Peyton Marino
Footballguy
nobody even drinks pepsi.
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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
Took all of Rude's IDP plays and compared them b/w RB, Sportsbook and Bovada at current lines: Also updloaded to 3rd tab of spreadsheet
Code:
Bet Units Where to playWilfork -.5 > McDaniel +.5 (-115 2 RB (-115) McCourty U4.5 (-125) 1.5 Bovada (-125) Chung U5.5 (-120) 1.5 Bovada (-125) Ninkovich U4.5 (-105) 1.5 Bovada (-105) Chancellor U6.5 (+110) 1.5 Bovada (+110)Ninkovich -1 > Irvin +1 (-115) 1.5 RB (-115) McCourty +2 > Thomas -2 (-120) 1.5 RB (-115) Hightower U7.5 (-105) 1 Bovada (-105) Collins U8.5 (-105) 1 Bovada (-105) [u9 -165 available at RB] Revis U2.5 (+105) 1 Bovada (-105) [u3 -165 available at RB] Wagner U9.5 (-115) 1 Bovada (-115) [u10 -150 available at RB] Wright U6.5 (+105) . 1 Bovada (+105) Wagner U10 (-135) 1 RB (-150) [u9.5 -115 available at SB] Thomas U6 (-125) 1 SB (-120) Revis U3 (-115) 1 RB (-165) [u2.5 +105 available at Bovada) E.Thomas U5.5 (+105) 0.75 Bovada (+105) Sherman U3.5 (-105) 0.75 Bovada (-105) [u4 -155 available at RB]
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John Bender
Footballguy
FFAWT Social Thread:
Today is Day 31 of no alcohol. I probably haven't gone 30 days without a drink since high school
Anyway - 3 months to go before I let loose on vacation.
Some great side effects:
I sleep so much better than I have in years. As opposed to tossing and turning all night, I close my eyes at 11 and don't wake up until 6 or 7 every single night. This is awesome and gives me more energy to hit the gym.
17 pounds lost. I'm watching what I eat but not really dieting.
This of course all leads to less late night live betting and saving
We got some good stuff to bet on today?
Today is Day 31 of no alcohol. I probably haven't gone 30 days without a drink since high school
Anyway - 3 months to go before I let loose on vacation.
Some great side effects:
I sleep so much better than I have in years. As opposed to tossing and turning all night, I close my eyes at 11 and don't wake up until 6 or 7 every single night. This is awesome and gives me more energy to hit the gym.
17 pounds lost. I'm watching what I eat but not really dieting.
This of course all leads to less late night live betting and saving
We got some good stuff to bet on today?
nice to get the potential push with the higher number, but you're also risking more. In those options, I'd probably lean towards the lower numbers as the juice at RB feels too steep for the higher line.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
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Stepping into the experts betting zone here. I'm an occasional bettor looking to have a little action Sunday.
You fellows are pretty knowledgeable on the subject.
I have $100,what's the best way,in your opinion,to invest it on the big game?
Seattle +2 or
Seattle moneyline or
over/under 47 1/2 pts or
a "margin of victory" bet?
You fellows are pretty knowledgeable on the subject.
I have $100,what's the best way,in your opinion,to invest it on the big game?
Seattle +2 or
Seattle moneyline or
over/under 47 1/2 pts or
a "margin of victory" bet?
RealReactions
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Me at a restaurant:
Waitress: What would you like to drink?
Me: Do you have Pepsi or Coke products?
Waitress: Pepsi
Me: I'll just have some water
Waitress: Water is also a Pepsi product
Me: Just bring me a glass of the bus boy's urine then
Waitress: Well that is likely a Pepsi product also at this point
Me: Can I just get that and throw it in your face then?
Waitress: That's hot
Frostillicus
Footballguy
I will go to my grave knowing that was a bad line and a great bet. ####.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
I think we need some more Blount. sportsbetting.ag has 1st carry at 3
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Kansas missing FT's and Kansas St banking in 3 pointers... Cool
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Blind Tiger
Footballguy
#### you Kansas!
comfortably numb
Footballguy
modogg
Footballguy
he is at -185 now, not sure i would play him at that much. pretty good arb if you want it though.
