Sharps haven’t been particularly pleased with their early results in the 2014 Preseason. Their huge support of Buffalo in the Hall of Fame game wasn’t rewarded. Nor was their heavy investments in the Seattle Seahawks Thursday Night in Denver (though there was some buy back before kickoff). Plus, the “blanket” coverage for Overs has been a poor choice to this point. Though, the biggest move to the Over Thursday in the Cincy/Kansas City game proved to be a very easy winner.Let’s see how the Wise Guys have been betting Friday’s sextet of NFL exhibition games. We’ll take them in schedule rotation order…
MIAMI AT ATLANTA: not much interest here, as Atlanta is still on the opener of -3, and the total has only lifted from 36.5 up to 37. Typically, home field advantage isn’t given the full three points in August. So, it’s a bit telling that sharps AREN’T betting Miami on the key number. Yes, three is less of a key number in the Preseason because teams try more two-point conversions. But, a lack of interest on a dog at +3 is an indictment of that dog. Pass for the Wise Guys, at least as of press time.
BUFFALO AT CAROLINA: Huge move here on Buffalo, which isn’t surprising given their head start last week vs. the Giants. Carolina opened at -2, with oddsmakers hedging some already off of what would be a regular season line up near a touchdown. Sources tell us sharps doubled down on the perceived advantage in quarterback depth, and were very happy to get Buffalo with points, at pick-em, and even at -1. We’re now seeing Buffalo -1.5. The Over/Under is up from 36 to 37, with indicators that it may go even higher by kickoff.
TAMPA BAY AT JACKSONVILLE: Most of the interest here has been on the total, with an opener of 35.5 being bet up to 37. There’s also a possibility of 37.5 here based on what we’re hearing. That’s a bit more than the general blanket support for Overs out of the gate. The team side has moved slightly toward the host, as an opener of pick-em is now Jacksonville -1. That’s a tentative endorsement at best in a matchup of losing teams from 2013.
NEW ORLEANS AT ST. LOUIS: This is the live TV game on the NFL Network. Not surprising that the home team has been bet up from -2.5 to -3 in that light. Oddsmakers know that the public likes betting home teams on TV, particularly at lines below a field goal. Some of that move was sharps taking early position. Were the game to move to St. Louis -3.5, we’re hearing that some sharps would come back over the top on the dog around the key number. The total is up from 37 to 38 indoors on a fast track in a TV game.
PHILADELPHIA AT CHICAGO: Huge move on the total here, with a pair of offensive-minded head coaches. The opener of 38.5 has been bet all the way up to 42.5. That’s a stunningly low opener for a game that might be up around 48-50 if it were in the regular season. The team side keeps hopping between Philly +2 and Chicago -1.5. Both are popular betting teams in Las Vegas, and that see-saw effect has been influenced by square money. The Wise Guys are on Over anything at 42 or less, and are largely passing the team side.
OAKLAND AT MINNESOTA: Another home team that’s been bet from -2.5 up to the key number of three…and another game where the Over/Under moved up a point (from 36.5 to 37.5 in this case) because of blanket support for the theme of additional scoring in August from sharps. We can tell you that more than a few Wise Guys are high on Teddy Bridgewater as a player who can have a positive impact quickly at this level. That’s worth remembering because the same guys loved Russell Wilson as a rookie.
The most popular team side of the night from the sharps is Buffalo, and the Over in Eagles/Bears is the most popular total.