FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (3 Viewers)

[Raider Nation]

Do you know what the odds were of the Devils, who have the 3rd-fewest goals in the NHL, scoring four times in the 2nd period in Los Angeles... without their leading scorer?

I don't have enough fingers and toes to do the math.

 

[gussy]

Thursday Pucks:

Rangers at Bruins (-130) Rangers have been filthy hot, although they lost to the Islanders in a tired effort on Tuesday. We've been waiting for Boston to get healthy and turn it on and it looks like they finally are, having won 4 in a row with 2 of the wins coming against the Bolts and Pens. Talbot is in net for the Rangers, although he's been solid this year. My numbers call for a very even game but you won't get a good enough line to play an OT spot. Under 5 is close to a play if you trust Talbot. I'll be watching. PASS.

Wild at Sabres (+140) Ugh. Wild have lost 6 in a row and 12 of 14. Sabes have lost 8 in a row and 12 of 13. Wild have LOOKED a little better of late but are still struggling. The Wild did acquire G-Devin Dubnyk from the Yotes today to address their goalie problems, and Dubnyk has been good at times, no idea who starts in net tonight. My numbers call for a very close, terrible game. Only thing that is worth a look, again, is OT, but the line won't be enough to play it. PASS. On betting on it or watching it.

Nucks (-135) at Flyers-Home team coming off a 1-0 loss to the red hot Caps in Washington. I would assume Emery is back in net since Zepp has started 2 in a row. Flyers are 2-6 this year on 2nd night of back to back and I don't trust Emery AT ALL, but -135 seems pretty rich for a Vancouver team that isn't playing especially well right now either. The numbers say that the under 5 1/2 at -105 is a bargain, but I don't want to be on the under of an Emery game right now. PASS.

Habs at Sens (NL)- No line here yet, Habs coming off come from behind win last night in C'Bus. Habs have started to come back to earth just a little here of late and they haven't been especially impressive this year on 2nd nights of back to backs (1-6). Not sure if Price will be in net or if it will be Tokarski. Unless Sens are pretty substantial plus money here, I don't see a play.

Oil (+240) at Bolts- Bolts are -300 in this one which is ridiculous. TB has a ton of talent, but I watched a lot of Edmonton last week and they are showing glimpses. They looked dreadful against Detroit, but they logged wins against the Isles and Hawks and showed promise in both games. I'm not playing a side, ED has been absolutely dreadful on the road, but not a terrible lottery ticket. There's a little bit of value on the OVER 5 1/2 here at -110, but I prefer plus money on totals. PASS.

Avs (+115) at Panthers- Av's in middle of 5 game road streak, Panthers return home after 6 games on road, going 4-2. My numbers say there is some value on Colorado here, but I'm a little gun shy after taking them on the road in Carolina and getting burned. Historically not a good road team. OT would be a play but the odds won't be long enough. PASS.

Wings at Blues (-165)- Wings in last of 6 games on the road and 8 of their last 9. Blues are playing out of their mind right now. No Jimmy Howard for the Wings, I just don't see how they stay in this one. I'll be looking to play the Blues here one way or the other. I'll either play them at -1 1/2 or in a ML parlay.

Jets at Stars (-135) Should be an exciting game. I've made some money on Dallas (one of the few teams I seem to have a read on) and even though they are 1-4 in their last 5, it's not as bad as it looks on paper as I laid out the other day. Jets are scoring at a prolific pace the last 3 and Stars have been giving up a ton of goals as of late. Even though my gut says Dallas in a parlay, I just don't see enough of an edge to play it. I LOVE the over 5 1/2, but at -125 too rich for my blood. I may look and see if I can get any value by playing PERIOD OVER lines.

Flames (-110) at Yotes- Tough game to handicap. I'm assuming Smith starts in net for AZ with the trade of Dubnyk. Yotes have lost all 3 to Calgary this year and in the 2 games Smith started he gave up 5 goals both times. Flames are starting Ortio in net. Ortio has only started one game this year, shutting out the Nucks in Vancouver back on the 10th. Too many unknowns for me to be involved. I really lean Calgary, but not enough to pull the trigger. Numbers say under 5 1/2 but no way I touch that with Smith in net and a relatively unknown in net for Calgary.