Also leaning Diaz +325. I explained a little in the MMA wagering thread.
i think i have some others but my hands are too friggin cold from walking my dogs outside
ETA: it is -200 now, that's just dumb
added Diaz for a light play
also Alves +115
Brandao -140
need more money in pending bets to play more..........
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comfortably numb
Footballguy
Nice TAM under!
Was counting that as a loss midway
Frosty warming up....
Was counting that as a loss midway
Frosty warming up....
Has Diaz been stopped in the UFC?
modogg
Footballguy
Sweet, I'll take Diaz stoppage +630
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
espn insider props I like that Kearse over 9.5 1st receptions its 12.5 at some places and 9.5 at some
Prop bets
Click here for a full listing of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook's Super Bowl XLIX prop bets.
John Parolin's picks
Brandon Bolden rush yards on first attempt: 0.5 (Over: EVEN, Under: -120)
There are a few factors to consider here. No rushes equals "under," which has happened in nine of the team's 18 games this season (including the playoffs). These can be split in a few ways --Stevan Ridley was lost for the year after Week 6 (rushes in four of 12 games), but Bolden has also received multiple rushes in three of his team's past four games.
Though the bet appears on the surface to be a "will he or won't he get a rush," it's worth noting that nine of Bolden's 31 rushes did not gain a yard (29 percent). Figuring out which of the three splits above is most applicable is difficult to do, but applying the 71 percent success rate to all three helps illustrate his chances. Using the post-Ridley split (four of 12 games with a rush) is a definitive under bet (less than 23 percent chance). Using his even 9-9 split gets a 36 percent chance, and using his three of the past four is only barely above half (53 percent). Bolden's inconsistent playing time makes the under the play.
More from ESPN.comFor full betting coverage and expert Vegas analysis of the 2015 Super Bowl between the Seahawks and Patriots, check out ESPN Chalk.
The play: Under
Longest TD of game (includes all returns): 44.5 (O/U -110)
Neither defense is susceptible to the big play. The Seahawks and Patriots both gave up one touchdown from scrimmage of at least 45 yards this season, and the Patriots had one punt return touchdown that was at least 45 yards (no kick returns; Seattle had neither). The Seahawks had one defensive touchdown of at least 45 yards this year (Bruce Irvin interception against the Rams). Given that neither return game is particularly explosive and both teams prioritize limiting the big play, an under seems like the best call in a pick-'em situation.
The play: Under
Distance of first Tom Brady TD pass: 9.5 yards (O/U -110, if no TD pass all bets refunded)
Brady has thrown an NFL-record 49 postseason touchdown passes. Of those 49, 33 were gains of 9 yards or fewer (67 percent), an excellent basis for the under here. Including the playoffs, the Seahawks allowed 20 touchdowns this season, 14 of which were 9-yard gains or shorter (70 percent). This is a defense that limits intermediate-to-long pass plays against an offense that specializes in short timing routes -- given that Brady not throwing a TD means the bets are refunded, this one looks pretty good.
The play: Under
Will the Seahawks get a rushing touchdown? (Yes -220, No +190)
The Seahawks have scored a rushing touchdown in 27 of 37 games (73 percent) over the past two seasons (including playoffs), close enough to the lines given that there's not a ton of value there either way. That is, until you look at the Patriots' rush defense, which has allowed touchdowns in only seven of 18 games this season. Seattle's zone-read rushing game has resulted in five touchdowns for Wilson this season, but the Patriots limit that better than most. New England has forced the quarterback to hand off on 92 percent of zone-read plays, third highest in the league. A single Wilson zone-read touchdown was the difference between "yes" and "no" for five of the 27 successes above, creating some value here. Chances are still good that Beast Mode will find the end zone, but the odds for "no" are too good for the intrepid gambler to pass up.
