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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (5 Viewers)

Still working out the kinks on this one. i don't think there is as big an edge as SOG props but I think in the right situations there is some value here assuming you can get a bet in at -115. I got Pitt last night.... although I expected Crosby to take the draw and he didn't.

Opening faceoff

Columbus

Vancouver

 
Temple 7-1 ATS on the road since last season (avg line 9.8). I know you're not supposed to take away games, but if you take away their 6-point effort at Notre Dame in week one last year, they have averaged 32 ±11 points per game in their seven road games since then. I like that the book is making you play their team total o21½ instead of the flat 21. Also, Sagarin only made Houston around a 1-point favorite in this game. Taking all those things into consideration, I figure if both teams reach 24 points I'll be good for an action junkie play in the late game after the hockey.

Temple/Houston o51 -130

 
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ChainsawU said:
Temple 7-1 ATS on the road since last season (avg line 9.8). I know you're not supposed to take away games, but if you take away their 6-point effort at Notre Dame in week one last year, they have averaged 32 ±11 points per game in their seven road games since then. I like that the book is making you play their team total o21½ instead of the flat 21. Also, Sagarin only made Houston around a 1-point favorite in this game. Taking all those things into consideration, I figure if both teams reach 24 points I'll be good for an action junkie play in the late game after the hockey.

Temple/Houston o51 -130
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I'm in at 52.5

 
Looking to buy an original Nintendo because I'm bored and running out things to buy.

Can someone point me in the right direction - and more importantly, what adapters would I need to connect to a more modern TV?

BTW - this is a serious questions. It's going to be a long winter in Philly. I've played the ROMs, but I want an original here.

Mario 3 and Zelda 2 were the best games ever.

 
John Bender said:
Looking to buy an original Nintendo because I'm bored and running out things to buy.

Can someone point me in the right direction - and more importantly, what adapters would I need to connect to a more modern TV?

BTW - this is a serious questions. It's going to be a long winter in Philly. I've played the ROMs, but I want an original here.

Mario 3 and Zelda 2 were the best games ever.
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ebay. And I think it hooks up fine to a modern TV doesnt it? Just make sure your TV has more than just the HDMI

I got one of the knockoffs. Dont like it as much, seems to be a slight lag in the control. Bleh

 
I bought a used NES from these guys a few years ago. http://www.jjgames.com/

Just a PSA - it sounds really cool at first, but the games got really boring after a day or so. The two-button controller left me wanting more. I bought a PS3 last Christmas though. That thing is pretty dope. The only game I've played is the GTA that came with it, though. But yeah, those dudes ship your NES with a brand-new 72-pin connector, which is what you want.

 
ChainsawU said:
I bought a used NES from these guys a few years ago. http://www.jjgames.com/

Just a PSA - it sounds really cool at first, but the games got really boring after a day or so. The two-button controller left me wanting more. I bought a PS3 last Christmas though. That thing is pretty dope. The only game I've played is the GTA that came with it, though. But yeah, those dudes ship your NES with a brand-new 72-pin connector, which is what you want.
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God bless you brother.

You can attest this operation is legit?

 
ghostguy123 said:
John Bender said:
Looking to buy an original Nintendo because I'm bored and running out things to buy.

Can someone point me in the right direction - and more importantly, what adapters would I need to connect to a more modern TV?

BTW - this is a serious questions. It's going to be a long winter in Philly. I've played the ROMs, but I want an original here.

Mario 3 and Zelda 2 were the best games ever.
Click to expand...
ebay. And I think it hooks up fine to a modern TV doesnt it? Just make sure your TV has more than just the HDMI

I got one of the knockoffs. Dont like it as much, seems to be a slight lag in the control. Bleh
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Got a working N64 collecting dust if you're interested.

 
mquinnjr said:
ghostguy123 said:
John Bender said:
Looking to buy an original Nintendo because I'm bored and running out things to buy.

Can someone point me in the right direction - and more importantly, what adapters would I need to connect to a more modern TV?

BTW - this is a serious questions. It's going to be a long winter in Philly. I've played the ROMs, but I want an original here.