Leafs at Sharks(-185) Leafs are a team I've had a hard time getting a handle on. Second night of a back to back after losing in Anaheim tonight 4-0. Leafs have actually played OK on 2nd nights, going 5-5, which I guess is one more thing we shouldn't find surprising about a team that I can't figure out. Numbers call for a relatively easy San Jose win here, but only way to play it is in a parlay. I'll look to parlay the Sharks with either the Blues or the Over in the WPG/DAL game. Under 5 1/2 at -110 also has some value. Leafs are struggling to score and Sharks haven't exactly been lighting it up either.

 

[Raider Nation]

nugs, hope you enjoyed my tweet to Skipper Bayless just now.

 

[gussy]

Blues/Sharks ML Parlay +138

Only play for tonight

 

[Billy Bats]

Blues/Sharks ML Parlay +138

Only play for tonight

Appreciate your pucks write ups gussy. As many games as there are tonight like you, nothing seems to be jumping out at me. I like a couple team totals, overs Calgary and Vancouver if they face Emery, may take the Canucks side as well.

 

[Billy Bats]

Do you know what the odds were of the Devils, who have the 3rd-fewest goals in the NHL, scoring four times in the 2nd period in Los Angeles... without their leading scorer?

I don't have enough fingers and toes to do the math.

Stupid hockey. Kings were last leg of a four teamer for me last night, they suck.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Mel has 8 WR's going in the first round

 

[Treynwreck3]

Mel has 8 WR's going in the first round

Not surprising. Strong class coming out and with the continued evolution of the pro game towards passing, WR's are considered the second skill-set group behind QB's. The QB class is historically weak this year. I think we have seen the last of the 1st rd RB's for awhile. So that leaves O-line, D-line, CB's and WR's.

 

[Billy Bats]

Mike Smith is 0-2-0 with a 4.57 GAA and .813 SV% in two games against the Flames this season.

Flames O2.5 -130

Canucks O2.5 are too juicy at -155... even still I may play it with Emery in net and Flyers on a back to back.

 

[ChainsawU]

Thunder 6-0 SU and ATS when Rockets rest=0 and Thunder rest>0; the biggest sample of games for the Thunder in that situation.

Thunder @ Rockets tonight (HOU B2B)

Golden State @ Thunder tomorrow (OKC B2B)

Golden State @ Rockets Saturday (GS B2B)

Thunder did the same schedule last year, Jan 16/17, except did it coming into Houston on only one day of rest (Rockets were B2B).

Thunder PK -110

 

[ChainsawU]

Utah 6-0 ATS versus AZST since they joined the P12 in 2011, their best ATS record versus any P12 opponent during that time. The majority is on the Utes but someone really liked that +6 so I'm going to wait and see if I can get it later even though 5 is the college # you want.

 

[ChainsawU]

Also going w Memphis.

 

[ScoobySnack]

Utah 6-0 ATS versus AZST since they joined the P12 in 2011, their best ATS record versus any P12 opponent during that time. The majority is on the Utes but someone really liked that +6 so I'm going to wait and see if I can get it later even though 5 is the college # you want.

You looking at taking Utah or az st?

 

[Frostillicus]

GW -7

Nebraska/Wisky o 120.5

 

[lumpy19]

Mel has 8 WR's going in the first round

Winston going 1st.....I whiffed on that one

 

[got_nugs]

nugs, hope you enjoyed my tweet to Skipper Bayless just now.

I missed it!

 

[ChainsawU]

Utah 6-0 ATS versus AZST since they joined the P12 in 2011, their best ATS record versus any P12 opponent during that time. The majority is on the Utes but someone really liked that +6 so I'm going to wait and see if I can get it later even though 5 is the college # you want.

You looking at taking Utah or az st?

I bet I can get AZST 5.5 or 6 later. Sagarin made it a 9-point game in favor of Utah. That's a red flag in itself. So when you add Utah's national ranking to the equation on top of that, it's easy to see why over 7 out of every 10 bets have come in on Utah so far. Because, WHAT A DEAL. It's easy to see why the +5 has been the floor as well, since the +5 is pretty much the most profitable number to have and even justifies the buying of a half-point in situations with a 4.5.