The play: No
Which team will score last in the first half? (Patriots/Seahawks -110)
The Patriots had a plus-79 point margin in the second quarter this season (best in the league), while Seattle's plus-24 tied for ninth. For as good as Seattle's defense has been this season, it hasn't been invincible in the second quarter (100 points, 12th in NFL). The Patriots have scored the most points in the league in the last four minutes and the last two minutes of the first half, with a plus-32 point margin in the two-minute drill that almost doubles up Seattle's plus-17. In a pick-'em, the numbers favor New England.
The play: Patriots
Will Tom Brady's first pass be complete (-180) or incomplete (+160)?
It's tempting to just look at Brady's overall 64.1 completion percentage here and say there's no value to be had, but it's more applicable to look at Brady's first pass in his 18 games this season given how they're a little more likely to have been planned than his average pass. Brady completed 14 of his first 18 passes this season (78 percent), a better number than the minus-180 odds would suggest.
The play: Complete
Will the first kickoff result in a touchback?
Stephen Gostkowski: Yes -140, No +120
Steven Hauschka: Yes -165, No +145
Overall, Gostkowski kicked touchbacks on almost half (57 of 113) his kickoffs this year, but New England played plenty of games in less than ideal conditions. Gostkowski's kickoffs had returns on 21 of 30 tries when the weather was 40 degrees or below, an environment unlikely to be replicated in Arizona on Sunday. Gostkowski induced touchbacks on 61 percent of kickoffs when the weather was above both 50 and 60 degrees, making "yes" at minus-140 the better play than "no" at plus-120.
Hauschka had touchbacks on 52 percent of his kickoffs this year, slightly above Gostkowski, but Hauschka has way more of a track record at University of Phoenix Stadium. Hauschka has kicked touchbacks on 13 of 23 (56.5 percent) kickoffs since 2011 playing in Arizona, giving a slight edge to "no" at plus-145.
The play: Gostkowski, yes; Hauschka, no
Team to have the first penalty (declined penalties do not count): Patriots (EVEN), Seahawks (-120)
The Seahawks had 32 penalties enforced in the first quarter this season, tied for the second most of any team in the league. The Patriots had 21 first-quarter penalties, 12th fewest. Given the Seahawks accounted for 60 percent of the teams' first-quarter penalties, a minus-120 line offers a little more value than the even odds on the Patriots. Seattle's plus-15 penalty margin in the first quarter reinforces that bet compared with New England's even first-quarter penalty margin.
The play: Seahawks
Distance of first Jermaine Kearse reception: 9.5 (O/U -110, no reception = "under")
Kearse has had a catch in 17 of 18 games, so the "under via no reception" win is only a small consideration here. Kearse recorded 9 yards or fewer on 20 of 42 receptions this year and at least 10 yards on the other 22. Added value comes when looking at Kearse's target distribution and hypothesizing New England's coverage plan. Over half (53 percent) of Kearse's targets come at least 10 yards downfield, putting him over without a single yard after the catch (he averages 6.7 YAC per reception). That, combined with the assumption that the Patriots use Revis on Doug Baldwin (leaving Kyle Arrington for Kearse), means Kearse is better than 50-50 to have a 10-yard catch.
The play: Over
Brandon LaFell: 50.5 receiving yards (O/U -110)
Removing the first few weeks of the season is important when looking at a LaFell bet, as he didn't really earn Brady's trust until Week 4 against the Chiefs according to the quarterback himself. So why in a pick-'em is the suggested bet an "under" for LaFell, who went over in 11 of 15 games since Week 4? Because 103 of LaFell's 116 targets came when LaFell lined up as a perimeter wide receiver, which is where the Seahawks' defense did its best work. Seattle's defense held perimeter wide receivers to 1,219 yards this season, lowest of any team in the league. The Seahawks allowed 97 fewer yards than the Broncos, who held LaFell to four receptions for 39 yards in Week 9. Seattle's defense was the only unit in the league to allow fewer than 1,000 yards outside the numbers (990), and LaFell's game plays directly to their strength.