Mario 3 and Zelda 2 were the best games ever.
Click to expand...
ebay. And I think it hooks up fine to a modern TV doesnt it? Just make sure your TV has more than just the HDMI

I got one of the knockoffs. Dont like it as much, seems to be a slight lag in the control. Bleh
Click to expand...
Got a working N64 collecting dust if you're interested.
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never have and never will be interested in a N64. I am all about the original baby

 
I still own an original NES

sold most of my games for drugs though (may still have A Boy and His Blob)

Let a friend borrow the few good ones and never got them back :kicksrock:

 
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Yes, JB, I bought from them and everything was good. You can probably even contact them about wanting to become a new customer beforehand and tell them your needs/wants. Mention something about the cost of gaining a new customer and see if you can get some free stuff or a discount. But yeah, they're a one-stop shop. I just like to negotiate everything and the "cost of gaining a new customer" card has worked for me in the past, especially with small businesses.

 
Dan Lambskin said:
I still own an original NES

sold most of my games for drugs though (may still have A Boy and His Blob)

Let a friend borrow the few good ones and never got them back :kicksrock:
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I bought Double Dribble for 3 bucks at an old school toy shop down the street. There is always hope re-acquiring your long lost treasures on the cheap.

 
John Bender said:
Looking to buy an original Nintendo because I'm bored and running out things to buy.

Can someone point me in the right direction - and more importantly, what adapters would I need to connect to a more modern TV?

BTW - this is a serious questions. It's going to be a long winter in Philly. I've played the ROMs, but I want an original here.

Mario 3 and Zelda 2 were the best games ever.
Click to expand...
One of my favorite sites on Al Gores internet.

http://nintendo8.com/

Happy to hear you were one of the few who respect the beauty that was Zelda 2.... that game was lost on most.

 
Dusty Diamond All Star Softball.

I don't even want to think about how many hours I spent on this one. Recently cleaned out my old room at my parents house and found 3 notebooks just full of score sheets and stats.

 
Buying the hook on ND tomorrow night, +10.5 to win 1U

Think FSU wins this, but 2 possessions just seems like too much to give the book in this one, see this being a 1-possession win for FSU.

 
John Bender said:
For likely a limited time only, GMen are up to +7 on RB.

Go take this before it's too late IMO
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I am not so sure on that. the hype with this Cowpokes team is strong. It is a 4:30 game, i am not sure it will get to +7.5, but i don't think a lot of NYG will come flying in. I blow at predicting line movement in the NFL for the most part, but i just think that Cowpokes bandwagon got packed after last weekend and they will keep chugging in this direction.

Looking at the games over the weekend, this seems like one of the games that the public will have money on. pulling that out of my ### though

 
I referenced this before and it's not very scientific or Sawesque but it doesn't take much for me:

FSU has scored at least 34 points in every single game Winston has started. Looks like FSU's TT is 33.5 ish but not posted yet. I'll be on the over TT. May take over 56.5 too. Matthew Thomas is back for FSU and while he's practiced all year I just don't know if he'll be game focused yet.

 
Should have avoided the extra stuff and stuck with Panthers ML. But then on the other hand the SOG differential was 16-1 in the 5 on 5 in the 1P, and then the Panthers finished the game with over 30 SOG, so props to the Sabres' goalie I guess? Will probably just stick to ML unless something just really presents itself. It sucks to be right on the side but get "more than happy" taking other peripheral crap and losing. Also still trying to figure out if Sagarin's NCAAF numbers are useful, and when to use them, if at all.

 
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ChainsawU said:
Should have avoided the extra stuff and stuck with Panthers ML. But then on the other hand the SOG differential was 16-1 in the 5 on 5 in the 1P, and then the Panthers finished the game with over 30 SOG, so props to the Sabres' goalie I guess? Will probably just stick to ML unless something just really presents itself. It sucks to be right on the side but get "more than happy" taking other peripheral crap and losing. Also still trying to figure out if Sagarin's NCAAF numbers are useful, and when to use them, if at all.
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Panthers missed plenty of real good opportunities (it's on locally here so I watched). Real good goalie play...felt like o2.5 and 1p were both good calls.

 
modogg said:
John Bender said:
For likely a limited time only, GMen are up to +7 on RB.