I think waiting until later will be cool since it's on FOX-1. Not much NBA tonight, big audience, people will want action. I can see books taking bets on Utah -5 and the Utah ML in parlays all day long. Then I'll just slip in before tipoff and get the 6 points that I wanted. Pinnacle was selling the +6 between -110 and -130 all night, up until about 9 AM this morning; 5.5 -110 would be pretty good I think.

 

[The Ref]

Mel has 8 WR's going in the first round

Winston going 1st.....I whiffed on that one

I'm in the minority here I'm sure, but I think he is the best QB on the board.

He obviously has a higher bust factor to him then 99/100 other guys, but I think he will make the best pro.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Mel has 8 WR's going in the first round

Not surprising. Strong class coming out and with the continued evolution of the pro game towards passing, WR's are considered the second skill-set group behind QB's. The QB class is historically weak this year. I think we have seen the last of the 1st rd RB's for awhile. So that leaves O-line, D-line, CB's and WR's.

Gordon may go in middle end of the first

 

[swirvenirvin]

Mel has 8 WR's going in the first round

Winston going 1st.....I whiffed on that one

I'm in the minority here I'm sure, but I think he is the best QB on the board.

He obviously has a higher bust factor to him then 99/100 other guys, but I think he will make the best pro.

reminds me of vince young brain though

 

[gussy]

Mel has 8 WR's going in the first round

Winston going 1st.....I whiffed on that one

I'm in the minority here I'm sure, but I think he is the best QB on the board.

He obviously has a higher bust factor to him then 99/100 other guys, but I think he will make the best pro.

reminds me of vince young brain though

Not even close. This dude was accepted to Stanford. He had a 4.0 grade average in High School. He may be immature, but he's not dumb. If you take out the date rape allegation, the other stuff was all pretty typical college hijinks type stuff. I think he's very entitled, he's always been "the man", but he's not stupid. At all. And his pocket presence and ability to check down is better than anybody in college in quite a while. Think Andrew Luck.

 

[got_nugs]

Mel has 8 WR's going in the first round

Winston going 1st.....I whiffed on that one

I'm in the minority here I'm sure, but I think he is the best QB on the board.

He obviously has a higher bust factor to him then 99/100 other guys, but I think he will make the best pro.

reminds me of vince young brain though

I'm not going to continue to defend this kid cause i'm a ######## homer but my word of advice is don't only consider the national media spin on Winston. He's got a talent to read defenses that isn't taught. He's extremely intelligent in that regard. Seriously.

 

[lumpy19]

Mel has 8 WR's going in the first round

Winston going 1st.....I whiffed on that one

I'm in the minority here I'm sure, but I think he is the best QB on the board.

He obviously has a higher bust factor to him then 99/100 other guys, but I think he will make the best pro.

reminds me of vince young brain though

Not even close. This dude was accepted to Stanford. He had a 4.0 grade average in High School. He may be immature, but he's not dumb. If you take out the date rape allegation, the other stuff was all pretty typical college hijinks type stuff. I think he's very entitled, he's always been "the man", but he's not stupid. At all. And his pocket presence and ability to check down is better than anybody in college in quite a while. Think Andrew Luck.

This is exactly what I don't like about him. Seems like he's going to be hard to coach.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Mel has 8 WR's going in the first round

Winston going 1st.....I whiffed on that one

I'm in the minority here I'm sure, but I think he is the best QB on the board.

He obviously has a higher bust factor to him then 99/100 other guys, but I think he will make the best pro.

reminds me of vince young brain though

Not even close. This dude was accepted to Stanford. He had a 4.0 grade average in High School. He may be immature, but he's not dumb. If you take out the date rape allegation, the other stuff was all pretty typical college hijinks type stuff. I think he's very entitled, he's always been "the man", but he's not stupid. At all. And his pocket presence and ability to check down is better than anybody in college in quite a while. Think Andrew Luck.

This is exactly what I don't like about him. Seems like he's going to be hard to coach.

See maziel this year on that.