The play: Under
Dave Tuley's picks
Props are called "the game within the game," and last year we had a lot of success tying our plays to our overall game pick on the Seahawks. So that's what I'm looking to do again, though I'll start with a prop tied to the expectation of it being a close game.
Double result of first-half result/game winner: This is the first prop bet I made last week. I took "Halftime tie/Seahawks win" and "Halftime tie/Patriots win" each for $100 at 15-1 at William Hill (it's also offered at the Westgate SuperBook at 15-1, and I've seen it lower elsewhere). Basically, I'm cheering for a halftime tie, and then I'll be guaranteed of cashing for $1,600 (7-1 on overall wager). With the game line and first-half line around pick-'em, I love those odds that I'm getting in a game that could see the teams trading scores. If a book was making odds on a halftime score, I believe 10-10 would be the favorite and other tied scores would be low prices, as well. I cashed this bet in 2005 when the Patriots and Eagles played to a 7-7 halftime tie. I've lost a few since then, but still ahead overall on this wager and believe this is a good spot to jump back in.
Russell Wilson longest rush OVER 14.5 yards (O/U -110): I cashed with this last year (it was O/U 11.5 yards and Wilson had a 16-yard run) and he relies even more on the read-option now, as well as the chance to scramble for big gains. The Patriots have faced very few QBs with the ability to run, the most mobile probably being Aaron Rodgers, and he had a 17-yard run against them in Week 13.
Behind the Bets
Chad Millman and Bob Scucci examine the lines for Super Bowl XLIX, check out some of the best prop bets for the game and much more.
More Podcasts »
LeGarrette Blount rushing yards UNDER 61.5 (O/U -110): The Patriots have been more balanced at times, but I believe that they'll be forced to abandon the running game at some point. I've considered other props such as Blount under 14 carries or even taking Brady over some of his individual props, but this one makes the most sense to me as far as Seattle shutting down the running game.
Most penalty yards by Seahawks (-150): It was only minus-120 last year, but I also like it a lot more this year. This might sound counterintuitive, but I expect the Seahawks to "lose" this stat and have more penalty yards because that's how they play (as they led the league in penalty yards again this year). They're going to be manhandling the New England receivers and trying to get away with everything they can, and they'll be willing to trade some penalty yards for tighter coverage overall. And it seems far more likely for the Patriots' receivers to benefit from a long pass-interference penalty.
Shortest TD of the game UNDER 1.5 yards (-120): This is a short favorite at minus-120, but I like this prop as it can cash if a team is pounding the ball with the run and gets inside the 1-yard line (like the Seahawks are wont to do) or if a pass-interference penalty in the end zone places the ball at the 1-yard line (kind of correlated to previous prop). It also cashes with a defensive fumble recovery in the end zone.
Total number of different players to have a passing attempt OVER 2.5 (+280): This is usually a sucker bet (and I know I'm down lifetime on this Super Bowl prop), but I really believe it's worth a shot in this matchup at plus-280 for more than two players to throw a pass. We obviously get the QB from each team, so we need just one more pass from a backup QB or any other player. It sounds easy, but usually doesn't happen; however, in this year's playoffs, we've already seen New England wide receiver Julian Edelman throw a TD after taking a lateral from Brady and Seattle punter Jon Ryan throw a TD pass on a fake field goal. With these two risk-taking coaches, I really think we'll see some "trickeration" at some point in this game.
Seahawks minus-48.5 rush yards over Patriots (O/U -110):
Quite simply, I expect the Seahawks to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. The Patriots have a weakness in stopping the run, while the Seahawks are the best running team in the NFL. Meanwhile, the game plan for the Patriots will most likely not emphasis the run and I expect more of a box score like their playoff game against theBaltimore Ravens. The Patriots ran the ball just 13 times in that game, while being outrushed 136 yards to 14.
Tom Brady OVER 37.5 pass attempts (O/U -110):
Brady averaged 38 pass attempts per game in the regular season, throwing out their final game against the Buffalo Bills. In addition, he attempted 50 passes against the Ravens in their playoff game. I expect the Patriots to use a spread, up-tempo, quick-hitting passing game.Peyton Manning attempted 49 passes in last year's Super Bowl loss.
