.

Pace Ranking

Florida: #322

UCONN: #247

Youre likely to see an extremely slow game. Connecticut is below average in pace, while Florida is one of the slowest good teams in the whole country. Both prefer to work the ball for good shots. And, in this matchup, both will be trying to do that against elite defenses. Might turn into a real grinder that isnt exactly must-see TV.

Against the Spread

Florida: 18-15-1

UCONN: 21-15

Both teams have cashed tickets this season. Thats particularly impressive for Florida, whos been battling tall spreads as a national power. Connecticut got hot at the right time, pushing them to six games over the .500 mark against market expectations.

Vegas Line: Florida by 6.5, total of 126.5

The Gators have to be the clear favorite based on all the math. And, they might be getting some additional respect because of familiarity with this locale. Florida faced Florida-Gulf Coast and Michigan in the dome last year (though theyd rather forget the Michigan game!). Plus, UCONN wont have any sort of home area edge this time around. Keep in mind that a number like six-and-a-half is high for a grinder game. Florida will be emphasizing a pace that might make it difficult for them to clear the number with anything less than a dominance.

======================

Wisconsin vs. Kentucky

The nightcap of Saturdays Final Four basketball fast features a pair of top quality teams who go about things in very different ways. The contrasts between Wisconsin and Kentucky arent as extreme as they used to be. Wisconsin is a touch faster and a bit more athletic this year than in the past (which is why theyre having such a deep run!). Kentucky is a bit slower this year and was late to find their killer instinct (which is why they were only a #8 seed). But, we still have two very distinct approaches to basketball.

*Wisconsin patiently works the ball around on offense, trying to find an open look. Kentucky gets the ball to a star who attacks the basket quickly and aggressively. That leads to some big days from long range for Wisconsin, and some big days at the free throw line for Kentucky.

*Wisconsin tends to back off in the paint if the ball goes in deep. Theyre particularly soft when center Frank Kaminsky isnt near the rim discouraging shots. Kentuckys athletes try to make high impact plays when you get the ball inside.

Its possible that were going to have one of the all time Dance scoring shows if Wisconsin is draining treys while Kentucky is flying unchecked to the rim. Its possible that were going to have a blowout if either team falls slightly off their norms while the other hits on all cylinders.

A challenging game to handicap. Lets go to our key information resources

Computer Rankings

Wisconsin: #6 in Pomeroy, #4 in Sagarin

Kentucky: #8 in Pomeroy, #6 in Sagarin

College basketball guru Ken Pomeroy and USA Today computer whiz Jeff Sagarin both see Wisconsin as two positions better. But, the margin for error when youre evaluating about 350 teams is such that you might as well call it a dead heat. Interesting that such varied philosophies can lead to virtually the same level of excellence and success. The legal betting markets tend to weight recent form more heavily. Thats why Kentucky is the betting favorite. Its a dead heat over five monthsbut Kentuckys had the more impressive Dance run.

Offensive Rank (Adjusted for Schedule)

Wisconsin: #4

Kentucky: #9

We mentioned that both teams get a lot out of their offenses. Wisconsin makes treys, and does a fantastic job of avoiding turnovers. Kentucky picks up so many bonus points at the charity stripe that they can live with more turnovers. The slightest of edges overall to Wisconsinbut relying on treys is a bit more risky than relying on inside points. Yesterday we talked about how defense wins championships much of the time in this tournament. The survivor of this game will try to win with offense in Mondays final.

Defensive Rank (Adjusted for Schedule)

Wisconsin: #45

Kentucky: #40

Both of those represent good rankings nationally, but poor rankings in terms of playing championship caliber basketball. By Dance standards, these are just generic defenses. This is a HUGE fall-off for Kentucky, a team that usually ranks very highly under coach John Calipari. Wisconsin just doesnt recruit dynamic defensive athletes in depthwhich prevents them from playing dynamic defense. Their slow offensive pace helps create the illusion of great defense some years. The media still hasnt figured that out.

Pace Ranking

Wisconsin: #287

Kentucky: #226

We talked about this at the top. Wisconsin is usually in the 300sso there a bit faster this year than normal. Their fans thanks them! Kentucky is slower this year than normal because they dont have super-fast guards who fly at the basket. Their best weapons are slower big guys, and Calipari has been smart to play to those strengths. Given the nature of the matchup, it may be a high scoring game with a slow pace.