Go take this before it's too late IMO
Click to expand...
I am not so sure on that. the hype with this Cowpokes team is strong. It is a 4:30 game, i am not sure it will get to +7.5, but i don't think a lot of NYG will come flying in. I blow at predicting line movement in the NFL for the most part, but i just think that Cowpokes bandwagon got packed after last weekend and they will keep chugging in this direction.

Looking at the games over the weekend, this seems like one of the games that the public will have money on. pulling that out of my ### though
Click to expand...
I suck a lot at betting

I'm telling you

take GMen here. I know something

 
ChainsawU said:
Should have avoided the extra stuff and stuck with Panthers ML. But then on the other hand the SOG differential was 16-1 in the 5 on 5 in the 1P, and then the Panthers finished the game with over 30 SOG, so props to the Sabres' goalie I guess? Will probably just stick to ML unless something just really presents itself. It sucks to be right on the side but get "more than happy" taking other peripheral crap and losing. Also still trying to figure out if Sagarin's NCAAF numbers are useful, and when to use them, if at all.
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Enroth played really well early to keep them in it. Great equalizer in hockey.

Sabres biggest weakness so far this year has been the 3rd period. The shots in the first were a bit misleading, but they probably should have gotten one for you.

 
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Las Vegas Sharps Report, week 7

CINCINNATI @ INDIANAPOLIS:

Both of these teams are favored to win their respective divisions in the AFC. The market sees them as dead even right now because Indianapolis is exactly a 3-point favorite (standard home field value in the NFL). It takes a lot of money to move off a solid three, particularly in a game like this where quality teams are matched up. Sharps would fade any public move off the three. The Over/Under is up a point from 49 to 50. Sources tell us that respect for Cincinnati’s defense has faded a bit the past two weeks because of their troubles stopping New England and Carolina. Note that we’ll only mention totals action in games where the numbers has moved at least a point.

TENNESSEE @ WASHINGTON:

Washington has been bet from an opener of -4 up to -5.5. No key numbers are involved. But, that’s a meaningful move triggered by a big advantage at quarterback. Kirk Cousins has been turnover prone…but that’s less of an issue in a home game against one of the worst teams in the league. Sharps remember that Cousins crushed Jacksonville on this field. Tennessee played a nailbiter with the Jags last week. It would take a rise to at least +6 to get any sharps interested in the dog.

MIAMI @ CHICAGO:

This interconference matchup of Wildcard threats has been hopping between Chicago -3 and Miami +3.5. Sharps have definitely shown a preference for the Bears at the key number. But, the percentages are such that dog lovers are stepping in on the Dolphins when the hook is present. We could see a game-day tug-of-war here with the public on the Bears if -3 is readily available, while the sharps who don’t like Chicago will step in on Miami at +3.5.

CLEVELAND @ JACKSONVILLE:

Similar action here to what we saw in Tennessee/Washington, except here it’s the road team being bet up in the range between the critical numbers. Cleveland opened at -4, and is now -5 or -5.5 in most places. Sharps have been aggressive with the Browns of late, and have been rewarded for that aggression. Once again, it would take at least +6 to get sharps interested in the ugly underdog.

SEATTLE @ ST. LOUIS:

Potential tug-of-war shaping up here between Seattle -6.5 and St. Louis +7. There were early position-takers on the Seahawks who were anticipating public action on the defending Super Bowl champs. But the full seven is bringing in dog money from those who believe Seattle has lost a step or two (or three) from last year’s team. Sharp support would have been even stronger for the Rams if they hadn’t faded badly vs. San Francisco this past Monday Night.

CAROLINA @ GREEN BAY:

Interest here has been on the total rather than the team side. An opener of 48.5 has been bet up to 50. It’s telling that the Overs in games involving Carolina and Cincinnati were both bet up after their five-quarter tie last week. Oddsmakers have done a good job of matching sharp algorithms on NFL Over/Unders this season. A joint move like that suggests the syndicates are playing the fatigue angle with good quarterbacks (Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers) facing potentially tired defenses. The line has stayed solid for Green Bay on the critical number of -7. Sharps would fade any public move off the key number.