Longest field goal UNDER 44.5 yards (Over -130, Under +110)
In his career, Gostkowski has kicked 244 field goals with 48 of them coming at 45 yards or longer -- that's just 19.6 percent of his attempts. His average field goal made is from a distance of 34.3 yards. Seattle's Hauschka has kicked 24 career field goals of 45-plus yards out of 130 total (18.5 percent). His average made field goal is 35.5 yards. So why do we feel that there's much of a chance of a 45-plus-yard field goal in this game? Out of 48 Super Bowls, there have been only 13 games with field goals of over 45 yards (27.1 percent). Fair odds on a 27.1 percent bet are minus-270. But has this changed recently?
With the recent rule changes that favor offense, this percentage has actually decreased. Over the past 10 Super Bowls, only two have seen a field goal made at 45 yards or longer. Since Super Bowl XLI, seven of eight Super Bowls have had the longest field goal come in under 45 yards. So, we have kickers who kick 45-plus-yard field goals less than 20 percent of the time and a Super Bowl history that shows this rarely happens. Take the under on this prop.
Prop bets
Click here for a full listing of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook's Super Bowl XLIX prop bets.
John Parolin's picks
Brandon Bolden rush yards on first attempt: 0.5 (Over: EVEN, Under: -120)
There are a few factors to consider here. No rushes equals "under," which has happened in nine of the team's 18 games this season (including the playoffs). These can be split in a few ways --Stevan Ridley was lost for the year after Week 6 (rushes in four of 12 games), but Bolden has also received multiple rushes in three of his team's past four games.
Though the bet appears on the surface to be a "will he or won't he get a rush," it's worth noting that nine of Bolden's 31 rushes did not gain a yard (29 percent). Figuring out which of the three splits above is most applicable is difficult to do, but applying the 71 percent success rate to all three helps illustrate his chances. Using the post-Ridley split (four of 12 games with a rush) is a definitive under bet (less than 23 percent chance). Using his even 9-9 split gets a 36 percent chance, and using his three of the past four is only barely above half (53 percent). Bolden's inconsistent playing time makes the under the play.
More from ESPN.comFor full betting coverage and expert Vegas analysis of the 2015 Super Bowl between the Seahawks and Patriots, check out ESPN Chalk.
The play: Under
Longest TD of game (includes all returns): 44.5 (O/U -110)
Neither defense is susceptible to the big play. The Seahawks and Patriots both gave up one touchdown from scrimmage of at least 45 yards this season, and the Patriots had one punt return touchdown that was at least 45 yards (no kick returns; Seattle had neither). The Seahawks had one defensive touchdown of at least 45 yards this year (Bruce Irvin interception against the Rams). Given that neither return game is particularly explosive and both teams prioritize limiting the big play, an under seems like the best call in a pick-'em situation.
The play: Under
Distance of first Tom Brady TD pass: 9.5 yards (O/U -110, if no TD pass all bets refunded)
Brady has thrown an NFL-record 49 postseason touchdown passes. Of those 49, 33 were gains of 9 yards or fewer (67 percent), an excellent basis for the under here. Including the playoffs, the Seahawks allowed 20 touchdowns this season, 14 of which were 9-yard gains or shorter (70 percent). This is a defense that limits intermediate-to-long pass plays against an offense that specializes in short timing routes -- given that Brady not throwing a TD means the bets are refunded, this one looks pretty good.
The play: Under
Will the Seahawks get a rushing touchdown? (Yes -220, No +190)
The Seahawks have scored a rushing touchdown in 27 of 37 games (73 percent) over the past two seasons (including playoffs), close enough to the lines given that there's not a ton of value there either way. That is, until you look at the Patriots' rush defense, which has allowed touchdowns in only seven of 18 games this season. Seattle's zone-read rushing game has resulted in five touchdowns for Wilson this season, but the Patriots limit that better than most. New England has forced the quarterback to hand off on 92 percent of zone-read plays, third highest in the league. A single Wilson zone-read touchdown was the difference between "yes" and "no" for five of the 27 successes above, creating some value here. Chances are still good that Beast Mode will find the end zone, but the odds for "no" are too good for the intrepid gambler to pass up.