I dunno if you are smart and you are in his position, you think he wouldnt steal crab legs and get up on a table and tell the co-ed's to suck on his......

also I really dont know the history but I have a hard time thinking he earned the 4.0

 

[gussy]

Mel has 8 WR's going in the first round

Winston going 1st.....I whiffed on that one

I'm in the minority here I'm sure, but I think he is the best QB on the board.

He obviously has a higher bust factor to him then 99/100 other guys, but I think he will make the best pro.

reminds me of vince young brain though

Not even close. This dude was accepted to Stanford. He had a 4.0 grade average in High School. He may be immature, but he's not dumb. If you take out the date rape allegation, the other stuff was all pretty typical college hijinks type stuff. I think he's very entitled, he's always been "the man", but he's not stupid. At all. And his pocket presence and ability to check down is better than anybody in college in quite a while. Think Andrew Luck.

This is exactly what I don't like about him. Seems like he's going to be hard to coach.

See maziel this year on that.

I dunno if you are smart and you are in his position, you think he wouldnt steal crab legs and get up on a table and tell the co-ed's to suck on his......

also I really dont know the history but I have a hard time thinking he earned the 4.0

He didn't tell co-eds to suck on his....................he used a familiar phrase among college kids right now because of a stupid FB feed. Eff her right in the kitty...............not that that matters. Stanford evidently thought he earned the 4.0. I'd hate to be Tampa with the #1 pick because you can't afford to be wrong. I do think he will be a good/great NFL QB IF he can grow up. I do think he's very capable of leading/motivating kids. Grown men? Who knows.

 

[gussy]

And before any of you ask how I know the phrase, I have 2 20 year old sons in college right now. One of them was brave enough to come home with the #FHRITP sticker on his Jeep. His mother was not amused.

 

[The Ref]

And before any of you ask how I know the phrase, I have 2 20 year old sons in college right now. One of them was brave enough to come home with the #FHRITP sticker on his Jeep. His mother was not amused.

You should get him a #CJK5H

 

[gussy]

And before any of you ask how I know the phrase, I have 2 20 year old sons in college right now. One of them was brave enough to come home with the #FHRITP sticker on his Jeep. His mother was not amused.

You should get him a #CJK5H

LOL. I'm pretty sure neither know who CJ is.

 

[TheGooRoo]

lumpy19, on 15 Jan 2015 - 2:07 PM, said:

gussy, on 15 Jan 2015 - 1:52 PM, said:

swirvenirvin, on 15 Jan 2015 - 1:49 PM, said:

The Ref, on 15 Jan 2015 - 1:34 PM, said:

lumpy19, on 15 Jan 2015 - 1:11 PM, said:

swirvenirvin, on 15 Jan 2015 - 10:13 AM, said:Mel has 8 WR's going in the first round

Winston going 1st.....I whiffed on that one

I'm in the minority here I'm sure, but I think he is the best QB on the board.

He obviously has a higher bust factor to him then 99/100 other guys, but I think he will make the best pro.

reminds me of vince young brain though

Not even close. This dude was accepted to Stanford. He had a 4.0 grade average in High School. He may be immature, but he's not dumb. If you take out the date rape allegation, the other stuff was all pretty typical college hijinks type stuff. I think he's very entitled, he's always been "the man", but he's not stupid. At all. And his pocket presence and ability to check down is better than anybody in college in quite a while. Think Andrew Luck.

This is exactly what I don't like about him. Seems like he's going to be hard to coach.

Entitlement, immaturity....are we talking about Manziel or Winston here? Think Cleveland (or anybody) would take Manziel in Rd 1 if they could do it again? I just don't see how you can draft a QB #1 overall (who by default is the centerpiece, the building block of your team moving forward) when he has issues/red flags/buzzers going off. Are you kidding me that this is the guy that TB is entrusting to be the face of their franchise moving forward? Jimbo couldn't even (en)trust him to walk off the field after a win a couple months ago without getting him in a headlock and whispering sweet nothings in his ear for 5 minutes, calming him down and instructing him how to act. No thanks. Let somebody else draft the far less mature version of Jamarcus Russell.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Mel has 8 WR's going in the first round

Winston going 1st.....I whiffed on that one

I'm in the minority here I'm sure, but I think he is the best QB on the board.