Against the Spread

Wisconsin: 21-16

Kentucky: 19-15-2

Kentuckys recent run has launched them past the .500 mark. They were struggling late in the season until really clicking in the SEC tournament. Theres been no looking back since. Wisconsin has posted a solid profit, also thanks to a postseason run.

Vegas Line: Kentucky by 1.5, total of 139.5

Respect there for Kentuckys recent form (sharps and oddsmakers have been impressed with a win streak over the likes of Wichita State, Louisville, and Michigan). And, thats a high total for a slow gameso the market has been doing its research on the teams

:banned:
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Buddy of mine went to Wisco, so I'm on the Badgers for a unit. Betting no juice against other friends.

:football:

 
ArbyMelt said:
PatsFanCT said:
I know I'm a homer, but if you like value, you should love UConn at 66-1 to win the National Championship.

Great guard play, Great defense, and a nice 7 foot center. Granted, they have looked real good blowing out some not so great teams, but they have been looking stronger and stronger lately, and with no stand out "Best team in the country" in the way, getting 66-1 on a top 25 team isn't the worst thing you can do.
Click to expand...
:tebow: I tailed here, also got Wisconsin at 50-1 on a tail.
Click to expand...
That's exactly what I have too....Wisky/uConn futures. If Wisky can find a way tonight this nugger is about to get whiskey wild, complete with titty tassles.

1st things 1st...lets go Wisky

 
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Sully over hit too....can't believe I just won 3 units on a Celtics tail with 9 minutes left in the 3rd quarter.

That was easy

 
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Soccer for SUN I am rolling with

England

o2.5 Everton/Arsenal

Everton at home 60% of the time over 2.5 goals total

Arsenal on road 63% of the time over 2.5 goals total

Aresnal has 2nd most pts on the road and 4th highest scoring team but has not won is their last 4 matches while Everton is red hot winning their last 5. I think Arsenal might pull this off but feel a bit more confident both these teams will net a goal and that we will not get a tie....getting us our 3 goals

France

Lyon PK -130 and if you're feeling lucky to win +150 on the Road against Valenciennes

Val is in relegation position 18/20.

At home they have the 2nd least points

Lyon on the road has the 5th most points in the league and are fighting to get into the 4th for the last "playoff" spot.

I like Lyon to eek out a 1-0 win, maybe they falter a pull a draw.

Italy

Atalanta -135 vs Sassulo

ATL is the 4th best home team while Sassulo has recorded 1 away win all season

Sassulo needs 2 wins just to start to get out of relegation status while an ATL win would get them winthin a pt of Inter-Milan for the last "playoff" spot.
I like ATL to take this one 2-0

 
Thinking of pushing my luck with NHL overs tonight. Check out this stat:

Nashville's last 5 games went over 5.5 while 3 of their last 4 road games went over as well.
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Here's my concern: The over 5.5 is +110. :oldunsure:

This game figures to be a high-flying affair, no?

 
soccer parlays

liverpool back end from a chelsea saturday

4/team

Liverpool

Atalanta

Porto

Maritimo

5ish:1

3/team

Monaco

Porto

St Etienne

1.25:1

3/team

Monaco

St Etienne

Lyon

4.25:1

 
You know how freakin unlikely this Sox RL bet would be? MILW has made a ton of errors and left a small village on base. Need two runs over the next two innings, otherwise it's gonna take a 2-run walkoff HR in extras. Thanks to the hockey plays, I'm not sweating it too hard.

 
Raider Nation said:
You know how freakin unlikely this Sox RL bet would be? MILW has made a ton of errors and left a small village on base. Need two runs over the next two innings, otherwise it's gonna take a 2-run walkoff HR in extras. Thanks to the hockey plays, I'm not sweating it too hard.
Click to expand...
like, say, nashville over 5.5?

 
lumpy19 said:
Congrats to frosti..... Think he had UConn 50-1 and now they're in the finals
Click to expand...
Indeed. Also have Wisconsin at 50-1. Also in the quarters draft I was in I had UCONN. Also in this season long deal I'm in where you get to pick any five teams within a $100 budget two of my teams are UCONN and Wisconsin. As much as it pains me, if Wisconsin wins tonight this is going to be a very, very good March.