The play: No
Which team will score last in the first half? (Patriots/Seahawks -110)
The Patriots had a plus-79 point margin in the second quarter this season (best in the league), while Seattle's plus-24 tied for ninth. For as good as Seattle's defense has been this season, it hasn't been invincible in the second quarter (100 points, 12th in NFL). The Patriots have scored the most points in the league in the last four minutes and the last two minutes of the first half, with a plus-32 point margin in the two-minute drill that almost doubles up Seattle's plus-17. In a pick-'em, the numbers favor New England.
The play: Patriots
Will Tom Brady's first pass be complete (-180) or incomplete (+160)?
It's tempting to just look at Brady's overall 64.1 completion percentage here and say there's no value to be had, but it's more applicable to look at Brady's first pass in his 18 games this season given how they're a little more likely to have been planned than his average pass. Brady completed 14 of his first 18 passes this season (78 percent), a better number than the minus-180 odds would suggest.
The play: Complete
Will the first kickoff result in a touchback?
Stephen Gostkowski: Yes -140, No +120
Steven Hauschka: Yes -165, No +145
Overall, Gostkowski kicked touchbacks on almost half (57 of 113) his kickoffs this year, but New England played plenty of games in less than ideal conditions. Gostkowski's kickoffs had returns on 21 of 30 tries when the weather was 40 degrees or below, an environment unlikely to be replicated in Arizona on Sunday. Gostkowski induced touchbacks on 61 percent of kickoffs when the weather was above both 50 and 60 degrees, making "yes" at minus-140 the better play than "no" at plus-120.
Hauschka had touchbacks on 52 percent of his kickoffs this year, slightly above Gostkowski, but Hauschka has way more of a track record at University of Phoenix Stadium. Hauschka has kicked touchbacks on 13 of 23 (56.5 percent) kickoffs since 2011 playing in Arizona, giving a slight edge to "no" at plus-145.
The play: Gostkowski, yes; Hauschka, no
Team to have the first penalty (declined penalties do not count): Patriots (EVEN), Seahawks (-120)
The Seahawks had 32 penalties enforced in the first quarter this season, tied for the second most of any team in the league. The Patriots had 21 first-quarter penalties, 12th fewest. Given the Seahawks accounted for 60 percent of the teams' first-quarter penalties, a minus-120 line offers a little more value than the even odds on the Patriots. Seattle's plus-15 penalty margin in the first quarter reinforces that bet compared with New England's even first-quarter penalty margin.
The play: Seahawks
Distance of first Jermaine Kearse reception: 9.5 (O/U -110, no reception = "under")
Kearse has had a catch in 17 of 18 games, so the "under via no reception" win is only a small consideration here. Kearse recorded 9 yards or fewer on 20 of 42 receptions this year and at least 10 yards on the other 22. Added value comes when looking at Kearse's target distribution and hypothesizing New England's coverage plan. Over half (53 percent) of Kearse's targets come at least 10 yards downfield, putting him over without a single yard after the catch (he averages 6.7 YAC per reception). That, combined with the assumption that the Patriots use Revis on Doug Baldwin (leaving Kyle Arrington for Kearse), means Kearse is better than 50-50 to have a 10-yard catch.
The play: Over
Brandon LaFell: 50.5 receiving yards (O/U -110)
Removing the first few weeks of the season is important when looking at a LaFell bet, as he didn't really earn Brady's trust until Week 4 against the Chiefs according to the quarterback himself. So why in a pick-'em is the suggested bet an "under" for LaFell, who went over in 11 of 15 games since Week 4? Because 103 of LaFell's 116 targets came when LaFell lined up as a perimeter wide receiver, which is where the Seahawks' defense did its best work. Seattle's defense held perimeter wide receivers to 1,219 yards this season, lowest of any team in the league. The Seahawks allowed 97 fewer yards than the Broncos, who held LaFell to four receptions for 39 yards in Week 9. Seattle's defense was the only unit in the league to allow fewer than 1,000 yards outside the numbers (990), and LaFell's game plays directly to their strength.