ATLANTA @ BALTIMORE:

Limited interest in this one, as an opener of Baltimore -7 hasn’t budged. Sources tell us that sharps largely made this game seven themselves. Atlanta’s defense will probably be overmatched by the improving Baltimore offense. But, the Falcons can score themselves, and are certainly capable of coming through the back door. The Wise Guys would fade any public move off the key number. Atlanta would have received consideration in a potential shootout if they hadn’t fared so poorly last week vs. Chicago, and in recent road games vs. the NY Giants, Minnesota, and Cincinnati. Note that sportsbooks aren’t keen on moving Baltimore to -7.5 because they don’t want to invite teaser action on the Ravens at -1.5 in two-teamers.

MINNESOTA @ BUFFALO:

Sharps have calmed down about Teddy Bridgewater. He seemed to be in over his head last week vs. Detroit’s defense. This week he has to play on the road against another good defense. Sharps bet Buffalo -4 on the opener, and kept betting at -4.5 and -5. Some stores are testing the full six just to see if they can bring in some Minnesota money. The total has dropped two points from 44.5 to 42.5. We’re hearing this isn’t so much weather-related (chance of wind), but that there’s serious skepticism about Bridgewater playing well at this site vs. this pass rush.

NEW ORLEANS @ DETROIT:

New Orleans is creating quite a headache for oddsmakers. If the line stays at the opener of New Orleans +2.5, then the Saints will be very popular in basic strategy teasers at +8.5. If the line moves to three, then sharps will love a playoff caliber team like New Orleans at +3 against a host that is having trouble maintaining a consistent offense. As we go to press, most stores are at Detroit -2.5, but there are some three’s out there. The Over/Under has dropped two points from 50 to 48 because Detroit’s just played five straight Unders under their new (and conservative) head coach Jim Caldwell.

KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO:

Kansas City has been getting action in this battle of AFC West Wildcard teams from last year. Both are looking to reach the postseason again this season, so this game should have a playoff feel to it. Kansas City opened at +5.5, but has been bet all the way down to +4. Anticipation of a playoff atmosphere has also generated Under money, with an opening total of 46.5 being bet down to 45.

NY GIANTS @ DALLAS:

Sharps are on the Cowboys bandwagon, with an opener of -4.5 being bet up to -6.5. A lot of games this week sitting between the 3 and the 7! Many sharps were surprised the opener was so low given how badly the Giants played after Victor Cruz suffered an injury last week. We are hearing that underdog money would come in at the full +7. That could set up a game-day tug-of-war between squares on the Cowboys at anything less than a TD, and sharps on the underdog at seven.

ARIZONA @ OAKLAND: Not a lot of betting passion here. The sharps did like Oakland at +4, as we’re now seeing +3.5 across the board. That line isn’t going to drop further because the public would love to bet Arizona at -3 vs. one of the worst teams in the league. Not likely a high interest game even though it’s in the late TV window. If a tug-of-war does develop, it would be between the public on Arizona and sharps on Oakland at +4 or better.

SAN FRANCISCO @ DENVER: Sharps took initial positions on Denver -6 in anticipation of public action. The number moved to Broncos -6.5. As we go to press, there are now some sevens popping up. That number is likely to bring in sharp dog money, given that it’s the exact victory margin of Denver home wins over Indianapolis and Kansas City. San Francisco is as good as or better than those teams…but will be dealing with a short preparation week after a Monday Night divisional win in St. Louis. This will be an extremely heavily bet game in Vegas because of the marquee teams involved…because Peyton Manning is playing…because Nevada is basically “home team territory” for fans of the 49ers (they pack sportsbooks for big games)…and because the prime time kickoff gives wagerers all day to bet. Probably a tug-of-war between the public on Denver at -6.5 or better (and many will lay the seven); and sharps (and Niners locals) at +7 or better. Sportsbooks will pray the game doesn’t land right on seven!

HOUSTON @ PITTSBURGH: The Wise Guys thought the opener of Pittsburgh -4 was too high. They bet Houston at +4 hard, and some kept betting at Houston +3.5. We are seeing some threes starting to pop up. That should bring in favorite money, particularly in a Monday Night home game. We’re likely to see a tug-of-war through the day Monday if action does settle right near the key number of three. Sharps like Houston at anything better than that given Pittsburgh’s disappointing form this season. An early half-point move to the Over (from 44 to 44.5) may signal more Over action on game day if game conditions aren’t expected to inhibit scoring.
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