 
ArbyMelt said:
PatsFanCT said:
I know I'm a homer, but if you like value, you should love UConn at 66-1 to win the National Championship.

Great guard play, Great defense, and a nice 7 foot center. Granted, they have looked real good blowing out some not so great teams, but they have been looking stronger and stronger lately, and with no stand out "Best team in the country" in the way, getting 66-1 on a top 25 team isn't the worst thing you can do.
Click to expand...
:tebow: I tailed here, also got Wisconsin at 50-1 on a tail.
Click to expand...
:hifive:

 
Frostillicus said:
lumpy19 said:
Congrats to frosti..... Think he had UConn 50-1 and now they're in the finals
Click to expand...
Indeed. Also have Wisconsin at 50-1. Also in the quarters draft I was in I had UCONN. Also in this season long deal I'm in where you get to pick any five teams within a $100 budget two of my teams are UCONN and Wisconsin. As much as it pains me, if Wisconsin wins tonight this is going to be a very, very good March.
Click to expand...
Arent you a Minnesota guy?

 
derek245583 said:
Frostillicus said:
lumpy19 said:
Congrats to frosti..... Think he had UConn 50-1 and now they're in the finals
Click to expand...
Indeed. Also have Wisconsin at 50-1. Also in the quarters draft I was in I had UCONN. Also in this season long deal I'm in where you get to pick any five teams within a $100 budget two of my teams are UCONN and Wisconsin. As much as it pains me, if Wisconsin wins tonight this is going to be a very, very good March.
Click to expand...
Arent you a Minnesota guy?
Click to expand...
Yes. #### Wisconsin except for tonight.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
I like Penguins U30 SOG a lot tonight at SB.

Wild allow 25 shots/game at home.

Penguins average 28 shots/game on the road.

Bovada has the saves line for Bryzgalov set at 27.5 so I like the Under there quite a bit too.

EDIT: SB line dropped to 29.5 (-135). Tougher but I still like it.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
I like Penguins U30 SOG a lot tonight at SB.

Wild allow 25 shots/game at home.

Penguins average 28 shots/game on the road.

Bovada has the saves line for Bryzgalov set at 27.5 so I like the Under there quite a bit too.

EDIT: SB line dropped to 29.5 (-135). Tougher but I still like it.
Click to expand...
:moneybag:

 
Frostillicus said:
derek245583 said:
Frostillicus said:
lumpy19 said:
Congrats to frosti..... Think he had UConn 50-1 and now they're in the finals
Click to expand...
Indeed. Also have Wisconsin at 50-1. Also in the quarters draft I was in I had UCONN. Also in this season long deal I'm in where you get to pick any five teams within a $100 budget two of my teams are UCONN and Wisconsin. As much as it pains me, if Wisconsin wins tonight this is going to be a very, very good March.
Click to expand...
Arent you a Minnesota guy?
Click to expand...
Yes. #### Wisconsin except for tonight.
Click to expand...
Congrats Frosty on Conn. : thumbup:

Wisc needs some help though :sadbanana:

 
So I have a strict "no futures" policy. But of course watching the potential of 2 40:1+ teams ending up in the finals is crazy and I'll bet them for the rest of my life and never even come close.

:sadbanana:

 
So, I have a "smart TV" from Samsung. It's got all these cool features but for some reason I can't get it to recognize the wireless internet connection....everything else in the house does no problem. In lieu of running a 100ft cable from the modem to TV across the house, is there a wireless base that I could set next to the TV then wire connect the TV to it? Any other suggestions? Mrs Nugs wants to do yoga online through the TV and who am I as a hubby if not supportive of the tight yoga pants?

 
got_nugs said:
So, I have a "smart TV" from Samsung. It's got all these cool features but for some reason I can't get it to recognize the wireless internet connection....everything else in the house does no problem. In lieu of running a 100ft cable from the modem to TV across the house, is there a wireless base that I could set next to the TV then wire connect the TV to it? Any other suggestions? Mrs Nugs wants to do yoga online through the TV and who am I as a hubby if not supportive of the tight yoga pants?
Click to expand...
It's probably voice activated. Try saying "SAMSUNG - RECOGNIZE WIFI"

then wait for it to ask for your password. If it doesn't pick up the first time, just try again

 
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