The play: Under
Dave Tuley's picks
Props are called "the game within the game," and last year we had a lot of success tying our plays to our overall game pick on the Seahawks. So that's what I'm looking to do again, though I'll start with a prop tied to the expectation of it being a close game.
Double result of first-half result/game winner: This is the first prop bet I made last week. I took "Halftime tie/Seahawks win" and "Halftime tie/Patriots win" each for $100 at 15-1 at William Hill (it's also offered at the Westgate SuperBook at 15-1, and I've seen it lower elsewhere). Basically, I'm cheering for a halftime tie, and then I'll be guaranteed of cashing for $1,600 (7-1 on overall wager). With the game line and first-half line around pick-'em, I love those odds that I'm getting in a game that could see the teams trading scores. If a book was making odds on a halftime score, I believe 10-10 would be the favorite and other tied scores would be low prices, as well. I cashed this bet in 2005 when the Patriots and Eagles played to a 7-7 halftime tie. I've lost a few since then, but still ahead overall on this wager and believe this is a good spot to jump back in.
Russell Wilson longest rush OVER 14.5 yards (O/U -110): I cashed with this last year (it was O/U 11.5 yards and Wilson had a 16-yard run) and he relies even more on the read-option now, as well as the chance to scramble for big gains. The Patriots have faced very few QBs with the ability to run, the most mobile probably being Aaron Rodgers, and he had a 17-yard run against them in Week 13.
Behind the Bets
Chad Millman and Bob Scucci examine the lines for Super Bowl XLIX, check out some of the best prop bets for the game and much more.
More Podcasts »
LeGarrette Blount rushing yards UNDER 61.5 (O/U -110): The Patriots have been more balanced at times, but I believe that they'll be forced to abandon the running game at some point. I've considered other props such as Blount under 14 carries or even taking Brady over some of his individual props, but this one makes the most sense to me as far as Seattle shutting down the running game.
Most penalty yards by Seahawks (-150): It was only minus-120 last year, but I also like it a lot more this year. This might sound counterintuitive, but I expect the Seahawks to "lose" this stat and have more penalty yards because that's how they play (as they led the league in penalty yards again this year). They're going to be manhandling the New England receivers and trying to get away with everything they can, and they'll be willing to trade some penalty yards for tighter coverage overall. And it seems far more likely for the Patriots' receivers to benefit from a long pass-interference penalty.
Shortest TD of the game UNDER 1.5 yards (-120): This is a short favorite at minus-120, but I like this prop as it can cash if a team is pounding the ball with the run and gets inside the 1-yard line (like the Seahawks are wont to do) or if a pass-interference penalty in the end zone places the ball at the 1-yard line (kind of correlated to previous prop). It also cashes with a defensive fumble recovery in the end zone.
Total number of different players to have a passing attempt OVER 2.5 (+280): This is usually a sucker bet (and I know I'm down lifetime on this Super Bowl prop), but I really believe it's worth a shot in this matchup at plus-280 for more than two players to throw a pass. We obviously get the QB from each team, so we need just one more pass from a backup QB or any other player. It sounds easy, but usually doesn't happen; however, in this year's playoffs, we've already seen New England wide receiver Julian Edelman throw a TD after taking a lateral from Brady and Seattle punter Jon Ryan throw a TD pass on a fake field goal. With these two risk-taking coaches, I really think we'll see some "trickeration" at some point in this game.
Erin Rynning's pickSeahawks minus-48.5 rush yards over Patriots (O/U -110):
Quite simply, I expect the Seahawks to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. The Patriots have a weakness in stopping the run, while the Seahawks are the best running team in the NFL. Meanwhile, the game plan for the Patriots will most likely not emphasis the run and I expect more of a box score like their playoff game against theBaltimore Ravens. The Patriots ran the ball just 13 times in that game, while being outrushed 136 yards to 14.