He obviously has a higher bust factor to him then 99/100 other guys, but I think he will make the best pro.

reminds me of vince young brain though

Not even close. This dude was accepted to Stanford. He had a 4.0 grade average in High School. He may be immature, but he's not dumb. If you take out the date rape allegation, the other stuff was all pretty typical college hijinks type stuff. I think he's very entitled, he's always been "the man", but he's not stupid. At all. And his pocket presence and ability to check down is better than anybody in college in quite a while. Think Andrew Luck.

This is exactly what I don't like about him. Seems like he's going to be hard to coach.

See maziel this year on that.

I dunno if you are smart and you are in his position, you think he wouldnt steal crab legs and get up on a table and tell the co-ed's to suck on his......

also I really dont know the history but I have a hard time thinking he earned the 4.0

He didn't tell co-eds to suck on his....................he used a familiar phrase among college kids right now because of a stupid FB feed. Eff her right in the kitty...............not that that matters. Stanford evidently thought he earned the 4.0. I'd hate to be Tampa with the #1 pick because you can't afford to be wrong. I do think he will be a good/great NFL QB IF he can grow up. I do think he's very capable of leading/motivating kids. Grown men? Who knows.

Can he grow up?? maybe.. but all the flags are there right now and we have seen in the past how they turn out. I don't recall any QB who ever had maturity issues panning out well. Maybe I'm wrong but especially after the Manziel disgrace where all the flags were there. Don't forget he was supposed to be a top 5 or 10 pick too and he fell like a rock until Clevland took him. I think a GM will think long and hard about making him the face of the fanchise.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Manziel was never considered a great pro-style QB though. Winston is. He can stand in the pocket and deliver throws all over the field. Reads defenses pretty well from reports I've read too.

Huge upside with lots of risk, but all 1st round QBs carry risk. Given the new CBA that doesn't pay these guys as much as they used to get, I'd be shocked if he falls far.

 

[Treynwreck3]

Thunder 6-0 SU and ATS when Rockets rest=0 and Thunder rest>0; the biggest sample of games for the Thunder in that situation.

Thunder @ Rockets tonight (HOU B2B)

Golden State @ Thunder tomorrow (OKC B2B)

Golden State @ Rockets Saturday (GS B2B)

Thunder did the same schedule last year, Jan 16/17, except did it coming into Houston on only one day of rest (Rockets were B2B).

Thunder PK -110

OKC is -2.5 at RB now, which is crazy. Leaning HOU. Thoughts?

 

[swirvenirvin]

Those with sportsbook

Amendola under 36.5

And with bovada. There is a baldwin over 3.5 and under 4.5 opportunity

 

[Billy Bats]

Mike Smith is 0-2-0 with a 4.57 GAA and .813 SV% in two games against the Flames this season.

Flames O2.5 -130

Jets O2.5 -130

 

[Eminence]

What's our play for tonight boys?

 

[modogg]

Mel has 8 WR's going in the first round

Winston going 1st.....I whiffed on that one

I'm in the minority here I'm sure, but I think he is the best QB on the board.

He obviously has a higher bust factor to him then 99/100 other guys, but I think he will make the best pro.

reminds me of vince young brain though

I don't know a ton about him, but i finally found some of the details about his suspension earlier this year. Completely harmless in my opinion, just was doing the same thing from that youtube clip my nephew showed me. Not sure if he is smart at all, but i think his maturity issues are way overblown

 

[modogg]

Mel has 8 WR's going in the first round

Winston going 1st.....I whiffed on that one

I'm in the minority here I'm sure, but I think he is the best QB on the board.

He obviously has a higher bust factor to him then 99/100 other guys, but I think he will make the best pro.

reminds me of vince young brain though

Not even close. This dude was accepted to Stanford. He had a 4.0 grade average in High School. He may be immature, but he's not dumb. If you take out the date rape allegation, the other stuff was all pretty typical college hijinks type stuff. I think he's very entitled, he's always been "the man", but he's not stupid. At all. And his pocket presence and ability to check down is better than anybody in college in quite a while. Think Andrew Luck.

This is exactly what I don't like about him. Seems like he's going to be hard to coach.

See maziel this year on that.