Tom Brady OVER 37.5 pass attempts (O/U -110):
Brady averaged 38 pass attempts per game in the regular season, throwing out their final game against the Buffalo Bills. In addition, he attempted 50 passes against the Ravens in their playoff game. I expect the Patriots to use a spread, up-tempo, quick-hitting passing game.Peyton Manning attempted 49 passes in last year's Super Bowl loss.
Wunderdog's pickLongest field goal UNDER 44.5 yards (Over -130, Under +110)
In his career, Gostkowski has kicked 244 field goals with 48 of them coming at 45 yards or longer -- that's just 19.6 percent of his attempts. His average field goal made is from a distance of 34.3 yards. Seattle's Hauschka has kicked 24 career field goals of 45-plus yards out of 130 total (18.5 percent). His average made field goal is 35.5 yards. So why do we feel that there's much of a chance of a 45-plus-yard field goal in this game? Out of 48 Super Bowls, there have been only 13 games with field goals of over 45 yards (27.1 percent). Fair odds on a 27.1 percent bet are minus-270. But has this changed recently?
With the recent rule changes that favor offense, this percentage has actually decreased. Over the past 10 Super Bowls, only two have seen a field goal made at 45 yards or longer. Since Super Bowl XLI, seven of eight Super Bowls have had the longest field goal come in under 45 yards. So, we have kickers who kick 45-plus-yard field goals less than 20 percent of the time and a Super Bowl history that shows this rarely happens. Take the under on this prop.
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Billy Bats
Footballguy
OBJ named offensive ROY.
From the score:
Odell Beckham Jr. named Offensive Rookie of the Year
Jan 31 2015, 8:18 PMMichael Amato
New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has captured the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
It would have been difficult to deny Beckham the honor after his stellar performance in just 12 games.
The rookie exploded for 91 catches, 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns, despite missing four contests due to injury.
Beckham also did it in style, making several catches that will be replayed on highlight reels for years to come.
From the score:
Odell Beckham Jr. named Offensive Rookie of the Year
Jan 31 2015, 8:18 PMMichael Amato
New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has captured the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
It would have been difficult to deny Beckham the honor after his stellar performance in just 12 games.
The rookie exploded for 91 catches, 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns, despite missing four contests due to injury.
Beckham also did it in style, making several catches that will be replayed on highlight reels for years to come.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Murray named offensive player of the year:
DeMarco Murray nabs Offensive Player of the Year Award
Jan 31 2015, 8:25 PMMichael Amato
Several players were worthy of the Offensive Player of the Year Award this season, but DeMarco Murray stood out from the crowd.
The Dallas Cowboys running back claimed the distinction after running for 1,845 yards on a whopping 392 carries. He also tallied 13 touchdowns.
Murray was the backbone of the Cowboys this season, helping them to their first playoff berth since 2009.
DeMarco Murray nabs Offensive Player of the Year Award
Jan 31 2015, 8:25 PMMichael Amato
Several players were worthy of the Offensive Player of the Year Award this season, but DeMarco Murray stood out from the crowd.
The Dallas Cowboys running back claimed the distinction after running for 1,845 yards on a whopping 392 carries. He also tallied 13 touchdowns.
Murray was the backbone of the Cowboys this season, helping them to their first playoff berth since 2009.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Me neither, as shown by my loss of free bet on Bonny.
It's all good, positive momentum into booking a gazillion bets tomorrow.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
OROY and DROY swing and a miss miss miss miss miss miss <_<
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
7-3 frosty?
well done
well done
Frostillicus
Footballguy
facook
Footballguy
got_nugs
Footballguy
not impressed. wanted that Kansas game. kinda blame you for not seeing those missed free throws, banks-open 3s.
Also, I don't want anything bad to happen to Heather Cox but I hope she gets hit by a train.
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
17.5 is too many points to give a great defensive team like Memphis right? Right.
Memphis +17.5
Memphis +17.5
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Also I tossed a couple bucks on Wiggins leading scorer tonight at 50/1. He has 23 at half. Let's do this.