I dunno if you are smart and you are in his position, you think he wouldnt steal crab legs and get up on a table and tell the co-ed's to suck on his......

also I really dont know the history but I have a hard time thinking he earned the 4.0

He didn't tell co-eds to suck on his....................he used a familiar phrase among college kids right now because of a stupid FB feed. Eff her right in the kitty...............not that that matters. Stanford evidently thought he earned the 4.0. I'd hate to be Tampa with the #1 pick because you can't afford to be wrong. I do think he will be a good/great NFL QB IF he can grow up. I do think he's very capable of leading/motivating kids. Grown men? Who knows.

Should have read the rest of these, but yeah the whole incident with what he yelled at the co-eds was dopey, but it is a youtube clip:

I don't know if this is it, but my nephew showed this to me a few months ago and i think this is what he yelled:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdIT74L8hGI

 

[comfortably numb]

Thunder 6-0 SU and ATS when Rockets rest=0 and Thunder rest>0; the biggest sample of games for the Thunder in that situation.

Thunder @ Rockets tonight (HOU B2B)

Golden State @ Thunder tomorrow (OKC B2B)

Golden State @ Rockets Saturday (GS B2B)

Thunder did the same schedule last year, Jan 16/17, except did it coming into Houston on only one day of rest (Rockets were B2B).

Thunder PK -110

OKC is -2.5 at RB now, which is crazy. Leaning HOU. Thoughts?

Still tailing OKC but I'm an idiot.

Take it FWIW

 

[regularguy]

Those with sportsbook

Amendola under 36.5

And with bovada. There is a baldwin over 3.5 and under 4.5 opportunity

Any other plays at Sportsbook?

 

[got_nugs]

oof, Dumba just needs to stay down. He got smoked over and over.

 

[got_nugs]

Thunder 6-0 SU and ATS when Rockets rest=0 and Thunder rest>0; the biggest sample of games for the Thunder in that situation.

Thunder @ Rockets tonight (HOU B2B)

Golden State @ Thunder tomorrow (OKC B2B)

Golden State @ Rockets Saturday (GS B2B)

Thunder did the same schedule last year, Jan 16/17, except did it coming into Houston on only one day of rest (Rockets were B2B).

Thunder PK -110

OKC is -2.5 at RB now, which is crazy. Leaning HOU. Thoughts?

Still tailing OKC but I'm an idiot.

Take it FWIW

You see Athletico today? I took over 2.5 thinking Real would get 3...AM scored twice, once within the 1st 2 minutes of each half, both by the same blonde mohawked dude. It was nutty.

 

[comfortably numb]

Thunder 6-0 SU and ATS when Rockets rest=0 and Thunder rest>0; the biggest sample of games for the Thunder in that situation.

Thunder @ Rockets tonight (HOU B2B)

Golden State @ Thunder tomorrow (OKC B2B)

Golden State @ Rockets Saturday (GS B2B)

Thunder did the same schedule last year, Jan 16/17, except did it coming into Houston on only one day of rest (Rockets were B2B).

Thunder PK -110

OKC is -2.5 at RB now, which is crazy. Leaning HOU. Thoughts?

Still tailing OKC but I'm an idiot.Take it FWIW

You see Athletico today? I took over 2.5 thinking Real would get 3...AM scored twice, once within the 1st 2 minutes of each half, both by the same blonde mohawked dude. It was nutty.

Awesome.

In meeting all afternoon.

Didn't follow.

Good deal. AM has soured me too many times on overs

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I always thought a good name for a team would be the Kansas City Stink.

Just thought I'd share that. Mascot would be a fart cloud.

 

[got_nugs]

I like OKC +8.5 here.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Yotes -110

 

[ChainsawU]

Worst 1Q margin in Thunder history.

 

[modogg]

i'd like to add G-town to the list of dumb teams. how this went to OT i have no idea. G-Town looked like the superior team by far

 

[got_nugs]

IT'S PEANUT BUTTER MEMPHIS (pk) TIME!

 

[Frostillicus]

i'd like to add G-town to the list of dumb teams. how this went to OT i have no idea. G-Town looked like the superior team by far

They're on the list most years.

 

[got_nugs]

Yotes -110

Tailed like a Donkey on this one.